nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2018‒07‒23
twenty papers chosen by
J. David Brown
United States Census Bureau

  1. Assessment of the Benefits, Risks and Costs of the Transition to the Regime of Preferential Trade and Economic Interaction with the People's Republic of China By Knobel, Alexander
  2. Economic dispatch in the electricity sector in China: potential benefits and challenges ahead By Chen, H.; Chyong CK.; Kang, J-N.; Wei Y-M.
  3. Carbon emissions intensity reduction target for China¡¯s power industry: An efficiency and productivity perspective By Yujiao Xian; Ke Wang; Xunpeng Shi; Chi Zhang; Yi-Ming Wei; Zhimin Huang
  4. Sectoral Indices of the Terms of Trade: Development of Methodology and Overview for Russia By Magomedov, Rustam; Idrisova, Vittoria
  5. Quantitative analysis on the disparity of regional economic development in China and its evolution from 1952 to 2000 By Jianhua Xu; Nanshan Ai; Yan Lu; Yong Chen; Yiying Ling; Wenze Yue
  6. Prospects for Reducing Barriers to Exports in the Context of the Participation of Russian Firms in Global Value Chains By Kuznetsov, Dmitriy; Sedalishchev, Vladimir; Knobel, Alexander
  7. Is electricity affordable and reliable for all in Vietnam? By Minh Ha-Duong; Hoai Son Nguyen
  8. The Impact of Monetary Policy on the Balance of Payments and Macroeconomic Indicators By Korishchenko, Konstantin; Morozov, Stepan; Bryanov, G
  9. New Forms of Socio-Economic Behavior 2012-2017: Framework, Strategy, Tactics By Vakhshtayn, Victor; Stepantsov, Pavel
  10. Development of the Russian Transport Sector: Current State and Development Prospects By Ponomarev, Yuriy
  11. The Financial Performance, Restructuring and Privatisation of the Shipyards in the Republic of Croatia By Anto BAJO; Marko PRIMORAC; Martin HANICH
  12. Strengthening innovation in Poland By Nicola Brandt
  13. Institutional convergence in Europe By Schönfelder, Nina; Wagner, Helmut
  14. Evaluating Efficient Multilateral Interchange Fees: Evidence from End-User Benefits By Egor A. Krivosheya
  15. Critical factors and enablers of food quality and safety compliance risk management in the Vietnamese seafood supply chain By Thi Huong Tran
  16. Development of an Integrated System of Formalized and Personality-Oriented Indicators for Assessing the Effectiveness of Personnel Work in the State Civil and Municipal Service in the Subjects of the Russian Federation By Sinyagin, Yury; Podolskiy, Dmitriy
  17. Circle of Fortune: The Long Term Impact of Western Customs Institutions in China By Gan Jin
  18. Regional Innovation System in China: Regional comparison of technology, venture financing, and human capital focusing on Shenzhen (Japanese) By MOTOHASHI Kazuyuki
  19. Human Capital as a Source of Social and Economic Development in Modern Conditions By Aganbegyan, Abel; Kleeva, Lyudmila; Krotova, Nadezhda
  20. Corruption determinants in developing and transition economies: Insights from a multi-level analysis By Joel Cariolle

  1. By: Knobel, Alexander (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: This paper analyze the trade regime, tariff and non-tariff measures of the PRC's trade policy, including TBT and SPS measures, issues of intellectual property rights protection, subsidies, public procurement, e-commerce, regulation of special economic zones. It also examines the situation of the Chinese economy in world production and trade, the issues of export specialization, competitiveness and participation in global value chains.
