nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2018‒11‒12
twenty papers chosen by
J. David Brown
United States Census Bureau

  1. Značaj Europskog semestra za reforme ekonomskih politika u Hrvatskoj i odabranim novim članicama EU-a. U: Višnja Samardžija (ur.). Izazovi provedbe europskih politika u Hrvatskoj. IRMO: Zagreb By Samardzija, Visnja; Jurlin, Krešimir; Ivana, Skazlić
  2. Studiu retrospectiv privind comerțul exterior al României în ultimii 100 de ani By Zaman, Gheorghe; Georgescu, George
  3. Regional heterogeneity of household lending based on the findings of the household finance survey: regional features and potential risks By Mamedli Mariam; Andrey Sinyakov
  4. Beyond "dependent development" in a high-tech industry? The interplay between domestic institutions and transnational sectoral governance in the trajectories of emerging Polish IT firms By Lechowski, Grzegorz
  5. Analyzing the Size and Affecting Factors of Household Food Waste in China By Jiang, J.-Q.; Yu, T.; Wang, Z.-H.; Qi, D.-M; Huang, W.-Z
  6. The Impact of Agricultural Subsidies on Farm Production: A Synthetic Control Method Approach By Matej Opatrny
  7. The Timing of Childbearing and Female Labor Supply in China By Ma, Xinxin; Zhang, Jingwen
  8. Earthbound Labor and Transitory Exit from Farming in China By Ma, M.
  9. The ?Lewis Turning Point? in China and its implication for the emergence of a ?Middle Income Trap?: evidence from provincial data By John Hicks; Claire Harvey
  10. Regional and Sectoral Impacts of Water Redline Policy in China: Results from an Integrated Regional CGE Water Model By Zhang, Y.; Chen, K.; Zhu, T.
  11. Collaborative Innovation with External Partners in China: Cultural Similarity Effect By Chun-Yao Tseng
  12. Long- and short-term determinants of water user cooperation: experimental evidence from Central Asia By Amirova, I.; Petrick, M.; Djanibekov, N.
  13. Ethnicity and risk sharing network formation: Evidence from rural Viet Nam By Hoang; Laure Pasquier-Doumer; Camille Saint-Macary
  14. Trends, transferring, and sources of aquatic products Risks in China: Evidence from the sampling inspections by national and provincial CFDA By Liang, Q.; Zhou, J.; Jin, C.; Zhou, W.; Wang, Y.
  15. Non-Performing Loans, Fiscal Costs and Credit Expansion in China By Huixin Bi; Yongquan Cao; Wei Dong
  16. Residual Shape Risk on Czech Natural Gas Market By Karel Janda; Jakub Kourilek
  17. What drive the development of e-commerce in rural China--- the empirical evidence from the emergence of Taobao Villages By Liu, M.; Huang, J.; Zhang, Q.; Gao, S.
  18. SinoTERM365, Bottom-up Representation of China at the Prefectural Level By Glyn Wittwer; Mark Horridge
  19. Financial Crisis, Creditor-Debtor Conflict, and Political Extremism By Gyongyosi, Gyozo; Verner, Emil
  20. Ownership Concentration and Firm Performance in European Emerging Economies: A Meta-Analysis By Iwasaki, Ichiro; Mizobata, Satoshi

  1. By: Samardzija, Visnja; Jurlin, Krešimir; Ivana, Skazlić
    Abstract: This paper analyses the significance of the European Semester for carrying out economic reforms in Croatia with the comparisons to the experiences of selected new European Union Member States. The purpose of the paper is to contribute to wider understanding of the European Semester. The starting points of the analytical approach are as follows: to investigate the aspects of the functioning of the European Semester at the EU level and its significance for the Member States, to analyse experiences of selected new Member States (including Croatia) and provide recommendations for the implementation of the European Semester in Croatia. In accordance with the POLO-Cro28 project methodology, new EU Member States in Croatia’s neighbourhood were selected for the purpose of the comparative analysis, namely the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Slovenia. Croatia shares similar economic challenges regarding economic and social issues with these countries. A further selection criterion was the equal representation of the euro-area countries (Slovakia and Slovenia) and countries that are not part of the euro-area (Czech Republic and Hungary). This paper is based on available comparative studies and academic articles, official EU documents and progress evaluations on reaching the country-specific recommendations within the European Semester (country reports), national reports (National Reform Programs and Stability or Convergence Programs) and other sources.
