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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Alexandra Bykova (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Rumen Dobrinsky (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Richard Grieveson (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Doris Hanzl-Weiss (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Peter Havlik (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Mario Holzner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Gabor Hunya (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sebastian Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Isilda Mara (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Olga Pindyuk (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Leon Podkaminer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sandor Richter (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Hermine Vidovic (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Goran Vuksic (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Growth in much of CESEE will remain healthy by post-crisis standards, but has passed its peak. We expect most economies to slow from here, reflecting weaker external demand and domestic capacity constraints. Global trade tensions, structural weakness in the eurozone and Brexit all pose downside risks to our forecasts. |
| Keywords: | CESEE, economic forecast, Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, Southeast Europe, Western Balkans, new EU Member States, CIS, Russia, Ukraine, Romania, Czech Republic, Hungary, Turkey, Serbia, convergence, business cycle, overheating, external risks, trade war, EU funds, private consumption, credit, investment, exports, FDI, labour markets, unemployment, employment, wage growth, unit labour costs, migration, inflation, savings rate, financial crisis, financial markets, direct lending, leverage, central banks |
| JEL: | E20 E31 E32 F15 F21 F22 F32 F51 G21 H60 J20 J30 J61 O47 O52 O57 P24 P27 P33 P52 |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:fpaper:fc:spring2019&r=all |
| By: | Wu, Jian-Xin; He, Ling-Yun; Zhang, ZhongXiang |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the long-run relationship between income and urban air pollution using a joint distribution dynamics approach. This approach enables to estimate the transition process and long-run distribution and to examine the mechanisms behind the evolution process. The approach is applied to a unique panel data of CO2, SO2 and PM2.5 (particulate matter smaller than 2.5μm) for 286 Chinese cities over the period 2002-2014. Strong persistence in the transition dynamics suggests that this convergence process may require a long time. The distribution dynamics analyses indicate that multiple equilibria are the major characteristics in the long-run relationship between income and urban air pollution in China, which implies that inter-regional technology spillover may be an important way to accelerate convergence. Our results further support the existence of poverty-environmental trap in PM2.5 concentrations. Thus, new environmental models are expected to be developed to explain this new stylized fact. The findings provide strong support for taking more aggressive measures that consider income and urban environment simultaneously to reduce poverty and air pollutions together in the Chinese cities. |
| Keywords: | Research Methods/ Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2019–03–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:feemth:285027&r=all |
| By: | Hai-Anh H. Dang (Survey Unit, Development Data Group, World Bank); Michael M. Lokshin (Survey Unit, Development Data Group, World Bank); Kseniya Abanokova (Higher School of Economics, National Research University, Russia); Maurizio Bussolo (ECA Chief Economist’s office, World Bank) |
| Abstract: | Russia offers the unique example of a leading centrally planned economy swiftly transforming itself into a market-oriented economy. We offer a comprehensive study of inequality and mobility patterns for Russia, using multiple rounds of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Surveys over the past two decades spanning this transition. We find rising income levels and decreasing inequality, with the latter being mostly caused by pro-poor growth rather than redistribution. The poorest tercile experienced a growth rate that was more than 10 times that of the richest tercile, leading to less long-term inequality than short-term inequality. We also find that switching from a part-time job to a full-time job, from a lower-skill job to a higher-skill job, or staying in the formal sector is statistically significantly associated with reduced downward mobility and increased income growth. However, a similar transition from the private sector to the public sector is negatively associated with income growth. |
| Keywords: | welfare dynamics, poverty, inequality, pro-poor growth, panel data, household surveys, Russia. |
| JEL: | C15 D31 I31 O10 O57 |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inq:inqwps:ecineq2019-484&r=all |
| By: | Svanidze, Miranda; Götz, Linde Johanna |
| Abstract: | Using a threshold vector error correction model approach we find the wheat market of Russia segmented, with the primary grain export region poorly integrated into the domestic market. Results also indicate that trade costs are high, hindering spatial market efficiency of wheat markets in Russia. In addition, our study demonstrates that, by including the USA as benchmark country, a comparative approach enables a more comprehensive assessment of the spatial market efficiency of the wheat market in Russia. The study shows that the distinction between grain production and export potential, especially for markets located in peripheral regions of Russia, is essential to correctly identify Russia's future role for global food security. As a general conclusion, besides raising agricultural production potential it is also essential to strengthen spatial market efficiency in the agricultural sector to boost agricultural export potential and to increase global food security. |