    Date: 2018–06
  2. By: Chen, H.; Chyong CK.; Kang, J-N.; Wei Y-M.
    Abstract: Unlike the economic dispatch used in most power systems, electricity system dispatch currently used in China is an equal share approach. This form of dispatch has been criticized for its negative influence on system operations, worsening energy security, environmental sustainability and affordability problems. To contribute to on-going electricity market reform discussions, our study employs an optimization model to quantify the economic dispatch savings in the coal-fired power sector. We offer three major findings. First, the heat rates of coal generators in China in 2014 ranged from 273.91 gce/kWh to 348.38 gce/kWh units and as a result of these large differences among generators in different regions, implementing economic (merit order) dispatch will bring economic and environmental benefits. Second, we identify three major political and economic challenges, which hinder the transition from the current dispatch model, namely (i) current running hours are insufficient for cost recovery, (ii) limited cross-border trading due to electricity over-supply and local protectionism, and (iii) political economy problems from generators of different ownership types. Finally, 5.67% of coal used in power generation could be saved if economic dispatch was employed at the provincial level, the value of which equals 0.05% of Chinese GDP in 2014.
    Keywords: Economic dispatch; electricity; power markets; energy saving; China; coal; optimization model
    JEL: P28 Q48 L94 L51 L52
    Date: 2018–06–20
  3. By: Yujiao Xian; Ke Wang; Xunpeng Shi; Chi Zhang; Yi-Ming Wei; Zhimin Huang
    Abstract: This paper proposes a scenario analysis to address whether the national and provincial CO2 emissions intensity reduction target during 2016-2020 would be achievable for China¡¯s power industry with the identification of change on carbon productivity. This productivity indicator is further decomposed to investigate contributions of different sources to productivity growth when there exists technological heterogeneity. Evaluation results show that even if all electricity-generating units in each region were able to adopt the best practice, the nationwide 18% intensity reduction target is not feasible through improving technical efficiency or upgrading technology on electricity generation and carbon abatement in a short or medium term. The existence of regional technological heterogeneity in power generation and associated CO2 emissions reduction processes implies the necessity of more differentiated regulations and policies for emission reduction across China¡¯s regions and inter-regional technology transfer. The emerging national emission trading scheme could easy some challenges in formulating emission policy for heterogeneous regions.
    Keywords: Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA); Endogenous directional distance function (DDF); Meta-technology frontier; Heterogeneity; Technological gap
    JEL: Q54 Q40
    Date: 2018–07–01
  4. By: Magomedov, Rustam (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Idrisova, Vittoria (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The main purpose of the project is to study and calculation of industry in the terms of trade for Russia. The following tasks were solved: the comparison of different methodologies of the calculation of terms of trade of countries and industries was conducted; the major advantages and drawbacks of different methods were reveales; the analysis of existing theoretical approaches and the review of existing databases were conducted; the analysis of theoretical literature on the impact of tariff and non-tariff measures, subsides, productivity and exchange rate on terms of trade was conducted; the differences in terms of trade for different countries were analysed; the terms of trade for Russian manufacturing industries were calculated; the recommendations for using the results of the study were proposed. To solve these above stated problems, we used data on customs declaration.
    Date: 2018–06
  5. By: Jianhua Xu; Nanshan Ai; Yan Lu; Yong Chen; Yiying Ling; Wenze Yue
    Abstract: Domestic and foreign scholars have already done much research on regional disparity and its evolution in China, but there is a big difference in conclusions. What is the reason for this? We think it is mainly due to different analytic approaches, perspectives, spatial units, statistical indicators and different periods for studies. On the basis of previous analyses and findings, we have done some further quantitative computation and empirical study, and revealed the inter-provincial disparity and regional disparity of economic development and their evolution trends from 1952-2000. The results shows that (a) Regional disparity in economic development in China, including the inter-provincial disparity, inter-regional disparity and intra-regional disparity, has existed for years; (b) Gini coefficient and Theil coefficient have revealed a similar dynamic trend for comparative disparity in economic development between provinces in China. From 1952 to 1978, except for the "Great Leap Forward" period, comparative disparity basically assumes a upward trend and it assumed a slowly downward trend from 1979 to1990. Afterwards from 1991 to 2000 the disparity assumed a slowly upward trend again; (c) A comparison between Shanghai and Guizhou shows that absolute inter-provincial disparity has been quite big for years; and (d) The Hurst exponent (H=0.5) in the period of 1966-1978 indicates that the comparative inter-provincial disparity of economic development showed a random characteristic, and in the Hurst exponent (H>0.5) in period of 1979-2000 indicates that in this period the evolution of the comparative inter-provincial disparity of economic development in China has a long-enduring characteristic.
