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on Transition Economics |
| By: | László Bruszt; Nauro F. Campos |
| Abstract: | We study whether and how economic integration increases state capacity. Despite the recent surge in economist’s interest in state capacity, there remains a lack of theory-based detailed empirical measures. This paper introduces a new panel of institutional reform measures. We present a political economy framework highlighting the Montesquieu, Weber and Smith channels and yielding hypotheses about the judiciary, bureaucracy, and competition policy. Our main finding is that the relationship between bureaucratic independence and judiciary capacity seems to be the main engine of the process of state capacity building engendered by the prospect of European Union membership. |
| Keywords: | state capacity, institutions, deep integration. |
| JEL: | D72 D78 H23 P11 P16 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2017/52&r=tra |
| By: | MENG Jianjun |
| Abstract: | It is no exaggeration to say that a resumption of university entrance exams in 1977 and a subsequent decision regarding a government-sponsored study abroad program ushered in the period of reform and opening up in China. This paper is a comprehensive analysis of the process through which China established its study abroad policies, as well as the impact of such policies. Study abroad policies, designed to support a nation's economic development and innovation, are significant for that country since they are also regarded as a strategy for securing human resources. However, China's study abroad policies went through constant trial and error for the past 40 years amid institutional dilemmas. The nation also had a brain drain problem for a prolonged period of time because many students who had been sent overseas failed to return. The government therefore strengthened its measures to promote their return as the nation moved toward a free market economy. The result was "brain circulation," which has been making important contributions to China's scientific technology and innovation and so on in recent years. This paper looked back on the changes in China's study abroad policies to examine the government's policy intentions, as it rebuilds a strategy for securing human resources. More specifically, this study examined the background of study abroad policies following the reform and opening-up initiatives and the factors that led to the formulation of such polices. Furthermore, this paper investigated the establishment of a human resource recruitment system through which the government sought to produce a synergistic effect with innovation by implementing, through trial and error, its study abroad policies and measures to promote the return of students. |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rdpsjp:18016&r=tra |
| By: | László Koloszár (University of Sopron Alexandre Lamfalussy Faculty of Economics) |
| Abstract: | A strong economy does not exist without an internationally competitive SME sector. But the resources of the SME sector and its management skills are often also limited. By developing this skills, the limited resources available can be utilized more efficiently, so the competitiveness of the companies could be improved.The lean approach as an attitude, common sense, does not require excessive resources, so they can be useful in the SME sector.This study analyses, how deeply the lean thinking are present in some division of the Hungarian SME sector, and make some comparisons between the divisions. A structured questionnaire was used for data collection. SMEs? representatives, mostly CEOs and managers from some divisions of the Hungarian manufacturing industry participated in the survey.Out of the results it shows that the level of the lean usage is low among the Hungarian SMEs, so there are development reserves in the usage of lean practices. Strengthening thinking in processes beyond the factory, employee involvement and related leadership development can lead to efficiency gains, but it is important to note that without external experts a wider improvement is not expected. This requires a change of leadership, and state incentives are needed to accelerate thisThe background of the research method was created to fit the available literature so that to be able to be used in other countries. With that, the available information basis can be expanded with a regional dimension, in case further studies are made. |
| Keywords: | SMEs, Lean thinking, Lean practices, Hungarian SMEs |
| JEL: | M11 M10 M00 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:7508665&r=tra |
| By: | Maleva, Tatiana (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Zubarevich, Natalia (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Lyashok, Victor (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Lopatina, Marina (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | In the work, the main focus of the research is aimed at analyzing the impact of crises on the labor market, rather than on the upswings, because the dynamics of the labor market during the crisis and recovery are significantly different. The recession in the economy is usually sharper and faster and leads to a decline in demand for labor and through this and other characteristics of the labor market. During the economic recovery, the dynamics of the main characteristics of the labor market are determined by general structural changes in both demand and labor supply. |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:041823&r=tra |
| By: | Vasylyeva, Anna (University College Maastricht, Maastricht University); Merkle, Ortrun (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University) |
| Abstract: | Corruption is a widespread phenomenon at Ukrainian higher education institutions (HEIs), with more than a quarter of students reporting participation in corrupt activities. This paper explores the dominant forms of corruption in Ukrainian public universities and proposes ways to combat corruption at the HEI level. For this, we analyse data from national authorities and civil society on corruption in the education sector. A subsequent corruption mapping identifies three of the most common corruption schemes: entrance examinations, grade attainment throughout university education, as well as administrative corruption. The paper closes with a set of policy recommendations to a) collect more data and conduct further research; b) increase transparency in the Ukrainian HEIs; c) conduct information campaigns and encourage participation of the civil society; d) increase oversight of HEIs; e) create a better reward and punishment mechanism system for HEI employees; f) standardise exams in the written form; and g) encourage academic freedom. |