    Keywords: European union, new member states, policies, European Semester
    JEL: A10 A11
    Date: 2018–07–07
  2. By: Zaman, Gheorghe; Georgescu, George
    Abstract: Throughout the last century, Romania's economy has suffered major adverse costs, especially caused by external factors, with an adverse impact both on the volume of foreign trade and its commodity structure and geographical orientation. The study focuses on the evolution of Romania's foreign trade over the past 100 years trying to highlight the main features and trends in the different stages of the Romanian economy development, covering the periods 1918-1947, 1948-1989 and 1990-2017, marked by the the interwar economy particularities, the socialist political and economic regime, and the Romania's transition to the market economy, in the context of pre-accession and integration in the European Union. The presentation of the main coordinates of Romania's trade policies precedes the foreign trade quantitative and qualitative analysis for each of the above mentioned periods.
    Keywords: foreign trade; trade deficit; transition; EU integration; FDI; Romania
    JEL: B22 F10 F15 N14 N74 O52 P33
    Date: 2018–10
  3. By: Mamedli Mariam (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Andrey Sinyakov (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)
    Abstract: According to the household finance surveys conducted in 2013 and 2015, the credit penetration rate varies across federal districts. Differences in credit penetration levels can be partly attributed to the loan demand factors. For example, low credit penetration in the Central Federal District stems from the relatively high level of accumulated net assets (especially as regards liquid assets), which reduces the demand for loans. In Eastern Russia, in districts with comparable income levels and less net assets, high credit penetration rates are primarily attributable to income growth expectations. In these regions, accumulated net assets are generally viewed as a supplement to loans. Analysis of the loan demand model in Southern Russia points out a relatively high level of risk, with loan demand growing despite deterioration of the financial situation (including financial expectations). Low credit penetration in the underperforming districts has largely to do with credit supply constraints as banks factor in higher risks associated with strong gross regional product volatility and job market uncertainties. This means that aggressive loan expansion driven by the growing number of new borrowers in the federal districts with small and volatile incomes and a lower credit penetration rate may threaten the social and financial stability in such regions.
    Date: 2018–11
  4. By: Lechowski, Grzegorz
    Abstract: The present study investigates the relatively successful development of the homegrown IT industry in Poland since the early 1990s. The case is theoretically interesting because it runs counter to the dominant perspective on the economic systems in postcommunist Central Europe, which emphasizes the region's dependency on foreign direct investment (FDI) for industrial development. The empirical analysis focuses on the industry's two key players, Asseco and Comarch, which are among Europe's largest enterprise IT (EIT) vendors. It uses rich historical data to reconstruct the firms' strategies regarding sales market operations, corporate finance, and productive organization. The study's main theoretical interest is to explore how the firms' successful development has been shaped by the interplay between home-country institutions and the governance structure of the transnational EIT industry. The analysis indicates, first, that the firms have benefited from a well-functioning local capital market, the domestic supply of high-skilled labor, and some characteristics of the home country sales market. Second, the study reveals that the firms' development has been conditioned by the ongoing modularization processes in the EIT sector. In their initially home market oriented operations, the analyzed firms focused on the downstream segments of the EIT value chain while sourcing the more high-tech components (e.g. databases) from collaborations with foreign suppliers. In general, the findings contribute to the discussions on catching-up processes in emerging countries, first, by demonstrating the developmental potential related to modularization processes in high-tech industries, and second, by drawing attention to how the globally fragmented production regimes intersect with country-specific institutional frameworks.
