|
on Transition Economics |
| By: | Adsera Ribera, Alicia; Dalla Pozza, Francesca; Guriev, Sergei; Kleine-Rueschkamp, Lukas; Nikolova, Elena |
| Abstract: | Using newly available data, we re-evaluate the impact of transition from plan to market in former communist countries on objective and subjective well-being. We find clear evidence of the high social cost of early transition reforms: cohorts born around the start of transition are shorter than their older or younger peers. The difference in height suggests that the first years of reforms in post-communist countries were accompanied by major deprivation. We provide suggestive evidence on the importance of three mechanisms which partially explain these results: the decline of GDP per capita, the deterioration of healthcare systems, and food scarcity. On the bright side, we find that cohorts that experienced transition in their infancy are now better educated and more satisfied with their lives than their counterparts. Taken together, our results imply that the transition process has been a traumatic experience, but that its negative impact has largely been overcome. |
| Keywords: | height; Structural reforms; transition from plan to market; Well-being |
| JEL: | I14 I31 O12 P36 |
| Date: | 2019–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14027&r=all |
| By: | Ekaterina Semerikova (Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO); Egor Krivosheya (Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO); Alexander Dobrynin (National Research University - Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This study is aimed to examine the effect caused by perception of higher card acceptance barriers on cashless revenue share of Russian merchants. The empirical testing is conducted based on two representative samples of Russian nation-wide merchants survey data collected in 2014 and 2017. The analysis considers a set of regional controls, as well as merchant-specific characteristics. The statistically significant evidence in favor of negative impact caused by perception of higher infrastructural barriers on cashless revenue share is found in both samples, while only a partial significance of higher perceived institutional and human capital barriers may be observed. No significant evidence for merchants? rationality with respect to acceptance barrier has been found based on the comparison of perceived and actual barriers effects. |
| Keywords: | retail payments; financial services; merchants; barriers; card acceptance |
| JEL: | G21 D53 E42 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:9511956&r=all |
| By: | Khromov Mikhail (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | As of January 1, 2019, the Russian banking system numbered 484 credit organizations. A year earlier then number stood at 542. During the year the number decreased by 58 organizations. Six years ago at the beginning of 2013, the number of credit organizations exceeded one thousand (1094). The Bank of Russia policy aimed at clearing the banking sector has triggered a reduction of the number of banks in operation. Over this period, the Bank of Russia withdrew more than 400 banking licenses. From late 2014 the policy aimed at withdrawing from the market those credit organizations which do not satisfy the requirements of the regulator coincided with the deterioration of the situation in the Russian economy and the imposition of international sanctions on major Russian banks. Correspondingly, already from 2014 the rate of banking license revocation has increased. When in 2013, around 4–5 banks on average per month lost their licenses then in 2014 the rate of banking license revocation increased to 7 lending organizations per month, and during the time of peak manifestations of crisis in the Russian economy and financial system seen in 2015–2016 on average 8 credit organizations per month lost the right to continue their banking activity. The number of revoked banking licenses peaked in 2016: the number of revoked licenses during that year hit 97. Moreover, 2016 saw the peak on the aggregate amount of the bank assets of the banks which lost their banking licenses: RUB 1.7 trillion or 2.0 percent of the overall volume of the banking sector assets. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, banking sector, profit, capital, corporate loans, retail lending |
| JEL: | E41 E51 G28 G21 G24 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2019-964&r=all |
| By: | Mateusz Mokrogulski (Warsaw School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The main objective of this paper is to present macroprudential measures introduced in Poland compared to other EU Member States. Macroprudential policy is applied to strengthen the resilience of the financial system in case of materialisation of systemic risk and to support long-term sustainable economic growth. In Poland a lot of effort has been made to address the problem of Swiss franc loans. Due to increasing risk weights for FX portfolios, banks have to maintain much more capital to address systemic risk compared to domestic-currency portfolios. Other macroprudential policy instruments were set to evaluate the systemic importance of large banks operating in Poland. Nevertheless, supervisory authorities from Central and Eastern European countries do not have full flexibility in implementing macroprudential policy instruments. |
| Keywords: | macroprudential policy, capital buffer, risk weights, banking sector, systemic risk, financial stability |
| JEL: | D04 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:9511877&r=all |
| By: | Malginov Georgiy (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Radygin Alexandr (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | From 2016, statistical data began to be published in the framework of the System of Public Property Management Efficiency Estimates. It was approved by Decree of the RF Government No 72 dated January 29, 2015, and introduced by way of replacing the public sector monitoring data, collected and released by the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) since the early 2000s in accordance with the provisions stipulated in RF Government Decree No 1 dated January 4, 1999 (as amended on December 30, 2002). Among other things, the System contains data on the number of federal state unitary enterprises (FSUEs) and joint-stock companies (JSCs) with RF stakes in their capital. Previously, such data were usually published as part of government privatization programs (from 2011 – for three-year period, and prior to 2011 – for one-year period). In the current Forecast Plan (Program) of Federal Property Privatization and the Main Directions of Federal Property Privatization for 2017–2019, relevant data are available only as of early 2016 (Table 1), and so in order to describe the processes taking place over the period 2016–2018, one must rely on data in the System of Public Property Management Efficiency Estimates. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, public sector, privatization |
| JEL: | K11 H82 L32 L33 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2019-974&r=all |
| By: | Saeed Assani; Jianlin Jiang; Ahmad Assani; Feng Yang |
