nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2020‒12‒07
eleven papers chosen by
Maksym Obrizan
Kyiv School of Economics

  1. Regional risk-sharing in Ukraine By Fidrmuc, Jarko; Moroz, Serhiy; Reck, Fabian
  3. Social assimilation and labour market outcomes of migrants in China By Cai, Shu; Zimmermann, Klaus F.
  4. Republic Of Moldova And Its Eurasian Track Of Policy: The Impact Of Internal&External Factors On The Foreign Policy Formation By Nicole V. Bodishteanu
  5. THE EFFECT OF HEALTH SHOCKS ON LABOUR MARKET OUTCOMES IN RUSSIA By Ekaterina A. Aleksandrova; Venera I. Bagranova; Christopher J. Gerry
  7. Analysis of Inflation Trends in Urban and Rural Parts of Azerbaijan: Main Drivers and Links to Oil Revenue By Niftiyev, Ibrahim
  8. Decentralisation of collective bargaining: A path to productivity? By Aglio, Daniele; Di Mauro, Filippo
  9. The effect of quotas on female representation in local politics By Köppl-Turyna, Monika; Kantorowicz, Jarosław
  10. Home sweet home: The effects of housing loan subsidies on the housing market in Croatia By Davor Kunovac Author-Name-First: Davor; Ivan Žilić
  11. The Labor Market Situation of Women in the Visegrad Countries By Ewa Cukrowska-Torzewska; Anna Lovasz; Mariann Rigo

  1. By: Fidrmuc, Jarko; Moroz, Serhiy; Reck, Fabian
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the impact of ethnic heterogeneity and military conflict on the degree of regional consumption risk-sharing in Ukraine. Ethnicity and violent conflicts can influence risk-sharing e.g. through social capital, ethnic fractionalization, migration, and remittances. The sample consists of 25 Ukrainian oblasts and covers the highly volatile period from 2003 to 2016. Our results suggest that the degree of consumption risk-sharing is comparably high; between 70 and 80 percent on average. Moreover, consumption risk-sharing is significantly higher in the regions with a large Russian minority, which are enjoying special treatment by Russia. By contrast, the degree of financial development, as proxied by deposit and loan share in GRP, does not significantly affect the regional degree of consumption risk-sharing. Furthermore, we apply spatial models to control for spatial dependence across regions. Results are confirmed and it is shown that spatial correlation is important. Finally, we show that the recent geopolitical conflict in east Ukraine changed the regional degree of consumption risk-sharing.
    JEL: E32 E21 R12 P25
    Date: 2020–11–23
  2. By: Alexandra P. Bocharova (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: State information policy becomes especially important in times of political crises. The government has not only to solve the problem efficiently, but also preserve its positive image for the audience to restore order, retain its legitimacy and prevent citizens from any harmful collective actions. Media as the main link between the state and the citizens become, thus, one of the main means to solve this political crisis. In this study, the author takes the case of Hong Kong protests in summer-fall 2019 as the example of how state media work in order to resolve the crisis. By creating the network of Chinese media with the SNA method, we analyze how government controls the main information flows and what role local prodemocratic Hong Kong newspapers play in the information network of China. The results of the study show the decisive role of state media in creating the information agenda around Hong Kong protests. Moreover, there is close interconnectivity between Hong Kong media and government newspapers and between Hong Kong media and foreign sources of information, which makes local newspapers an important bridge between Eastern and mainland Chinese political views.
    Keywords: SNA, information policy, crisis management, Chinese media, Hong Kong protests
    JEL: D85
    Date: 2020
  3. By: Cai, Shu (Jinan University and Global Labor Organization.); Zimmermann, Klaus F. (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University, CEPR and Global Labor Organization)
    Abstract: Previous research has found identity to be relevant for international migration, but has neglected internal mobility as in the case of the Great Chinese Migration. However, the context of the identities of migrants and their adaption in the migration process is likely to be quite different. The gap is closed by examining social assimilation and the effect on the labourmarket outcomes of migrants in China, the country with the largest record of internal mobility. Using instrumental variable estimation, the study finds that identifying as local residents significantly increase migrants’ hourly wages and reduce hours worked, although their monthly earnings remained barely changed. Further findings suggest that migrants with strong local identity are more likely to use local networks in job search, and to obtain jobs with higher average wages and lower average hours worked per day.