| Keywords: | spatial market efficiency,grain production potential,Russia,TVECM,regularized Bayesian estimator |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iamodp:187&r=all |
| By: | Boudreaux, Christopher |
| Abstract: | Do private-owned enterprises (POEs) outperform state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in an emerging market? Due to political and social connections, SOEs have several advantages over POEs in emerging markets and transition economies, but we hypothesize that these advantages wane in pro-market institutional environments that prioritize market competition, rule of law, and the rewards to profitable enterprise. In this study, therefore, we explore how institutional quality moderates the relationship between privatization and entrepreneurs’ sales performance. To do this, we blend agency theory and entrepreneurial cognition theory with insights from institutional economics to develop a model of emerging market venture performance. Using data from the World Bank’s Enterprise Survey of entrepreneurs in China, our results suggest that POEs outperform SOEs but only in environments with high-quality market institutions. In environments with low-quality market institutions, SOEs outperform POEs. |
| Keywords: | privatization, institutional quality, entrepreneurship, China, agency theory, entrepreneurial cognition theory |
| JEL: | L2 L26 M2 M21 P12 P2 |
| Date: | 2019–03–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:93039&r=all |
| By: | Han, Y.; Li, V.; Lam, J., Pollitt, M.; Pollitt, M. |
| Abstract: | Over the last three decades, air pollution has become a major environmental challenge in many of the fast growing cities in China, including Beijing. Given that any long-term exposure to high-levels of air pollution has devastating health consequences, accurately monitoring and reporting air pollution information to the public is critical for ensuring public health and safety and facilitating rigorous air pollution and health-related scientific research. Recent statistical research examining China’s air quality data has posed questions regarding data accuracy, especially data reported during the Blue Sky Day (BSD) period (2000 – 2012), though the accuracy of publicly available air quality data in China has improved gradually over the recent years (2013 – 2017). To the best of our understanding, no attempt has been made to re-estimate the air quality data during the BSD period. In this paper, we put forward a machine-learning model to re-estimate the official air quality data during the BSD period of 2008 – 2012, based on the PM2.5 data of the Beijing US Embassy, and the proxy data covering Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and meteorology. Results have shown that the average re-estimated daily air quality values are respectively 64% and 61% higher than the official values, for air quality index (AQI) and AQI equivalent PM2.5, during the BSD period of 2008 to 2012. Moreover, the re-estimated BSD air quality data exhibit reduced statistical discontinuity and irregularity, based on our validation tests. The results suggest that the proposed data re-estimation methodology has the potential to provide more justifiable historical air quality data for evidence-based environmental decision-making in China. |
| Keywords: | Blue Sky Day (BSD), Air Quality, Beijing, Data Irregularity, Bayesian LSTM, Data Estimation |
| JEL: | C53 C63 Q53 |
| Date: | 2019–03–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:1929&r=all |
| By: | Julien Gourdon (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Laura Hering (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne); Stéphanie Monjon (CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique); Sandra Poncet (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | Our study shows that the relatively under-studied VAT export rebate system is a major industrial policy of the Chinese authorities to support exports. We use city-specific export-quantity data at the HS6-product level over the 2003-12 period to assess how changes in the VAT export tax have affected China's export performance. We are particularly interested in how the impact of this policy varies within products across cities depending on how well connected the targeted product is to the local productive structure. Our difference-indifference estimates exploit an eligibility rule disqualifying some export flows from the rebates. Our results suggest that a one percent rise in the VAT export tax leads to a 6.6% relative decrease in eligible export quantities. We then show that the effectiveness of this export tax policy is magnified when it applies to products with denser links with the local productive structure. Hence export benefits from VAT export rebates are greater for cities that have the necessary capabilities and resources to carry out the activities supported by this rebate policy. |
| Keywords: | VAT system,policy evaluation,export tax,export performance,trade elasticity,product relatedness,China |
| Date: | 2019–03–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-02065779&r=all |
