nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2021‒04‒26
thirteen papers chosen by
Maksym Obrizan
Kyiv School of Economics

  1. Regional convergence in CEE before and after the Global Financial Crisis By Smirnykh, Larisa; Wörgötter, Andreas
  2. Gender Preferences in Central and Eastern Europe as Reflected in Partnership and Fertility Outcomes By Myck, Michal; Oczkowska, Monika; Wowczko, Izabela
  3. Electricity poverty reduction as an indicator of progress towards the Sustainable Development Goal 7: Vietnam, 2008-2018. By Minh Ha-Duong; Nguyen Son
  4. Candidate Filtering: The Strategic Use of Electoral Fraud in Russia By David Szakonyi
  5. Determinants of country risk premium revisit: Evidence for emerging market and developing economies By Taguchi, Hiroyuki
  6. Deindustrialization and the Postsocialist Mortality Crisis By Scheiring, Gábor; Azarova, Aytalina; Irdam, Darja; Doniec, Katarzyna Julia; McKee, Martin; Stuckler, David; King, Lawrence
  7. Who cares about sanctions? Observations from annual reports of European firms By Davydov, Denis; Sihvonen, Jukka; Solanko, Laura
  8. Perception of Institutional Quality Difference and Return Migration Intention: The Case of the Vietnamese Diaspora By Ngoc Thi Minh Tran; Michael P. Cameron; Jacques Poot
  9. Distressed Acquisitions Evidence from European Emerging Markets By Iwasaki, Ichiro; Kočenda, Evžen; Shida, Yoshisada
  10. European farmers’ responses to higher commodity prices: cropland expansion or forestlands preservation? By Chouaib Jouf; Laté Lawson
  11. The Effect of Child Benefits on Financial Difficulties and Spending Habits: Evidence from Poland's Family 500+ Program By Milovanska-Farrington, Stefani
  12. Labour mobility in transnational Europe: between depletion, mitigation and citizenship entitlements harm By Plomien, Ania; Schwartz, G
  13. Joining the European Union as an advantage in science performativity. A quasi-experimental study By Giulio Marini

  1. By: Smirnykh, Larisa; Wörgötter, Andreas
    Abstract: In this study we analyze the convergence of GDP per capita from 2000 to2013 (current prices and euro exchange rates) for eight countries (Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Hungary, Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) of the European Union (CEE8). Some convergence indicators are also calculated for the CEE8 as a whole. The main purpose of this study is to shed some light on the impact of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) on regional convergence in advanced emerging countries, like the CEE8. The main result of random effects panel regressions for unconditional beta-convergence is that significant convergence is found for the whole period from 2000-2013, but not for sub-periods on either end of the sample, except for Hungary and Poland. This means, that convergence in most CEECs is only significant if the GFC is included in the estimation period. The role of capital regions for the convergence process is an item for future research.
    Date: 2021
  2. By: Myck, Michal (Centre for Economic Analysis, CenEA); Oczkowska, Monika (Centre for Economic Analysis, CenEA); Wowczko, Izabela (Centre for Economic Analysis, CenEA)
    Abstract: The decisions of parents following the birth of their first child concerning subsequent fertility, and the stability of their relationship can be used as a reflection of broader gender preferences. We study these decisions to identify gender preferences in six Central and Eastern European countries, which vary with respect to their current political and economic conditions, but share a common experience of past communist rule. Using subsamples of census data collected in the IPUMS-International inventory around 2000 and 2010, we examine the effect of the gender of the first-born child(ren) on the fertility and relationship stability of their parents. Only in the case of Romania do our results consistently point towards boy preferences, while in Russia boy preferences can be detected in families with two or more children. Importantly, in four out of six countries (Belarus, Poland, Russia and Ukraine) parents are more likely to have a second child if the first-born was a boy, indicating girl preferences. These preferences could be interpreted as a reflection of concern regarding future care support for parents.
