nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2021‒01‒11
eleven papers chosen by
Maksym Obrizan
Kyiv School of Economics

  1. Political conflict, social inequality and electoral cleavages in Central-Eastern Europe, 1990-2018 By Attila Lindner; Filip Novokmet; Thomas Piketty; Tomasz Zawisza
  2. Agricultural transition in Russia, Central Asia, and Eastern Europe: Ten lessons for Venezuela By Brooks, Karen
  3. Phillips curve during the economic cycle in the Czech Republic and Poland in the years 2000 to 2016 By Bo?ena Kade?ábková; Emilie Ja?ová
  4. Child Penalty in Russia: Evidence from an Event Study By Lebedinski, Lara; Perugini, Cristiano; Vladisavljević, Marko
  5. Initial Public Offerings and Corporate Governance in Croatia By Domagoj Hru?ka; Dra?en Milkovi?; Maja Darabo? Longin
  7. Fiscal DSGE Model for Latvia By Ginters Buss; Patrick Gruning
  8. Tax and Own Revenues of Large Cities in the Republic of Croatia By Domagoj Karacic; David Krmpotic; Marija Iles
  9. Unfolding the hidden structure of the Hungarian multi-layer firm network By Andras Borsos; Martin Stancsics
  10. Shock Propagation in the Banking System with Real Economy Feedback By Andras Borsos; Bence Mero
  11. Secular Decline in Public Investment: are National Fiscal Rules to Blame? By Olegs Tkacevs

  1. By: Attila Lindner (UCL - University College of London [London]); Filip Novokmet (University of Bonn, WIL - World Inequality Lab); Thomas Piketty (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, WIL - World Inequality Lab); Tomasz Zawisza (Institute for Fiscal Studies)
    Abstract: This paper analyses the electoral cleavages in three Central European countries countries-the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland-since the fall of communism until today. In all three countries, the left has seen a prolonged decline in support. On the other hand, the "populist" parties increased their support and recently attained power in each country. We relate this to specific trajectories of post-communist transition. Former communist parties in Hungary and Poland transformed themselves into socialdemocratic parties. These parties' pro-market policies prevented them from establishing themselves predominantly among a lower-income electorate. Meanwhile, the liberal right in the Czech Republic and Poland became representative of both high-income and high-educated voters. This has opened up space for populist parties and influenced their character, assuming more 'nativist' outlook in Poland and Hungary and more 'centrist' in the Czech Republic.
    Date: 2020–11
  2. By: Brooks, Karen
    Abstract: Thirty years have elapsed since the fall of communist governments in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union. The collapse of political structures took with it regimes of highly administered management of agri-food systems. The shift from state management to markets has been generally known as the agricultural transition. The term is most frequently used in reference to the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, but key features of a move from dominant state intervention to greater reliance on markets characterized reforms in China after 1978, Vietnam in 1986 and thereafter, and many countries in Africa south of the Sahara during the years of structural adjustment in the 1990s. The policy reforms that constitute an agricultural transition are intrinsically difficult and made even more so when undertaken under conditions of crisis-induced chaos. Lessons from countries that have undergone the process might be of use, either as guidance or cautionary notes, to leaders and civil society groups in countries such as Venezuela that may be embarking on a transition or swept into one by circumstance. The paragraphs below attempt to summarize lessons from the early transition in Russia, Central Asia, and Eastern Europe in the 1990s.
    Keywords: RUSSIAN FEDERATION, EASTERN EUROPE, EUROPE, CENTRAL ASIA, ASIA, VENEZUELA, SOUTH AMERICA, AMERICAS, agriculture, political systems, prices, agrifood systems, consumers, food security, privatization, public investment, agricultural transition, political change, consumer expectations
    Date: 2020
  3. By: Bo?ena Kade?ábková (University of Economics, Prague); Emilie Ja?ová (Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague)
    Abstract: The aim of the research paper is to analyze the development of the Phillips curve and the NAIRU, including the unemployment gaps in the Czech Republic and Poland in individual phases of the economic cycle, when using empirical analysis. According to the analysis, the resulting average value of the negative slope of the PC for the whole observed period in the Czech Republic is -0.19 and in Poland -0.09, which in both countries indicates a very weak intensity of substitutability of the household consumption deflator by unemployment. The resulting long-term NAIRU for the entire period we are monitoring was 6.70% in the Czech Republic and 12.50% in Poland. NAIRU values are affected by unemployment benefits, in the Czech Republic also by the growth of the minimum wage and in Poland by the growth of import prices, including the growth of oil prices. Research also shows expected inflation in both countries.
