nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2019‒10‒07
fifteen papers chosen by
J. David Brown
United States Census Bureau

  1. Looking at Creativity from East to West: Risk Taking and Intrinsic Motivation in Socially and Culturally Diverse Countries. By Giuseppe Attanasi; Ylenia Curci; Patrick Llerena; Maria del Pino Ramos-Sosa; Adriana Carolina Pinate; Giulia Urso
  2. The impact of institutional quality on manufacturing sectors in Russia: panel data analysis By Michael Alexeev; Andrey Chernyavskiy
  3. The Impact of Unemployment on Economic Growth in China By Karikari-Apau, Ellen; Abeti, Wilson
  4. Determinants of Developing Countries' Export Upgrading: The Role of China and Productive Investment By Yue Teng; Dic Lo
  5. Effects of tax-benefit policies on the income distribution and work incentives in Estonia By Alari Paulus; Caroline Klein
  6. State-Owned Enterprises in Bosnia and Herzegovina: Assessing Performance and Oversight By Bobana Cegar; Francisco J Parodi
  7. The relationship between birth order, sex, home scholarly culture and youths' reading practices in promoting lifelong learning for sustainable development in Vietnam By Trung Tran; Thi Thu Hien Le; Thi Thuy Trang Nguyen; Anh Giang Pham; Thi Hanh Vu; Minh Hoang Nguyen; Ha My Vuong; Thu Trang Vuong; Phuong Hanh Hoang; Manh Toan Ho; Quan-Hoang Vuong
  8. The study on the participation willingness of mortgage loan of rural real estate based on the risk perception By Chao Lin
  9. A Replication of “The Role of Intermediaries in Facilitating Trade” (Journal of International Economics, 2011) By Jianhua Duan; Xuefeng Qian; Kuntal K. Das; Laura Meriluoto; W. Robert Reed
  10. China’s Impact on Global Financial Markets By Isha Agarwal; Grace Weishi Gu; Eswar S. Prasad
  11. Applying Bayesian Model Averaging to Characterise Urban Residential Stock Turnover Dynamics By Zhou, W.; O’Neill, E.; Moncaster, A.; Reiner, D.; Guthrie, P.
  12. Demographic Aging, Industrial Policy, and Chinese Economic Growth By Michael Dotsey
  13. Republic of Moldova; Fourth and Fifth Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility and Extended Fund Facility Arrangements, Completion of the Inflation Consultation, and Request for Extension of the Arrangements and Rephasing of Access-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Moldova By International Monetary Fund
  14. Corruption as Collateral By Min Ouyang; Shengxing Zhang
  15. Some Issues on the Vietnam Economic Growth. By Phuong Le; Cuong Le Van; Anh Ngoc Nguyen; Ngoc Minh Nguyen; Phu Nguyen-Van; Dinh-Tri Vo

  1. By: Giuseppe Attanasi; Ylenia Curci; Patrick Llerena; Maria del Pino Ramos-Sosa; Adriana Carolina Pinate; Giulia Urso
    Abstract: This article presents a mixed-methods research in the field of creativity. By making use of experiments and a questionnaire, it analyses how creativity is affected by three factors: i) motivation, ii) individuals’ attitudes towards risk and ambiguity and iii) social context. Each one of these factors has been extensively investigated in the theoretical and empirical literature getting to results still open to discussion. In particular, this research focuses on two aspects. First, we try to shed some light on the controversial findings linking risk taking and creativity that exist in the economic and psychology literature. To do so, we test the hypotheses that self perception of creative abilities may play a role in establishing a riskcreativity positive correlation. Second, being the three factors strongly influenced by culture, the study investigates whether the impacts on creativity may differ in diverse geographical locations. Following Attanasi et al. (2019), we exploit data from experiments performed in main cities of one eastern and one western country: Ho Chi Minh city (Vietnam) and Strasbourg (France). The information to build the risk and ambiguity factor derive from risk and ambiguity elicitation via lotteries. To account for motivation, different organizational scenarios are set in experimental treatments (financial incentives vs non financial incentives to collaborate). Finally, information on social context and self perception of creative abilities are collected through a self administrated questionnaire. In our analysis, we find that risk aversion, social habits and leisure activities have a positive effect on the creative performance of the French participants, while for Vietnamese the intrinsic motivation and the perception of their own creative capacities are positive correlated with creative scores. Our results suggest that in a country like France, social context has a strong influence on individual creativity, while for Vietnam individual features play a role in creativity, suggesting that the socio-cultural context has different impacts on creativity.
    Keywords: Cexperiments, risk, ambiguity, self-perceived creativity, motivation, geographical location, social context.
