nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2019‒08‒26
eleven papers chosen by
J. David Brown
United States Census Bureau

  1. The Role of National Diaspora for Internationalization of Emerging Market Firms: the Perspective of Chinese Business in Russia By Panibratov, A.; Rysakova, L.
  2. The Effects of Primary Care Chronic-Disease Management in Rural China By Yiwei Chen; Hui Ding; Min Yu; Jieming Zhong; Ruying Hu; Xiangyu Chen; Chunmei Wang; Kaixu Xie; Karen Eggleston
  3. China's monetary policy and the loan market : How strong is the credit channel in China? By Breitenlechner, Max; Nuutilainen, Riikka
  4. A Bivariate Forecasting Model For Russian GDP Under Structural Changes In Monetary Policy and Long-Term Growth By Fokin, Nikita; Polbin, Andrey
  5. Automation Impacts on China's Polarized Job Market By Haohui 'Caron' Chen; Xun Li; Morgan Frank; Xiaozhen Qin; Weipan Xu; Manuel Cebrian; Iyad Rahwan
  6. China's Industrial Policy: an Empirical Evaluation By Jia Barwick, Panle; Kalouptsidi, Myrto; Zahur, Nahim
  7. Internationalization Strategy of Japanese MNCs in Russia By Panibratov, A; Sato
  8. People’s Republic of China; 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement and Statement by the Executive Director for China By International Monetary Fund
  9. Spatial Misallocation: Evaluating Place-Based Policies Using a Natural Experiment in China By Binkai Chen; Ming Lu; Christopher Timmins; Kuanhu Xiang
  10. Enhancing the Demand for Labour survey by including skills from online job advertisements using model-assisted calibration By Maciej Ber\k{e}sewicz; Greta Bia{\l}kowska; Krzysztof Marcinkowski; Magdalena Ma\'slak; Piotr Opiela; Robert Pater; Katarzyna Zadroga
  11. The Impact of Management of Diverse Talent Groups on Firm Performance in the Russian Context By Khasieva, D.

  1. By: Panibratov, A.; Rysakova, L.
    Abstract: In this paper we contribute in the literature on the role of international diaspora in the economic development. Although extant studies show a positive impact of diasporas for their countries of origin, little studies show the role of foreign diasporas for the recipient countries, especially at the firm-level. This paper focuses on the impact of Chinese diaspora on Russian firms with Chinese employees. We analyze the literature about legitimacy measurement and extract factors that influence this construct in order to provide a scale. Thereafter we expect to check whether and to which extent Chinese employees influences legitimacy of Russian firms.
    Keywords: diaspora, legitimacy, migrants, emerging markets,
    Date: 2019
  2. By: Yiwei Chen; Hui Ding; Min Yu; Jieming Zhong; Ruying Hu; Xiangyu Chen; Chunmei Wang; Kaixu Xie; Karen Eggleston
    Abstract: Health systems globally face increasing morbidity and mortality from chronic disease, yet many—especially in low- and middle-income countries—lack strong primary care. We analyze China’s efforts to promote primary care management for insured rural Chinese with chronic disease, analyzing unique panel data for over 70,000 rural Chinese 2011-2015. Our study design uses variation in management intensity generated by administrative and geographic boundaries—regression analyses based on 14 pairs of villages within two kilometers of each other but managed by different townships. Utilizing this plausibly exogenous variation, we find that patients residing in a village within a township with more intensive primary care management, compared to neighbors with less intensive management, had more primary care visits, fewer specialist visits, fewer hospital admissions, and lower inpatient spending. No such effects are evident in a placebo treatment year. Exploring the mechanism, we find that patients with more intensive primary care management exhibited better drug adherence as measured by filled prescriptions. A back-of-the-envelope estimate of welfare suggests that the resource savings from avoided inpatient admissions substantially outweigh the costs of the program.
