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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Peter Havlik (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Gabor Hunya (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Yury Zaytsev |
| Abstract: | Foreign direct investment (FDI) has been the main driver of restructuring and modernisation in Central and Eastern Europe. This paper looks into FDI stocks and flows in a dynamic and cross-country perspective, comparing the key EAEU countries (Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia) as well as DCFTA countries (Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine) with selected EU-CEE peers (Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia) in the neighbourhood. The study shows that EAEU and DCFTA countries have not been particularly attractive for foreign investors taking out round tripping inflows from offshore destinations, the accumulated FDI would be even lower. This explains a lot why restructuring in the region stalls. This pattern can change only with marked improvements in the domestic regulatory environment and investment climate. |
| Keywords: | foreign direct investment, FDI flows and stocks, Eastern Europe, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, FDI by key partners and sectors |
| JEL: | C82 F13 F14 O57 P23 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:rpaper:rr:428&r=tra |
| By: | Arina Sapova (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Aleksey Porshakov (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Andrey Andreev (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Evgenia Shatilo (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation) |
| Keywords: | consumer price index, inflation, seasonality, seasonal adjustment, aggregate index, consumer price dynamics . |
| JEL: | C18 C43 E31 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bkr:wpaper:wps33&r=tra |
| By: | McGarry, Kathleen (Asian Development Bank Institute); Sun, Xiaoting (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | The phenomenon of son preference in the People’s Republic of China and throughout much of Asia has been well documented. However, changing economic conditions, such as increases in educational attainment and employment opportunities for women and the rise in the prevalence of one-child families, have likely changed the incentives for parents to invest in daughters. We take advantage of data spanning three generations of Chinese families to examine the evolution of educational attainment for boys and girls and importantly the relative levels of schooling of each gender. We also use variation in the timing of compulsory schooling laws and the implementation of the one-child policy to assess the effect of these policy measures on the relative educational levels. We find a substantial narrowing of the gap between the schooling of boys and girls, so much so that girls now have more schooling on average than boys. In addition, public policy initiatives had a larger effect in rural than urban areas. |
| Keywords: | compulsory schooling; one-child policy; gender differences in education |
| JEL: | I20 J13 J16 |
| Date: | 2018–04–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0834&r=tra |
| By: | Pham, Tuan; Tran, Thi Ha |
| Abstract: | Using both aggregate and disaggregate data, the purpose of this study was to examine the effects of VND/CNY exchange rate (including exchange rate level and volatility) on trade flows between Vietnam and China. For this analysis, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is applied. In the disaggregate models, long-run results indicate that 9 import commodities (approximately 28.67% of total import value) are sensitive to real exchange rate level, and 9 export commodities (approximately 39,146% of total export value) also respond to changes in exchange rate level. Most of unaffected commodities are raw, intermediate, and simply processed products (the biggest component in total import volume). In addition, the study found that export commodities are more sensitive to exchange rate volatility than import commodities. Notably, the results of aggregate model indicate that there is no statistical evidence of any linkage between exchange rate and trade (export and import). In other words, exchange rate is likely to be ineffective to improve trade balance between Vietnam and China. This is noticeable signal in term of effective coordination between the monetary and trade policy of Vietnam |
| Keywords: | Vietnam, China, Exchange Rate, Import, Export, ARDL |
| JEL: | E3 E4 E5 E6 F1 F4 |
| Date: | 2018–06–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:87457&r=tra |
| By: | Zhang, Xun (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | We make an early attempt to analyze the comprehensive relationship between public educational expenditure and structural change, which is often measured by labor transfer from agricultural sector to industrial sector in developing economies. We construct a two-sector general equilibrium model, showing that in the short term, public educational expenditure mainly acts to crowd out industrial capital accumulation and thus temporarily hinders structural change, while there is an inverted-U relationship between them in the long run, as public educational expenditure helps reduce educational cost of rural residents permanently. The hukou system of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) provides appropriate data to empirically identify this comprehensive relationship. The empirical evidence confirms the theoretical interpretations when we control for confounding factors, take endogeneity of public educational expenditure into account, and investigate the mechanisms behind the relationship. The PRC’s current level of public educational expenditure is still far from its optimal value, as indicated by the inverted-U relationship with structural change, suggesting that the PRC should increase spending on public education, especially for rural residents. |