| Keywords: | corruption, higher education, universities, Ukraine |
| JEL: | D73 I23 |
| Date: | 2018–05–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2018021&r=tra |
| By: | Maleva, Tatiana (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Zubarevich, Natalya (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Lyashok, Victor (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Lopatina, Marina (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | In the work, the main focus of the research is aimed at analyzing the impact of crises on the labor market, rather than on the upswings, because the dynamics of the labor market during the crisis and recovery are significantly different. The recession in the economy is usually sharper and faster and leads to a decline in demand for labor and through this and other characteristics of the labor market. During the economic recovery, the dynamics of the main characteristics of the labor market are determined by general structural changes in both demand and labor supply. |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:041831&r=tra |
| By: | Levashenko, Antonina (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Ermokhin, Ivan (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The paper presents a study of OECD standards and best practices of OECD countries on selected social, economic, environmental and other issues. Proposals have been made for Russia to improve national legislation, fill gaps in government programs, develop international cooperation in priority areas, and also address tasks set in the framework of priority projects. |
| Keywords: | OECD, reform of supervisory activities, mortgage and rental housing, urban environment, international cooperation and and exports |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:041826&r=tra |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Uzbekistan has initiated far-reaching reforms to tackle the country’s most pressing economic and social challenges, foremost the lack of jobs. The reforms aim at opening and liberalizing Uzbekistan’s segmented economy, where state sector and connected businesses have enjoyed preferential access to real and financial resources while being sheltered from domestic and external competition. |
| Date: | 2018–05–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:18/117&r=tra |
| By: | Pakhomov, Alexander (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Makarov, Andrei (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Bagdasaryan, Kniaz (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | In this review is analyzed the current economic and integration processes in ASEAN member States in the context of opportunities and constraints for the implementation of the future foreign economic policy of Russia in the South-East Asia region. Currently most of the countries of the Association belong to the dynamic developing countries in the world that have significant natural and economic potential and large market, and also form a common economic space within the framework of the grouping and are reaching a new level of integration with major foreign partners. Besides one of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) member states priority is the establishment of preferential relations with third party countries at the present stage. It is noticeable that EAEU approached some positive tendency with the Association of South-East Asian Nations in recent years. |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:041832&r=tra |
| By: | Makaretseva, Alla (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Khasanova, Ramilya (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | Over the past 16 years, Russia has experienced the following trends in the process of mortality. The life expectancy of the Russian population is growing, but the growth rate is low. For 2000-2016 the life expectancy of the population increased by 6.6 years (by 4.8 years for women, 7.5 years for men) and was 71.9 years (men - 66.5 years, women - 77 years ), it is still 6 years lower than the average in developed countries. The gap in life expectancy between men and women in Russia still remains one of the highest in the world, and by 2016 is 10.5 years (in 2000 - 13 years). There is still a high regional differentiation of life expectancy: 16 years - between the highest and the lowest regional level of life expectancy in 2016. For 2000-2016, the infant mortality rate decreased by 60% (from 15.3 per mille to 6), but the relative lag of Russia from other developed countries remains. Similarly, infant mortality in Russia is characterized by a large gap in the indicators of rural and urban areas and significant regional differentiation. Mortality of the working-age population declines slowly and remains very high in comparison with Western countries. Today the question of finding ways to equalize the levels of demographic and socio-economic development of regions and create prerequisites for stabilizing the demographic situation in Russia as a whole and in regions where a steady decline in population is observed today is urgent. |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:041830&r=tra |
| By: | Nicoleta-Elena Buzatu (Dimitrie Cantemir Christian University) |
| Abstract: | The study below is meant to focus on the migrant smuggling crime in Romania, in specially analysis of the migrant smuggling infraction provided in the Romanian Criminal Code. Being a component of the human trafficking activity, the illegal migration is a phenomenon that is continuously extending and harder to stop due to the involvement of the organized crime networks and also due the ingenuousness and maliciousness of the people and the criminals. Therewith, the migrant smuggling is highly connected with drug trafficking, terrorism etc., aspects that are connected with the organized crime. Legally, there are many differences between the source states, the transit states or the destination states, that is slowing the fight of the states for combating this scourge. During this fight of preventing and stopping the illegal migrant smuggling, the states that are involved aligned their own legal frame to the international one in the activity field, by elaborating and promoting the regulatory acts that have been putting the responsibility on the governmental and non-governmental institution in this activity field. |