    Keywords: varieties of capitalism,sectoral systems of innovation,IT industry,postcommunist Europe,Poland,Spielarten des Kapitalismus,sektorale Innovationssysteme,IT-Industrie,post-kommunistisches Europa,Polen
    JEL: P12 P16 L86
    Date: 2018
  5. By: Jiang, J.-Q.; Yu, T.; Wang, Z.-H.; Qi, D.-M; Huang, W.-Z
    Abstract: Although food waste has become an increasingly important issue in China, little attention has been given to its scale and determining factors in the related literature of food waste. This study uses the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) data surveyed in 1991, 2000 and 2009 to investigate the food waste behavior of Chinese households over the twenty years. In addition, the factors affecting food waste at home were identified and evaluated using the double hurdle model. The survey results show that the food waste amount at home per household has declined over the study span, likely due to the increase of outside-dining, while the percentage of households incurring food waste was on the rise. Also, among the factors associated with household food waste, the household size and regional differences in dietary habits were found positively correlated with food waste over time. In addition, the high-income families tended to generate more waste than low-income families after 2000. The age, education and employment characteristics of the main female member were also related with household food waste although the impact on food waste varied over time. Acknowledgement : This research uses data from China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS). And we thank the financial support from the Social Science Foundation of Liaoning Province (L16BGL038), Program for Liaoning Excellent Talents in University (WJQ2015026), the Youth Project of the Philosophy and Social Science Research, Ministry of Education of China (13YJC790057, 14YJC90094), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71303161, 71503173).
    Keywords: Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety
    Date: 2018–07
  6. By: Matej Opatrny (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic)
    Abstract: Czech farmers experienced an enormous exogenous shock when they joined the common agricultural market (CAM) and the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in 2004. Using the World Bank's dataset, we apply the synthetic control method to establish a counterfactual case of the Czech Republic food production index in the absence of the CAM and CAP. The results show that the Czech Republic would have had a higher food index if it had not entered the CAM and CAP. Moreover, we show that the CAP and CAM had different impacts on farms in the Czech Republic and Bulgaria, which have the most comparable agriculture according to the results of the synthetic control method.
    Keywords: Common Agriculture Policy, Common Agricultural Market, Subsidies, Farms, Synthetic Control Method
    JEL: C10 Q10 Q18
    Date: 2018–10
  7. By: Ma, Xinxin; Zhang, Jingwen
    Abstract: For decades Chinese married women have delayed conceiving their first child influenced by government birth limitation policies, the improvement of women’s educational attainment and the changes in childbearing preferences. Even though it can be thought that the delayed childbearing may affect female labor supply in China, there are few empirical studies on the issue. Long-term longitudinal survey data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) from 1989 to 2015 is used to conduct an empirical study to investigate the impact of the timing of childbearing on the labor supply (labor participation and irregular work) of Chinese married women. This study employs the random-effects model and the instrumental variables (IV) method to address the heterogeneity and endogeneity problems. The results indicate that the decision to delay childbearing may increase the female labor supply and decrease the probability of women becoming irregular workers. Robustness checks confirm these results.
    Keywords: Timing of childbearing, female labor supply, irregular work, work-family conflict, China