| Keywords: | public educational expenditure; structural change; crowding-out effect; human capital; People’s Republic of China |
| JEL: | I28 O11 O15 |
| Date: | 2018–04–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0831&r=tra |
| By: | Tobin, Damian (Asian Development Bank Institute); Volz, Ulrich (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | We look at the development and transformation of the People’s Republic of China (PRC)’s financial system since the start of economic and financial reforms in 1978. We describe how despite the rapid development of capital markets since the 1990s, the PRC’s financial system continues to be dominated by bank lending. Reforms have not eliminated the credit expansion impetus of large commercial banks, while the effectiveness of capital-based constraints and administrative measures is far below potential. Large state-owned banks have become important players in bond and equity markets, as well as important sources of liquidity provision for smaller commercial banks and a range of non-bank financial institutions through a combination of inter-bank funding activities, wealth management products, and shadow banking/grey capital market activities. The importance of non-bank financial institutions has also continued to grow. Off-shore markets have increased the overseas holdings of financial assets, but their potential remains limited by capital controls and the fragility of the domestic financial system. An unintended consequence of this is that although the PRC’s state run financial system has become more complex and more interconnected domestically, foreign participation remains low. |
| Keywords: | China; financial markets; financial institutions; economic transformation |
| JEL: | G01 G02 O16 P34 |
| Date: | 2018–03–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0825&r=tra |
| By: | Huang, Bihong (Asian Development Bank Institute); Shaban, Mohamed (Asian Development Bank Institute); Song, Quanyun (Asian Development Bank Institute); Wu, Yu (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | We utilize an e-commerce development indicator in tandem with big data to measure the variations of e-commerce development across counties in the People’s Republic of China and assess its impact on entrepreneurship in both rural and urban areas. We find that households living in counties with higher levels of e-commerce development are more likely to run their own businesses. Further study indicates that e-commerce development not only significantly increases the entry of new startups but also decreases the exit of incumbent businesses. We also find that e-commerce development induces sectoral change of household entrepreneurship. It promotes entrepreneurship in the manufacturing and wholesale sectors, but reduces the entrepreneurship in the retail, hotel, and catering sectors. We also show that e-commerce prosperity fuels entrepreneurship by alleviating the financial constraints and moderates the reliance of household entrepreneurship on social networks. |
| Keywords: | e-commerce development; big data; entrepreneurship |
| JEL: | L81 |
| Date: | 2018–03–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0827&r=tra |
| By: | Paul, Saumik (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | Using a novel data set, this paper find that households with migrants experience a 26% drop in the labor force participation rate in four economies (Armenia, Azerbaijan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan) from the Central Asia and South Caucasus region. It is twice as large for households with permanent migrants as for households with seasonal migrants. The results do not alter in the presence of selection on unobservables, model misspecification, and selection bias due to the absence of more productive workers. Direct evidence on the remittances that each household received is not available. The empirical findings do, however, suggest the possibility of an increase in reservation wages. |
| Keywords: | emigration; labor mobility |
| JEL: | F22 J61 |
| Date: | 2018–03–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0822&r=tra |
| By: | Kun Jiang; Wolfgang Keller; Larry D. Qiu; William Ridley |