| Keywords: | migrant, illegal migration, crime, organized crime, Romanian Criminal Code |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:tpaper:017&r=tra |
| By: | Petr Musil (University of Economics in Prague); Michaela Jirková (University of Economics in Prague) |
| Abstract: | The economic and financial situation of persons depends on the size and structure of their household. The level of the economies of scale of living together is reflected in an equivalence scale. This scale of consumption units assigns to each individual household member the specific weight according to defined rules. In this time the scales for all European country are applied. OECD uses the OECD scale while Eurostat uses the OECD-modified equivalence scale. It allows the international comparison of income and consumption level of households across all states. However, this commonly used scales may not be suitable for all countries, because they do not reflect any country specific economic conditions. Economies of scales are highly dependent on the structure of household consumption and expenditures which varies significantly across countries. Therefore, the need of national equivalence scales appropriate for each country is observed.The aim of this contribution is to compare the international scales with the equivalence scales estimated within our research. These scales are suitable for the Czech Republic as they take into account the economies of scale realized by Czech households. Two alternative approaches have been applied: an expenditure equation and utility function. The first one uses household budget survey data (HBS), the second approach is based on survey on income and living conditions (SILC). It has been proved that estimated equivalence scales differ to international ones. Subsequently, the impact in income and poverty indicators has been assessed. Overall effect on poverty indicators is not big, however a significant impact on specific group of people is observed. Mainly influenced groups are children and pensioners.The national scales affect the countries differently, especially in comparison of specific groups of by their social status. The second approach allows also international comparison as SILC is harmonized in Europe. The different impact of equivalence scales across European states is provided. |
| Keywords: | consumption units, equivalence scale, household expenditures, utility function, economies of scale |
| JEL: | D12 D31 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:7508411&r=tra |
| By: | Maruev, Aleksey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The fundamental advantage of Russia in all historical epochs is its considerable territorial extent, which provides unique transport opportunities. Moreover, the geographical location of Russia allows for the transfer of transport flows both along the Southern Transport Corridor from the Far Eastern regions bordering China to the western ones, providing access to the West European market, and through the Northern - via the Northern Sea Route. However, the realities of the geoeconomic situation show that the current program documents of the federal and regional levels of the Russian Federation do not fully take into account the challenges and threats accompanying the development of the Russian segment of cross-border and transcontinental projects that ensure Russia's integrated interaction with the countries of the Asia-Pacific region, the sphere of transboundary transport corridors in the Far East and in the Arctic zone of Russia can not be provided. The creation of the basic transport infrastructure of the Russian Arctic and the Far East, the maritime and continental components of their security, requires an holistic system for ensuring the integrated security of transport communications in these regions. |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:041833&r=tra |
| By: | Tamara ?maguc (Faculty of Organization and Informatics, University of Zagreb); Ksenija Vukovi? (Faculty of Organization and Informatics, University of Zagreb) |
| Abstract: | The promise of entrepreneurial zones development in Northern Croatia has been huge. In the last decade 282,2 million kuna has been invested on the area of Vara?din and Me?imurje county in the Republic of Croatia and the result has been activation of 52 zones financed from public sources and generation of 14,4 thousand working vacancies (Republic of Croatia, Ministry of Entrepreneurship and Crafts, 2015). Despite certain employment capacity there is still a large number of non-active or half-filled entrepreneurial zones that are a reason for suspicion in cost effectiveness of these investments. In this paper investment efficiency of local self-government units (municipalities and towns) on the area of Vara?din and Me?imurje county in the Republic of Croatia has been assessed by using data envelopment analysis. The analysis has been conducted by using CCR and BCC model oriented on outputs. Concretely, the results of the conducted analysis are valuable due to the fact that political management of towns and municipalities ? that has been non-efficient investor in entrepreneurial zones ? is given information on necessary changes and their extent and also on good practice examples from neighbour towns and municipalities. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurial zones, relative efficiency assessment, data envelopment analysis, Vara?din county, Me?imurje county |
| JEL: | L26 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:7508474&r=tra |
| By: | Badi Baltagi (Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University, 426 Eggers Hall, Syracuse, NY 13244); Peter H. Egger (ETH Zurich, CEPR, CESifo, GEP); Michaela Kesina (ETH Zurich) |