    Date: 2018–06
  6. By: Kuznetsov, Dmitriy (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Sedalishchev, Vladimir (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Knobel, Alexander (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The presented study considers and calculates using the most relevant data for the Russian economy the measure of Upstreamness, which reflects the average position of the industries in a representative value chain. This measure was used to demonstrate the main trends of Russian foreign trade in terms of position in global value chains. The values of Upstreamness obtained are also used to analyze the position of Russian firms in global value chains. The main conclusion of the work is that Russian enterprises tend to increase over time the number of stages of the production chain they are engaged, which contradicts the mechanisms prevailing in the literature, which indicate the desire of firms for specialization.
    Keywords: export, import, foreign trade, value chains, input-output tables, Upstreamness
    Date: 2018–06
  7. By: Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - AgroParisTech - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Hoai Son Nguyen (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - AgroParisTech - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement)
    Abstract: Access to clean and affordable energy for all is the seventh sustainable development goal. This manuscript examines the state of access to electricity for all in Vietnam, based on national households' surveys conducted in the time period 2008-2014. We find that in Vietnam, the problem of providing access to clean energy for all is largely solved for now: the fraction of households without access to electricity is below two percent, the median level of electricity usage in 2014 was 100 kWh per month per household, the fraction of households declaring unsatisfied electricity needs is below three percent. We find that electricity is becoming a heavier burden in Vietnamese households' finances. In 2010, the electricity bill exceeded 6% of income for 2.4% of households, but in 2014 that number reached 5.5% of households. In practical terms, we discuss the challenge of a socially just increase of electricity tariff, necessary to finance a clean development of energy system. Our theoretical contribution to debates on energy poverty is to account for the human dimension by using a self-reported satisfaction indicator. Our study shows that subjective energy poverty indicators –designed from surveys asking people if they had enough electricity to meet their households needs– are as relevant as objective indicators –from engineering or economic data. While objectivity is laudable, development is not only about technology and money: measuring human satisfaction matters.
    Keywords: Electricity,Vietnam,Sustainable Development Goals,Indicators
    Date: 2018–01–25
  8. By: Korishchenko, Konstantin (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Morozov, Stepan (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Bryanov, G (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The paper studies the implementation of the monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, namely, the transition from the exchange rate policy to the inflation targeting policy conducted since November 2014, and illuminates the issues of the world experience in the conduct of monetary policy by the example of central banks of foreign countries and discloses such methods of implementing monetary policy as (1) inflation targeting,(2) exchange rate regulation and (3) the targeting of money supply.
    Date: 2018–06
  9. By: Vakhshtayn, Victor (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Stepantsov, Pavel (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: This text is aimed at studying the transformation of strategies for economic behavior of the population of the Russian Federation. The main trigger that contributed to this was the economic crisis, which resulted in two general adaptation strategies. A passive strategy is to reduce expenditure while maintaining the same level of economic activity. Active strategy, on the contrary, implies a sharp increase in economic activity, but it is not usually associated with a reduction in expenditure. In the preprint, we focus on examining the differences between these behavior strategies, identifying the groups that follow them, and determining the factors that contribute to the choice of a strategy.
    Date: 2018–06
  10. By: Ponomarev, Yuriy (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The following tasks were solved in the paper: analysis and systematization of the existing theoretical and empirical approaches to assess the degree import price rigidity with respect to exchange rate fluctuations; analysis and systematization of the existing theoretical and empirical approaches to assess the degree import price rigidity with respect to importing firm characteristics; n empirical analysis and assessment of the degree of import price rigidity with respect to exchange rate fluctuations and importing firm characteristics in Russian economy. To solve these above stated problems, we used data on customs declaration and the currency data and other indicators, published by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the Federal State Statistics Service.
