nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2018‒04‒16
37 papers chosen by
J. David Brown
United States Census Bureau

  1. Budgetary Rules at the Regional Level: Main Approaches and Recommendations By Alexeev, Michael; Arlashkin, Igor; Barbashiova, Natalya; Deryugin, Alexander; Komarnitskaya, Anna; Moguchev, Nikita; Tischenko, Tatiana; Filippova, Irina
  2. Capital-Labor Substitution and the Decline in Labor's Share By Dan Berkowitz
  3. New information technologies use for Latvian stock companies financial health evaluation By Sergejs Hilkevics; Galina Hilkevica
  4. Reforms That Keep You at Home: The Effects of Economic Transition on Migration By Guzi, Martin; Mikula, Stepan
  5. Sustainable marketing communication strategies of Russian companies under the import substitution policy By Veronika Chernova; Alexander Zobov; Vasily Starostin; Galina Butkovskaya
  6. Cultural and Creative Industries (CCI) and sustainable development: China’s cultural industries clusters By Jianfei Yang; Jūratė Černevičiūtė
  7. Development of the High-Tech Sector of the Economy in Russia By Barinova, Vera; Zemtsov, Stepan; Lanshina, Tatiana
  8. The Construction of a Global General Equilibrium Model for the Russian Economy Based on International Experience By Nesterova, Kristina
  9. Testing the Asymmetric Convergence of the Real Exchange Rate to Equilibrium During the Managed Ruble Exchange Rate Regime By Skrobotov, Anton; Fokin, Nikita
  10. Markets and markups: a new empirical framework and evidence on exporters from China By Corsetti, Giancarlo; Crowley, Meredith; Han, Lu; Song, Huasheng
  11. Does the currency exposure affect stock returns of Chinese automobile firms? By Tang, Bo
  12. Through economic growth to the viability of rural space By Baiba Rivza; Maiga Kruzmetra
  13. Analysis of Actual Judicial Decisions of the EU Countries, Latin America and Other Countries of the World in the Framework of International Tax Agreements By Kornienko, Natalia; Minina, Elena; Korolev, Georgy; Pushkareva, Nataliya; Mitrofanova, Ekaterina
  14. Profit Luenberger and Malmquist-Luenberger indexes for multi-activity decision making units: the case of the star-rated hotel industry in China By Walheer, Barnabé; Zhang, Linjia
  15. Adaptive Population Strategies: Between Survival and Development By Avraamova, Elena; Karavay, Anastasia; Loginov, Dmitriy
  16. Forecasting the Real Index of Gross Domestic Product Using Dynamic Factor Models By Pleskachev, Yury; Ponomarev, Yury
  17. Public Infrastructure in the Western Balkans; Opportunities and Challenges By Ruben V Atoyan; Dora Benedek; Ezequiel Cabezon; Giuseppe Cipollone; Jacques A Miniane; Nhu Nguyen; Martin Petri; Jens Reinke; James Roaf
  18. Modern Approaches to the Training of Personnel in the Management System of Innovative Processes in Knowledge-Intensive Industries By Kushlin, Valery; Ustenko, Viktoria; Ivanov, Oleg; Sergeeva, Alexandra
  19. The Dynamic Effects of Computerized VAT Invoices on Chinese Manufacturing Firms By Haichao Fan; Yu Liu; Nancy Qian; Jaya Wen
  20. Analysis of International and Russian Experience in Regulating the Conclusion of Multilateral Agreements on Pricing with Taxpayers By Kornienko, Natalia; Minina, Elena; Korolev, Georgy; Mitrofanova, Ekaterina; Pushkareva, Nataliya
  21. The impact on the population on the sustainable urban economic development By Inesa Pavlova; Maija Šenfelde
  22. International Migration in Russia: A Qualified Component By Florinskaya, Yulia; Mkrtchyan, Nikita
  23. Impact of governing modes on agrarian sustainability in Bulgaria By Bachev, Hrabrin
  24. Innovation Networks and Clusters Dynamics By He, Ming; Walheer, Barnabé
  25. Development of a System for Monitoring and Regulating the Transfer of Commercially Valuable Research Results Established in the Russian Federation By Kurakova, Natalia; Zinov, Vladimir
  26. The Effective Lower Bound for the Policy Rate in Euroized Economies—An Application to the Case of Albania By Guido della Valle; Erald Themeli; Romain M Veyrune; Ezequiel Cabezon; Shaoyu Guo
  27. Problems of corruption and tax evasion in construction sector in Belarus By Anastasiya Luzgina
  28. Length of a Healthy Life of the Population of Russia. Modeling, Regional Assessments and Forecasting By Scherbov, Sergei; Shulgin, Sergey
  29. Inventor Name Disambiguation with Gradient Boosting Decision Tree and Inventor Mobility in China (1985-2016) By YIN Deyun; MOTOHASHI Kazuyuki
