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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Bruszt, László (Central European University); Campos, Nauro (Brunel University London) |
| Abstract: | Exiting the middle-income trap entails costly improvements in state capacity. That deep economic integration induces powerful actors to support increasing state capacities remain underresearched. Here we ask: Under what conditions can deep economic integration yield increases in state capacity? We measure institutional change in 17 European former communist countries exposed to similar challenges of deep integration (European Union membership candidates), and find large variation in the evolution of their state capacities. To understand this variation, we put forward a conceptual framework and supporting hypotheses. From testing these, we empirically identify key relationships and specific reform implementation sequences. Our main result is the centrality of an intricate relationship between bureaucratic independence and judiciary capacity as a main driver of institutional change. Change in these two institutional fields, we find, is a precondition for increasing internal and external competition, which are key factors for successfully escaping the middle-income trap. |
| Keywords: | institutions; middle-income trap; state capacity |
| JEL: | D85 H41 O17 O18 |
| Date: | 2018–06–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0547&r=all |
| By: | Alexeev, Michael (Алексеев, Майкл) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Indiana University); Belev, Sergey (Белев, Сергей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Gromov, Valdimir (Громов, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Deryugin, Alexander (Дерюгин, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Drobyshevsky, Sergey (Дробышевский, Сергей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Kaukin, Andrey (Каукин, Андрей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Knobel, Alexander (Кнобель, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Russian Foreign Trade Academy, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Korytin, Andrey (Корытин, Андрей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Leonov, Elisey (Леонов, Елисей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Malinina, Tatiana (Малинина, Татьяна) (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Milogolov, Nikolai (Милоголов, Николай) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Sinelnikov-Murylev, Sergey (Синельников-Мурылев, Сергей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Russian Foreign Trade Academy, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | Tax policy directly affects the state of the business climate in the country and the competitiveness of national business. Over the past six years, the main principle of tax policy in the Russian Federation has been to preserve unchanged tax conditions (basic tax rates), improve the structure and administration of individual taxes, and automate tax administration as a whole. In the Doing Business World Bank ranking, for 10 years from 2009 to 2018, according to the “Taxes” component, Russia has risen from 134 to 53rd place. The Russian tax system largely meets the criteria of an “optimal tax system”, but there is a stable set of myths about it that provoke heated discussions both in the business community and in the development and discussion of budget laws. |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:021907&r=all |
| By: | Alexei Karas; William Pyle; Koen Schoors (-) |
| Abstract: | Using evidence from Russia, we explore the e ect of the introduction of deposit insurance on bank risk. Drawing on within-bank variation in the ratio of firm deposits to total household and firm deposits, so as to capture the magnitude of the decrease in market discipline after the introduction of deposit insurance, we demonstrate for private, domestic banks that larger declines in market discipline generate larger increases in traditional measures of risk. These results hold in a di erence-in-di erence setting in which state and foreign-owned banks, whose deposit insurance regime does not change, serve as a control.. |
| Keywords: | deposit insurance, market discipline, moral hazard, risk taking, banks, Russia |
| JEL: | E65 G21 G28 P34 |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:19/953&r=all |
| By: | Koen Schoors; Laurent Weill (-) |
| Abstract: | We investigate whether lending by the dominant Russian state bank, Sberbank, contributed to Vladimir Putin’s ascent to power during the presidential elections of March 2000. Our hypothesis is that Sberbank corporate loans were used as incentives for managers at private firms to mobilize employees to vote for Putin. In line with our proposed voter mobilization mechanism, we find that the growth of regional corporate Sberbank loans in the months before the presidential election is related to the regional increase in votes for Putin and to the regional increase in voter turnout between the Duma election of December 1999 and the presidential election of March 2000. The effect of Sberbank firm lending on Putin votes is most pronounced in regions where the governor is affiliated with the regime and in regions with extensive private employment. The effect is less apparent in regions with a large part of their population living in single-company towns, where voter intimidation is sufficient to get the required result. Additional robustness checks and placebo regressions confirm the main findings. Our results support the view that additional Sberbank corporate loans granted prior to the March 2000 presidential election facilitated Putin’s early electoral success. |
| Keywords: | bank, credit policy, politics, Russia. |
| JEL: | G21 P34 |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:19/951&r=all |
| By: | D'Erasmo, Pablo (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia); Livshits, Igor (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia); Schoors, Koen (Ghent, HSE) |
| Abstract: | Banking regulation routinely designates some assets as safe and thus does not require banks to hold any additional capital to protect against losses from these assets. A typical such safe asset is domestic government debt. There are numerous examples of banking regulation treating domestic government bonds as “safe,” even when there is clear risk of default on these bonds. We show, in a parsimonious model, that this failure to recognize the riskiness of government debt allows (and induces) domestic banks to “gamble” with depositors’ funds by purchasing risky government bonds (and assets closely correlated with them). A sovereign default in this environment then results in a banking crisis. Critically, we show that permitting banks to gamble this way lowers the cost of borrowing for the government. Thus, if the borrower and the regulator are the same entity (the government), that entity has an incentive to ignore the riskiness of the sovereign bonds. We present empirical evidence in support of the key mechanism we are highlighting, drawing on the experience of Russia in the run-up to its 1998 default and on the recent Eurozone debt crisis. |