    Date: 2018–06
  11. By: Anto BAJO (Institute of Public Finance/ Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, Croatia); Marko PRIMORAC (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, Croatia); Martin HANICH (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, Croatia)
    Abstract: The shipbuilding industry in Croatia has a long history. Positioned on the Adriatic sea, Dalmatia has had a long tradition of maritime commerce and shipbuilding as well as other supporting activities. Over time the Croatian shipbuilding industry has been accorded different levels of strategic importance and support by the government. However, over the period from 2011 to 2015 the industry has undergone significant restructuring and faced changes to its competitive environment. Furthermore, it has received enormous levels of state support especially as Croatia prepared for the accession to the EU. The main objective of the paper is to explain the main characteristics of the processes in which the shipyards have been restructured, of the liabilities that the state has assumed pursuant to restructuring contracts and the liabilities and responsibilities that the new owners have taken on. Explained in particular will be the impact of restructuring on employment, wages, orders and the value of jobs contracted and deliveries.
    Keywords: shipbuilding, government guarantees, fiscal risks, restructuring, Croatia
    JEL: L33 L31
    Date: 2018–02
  12. By: Nicola Brandt
    Abstract: Poland’s catch up with other OECD country has been largely based on productivity growth resulting from restructuring towards more productive sectors and foreign technology absorption. The economy’s own innovation capacity is relatively weak, with low investment in research and development, no tradition of commercialising research and very limited innovation activity within firms. The government plans a higher education reform to strengthen the quality of research output, science-industry cooperation and international collaboration, which are all weak. Considerable EU funding is available to support innovation. Most of it is conditioned on science-industry co-operation, which is showing initial benefits. A lively start-up scene is gradually emerging, and the government foresees considerable public support for venture capital financing. Yet, investment in higher education and research trails behind economies that have been able to build strong science and high-tech start-up activity. Poland’s many small and medium-sized enterprises have particularly low productivity, partly related to weaknesses in vocational training and adult education, as too many workers have weak basic and digital skills. The government's education reform and digital strategy address some of these issues.
    Keywords: higher education, innovation, Poland, research and development, vocational education
    JEL: I23 O31 O32 O4
    Date: 2018–06–29
  13. By: Schönfelder, Nina; Wagner, Helmut
    Abstract: This paper applies the statistical concepts of σ-convergence and unconditional β-convergence to institutional development within several country groups hierarchized to the degree of European integration (e.g., euro area). Two sets of indicators are employed to measure institutional development: first, the Worldwide Governance Indicators, and second, the product market regulation indicator of the OECD and the Doing Business distance to frontier indicator of the World Bank. The authors can clearly confirm institutional β-convergence within the EU and its aspirants, which is mainly driven by the new Member States and acceding, candidate, and potential candidate countries. However, euro-area countries converge only in the area of product market and business regulation- not in the area of governance. In fact, the authors show evidence for β-divergence in rule of law within the first twelve euro-area members. Concerning σ-convergence, the results are less clear. Only the EU including the EU aspirants reduced the cross-country variance in all aspects of institutional development.
    Keywords: institutional convergence,governance,product market regulation,business regulation,European integration
    JEL: E02 K20 L50
    Date: 2018
  14. By: Egor A. Krivosheya (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This article evaluates the efficiency of current MIF rates for the Russian market and identifies the effects of their changes. In order to estimate the demand of end users and end-user surpluses the study uses the adopted version of the Bedre-Defolie and Calvano (2013) model as well as representative samples of 800 traditional (offline) Russian merchants, 1500 Russian individuals and 7 banks from the top 20 that cover more than 80% of the Russian issuing and acquiring markets and the end-user benefits. Results confirm the efficiency of currently set MIF rates. Comparative statics analysis confirms that the changes in MIF rates never lead to a Pareto improvement, while the total surplus changes are asymmetric across different market parts. The article also shows that once the realistic assumptions are introduced to the models (e.g., information asymmetry, imperfect pass-through of changes) the end-user welfare is distorted more severely as a result of the MIF rates changes. The first-best policy for the Russian regulator and legislators is the use of alternative (non-tariff) stimulating measures for a cashless economy in order to isolate the effect of changes to the intended groups
    Keywords: Retail payments; payment cards; interchange fees; efficiency; optimal regulation
    JEL: G21 D53 E42 L14
    Date: 2018
  15. By: Thi Huong Tran
    Abstract: Recently, along with the emergence of food scandals, food supply chains have to face with ever-increasing pressure from compliance with food quality and safety regulations and standards. This paper aims to explore critical factors of compliance risk in food supply chain with an illustrated case in Vietnamese seafood industry. To this end, this study takes advantage of both primary and secondary data sources through a comprehensive literature research of industrial and scientific papers, combined with expert interview. Findings showed that there are three main critical factor groups influencing on compliance risk including challenges originating from Vietnamese food supply chain itself, characteristics of regulation and standards, and business environment. Furthermore, author proposed enablers to eliminate compliance risks to food supply chain managers as well as recommendations to government and other influencers and supporters.