| Abstract: | This paper studies international joint ventures, where foreign direct investment is performed by a foreign and a domestic firm that together set up a new firm, the joint venture. Employing administrative data on all international joint ventures in China from 1998 to 2007—roughly a quarter of all international joint ventures in the world—we find, first, that Chinese firms chosen to be partners of foreign investors tend to be larger, more productive, and more likely subsidized than other Chinese firms. Second, there is substantial international technology transfer not only to the joint venture itself but also to the Chinese joint venture partner firm. Third, with technology spillovers typically outweighing negative competition effects, joint ventures generate net positive externalities to other Chinese firms in the same industry. Joint venture externalities are large, perhaps twice the size of wholly-owned FDI spillovers, and it is R&D-intensive firms, including the joint ventures themselves, that benefit most from these externalities. Furthermore, the positive external joint venture effect is larger if the foreign firm is from the U.S. rather than from Japan or Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan, while this effect is virtually absent in broad sectors that include economic activities for which China’s FDI policy has prohibited joint ventures. |
| Keywords: | international joint ventures, partner selection, technology spillovers, foreign direct investment, competition effects |
| JEL: | F14 F23 O34 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7065&r=tra |
| By: | Balandina, Galina (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Ponomarev, Yuriy (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Sinelnikov-Murylev, Sergei G. (Russian Foreign Trade Academy; Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Tochin, Andrey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | Modern customs administration in Russia in comparison with the best world practices provides insufficient efficiency both for the state and for participants in foreign economic activity. The level of unreliable declaring by the business or importing goods into the country bypassing the established rules remains high. This leads to such negative consequences as unfair competition, evasion from payment of internal taxes, escalation of shadow turnover. The discretionary powers of customs authorities and their officials with existing control technologies (the multiplicity of supervisory bodies and the lack of necessary interaction between them) create conditions for administrative pressure on the business that promotes corruption. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:061833&r=tra |
| By: | Cao, Xiaping (Asian Development Bank Institute); Huang, Bihong (Asian Development Bank Institute); Lai, Rose Neng (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | To deal with the rampant increase in housing prices, the Government of the PRC implemented the home purchase restriction (HPR) policy to curb speculation and prevent housing bubbles. This policy triggered an exogenous demand shock to the housing market. Employing a two-step difference-in-differences approach, we find significantly negative policy effects on property transaction volume but a small impact on housing prices. Cities that rely heavily on land sales for fiscal revenue experience a considerably higher increase in property investments after implementing the HPR policy. |
| Keywords: | home purchase restriction policy; demand shock; housing bubble; land financing |
| JEL: | G12 G18 H83 |
| Date: | 2018–03–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0824&r=tra |
| By: | Yingli Wang; Xiaoguang Yang |
| Abstract: | Considered an important macroeconomic indicator, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) on Manufacturing generally assumes that PMI announcements will produce an impact on stock markets. International experience suggests that stock markets react to negative PMI news. In this research, we empirically investigate the stock market reaction towards PMI in China. The asymmetric effects of PMI announcements on the stock market are observed: no market reaction is generated towards negative PMI announcements, while a positive reaction is generally generated for positive PMI news. We further find that the positive reaction towards the positive PMI news occurs 1 day before the announcement and lasts for nearly 3 days, and the positive reaction is observed in the context of expanding economic conditions. By contrast, the negative reaction towards negative PMI news is prevalent during downward economic conditions for stocks with low market value, low institutional shareholding ratios or high price earnings. Our study implies that China's stock market favors risk to a certain extent given the vast number of individual investors in the country, and there may exist information leakage in the market. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1806.04347&r=tra |
| By: | Bruni, Michele |
| Abstract: | China still lags behind Europe along the path of the demographic transition and therefore is still much younger. However, due to the speed with which the fertility rate dropped and life expectancy increased, China ageing process will proceed at a very fast space and around the middle of the century the population of China is projected to be as old as that of France and the UK and older than that of the USA. The paper tries to evaluate the labour market and welfare implications of this process, also by an economic indicator of dependency and socioeconomic burden. |
| Keywords: | Ageing,China,EU,dependency indicators,technological change,migrations |
| JEL: | J11 J14 J21 F22 O33 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:222&r=tra |
| By: | Kunze, Frederik; Basse, Tobias; Wegener, Christoph; Spiwoks, Markus |
| Abstract: | We investigate RMB pricing differentials for onshore and offshore trading. Testing for long memory, we find strong persistence in the pricing differential. Hence, the Chinese FX market in its bipolar structure still lacks basic conditions for perfectly integrated markets. |