  30. Increase in Retirement Age: Positive Effects and Likely Risks By Gorlin, Yury; Lyashok, Victor; Maleva, Tatiana
  31. The effect of maize production and consumption on prices in Romania By Petre, Ionut Laurentiu
  32. Technological Dependence on Imports and Prospects for Import Substitution in Russian Industrial Production By Berezinskaya, Olga; Schelokova, Dina
  33. Establishing National Carbon Emission Prices for China By Chia-Lin Chang; Te-Ke Mai; Michael McAleer
  34. Local Competitiveness and Labour Market Returns in a Transition Economy: Evidence from Vietnam By Tinh Doan; Tran Quang Tuyen; Hien Nguyen
  35. Analysis of the Russian Market of Derivative Financial Instruments By Danilov, Yury
  36. Counterintuitive facts regarding household saving in China: the saving glut By Kevin Luo; Tomoko Kinugasa
  37. Industrial Policy of Russia at a New Stage of Development: Limiting Economic Growth and Overcoming Them By Magomedov, Rustam; Ponomareva, Ekaterina

  1. By: Alexeev, Michael (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Arlashkin, Igor (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Barbashiova, Natalya (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Deryugin, Alexander (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Komarnitskaya, Anna (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Moguchev, Nikita (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Tischenko, Tatiana (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Filippova, Irina (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The paper presents the results of the analysis of the Russian system of regional fiscal rules, including the comparison of the Russian and the foreign systems of regional fiscal rules. Based on the results of the analysis, recommendations are given to alter regional fiscal rules, established both in federal and in the regional legislation.
    Date: 2018–03
  2. By: Dan Berkowitz
    Abstract: The studies of Piketty (2014) and Karabarbounis and Neiman (2014) show that labor sharesaround the world decline because capital robustly substitutes for labor as its relative costdeclines. Because these studies use aggregate data, they cannot show how heterogeneous firms'decisions shape aggregate labor shares. Using Chinese manufacturing data, we show firms' la-bor shares di¤er substantially because of the massive heterogeneity of their capital intensities,product markups, and ownerships. Although capital and labor are substitutes and the cost ofcapital declines, our counter-factual analysis indicates the quantitative impact of capital-laborsubstitution on declining labor shares is small.
    Date: 2018–01
  3. By: Sergejs Hilkevics (Ventspils University College); Galina Hilkevica (Ventspils University College)
    Abstract: Financial health of companies in certain region is the foundation on which the prosperity of region is based. If companies in region are healthy and successful, there are good reasons to believe that all social problems can be solved relatively easy. Regional economic development in Latvia at present time happens inhomogeniously – there is a growing region near Riga where economic and social development is going very good, and there are regions where results are worse. The main purpose of this paper is to describe, apply and provide critical review the existing information technologies based possibilities for Latvian companies' financial health evaluation. We focus on the set of financial ratios necessary for economic health evaluation and homepages parsing based methods for these ratios determination for Latvian companies.
    Keywords: fundamental analysis,new information technologies
    Date: 2017–12–29
  4. By: Guzi, Martin (Masaryk University); Mikula, Stepan (Masaryk University)
    Abstract: Theory asserts that individuals' migration decisions depend more on their expectations about future income levels than on their current income levels. We find that the implementation of market-oriented reforms in post-communist countries, by forming good economic prospects, has reduced emigration as predicted by theory. Our estimates show that migration flows are highly responsive to reforms supporting private enterprises and financial services, which provide individuals with strong signals about their future prospects. Reforms that improve the management of infrastructure services are shown to have no link with migration patterns and this may be an important lesson for government policy.