| Keywords: | Banking; Sovereign default; Prudential regulation; Financial crisis |
| JEL: | F34 G01 G28 |
| Date: | 2019–02–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:19-15&r=all |
| By: | Marnix Van Soom; Milan Van Den Heuvel; Jan Ryckebusch; Koen Schoors (-) |
| Abstract: | Since the 2007-2009 financial crisis, substantial academic effort was dedicated to improving our understanding of interbank lending networks (ILNs). Because of data limitations, the literature largely lacks loan maturity information. We employ a complete interbank loan contract dataset to investigate whether maturity details are informative of the network structure. Applying the layered stochastic block model of Peixoto (2015)1 and other tools from network science on a time series of bilateral loans with multiple maturity layers in the Russian ILN, we find that collapsing all such layers consistently obscures mesoscale structure. The optimal maturity granularity lies between completely collapsing and completely separating the maturity layers and depends on the development phase of the interbank market, with a more developed market requiring more layers for optimal description. Closer inspection of the inferred maturity bins associated with the optimal maturity granularity reveals specific economic functions, from liquidity intermediation to financing. Collapsing a network with multiple underlying maturity layers, common in interbank research, is therefore not only an incomplete representation of the ILN’s mesoscale structure, but also conceals existing economic functions. This holds important insights and opportunities for theoretical and empirical studies on interbank market contagion, stability, and on the desirable level of regulatory data disclosure. |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:19/952&r=all |
| By: | Radygin, Alexander (Радыгин, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Entov, Revold (Энтов, Револьд) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Chernova, Maria (Чернова, Мария) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Abramov, Alexander (Абрамов, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Malginov, Georgiy (Мальгинов, Георгий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The authors, on the basis of a brief historical excursion, analyze the current priorities of Russian privatization. The report assesses the size of the public sector and the feasibility of privatizing certain large Russian companies with state participation in the context of sanctions. It is shown that the consolidated financial characteristics of companies with state participation, as a rule, are worse than those of private companies and foreign competitors, and the total return on the shares of the former is less than the minimum market return on shares. The empirical part of the report is based on a sample of 265 largest private and state-owned Russian companies for which public financial reporting is available. |
| Keywords: | privatization, state property, companies with state participation, privatization program, sanctions |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:021904&r=all |
| By: | Klimanov, Vladimir (Климанов, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Deryugin, Alexander (Дерюгин, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Mikhailova, Anna (Михайлова, Анна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Yagovkina, Vita (Яговкина, Вита) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The main objective of the study is to develop recommendations for improving intergovernmental relations in order to ensure a balance between regional and local budgets, reduce regional differentiation in terms of budgetary support and improve the quality of public finance management in regions and municipalities. To achieve this goal, the following tasks were solved: analysis of the main trends in the development of intergovernmental relations in the Russian Federation; identification of key challenges that hinder the improvement of the efficiency of the system of interbudget relations; making recommendations to federal authorities to improve the efficiency of the system of intergovernmental transfers, increase the revenue base and increase the tax autonomy of the regions, improve the separation of spending powers, and a differentiated approach to granting budgetary rights to regions. The results of this research work can be used by federal executive authorities for the scientific and methodological support of their activities, as well as in the interests of the subjects of the Russian Federation. |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:021918&r=all |
| By: | Shuaizhang Feng (Jinan University); Naijia Guo (The Chinese University of Hong Kong) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effect of state-owned enterprises on the dynamics of the Chinese urban labor market. Using longitudinal monthly panel data, we document very low dynamics in the labor market, especially in the state sector. We develop and calibrate an equilibrium search and matching model with three differences between the state and the non-state sector: labor productivity, labor adjustment cost, and workers’ bargaining power. Counterfactual analysis shows that the lack of dynamics is mainly driven by the strong bargaining power of state-sector workers. Eliminating the differences between the two sectors substantially reduces the unemployment rate and long-term unemployment rate. |
| Keywords: | state sector, labor market dynamics, search and matching, China, long-term unemployment |
| JEL: | J64 J45 P23 |
| Date: | 2019–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2019-008&r=all |
| By: | Thanh Mai Ha (School of Economics and Finance, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand and Faculty of Economics and Rural Development, Vietnam National University of Agriculture, Vietnam); Shamim Shakur (School of Economics and Finance, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand); Kim Hang Pham Do (School of Economics and Finance, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand) |
