nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2020‒07‒20
eleven papers chosen by
Maksym Obrizan
Kyiv School of Economics

  1. Corporate Ownership and Managerial Turnover in China and Eastern Europe: A Comparative Meta-Analysis By Ichiro Iwasaki; Xinxin Ma; Satoshi Mizobata
  3. The cost of weak institutions for innovation in China By Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés; Zhang, Min
  4. Estimating Capital Formation and Capital Stock by Economic Sector in China : The Implications for Productivity Growth By Herd,Richard
  5. How does stock market reflect the change in economic demand? A study on the industry-specific volatility spillover networks of China's stock market during the outbreak of COVID-19 By Fu Qiao; Yan Yan
  6. From Imitation to Innovation: Where Is all that Chinese R&D Going? By Michael König; Zheng Michael Song; Kjetil Storesletten; Fabrizio Zilibotti
  7. The Impact of Chinese Technical Barriers to Trade on its Manufacturing Imports By Mahdi Ghodsi
  8. USSR, education, work history, fertility choices, and later-life outcomes By Pronkina, Elizaveta; Perez Izquierdo, Telmo Juan
  9. The impact of Confucianism on gender inequality in Vietnam By Vu, Tien Manh; Yamada, Hiroyuki
  10. The potential for expanding wheat production and exports in Kazakhstan By Istvan Feher; Andrew Fieldsend
  11. Estimating the Neutral Interest Rate in the Kyrgyz Republic By Iulia Ruxandra Teodoru; Asel Toktonalieva

  1. By: Ichiro Iwasaki (Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University); Xinxin Ma (Center for Far Eastern Studies, University of Toyama); Satoshi Mizobata (Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University)
    Abstract: In this paper, we perform a meta-analysis of 736 estimates extracted from 31 previous studies to compare China and Eastern Europe from the viewpoint of the relationship between corporate ownership and managerial turnover. Our results strongly suggest the presence of asymmetric circumstances between the two. Namely, in Eastern Europe, private outside investors and large shareholders exert a positive influence on the managerial discipline of the companies they invest in, and the government is also actively involved in the corporate governance of state-owned enterprises. In contrast, the Chinese government and the Communist Party of China have such significant control over companies as corporate owners that private shareholders only have limited influence over top management. In this sense, Chinese firms are more likely than their East European counterparts to face greater problems in corporate governance.
    Keywords: corporate ownership; managerial turnover; meta-analysis; publication selection bias; China; Eastern Europe
    JEL: D22 G32 G34 G38 P21 P31
    Date: 2020–07
  2. By: Li, Zhan
    Abstract: We first follow the standard approaches (OECD, 2001) to measure capital and labor services in China during the time period of 1980-2016 using the China Industrial Productivity database, and then investigate the influences of replacing factors services with their stocks, which is often adopted in current studies, on total factor productivity (TFP) growth. We also investigate the resource reallocations and their impacts on TFP growth, and further trace their industry origins. The results show that by taking quality changes into account, the annual growth rates of capital service and labor service are 12.30% and 3.56%, respectively. The economy-wide capital quality declines by 3.68% while labor quality increases by 34.10%. Consequently, the aggregate TFP growth of China is underestimated by 6.58% when only replacing capital service with capital stock, while it is overestimated by 50% when only replacing labor service with labor stock and is overestimated by 43.42% when replacing both capital and labor services with their stocks. There are barriers to factor mobility that cause resources misallocation in China, which could be corrected by following market mechanisms. The net reallocation of capital and labor contributes 60.53% to the aggregate TFP growth. Industries with high (or low) factor input growth and high (or low) factor service price contribute to the improvement of factor allocation while those with high (or low) factor input growth and low (or high) factor service price are responsible for the negative reallocation of factor inputs.
    Keywords: Inputs services, Inputs quality, Aggregate production possibility frontier, China Industrial Productivity database, Resource reallocation
    JEL: C82 O11 O47 O53
    Date: 2020–03
  3. By: Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés; Zhang, Min
    Abstract: Does the variation in the quality of local government institutions affect the capacity of firms to innovate? This paper uses a unique dataset that combines the specific features of 2,700 firms with the institutional and socioeconomic characteristics of the 25 cities in China where they operate, in order to assess the extent to which institutional quality -- measured across four dimensions: rule of law, government effectiveness, corruption, and regulatory quality -- affects both the innovation probability and intensity of firms. The results of the econometric analysis show that poor institutional quality in urban China is an important barrier for firm-level innovation. In particular, a deficient rule of law, high corruption, and a weak regulatory quality strongly undermine firm-level innovation. The role of these factors is far more limited in the case of innovation intensity. Better institutions also reduce the amount of time firms spend dealing with government regulations in order to facilitate innovation. The results also indicate that the cost of weak institutions for innovation is higher for private than for state-owned firms, at least in the early stages of innovation. In general, differences in institutional quality generate local urban ecosystems that impinge on the propensity of firms to innovate.