    Keywords: EBRD transition indicators, emigration, post-communist countries, multilateral resistance
    JEL: F22 J61 O15
    Date: 2018–02
  5. By: Veronika Chernova (Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia); Alexander Zobov (Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia); Vasily Starostin (State University of Management); Galina Butkovskaya (State University of Management)
    Abstract: The sanction standoff between Russia and the West opened up new opportunities for Russian food manufacturers. A new import substitution policy declared by the government restricted the access of the leading foreign countries to the market and unlocked a potential for internal development. Russian producers spotted new niches in the food market. There exist numerous obstacles to assimilating new market prospects: organizational (logistics, infrastructure, etc.), investment, legal, economic, etc. The paper underlines that the problem of enhancing the effectiveness of food companies' marketing policy in the context of import substitution is among the most formidable challenges. The article generalizes the problems of implementing the marketing policy of Russian enterprises. It reviews the core findings of the research studies on exploring consumers' attitude towards Russian and foreign-made food products. The author formulates recommendations about executing sustainable marketing communication strategies of Russian companies under import substitution.
    Keywords: consumer goods,food products,marketing communications,import substitution
    Date: 2017–12–29
  6. By: Jianfei Yang (Communication University of China); Jūratė Černevičiūtė (Vilnius Academy of Arts)
    Abstract: The cultural and creative industries link the traditional knowledge to the ultimate consumer in their capacity to serve both cultural and economic objectives. In this regard, the cultural and creative industries can be seen as consistent with the sustainable development paradigm. Cultural industries cluster is playing an increasingly important role in the development of Chinese cultural industries. This article looks at the Cluster Development Strategy of Chinese Cultural Industries and tries to draw a map of cultural industries clusters in Beijing according to the data gathered from 19 cultural industries clusters in Beijing. With the clusters as a case study, we argue that in the course of development clusters are weak in production research and innovation, combined effect and public service although there is much achievement .At last, the suggestions to promote the sustainable development of cultural industries clusters will be discussed.
    Keywords: cultural system reform,cultural clusters,cultural and creative industries,sustainable development
    Date: 2017–12–29
  7. By: Barinova, Vera (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Zemtsov, Stepan (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Lanshina, Tatiana (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: In the twentieth century, the high-tech sector of the world economy played a decisive role in economic development, radically changing many industries and technologies and improving the quality of people's lives. At present, in the 21st century, the role of high-tech industries continues to grow. In the context of the need to search for non-primary factors of growth in the Russian economy, its advantages and limitations are discussed. The territorial and sectoral structure of the sector in Russia is described in detail, a high proportion of knowledge-intensive industries is noted. A detailed analysis of the significant characteristics of the development of the high-tech sector (wages, exports, introduction of innovations, exchange of technologies, etc.) is given. The main trends in the development of technologically complex industries are analyzed, in particular, the causes and consequences of the observed increase in the share of the entire sector in the Russian economy are discussed. Based on the results of the analysis, conclusions have been prepared on the prospects for the development of high technology in Russia.
    Keywords: high-tech industries, export, introduction of innovations, development, exchange of technologies
    Date: 2018–02
  8. By: Nesterova, Kristina (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: Multiregional computable general equilibrium models are employed extensively in international practice of examining the consequences of various measures of economic policy in the global context. Depending on the goals of the considered economic policy, the optimal model structure may vary. This study offers a comparison of a range of global CGE models, which results into constructing a global CGE model focused on current issues of Russian economic policy, such as the tax maneuver and the pension reform.
    Keywords: equilibrium model, international trade, tax reform
    Date: 2018–02
  9. By: Skrobotov, Anton (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Fokin, Nikita (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: In the paper, an attempt is made to take into account the asymmetric reaction of the Bank of Russia to the positive and negative shocks of external economic conditions during the period from January 1999 to October 2014. For this, the nonlinear cointegrating regression with real exchange rate and real oil prices is modeled using the threshold vector error correction model (TVECM).
    Keywords: real exchange rate, monetary policy, The Central Bank of Russia, threshold error correction model, TVECM model
    Date: 2018–02
  10. By: Corsetti, Giancarlo; Crowley, Meredith; Han, Lu; Song, Huasheng
    Abstract: We develop a new empirical framework to analyse destination-specific markup and quantity adjustments to bilateral exchange rates by exporters. The framework offers two methodological innovations. First, we develop an unbiased estimator of the markup elasticity that correctly isolates marginal costs in large unbalanced panels where the set of markets served by firms varies endogenously with currency movements. Second, we exploit Chinese linguistics to process characters recorded in Chinese custom forms to build a novel, general, product classification distinguishing high and low differentiation goods|which we can use to proxy for exporters' market power. Applying this framework to exporters from China over 2000-2014, we document substantial heterogeneity in destination-specific markup elasticities across product classes and firm types. Conditional on a price change, the average markup elasticity for highly differentiated consumption goods is 32%; markup adjustments explain three quarters of incomplete pass through into import prices for these goods. In contrast, the average for low-differentiation intermediates is only 5%, suggesting that pricing for these goods responds to global, rather than local, economic conditions. Markup elasticities are higher for both state-owned and foreign-invested enterprises than for private enterprises, which, on average, pursue aggressively competitive strategies throughout our sample.