| Abstract: | Recently (Assani et al. 2018) introduced the concept of the most productive scale size (MPSS) for multi-stage data envelopment analysis (DEA) systems which are connected in series. However, some real-life applications may have different structures. This paper investigates the MPSS measurements for systems consisting of multiple subsystems connected in parallel. New models for determining the MPSS of the system and the subsystems are proposed. It is proved that the MPSS of the system can be decomposed as the weighted sum of MPSS of the individual subsystems. The main result is that the system is overall MPSS if and only if it is MPSS in each subsystem. MPSS decomposition allows policymakers to target the non-MPSS subsystems of the production process in order to the subsequent improvements. An application of China Five-Year Plans (FYPs) is used to show the applicability of the proposed methods for estimating and decomposing MPSS in parallel network DEA. Industry and Agriculture sectors with shared inputs are considered as two subsystems in the FYPs. Interesting findings have been noticed. First, for an equal ratio of shared inputs (50 Industry: 50 Agriculture), the Industry sector achieved MPSS in 22 years compared to 17 years in Agriculture. In other words, using the same resources of population, GDP, and general government final consumption, the Industry sector is more stable and productive than the Agriculture sector. Second, the last two FYPs, 11th and 12th, were the perfect two FYPs among the others. |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1910.03421&r=all |
| By: | Saeed Assani; Jianlin Jiang; Ahmad Assani; Feng Yang |
| Abstract: | This paper offers new mathematical models to measure the most productive scale size (MPSS) of production systems with mixed structure networks (mixed of series and parallel). In the first property, we deal with a general multi-stage network which can be transformed, using dummy processes, into a series of parallel networks. In the second property, we consider a direct network combined with series and parallel structure. In this paper, we propose new models to measure the overall MPSS of the production systems and their internal processes. MPSS decomposition is discussed and examined. As a real-life application, this study measures the efficiency and MPSS of research and development (R&D) activities of Chinese provinces within an R&D value chain network. In the R&D value chain, profitability and marketability stages are connected in series, where the profitability stage is composed of operation and R&D efforts connected in parallel. The MPSS network model provides not only the MPSS measurement but also values that indicate the appropriate degree of intermediate measures for the two stages. Improvement strategy is given for each region based on the gap between the current and the appropriate level of intermediate measures. Our findings show that the marketability efficiency values of Chinese R&D regions were low, and no regions are operated under the MPSS. As a result, most Chinese regions performed inefficiently regarding both profitability and marketability. This finding provides initial evidence that the generally lower profitability and marketability efficiency of Chinese regions is a severe problem that may be due to wasted resources on production and R&D. |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1910.03805&r=all |
| By: | Berthold Herrendorf (Arizona State University); Lei Fang (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta) |
| Abstract: | We document that the employment share of high-skilled services is much lower in China than in countries with similar GDP per capita. We build a model of structural change between goods, low-skilled services, and high-skilled services to account for this observation. We find that large distortions limit the size of high-skilled services in China. If they were removed, both high-skilled services and GDP per capita would increase considerably and the effects of technological progress and education on GDP per capita would be considerably larger. This suggests that distortions in high-skilled services importantly hold back the development of China. |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed019:454&r=all |
| By: | Shagaida Natalia (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Shishkina Ekaterina (RANEPA); Gataulina Ekaterina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | Over recent years, agriculture – if we choose to look at available data prior to their adjustment based on the results of the All-Russia Agricultural Census – has been growing at a sufficiently high rate: in 2013 – by 5.8 percent, in 2014 – by 3.5, in 2015 – by 2.6, in 2016 – by 4.8, and in 2017 – by 2.5 percent3. Overall, growth over the course of 5 years amounted to 20.7 percent. Based on Rosstat’s current statistics, managers on both the federal and regional levels describe the development pattern of the agroindustrial complex (AIC) as a breakthrough and a leap forward. We likewise mentioned this fact in our overviews released over several previous years2. However, in 2018, there were some problems involved in the estimation of the growth rate both for 2018 and for the previous years. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, agricultural production |
| JEL: | Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2019-968&r=all |
| By: | Barbashova Natalia (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Arlashkin Igor (RANEPA); Belev Sergey (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Deryugin Alexander (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Leonov Elisei (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Sokolov Ilya (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Tishchenko Tatiana (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | In 2018, fiscal revenues of the enlarged government (hereinafter BEG) according to the preliminary data released by the Federal Treasury2 exceeded the volumes seen in the previous year by 1.9 percentage points of GDP, or by RUB 5,870 billion in absolute terms (Table 7). At the same time, 75 percent of the income increment of BEG was secured by the federal budget including oil revenues to RUB 3,046 billion, or by 2.2 percentage points of GDP. Non-oil and gas receipts to the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation in 2018 compared to 2017 rose by RUB 2,824 billion in absolute terms but dropped in shares of GDP by 0.3 percentage points. Expenditures of Russia’s budgetary system contracted in 2018 compared to January-December 2017 by 2.6 percentage points of GDP growing in absolute terms by RUB 1,485 billion. In 2018, fiscal revenues of the budgetary system of Russia hit maximum for the five- year period which was mainly due to the favorable price environment on the natural resources. Budget expenditures of the enlarged government in shares of GDP in 2018 on the contrary reached minimum for the five-year period, which was possible due to budgetary rule in force, which significantly limited spending of the federal budget. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, intergovernmental relations, fiscal policy, budgetary system |