    JEL: I11 I18
    Date: 2019–07
  3. By: Breitenlechner, Max; Nuutilainen, Riikka
    Abstract: We study the credit channel of Chinese monetary policy in a structural vector autoregressive framework. Using combinations of zero and sign restrictions, we identify monetary policy shocks linked to supply and demand responses in the loan market. Our results show that policy shocks coinciding with loan supply effects account for roughly 10 percent of output dynamics after two years, while loan demand effects represent up to 7 percent of output dynamics depending on the policy measure. The credit channel thus constitutes an important and economically relevant transmission channel for monetary policy in China. Monetary policy in China also accounts for a relatively high share of business cycle dynamics.
    JEL: C32 E44 E52
    Date: 2019–08–09
  4. By: Fokin, Nikita; Polbin, Andrey
    Abstract: This paper estimates a bivariate econometric model to describe Russia’s real GDP while taking account of the Russian economy’s high dependence on oil prices, monetary policy regime change, and economic growth slowdown. We follow the theory of long-run neutrality of monetary policy and assume that the Bank of Russia’s monetary policy regime change in late 2014 has influenced only the short-run relationship between Russia’s GDP and oil prices, but long-run multiplier is invariant to monetary policy. The paper also attempts to take account of the economic growth slowdown in last decade. The model has demonstrated good forecasting performance.
    Keywords: monetary policy, Russian economy, terms of trade, ARX model, ECM model, structural breaks
    JEL: E32 E37 E52
    Date: 2019–04
  5. By: Haohui 'Caron' Chen; Xun Li; Morgan Frank; Xiaozhen Qin; Weipan Xu; Manuel Cebrian; Iyad Rahwan
    Abstract: When facing threats from automation, a worker residing in a large Chinese city might not be as lucky as a worker in a large U.S. city, depending on the type of large city in which one resides. Empirical studies found that large U.S. cities exhibit resilience to automation impacts because of the increased occupational and skill specialization. However, in this study, we observe polarized responses in large Chinese cities to automation impacts. The polarization might be attributed to the elaborate master planning of the central government, through which cities are assigned with different industrial goals to achieve globally optimal economic success and, thus, a fast-growing economy. By dividing Chinese cities into two groups based on their administrative levels and premium resources allocated by the central government, we find that Chinese cities follow two distinct industrial development trajectories, one trajectory owning government support leads to a diversified industrial structure and, thus, a diversified job market, and the other leads to specialty cities and, thus, a specialized job market. By revisiting the automation impacts on a polarized job market, we observe a Simpson's paradox through which a larger city of a diversified job market results in greater resilience, whereas larger cities of specialized job markets are more susceptible. These findings inform policy makers to deploy appropriate policies to mitigate the polarized automation impacts.
    Date: 2019–08
  6. By: Jia Barwick, Panle; Kalouptsidi, Myrto; Zahur, Nahim
    Abstract: Despite the historic prevalence of industrial policy and its current popularity, few empirical studies directly evaluate its welfare consequences. This paper examines an important industrial policy in China in the 2000s, aiming to propel the country's shipbuilding industry to the largest globally. Using comprehensive data on shipyards worldwide and a dynamic model of firm entry, exit, investment, and production, we find that the scale of the policy was massive and boosted China's domestic investment, entry, and world market share dramatically. On the other hand, it created sizable distortions and led to increased industry fragmentation and idleness. The effectiveness of different policy instruments is mixed: production and investment subsidies can be justified by market share considerations, but entry subsidies are wasteful. Finally, the distortions could have been significantly reduced by implementing counter-cyclical policies and by targeting subsidies towards more productive firms.