    Keywords: exchange rates; pricing-to-market; product classification; differentiated goods; market power; markup elasticity; trade elasticity; China
    JEL: F31 F41
    Date: 2018–02
  11. By: Tang, Bo
    Abstract: This study examines the symmetric and asymmetric exchange rate exposures of Chinese automobile firms at different time horizons. Empirical findings reveal that firm returns are less likely to be affected by currency movements at short-term (daily) horizons due to restrictions on the currency daily trading band, but (a)symmetric exchange rate exposures appear to be significant at relatively longer horizons after the launch of RMB internationalisation, particularly for monthly horizons. Possible hedging strategies could be the application of Forward Exchange Agreements, price difference between onshore and offshore RMB exchange rate, foreign reserves and other quantitative methods. Since returns of foreign capital shares tend to rise with the application of RMB, firms may also consider listing shares on foreign stock exchange in addition to the domestic market and produce products simultaneously in foreign nations through international expansion.
    Keywords: exchange rate exposure, RMB internationalisation, Chinese automobile firms.
    JEL: C58 F31 G15
    Date: 2018
  12. By: Baiba Rivza (Latvia University of Agriculture); Maiga Kruzmetra (Latvia University of Agriculture)
    Abstract: Rural areas as a necessary component of living space for the population is an increasing focus both in official documents of various EU institutions and in research investigations. Both the documents and the research papers stress the necessity to enhance and maintain the viability of rural areas. The viability of rural areas is ensured by employment opportunities and the readiness of residents for active and innovative economic activity. The authors' research focuses on an analysis of vertical and horizontal changes in entrepreneurship in the period 2009-2015 and their effects on changes in the living space in the territories analysed, which primarily involves the country's regions, but a special focus is placed on the mentioned processes in territorial units of the regions – municipalities –, as the life of residents is influenced not only by national policies but also by ongoing processes in the administrative territories of local governments. Zemgale region was chosen for an in-depth analysis of these processes. LURSOFT data for the period 2009-2015 and Central Statistical Bureau data for the period 2013-2015 were used as information sources. The data were processed by quantitative (growth) and qualitative (structural change) statistical analysis methods. The Eurostat methodology and a methodology developed by the authors for classification of industries were employed for the analysis of structural changes in the national economy. The development level-rate matrix method was employed for an in-depth examination of the research results. The research results showed that regardless of the global economic crisis, both vertical growth and positive horizontal change processes took place in the national economy in all five regions of Latvia, nine cities of national significance as well as in all 110 municipalities that composed the rural areas of Latvia. The analysis of the information allows concluding that, first, performance trends were observed in the rural space, which contributed to economic growth; second, there was no direct causal relationship between the population density of rural territories and economic activity in the rural territories; however, third, it leads to an opinion that the economic growth in the rural territories was greatly affected by the quality of local governance and local community residents' readiness for active, innovative and inclusive action.
    Keywords: local community,local governance,living space,structural changes,knowledge-based economy
    Date: 2017–12–29
  13. By: Kornienko, Natalia (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Minina, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Korolev, Georgy (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Pushkareva, Nataliya (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Mitrofanova, Ekaterina (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: There are a number of objective reasons contributing to the growth of the importance of international tax treaties both in the world in general and for Russian Federation in particular: globalization, liberalization of foreign economic activity legislation in different countries; proclaiming freedom of movement of capital, goods, services and labor within the Eurasian Economic Union; OECD work on Action Plan on combating tax base erosion and profits shifting (BEPS) in implementation of which the Russian Federation takes an active part. In addition to the above, the Main directions of the tax policy of the Russian Federation for year 2016 and for the planning period of years 2017 and 2018 also contain development of measures aimed at solving problems of eliminating double "non-taxation" in the framework of BEPS Action Plan as well as, for example, clarification of a number of issues, in particular - taxation of corporate borrowing. The presented work contains analysis of actual court decisions in different countries of the world regarding application of the international tax treaties. This work is of the greatest interest due to the fact that a significant part of the judgments are decisions dated years 2015-2017 selected based on their relevance to the Russian Federation. Other decisions are not so relevant for Russia today, but will be relevant in the future, for example, judicial decisions on taxation of compensation payments to executives and top managers of companies such as the "golden handshake". The list of countries for which relevant judicial decisions are presented is not limited to the EU countries but also includes countries of Latin America and other countries such as Australia and India. The work also presents judicial decisions of the supranational body of the EU - the Court of Justice of the European Union.