    JEL: J13 J16 J22
    Date: 2018–10
  8. By: Ma, M.
    Abstract: Smallholder farming remains predominant in Chinese agricultural production, despite massive outflows of rural labor to nonfarm sectors. Although a large number of agricultural households in China rent out the farmland for which they hold contract use rights, most of them still partially or seasonally cultivate the contract land. I collected survey data from 512 households in Southwest China to examine the arrangements of farmland, including abandonment, as households make transitory reductions in cultivation sizes. I develop a theory to explain why households tend to maximize the expected income by reducing cultivation sizes partially and seasonally. The theory centers upon the value of farmland as a safety net and an appreciable asset for agricultural households under imperfect land tenure and limited access to social benefit programs. The non-productive, use-based value of contract land is characterized by a function of simultaneous choices of the cultivation size and farm labor. Flexible reallocation of land use rights helps maximize the expected income, but the inefficiency in labor allocation remains considerable. Using the survey data, I find on-farm productivity of part-time farmers to be significantly lower than the opportunity nonfarm wage rate, implying $45 billion nonfarm earnings to be forgone by agricultural households per year. Acknowledgement : I am extremely grateful to Lovell Jarvis, Kevin Novan, Richard Sexton, and Jeffrey Williams for critical and insightful comments on earlier drafts. For helpful discussion and feedback, I thank Timothy Beatty, Steve Boucher, Colin Carter, Michael Carter, Xiaomeng Cui, Travis Lybbert, Xinshen Diao, Xiaopeng Luo, Alex McCalla, Heidi Schweizer, Daniel Sumner, Daniel Tregeagle, Yan Xu, and Xiaobo Zhang. I also thank Jianwei Zhao and Xiaomei Shen among other colleagues and government officials in China for their generous support to my field surveys in Sichuan Province. Funding for this research was provided by Henry Jastro Graduate Research Award and Banner Fellowship.
    Keywords: Labor and Human Capital
    Date: 2018–07
  9. By: John Hicks (Charles Sturt University); Claire Harvey (Charles Sturt University)
    Abstract: Economic development in China has major implications for the world economy. A China which pushes on to become a high income economy will command considerable influence on the world stage. However, to the extent that China is caught in a middle income trap (MIT), that influence may be mitigated. The literature suggests that the emergence of the Lewis Turning Point (LTP) will signal the possible onset of a MIT. This paper, therefore, pursues the question of whether or not a LTP has been reached in China ? an issue of some debate in the literature ? through the application of provincial data to a simple fixed effects econometric model designed to detect the presence of a LTP.
    Keywords: Middle Income Trap; Lewis Turning Point; China
    JEL: O10
    Date: 2018–07
  10. By: Zhang, Y.; Chen, K.; Zhu, T.
    Abstract: China has started to implement the most stringent of Three Red Lines water policy since 2012, which sets targets for total water use, water use efficiency, and water quality for a number of benchmark years to 2030 by province and prefecture. This paper aims to develop an integrated regional CGE and water resource model at river basin-provincial level for China and to quantify regional and sectoral economic impacts of three red lines. Five policy scenarios are constructed to assess the impacts of water red lines, including the red line of total water use cap, irrigation efficiency, industrial water use intensity, surface water pollution and all redlines combined. The red line of total water use cap will increase water shortage drastically, leading to considerable negative impacts on the economic growth of East, South Central and Southwest. The sectors with the higher water use intensity such as machinery and equipment, metal and metal products, chemical products and non-metal products are affected most. Other two red lines need to go hand in hand to minimize water shortage and mitigate potentially negative economic impacts. Establishing regional water use right market and promoting economic restructuring are two policy options to cope with water scarcity challenge. Acknowledgement : We would like to acknowledge Winston Yu from the World Bank for the guidance and Shuzhong Gu from Development Research Center of the State Council (DRC) for his valuable comments in the early stage of the research. We are grateful to Xinshen Diao and James Thurlow from International Food Policy Research Institute for their guidance on developing regional CGE model. We acknowledge funding support by the World bank through the project Mind the Gap: Balancing Growth and Water Security in China , and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) (Grant No.71761147004) ,the Agricultural Science and Technology Innovation Program (ASTIP-IAED-2017-04?
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy
    Date: 2018–07
  11. By: Chun-Yao Tseng (Tunghai University)
    Abstract: This study focuses on collaborative innovation in China ICT(Information and Communications Technology) industry. Although prior findings point out that collaborative innovations do facilitate innovation performance, there are some unresolved problems and one of which is the problem of ?collaborating with whom?. Is there the effect of cultural similarity in collaborative innovation. This paper aims to contribute to the literature of collaborative innovation by investigating into the effects of collaborative partners on innovation performance from the perspective of cultural similarity. Based on the analysis of patent and citation from the U.S. Patents and Trademark Office (USPTO) from 1985 to 2010, empirical results are shown the performance of collaborative innovation between China and foreign is significantly greater than that of domestic collaborative innovation in China. The performance of collaborative innovation between China and culturally similar country is significantly better than that between China assignees and culturally different country.