| Abstract: | The concern about vegetable safety, together with a booming population and the rise of the middle class has made Vietnam become a potential market for organic vegetables. This paper investigates the determinants of willingness to pay (WTP) for organic vegetables in Hanoi, Vietnam with a particular attention to regional differences and the effect of risk perception. Using Contingent Valuation Method to analyze the data from a sample of 498 consumers in Hanoi, the paper shows that the perceived use values of organic vegetables, trust in organic labels, and disposable family income increased WTP for organic vegetables in both urban and rural regions. Though risk perception of conventional vegetables was high in both regions, such heightened risk perception just translated into the WTP in the rural region. In addition, the percentage of home-grown vegetables in the total vegetable consumption of the family influenced the WTP in the rural region only. Moreover, being an organic purchaser was positively related to the WTP in the urban region but not in the rural region. The paper also discusses three policy implications for Vietnam to boost the demand for organic food. |
| Keywords: | Willingness to pay, organic vegetables, food safety, rural-urban difference, Hanoi |
| JEL: | Q18 D12 I12 Q13 R22 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mas:dpaper:1808&r=all |
| By: | Kazakova, Maria (Казакова, Мария) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Pospelova, Ekaterina (Поспелова, Екатерина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The diversity of Russia's geography and its complex economic history are important factors explaining the differences in regional economic development. In recent decades, many studies have emerged devoted to the study of spatial inequality of economic development. Now there is a large amount of evidence to identify common characteristics in achieving a high level of economic efficiency. These characteristics include a high level of urbanization and economic density, proximity and connectivity with large markets and highly skilled people. However, to understand the factors shaping the economic potential of the regions, it is necessary to take into account the specific aspects of the country's context. This paper reviews the factors causing inequality in the Russian regions, taking into account the specificity of the country. |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:021927&r=all |
| By: | Petrović, Dragan; Bukvić, Rajko |
| Abstract: | The paper analyses status of metal and machine industry in Serbia, with short retrospect to previous period. Also, it presents the short review of the EU policies incentives and subsidies for industry development, especially through European Commission and their concept Horizont-2020. Bad conditions for industry of Serbia in last century quarter are not exceeded, arising trends are questionable. The development conception is not defined and established. Special interest of the paper is the status of the metal and machine industry, as very important branches for the economy of each country. |
| Keywords: | industry of Serbia, metal and machine industry, EU concept for industry development |
| JEL: | L60 N14 N64 O14 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:92438&r=all |
| By: | Nazarov, Vladimir (Назаров, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Avksentiev, Nikolay (Авксентьев, Николай) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Sisigina, Natalia (Сисигина, Наталья) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The report examines the most acute and actual problems of the Russian health care system, among which are the challenges characteristic of most developed countries in the period of the emergence of public health, structural problems inherent in national health care for many years, as well as new challenges related to the need to introduce innovative medical technologies. On the basis of international experience in solving comparable problems, an analysis of the goals and objectives of the state policy in the field of health care, set by Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of May 7, 2018 No. 204, is carried out. |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:021916&r=all |
| By: | Shagaida, Natalia (Шагайда, Наталья) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Uzun, Vasiliy (Узун, Василий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The report examines structural changes in agriculture in the post-reform period, assesses these changes; It is shown that privatization, de-collectivization, holding, agro-industrial integration, concentration of land and capital had a positive impact on industry growth rates and labor productivity. However, there are negative phenomena. The increase in the share of agricultural holdings leads to a decrease in the rural population and agricultural employment in the region, and the share of people employed in low-productivity farms is growing in the structure of agricultural holdings. Unequal access to state subsidies creates advantages for a separate circle of companies, and the growth of profitability in them does not correlate with the growth of employees' income: their share decreases with an increase in the share of owners and the state. The paper formulates proposals for improving the structural policy in the agricultural sector of Russia and the subjects of the Russian Federation. |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:021905&r=all |
| By: | Krivonos, Ekaterina; Kuhn, Lena |
| Abstract: | In public and academic debates, the linkages between agricultural markets and nutrition across the world are vividly discussed. This paper contributes to the ongoing debate by analyzing the relationship between greater openness to trade and dietary diversity. It focuses on the post-communist countries of Eastern Europe and Central Asia where trade reforms as part of the economic and political transition provide a natural experiment for studying the effects of trade openness on agricultural markets and consumer behaviour. Reduction in trade barriers, for instance in the context of the accession to the WTO and the EU, and the gradual integration with world markets after 1991 had implications for diets through changes in production, prices and incomes. We utilize country-level panel data for 26 post-communist countries in the period 1996-2013 to assess the effects of trade costs, openness to trade and incomes on dietary diversity measured by the Shannon entropy index. The results arising from fixed effects and instrumental variables estimation are consistent with previous findings that income growth affects dietary diversity positively and provide novel evidence that trade barriers reduce variety of products available in domestic markets, in particular fruits and vegetables. |
| Keywords: | trade,nutrition transition,dietary diversity,post-communist countries,Eastern Europe |
| JEL: | D12 F13 Q11 Q18 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iamodp:182&r=all |