    Date: 2018–03
  14. By: Walheer, Barnabé (Division of Economics, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University); Zhang, Linjia (Division of Economics, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool)
    Abstract: Due to the vigorous economic development of the tourism industry in China, the number of star-rated hotels has rapidly increased. As a result, techniques to evaluate the performances of the star-rated hotels have gained in popularity. In this paper, we develop two indexes for dynamic settings: the profit Luenberger and Malmquist-Luenberger indexes. The distinguishing features of our indexes are three-fold. One, we adopt an economic perspective by considering that hotels are profit maximizers. Two, we model hotels as multi-activity decision making units by considering that they provide multiple services. Three, our indexes are nonparametric, and work when prices are partially observed. We apply our technique to 30 provinces in 2005-2015. We find that star-rated hotels present better performances over time, but not for every activity. Next, we highlight particular patterns for the provinces. These results are useful for managers to better target their investments, and also for policy makers.
    Keywords: destination management; profit efficiency; Luenberger index; Malmquist-Luenberger index; multi-activity; hotel; China.
    Date: 2018–04–01
  15. By: Avraamova, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Karavay, Anastasia (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Loginov, Dmitriy (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: This paper contains the results of the study which purpose was to identify the main adaptation strategies, implemented by different layers of Russian population to maintain the achieved standard of living or to improve it, as well as to determine the quality and efficiency of these strategies. The most spread adaptation strategies of Russians are studied: outsourcing, investment and savings strategy, strategy of the labor activity increase, strategy of changes in the professional sphere, the migration strategy and the strategy of private farming conducting. There are built the integral indicators of risks of reduction in life quality and adaptive capacity of the population. The methodology of the study involves the application of contemporary theoretical and empirical approaches, development of a system of indicators of the adaption practices success and efficiency of these strategies. The empirical part is based on the collection and analysis of sociological information, obtained in the course of representative polls (3500 respondents were polled in 2016, and 3000 respondents were polled in 2017).
    Date: 2018–02
  16. By: Pleskachev, Yury (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Ponomarev, Yury (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: Successful implementation of economic policy measures largely depends on the efficiency and accuracy of forecasts of key macroeconomic parameters of the economy. Deceleration of Russia's economic growth in the years 2013-2014 and the subsequent fall in GDP in 2015-2016 once again demonstrated the importance of taking urgent and at the same time balanced decisions, the basis for which should be the most relevant statistical base on key indicators, including real GDP. At the same time quarterly data on GDP dynamics is published with a considerable delay, which leads to the need of short-term forecasts in real time. The use of dynamic factor models for rapid forecasting of GDP has become particularly popular in world literature and also in practice (such models are used by the central Banks of the world's leading countries) over the last few years due to more accurate forecasts that allow to obtain the model data, as well as the fact that they allow to take into account changes in economic conditions and their impact on the country's economy in the formation of PUBLIC policy measures before the relevant statistical data are published.
    Date: 2018–03
  17. By: Ruben V Atoyan; Dora Benedek; Ezequiel Cabezon; Giuseppe Cipollone; Jacques A Miniane; Nhu Nguyen; Martin Petri; Jens Reinke; James Roaf
    Abstract: An assessment of public infrastructure development in the Western Balkans. The paper quantifies the large gaps across various sectors/dimensions, evaluates current infrastructure plans, and discusses funding options available to countries in the region. The paper also identifies important bottlenecks for increased infrastructure investment. Finally, the paper quantifies potential growth benefits from addressing infrastructure gaps, concluding that boosting the quantity and quality of infrastructure is vital for raising economic growth and accelerating income convergence with the EU. The paper concludes with country-specific policy recommendations.