| By: | Christophe Godlewski (University of Strasbourg, Faculty of Law & Business, EM Strasbourg Business School, PEGE-LaRGE); Dorota Skala (WNEiZ, University of Szczecin); Laurent Weill (EM Strasbourg Business School, University of Strasbourg, Institut d’Etudes Politiques, Université de Strasbourg) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the lending cyclicality of Polish cooperative banks. Cooperative banks have an important role in the financing of the local economy and as such can contribute to amplify or moderate business cycles through their lending behavior. We use a rich dataset of 367 Polish cooperative banks over the period 2007-2013. We find that cooperative banks have a countercyclical lending behavior on the country level, with loan growth negatively linked to national business cycles. We observe that greater bank size contributes to reduce the countercyclical lending behaviour. The lending behavior of cooperative banks is also sensitive to local economic conditions, with some evidence for procyclicality versus the regional economy. Finally, we point out differences in cyclicality of lending across types of borrowers. Loans to non-financial clients and to banks are countercyclical, while we find procyclicality for loans to local government and public entities. These findings support the view that the cooperative banking sector should be preserved to mitigate bank lending procyclicality, usually observed in commercial banks. |
| Keywords: | cooperative banks, loan growth, cyclicality, local economy, business cycles |
| JEL: | G21 R11 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:297&r=all |
| By: | Mariusz Kapuściński (SGH Warsaw School of Economics); Ilona Pietryka (Nicolaus Copernicus University in Torun) |
| Abstract: | In this study we aim to analyse the effects of leaving excess reserves in the banking sector by the central bank on the level and the variability of interest rates, as well as on money supply. To this end, we use mainly data for Poland, but in some cases, for robustness, also for a panel of Poland, the euro area, the Czech Republic and Hungary, as there had only been a limited variability in some policy variables in our sample for Poland. We estimate the parameters of GARCH, (P)VAR and (panel) linear regression models. We find that excess reserves affect the level and the variability of an overnight money market interest rate. However, the variability of the overnight money market interest rate, shaped to a large extent by excess reserves, does not affect the level of longer-term interest rates, and we find little evidence of its impact on their variability. Neither do excess reserves translate into higher money supply. Our results imply that the current monetary policy operational framework in Poland is adequate to ensure the transmission of the central bank policy rate to money market interest rates. Furthermore, it appears unlikely that raising the amount of excess reserves left, as proposed by some policymakers, would affect money supply. Instead, it would lower the money multiplier and the overnight money market interest rate, as well as increase its volatility. |
| Keywords: | excess reserves; interest rate pass through; money multiplier; GARCH; VAR; panel data models |
| JEL: | E52 E43 E51 C32 C33 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:300&r=all |
| By: | Barnabás Székely (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary)) |
| Abstract: | The study evaluates bank efficiency in the EU member states of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) using stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). Relying on a comprehensive dataset covering the post-crisis period from 2010 to 2016, country-specific average profit and cost efficiencies are calculated. Compared with similar pre-crisis studies, the results highlight the reshuffling effects of the financial crisis. Hungary, for instance, that was consistently found to have a comparatively efficient banking system, now performs well below average. Contrasting the results of traditional performance indicators with SFA supports the mechanism put forward by the Quiet Life Hypothesis. The positive relationship of market share and return on assets (or equity) indicates that higher market power enables banks to realize higher profits. SFA, on the other hand, suggests a negative association implying that banks do not tend to fully exploit this potential. |
| Keywords: | Bank Efficiency; Stochastic Frontier Analysis; Central and Eastern Europe |
| JEL: | G21 P52 C12 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2018/3&r=all |
| By: | Radchenko, Daria (Радченко, Дарья) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Ponomarev, Yuriy (Пономарев, Юрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | In accordance with the instructions of the President of the Russian Federation, the Russian economy is faced with the task of getting into the top five largest economies in the world. One of the main ways to solve this problem can be to increase the aggregate factor productivity, including through the development of transport infrastructure as a supporting framework for the Russian economy. This leads to the need to update the existing strategic and program documents that determine the development of the Russian transport system in the direction of increasing the contribution to the TFP through the connectivity of the territories, increasing the mobility of labor resources and safe acceleration of the transportation of goods. Therefore, a correct assessment of the degree of formation of the transport infrastructure at the regional level, the positive effects that arise in the area of its development, and the impact of its development on the aggregate factor productivity, which the research conducted by the RANEPA is dedicated to, is an important task. |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031945&r=all |