    JEL: I23 O31 O32
    Date: 2019
  2. By: Michael Alexeev (Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana and the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), Moscow, Russia); Andrey Chernyavskiy (National Research University Higher School of Economics, (HSE) University of Moscow, Russia)
    Abstract: We use the 2005-2012 data for Russian regions to show that higher regional institutional quality strongly benefits institutionally-dependent manufacturing sectors in terms of both gross output levels and growth rates. Unlike the existing literature on this topic, which uses cross-sectional or pooled specifications, we focus on panel data analysis. This approach mitigates endogeneity concerns and allows for calculating full marginal effects of institutions on manufacturing sectors with different degrees of institutional dependence. Our results imply that significant institutional improvements are needed in order for the Russian economy to diversify away from heavy reliance on oil and natural gas.
    Keywords: relationship specificity, institutional quality, allocation of industry, Russian economy
    JEL: D02 O14 P27
    Date: 2019–04
  3. By: Karikari-Apau, Ellen; Abeti, Wilson
    Abstract: Economic growth which is considered as one of the best indicator of measuring the robustness of every economy is essential in understanding its relationship with unemployment which is an important macroeconomic indicator that reflects the incompetence of any economy to make full use of its human resources. Hence, a macro-economic secondary and time series data was extracted from the World Development Indicator (WDI) for the period of 1991-2018 in China. In conducting the econometric analysis of the study, both the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test and Phillips Perron Test were employed to test and confirm the stationary level of the variables of study; the Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) cointegration and the ARDL Bounds test were employed to test for the short-run and the long-run cointegration of the variables of study since both variable were stationary at first difference I (1). The finding of the study reveals that there are negative short-run and a long-run relationship between unemployment and economic growth. However, Granger causality Test also reveals that both unemployment and economic growth do not impact each other.
    Keywords: Granger causality, Economic growth, Unemployment rate, Stationarity and Cointegration
    JEL: O11
    Date: 2019–05–24
  4. By: Yue Teng (School of Social Sciences, University of Trento and University of Florence, Italy); Dic Lo (Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK)
    Abstract: This paper explores the determinants of developing countries' export upgrading measured by export sophistication. In particular, as a response to the recent debate on China's impact on developing countries' industrialisation, we examine a new hypothesis that the considerable growth in developing countries' trade with China may serve as a source of productive investment for their export upgrading. Dynamic panel estimations based on HS 6-digit export data on 62 developing countries during 1995-2014 show the positive effects of human capital, productive investment, and absolute gains from trade with China measured by income terms of trade vis-®§-vis China. Mediation analysis finds that the positive effect of trade with China on export upgrading takes effect largely through its enhancing effect on productive investment, which supports our hypothesis. By contrast, China's direct export-downgrading impact is minor. Our findings suggest that, for developing countries, China serves more as a stimulator of capital accumulation for industrial development than a competitor in manufacturing market or a predator of natural resources. This provides an alternative to the widespread argument of China's crowding-out and re-primarisation impact on developing countries. The priority for developing countries is therefore the appropriate use of the gains from trade for productive purposes.
    Keywords: export sophistication, developing countries, China, terms of trade, productive investment
    JEL: F14 O14 O19 O25
    Date: 2019–09
  5. By: Alari Paulus; Caroline Klein
    Abstract: The paper studies the impact of tax-benefit policies on the distribution of household incomes and work incentives in Estonia. It makes use of microsimulation modelling approach and applies the EU tax-benefit model EUROMOD to quantify the first-order effects of policy changes in 2016-2018 and of a range of alternative policy scenarios aimed at increasing the adequacy of social benefits. According to the simulations, 2016-2017 policies increased household incomes relative to inflation and were both poverty and inequality reducing. Alternative policy scenarios indicate that, among the considered options, increasing the generosity of the subsistence benefit and relaxing its means test by halving the withdrawal rate (currently at 100%), would have the highest first-order impact for a given fiscal cost. However, these measures would also weaken work incentives, which points to a conventional equity-efficiency trade-off. Other simulations demonstrate some scope for improving work incentives at low and middle-income levels together with modest reductions in poverty and inequality.This Working Paper relates to the 2017 OECD Economic Survey of Estonia( nia-economic-snapshot/)
    Keywords: Estonia, income distribution, tax-benefit policies, work incentives
    JEL: D31 H23 I38
    Date: 2019–10–04
  6. By: Bobana Cegar; Francisco J Parodi
    Abstract: Based on a new database of State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) financial statements, we find that SOEs in Bosnia and Herzegovina are mostly in poor financial shape. We estimate the overall size and composition of the SOE sector, and identify individual companies that affect fiscal and macroeconomic performance. Financial analysis suggests that SOEs are not contributing enough to the economy. We also review the SOE governance framework and find that governments do not exercise their ownership function in line with WB/OECD guidelines. Reforms to the governance frameworks are necessary to foster transparency and improve accountability. More fundamental reform of the SOE sector might increase overall GDP by 3 percent per year.