    Keywords: Unemployment rate by gender, age and education, Phillips curve, long-term NAIRU, phase of the economic cycle, inflation expectations
    JEL: E24 E32 E37
  4. By: Lebedinski, Lara (Institute of Economic Sciences, Belgrade); Perugini, Cristiano (University of Perugia); Vladisavljević, Marko (Institute of Economic Sciences, Belgrade)
    Abstract: Despite years of women's progress toward equality, gender disparities in the labour market persist, and parenthood has been identified as one of its key drivers. In this paper we investigate the child penalty in Russia by using longitudinal data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) and the methodological framework of event studies. Our findings show that five years after child birth women suffer an earnings penalty, while the same effect is not observed for men. The child penalty for women stems from lower employment after birth. In contrast to similar studies on Western European countries and the US, we do not find child penalties in terms of working hours or hourly wage rates. We further find that mothers' employment penalty is strongly driven by household characteristics and by their spouses' beliefs, while their own beliefs and background play no role.
    Keywords: child penalty, Russia, event study, RLMS
    JEL: J16 J13 J31
    Date: 2020–12
  5. By: Domagoj Hru?ka (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb); Dra?en Milkovi? (University Hospital Centre Zagreb); Maja Darabo? Longin (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb)
    Abstract: This paper empirically investigates the performance of Croatian initial public offerings (IPOs) throughout 20 years period. Besides financial benefit in the form of raising capital, IPOs also play a role in an increased public awareness of the company. By proving the comprehensive evaluation of reasons and consequences of IPO initiatives in Croatia we give analytic evidence on the influence of this corporate action on development of corporate governance. Furthermore, the paper discusses relation between internal and external corporate governance mechanisms in companies that initialize entering the financial markets for the first time, providing us with the analytical framework of understanding the impact on IPOs on corporate governance system in transition countries.
    Keywords: Corporate governance, Initial Public Offering, Croatia, Transition Economies
    JEL: G10 G34 M10
  6. By: Joanna Wolszczak-Derlacz (Gdansk University of Technology, Gdansk, Poland)
    Abstract: This study examines the potential effects of China’s “One-Belt One-Road” initiative (OBOR) on trade flows and global value chain connections. The empirical analysis is based on the augmented gravity model of international trade, which comprises 186 reporters and 199 partners in the period 2000-2018. We also estimate the gravity model for involvement in global value chains (domestic and foreign value added in exports and the value contributed by a partner to a reporter’s exports). OBOR proves to be positively correlated with international trade and global value chains (GVC), while some of the corridors seem to be more beneficial than others (e.g. China-Pakistan, China-Mongolia-Russian Federation, and Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar).
    Keywords: One-belt one-road, China, gravity trade models, global value chains
    JEL: F13 F14 C23
    Date: 2020–12
  7. By: Ginters Buss (Latvijas Banka); Patrick Gruning (CEFER, Lietuvos Bankas)
    Abstract: We develop a fiscal dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for policy simulation and scenario analysis purposes tailored to Latvia, a small open economy in a monetary union. The fiscal sector elements comprise government investment, government consumption, government transfers that are asymmetrically directed to both optimizing and hand-to-mouth households, cyclical unemployment benefits, foreign ownership of government debt, import content in public consumption and investment, and fiscal rules for each fiscal instrument. The model features a search-and-matching labour market friction with pro-cyclical labour costs, a financial accelerator mechanism, and import content in final goods. We estimate the model using Latvian data, study the new channels in the model, and provide a comprehensive analysis on the macroeconomic effects of the fiscal elements. A particular finding is that having foreign ownership of government debt generally breaks the Ricardian equivalence paradigm.