| By: | Pokida, Andrey (Покида, Андрей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Zybunovskaya, Natalia (Зыбуновская, Наталья) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | In a scientific report presents results of a study carried out by the Center of social and political monitoring of the School of Public Policy of RANEPA in 2018. The research is devoted to the study of the state of legal culture of citizens representing various socio-demographic and professional groups. The results of the study are presented in comparison with the results of sociological surveys conducted by the Center in previous years by a comparable method. The main conclusions of the sociological study formed the basis of recommendations for the authorities on the formation of active citizenship, the development of legal culture of Russian citizens in the field of labor relations, including legal knowledge and skills that contribute to the establishment of productive dialogue between the subjects of social and labor relations. |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031962&r=all |
| By: | Liu, HuiHui; Zhang, ZhongXiang; Chen, ZhanMing; Dou, DeSheng |
| Abstract: | The regulated price mechanism in China’s power industry has attracted much criticism because of its incapability to optimize the allocation of resources. To build an “open, orderly, competitive and complete” power market system, the Chinese government launched an unprecedented marketization reform in 2015 to deregulate the electricity price. This paper examines the impact of the electricity price deregulation in the industry level. We first construct two-stage dynamic game models by taking the coal and coal-fired power industries as the players. Using the models, we compare analytically the equilibriums with and without electricity regulation, and examine the changes in electricity price, electricity generation, coal price and coal traded quantity. The theoretical analyses show that there are three intervals of the regulated electricity sales prices which influence the impact of electricity price deregulation. Next, we collect empirical data to estimate the parameters in the game models, and simulate the influence of electricity deregulation on the two industries in terms of market outcome and industrial profitability. Our results suggest that the actual regulated electricity price falls within the medium interval of the theoretical results, which means the price deregulation will result in higher electricity sales price but lower coal price, less coal traded amount and less electricity generation amount. The robustness analysis shows that our results hold with respect to the electricity generation efficiency and price elasticity of electricity demand. |
| Keywords: | Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2018–06–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:feemth:273367&r=all |
| By: | Aganbegyan, Abel (Аганбегян, Абел) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kleeva, Lyudmila (Клеева, Людмила) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Krotova, Nadezhda (Кротова, Надежда) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The paper examines the possibilities of accelerated socio-economic development of Russia on the basis of the preferential development of industries with the multiplicative effect of economic growth locomotives. These industries include: the automotive industry, housing, mass construction of highways and high-speed railways, as well as the branches of the knowledge economy: research and development, education, information and communication technologies, health care and related biotechnology. The paper discusses the possibilities of enhancing economic growth in the country due to the accelerated development of these industries, with particular importance given to their ability to cause a multiplicative effect, significantly increasing their real contribution to the economy compared to the cost of their development. |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031953&r=all |
| By: | Le, Nga (UNU-MERIT); Groot, Wim (UNU-MERIT, TIER and CAPHRI School for Public Health and Primary Care, Maastricht University); Tomini, Sonila M. (UNU-MERIT); Tomini, Florian (Centre for Primary Care and Public Health Queen Mary University, London,) |
| Abstract: | Health insurance can have important effects on self-employment and self- employment transitions. However, there is a literature gap on the relationship between health insurance and self-employment in low and middle income countries, especially in the context of rapid expansion of health insurance in these countries. This paper examines this relationship in Vietnam with a focus on the comparison between the voluntary scheme for the informal sector (mostly self-employed workers) and the compulsory insurance for the formal sector (mostly wage workers). We employ a Probit model with selection on a panel from the Vietnamese Household Living Standards Surveys 2010-2014 to investigate the association between health insurance and self-employment entry and exit. We show that those with compulsory health insurance in Vietnam, the formal workers, are 10 percentage points less likely to enter self-employment compared to those having voluntary insurance. Regarding self-employment exit, people with compulsory insurance are more likely to exit self-employment compared to those covered by voluntary insurance. However, the effect size is relatively small. |
| Keywords: | health insurance, self-employment, Vietnam, self-employment entry, self-employment exit |
| JEL: | I13 J22 |
| Date: | 2019–03–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2019008&r=all |