    Date: 2019–09–20
  7. By: Trung Tran; Thi Thu Hien Le; Thi Thuy Trang Nguyen; Anh Giang Pham; Thi Hanh Vu; Minh Hoang Nguyen; Ha My Vuong; Thu Trang Vuong; Phuong Hanh Hoang; Manh Toan Ho; Quan-Hoang Vuong
    Abstract: Book reading is an important factor contributing to children's cognitive development and education for sustainable development. However, in a developing country like Vietnam, statistics have reported a low figure in book reading: only 1.2 books a year. This research study used a dataset of 1676 observations of junior high school students from Northern Vietnam to explore students' reading behavior and its association with demographic factors, and the family's reading culture. Data analysis suggests the older the student gets, the less inclined they are to read, and being female and having hobbies of low sensory stimulation are linked to higher preference for reading. Regarding scholarly culture at home, students who read more varied types of books and spend more time on books are correlated with higher reading interest. Reading habits are also positively reinforced by the capacity to access books and parental book reading.
    Keywords: Education for sustainable developments; Gender; Junior high school students; Reading abilities; Reading practices; Sustainable education; Vietnam
    Date: 2019–08
  8. By: Chao Lin
    Abstract: The mortgage right of rural real estate is one of the legal and important property rights of the peasants, which is prohibited to be mortgaged because of rural housing land institute in China. In reality the financial demand of the peasants is huge in rural area, which need more invest into personal consumption, agriculture upgrading. So since 2016 the central government starts the pilot reform of mortgage load of rural real estate, which is beneficial to activate the land asset, increase the financing channel, promoting the strategy of rural revitalization. However, the peasants will take the risk of homeless as result from the uncertainty of public policy, sudden events, loan defaults. So the risk perception will have a great relationship with the participation willingness of the mortgage of rural real estate. Firstly, the paper does the theoretical mode between the risk perception and participation willingness and derives the hypothesis. Secondly the paper will conduct the Binary Logistic analysis by the ca. 600 questionnaires from Shanxi, Henan, Anhui province. Thirdly the paper will discuss the results of the quantitative analysis and suggest the related reform advices.
    Keywords: Mortgage load; Participation willingness; Risk Perception; Rural real estate
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2019–01–01
  9. By: Jianhua Duan; Xuefeng Qian; Kuntal K. Das (University of Canterbury); Laura Meriluoto (University of Canterbury); W. Robert Reed (University of Canterbury)
    Abstract: This study replicates Ahn, Khandelwal, and Wei’s (2011) model of intermediary trade. Our study produces two main results. First, we are able to reproduce empirical evidence for AKW’s three main predictions for Chinese exports. This is impressive because much of the data for our replication are independently sourced. However, when we subject their model to additional tests, we find that the evidence is not robust. Using more recently available data to test their first prediction, we estimate coefficients that are wrong-signed and significant. When we re-analyze the evidence supporting their second and third predictions, we find that the full sample results mask significant heterogeneity across Chinese regions. In many cases, key coefficients are insignificant. In a few cases, they are wrong-signed and significant. Finally, using multiple versions of a key variable measuring the number of required import documents by country, we discover that the results are not robust across versions.
    Keywords: Intermediaries, Exports, Productivity, Heterogeneous firms, Chin
    JEL: F1
    Date: 2019–10–01
  10. By: Isha Agarwal; Grace Weishi Gu; Eswar S. Prasad
    Abstract: We analyze shifts in the structure of China’s capital outflows over the past decade. The composition of gross outflows has shifted from accumulation of foreign exchange reserves by the central bank to nonofficial outflows. Unlocking the enormous pool of domestic savings could have a significant impact on global financial markets as China continues to open up its capital account and as domestic investors look abroad for returns and diversification. We analyze in detail the allocation patterns of Chinese institutional investors (IIs), which constitute the main channel for foreign portfolio investment outflows. We find that, relative to benchmarks based on market capitalization, Chinese IIs underweight developed countries and high-tech sectors in their international portfolio allocations but overinvest in high-tech stocks in developed countries. To further examine Chinese IIs’ joint decisions on destination country-sector pairs, we construct continuous measures of revealed relative comparative advantage and disadvantage in a sector for a country based on trade patterns. We find that, in their foreign portfolio allocations, Chinese IIs overweight sectors in which China has a comparative disadvantage. Moreover, Chinese IIs concentrate such investments in countries that have higher relative comparative advantage in those sectors. Diversification and information advantages related to foreign imports to China seem to influence patterns of foreign portfolio allocations, while yield-seeking and learning motives do not.