    Keywords: small open economy, fiscal policy, fiscal rules, Bayesian estimation
    JEL: E0 E2 E3 F4 H2 H3 H6
    Date: 2020–12–15
  8. By: Domagoj Karacic (Faculty of Economics, Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek); David Krmpotic (Department of Finance and Procurement, City of Osijek); Marija Iles (Faculty of Economics, Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek)
    Abstract: The budget revenues of cities in the last few years have not been constant and are largely dependent on a number of factors such as: uncertain trends in the local and world economy, uneven criteria for urban development and numerous perennial legislative changes. A lot of legal changes have been made in the Republic of Croatia relating to budget planning and defining the sources of financing of cities, moreover, the Personal Income Tax Act has been amended six times in the period from 2014 to 2019, and the Act on the Financing of Local and Regional Self-Government Units has been amended several times, with a new law on local taxes being introduced in 2018. The reasons for numerous legal changes are twofold and partially stem from the adjustment to the relief of the Croatian economy, and partially from the state's efforts to further relieve the tax burden on labour and income taxation. These changes reflected on, and significantly affected, the fiscal capacity of the revenues of large cities. Recommendations are aimed at greater fiscal autonomy of large cities and are aimed at further implementation of fiscal decentralization, especially in the area related to tax revenues.
    Keywords: Large cities, tax revenues, own revenue, fiscal capacity
  9. By: Andras Borsos (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary)); Martin Stancsics (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary))
    Abstract: In this paper we offer an explorative, mainly descriptive analysis about the multi-layered network of Hungarian firms. To conduct this study, we obtained access to firm-level supplier information, on which we could superimpose also the ownership background of all Hungarian companies. Our primary focus was to explore the topological origins of shock propagation phenomena among firms. As both the supplier and the ownership layers are considered to be among the most significant shock-transmitting mediums, our data is ideal to gain insight into previously unobserved structural drivers of spreading processes. We found (i) several topological traits on micro-, meso-, and macro-scale as well, which can be responsible for facilitating contagious processes via supplier links; (ii) we could also identify separated blocks of the economy (representing different production chains) within which shocks can more freely spread in the system; (iii) furthermore, we could assess the significance of economic entities regarding the extent they can influence the economy via their ownership relations.
    Keywords: ownership network, producƟon network, supply chain, spillover, shock propagaƟon, contagion
    JEL: C63 C67 C81 G32 L23
    Date: 2020
  10. By: Andras Borsos (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary)); Bence Mero (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary))
    Abstract: In this paper we develop a model of shock propagation in the banking system with feedback channels towards the real economy. Our framework incorporates the interactions between the network of banks (exhibiting contagion mechanisms among them) and the network of firms (transmitting shocks to each other along the supply chain) which systems are linked together via loan-contracts. Our hypothesis was, that the feedback mechanisms in these coupled networks could amplify the losses in the economy beyond the shortfalls expected when we consider the subsystems in isolation. As a test for this, we embedded the model into a liquidity stress testing framework of the Central Bank of Hungary, and our results proved the importance of the real economy feedback channel, which almost doubled the system-wide losses. To illustrate the versatility of our modeling framework, we presented two further applications for different policy purposes: (i) We elaborated a way to use the model for SIFI identification, (ii) and we showed an example of assessing the impact of shocks originated in the real economy.
    Keywords: systemic risk,financial network, production network, contagion
    JEL: G01 G21 G28 C63
    Date: 2020
  11. By: Olegs Tkacevs (Bank of Latvia)
    Abstract: This study investigates the impact of national fiscal rules on public investment policy. Using data of 35 OECD countries for the period 1995–2015, the paper provides evidence of a negative effect of expenditure rules on the level and share of government investment expenditure in total outlays, particularly in economic affairs. The effect of budget balance rules is less certain and seems to stem from those rules that do not explicitly exclude investment from the assessment. The coefficient estimates however imply a relatively low magnitude of the negative effect of fiscal rules. Overall, our paper suggests that, while loosening fiscal rules will not solve the problem of underinvestment, properly designed rules can help to protect public capital stock to some extent only.
    Keywords: fiscal rules, government expenditure, public investment, panel analysis
    JEL: E62 H50 C23
    Date: 2020–10–06

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