| By: | Kazenin, Konstantin (Казенин, Константин) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The paper describes the available sources of data on fertility among labor migrants from the countries of Central Asia in the Russian Federation. The current birth rate in the countries from which they migrate is also considered as a basis for comparison, which is necessary in the study of the birth rate among labor migrants. |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031944&r=all |
| By: | Khuzina, Alfiya (Хузина, Альфия) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Tischenko, Tatiana (Тищенко, Татьяна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Moguchev, Nikita (Могучев, Никита) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Suchkova, Olga (Сучкова, Ольга) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Sokolov, Ilya (Соколов, Илья) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Hudko, Elizaveta (Худько, Елизавета) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | Infrastructure bonds, as one of the most important instruments for financing long-term large-scale infrastructure projects in different countries of the world, have become widespread in both the government and corporate segments. The study attempted to develop proposals for the expansion of the Russian market of infrastructure bonds, taking into account the best international practices and investment needs of the Russian economy. Particular attention is paid to the features of the use of infrastructure bonds and trends in the development and regulation of this instrument in Russia. |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031943&r=all |
| By: | Riska Dwi, Astuti; Nadia, Fazira |
| Abstract: | In recent years, there have been many significant changes in commercial transactions. Not only e-commerce continues to grow, but also the form of payment services and service providers are consistently growing, such as virtual currency. One of virtual currency that quite popular is cryptocurrency especially Bitcoin. China became the country with the largest Bitcoin market in the world in the past few years. However, due to the concerns about money laundering and threats to China's financial stability and affecting the domestic currency, the Chinese government has formed a strict policy on Bitcoin. Therefore, nowadays, China is no longer the largest Bitcoin market in the world. Regarding the recently implemented policy, this study aims to analyze whether Bitcoin does affect China's exchange rate. The main independent variables in this research are specified to Bitcoin price volatility from BTCE, and controlled with the variable of the current account, inflation, and money supply. Monthly time series data from November 2012 until July 2017 is analyzed using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL). The estimation results show that Bitcoin price volatility significantly affects the exchange rate in the long run. The higher of Bitcoin price volatility implies higher risk. The negative sign in the coefficient suggests that when Bitcoin's price volatility increases, investors tend to switch their investments on real currency will be preferable so that the exchange rate will be appreciated. |
| Keywords: | Cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, Exchange Rate, ARDL, China |
| JEL: | E52 G15 G18 |
| Date: | 2018–09–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:93052&r=all |
| By: | Trunin, Pavel (Трунин, Павел) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kiyutsevskaya, Anna (Киюцевская, Анна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Narkevich, Sergey (Наркевич, Сергей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Inozemtsev, Eduard (Иноземцев, Эдуард) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Hudko, Elizaveta (Худько, Елизавета) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | One of the most important issues of financial intermediaries` evolution as well as of the financial system as a whole is associated with the intensive introduction of fintech innovations. The study attempted to fill the existing gap related to a lack of understanding of the scope of fintech innovations and their classification, and to provide a comprehensive review of international experience, application practices and channels of influence of advanced technologies on traditional financial intermediaries, including central banks. Particular attention is paid to the features and trends in the development and regulation of fintech in Russia. |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031941&r=all |
| By: | Klyachko, Tatiana (Клячко, Татьяна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Avraamova, Elena (Авраамова, Елена) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Semionova, Elena (Семионова, Елена) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Loginov, Dmitriy (Логинов, Дмитрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The work assesses the employment of young people with different levels of general and vocational education based on sociological data. The information base of the study was the results of monitoring the employment mechanisms of graduates of educational organizations of different levels, conducted by experts of the Center for the Economics of Continuing Education of the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation in 2016-2017. A youth employment analysis was conducted for formally and informally employed youth. In assessing the employment of young people, not only the different levels of general and vocational education of young specialists were taken into account, but also the gender, regional and age characteristics of young people were taken into account. |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031960&r=all |