| JEL: | H77 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2019-961&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | An external sector statistics (ESS) technical assistance (TA) mission visited the National Statistics Office of Georgia (Geostat) in Tbilisi, Georgia, during May 6–10, 2019. It was undertaken at the request of Geostat and was a follow up to the TA mission conducted in November 2016. The main objectives of the mission were to assess the Geostat’s progress in the area of external sector statistics (ESS) and provide further recommendations on improving the data collection and compilation for producing the financial account components, including direct investment statistics, in an integrated format. Additionally, the mission worked closely with the National Bank of Georgia (NBG)—the institution in charge of compilation of balance of payments, international investment position (IIP), and external debt statistics—on issues related to reconciliation between the data provided by the Geostat with compiled ESS datasets. |
| Date: | 2019–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:19/306&r=all |
| By: | Olga Guseva (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Anastasia Stepanova (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how ownership characteristics affect the performance of small and medium technology startups in Russia. We focus on how different types of owners (e.g. founders, state, venture capital and corporate firms) contribute to startup performance. Using an unbalanced panel of startups from Skolkovo, the largest Russian innovation cluster, from 2010 to 2016, we found evidence of a negative relationship between a support from government-related organisations and chosen indicators of startup performance. Our findings confirmed the positive impact of venture capital on ROA, especially for the Space cluster startups. While family members as owners were not found to have a significant impact on startups, we identified a positive ontribution from managerial ownership to ROA. The study highlights the importance of other ownership characteristics, which were found to be significant in previous studies of emerged markets. We discuss potential interpretations of the findings and provide strategic management insights for startup owners and investors. |
| Keywords: | Startups; Ownership; Development institutes; Emerging markets |
| JEL: | M13 G32 G34 O38 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:76/fe/2019&r=all |
| By: | Izryadnova Olga (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | Macroeconomic situation in 2017–2018 was marked by the outstripping growth rates of fixed investments relative to GDP performance and final consumption of households. In 2018, amid fixed investments increase by 4.3 percent, GDP growth constituted 2.3 percent relative to the corresponding period of the previous year. However, despite the upward trend of fixed investments seen in 2017–2018, the economy has retained the impact from the acute investment crisis of 2014–2016. Vis-a-vis pre-crisis 2012 fixed investments registered in 2018 came to merely 97.3 percent and the construction work volume to 95.7 percent. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, fixed investment |
| JEL: | E20 E21 E22 E60 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2019-970&r=all |
| By: | Sokolova, Tetiana; Sushchenko, Oleksandr; Schwarze, Reimund |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the prospects and feasibility of using the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU as a roadmap for reorienting the Ukrainian brown economy toward a green economy, making use of green financial instruments in the process. The first chapter is dedicated to the concept of green financial policy as well as its main fiscal and market instruments. The second chapter explores in detail the state of climate-related affairs in Ukraine, the country's commitments to numerous international environmental agreements as well as the role of the EU Association Agreement and its place in the Ukrainian economic context. The third chapter considers the political, economic and social measures required to establish a green financial policy. Our central findings are as follows: (1) Although Ukraine has been making progress towards a green financial policy in recent years, there is no doubt that the country needs technical and financial assistance from its European partners. The Association Agreement between Ukraine and the countries of the European Union provides an essential basis for building a green economy in Ukraine. (2) Despite efforts to mobilise internal green financial resources, the Ukrainian Government is struggling with what has already been achieved and is at a crossroads in moving in a different direction. For this reason, local and even non-governmental organisations in Ukraine today have often a greater direct influence on the process of building a green economy than the government itself. Two promising examples of Ukrainian companies seeking a green reputation are the Ukrainian Green Bank (Ukrgasbank) and the large energy company DTEK. |
| Keywords: | green economy,sustainable development,low-carbon technology,green finance,environmental taxation,green investment,Ukraine,European Union,Association Agreement,National Action Plan |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ufzdps:62019&r=all |
| By: | Kazenin Konstantin (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Starodubrovskaya Irina (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | This article deals with a brief evaluation of developments in the regions of North Caucasus in 2018 as they can be regarded as indicators of significant changes in that part of the country. Such developments include personnel changes in the government of Dagestan where for the first time in the post-Soviet period key positions in the region were taken by officials who never worked in that republic, as well as large-scale public activities in Ingushetia over the issue of the region’s borders. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, North Caucasus |
| JEL: | H11 H70 H77 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2019-980&r=all |
| By: | Barinova Vera (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Zemtsov Tsepan (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Tsareva Yulia (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | Support of the small and medium sized entrepreneurship (SME) sector is recognized to be one of Russia’s economic policy priorities2,3. It is customary to speak of that sector’s low level of development compared with other countries. However, when comparable estimates are applied, the gap does not appear to be catastrophic. The relative share of SMEs in the value added produced by Russia’s business sector amounts to about 44 percent, in the developed countries – OECD member states it amounts on average to 55 percent, in the USA – to 48 percent, and in Canada – to 30 percent. The problems faced by Russian SMEs, in qualitative terms, are as follows: the percentage of exporters and technological startups is low, and a greater part of that sector is unregulated; in 2018, the relative share of medium sized firms and the number of technological startups shrank even further. The conditions for and specific features of the SME sector’s development vary across Russia’s regions, and this fact is completely overlooked by prevailing legislation. According to our estimations, entrepreneurial activity in the regions does not depend on government support, instead responding to macroeconomic and institutional changes. In 2018, in a majority of Russian regions, the number of SME subjects and their turnover declined in response to shrinking personal income, especially in the regions with a high relative share taken up by the shadow sector, while the same indices increased in those regions that hosted the FIFA World Cup events. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, small businesses, medium-sized enterprises |