    Keywords: Collaborative Innovation; Cultural Similarity; External Partners; Innovation across Cultures.
    JEL: O30 O32 M14
    Date: 2018–07
  12. By: Amirova, I.; Petrick, M.; Djanibekov, N.
    Abstract: This study contributes to the understanding of long- and short- term determinants of cooperation among water users. We experimentally investigate the potential of water users self-governance in enhancing their contributions to a common pool as opposed to external regulation. Our focus is on the irrigated areas of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Due to their Soviet past, these countries have a reputation for low bottom-up cooperation potential. Based on the different pre-Soviet irrigation traditions of the two study sites, we assess the effectiveness of short-term incentives compared to long term cultural factors of cooperation. History might matter, but we find it does not predetermine the success of current water decentralization in ancient as compared to relatively recently established irrigation sites. We find that external regulation, in fact, decreases farmers cooperation, whereas face-to-face communication increases it. This finding calls into question the top-down approach prevalent in current water policies of the region. Moreover, it suggests the viability of endogenous cooperation and hence encourages the implementation of truly self-governed water management policies in Central Asia. However, the substantial heterogeneity in individual contributions apparent at the village level also signals a warning that one-size-fits-all approaches to local cooperation are unlikely to succeed. Acknowledgement : This study was conducted in the framework of a research project Institutional change in land and labour relations of Central Asia s irrigated agriculture . The research project is funded by the VolkswagenStiftung within the funding initiative "Between Europe and the Orient A Focus on Research and Higher Education in/on Central Asia and the Caucasus".
    Keywords: Resource/Energy Economics and Policy
    Date: 2018–07
  13. By: Hoang (PSL, Université Paris-Dauphine, Paris, France, UMR 225 DIAL, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Paris, France); Laure Pasquier-Doumer (IRD, UMR DIAL, PSL, Université Paris-Dauphine); Camille Saint-Macary (IRD, UMR DIAL, PSL, Université Paris-Dauphine)
    Abstract: Ethnic inequality remains a persistent challenge for Viet Nam. This paper aims at better understanding this ethnic gap through exploring the formation of risk sharing networks in rural areas. It first investigates the differences in risk sharing networks between the ethnic minorities and the Kinh majority, in terms of size and similarity attributes of the networks. Second, it relies on the concept of ethnic homophily in link formation to explain the mechanisms leading to those differences. In particular, it disentangles the effect of demographic and local distribution of ethnic groups on risk-sharing network formation from cultural and social distance between ethnic groups, while controlling for the disparities in the geographical environment. Results show that ethnic minorities have smaller and less diversified networks than the majority. This is partly explained by differences in wealth and in the geographical environment. But ethnicity also plays a direct role in risk-sharing network formation through the combination of preferences to form a link with people from the same ethnic group (inbreeding homophily) and the relative size of ethnic groups conditioning the opportunities to form a link (baseline homophily). Inbreeding homophily is found to be stronger among the Kinh majority, leading to the exclusion of ethnic minorities from Kinh networks, which are supposed to be more efficient to cope with covariant risk because they are more diversified in the occupation and location of their members. This evidence suggests that inequalities among ethnic groups in Viet Nam are partly rooted in the cultural and social distances between them.
    Keywords: Risk-sharing network, homophily, ethnic gap, Viet Nam, Vietnam.