| Keywords: | CNY,CNH,RMB internationalization,Market integration,Emerging markets |
| JEL: | F31 F33 G18 C58 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cegedp:348&r=tra |
| By: | John Gibson (University of Waikato); Trinh Le (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research) |
| Abstract: | Most developing countries lack spatially disaggregated price data, despite the importance of spatial transactions costs in these settings. We experimented in Vietnam with a new way of obtaining disaggregated price data, using local expert knowledge to derive the mean and variance for prices of 64 items in over 1000 communities. We use these prices to calculate regional cost-of-living indexes. These provide a better approximation to benchmark multilateral price indexes calculated from traditional market price surveys than do two no-price methods, based on using food Engel curves to derive deflators and based on unit values (survey group expenditure over group quantity). |
| Keywords: | expert knowledge; inequality; prices; regional cost-of-living |
| JEL: | D12 E31 O15 |
| Date: | 2018–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wai:econwp:18/08&r=tra |
| By: | Jing Cai; Adam Szeidl |
| Abstract: | We organized business associations for the owner-managers of young Chinese firms to study the effect of business networks on firm performance. We randomized 2,820 firms into small groups whose managers held monthly meetings for one year, and into a “no-meetings” control group. We find that: (1) The meetings increased firm revenue by 8.1 percent, and also significantly increased profit, factors, inputs, the number of partners, borrowing, and a management score; (2) These effects persisted one year after the conclusion of the meetings; and (3) Firms randomized to have better peers exhibited higher growth. We exploit additional interventions to document concrete channels. (4) Managers shared exogenous business-relevant information, particularly when they were not competitors, showing that the meetings facilitated learning from peers. (5) Managers created more business partnerships in the regular than in other one-time meetings, showing that the meetings improved supplier-client matching. |
| Date: | 2017–11–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ceu:econwp:2018_3&r=tra |
| By: | Anna Kokareva (Russian relations coordinator); Evgeniy Kutsenko (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Ekaterina Islankina (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Innovation infrastructure plays a crucial role in the establishment of links among knowledge producers, intermediaries, and exploiters to deal with socio-economic challenges. Traditionally, the representatives of public sector, business and academia have been considered as the key stakeholders; however today there is a shift of interest towards end users or consumers of products and services. Users, especially citizens, are able to bring new insights of their experience while taking part in testing and validation of innovative products and / or services. Hence, it is essential to decide, which forms of innovation infrastructure units enable successful involvement of users into the design and innovation process. Since mid-2000, the European Union has successfully introduced a platform for testing and experimentation based on the users’ engagement – a living laboratory. The study investigates the features of living labs, including their possible business applications, and searching for the living labs’ analogous among the existing forms of innovation infrastructure units in Russia. Business Model Canvas and comparative analysis are employed to do the research. Taken together, our results support the idea that a living lab is a very special form of innovation infrastructure unit, since it brings a product, technology, or service closer to the market, based on the insights from the end users’ engagement in testing and experimentation |
| Keywords: | living laboratory, innovation infrastructure, cluster, user’s innovations, Business Model Canvas |
| JEL: | O31 O32 R58 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:81sti2018&r=tra |
| By: | Yingli Wang; Xiangyin Chen; Xiaoguang Yang; Qingpeng Zhang |
| Abstract: | In this study, we investigate the evolution of Chinese guarantee networks from the angle of sub-patterns. First, we find that the mutual, 2-out-stars and triangle sub-patterns are motifs in 2- and 3-node subgraphs. Considering the heterogeneous financial characteristics of nodes, we find that small firms tend to form a mutual guarantee relationship and large firms are likely to be the guarantors in 2-out-stars sub-patterns. Furthermore, we conduct a dynamic study on 15 sub-patterns, which consist of 2- and 3-node sub-patterns, and find that the subgraphs are highly influenced by the 2008 financial crisis and Chinese stimulus program. More concretely, during the financial crisis, the mutual guarantee relationship decreases, due to the bankruptcy of small firms. Additionally, local interconnection (mutual and triangle sub-patterns) is established with the significant increase in the initiation of the stimulus program. Another important study we conduct is the discovery of functionally important sub-patterns. On the one hand, mutual and some triangle sub-patterns (containing mutual guarantee) are risky patterns with high default probability. However, cyclic triads and fully connected 3-node sub-patterns are most stable in the default process due to the peer monitoring between firms. On the other hand, sub-patterns of edge and 2-out-stars are with lowest contagion capability. Our functional sub-patterns could shed light on the optimal structure design of guarantee networks to reduce the default and contagion probability. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1806.04351&r=tra |