| JEL: | C53 E37 L21 L52 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2019-977&r=all |
| By: | Smith, Gary (Pomona College); Liang, Wesley (Pomona College) |
| Abstract: | China has seen extraordinary economic growth for the past two decades, coupled with a booming housing market. Following the 2008 financial crisis, however, observers began worrying that the Chinese real estate market had been gripped by a speculative bubble. We use residential rent and price data to assess whether these fears are justified. We conclude that residential real estate markets are bubbly in Beijing and Shanghai, with the Beijing housing market frothier than the Shanghai market. |
| Keywords: | China real estate, housing bubble |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:clm:pomwps:1002&r=all |
| By: | Abramov Alexander (RANEPA); Chernova Maria (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | In 2018, the Russian stock market held up its reputation as one of the most volatile markets in the world. In 2018, Russian companies’ stocks turned out to be instruments with highest returns, outperforming 36 world’s largest stock exchange markets, in contrast to 2017, when Russian stocks were at the bottom of the list of stocks with lowest returns. In 2018, the MOEX Russia Index (formerly the MICEX Index) picked up 12.3 percent, whereas the RTS Index lost 7.4 percent. In 2018, the MOEX Russia Index found itself in a small group of stock indices of Brazil, India and Argentina that managed to stay within a range of positive returns (see Fig. 1). While being composed of the same companies, the two of Russia’s indices differ in that the dollar-denominated RTS Index offers bigger returns than the ruble-denominated MOEX Russia Index. Therefore, when the Russian ruble depreciates the ruble-denominated returns on investment in the stocks composing the MOEX Russia Index are higher than the dollar-denominated returns on the RTS Index portfolio. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, stock market, bond market, bond market, derivatives market, private investors |
| JEL: | G01 G12 G18 G21 G24 G28 G32 G33 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2019-962&r=all |
| By: | Baeva Marina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Knobel Alexander (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | The Russian Federation acceded to the World Trade Organization (WTO), and so became subject to its international trade dispute settlement procedures, on August 22, 2012. The mechanism was adopted by the WTO under the Understanding on Rules and Procedures Governing the Settlement of Disputes (DSU)2. Thus, from August 2012 onwards, Russia has enjoyed the right to defend its trade interests by applying this particular instrument |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, foreign trade, WTO, trade disputes |
| JEL: | F10 F13 F19 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2019-966&r=all |
| By: | Bo?ena Kade?ábková (University of Economics in Prague); Emílie Ja?ová (Institute for Forcast) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this article is to present the differences between the different flows on the labor market in the Czech Republic. The problem is significant economically, socially and politically. The empirical part of the study focuses on the quantification of so-called churn. The specific features of the Czech Republic's churn include the fact that the overall churn has an anti-cyclical character in the Czech Republic, and that in the period of growth of the total churn, the share of wages and salaries in total in GDP at current prices has increased, which is both contrary to the conclusions of world research. The revival of the economy is accompanied by an increase in total churn, but it does not lead to an increase in wages and salaries resulting from company-to-business movements, as would be the case with economic theory. |
| Keywords: | churn, labour market, wage |
| JEL: | E24 E32 E37 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:9510783&r=all |
| By: | Robert Z. Lawrence (Peterson Institute for International Economics) |
| Abstract: | For more than three decades the goal of becoming “the factory of the world†has been at the core of China’s development strategy. This strategy, in combination with high rates of domestic investment and low rates of consumption, made Chinese production the most manufacturing intensive in the world. But as its wages have risen, China’s competitiveness in the most labor-intensive manufacturing industries has eroded. Its ability to assemble products remains a major source of its exports, but it has also tried to shift toward more sophisticated value-added production domestically. Chinese domestic spending has shifted away from investment toward more consumption as citizens’ incomes have grown. Like Americans, Chinese people are also spending more on services than on manufactured goods. All these changes are fundamentally altering the structure of China’s production, reducing the role of manufacturing, and increasing the skill levels of workers in manufacturing. This Policy Brief reviews the challenges posed by these developments for China’s long-term goal of achieving more inclusive growth. It presents evidence that commonly held perceptions that Chinese manufacturing employment growth is robust are wrong. In fact, such growth has peaked and China is now following the pattern of structural change that is typical of a more mature emerging economy, in which the share of employment in manufacturing declines as workers are increasingly employed in services. |
| Date: | 2019–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb19-11&r=all |
| By: | Zatsepin Vasily (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | In 2018, the total strength of the Armed Forces (AF) of the Russian Federation did not change. Early in February 2018, the President of the Russian Federation increased by 200 persons to 10,740 persons the ultimate staff number of the Central Office of the Ministry of Defense (without the guarding and building maintenance personnel taken into account), which is not included in the strength of the Armed Forces. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, military-industrial complex, military reform, defense order, military procurement, defense control |
| JEL: | D74 F52 H56 F51 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2019-979&r=all |
| By: | Eberle, Jonathan; Böing, Philipp |
| Abstract: | We investigate the impact of research and development (R&D) subsidies on R&D inputs of large- and medium-sized firms and on additional innovation and economic activities in Chinese provinces. A panel vector autoregressive (VAR) model and corresponding impulse response function (IRF) analysis allow us to differentiate between direct and indirect effects, which add up to total effects. We find that an increase of R&D subsidies significantly decreases private R&D investments, although there is a significant positive effect on the R&D personnel employed in firms. We interpret these findings as a partial crowding-out effect because public funds substitute some private funds while total R&D inputs still increase. Complementarily, we find a positive secondary effect on the provincial patent activity, our measure of technological progress. Interestingly, we also find potentially unintended effects of R&D subsidies on increases in the investment rate in physical capital and residential buildings. Although R&D subsidies fail to incentivise private R&D expenditures, firms increase total R&D inputs, and provincial economies benefit from secondary effects on technological progress and capital deepening. |