| By: | Gábor Fukker (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary)); Lóránt Kaszab (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary)) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we develop the Hungarian version of the EAGLE FLI (Euro Area GLobal Economy model with Financial LInkages) model which is the EAGLE model enriched with financial frictions and country-specific banking sector. The EAGLE FLI features the intermediation of loanable funds (ILF) view in banking whereby the creation of new loans requires banks to collect additional deposits. Households and firms borrow in the model using housing as collateral. We find that macroprudential policies such as an increase in capital requirements, decreases in the loan-to-value ratio or loan-to-income ratio of borrower households (and firms) limits banks’ credit creation with negative spillover effects to the real economy due to the financial accelerator mechanism in the model. On the other hand, these policies strengthen banks’ capital and limit the vulnerability of households and firms to negative financial shocks. |
| Keywords: | macroprudential policy, multi-country DSGE, capital requirements, loan-to-value ratio, loan-to-income ratio |
| JEL: | E12 E13 E52 E58 F11 F41 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2019/1&r=all |
| By: | Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Mahdi Ghodsi (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Julia Grübler (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Doris Hanzl-Weiss (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Armon Rezai; Roman Römisch (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Graph of the month Average gross monthly wages in Central and East European countries, at purchasing power parity, Austria = 100 Opinion corner How can wages in Central and Eastern Europe be sustainably increased and the pressure to emigrate dampened? by Vasily Astrov and Armon Rezai Estimating the effects of commuting on regional GDP in Austria by Roman Römisch The article asks whether regional GDP is a good measure of the level of economic and social development of a region. It adjusts traditional GDP by commuting, estimating the in- and outflow of wages in the Austrian regions. It finds that commuting-adjusted GDP in Vienna is lower, while in Lower Austria and especially Burgenland it is much higher than official GDP. This should lead to a rethinking of the regions’ social position, potentially including a redistribution of EU Structural Funds. Austria’s investment in its Eastern neighbourhood by Julia Grübler Being a small economy in the heart of Europe, Austria’s significance as a foreign investor in Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE) is often overlooked. For all fifteen countries under consideration, Austria ranks among the top 10 investors, dwarfing global players such as the United States or China. Likewise, investments in immediate neighbouring countries feature prominently in Austria’s outward FDI stocks and appear overproportionately profitable. Main Austrian export destinations the role of CESEE re-examined by Mahdi Ghodsi and Doris Hanzl-Weiss For Austria, the CESEE region is an important export destination, expanding over time and accounting for 21% of Austria’s exports in 2015. Nevertheless, while losing market shares, Germany remains the largest Austrian partner, with 30% of Austrian exports heading there. Statistical Annex Monthly and quarterly statistics for Central, East and Southeast Europe |
| Keywords: | wages, purchasing power, CEE, Austria, wage growth, emigration, labour market liberalization, regional GDP, commuting, regions in Austria, FDI, CEE, SEE, CESEE, foreign trade, export destination, markets share |
| Date: | 2018–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:mpaper:mr:2018-09&r=all |
| By: | Gabriel Di Bella; Oksana Dynnikova; Slavi T Slavov |
| Abstract: | The short answer: The size of the Russian State has not increased much in the last few years, but its economic footprint remains significant. Concretely, the state's size increased from about 32 percent of GDP in 2012 to 33 percent in 2016, not far from the EBRD's estimate of 35 percent for 2005-10. This is different from the mainstream narrative, which contends that the state's size doubled in the last decade. However, a deep state footprint is reflected in a relatively high state share in formal sector activity (close to 40 percent) and formal sector employment (about 50 percent). The deep footprint is also reflected in market competition and efficiency. Although sectors in which the state is present are more concentrated, concentration is large even in sectors where the state's share is low. This suggests the need to protect and promote competition, in particular in state procurement. Finally, state-owned enterprises' performance appears weaker than that of privately-owned firms, which may be subtracting from growth. |
| Date: | 2019–03–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:19/53&r=all |
| By: | Nijat Guliyev (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effects of external shocks on the economy of oil rich Azerbaijan. Using oil price and macroeconomic indicators of three major trade partners of Azerbaijan – EU, Russia, and Turkey - as the external shock variables, we analyze the effects of those shocks on the domestic macroeconomic variables of Azerbaijan during the period from 2000Q1 to 2017Q4, in the SVAR framework with block exogeneity restriction. The results show that the overall importance of the four groups of shocks, in descending terms, is in the following order: oil shock, EU origin shocks, Russia origin shocks, and Turkey origin shocks. The major findings of the paper are: a) among considered foreign shocks oil price shock is the most important foreign shock for the economy of Azerbaijan; b) in general EU origin shocks has larger impact on considered domestic variables compared to other trade partners origin shocks; c) Turkey origin shocks have almost no impact in any of the considered domestic variables of Azerbaijan, d) among considered external shocks oil price is the main determinant of the non-oil sector of economy, and e) among considered external shocks GDP growth of the trade partners is the main determinant of the inflation in Azerbaijan. |