    Keywords: China; cities; firms; Government quality; Innovation; institutions
    JEL: H1 O3 O31
    Date: 2020–02
  4. By: Herd,Richard
    Abstract: This paper aims to fill a gap in the literature on capital formation in China by estimating the capital stock in four economic sectors: business, infrastructure, government, and housing. Such a breakdown is necessary for the purpose of analysis of economic development in China, as the normal models of economic development are based on a competitive economy, which is clearly not the case for the country's infrastructure and government sectors. Moreover, the contribution of housing to gross domestic product in China is very poorly measured. Although the results of this analysis can only be approximate, as the required detailed information for a better estimate is not published, they nonetheless suggest that there has not been overinvestment in the Chinese business sector -- its capital-output ratio has risen only slightly over the past 40 years. Yet, there have been surges in the stocks of housing and infrastructure in the past decade. These sectors account nearly all the recent increase in the capital-output ratio in China.
    Date: 2020–07–13
  5. By: Fu Qiao; Yan Yan
    Abstract: Using the carefully selected industry classification standard, we divide 102 industry securities indices in China's stock market into four demand-oriented sector groups and identify demand-oriented industry-specific volatility spillover networks. The "deman-oriented" is a new idea of reconstructing the structure of the networks considering the relationship between industry sectors and the economic demand their outputs meeting. Networks with the new structure help us improve the understanding of the economic demand change, especially when the macroeconomic is dramatically influenced by exogenous shocks like the outbreak of COVID-19. At the beginning of the outbreak of COVID-19, in China's stock market, spillover effects from industry indices of sectors meeting the investment demand to those meeting the consumption demands rose significantly. However, these spillover effects fell after the outbreak containment in China appeared to be effective. Besides, some services sectors including utility, transportation and information services have played increasingly important roles in the networks of industry-specific volatility spillovers as of the COVID-19 out broke. By implication, firstly, being led by Chinese government, the COVID-19 is successfully contained and the work resumption is organized with a high efficiency in China. The risk of the investment demand therefore was controlled and eliminated relatively fast. Secondly, the intensive using of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) led to supply restriction in services in China. It will still be a potential threat for the Chinese economic recovery in the next stage.
    Date: 2020–07
  6. By: Michael König; Zheng Michael Song; Kjetil Storesletten; Fabrizio Zilibotti
    Abstract: We construct a model of firm dynamics with heterogeneous productivity and distortions. The productivity distribution evolves endogenously as the result of the decisions of firms seeking to upgrade their productivity over time. Firms can adopt two strategies toward that end: imitation and innovation. The theory bears predictions about the evolution of the productivity distribution. We structurally estimate the stationary state of the dynamic model targeting moments of the empirical distribution of R&D and TFP growth in China during the period 2007--2012. The estimated model fits the Chinese data well. We compare the estimates with those obtained using data for Taiwan and find the results to be robust. We perform counterfactuals to study the effect of alternative policies. We find large effects of R&D misallocation on long-run growth.
    JEL: L16 O31 O47 O53
    Date: 2020–06
  7. By: Mahdi Ghodsi
    Abstract: In the past few decades China has put substantial efforts into liberalising its trade and economy that accelerated after its accession to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in December 2001. In this period China has significantly reduced its tariffs on manufacturing imports. However, the proliferation of nontariff measures (NTMs) imposed by China has made it the country notifying the second largest number of technical barriers to trade (TBTs) to the WTO after the United States. This paper investigates the impact of Chinese TBTs and tariffs on the imports of manufacturing products at the 6-digit level of the Harmonised System (HS) during 2002-2015. Heterogeneity of exporting firms, sample selection bias, multilateral resistances, and endogeneity bias are controlled for according to the recent strands of gravity modelling. Results suggest a positive impact of tariff reduction and the imposition of TBTs by China on its import values and quantities. The impact of Chinese TBTs is also differentiated across exporting countries. Since import prices are not significantly affected by TBTs, the imposed standards and regulations embedded in these trade policy measures allowed the economy to gain access to more products from the more developed economies, leading to trade creation.