| By: | Koen Schoors; Maria Semenova; Andrey Zubanov (-) |
| Abstract: | We analyze whether bank familiarity affects depositor behavior during financial crisis. Familiarity is measured by regional or local cues in the bank’s name. Depositor behavior is measured by the depositor’s sensitivity to observable bank risk (market discipline). Using 2001-2010 bank-level and region-level data for Russia, we find that depositors of familiar banks become less sensitive to bank risk after a financial crisis relative to depositors of unfamiliar banks. To validate that our results stem from a flight to familiarity during crisis and not from implicit guarantees from regional governments, we interact the variables of interest with measures of regional affinity and trust in local governments. The flight to familiarity effect is strongly confirmed in regions with strong regional affinity, while the effect is absent in regions with more trust in regional and local governments, lending support to the thesis that our results are driven a flight to familiarity rather than implicit guarantees. |
| Keywords: | Market discipline, Bank, Personal deposit, Region, Russia, Flight to familiarity, Trust, Implicit guaranty, Regional authorities. |
| JEL: | G21 G01 P2 |
| Date: | 2019–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:19/959&r=all |
| By: | Khasanova, Ramiliya (Хасанова, Рамиля) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Seredkina, Ekaterina (Середкина, Екатерина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | Currently, Russia is on its way to a difficult stage, which is characterized by a natural decline in the country's population. Against the background of declining fertility potential due to the small generation of women, reducing mortality is an important way to reduce the natural population decline. Analysis of statistical data for 2007-2017 showed that against the background of the increase in life expectancy of the population of Russia, and the successful reduction of mortality from circulatory system diseases and external causes of death, there is an increase in mortality from certain socially significant diseases. The paper analyzes the mortality rate of the Russian population from socially significant diseases. |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:021925&r=all |
| By: | Belev, Sergey (Белев, Сергей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Vekerle, Konstantin (Векерле, Константин) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Gurvich, Evsey (Гурвич, Евсей) (Economic Expert Group); Zolotareva, Anna (Золотарева, Анна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Moguchev, Nikita (Могучев, Никита) (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Sokolov, Ilya (Соколов, Илья) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Russian Foreign Trade Academy); Tischenko, Tatiana (Тищенко, Татьяна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Filippova, Irina (Филиппова, Ирина) (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | In the last decade, Russia has seen a reduction in total budget expenditures - from 41% of GDP in 2009 to 34.5% in 2018. However, this decrease in expenses may be masked in the expanding system of quasi-public finances that are in the control of the growing public sector. Along with the total budget expenditures, their structure is also important for economic growth. The planned change in the structure of public expenditures within the framework of implementation of the May Presidential Decree is estimated to have a slight positive effect on economic growth in the short term, while in the long run, GDP growth may add up to 0.4 pp on average annually. The rule that has been in effect since 2017 imposes excessively rigid restrictions on the amount of federal budget expenditures, and also still differs in the lack of flexibility of its design and the lack of a countercyclical nature of the action. Therefore, the search for alternative versions of the rule is not completed. Also for the success of the implementation of the priority of the socio-economic development of the country should be continued to increase the efficiency of management of available budgetary resources on the program and project principles. |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:021919&r=all |
| By: | Khasanova, Ramilya (Хасанова Рамиля) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Maleva, Tatiana (Малева Татьяна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Mkrtchyan, Nikita (Мкртчян Никита) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Florinskaya, Yulia (Флоринская Юлия) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | Ten years after the beginning of an active demographic policy, Russia is again on the threshold of complex demographic challenges. Currently, the country is on its way to a difficult stage, which is characterized by a natural decline in the country's population. What is the difference between the current stage of Russia's demographic development and the previous one? Will the mechanisms and tools of the demographic policy of 2007-2017 work today? The paper analyzes the past ten-year stage of demographic policy in Russia and discusses possible responses to new demographic challenges. |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:021902&r=all |
| By: | Ferrarini, Benno (Asian Development Bank); Hinojales, Marthe (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | We reflect state-owned enterprises’ (SOE) leverage within the standard debt sustainability assessment framework. Based on company data and the interest coverage ratio as a measure of debt at risk, aggregate baseline projections and fan charts gauge SOE debt as a contingent liability to the public sector. We find that SOE leverage in the People’s Republic of China has grown to a large liability that deserves the urgent attention it has been receiving from the authorities. While there is no room for complacency, there is no need for panic either; even if authorities had to step into mop up as much as 20% of SOE debt at risk gone bad, this would appear to be manageable at roughly 2.7% of the gross domestic product in 2016 or 5.5% by 2021. These findings are reflective of discretionary assumptions about future developments in the SOE sector and the broader economy—including baseline conditions premised on preventive government action to slow borrowing—that are adjustable to reflect analysts’ prerogatives and expectations. |
| Keywords: | contingent liabilities; corporate leverage; People’s Republic of China; public debt sustainability; state-owned enterprises |
| JEL: | G01 G21 H30 H60 |
| Date: | 2018–01–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0534&r=all |