    Keywords: Social assimilation, identity, labour market, migration
    JEL: J22 J31 J61 O15 Z13
    Date: 2020–11–18
  4. By: Nicole V. Bodishteanu (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: In this paper, the author considers the main external and internal factors of the formation of the Eurasian track of the foreign policy of the Republic of Moldova from 2009 to 2020. Among the main internal factors influencing the development of Eurasian track (as opposed to European) of foreign policy, the author singles out: the coming to power of the pro-Russian President I. Dodon in 2016, and the pro-Western contingent of the parliament headed by M. Sandu, who, on the contrary, helps blur this track. Among external factors, the author considers such as: the influence of the Ukrainian crisis on the opinion of citizens of the Republic of Moldova towards Western institutions, and as a result, the growing popularity of the “Russian” foreign policy direction; the current orientation of the economy on the market of the CIS countries; “Soft power” of the Russian Federation, mostly concentrated on a common language (Russian) and cultural values (literature, historical past, etc.); the willingness of Eurasian partners (it is mainly about the Russian Federation, as well as the PRC) to provide assistance in crisis situations at no cost, unlike European and Western institutions, which traditionally indicate a number of democratic transformations in the country as one of the conditions for providing assistance to the recipient. In general, the author comes to the conclusion that the Eurasian track of the foreign policy of the Republic of Moldova is still in its infancy, but it has great potential and promises interesting prospects for a small state with a favorable geographical position and located at the crossroads of the most important transport routes between the West and the East.
    Keywords: Republic of Moldova; Eurasia; foreign policy; Eurasian integration; Russian Federation.
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2020
  5. By: Ekaterina A. Aleksandrova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Venera I. Bagranova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Christopher J. Gerry (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper provides evidence for the effects of health shocks measured by any negative change in self-assessed health (SAH) status on employment, personal income, and wages in the Russian population. We employ the average treatment effect on the treated (ATET) estimator combined with propensity score and nearest neighbour matching and data from Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey-HSE (RLMS-HSE) for 2000–2018. We find that adverse health shocks are associated with a reduction in the probability of remaining employed by 2%, and losses of income and wages of 17% and 11%, respectively. For men the consequences of health shocks are more drastic. Severe health shocks that are measured as a drop in SAH by two or more levels are associated with greater losses: respondents aged 30–45 years old lose approximately 60% of their monthly income for severe shocks, and those aged 46–72 lose 35–45% of their wages and 9–10% in the probability of remaining employed.
    Keywords: health shock, labour market outcomes, matching, difference-in-difference, Russia
    JEL: C23 I12 J60
    Date: 2020
  6. By: Marina S. Telezhkina (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Andrey G. Maksimov (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: Globalisation and the development of technology called forth an expansion and a fundamental transformation of systems of higher education around the world. This research proposes a theoretical model that demonstrates that the growth in higher education enrolment is in response to technological shocks in which either high-skill-biased technologies, technologies replacing middle-skill workers or technologies raising the productivity of high-skill workers, which increases the wage premium of high-skill workers. The authors illustrate the workings of the model using Russian data for 2000–2018, discuss changes in the structure of the labour force, relative wages and enrolment in higher education during the last twenty years
    Keywords: educational economics, higher education expansion, demand for schooling, demand for higher education, technologies, economic development.
    JEL: I21 I25 I26 O14 O15 O33
    Date: 2020
  7. By: Niftiyev, Ibrahim
    Abstract: Inflation is one of the most important economic indicators for a country. Understanding inflation based on the consumer spending patterns allows for better conceptualization of the phenomenon and improved policy responses for the unwanted developments, more precisely, increased price levels in consumer markets. The current working paper develops Consumer Price Index-based inflation indicator via the help of the Laspeyres price index in the case of Azerbaijan to evaluate the post-booming period (which is since 2011). Moreover, the significant results of correlation analysis between the Paasche Price Index and oil prices, oil revenue, and real effective exchange rate (REER) demonstrate initial signals about the urban and rural inflation dynamics and trends in the case of oil-rich Azerbaijan.