    Keywords: Infrastructure;Europe;Output growth;Growth acceleration;Infrastructure policies;
    Date: 2018–02–07
  18. By: Kushlin, Valery (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Ustenko, Viktoria (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Ivanov, Oleg (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Sergeeva, Alexandra (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: In the face of new challenges, Russia is experiencing an objective need to accelerate the pace of economic growth by moving to an innovative economy. The tasks of technological modernization require the development of new approaches to the training and retraining of personnel necessary for the implementation of a breakthrough in priority science-intensive industries and, on this basis, improving the quality of management at all levels of the national economy, taking into account the best foreign and domestic practices. The paper analyzes the peculiarities of state regulation of the development of science intensive industries in the process of formation of the innovation economy and substantiates the need for improving the mechanism of training and professional development of cadres in the high technology strategic sectors of the Russian economy. The ways and possibilities of restructuring the system of higher and secondary vocational education in Russia are examined with the use of the most effective world experience accumulated recently. Particular attention is paid to the possibility of using modern geoinformation technologies to prepare innovative personnel. The experience of interaction of Russian higher educational institutions on the use of modern geoinformation technologies in education, science and management of regional development is examined.
    Date: 2018–03
  19. By: Haichao Fan; Yu Liu; Nancy Qian; Jaya Wen
    Abstract: This paper uses a balanced panel of large manufacturing firms to provide novel evidence on the dynamic effects of computerizing VAT invoices on tax revenues and firm behavior in China, 1998-2007. We find that computerization explains 14.38% of cumulative VAT revenues and increases the effective average tax rate by approximately 4.7-14% in the seven subsequent years. The evidence suggests that the effects of computerization change over time: tax revenue gains are likely to be smaller in the long run. Meanwhile, firms reduce output and input, and increase productivity monotonically over time.
    JEL: H26 H32 O10
    Date: 2018–03
  20. By: Kornienko, Natalia (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Minina, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Korolev, Georgy (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Mitrofanova, Ekaterina (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Pushkareva, Nataliya (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: Pricing agreements or, as they are called abroad, advanced pricing agreements, are no longer a new tool for controlling transfer pricing around the world, since the first advanced pricing agreements were concluded in the US in the last century. However, for Russia this instrument of transfer pricing is still quite new; legally the possibility of concluding such agreements only arose in 2012. At the same time, today the possibility of concluding pricing agreements in Russia is still a prerogative of largest taxpayers only, while abroad an opportunity to conclude advanced pricing agreement has been granted to all taxpayers, and in some countries small and medium-sized businesses enjoy simplified procedure for the conclusion and / or execution of advanced pricing agreements. The presented work analyses foreign experience of concluding and implementing advanced pricing agreements, both unilateral and multilateral. Special attention is paid to the analysis of international experience in concluding and implementing simplified advanced pricing agreements. In addition, the work analyses Russian experience of concluding pricing agreements.
    Date: 2018–03
  21. By: Inesa Pavlova (Riga Technical University); Maija Šenfelde (Riga Technical University)
    Abstract: Today, attention is paid to urban sustainable development and a resident as of a sustainable urban economic development in the core and foundation and most problem is the migration of them. It's important to remember that the city is the socioeconomic development and improvement of local promoter based resident. Given that both in Riga and in the whole country's population is shrinking, which is based on the migration problem. Riga is the largest and one of the economically richest municipalities and the capital of country in same time, it should serve as a model as a prop adjacent municipalities. It is important to remember and to follow Riga's sustainable development strategy according 2030 guidelines, which states that every neighborhood has equal opportunities to grow, develop and live, but is not currently being met. Given that the average active economically population is 62% of the employed population and 46% of the total population, which is critical in the city and surrounding sustainable development. Therefore, within the framework of the article it will be considered as a resident of the city affects urban sustainable economic development and will highlight the city of Riga overall economic performance and each residential area separately. The article is to determine what the impact of urban resident urban sustainable economic development is, and what the stumbling block of the population migration and low participation in urban development is, which is considered as one of the most important promoters of sustainability.
    Keywords: resident,Riga,urban environment,sustainable development,economic development
    Date: 2017–12–29
  22. By: Florinskaya, Yulia (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Mkrtchyan, Nikita (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: Based on all available data of state statistics and surveys, the level of education of long-term and temporary labor international migrants in Russia is analyzed and compared with the level of education of the country's population. The composition of long-term international migrants by education varies according to age, as well as from countries with which migration is carried out. The level of education of long-term migrants is quite close to the population of Russia, but in general the country lost more educated migrants than acquired. The distribution of international migrants by education depends on a change in the methodology for recording migration, which makes comparisons over a long period difficult. Regarding temporary labor migration, the statistical sources used are not so detailed, and cover not the entire population of migrants in Russia. However, the data from sample surveys make possible to conclude that the educational potential of migrants is used, and to analyze specially selected categories of highly skilled migrants.