| Keywords: | China,R&D subsidies,regional economic development,panel VAR,impulse response function |
| JEL: | C33 R11 R58 O38 O47 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:19038&r=all |
| By: | Burdyak Alexandra (RANEPA); Grishina Elena (RANEPA); Eliseeva Marina (RANEPA); Lyashok Viktor (RANEPA); Maleva Tatiana (RANEPA); Mkrtchian Nikita (RANEPA); Florinskaya Yulia (RANEPA); Seredkina E. (RANEPA); Khasanova Ramilya (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | In 2018 real accrued wages and salaries of corporate employees increased in Q1 by 10.2%, by 7.6% in Q2, by 6.3 in Q3 and by 4.1% in Q4 against the same period of the previous year (Fig. 1). At the same time, real disposable cash incomes of households grew in Q1 and Q2, 2018, by 2.3 è 1.3% respectively against the same period of 2017 while in Q3 and Q4 they decreased by 1.6 and 1.1% against the same period of 20172. Real allotted pensions increased in Q1-2, 2018, by 2.3–0.4% against the same period of 2017 and decreased by 0.5% in Q4. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, households, labor market, social sentiment, internal migration, long-term migration, external labor migration |
| JEL: | D14 J01 J61 J62 F22 J11 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2019-981&r=all |
| By: | Mishel Ghassibe; Maximiliano Appendino; Samir Elsadek Mahmoudi |
| Abstract: | This paper offers empirical evidence that greater financial inclusion of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) can promote higher economic growth and employment, especially in the Middle East and Central Asia regions. First, we show that countries with higher SME financial inclusion exhibit more effective monetary policy transmission and tax collection. Second, we find substantial employment and labor productivity growth gains at the firm level from access to credit, gains that are higher for SMEs. We also obtain evidence of a substantial positive impact on SME employment and labor productivity growth from improved credit bureau coverage and insolvency regimes. Finally, cross-country aggregate evidence confirms the employment and growth gains from SME financial inclusion, which appear larger in the Middle East and Central Asia than in other regions. |
| Date: | 2019–09–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:19/209&r=all |
| By: | Wen, Wen; Ke, Yun; Sun, Xiaonan |
| Abstract: | Using hand-collected data from Chinese public companies, we examine whether managerial foreign experience affects corporate outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) decision. Our result shows that there is a positive association between managerial foreign experience and OFDI. The finding is robust to alternative sampling method, foreign experience measures, and regression specification. We also use the instrumental variable approach, the propensity score matching procedure, and the Heckman two-stage selection model to mitigate potential endogeneity concerns. While both foreign work and study experience promote OFDI, the effect is significant only in non-state-owned entities and only when returnee managers hold senior positions. Lastly, we show that managerial foreign experience is associated with improved performance of outward investments. |
| Keywords: | international experience, human capital, knowledge transfer, F21 F22 |
| Date: | 2019–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agi:wpaper:00000158&r=all |
| By: | Zhongchen Song; Tom Coupé (University of Canterbury); W. Robert Reed (University of Canterbury) |
| Abstract: | Researchers have long puzzled over China’s high saving rate. Some have hypothesized that the explanation lies with China’s One-Child Policy (OCP). According to this hypothesis, faced with fewer children to support them in their old age, Chinese parents increased their saving to finance retirement. Previous research relied on empirical studies of the relationship between children and saving behavior. However, all of these studies based their analysis on data after the OCP was implemented. Their implicit counterfactual for China without an OCP was households with multiple children living in an OCP environment. In contrast, we compare Chinese people with people from regions that do not have restrictive population policies (Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, Japan, and South Korea). These regions share many cultural and demographic characteristics with China that suggest they can be used as a counterfactual for China. This approach also enables us to employ a Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition procedure to identify the different channels by which children could affect savings. Our main finding is that there is little difference in the saving behavior of Chinese people with their regional counterfactuals. This is evidence against the hypothesis that the OCP was a major contributor to China’s high saving rate. It also suggests that the recent relaxation of the OCP cannot be counted upon to boost Chinese consumption. |
| Keywords: | China, One-Child Policy, Saving rate, Demographics, Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition |
| JEL: | D14 E21 J13 J18 O10 |
| Date: | 2019–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbt:econwp:19/10&r=all |
| By: | Shadrin Artem (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | According to the 2018 year-end data, the regional consolidated budgets and local government off-budget funds’ budgets ran a surplus of RUB 512.9 billion or 0.49 percent of GDP. To compare, the regional consolidated budgets and local government off-budget funds’ budgets ran a deficit of RUB 61.5 billion or 0.07 percent of GDP in 2017. In 2018, the budgets of subjects of the Russian Federation ran a surplus of RUB 491.5 billion, urban districts’ budgets ran a deficit of RUB 0.8 billion, federal-status cities’ inner-city municipalities’ budgets ran a surplus of RUB 0.4 billion, municipal areas’ budgets ran a surplus of RUB 16.0 billion, urban and rural settlements’ budgets ran a surplus of RUB 3.5 billion, local government off-budget funds’ budgets ran a surplus of RUB 2.7 billion. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, regional and municipal finances, borrowing structure, domestic bonds |
| JEL: | H71 H74 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2019-963&r=all |
| By: | Dmitriy, Skrypnik; Alexander, Zaytsev; Kirill, Ryazanov |
| Abstract: | This work explores the effects of countersanctions and import substitution processes on food markets, food imports, and economic growth in Russia. In 2014-2018 in the agro-food markets quite active import substitution processes (in terms of domestic production volumes) is shown. On poultry meat, pork, vegetables and cheese, the growth of domestic production covered the fallen imports by more than 2 times, which led to an increase in the share of domestic production. A lack of substantial production growth is still seen in cattle meat production. On the basis of ex-post analysis, it is determined that the actual contribution of domestic agriculture (excluding cereals) and food industry to GDP dynamics was moderate but positive. In certain sanctions years, it reached 0.24 p.p. or 10.6% of total GDP growth. At the same time, the contribution increased significantly compared to the presanction period. The main effects of countersanctions are found in imports of milk, vegetable and fruit groups, but due to the small share of imports in total consumption, the impact on domestic markets is insignificant. According to calculations, the main factor of growth of domestic agricultural sectors (excluding cereals markets) and food industry in 2014 were countersanction actions of Russia. |