    Keywords: gender preferences, fertility, family structure, transition countries
    JEL: J13 J16
    Date: 2021–04
  3. By: Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Université Paris-Saclay - AgroParisTech - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Nguyen Son (NEU - National Economics University (Ha Noi, Vietnam), ABIES Doctoral School - ABIES Doctoral School)
    Abstract: We estimate the reduction of electricity poverty in Vietnam from 2008 to 2018 using national household surveys. We find that in 2018, the fraction of households with access to electricity was over 98% (up from 96.5% in 2010). The median level of electricity usage was 139 kWh per month per household (up from 74 kWh in 2010), enough to access high power appliances like a washing machine or microwave. The electricity bill weighted less than 6% of income for 92.1% of households (down from 97.7% in 2010). In statistical terms, the electricity consumption distribution was closer to uniform than the income distribution: energy inequality is lower than income inequality. In 2014, the fraction of households declaring unsatisfied electricity needs was below three per cent. Few households cannot afford to turn on fans or air conditioner during a heatwave. The engineering, economic and socio-political perspectives converge to indicate that electricity poverty was not an acute social issue in 2018. Vietnam has mostly satisfied the universal electricity access facet of the Sustainable Development Goal 7: Affordable and clean energy for all (SDG7). The electricity subsidy mechanism contributes more to alleviating poverty (SDG1) than to SDG7
    Keywords: Electricity poverty,Vietnam,Sustainable Development Goals,Indicators Q41,Q48,Q56
    Date: 2021–03–19
  4. By: David Szakonyi (George Washington University)
    Abstract: Incumbents have many tools to tip elections in their favor, yet we know little about how they choose between strategies. By comparing various tactics, this paper argues that electoral malpractice centered on manipulating institutions offers the greatest effectiveness while shielding incumbents from public anger and criminal prosecution. To demonstrate this, I focus on one widespread institutional tactic: preventing candidates from accessing the ballot. First, in survey experiments, Russian voters respond less negatively to institutional manipulations, such as rejecting candidates, than to blatant fraud, such as ballot-box stuffing. Next, using evidence from 25,935 Russian mayoral races, I show that lower societal and implementation costs enable incumbents to strategically reject candidacies from credible challengers and then reduce their electoral vulnerability. In all, the technology behind specific manipulations helps determine when and how incumbents violate electoral integrity.
    Keywords: electoral fraud, authoritarianism, Russia, public opinion
    JEL: D7 H40
    Date: 2020
  5. By: Taguchi, Hiroyuki
    Abstract: This paper aims to revisit the issue on the determinants of the country risk premium for emerging market and developing economies to enrich its empirical evidence. The major contributions of this study to the existing literature are: to sample the majority of emerging market and developing economies by estimating the country risk premium, to focus on the domestic fundamentals rather than the world market factors by targeting the period after the 2000s, and to screen the determinants by the causality check between the country risk premium and its supposed determinants in a vector-autoregressive model framework considering their endogeneity problem. The empirical analyses finally identified the factors of the inflation, the external debt, the public debt and the foreign reserves as the determinants of the country risk premium.
    Keywords: country risk premium, emerging market and developing economies, fundamentals, causality, vector-autoregressive model
    JEL: F34 F41
    Date: 2021–03
  6. By: Scheiring, Gábor (Bocconi University); Azarova, Aytalina; Irdam, Darja; Doniec, Katarzyna Julia (University of Cambridge); McKee, Martin; Stuckler, David; King, Lawrence
    Abstract: An unprecedented mortality crisis struck Eastern Europe during the transition from socialism to capitalism. Working-class men without a college degree suffered the most. Some argue that economic dislocation caused stress and despair, leading to adverse health behavior and ill health (dislocation-despair approach). Others suggest that hazardous drinking inherited as part of a dysfunctional working-class culture and populist alcohol policy were the key determinants (supply-culture approach). We enter this debate by performing the first quantitative analysis of the association between economic dislocation in the form of industrial employment decline and mortality in postsocialist Eastern Europe. We rely on a novel multilevel dataset, fitting survival and panel models covering 52 towns and 42,800 people in 1989-1995 in Hungary and 514 medium-sized towns in the European part of Russia. The results show that deindustrialization was significantly associated with male mortality in both countries directly and indirectly mediated by adverse health behavior as a dysfunctional coping strategy. Both countries experienced severe deindustrialization, but social and economic policies seem to have offset Hungary’s more immense industrial employment loss. The policy implication is that social and economic policies addressing the underlying causes of stress and despair can improve health.
    Date: 2021–04–10
  7. By: Davydov, Denis; Sihvonen, Jukka; Solanko, Laura
    Abstract: This paper uses textual analysis to examine how European corporations assess sanctions in their annual reports. Using observations from a panel of almost 11,500 corporate annual reports from 2014–2017, we document significant cross-country variation in how firms perceive Russia-related sanctions. Even after controlling for firm-level characteristics, cross-country differences remain for sentiments about sanctions and contexts in which sanctions are mentioned. We also examine the role of macroeconomic linkages in explaining these differences. We show that the Russia’s inward and outward FDI stocks and high levels of imports and exports with Russia only partially explain the cross-country variation, leaving a nontrivial share of variation unexplained.
    JEL: D22 F51
    Date: 2021–04–20
  8. By: Ngoc Thi Minh Tran (University of Waikato and Vietnam National University); Michael P. Cameron (University of Waikato); Jacques Poot (University of Waikato and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)
    Abstract: This study examines whether the perception of difference in institutional quality between OECD destination countries and Vietnam, and the stated importance attached to such difference, influences Vietnamese migrants’ intention to return home. We use data from a web-based survey (N = 159) that we conducted in 2016. The countries covered capture about 90% of the Vietnamese diaspora in the world. We find, by means of weighted logistic regression analysis with a range of measures of institutional quality, that migrants who perceive a larger institutional quality difference are less likely to have the intention to return. However, there is considerable heterogeneity by gender. Women are, if they attach importance to institutional quality, particularly concerned about control of corruption, while the between-country difference in government effectiveness and regulatory quality matters to men. Concerns about a lack of voice & accountability; and about political instability & the presence of violence/terrorism deter return migration of both genders.