| Keywords: | VAR, non-oil GDP, CPI inflation, oil price, external shock |
| JEL: | E10 E30 C30 |
| Date: | 2018–09–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aze:wpaper:1802&r=all |
| By: | Sonali Das |
| Abstract: | China’s exchange rate regime has undergone gradual reform since the move away from a fixed exchange rate in 2005. The renminbi has become more flexible over time but is still carefully managed, and depth and liquidity in the onshore FX market is relatively low compared to other countries with de jure floating currencies. Allowing a greater role for market forces within the existing regime, and greater two-way flexibility of the exchange rate, are important steps to build on the progress already made. This should be complemented by further steps to develop the FX market, improve FX risk management, and modernize the monetary policy framework. |
| Date: | 2019–03–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:19/50&r=all |
| By: | Isabella M. Weber (Goldsmiths, University of London) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a comparative and connected history of the debates over transition to a market economy in West-Germany after World War II and in China during the first decade of reform and opening up under Deng Xiaoping (1978-1988). At both historical moments the political aim was to reintroduce market mechanisms into a dysfunctional command economy. The question what kind of price reform this required was subject to heated debates among economists. This paper shows how the West-German 1948 currency and price reform was introduced into the Chinese reform debate by German ordoliberals and neoliberals like Friedman. It traces how the West-German case study was mystified as “Erhard Miracle” and became a metaphor for the shock therapy of universal overnight price liberalisation in China. |
| Keywords: | Ordoliberalism, price reform, socialism, China, market transition, Ludwig Erhard |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:new:wpaper:1903&r=all |
| By: | Taguchi, Hiroyuki |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to provide empirical evidence on the relationship between inflation targeting and the pass-through effect from exchange rate to consumer prices, focusing on the case of Mongolia. The study estimates a vector-autoregressive model, and examines the impulse responses of consumer prices to the shock of exchange rate for the pre-inflation targeting period and the post-inflation targeting period. The empirical analysis identified the existence of the pass-through effect during the pre-inflation targeting period and the loss of the pass-through during the post-inflation targeting period. It was speculated that the loss of the pass-through comes from the “forward-looking” monetary policy rule in Mongolian inflation targeting, so that it can work on the expectations of domestic agents such that they are less inclined to change prices in response to a given exchange rate shock. |
| Keywords: | Inflation Targeting; Pass-through Effect; Mongolia; Vector Autoregressive Model; Forward-looking Rule |
| JEL: | E52 F31 O53 |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:92988&r=all |
| By: | Avraamova, Elena (Авраамова, Елена) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Klyachko, Tatiana (Клячко, Татьяна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Loginov, Dmitriy (Логинов, Дмитрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Polushkina, Elena (Полушкина, Елена) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Semionova, Elena (Семенова, Елена) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | Every year the Center of the Economics for Continuing Education of the Institute of Applied Economic Research of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public administration monitors the youth labor market problems. This article uses fieldwork collected in the three regions of the Russian Federation. The results of the monitoring made it possible to identify the main problems that youth face in finding employment. This article presents main results about relationship between the quality of education received by the youth, work experience and professional perspectives on the labor market. |
| Keywords: | monitoring, youth employment, education, work experience |
| JEL: | J62 |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:031963&r=all |
| By: | Zubarev, Andrey (Зубарев, Андрей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Nesterova, Kristina (Нестерова, Кристина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | This paper is aimed at modeling of the proposed rise in retirement age for Russian economy (from 60 to 65 for men and from 55 to 60 for women) in the setting of a global CGE-OLGE model that includes over 100 countries grouped into 17 regions. The model takes into account the relevant long run demographic forecasts made by the UN and the current budget structure for all the 17 regions/ the results suggest a weak effect of the rise in retirement age on the economic activity and a substantial positive effect on a long-term balance of the state budget. |
| Keywords: | general equilibrium model, pension reform, retirement age |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031952&r=all |