| By: | Idrisov, Georgiy (Идрисов, Георгий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Mikhailov, Tatiana (Михайлова, Татьяна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The report discusses the spatial distribution of economic activity in the Russian Federation in the context of global trends, Russian history and modern research in the field of economic geography. The report analyzes the evolution processes of the spatial organization of the Russian economy in the past and the present based on the results of research conducted by the staff of IORI RANEPA and other authors in the field of geography of firm productivity, production location, firm demography and migration in Russia. The main trends in the spatial evolution of the Russian economy are highlighted and its forecast for the period up to 2050 is proposed. |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:021924&r=all |
| By: | Martine Audibert (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Marlène Guillon (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Jacky Mathonnat (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International) |
| Abstract: | Mongolia is facing strong constraints on the public financing of health expenditures since the economic crisis that started in 2012. In this context, achieving universal health care requires an improvement of health facilities' efficiency. No published study has quantitatively investigated the efficiency of primary care facilities in former soviet health systems that are still over-reliant on inpatient and specialized care. We study the efficiency level and determinants of Soum Health Centers (SHCs) that provide primary care in rural areas of Mongolia. Data on activity and resources were collected in all SHCs of five rural regions between 2013 and 2015, for which it was possible to get complete and reliable data. We use a double bootstrap Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) procedure to estimate SHCs' efficiency and its determinants. SHCs of our sample exhibit a rather low (and declining) level of efficiency since they could, in average, increase activity by 47% without an increase in inputs. Results point to the role of demand-side factors in explaining SHCs' efficiency. We find that the size of the population in the catchment area, the share of the nomadic population and the dependency ratio are positively correlated with SHCs' efficiency. On the contrary, the poverty level of the catchment population is negatively correlated with SHCs' efficiency. |
| Keywords: | Mongolia,Primary care,Double bootstrapping,Efficiency,Data Envelopment Analysis |
| Date: | 2018–05–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01795645&r=all |
| By: | Mkrtchan, Nikita (Мкртчян, Никита) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Florinskaya, Yulia (Флоринская, Юлия) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | Based on the conducted INSAP RANEPA in 2017 - 2018. studies of international migration and internal migration of the population of the Russian Federation analyzed the prevalence and structural characteristics of skilled migration in the two largest Russian centers of attraction of migrants. The results of the survey showed that skilled migration in the previous 5 years filled up the corresponding labor market by 9-12%, while the majority of Russians (but only half of foreign workers) found work corresponding to their qualifications. The survey also showed that migration after receiving education in other regions, and not academic migration, as is commonly believed, are the main channel for the inflow of qualified specialists to the studied regions. |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:021926&r=all |
| By: | Nikolov, Plamen; Adelman, Alan |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of the New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS) in China. Exploiting the staggered implementation of an NRPS policy expansion that began in 2009, we used a difference-in-difference approach to study the effects of the introduction of pension benefits on the health status, health behaviors, and healthcare utilization of rural Chinese adults age 60 and above. The results point to three main conclusions. First, in addition to improvements in self-reported health, older adults with access to the pension program experienced significant improvements in several important measures of health, including mobility, self-care, usual activities, and vision. Second, regarding the functional domains of mobility and self-care, we found that the females in the study group led in improvements over their male counterparts. Third, in our search for the mechanisms that drive positive retirement program results, we find evidence that changes in individual health behaviors, such as a reduction in drinking and smoking, and improved sleep habits, play an important role. Our findings point to the potential benefits of retirement programs resulting from social spillover effects. In addition, these programs may lessen the morbidity burden among the retired population. |
| Keywords: | life-cycle,retirement,pension,health,aging,developing countries,China |
| JEL: | H55 H75 I10 I12 I19 J26 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:328&r=all |
| By: | Zagoršeková, Natália; Čiefová, Michaela |
| Abstract: | The paper deals with the topic of development-induced displacement based on Slovak and Czech historical experience with dam construction projects. Favourable natural conditions in the Central European area, such as hydropower potential and relief, have enabled many hydroelectric plants to be constructed, whereby no negligible number of cases have been accompanied by resettlement of the affected population. Such processes had significant social and economic consequences. In the present study we predominantly focus on the ways of compensation and treatment of the displaced, whereby comparative approach is applied. Besides, results of key informant interviews are debated in detail. The paper is concluded by policy recommendations regarding potential future development-induced displacement. |
| Keywords: | development-induced displacement, dams, compensation |
| JEL: | R23 R58 |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:92464&r=all |
| By: | Matthew E. Kahn; Pei Li |
| Abstract: | The quality of governance depends on public sector worker productivity. We use micro data from China to document that judges are less productive on polluted days. Building on the insights of Alchian and Kessel (1962), we discuss the role of organization design and the incentives of public versus for profit organizations in designing a workplace that reduces the productivity costs of local disamenities. We find that the public sector productivity elasticities are larger than published estimates of the private sector productivity elasticities with respect to pollution. |