| Abstract: | Whether a firm is able to attract foreign capital and whether it may participate at the export market depends on whether the fixed costs associated with doing so are at least covered by the incremental operating profits. This paper provides evidence that success for some firms in attracting foreign investors and in exporting appears to reduce the associated fixed costs with exporting or foreign ownership in other firms. Using data on 8,959 firms located in Shanghai, we find that contagion and spillovers in exporting and in foreign ownership decisions within an area of 10 miles in the city of Shanghai amplify fixed-cost reductions for both exporting as well as foreign ownership of neighboring firms. Contagion among exporters and among foreign-owned firms, respectively, amplify shocks to the profitability of these activities to a large extent. These findings are established through the estimation of a spatial bivariate probit model. |
| Keywords: | Firm-Level Exports, Firm-Level Foreign Ownership, Contagion, Spatial Econometrics, Chinese Firms |
| JEL: | C11 C31 C35 F14 F23 L22 R10 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:max:cprwps:211&r=tra |
| By: | Alicia García-Herrero; Jianwei Xu |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews international measures of the digital economy and compares them with those developed by Chinese officials and private sources. Given the lack of comparability, we use China’s input and output and census data to come up with an internationally comparable estimate of the size of China’s information and communication technology (ICT) sector (the core of digital economy), in terms of both value added and employment. Based on the latest available statistics, our measurements indicate that China’s digital economy is not bigger relative to the size of the Chinese economy than the OECD average, especially in terms of ICT employment. This finding, which might look striking based on the current perception of China’s digital economy, masks large differences across regions (with Beijing, Guangdong and Shanghai ahead of the OECD average). |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bre:wpaper:25724&r=tra |
| By: | Romina Beqiri (European University of Tirana) |
| Abstract: | In spite of the abundant information regarding Albania’s struggle from transition towards the integration into the European Union, envisioning common international justice affairs still remains insufficient and it seems that any close connection to the international criminal courts and tribunals has been largely ignored. This paper gives a picture of the alleged ‘internationalisation’ of the witness protection legislation and touches two aspects: firstly, the issues of the current legal framework in relation to procedural and non-procedural witness protective measures and challenges to ensure their effectiveness and secondly, the incorporation of new provisions in the domestic laws related to the best practices on support and assistance for witnesses at international and regional levels. In order to comprehend Albania’s compliance with the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court and other European legal instruments, an analysis of official documents was carried out, and a range of interviews were performed with staff of the International Criminal Court, the Courts of Serious Crimes and a District Court in Albania. This study draws conclusions and develops a set of recommendations on the steps that Albania has to take in relation to providing adequate protection and assistance in support of witnesses testifying in serious crimes cases. |
| Keywords: | witness protective measures, international criminal court, judicial effectiveness and efficiency, process of familiarization |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:fpaper:008&r=tra |
| By: | Deng, Quheng; Ma, Xinxin |
| Abstract: | Utilizing the rotating panel data based on the Urban Household Surveys from 2002 to 2007 conducted by National Bureau of Statistics of China , this study investigates the dynamics of informal employment in urban China. It is found that the proportion of informal employment to the total employment increases continuously from 2002 to 2007. Transition rates between the informal and formal employment status indicate the probability of persistence in the informal employment is great. To consider that there may exists spurious state dependence which may overestimate the persistence in informal employment, this study utilizes the random-effects dynamic probit models to address the unobserved heterogeneity problem, and deals with the initial condition problem and the serial correlation of transitory shocks. Based on these regression results, this study disentangles the genuine from spurious state dependence. It is found that the genuine state dependence accounts for the majority of the persistence in informal employment. Genuine state dependence patterns for various subgroups are also examined. |
| Keywords: | dynamics, informal employment, persistence, spurious state dependence, genuine state dependence |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hitcei:2018-3&r=tra |
| By: | Korishchenko, Konstantin (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Pilnik, Nikolay (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Ivanova, Maria (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The econometric model of inflation formation depending on the dynamics of the main factors is used as a research tool. According to the presented model, the main generators of volatility are the volatility of oil prices and the policy regime of course management. |
| Keywords: | consumer inflation, inflation targeting, volatility, currency corridor, gold reserves |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:041834&r=tra |
| By: | Beata Guziejewska (University of Lodz) |