| Keywords: | Keywords: countersanctions, import substitution, economic growth |
| JEL: | F14 F18 F43 L66 Q11 |
| Date: | 2019–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:96188&r=all |
| By: | Jan Drahokoupil (European Trade Union Institute, Brussels, Belgium); Brian Fabo (Narodna banka Slovenska, Bratislava, Slovakia) |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses demand for skilled labour in Slovakia, a country that is characterized by a high degree of economic integration through inward foreign investment and through international backward linkages within global value chains. Developing existing approaches to political economy and global production networks (GPNs), our framework distinguishes between demand for digital skills on two levels: occupational structure; and skill content within occupational types. In this way, we can assess not only what kind of workers are hired by companies, but also what kind of specific skills are required from these workers. Using a large dataset on vacancies from a leading job portal, combined with administrative data on company size and ownership, we show that foreign and mixed-ownership companies generally advertise for higher skilled occupations than domestic firms, but their skill requirements for these jobs are lower than in similar jobs in domestic companies. Foreign companies have higher skill requirements only in some blue-collar jobs linked to assembly and component manufacturing. For white collar occupations, domestic companies are more likely to require digital skills. The findings confirm our expectations about the position of Slovakia as a country in an integrated periphery, where multinational companies are heavily present but rarely bring complex activities. Our key policy implication is that foreign direct investment in the integrated periphery brings only a limited potential for technology transfers. |
| Keywords: | skills, foreign direct investment, FDI, digitalization, global production networks, job vacancies |
| JEL: | J24 O33 |
| Date: | 2019–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:svk:wpaper:1065&r=all |
| By: | Naomitsu Yashiro; Caroline Klein; Olga Rastrigina; Ania Thiemann |
| Abstract: | Latvia’s productivity growth is held back by weak innovation and inefficient resource allocation. The shortage of skilled workers which constrains innovation and the adoption of digital technologies must be addressed through further alignment of vocational and tertiary education with labour market demand. Strengthening the innovation ecosystem by improving the quality of research and collaboration between firms and research institutions would help to diffuse digital technologies more widely across the economy. Fighting widespread informality, improving the low debt recovery through a more efficient insolvency regime, and reducing substantial state ownership would improve the allocation of resources. Latvia also relies heavily on EU funds to finance its important structural policies. The continuity of the most effective EU funded policy instruments needs to be ensured in the medium term, by integrating them into the national budget.This Working Paper relates to the 2019 OECD Economic Survey of Latvia(http://www.oecd.org/economy/surve ys/latvia-economic-snapshot/) |
| Keywords: | Access to credit, Competition, EU Structural funds, Informality, Innovation, Latvia, Productivity, Skills shortage |
| JEL: | G28 I28 J08 L30 O17 O20 O38 O43 O52 |
| Date: | 2019–10–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1571-en&r=all |
| By: | Mau Vladimir (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | A number of unique anniversaries fell in 2018–2019: 30 years since the collapse of the communist system, 20 years since the start of the Asian economic crisis, 20 years since the introduction of the Euro (the new currency was introduced into noncash circulation on 1 January 1999), and 10 years since the development of the global structural crisis. There is a specific date that is important in the history of the Russian economy and economic policy: in 1999 the ten-year decline changed to economic growth, which led to doubling the GDP and a restoration of the pre-crisis level by 2008. These are not just anniversaries of events that remain in the past but key milestones of socioeconomic development that in many ways formed the priorities and phobias of the political elite of the world’s leading countries, both developed and developing. These events of the past continue to have significant influence of today’s economic policy. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, economic growth, economic crisis |
| JEL: | P16 P26 P48 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2019-965&r=all |
| By: | Vasilev, Aleksandar |
| Abstract: | This paper takes an otherwise standard real-business-cycle setup with government sector, and augments it with shocks to consumer confidence to study business cycle fluctuations. A surprise increase in consumer confidence generates higher utility, as the household values consumption more in that scenario. As a test case, the model is calibrated to Bulgaria after the introduction of the currency board (1999-2018). We find that shocks to consumer confidence by themselves cannot be the main driving force behind business cycle fluctuations, but when combined with technology shocks, model performance improves substantially. Therefore, allowing for additional factors, such as consumer confidence, to interact with technology shocks can be useful in explaining business cycle movements. |
| Keywords: | consumer confidence shocks,business cycles,Bulgaria |
| JEL: | E32 E62 E21 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:leafwp:1903&r=all |
| By: | Malginov Georgiy (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Sternik Sergey (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The preliminary results of the Russian economy’s development in 2018 appear to be rather controversial. On the one hand, the growth rate of GDP gained 2.3 percent; on the other, the consumer inflation index increased significantly, to 4.3 percent, from its record low of the entire period since the onset of market reforms (2.5 percent), achieved in 2017. The movement pattern of personal disposable income, which is a much more significant factor determining the situation in the real estate market, was quite volatile throughout the course of last year, with multiple trend reversals. In spite of the positive results of the first two quarters, probably achieved thanks to the current electoral cycle, in the end the personal disposable income index stayed roughly at the same level as in 2017. The RF Central Bank twice reduced its key rate over the course of H1 2018, to 7.25 percent per annum in early autumn. However, over the next few months it was once again hiked twice, and so returned to its level of late 2017 (7.75 percent). The tricky movement pattern of the key rate pushed down the interest rates on bank loans and notably improved the position of borrowers. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, residential property prices, housing market, housing construction |
