nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2019‒09‒02
seven papers chosen by
J. David Brown
United States Census Bureau

  1. Economic integration and macroeconomic shocks in Eurasia By Gharleghi, Behrooz
  2. Analyzing the Dynamic Impact of Electricity Futures on Revenue and Risk of Renewable Energy in China By Yue Zhang; Arash Farnoosh
  3. Extreme Temperature and Extreme Violence across Age and Gender: Evidence from Russia By Popova, Olga; Otrachshenko, Vladimir; Tavares, José
  4. China’s Industrial Policy: an Empirical Evaluation By Panle Jia Barwick; Myrto Kalouptsidi; Nahim Bin Zahur
  5. Markets and Markup: A New Empirical Framework and Evidence on Exporters from China By Corsetti, Giancarlo; Crowley, Meredith A; Han, Lu; Song, Huasheng
  7. Tax Farming – Pro ET Contra By Dmitry L. Komyagin

  1. By: Gharleghi, Behrooz
    Abstract: The main objective of this research is to make an assessment of the symmetry/asymmetry of underlying macroeconomic shocks in the Eurasia region. A model is developed to distinguish structural global supply shocks, regional supply shocks, and domestic supply shocks using a reduced-form structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR). Empirical results reveal that the correlation between domestic and regional shocks, as well as between domestic and global shocks, are clearly divided into two groups of countries: (i) domestic (country-specific) supply shocks are more correlated with global shocks in the European part of the region (Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, and Ukraine; with the exception of Mongolia here); and (ii) domestic shocks are mostly correlated with regional shocks in the Central Asian part of the region (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Azerbaijan; with the exception of Moldova here). This has implications for the Chinese economy in the region.
    Keywords: Eurasia, China, Macroeconomic shocks
    JEL: E50 E60
    Date: 2019–08–01
  2. By: Yue Zhang (China University of Petroleum-Beijing); Arash Farnoosh (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles - IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles)
    Abstract: Though the electricity market in China has gone through several reforms in the last few decades, the market is still not completely liberalized. The wholesale prices are regulated and for renewable it is based on feed-in tariff; there is not yet a competitive spot or derivative market concerning the generation side. Furthermore, with great potential, renewable energy is being gradually promoted by the government to compete freely with conventional energies. However, it is hard for a renewable generator to survive without subsidy. So, in this paper we propose a new round of revolution in power sector to introduce electricity futures into China with the expectation of perfecting the market and providing a proper hedging tool for renewable plants. We make an estimation of the risk premium and then simulate the futures prices in China's market. To support the establishment of the futures contracts, we also propose two pricing mechanisms: Demand-side price & Opportunity cost price and study their effects on the futures. Finally, some suggestions with regard to the construction of futures market in China and the operational strategy for renewable plants are given.
    Keywords: Electricity Market,Spot Prices,Hedging Strategy,Futures Prices
    Date: 2019–09
  3. By: Popova, Olga; Otrachshenko, Vladimir; Tavares, José
    Abstract: We examine the relationship between extreme temperatures and violent mortality across Russian regions, with implications for the social costs of climate change. We assess the unequal impact of temperature shocks across gender and age groups by exploring a dataset on temperature and violence in Russia, between the years 1989 and 2015. Hot days lead to an increase in both female and male victims, one hot day resulting in the loss of 1,579 person-years of life for men, and 642 for women. However, the likelihood of victimization during weekends rises noticeably for women, with women between 25 and 59 more victimized on weekends. Our results suggest that female victimization on hot days would be mitigated by increases in regional income and job opportunities, and on cold days, by decreasing the consumption of spirits.
    Keywords: Violence,Gender Homicide,Extreme Temperatures,Russia
    JEL: I14 K42 P52 Q54
    Date: 2019
  4. By: Panle Jia Barwick; Myrto Kalouptsidi; Nahim Bin Zahur
    Abstract: Despite the historic prevalence of industrial policy and its current popularity, few empirical studies directly evaluate its welfare consequences. This paper examines an important industrial policy in China in the 2000s, aiming to propel the country's shipbuilding industry to the largest globally. Using comprehensive data on shipyards worldwide and a dynamic model of firm entry, exit, investment, and production, we find that the scale of the policy was massive and boosted China's domestic investment, entry, and world market share dramatically. On the other hand, it created sizable distortions and led to increased industry fragmentation and idleness. The effectiveness of different policy instruments is mixed: production and investment subsidies can be justified by market share considerations, but entry subsidies are wasteful. Finally, the distortions could have been significantly reduced by implementing counter-cyclical policies and by targeting subsidies towards more productive firms.
    JEL: L1 L5 L6 O2
    Date: 2019–07
  5. By: Corsetti, Giancarlo; Crowley, Meredith A; Han, Lu; Song, Huasheng
    Abstract: Firms that dominate global trade export to multiple countries and frequently change their foreign destinations. We develop an estimator of the destination-specific markup elasticity to the exchange rate that controls for endogenous market selection. To proxy for firms' power in local markets, we introduce a new classification of products based on Chinese linguistics that distinguishes between highly and less differentiated goods. Using Chinese customs data, we show that controlling for selectivity unveils significant pricing-to-market for highly differentiated goods. Measured in the importer's currency, the prices of highly differentiated goods are more stable than those of less differentiated products.
    Keywords: China; differentiated goods; Exchange Rates; markup elasticity; pricing-to-market; product classification; Trade Elasticity
    JEL: F14 F31 F41
    Date: 2019–08
  6. By: Liudmila Kitrar (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Tamara Lipkind (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The paper presents the Business Climate Indicator (BCI) in the Russian manufacturing including the medium and high-tech (MHT) manufacturing industries. The authors explain the feasibility of a new alternative measure that summarizes common information of business tendency surveys cleared up of specific fluctuations in individual variables, and give arguments to prove its effectiveness. The resulting BCI reflects the quantitative changes in manufacturing growth more accurately and with a lead compared to the traditional confidence indicator. Identification of the BCI cyclic profile and its visualization through a tracer demonstrate all significant waves of manufacturers’ optimism and pessimism for the period from January 2005 to January 2019. To construct BCI-MHT, the units of observation and the input information are divided into three groups according to the technological level of industries. The dynamics of BCI-MHT is close to those of BCI; however, during the protracted recession in 2016-2018, the sentiments of manufacturers of medium- and high-tech products were less pessimistic compared with the sentiments of all manufacturers.
    Keywords: business tendency surveys, business climate indicator, medium- and high-tech industries, short-term cycle
    JEL: C38 E32
    Date: 2019
  7. By: Dmitry L. Komyagin (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This article investigates issues related to a unique experiment carried out in Russia in unifying the collection of all obligatory payments. It analyzes the legal aspects of this approach and presents the variety of methods for collecting such payments. Notions of budget revenue and sources of revenue are considered. Special attention is paid to the forms and practices of tax farming and other obligatory payments. The article concludes that the budget legislation actually specifies various fiscal charges as sources of budget revenue. The real source of public revenue are the assets and resources making up the national wealth. Historical examples show that despite the generally accepted denial, tax farming is a normal method and can be applied along with the state monopoly and tax administration. The cases when tax farming is transformed into a state monopoly or excise and vice versa are not rare. Tax farming, which has continued to this day, is also referred to as parafiscal charges or quasi taxes
    Keywords: taxes; obligatory payments; fiscal charges, tax farming; state regalia, state monopoly; budget; public revenue; sources of revenue
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2019

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