| Abstract: | The presentation deals with the problem of shaping the decentralized system of public finance and interpretation of fiscal autonomy indicators. The analysis is theoretical and empirical. In the theory we can discuss two extreme scenarios: decentralised (60% own revenue, 40 % external revenue) and centralised system of public finance (40% own revenue, 60 % external revenue). If we assume only 40% share of own revenue, taxes, in the structure of financing sources for local government units, the consequence of this is low budget resilience to unfavourable external and internal factors and high probability of occurrence of broadly understood negative income shocks. The aim of the discussion is to analyse the trends in the practice of local government finances in Poland and selected countries of Central and Eastern Europe. The literature of the subject, studies by international institutions as well as data from Eurostat and EC are used in the deliberations. The discussed countries differ significantly in the scope of fiscal decentralisation. Latvia, the Czech Republic and Poland seem to be most advanced in the process. However the example of Poland shows limits and difficulties with interpretation of statistical measures. It is necessary to look at the categories of revenues which belong to the so-called "own revenues". It is questionable that in Poland we treat in the statistics the shares in Personal Income Tax and Corporate Income Tax as own revenues. Local government units do not exert any influence on the structure and amount of PIT and CIT (category of shared taxes). The autonomy in expenditure without real fiscal autonomy and responsibility leads to fiscal illusions and undermine the local democracy. |
| Keywords: | public finance, fiscal decentralization, local self-government, fiscal autonomy |
| JEL: | H70 H71 H77 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:7508533&r=tra |
| By: | Barnett, William; Hu, Mingzhi; Wang, Xue |
| Abstract: | Impacts on the probability of transition to entrepreneurship in rural China associated with the utilization of information communication technology (ICT) are estimated using longitudinal data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) survey. We identify cell phone ownership and internet use as proxy variables for ICT utilization and find that cell phone ownership and internet use have positive impacts on entrepreneurship. After controlling for observables and time and regional fixed effects, cell phone users (internet users) are 2.0 (6.4) percentage points more likely to engage in entrepreneurship than the others. Considering that the average entrepreneurship rate for rural households is only 9.5% in the sample, the influence of cell phone ownership and internet use are very strong in the economic sense. Our results are robust to unobservable individual characteristics, model misspecification, and reverse causality of entrepreneurship to ICT utilization. Evidence also suggests that social network and information and knowledge acquisition play the mediating roles in the impact of ICT utilization on entrepreneurship. |
| Keywords: | ICT; social network; information acquisition; entrepreneurship |
| JEL: | D10 M51 Q55 |
| Date: | 2018–03–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:86479&r=tra |
| By: | Jana Marie ?afránková (The College of Regional Development and Banking Institute ? AMBIS a.s.); Martin ?iký? (The College of Regional Development and Banking Institute ? AMBIS a.s.) |
| Abstract: | Based on the authors? scientific cooperation and research results the goal of the paper is to analyse approaches of organizational management and compare some examples of best practice in managing people in the Czech Republic. Modern approaches to managing people and developing organizations defines the concept of management, characterizes the role, functions, competencies and motivation of managers and presents the current generation of managers and are based on management competency, motivation and flexible adaptability. Paper summarizes the results of the authors' research on management and organization in terms of managing and leading people in organizations and managing and developing of organizations. The paper provides results of authors´ surveys on the problematic of management organization and managing people in SME Czech organizations in profit and non-profit sector. The paper aims to answer the following question: What are the similarities and differences in managing people processes in profit and non-profit organization? The results show some interesting tendencies mainly in approaches to the management, competence, development and training and evaluation processes. |
| Keywords: | management, organization, competence, people management, Czech Republic |
| JEL: | D23 M10 M12 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:7508878&r=tra |
| By: | Richard Grieveson (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Julia Grübler (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Mario Holzner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | The European Commission has set a target date of 2025 for Western Balkan EU accession, while also outlining a broader new strategy which includes Brussels taking a more active role in solving political disputes in the region, and upgrading infrastructure as part of the Berlin Process. We welcome these moves economic underdevelopment in the region is closely tied to political fractures. Aside from resolving political conflicts, improved governance in the region will also be necessary. In terms of meeting economic accession criteria, the region faces a host of challenges, but we believe that a focus on upgrading infrastructure and developing a much bigger and more competitive industrial base should be the priorities. While the economic influence of third parties in the region is not as significant as often portrayed, this is not guaranteed to last, particularly in the case of China, which is set to increase its economic presence in the Western Balkans in the coming years. Even if the region takes a great leap forward towards the EU, there are other barriers in the way which could also hold back accession. Nevertheless, while the 2025 target represents a highly ambitious best-case scenario, it could serve as a powerful incentive for countries in the region to speed up their reform agendas. We do not completely rule out at least Montenegro and Serbia joining the bloc by 2025 or shortly thereafter. |
| Keywords: | integration, governance, economic growth, competitiveness, industrialisation, infrastructure, economic policy, Western Balkans, EU |
| JEL: | E60 F15 F21 F43 H54 O11 O14 O18 O20 O24 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:pnotes:pn:22&r=tra |