    JEL: O12 I31 D85
    Date: 2018
  14. By: Liang, Q.; Zhou, J.; Jin, C.; Zhou, W.; Wang, Y.
    Abstract: This paper maps the risks of aquatic products in different seasons, categorizes risk items, explores the transferring of risk items along the supply chain, and identifies actual risk sources of aquatic products in China, based on the data of regular sampling inspections for aquatic products conducted by national and provincial CFDA. Both descriptive analysis and crossing matrix analysis are used. Some explicit results are derived from the analyses. First, the quality and safety of aquatic products in China exhibit stable improving. Second, economically motivated adulterations by people s behaviors such as the use of drugs and chemical additives are the most important causes of risks for aquatic products. Third, risks at upstream parts transfer along the supply chain to the downstream. Fourth, the two riskiest stages causing food safety problem are manufacture and farming. Specifically, most risks for fresh aquatic products lie in farming, while those for processed products are at manufacture. However, the assignment of regulation strength and resources does not match with the distribution of risks. Stronger regulations such as the adoption of origin certificate at farms and more sampling inspections at manufacture are necessary to control for the risks of aquatic products. Acknowledgement : The work was supported by the the project Systemic Risk Management of Food Supply Chains in China , National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 71773109, 71573227, 71633002); and the Project of Humanities and Social Science of the Ministry of Education in China (grant number 14YJC790089); Zhejiang Philosophy and Social Science (Grant No. 17NDJC193YB).
    Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty
    Date: 2018–07
  15. By: Huixin Bi; Yongquan Cao; Wei Dong
    Abstract: This paper studies how the credit expansion policy pursued by the Chinese government in an effort to stimulate its economy in the post-crisis period affects bank–firm loan contracts and the macroeconomy. We build a structural model with financial frictions in which the optimal loan contract reflects the trade-off between leverage and the probability of default. Credit expansion is introduced in the form of the government's partial guarantee on bank loans to (i) general production firms or (ii) infrastructure producers. We show that in the case of general credit expansion, more persistent credit shocks lead to higher credit multipliers at all horizons, as the benefits of persistently alleviating firms' borrowing constraint outweigh the costs associated with higher non-performing loans. We also show that a more persistent targeted credit expansion raises the production of infrastructure goods. However, higher infrastructure production not only boosts the public capital stock and generates positive externalities, it also crowds out private investment and consumption. With a short-lived targeted credit easing, the expansionary channel of public capital dominates, boosting output. As the credit expansion becomes more persistent, the contractionary channel of lower private investment starts to outweigh the expansionary channel in the medium term.
    Keywords: Credit and credit aggregates, Fiscal Policy, International topics
    JEL: E62 E44
    Date: 2018
  16. By: Karel Janda (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic; Department of Banking and Insurance, Faculty of Finance and Accounting, University of Economics, Namesti Winstona Churchilla 4, 13067 Prague, Czech Republic); Jakub Kourilek (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic)
    Abstract: This paper introduces residual shape risk as a new subclass of energy commodity risk. Residual shape risk is caused by insufficient liquidity of energy forward market when retail energy supplier has to hedge his short sales by a non-exible standard baseload product available on wholesale market. Because of this inflexibility energy supplier is left with residual unhedged position which has to be closed at spot market. The residual shape risk is defined as a difference between spot and forward prices weighted by residual unhedged position which size depends on the shape of customers' portfolio of a given retail energy supplier. For empirical evaluation of residual shape risk we use a real portfolio of a leading natural gas retail supplier in the Czech Republic over the period 2016-2017. The size of residual shape risk in our example corresponds approximately to 1 percent of profit margin of natural gas retail supplier.