| JEL: | K11 H82 L32 L33 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2019-982&r=all |
| By: | Elmi Aziri (Faculty of Contemporary Social Science, South East European University, Tetovo) |
| Abstract: | The Republic of Macedonia is considered a developing country and is still in transition and is accompanied by numerous macroeconomic problems such as high unemployment, high interest rates, low level of domestic investment. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to present and explain, based on concrete facts and relevant results of economic activity in the Republic of Macedonia, the occurrence of interest rates, their level, their causes and their impact on other economic processes, with particular emphasis gross domestic production and economic growth. By using regression analysis and small squares estimation (OLS) we will present variables links that will help us better investigate this phenomenon. The data we will present below date from 1993 to 2013. Earlier scholars of this phenomenon have verified the close correlation of interest rates with economic development. The data, the analysis and the conclusions to be drawn in this paper show the close and negative link between the interest rate and the economic growth of the Republic of Macedonia. |
| Keywords: | interest rates, economic growth, GDP, monetary measures, economic development |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:9511952&r=all |
| By: | Gradín Carlos; Wu Binbin |
| Abstract: | We analyse income and expenditure distribution in China in a comparative perspective with India. These countries represent extreme cases in the relationship of inequality to both wellbeing indicators. Income is more highly concentrated than expenditure in India, especially at the top of the distribution. Both types of inequality are similar in China, although expenditure is more unequally distributed than income in urban areas.China has a much stronger correlation in individual ranks and levels between the two wellbeing distributions. As a result, expenditure inequality is higher in China than in India, but income inequality much lower. This results partially from differences in population composition, such as China being more urbanized and having smaller households, but mostly from differences in conditional income distributions, especially by attained education of the household head.We show that hybrid measures of wellbeing combining income and expenditure can be useful for such cross-country comparison. |
| Keywords: | Consumption,Consumption expenditure,expenditure inequalities,Income inequality |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2019-54&r=all |
| By: | Tamara Sli?kovi? (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb) |
| Abstract: | Since the beginning of this century, the Croatian housing market has passed through various stages of development. Roughly, trends in this housing market could be observed through three different phases. The first period encompasses the first eight years of this century and is characterized by stable and positive movements of supply and demand indicators. The year 2008 represents the turning point towards negative trends on the Croatian housing market. This was the beginning of a crisis which lasted seven years. During this period, the demand for housing units has fallen dramatically and supply of new housing units has grown at low rates. As a result of such market developments, housing prices have decreased. Negative trends persist until 2015, when stable increase of supply indicators is perceived. Thereafter, demand side of the market starts to recover, along with housing prices which begin to rise.This research represents an attempt to identify the factors that have influenced the mentioned developments on the Croatian housing market. The significance of factors which are included in analysis is tested within the multiple regression framework. Special emphasis is placed on modelling housing prices dynamics. The results indicate that there are certain specificities of the Croatian housing market. For example, demand cannot be explained well by standard housing demand determinants. The low significance of the standard factors is even more pronounced in modelling supply side of the market. When observing the significance of housing prices in the supply and demand equations, the results show that lagged prices in both equations are statistically significant. Therefore, it can be concluded that expectations on housing market in Croatia are adaptive. Finally, supply and demand elasticities are observed as their comparison can potentially help in explaining cyclic movements in the housing market. |
| Keywords: | Housing Supply, Housing Demand, Housing Prices, Multiple Regression Analysis, Croatian Housing Market*This work has been supported by the Croatian Science Foundation under the project no. 6785. |
| JEL: | R21 R31 R32 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:9511828&r=all |
| By: | Tsukhlo Sergey (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | Prolonged period of industrial business surveys conducted by the Gaidar Institute and representative range of indicators permit to resolve the first task – analyze the situation in the sector in 2018 – determine the place for the year 2018 in all the 27 years since the IET launched and carried out business surveys between 1992–2018. For this purpose, we will use aggregate indicators. The latter are usually calculated on a monthly basis on the findings obtained from monthly surveys. They became widely popular owing to promptness of the findings and shortage of data released on the Russian industrial sector. However, this approach to present surveys’ findings complicates assessment of each year as a whole. That is why we analyze all consolidated indicators in a year-on-year basis |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, industrial sector, industrial output |
| JEL: | C53 E37 L21 L52 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2019-969&r=all |
| By: | Drobyshevsky Sergey (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Pavlov Pavel (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | In 2018, the growth rate of GDP in Russia (2.3 percent) represents a record high of per annum economic growth rate since 2012. This year-end result is notably above the estimates offered by a majority of international financial organizations (the IMF, World Bank, the OECD), as well as by Russian banking analysts and experts. The volume of GDP in nominal terms surged above RUB 100 trillion, to RUB 103,626.6 billion (or approximately USD 1,657 billion when recalculated at the annual average RUB-to-USD rate). Growth was also displayed by most of the basic indicators: thus, the industrial production index in 2018 gained 2.9 percent, freight turnover – 2.9 percent, retail trade turnover – 2.6 percent. Special note should be made of the movement pattern of fixed investment: according to preliminary estimates released by Rosstat, its annual growth index amounted to 4.3 percent. Considering the fact that, in 2017, the amount of fixed investment in constant prices increased by 4.8 percent, it can be said that over the period 2017–2018, the investment sphere indeed experienced intense growth; however, the main contribution to that growth was made either by budget-funded investments (the completion of building construction projects in preparation for the World Cup; the construction of the bridge to the Crimea; the Sabetta Airport and Seaport; and infrastructure in the city of Moscow), or investments by state-owned companies (Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline; Yamal LNG; etc.). |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, economic growth, economic crisis |