| JEL: | H11 Q53 |
| Date: | 2019–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25594&r=all |
| By: | Trunin, Pavel (Трунин, Павел) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Bozhechkova, Alexandra (Божечкова, Александра) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Goryunov, Eugene (Горюнов, Евгений) (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Kiyutsevskaya, Anna (Киюцевская, Анна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Sinelnikova-Muryleva, Elena (Синельникова-Мурылева, Елена) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The scientific report presents an assessment of the benefits and costs of the Russian economy as a result of the transition to the inflation targeting regime, analyzes its theoretical aspects, identifies the main characteristics, considers the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in the conditions of the inflation targeting regime. The authors analyzed the international experience of the functioning of economies under conditions of inflation targeting, on the basis of which the key prerequisites, conditions and consequences of the transition to this monetary policy regime were identified. The report presents the results of an analysis of the benefits and costs of the Bank of Russia transition to inflation targeting, as well as its correlation with the floating exchange rate regime. The success of the Russian experience of the transition to the inflation targeting regime lies in achieving inflation target, close to 4%. Nevertheless, the positive effects of lowering inflation will fully manifest themselves as inflationary expectations decrease and stabilize around the target level. |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:021914&r=all |
| By: | Drobyshevsky, Sergey (Дробышевский, Сергей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Koval, Alexandra (Коваль, Александра) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Levashenko, Antonina (Левашенко, Антонина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Trunin, Pavel (Трунин, Павел) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Sinelnikov-Murylev, Sergey (Синельников-Мурылев, Сергей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Russian Foreign Trade Academy, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | In Russia today, currency restrictions remain that do not correspond to the realities of a market economy and create obstacles for Russian business and citizens: the requirement of repatriation and restrictions on the use of foreign accounts. The main argument in favor of maintaining currency control is its need for macroeconomic stability, tax administration and anti-money laundering. But currency control is not the determining factor for capital outflow, and in a crisis situation restrictions on cross-border financial transactions can be introduced in the absence of currency control. This report contains a set of measures to abolish currency restrictions and improve the system of tax administration and control over money laundering. For tax control purposes, it is advisable to use tax legislation and tools for the international exchange of information. In order to combat money laundering, it is necessary to improve the risk management system and develop international cooperation among regulatory bodies. |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:021910&r=all |
| By: | Hansing, Katrin; Hoffmann, Bert |
| Abstract: | Few political transformations have attacked social inequalities more thoroughly than the 1959 Cuban Revolution. However, as the survey data in this paper shows, 60 years on, structural inequalities which echo the pre-revolutionary socio-ethnic hierarchies are returning. While official Cuban statistics are mute about social differences along racial lines, the authors were able to conduct a unique, nationwide survey which shows the contrary. If the revolutionary, state-run economy and radical social policies were the main social elevators for the formerly underprivileged classes in socialist Cuba, the economic crisis and depressed wages of the past decades have seriously undercut these achievements. Moreover, previously racialised migration patterns have produced highly unequal levels of access to family remittances, and the gradual opening of the private business sector in Cuba has largely disfavoured Afro-Cubans, due to their lack of access to pre-revolutionary property and remittances in the form of start-up capital. While social and racial inequalities have not yet reached the levels of other Latin American countries, behind the face of socialist continuity a profound restructuring of Cuban society is taking place. |
| Keywords: | Cuba,social inequality,race,socialism,migration,remittances |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:gigawp:315&r=all |
| By: | Naudé, Wim (Maastricht University); Surdej, Aleksander (OECD); Cameron, Martin (Trade Advisory Research (Pty) Ltd) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we determine the industry 4.0 (I4.0) readiness of eight Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs): Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland, Romania, the Slovak Republic and Slovenia. We outline the nature of manufacturing in the region, describe three distinct time periods of industrialization since 1990, and explain the nature of I4.0. Using measures reflecting three key dimensions of I4.0-readiness, namely technological, entrepreneurial and governance competencies, we find that the Czech Republic, Lithuania, Hungary and Slovenia are most I4.0-ready, and that Bulgaria, Slovakia, Romania and Poland are the least ready of the CEECs. We make a number of recommendations. All the countries in the region could do more to promote entrepreneurship; to diversify and grow manufacturing export markets through focused trade facilitation and competitive exchange rates; and to cooperate regionally on industrial policy - through for instance establishing a regional CEEC I4.0 Platform. |
| Keywords: | industrialization, technology, manufacturing, innovation, entrepreneurship, Eastern and Central Europe, industry 4.0, industrial policy |
| JEL: | O14 O25 O33 O52 P27 |
| Date: | 2019–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12141&r=all |