    Date: 2018–04
  16. By: Sinyagin, Yury (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Podolskiy, Dmitriy (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The work is devoted to the problems of developing mechanisms for diagnosing and evaluating the competencies of public civil servants, assessing the effectiveness of personnel work in the state civil and municipal service.
    Date: 2018–06
  17. By: Gan Jin (Department of International Economic Policy, University of Freiburg)
    Abstract: This paper studies the persistent impact of good institutions on economic development in China. By exploiting a British-driven institutional switch in part of China's customs stations in 1902, I find that counties that were more affected by the British customs institutions are also better developed today. Moreover, I show that the institutional switch was exogenous to the pre-colonial development, and I provide different estima- tion models to reveal a robust and causal relationship between good institutions and economic development.
    Keywords: Institutions, Economic development, Treaty ports, Chinese Maritime Customs Service (CMCS), China
    JEL: N15 O10 P51
    Date: 2018–07
  18. By: MOTOHASHI Kazuyuki
    Abstract: Shenzhen has become a hot spot of innovation in China. In this paper, we characterize Shenzhen innovation by comparing Beijing and Shanghai using patent and venture investment data. First, the role of university and public research institutions is small in the Shenzhen innovation system, as compared to Beijing and Shanghai. In contrast, private high-tech firms such as Huawei, ZTE, and Tencent are leading the innovation scene in Shenzhen. Second, it is found that high-tech startups are geographically concentrated in the Nanshan district, particularly Yuehai JieDao where national level high-tech zones are located. Recently, the number of startups have been increasing and local big firms such as ZTE provide human resources for such startup firms. Third, inventor disambiguated information based on patent data allows us to look at inter organizational talents moves. It is found that such moves tend to occur within short distances, such as within the same district (e.g., Nanshan district). To sum up, Shenzhen has truly become a hot spot of high-tech entrepreneurship and innovation, however, the dynamics are very much regionally bounded. Therefore, it is important to become a local player in order to take advantage of innovation movements in Shenzhen, by means of minority investment by corporate venture capital (CVC) into local startup firms.
    Date: 2018–05
  19. By: Aganbegyan, Abel (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Kleeva, Lyudmila (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Krotova, Nadezhda (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The paper analyzes the features of Russia's social and economic development in recent decades. Assessing the quality of economic growth in Russia, identifying its main sources, as well as the reasons that hamper socio-economic development, have made it possible to identify key opportunities for activating and improving the quality of economic growth by stimulating the development of human capital.
    Date: 2018–06
  20. By: Joel Cariolle (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International)
    Abstract: This paper reexamines the contribution of five major corruption determinants emphasized by the literature, through an empirical analysis based on a hierarchical modelling of firm-level corruption data. Exploiting a baseline sample of 34,358 bribe reports of firms from 71 developing and transition countries, I use a three-level estimation framework to study the contribution of the economic and human development levels, the size of governments, trade openness, and democracy. Multi-level estimations stress that the negative effect of income per capita on bribery is found to be mostly driven by improvement in human capital, more particularly by the decline in fertility rates. They also allow the reconciling of some contrasting findings of the literature on other corruption determinants, but point that the contribution of corruption determinants is context-dependent.
    Keywords: Corruption,Bribery,Firm,multi-level model,Hierarchical models
    Date: 2018–06–25

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