    Keywords: World Trade Organisation, trade liberalisation, trade policy, technical barriers to trade
    JEL: F13 F14
    Date: 2018–10
  8. By: Pronkina, Elizaveta; Perez Izquierdo, Telmo Juan
    Abstract: This paper investigates how living under the USSR affected the life decisions of East European individuals. We use the retrospective SHARELIFE data to analyze respondents' choices from 1950 to 1990. In particular, we compare the reported choices of individuals in Lithuania (former-USSR) and Poland (former-Soviet Bloc), exploiting the common history of both countries until the end of the Second World War. We find that Lithuanian women increased educational attainments and accumulated 2 plus years of working experience by age 50 relative to Polish women. Moreover, we describe the indirect effect that improved working opportunities have on female education. We can identify this effect by looking at differential outcomes for men and women in the two countries. Similar findings hold once we compare all Baltic countries (former-USSR) toall Soviet Bloc countries and East to West Germany. Finally, we also observe a higher number of marriages during life and selective abortion based on the future child's gender under the USSR. These findings suggest that policies implemented in Socialist countries varied, and regimes affected individuals differently.
    Keywords: Female Employment; Education; Central And Eastern Europe; Socialism; USSR
    JEL: P36 J24 J21 J16 J13 N34 I2
    Date: 2020–07–01
  9. By: Vu, Tien Manh; Yamada, Hiroyuki
    Abstract: We quantified influences of Confucianism on gender inequality in present-day Vietnam. We used the number (or density) of the most successful test takers in the Vietnamese imperial examinations (1075–1919) in a given district as a proxy for mastering the subject of Confucianism. Using an instrumental variable approach, we considered possible impacts on sex ratio and educational attainment of women relative to men, based on test score and population census data. We found that Confucianism has a long lasting impact on gender inequality. The results also suggested that women tended to try harder, perhaps as a countermeasure against discrimination.
    Keywords: Confucianism, Gender inequality, Sex ratio, Education, Vietnam, J16, N35, Z1, I14, I24
    Date: 2020–07
  10. By: Istvan Feher (Szent István University); Andrew Fieldsend (Research Institute of Agricultural Economics, Budapest)
    Abstract: Together with Russia and Ukraine, Kazakhstan is considered as a ‘future main player’ in world grain supply. Many observers have indeed argued that Central Asia, and especially Kazakhstan, has the potential to enhance local, regional and global food security by expanding grain production and exports. This study provides an overview of the Kazakh farming sector; agricultural policies; wheat production, processing, and logistics, environmental resources and challenges; and on domestic consumption, exports and prices of wheat. Based on this information, it is concluded that Kazakhstan has a great potential for expanding its wheat production and exports in the future and it could play a non-negligible role in fulfilling local, but especially regional, food security. By compensating for the export fluctuations of other major players, it could have an important stabilizing role on the world market for wheat and thereby contribute to global food security. Nevertheless, this positive view on the future of Kazakh wheat production is highly conditional on several factors. Projections on the role of climate change are uncertain, but may lead to considerable yield losses. In addition, investments in infrastructure and machinery will be essential to unlock the wheat potential of the country and to compensate for the potential consequences of climate change, water scarcity and soil degradation.
    Keywords: Kazakhstan, wheat, food security
    Date: 2019–04
  11. By: Iulia Ruxandra Teodoru; Asel Toktonalieva
    Abstract: This paper estimates the neutral interest rate in the Kyrgyz Republic using a range of methodologies. Results indicate that the real neutral rate is about 4 percent based on an average of models and 3.7 percent based on a Quarterly Projection Model. This is higher than in many emerging markets and is likely explained by higher public debt and an elevated risk premium, low creditor rights and contractual enforcement, and low domestic savings. The use of an estimate of the neutral interest rate provides useful guidance to monetary policy and enhances transparency and independence of the central bank. Our estimate provides a quantitative benchmark for the monetary policy stance in the context of a central bank that is building analytical capacity, integrating additional insights in its decision-making process, and working to improve its communication. Strengthening the monetary transmission mechanism will be critical to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy, including by allowing more exchange rate flexibility to support the transition to a full-fledged inflation targeting regime, and reducing excess liquidity to enhance the credit channel, reducing dollarization and high interest rate spreads that adversely affect the transmission of the policy rate to the economy.
    Date: 2020–06–05

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