| By: | Monika Banaszewska (Poznan University of Economics and Business); Ivo Bischoff (University of Kassel) |
| Abstract: | We want to find out whether grants-in-aid help the recipient government to get re-elected. We take Poland as our testing ground and analyze the impact of EU funds spent within a municipality on mayoral elections in 2010 and 2014. We employ an instrumental variables approach to account for the endogeneity of EU funds. Our results show that EU funds do not generally increase the mayors’ chance of reelection. This result holds for total EU funds spent as well as for funds spent on investments. We test whether the impact of EU funds is moderated by municipal characteristics. We find no effect for the economic or fiscal situation of municipalities, a positive but economically negligible effect for human capital endowment and a substantial effect for the share of pro-European citizens. Spending EU funds increases incumbent mayors’ chance of re-election in municipalities with a large share pro-EU citizens and reduces it in municipalities dominated by EU sceptics. |
| Keywords: | grants-in-aid, EU, Poland, local elections, instrumental variable regressions |
| JEL: | D72 H77 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:201822&r=tra |
| By: | James Browne (OECD); Herwig Immervoll (OECD); Rodrigo Fernandez (OECD); Dirk Neumann (OECD); Daniele Pacifico (OECD); Céline Thévenot (OECD) |
| Abstract: | In the aftermath of the financial and economic crisis, large shares of working-age individuals in Estonia either did not work or only to a limited extent. By 2013, several years after the start of the labour-market recovery, 18% were still without employment during the entire year, and a further 13% had weak labour-market attachment, working only a fraction of the year, or on restricted working hours. This paper applies a novel method for measuring and visualising employment barriers of individuals with no or weak labour-market attachment, using household micro-data. It first develops indicators to quantify employment obstacles under three broad headings: (i) work-related capabilities, (ii) incentives, and (iii) employment opportunities. It then uses these indicators in conjunction with a statistical clustering approach to identify unobserved (“latent”) groups of individuals facing similar combinations of barriers. The resulting typology of labour-market difficulties provides insights on the most pressing policy priorities in supporting different groups into employment. A detailed policy discussion illustrates how the empirical results can inform people-centred assessments of existing labour-market integration measures and of key challenges across different policy areas and institutions. The most common employment obstacles in Estonia were low skill levels, health limitations and limited work experience. Financial disincentives, care responsibilities and scarce job opportunities were less widespread overall, although important barriers for some groups. A notable finding is that almost one third of jobless or low-intensity workers face three or more simultaneous barriers, highlighting the limits of narrow policy approaches that focus on subsets of these employment obstacles in isolation. |
| JEL: | C38 H31 J2 J6 J8 |
| Date: | 2018–06–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:elsaab:206-en&r=tra |
| By: | Nurbekyan, Armen (Asian Development Bank Institute); Hovanessian, Naneh (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | Financial inclusion has significantly advanced in Armenia during the last decade. Rural and urban areas, however, have benefited unevenly. The high cost of providing financial services, the lack of physical infrastructure, higher poverty rates, and the low level of financial literacy are the main barriers to financial inclusion in the rural areas. The availability of, and the high level of trust in, postal services in all villages, along with innovative technologies, should be exploited to address the inadequate physical infrastructure. Insurance services, in particular health and agriculture insurance, have a high growth potential. Mandatory health insurance along with an e-health infrastructure can boost high-quality financial inclusion. Targeted financial education policies addressing the most vulnerable groups, in particular the rural population and the unemployed, will significantly increase the quality of financial inclusion. Addressing data gaps, especially in the small and medium-sized enterprises sector, should be a priority for policy makers. Overall, a clear separation of strategies for financial inclusion from the National Strategy for Financial Education clarifying quantitative goals and policies will be beneficial. |
| Keywords: | financial inclusion; financial literacy; regulation; Armenia |
| JEL: | G21 G28 I22 O16 |
| Date: | 2018–05–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0843&r=tra |