    Date: 2018–02
  23. By: Bachev, Hrabrin
    Abstract: The specific system of governance in different countries, regions, subsectors, etc., eventually determines the speed and type of socio-economic development. Despite its big academic and practical importance, in Bulgaria and other countries in East Europe, there are very few empirical studies on dominating governing structures in agriculture, and their impact(s) on agrarian sustainability. In this paper the interdisciplinary New Institutional Economics framework is incorporated, and the impact of diverse market, private, collective, public and hybrid modes of governance on agrarian sustainability at the current stage of development in Bulgaria assessed. First, the methodological framework of the study is outlined. After that dominating governing modes in Bulgarian farms of different juridical type, size, specialization, ecological and geographical location are identified, and their impacts on agrarian sustainability and its economic, social, and environmental pillars evaluated. In conclusion implications for further research, public policy improvement, and private managerial strategy formation are presented. Agricultural producers of different use quite unlike mixture of effective market, private, collective and hybrid modes for governance of their activities and relations. Individual factors and modes most contributing to improvement of agrarian sustainability at the current stage of development are: manager’s personal convictions and initiatives, farms resources and innovation potential, near future profit and benefits strategies, market prices levels and dynamics, area-based EU subsidies, and informal agreements. Research on relations between the governing structure and agrarian sustainability is to continue though increasing representation, and the spectrum of specific governing modes used by farms of different type as well as assessments of the impact of institutions on agrarian sustainability and the impact of the governance at different hierarchical levels. The latter however, requires a new kind of micro and macro data, and a close cooperation between all interested parties.
    Keywords: Agrarian Governance, Sustainability, Market, Private, Collective, Hybrid modes, Bulgaria
    JEL: D22 D23 D4 K0 Q12 Q13 Q14 Q15 Q18 Q5
    Date: 2018–03
  24. By: He, Ming (Division of Economics, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool); Walheer, Barnabé (Division of Economics, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University)
    Abstract: CFor several decades, the manufacturing industry has been the pillar industry in terms of economic growth in China. The importance of the manufacturing industry is also highlighted by the numerous policy interventions in favour of this industry. In this paper, we identify the key industrial sectors in terms of technical performances and technological advancements for the period 1999-2007. This represents particular valuable information in the context of policy implementations. The distinguishing features of our study are five-fold. One, we make used of a tailored firm-level database. Two, we distinguish between four types of firm ownership. Three, we consider 30 manufacturing sectors. Four, we extend a well-established methodology to answer our questions. Five, we rely on a robust nonparametric estimation method. Our results confirm that firm ownership is important in explaining technical efficiency and technology gap. We also show that foreign firms set the standard for technical efficiency, and are the leaders in terms of technology advancement; that private firms show technology advancements accompanied by eciency losses; and that China has successfully revitalized state-owned firms, although there is still room for improvement. Finally, we find evidence that China's industrial development plans have been successful in stimulating technology progress in many key sectors; but that the current policy of (re)nationalization may undermine technical efficiency and slow down technology progress.
    Keywords: technology gap; technical eciency; manufacturing industry; China; metafrontier; DEA.
    Date: 2018–04–01
  25. By: Kurakova, Natalia (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Zinov, Vladimir (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The study reflects methodological approaches for the development of a set of measures aimed at improving monitoring and control over the enforcement of rights to intellectual property objects that have a high potential for industrial use. The work is based on the analysis of the national patent flow generated by the residents of the Russian Federation, according to the branches and categories of applicants for the period 1996-2016, which were submitted to foreign patent offices without specifying the Russian priority.
    Date: 2018–03
  26. By: Guido della Valle; Erald Themeli; Romain M Veyrune; Ezequiel Cabezon; Shaoyu Guo
    Abstract: Based on the experience of the Bank of Albania, the paper proposes a framework to estimate the interest rate lower bound in small, open, and euroized economies. The paper introduces a stylized monitoring tool to assess the unintended consequences of low policy rates. The paper is the first attempt to estimate the impact of low interest rate on the public’s demand for banknote by denomination. A strong preference for banknotes leads economic agents to require a higher remuneration of banks’ deposits, lifting the lower bound above zero. Financial euroization also lifts the lower policy bound due to the higher propensity of substituting domestic with foreign currency–denominated assets as a function of the interest rate differential. Policies aiming at reducing financial euroization contribute to bring down the lower bound.