    JEL: F2 F3 F4
    Date: 2019–09
  11. By: Zhou, W.; O’Neill, E.; Moncaster, A.; Reiner, D.; Guthrie, P.
    Abstract: Building stock is a key determinant in building energy and China is the largest producer of CO2 emissions and the largest consumer of energy and building energy, so any effective energy and climate policy will need to address this key driver of energy use. However, official statistics on total floor area of urban residential stock in China only exist up to 2006. Previous studies estimating Chinese urban residential stock size and energy use made various questionable methodological assumptions and only produced deterministic results. We present a Bayesian approach to characterise the stock turnover dynamics and estimate stock size uncertainties. Firstly, a probabilistic dynamic building stock turnover model is developed to describe the building aging and demolition process governed by a hazard function specified by a parametric survival model. Secondly, using five candidate parametric survival models, the building stock turnover model is simulated through Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to obtain posterior distributions of model-specific parameters, estimate marginal likelihood, and make predictions on stock size. Finally, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is applied to create a model ensemble that combines the model-specific posterior predictive distributions of the stock evolution pathway in proportion to posterior model probabilities. This Bayesian modelling framework and its results in the form of probability distributions of annual total stock and age-specific substocks, can provide a solid basis for further modelling and analysis of policy trade-offs across embodied-versus-operational energy consumption and carbon emissions of buildings in the context of sector-wide transitions aimed at decarbonising buildings.
    Keywords: building stock, lifetime distribution, Bayesian Model Averaging, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, embodied energy, operational energy, China
    JEL: C11 C61 O18 R21
    Date: 2019–10–02
  12. By: Michael Dotsey (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)
    Abstract: We examine the role of demographics and changing industrial policies in accounting for the rapid rise in household savings and in per capita output growth in China since the mid 1970s. The demographic changes come from reductions in the fertility rate and increases in the life expectancy, while the industrial policies take many forms. These policies cause important structural changes; first benefiting private labor-intensive firms by incentivizing them to increase their share of Chinese output, and later on benefiting capital-intensive firms resulting in an increase the share of capital devoted to heavy industries. We conduct our analysis in a general equilibrium economy that also features endogenous human capital investment. We calibrate the model to match key economic variables of the Chinese economy and show that demographic changes and industrial policies both contributed to increases in savings and output growth but with differing intensities and at different horizons. We further demonstrate the importance of endogenous human capital investment in accounting for the economic growth in China.
    Date: 2019
  13. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: The economy continued to strengthen. Robust growth in 2018 was propelled by infrastructure and private investments, while private consumption continued to expand into 2019, supported by growing real incomes and bank lending recovery. Inflation slowed in 2018, but pressures are building up. The labor market improved significantly, with strengthening labor force participation, employment growth, and falling unemployment.
    Date: 2019–09–25
  14. By: Min Ouyang (Tsinghua SEM); Shengxing Zhang (London School of Economics)
    Abstract: We explore the role of corruption in assisting finance, when conventional collateralized lending is limited in economies like China. We build an agency-friction theory, in which corruption helps the bank to overcome the soft-budget constraint and induce entrepreneurs to invest in high quality projects and repay their debts. When the anti-corruption campaign causes collateral damage on corruption-backed finance, banks' search for yields leads to alternative lending based on pledging physical asset or stock shares; accordingly, the price of physical assets and the amount of equity pledge rise. We examine Chinese data at the regional level and the firm level, and find evidence supporting our theory. We argue the anti-corruption campaign alone without further financial-market institutional reforms may hinder financial intermediation, giving rise to undesirable consequences.
    Date: 2019
  15. By: Phuong Le; Cuong Le Van; Anh Ngoc Nguyen; Ngoc Minh Nguyen; Phu Nguyen-Van; Dinh-Tri Vo
    Abstract: We first consider the question of the productivity of the economy of Vietnam at the macro level. With theoretical models and empirical data, we find out the Leontief production function, and its associated TFP (Total Factor Productivity). We show that the TFP is one of the main engines of Vietnam economic growth. However when we move to the micro level with the capital productivity of 2,835 State Owned Enterprises (SOEs), we discover there exists an over utilization of the physical capital and more importantly, diversion of the capital stock. This diversion may be due to a waste of capital stocks or to a special form of bribery we call "hidden overhead". To summarize, economic growth in Vietnam my be enhanced by investing in the founding components of TFP such as new technology, Human Capital, better organisational system, but also by fighting the bribery and the over utilization of the physical capital.
    Keywords: Productivity; Production Function; TFP; Hidden Overhead.
    JEL: E60 O11 P21
    Date: 2019

This nep-tra issue is ©2019 by J. David Brown. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.