    Keywords: Inflation,Macroeconomic Data,Consumer Price Index (CPI),Oil revenue,Laspeyres Index,Paasche Index,Azerbaijan Economy
    JEL: E01 E31 F41 O50
    Date: 2020
  8. By: Aglio, Daniele; Di Mauro, Filippo
    Abstract: Productivity developments have been rather divergent across EU countries and particularly between Central Eastern Europe (CEE) and elsewhere in the continent (non-CEE). How is such phenomenon related to wage bargaining institutions? Starting from the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) shock, we analyse whether the specific set-up of wage bargaining prevailing in non-CEE may have helped their respective firms to sustain productivity in the aftermath of the crisis. To tackle the issue, we merge the CompNet dataset - of firm-level based productivity indicators - with the Wage Dynamics Network (WDN) survey on wage bargaining institutions. We show that there is a substantial difference in the institutional set-up between the two above groups of countries. First, in CEE countries the bulk of the wage bargaining (some 60%) takes place outside collective bargaining schemes. Second, when a collective bargaining system is adopted in CEE countries, it is prevalently in the form of firm-level bargaining (i. e. the strongest form of decentralisation), while in non-CEE countries is mostly subject to multi-level bargaining (i. e. an intermediate regime, only moderately decentralised). On productivity impacts, we show that firms' TFP in the non-CEE region appears to have benefitted from the chosen form of decentralisation, while no such effects are detectable in CEE countries. On the channels of transmission, we show that decentralisation in non-CEE countries is also negatively correlated with dismissals and with unit labour costs, suggesting that such collective bargaining structure may have helped to better match workers with firms' needs.
    Keywords: total factor productivity,firm-level contracts,multi-level contracts,centralised contracts,unit labour costs,dismissals
    JEL: J30 J51
    Date: 2020
  9. By: Köppl-Turyna, Monika; Kantorowicz, Jarosław
    Abstract: This work looks at the policies aimed at promoting female participation in local legislative bodies using a series of changes to electoral law in Poland. We use a difference-in-discontinuities design to examine the effect of an introduction of a female quota on female participation in local councils. We find that the female quota has a strong positive effect on the percentage of females in the local council by increasing the pool of female candidates. It does not, however, affect the individual probability of being elected as a female, suggesting that its effect on voters' preferences is limited.
    Keywords: female quota,electoral rules,female representation,regression discontinuity,difference in discontinuities
    JEL: D72 B52
    Date: 2020
  10. By: Davor Kunovac Author-Name-First: Davor (The Croatian National Bank, Croatia); Ivan Žilić (The Institute of Economics, Zagreb, Croatia)
    Abstract: In this paper, we explore whether a program of housing loan subsidies introduced in Croatia contributed to housing price increases. The subsidy was designed to cover a portion of annuities in the initial period of the housing loan repayment, with a distinct feature that a household could apply for the subsidy only during a monthlong period. Using a dataset on housing transactions we document that the subsidy disrupted the usual intra-annual dynamics of residential transactions as they became very concentrated in the month when housing loan subsidy applications ended. Using an event study approach we find that the housing prices increased just around the introduction of the subsidy. In order to discuss possible confounders, we exploit the subsidy built-in implementation rules, discuss the role of the international housing cycle, and explore the interplay of the housing market and tourism in Croatia. We conclude that the housing loan subsidy acted as a procyclical policy that contributed to the already increasing trend of housing prices. Finally, exploiting the regional variation in the subsidy intensity, we conclude that housing price capitalization was driven by prices in areas and regions with already active housing markets.
    JEL: H24 R21 R31
    Date: 2020–10
  11. By: Ewa Cukrowska-Torzewska (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences, ul. Dluga 44/50, 00-241, Warsaw, Poland); Anna Lovasz (KRTK-KTI, 1097 Budapest, Tóth Kálmán u. 4., Hungary and University of Washington Tacoma, 1900 Commerce St, Tacoma, WA 98402, USA); Mariann Rigo (Institute of Medical Sociology, Centre for Health and Society, Medical Faculty, University of Düsseldorf, Moorenstr. 5., 40225 Düsseldorf, Germany)
    Abstract: The Visegrad 4 countries are characterized by low female and maternal employment rates compared to other Western and Nordic countries. Employment rates of mothers with children aged 0-2 years old are especially low, except in Poland. Work-family balance indicators and gender wage gaps are also unfavorable. The poor labor market situation of mothers in V4 countries has to do with the peculiarities of the national family policies: excessively long parental leaves coupled with poor childcare coverage for children under the age of 2. The only exception is Poland, which provides a shorter leave of 1 year. Though parental leaves are aimed at both parents, the provision of leaves for the exclusive use of fathers is low. Company-level corporate attitudes also play a role. Specifically, part-time work and time flexibility of working hours could be useful tools, however, they are scarcely used in V4 countries compared to other countries in Europe.
    Keywords: Female employment, maternal employment, gender gaps, family policies, company level institutions
    JEL: J08 J16 J21
    Date: 2020–11

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