| By: | Gorlin, Yury (Горлин, Юрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Lyashok, Viktor (Ляшок, Виктор) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The changes in the pension legislation adopted in November 2018, related to raising the retirement age, determine one of the most significant and responsible decisions in the socio-economic sphere that have been taken in recent decades. This decision will affect to a greater or lesser extent the majority of Russians, will affect the country's economy and will be a challenge for almost all social institutions. This report presents an analysis of the consequences of the implementation of legislation adopted in connection with raising the retirement age for the mandatory pension insurance system, the labor market, and the level of poverty. The report formulates proposals for making adjustments to the pension system in connection with raising the retirement age and possible measures to prevent the associated risks. |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:021921&r=all |
| By: | Nie, Peng (University of Hohenheim); Li, Qing (University of Sherbrooke); Sousa-Poza, Alfonso (University of Hohenheim) |
| Abstract: | Using data from the 2009 China Health and Nutrition Survey, this study investigates China's income-health gradient by analyzing the effect of both current and long-term household income on 22 blood-based biomarkers, 4 used as individual variables and all 22 assessed as a composite. After applying a two-step residual inclusion estimator, we find limited evidence of an income-health gradient irrespective of whether the income measure is current or long term. Because risky behavior may attenuate income's positive effects on health, we also analyze the association between income and such health-influencing factors as alcohol consumption, smoking, diet, physical activity, and dietary knowledge. Although we find that higher incomes go hand-in-hand with some of these factors (in particular, a higher number of cigarettes smoked per day), they also promote poorer diets (higher consumption of fats and calories). However, the fact that these effects are small, dependent on income measure, and susceptible to reporting biases makes it unlikely that they are attenuating income's potentially positive effects on health. |
| Keywords: | biomarkers, income-health gradient, China |
| JEL: | I12 I14 I15 |
| Date: | 2019–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12165&r=all |
| By: | Balandina, Galina (Баландина, Галина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Ponomarev, Yuriy (Пономарев, Юрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Sinelnikov-Murylev, Sergey (Синельников-Мурылев, Сергей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Russian Foreign Trade Academy, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The presented report analyzed the most important areas of the Russian customs service, the organization of state control over compliance with trade policy measures (movement of goods across the customs border), prospects for the development of customs activities in accordance with the updated customs legislation, government and departmental plans for the development of the customs service. The findings presented in the report are based on the need to achieve ambitious indicators of national goals and strategic development objectives of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2024, as defined by the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation dated May 7, 2018, studying the best international practice of customs organization, and also based on government plans for the development of digital technologies in public administration. The main necessary changes in customs activity are setting up a risk management system, changing business processes, optimizing the distribution and redistribution of functions between federal executive bodies exercising control and supervisory functions. The report also presents specific proposals for individual instruments of customs regulation aimed at stimulating the development of exports and international transit. The conclusions and proposals presented in the report are recommended to be used when drawing up action plans of the Government of the Russian Federation, developing regulatory legal acts in the field of customs, and making management decisions in this area. |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:021911&r=all |
| By: | Jakub Sokolowski; Aneta Kielczewska; Piotr Lewandowski |
| Abstract: | The EU Member States are obliged to assess the scale of energy poverty in their respective national contexts. We propose a new definition of energy poverty in Poland, with different levels of specificity corresponding to the needs of different levels of administration. We also propose a set of five indicators for measuring energy poverty based on data from the Polish Household Budget Survey. Two expenditure-based indicators identify energy-poor households: a modified version of the Low Income High Cost indicator and an indicator based on actual energy expenditures. Three self-reported indicators related to financial capability, the physical condition of the dwelling, and the subjective level of thermal comfort are used to measure the severity of energy poverty. We find that all five indicators show that the older the dwelling is, the higher the risk of energy poverty is. Moreover, while the expenditure-based measures show that households living in detached houses have higher energy poverty rates than households living in multifamily buildings, the thermal comfort indicator shows the opposite relationship. Households living in dwellings without central heating are at a higher risk of energy poverty, according to all self-reported indicators. |
| Keywords: | fuel poverty, LIHC, thermal comfort, energy affordability |
| JEL: | I32 Q40 R29 |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ibt:report:rr012019&r=all |
| By: | Yang, Fei; Shi, Beibei; Xu, Ming; Feng, Chen |
| Abstract: | As the problem of carbon emissions is becoming increasingly more serious around the world, how to balance carbon emissions reduction and economic growth has become an important issue in the field of ecological economics. China is the world's largest carbon dioxide emitter, and China's Low-Carbon Pilot (CLCP) policy has significantly reduced carbon dioxide emissions and achieved expected benefits. However, is environmental quality improving at the expense of economic growth? Based on panel data from 286 Chinese prefecture-level cities and from Chinese micro-industrial enterprises from 2001 to 2013, this article focuses on the causal effect of environmental policy on regional economic growth and the benefits and changes in the behavior of enterprises through a quasi-natural experiment and the difference-in-differences (DID) method. The results are as follows. First, the CLCP policy significantly promotes regional economic growth. Moreover, as the implementation time of the policy continues, environmental regulation has a greater effect of promoting economic growth. Second, although the CLCP policy significantly increases various production costs, it also promotes the growth of enterprises' output and benefits. Third, under the pressure of the significant increase in enterprise cost caused by environmental regulation, enterprises choose the positive way of strengthening internal management, improving efficiency and increasing innovation instead of choosing the negative way of trans-regional transfer to exit the market; accordingly, enterprises finally achieve an improvement in output and benefits. |