| JEL: | F10 F14 F15 F40 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2019-976&r=all |
| By: | Izryadnova Olga (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | In 2016–2018, the economic situation was characterized by the gradual recovery of GDP positive dynamics with GDP growth rates increasing from 100.3 percent in 2016 to 101.6 percent and 102.3 percent in 2017 and 2018, respectively. The GDP real volume surpassed by 1.6 percentage point the indicator of 2014, having compensated the crisis decrease seen in 2015. Unlike the conditions of the previous two years, the nature of development of the economy in 2017-2018 was determined by simultaneous growth in demand on the international and domestic markets. With a relatively favorable foreign economic situation and sustainable positive dynamics, in 2018 exports amounted to 119.4 percent (as per the methods of the system of national accounts (SNA)) as compared to 2014. With the speed-up of the growth rates of the volume of exports to 6.3 percent, in 2018 the contribution of net exports to GDP increased to 3.5 percent against the indicator of 2.8 percent a year before in comparable prices (10.0 percent against 5.3 percent in current prices). Growth in net exports had a considerable effect on the dynamics and pattern of formation of GDP and compensated the weakening of domestic market dynamics. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, production, external and internal demand, GDP structure |
| JEL: | G28 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2019-971&r=all |
| By: | Bobylev Yuri (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The oil and gas sector is among the basic ones of the Russian economy and is playing an important role in the income generation for the state budget and Russia’s trade balance. Implementation of the OPEC+ agreement regarding the production restriction has resulted in the world crude oil prices growth. In 2018, the volumes of crude oil production peaked for the entire post-Soviet period and the extraction and export of the natural gas hit all-time high. Under the first stage of tax maneuver in force in the oil industry, the refining depth and increased volumes of export of petroleum products observed before its implementation were replaced by contraction of production and export of fuel oil and by the reduction of crude oil refining and export of petroleum products. Oil refining depth moved up markedly. It was decided to gradually complete tax maneuver in the oil sector and introduce the additional profits tax (windfall tax). |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, oil and gas sector, oil production, oil prices, oil and gas export |
| JEL: | L71 L72 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2019-972&r=all |
| By: | Dezhina Irina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The past year marked the start of drawing up new integrated technological development plans for the Russian science and technology. The plans were originally presented by an Executive Order of the Russian President and then evolved into a nationwide project called “The ‘Science’ National Project” which is in turn linked to the Strategy for Scientific and Technological Development of the Russian Federation adopted in 2016 as well as a national program called “Digital Economy of the Russian Federation.” In addition to the plans, there were some important organizational changes that led to the ultimate separation of former academic research institutes from the Russian Academy of Science (the Academy) and to the establishment of a single Ministry of Science and Higher Education with authority over institutions of higher education and research-performing organizations, while the Academy was granted the legal status of public expert organization. Other important changes include positive moves towards the development of science in institutions of higher education and more active position of regional government authorities with regard to scientific and technological development. Yet, no breakthroughs or visible changes in technological innovations took place. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, R&D, science, technology |
| JEL: | O31 O32 O3 I28 I2 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2019-973&r=all |
| By: | Hao Wei (Department of International Economics, Beijing Normal University); Ran Yuan (Department of International Economics, Beijing Normal University); Laixun Zhao (Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration (RIEB), Kobe University, Japan) |
| Abstract: | Using firm-level R&D data with regional international talent data, we find that international talent increases the R&D investment of Chinese manufacturing firms, a result that is further confirmed with patent data and under a number of robustness checks. These findings stem from two mechanisms: international talent boosts human capital accumulation and provides a diversified labor force. Further, the R&D promoting effect is stronger if firms are located in eastern China rather than in other regions, of small and medium-sized rather than large-sized, of domestic ownership rather than foreign ownership. The policy implication is, the introduction of international talent can be a new way to promoting R&D investment, especially for skilled-labor constrained countries. |
| Keywords: | International talent inflow, Manufacturing firms, R&D, Patent application |
| JEL: | F16 F22 O32 |
| Date: | 2019–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2019-17&r=all |
| By: | Volovik Nadezhda (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | In November 2018, the Organization for Economic Development and Cooperation (OECD) presented its updated forecasts2, according to which global economic growth would slow down from the current 3.7 percent (the OECD’s estimate as of 2018) to 3.5 percent in 2019–2020. Earlier, the OECD’s experts expected a 3.7 percent growth in global GDP in 2019. But growth in trade and investments slowed down on the back of the US protectionist policy. Growth in interest rates and appreciation of the US dollar exchange rate resulted in the capital outflow from developing countries and depreciation of their currencies. In the OECD zone, monetary stimulation measures are gradually scaled down. Trade conflicts between the US and China constitute a separate negative factor. According to the OECD’s estimate, imposition by the US of a 25 percent duty on Chinese imports and adoption by China of similar measures may cost the global economy, US economy and Chinese economy 0.5 percent of GDP, 0.8 percent of GDP and 1 percent of GDP, respectively. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, foreign trade, terms of trade, regional pattern |
| JEL: | F10 F13 F19 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2019-967&r=all |