    Keywords: natural gas markets, spot prices, forward prices, residual shape risk
    JEL: C51 C58 Q41 Q47
    Date: 2018–10
  17. By: Liu, M.; Huang, J.; Zhang, Q.; Gao, S.
    Abstract: Rural e-commerce has developed rapidly in China, but it has presented big regional differences. This paper aims to empirically examine what determines the development of rural e-commerce in China. It is further hoped to contribute to reduce the gap of regional differences in e-commerce development and prompt the e-commerce development in underdeveloped areas. The emerging and rapid growth of Taobao Villages is a typical example of rural e-commerce development. We therefore focus on exploring the major driving forces of emerging Taobao Villages in China. The data used in this study are generated through Geography Information System with location of each Taobao Village and data mining with web crawler, which includes the data for a total sample of 2018 Taobao Villages over 2013-2017. The random-effect probit and bivariate probit models with robust standard errors and clustering standard errors are estimated. The results show that the economic condition of a village and its surrounding areas and the distances to national way and highway impact the development of rural e-commerce at different extents. The area with developed e-commerce promotes rural e-commerce development of the nearby areas, which reflects there are spillover effects on developing rural e-commerce. The paper concludes with several policy implications. Acknowledgement : Funding for this research was supported by a grant from the Asian Development Bank (2017X127.CCA). The authors would like to thank the colleagues who helped to collect data. They are Dr. Shi Shu, Yueying Bai, Xiya Zhao, Yaqi Hu and Yuling Li. We are also grateful to Dr. Hongdong Guo, Dr. Qihui Chen, Dr. Shi Min and Jiaqi Qi for their useful suggestions to improve the quality of this paper.
    Keywords: Research and Development/ Tech Change/Emerging Technologies
    Date: 2018–07
  18. By: Glyn Wittwer; Mark Horridge
    Abstract: The TERM methodology requires relatively modest data requirements to create a multi-regional, sub-national CGE database. SinoTERM365 is an extreme form of stretching available data, with the master database representing 162 sectors in 365 prefectural regions of the Chinese economy. A collaborative effort is envisaged among users to enable ongoing improvements to the database. The TERM approach facilitates rapid amendments to the database when improved data are available. The alternative, to wait until better data emerge before building a model, may result in less detail and a less versatile framework for analysis. In our example, we consider a downturn in use of coal and coal-generated electricity in China.
    Keywords: sub-national general equilibrium modeling regional structural change greenhouse gas abatement
    JEL: C68 D58 R13 R15
    Date: 2018–10
  19. By: Gyongyosi, Gyozo; Verner, Emil
    Abstract: This paper studies the effect of the 2008 financial crisis on the vote share of the populist far right. We use the foreign currency borrowing of households in Hungary as a natural experiment. During the crisis the unexpected and large depreciation of the domestic currency increased the debt burden of households borrowing in foreign currencies but not of households borrowing in the local currency. We use zip code level variation in the prevalence of foreign currency borrowing of households, and show that the exposure to the depreciation significantly affected political preferences. A 10 percent unanticipated rise in indebtedness increased the vote share of the far right by 2.2 percentage points. This effect explains one third of the increase of their popularity by the 2010 election. Foreign currency debtors' naїveté, persistent extremist attitudes, local labor market shocks, and immigration do not account for this increase. We present evidence that the conflict between creditors and debtors about the resolution of the crisis is an important mechanism in the electoral success of the far right. The far right sided with debtors against creditors by advocating policies to help households with foreign currency loans.
    Date: 2018
  20. By: Iwasaki, Ichiro; Mizobata, Satoshi
    Abstract: This paper aims to perform a large-scale meta-analysis to examine the relationship between ownership concentration and firm performance in emerging economies of Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. A meta-synthesis of 1517 estimates collected from 69 previous studies indicated the presence of a statistically significant and positive effect of ownership concentration on firm performance. The synthesized effect size, however, is only modest at best. A meta-regression analysis conducted to identify the factors underlying the small effect size revealed that differences in target industries, estimation periods, design of ownership variables, data sources, estimators, and choices of control variables could have had systematic and profound effects on the empirical results presented in previous studies. We have also noted that publication selection bias is strongly suspected in this research field, and that, due to the magnitude of this bias, existing studies cannot be expected to provide genuine evidence regarding the effect of ownership concentration on firm performance in European emerging economies. Further empirical studies are required to identify the true effect in this region.
    Keywords: ownership concentration, enterprise restructuring, firm performance, European emerging economies, meta-analysis, publication selection bias
    JEL: D22 G32 G34 L25 P21 P31
    Date: 2018–10

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