| Keywords: | CLCP policy,economic growth,behavior of enterprise,DID |
| JEL: | O12 O13 Q38 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201913&r=all |
| By: | Eugenia Chernina (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Previous research has shown that the effects of natural shocks on household migration decisions may go in different directions. This paper explores the impact of natural shocks (self-reported) on the migration of members of Kyrgyz rural households. Employing a panel dataset from the Life in Kyrgyzstan Survey (2010-2013) we show that out of five studied shocks only droughts and floods negatively affect migration, while other shocks (cold winters, earthquakes and landslides) on average do not lead to any statistically significant change in migration. However, available migration networks, household financial capacity and involvement in agriculture are sources of differential impacts. Exploring the means of migration funding, we find that both liquidity and borrowing constraints are important for the poorest households. Help from friends and relatives for financing migration, if it comes, is sourced to rich households |
| Keywords: | labour migration, migration decision, Kyrgyzstan, natural disasters, financial constraints |
| JEL: | Z |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:214/ec/2019&r=all |
| By: | Fujii, Hidemichi; Managi, Shunsuke; Kaneko, Shinji |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes air pollutant substances management in Chinese industrial sectors from 1998 to 2009. Decomposition analysis applying the logarithmic mean divisia index is used to analyze changes in air pollutant substances emissions by the following five factors: coal pollution intensity (CPI), end-of-pipe treatment (EOP), energy mix (EM), productive efficiency change (EFF), and production scale changes (PSC). We focus on the three pollutants which are sulfur dioxide (SO2), dust substance, and soot substance. We clarify SO2 emissions from Chinese industrial sectors have increased because of the increase in the production scale. However, the inducing EOP equipment and improvements in energy efficiency have prevented an increase in SO2 emissions commensurate with the production increasing. Second, soot emissions were successfully reduced and controlled in all industries except the steel industry between 1998 and 2009, even though the production scale expanded for these industries. This reduction is achieved because of improvements in the EOP equipment technology and in energy efficiency. Finally, dust emissions decreased by nearly 65% between 1998 and 2009 in the Chinese industrial sectors. This successful emissions reduction was achieved by implementing EOP and pollution prevention activities during the production processes, especially in the cement industry. We clarify that pollution prevention effect in cement industry is mainly caused by production technological development rather than scale merit. |
| Keywords: | Sustainable industrial production; Pollution prevention; End-of-pipe; Air pollution; Scale merit; China |
| JEL: | Q01 Q53 Q56 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:92234&r=all |
| By: | Bozhechkova, Alexandra (Божечкова, Александра) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Klyachko, Tatiana (Клячко, Татьяна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Knobel, Alexander (Кнобель, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Russian Foreign Trade Academy, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Loshchenkova, Anna (Лощенкова, Анна) (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Lubimov, Ivan (Любимов Иван) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Sinelnikov-Murylev, Sergey (Синельников-Мурылев, Сергей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Russian Foreign Trade Academy, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The scientific report examines the relationship of investment in education, increasing human capital and accelerating economic growth. At the center of the analysis are the situation in the Russian education and those changes in this area that affect the accumulation of human capital. The institutional problems that have accumulated in the education system, which reduce its effectiveness, and the forks of educational policy related to solving these problems are considered in detail. It justifies the need for a much larger budget maneuver than provided for in the national project “Education”. On the basis of theoretical and empirical models, as well as world experience, a system of measures has been considered, which, by increasing human capital, can have a positive effect on Russia's economic growth rates. |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:021915&r=all |
| By: | Guan, Kaiyu (University of Illinois); Hien, Ngo The (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development); Rao, Lakshman Nagraj (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | Despite a growing interest in using satellite data to estimate paddy rice yield in Southeast Asia, significant cloud coverage has led to a scarcity of usable optical data for such analysis. In this paper, we study the feasibility of using two alternative sources of satellite data—(i) surface reflectance fusion data which integrates Landsat and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images, and (ii) L-band radar backscatter data from the Advanced Land Observing Satellite 2 (ALOS-2) PALSAR-2 sensors—to circumvent the cloud cover problem and estimate yield in Thai Binh Province, Viet Nam during the second growing season of 2015. Our findings indicate that although Landsat– MODIS fusion data are not necessarily beneficial for paddy rice mapping when compared with only using Landsat data, fusion data allows us to estimate the peak value of various vegetation indexes and derive the best empirical relationship between these indexes and yield data from the field. We also find that the L-band radar data not only has a lower performance in paddy rice mapping when compared with optical data, but also contributes little to rice yield estimation. |
| Keywords: | agriculture; ALOS-2; crop cutting; crop yield; Fusion; Landsat; MODIS; paddy rice; remote sensing; Viet Nam |
| JEL: | C40 O13 Q18 |
| Date: | 2018–03–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0541&r=all |