    Keywords: Return migration intention, institutional quality, perception, heterogeneity, Vietnam
    JEL: F22 O15
    Date: 2021–04
  9. By: Iwasaki, Ichiro; Kočenda, Evžen; Shida, Yoshisada
    Abstract: We analyze factors behind 23,213 distressed acquisitions in European emerging markets from 2007–2019. Besides the impact of financial ratios, legal form, ownership structure, firm size, and age, we emphasize the role of institutions and channels of their propagation. We show that the quality and enforcement of insolvency laws are linked with the lower probability of distressed acquisitions, followed by corruption control and progress in banking reforms. The impact of institutions is larger in lessadvanced countries as compared to economically stronger ones. The effect of institutions increased after the financial crisis but declined as the economic situation improved.
    Keywords: distressed acquisitions, mergers, European emerging markets
    JEL: C35 D02 D22 E02 G34 K20 L22
    Date: 2021–04
  10. By: Chouaib Jouf; Laté Lawson
    Abstract: This paper analyses the impact of European farmers’ responsiveness to changes in agri-commodities prices on their trade-off between agricultural expansion and forestland preservation. We investigate this issue by estimating a recursive model using a comprehensive dataset of European agricultural holdings over the period 2008-2017, covering 128 regions (26 countries). Our main finding is that there is indeed evidence of such a trade-off. An increase in commodity prices leads to higher cropland profitability, which in turn causes deforestation in the 128 European regions considered. Replicating the analysis on different subsamples confirms the robustness of these findings.
    Keywords: Agricultural commodities prices; Land-use; Cropland; Woodland.
    JEL: Q11 Q18 Q23
    Date: 2021
  11. By: Milovanska-Farrington, Stefani (University of Tampa)
    Abstract: In response to the low fertility rate and high child poverty in Poland, the government implemented the Family 500+ program which provides cash transfers to families with two or more children, and low-income, one-child families. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we explore the causal effect of this policy on expenditure and financial difficulties of beneficiaries relative to non-eligible families. The findings suggest that after the introduction of the program, expenditures on food and cultural activities increased, and the likelihood of experiencing a hardship paying for utilities and medical care declined for the treatment relative to the control group. These results imply a beneficial effect of child benefits on tackling financial difficulties of families with children. From a policy perspective, the findings indicate that cash transfers can alleviate child poverty concerns and financial constraints to having children.
    Keywords: cash benefits, child allowance, expenditures, financial difficulties, poverty
    JEL: I38 D10 P46 J13
    Date: 2021–04
  12. By: Plomien, Ania; Schwartz, G
    Abstract: This article examines how transnational labour mobility in uneven and combined Europe has emerged as a critical response to the problems of capitalist production and social reproduction. Analysing the interconnected mobilities of labour between Ukraine, Poland and the UK in the food production, care provision and housing construction sectors, the article examines how states benefit from lower unemployment and reduced labour shortages, employers profit from qualified and reliable workers, and households gain access to jobs and incomes. It argues that transnational labour mobility is constitutive of the inherently interdependent production–reproduction processes. In this constellation, transnational labour mobility becomes a form of mitigation of depletion through social reproduction. However, it further argues that such a mitigation strategy is unbalanced and unsustainable as its costs and benefits are unequally distributed, forestalling resource inflows that could attenuate outflows. Therefore, harms – in particular, the harm to citizenship entitlements – emerge despite labour mobility mitigating depletion.
    Keywords: citizenship entitlements; depletion; gendered harms; labour mobility; social reproduction
    JEL: R14 J01
    Date: 2020–06–01
  13. By: Giulio Marini (Quantitative Social Science, UCL Social Research Institute, London, UK)
    Abstract: The paper investigates the issue of increasing international co-authored publications, comparing countries that accessed the Europe-an Union (EU) in 2004 (EU04) against other Central-Eastern European Countries (othEast-ERA), adopting a scientometrical approach. This comparison is interesting to check whether to be part of the EU is dif-ferent from being part of the European Research Area (ERA) – being both entities aimed at fostering more international collaborations. The hypothesis is that EU might convey more opportunities for the sake of international publications, although ERA assures access to European funding schemes anyway. Analysing the census of internationally co-authored publications from 1995 to 2015, difference-in-differences regressions show that Countries that joined EU in 2004 performed better than other Central-Eastern ones. Implications for the public policies in science are discussed.
    Keywords: Scientometric; European Research Area, European Union, Funding Agency, Central Eastern Europe, international collaborations; difference-in-difference
    JEL: C55 C81 I23 O32 O35 O36 O38
    Date: 2021–04–01

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