    Keywords: China; dynamics; industrial policy; investment; welfare
    JEL: L1 L5 L6 O2
    Date: 2019–07
  7. By: Panibratov, A; Sato
    Abstract: The paper offers empirical tests and is engaged with the extension of the integration-responsiveness (I-R) framework given the injection of Cultural distance. The study identifies how Cultural distance affects Global integration and Local responsiveness in terms of the Internationalization strategy of Japanese MNCs in Russia by setting a special., emphasis on Japanese MNCs in Manufacturing, and Services/Retail in Russia based on case study research with surveys. The study on the linkage of Cultural distance and I-R framework with the typology is still lacking. The contexts of Japanese MNCs and the Russian market have been ignored in the existing research. We believe that outcomes of the research contribute to the extension of the I-R framework and that can be replicable to similar cases with the generalization of the uniqueness of Japanese MNCs in Russia.
    Keywords: cultural distance, global integration, internationalization strategy, Japan, local responsiveness, MNC, Russia,
    Date: 2019
  8. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: After the slowdown in 2018, reflecting financial regulatory strengthening and softening external demand, growth stabilized in early 2019. Financial deleveraging and reduced interconnectedness between banks and non-banks have helped contain the build-up of financial risks, but vulnerabilities remain elevated and progress on rebalancing is mixed. While a moderate slowdown is expected in 2019, uncertainty around trade tensions remains high and risks are tilted to the downside.
    Keywords: Economic indicators;Financial statistics;Financial institutions;Fiscal policy;Gross domestic product;trade tension,percent of GDP,PBC,SOEs,off-budget
    Date: 2019–08–09
  9. By: Binkai Chen; Ming Lu; Christopher Timmins; Kuanhu Xiang
    Abstract: Using the mass closure of development zones in 2004 as a natural experiment, we examine the causal effect of development zones on firm level TFP in China. The difference-in-difference estimator shows that on average, loss of development zone policies results in 6.5% loss of firms’ TFP. Locational heterogeneity is important. Within 500 kilometers from the three major seaports in China, closure of zones reduced firm-level TFP by 9.62%, whereas closure of zones farther away did not show significant effects. Market potential and local within-industry spillover effects can explain much of this locational heterogeneity. We conclude that China’s strategy of using development zones as a place-based policy to encourage inland development may have led to spatial misallocation.
    JEL: O53 R1 R58
    Date: 2019–08
  10. By: Maciej Ber\k{e}sewicz; Greta Bia{\l}kowska; Krzysztof Marcinkowski; Magdalena Ma\'slak; Piotr Opiela; Robert Pater; Katarzyna Zadroga
    Abstract: In the article we describe an enhancement to the Demand for Labour (DL) survey conducted by Statistics Poland, which involves the inclusion of skills obtained from online job advertisements. The main goal is to provide estimates of the demand for skills (competences), which is missing in the DL survey. To achieve this, we apply a data integration approach combining traditional calibration with the LASSO-assisted approach to correct representation error in the online data. Faced with the lack of access to unit-level data from the DL survey, we use estimated population totals and propose a~bootstrap approach that accounts for the uncertainty of totals reported by Statistics Poland. We show that the calibration estimator assisted with LASSO outperforms traditional calibration in terms of standard errors and reduces representation bias in skills observed in online job ads. Our empirical results show that online data significantly overestimate interpersonal, managerial and self-organization skills while underestimating technical and physical skills. This is mainly due to the under-representation of occupations categorised as Craft and Related Trades Workers and Plant and Machine Operators and Assemblers.
    Date: 2019–08
  11. By: Khasieva, D.
    Abstract: During last 10 years there has been a significant rise in the number of research, which explores gender diversity as an important business asset. These studies proved the connection between women presence in the team and firm performance, innovation level of firm, and its competitive ability. These findings made diversity one of the leading directions in the development of human resource management practices. Our study is dedicated to exploring the application of talent management, as a part of human resource management, to women with respect to their specific features. Our goal is to evaluate how these practices can impact on firm performance and to extract factors, which regulate diversity adaptation process. With this purpose, the literature review was performed. In this working paper, we present the key points of literature review in field of diversity management and talent management, identify the research gap, formulate research questions, set research framework, and ground them in the existing theories.
    Keywords: talent management practices, talent management practices, gender diversity, female talents, Russian context,
    Date: 2019

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