    Date: 2018–03–13
  27. By: Anastasiya Luzgina (Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center)
    Abstract: Construction sector is on of the most closed and corrupted sector in many countries. Belarus is no exception. For understanding the real situation with corruption and tax evasion in construction sector in Belarus the survey of 50 construction companies was done. According to achieved results, a large share of respondents agreed that some companies of the sector have hidden income, pay salaries " in envelopes " and spend some money for resolving problems with state institutions. At the same time construction enterprises that participated in tenders on municipal procurement underline many problems in this specific sphere. All these problems can be divided by administrative, economic and problems associated with the existence of corruption and the shadow economy. The most popular answers include corruption, unfair competition and imperfect legislation. On the base of international experience and the results of the survey we develop the list of recommendations for decreasing the level of corruption and tax evasion in construction sector that will support to create favorable environment for business development of the country.
    Keywords: corruption,tax evasion,construction,shadow economy,municipal procurements
    Date: 2017–12–29
  28. By: Scherbov, Sergei (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Shulgin, Sergey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: In this paper, we estimate the expected duration of healthy life for the regions of Russia. For this, the Sanderson-Shcherbov model is estimated on the microdata of the World Health Organization collected in the SAGE survey for countries with an average life expectancy. Using the obtained model estimates and mortality tables (for Russia in general and for individual Russian regions), estimates are made for the age-related prevalence of health status. Using the Sullivan model and estimated age-related prevalence rates, extended mortality tables are constructed and estimates of the expected duration of healthy life are made. This approach is used to obtain Russian regional estimates for 2015 and Russian forecast trajectories.
    Date: 2018–03
  29. By: YIN Deyun; MOTOHASHI Kazuyuki
    Abstract: This paper presents the first systematic disambiguation result of all Chinese patent inventors in the State Intellectual Property Office of China (SIPO) patent database from 1985 to 2016. We provide a method of constructing high-qualitative training data from lists of rare names and evidence for the reliability of these generated labels when large-scale and representative hand-labeled data are crucial but expensive, prone to error, and even impossible to obtain. We then compare the performances of seven supervised models, i.e., naive Bayes, logistic, linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and quadratic discriminant analysis (QDA), as well as tree-based methods (random forest, AdaBoost, and gradient boosting decision trees), and found that gradient boosting classifier outperforms all other classifiers with the highest F1-score and stable performance in solving the homonym problem prevailing in Chinese names. In the last step, instead of adopting the more popular hierarchical clustering method, we clustered records with the density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) based on the distance matrix predicated by the GBDT classifier. Varying across different testing data and parameters of DBSCAN, our algorithm yielded a F1-score ranging from 93.5%-99.3% with splitting error within the range 0.5%-3% and lumping error between 0.056%-0.37%. Based on our disambiguated result, we provide an overview of Chinese inventors' regional mobility.
    Date: 2018–03
  30. By: Gorlin, Yury (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Lyashok, Victor (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Maleva, Tatiana (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The paper substantiates the need for reforming the pension system in Russia, in terms of raising the retirement age, highlights the positive consequences of such a reform, analyzes potential risks, examines their prevention measures, and cites counter-arguments to the most common objections. It is shown that as a result of demographic processes, the growth of informal employment, the decrease in the length of average length of service, the number of donors decreases with the number of recipients of the pension system. In these circumstances, maintaining the level of pensions will require significant additional costs that will fall on the national economy and the state budget. Raising the retirement age as one of the measures to optimize the pension system is aimed not only at maintaining an acceptable level of pensions, preventing the growth of budget transfers and increasing the burden on business and the population. The reform will improve the situation on the labor market and will contribute to the processes of active longevity. It is shown that the main arguments against raising the retirement age are for the most part not fully justified. A number of scenarios for raising the retirement age are examined in the work, the choice of the most rational from the economic and socio-demographic points of view is justified: up to 63 years for men, up to 60 years for women with a rate of 3 months per year in the first four years of reform, then for 6 months in year. The paper identifies the main tasks that must be solved in preparation for raising the retirement age in order to carry out such a socially and economically significant reform as efficiently as possible.
    Date: 2018–03
  31. By: Petre, Ionut Laurentiu
    Abstract: The present study seeks to answer the question: how does corn price influence production, consumption and foreign trade? In order to answer this question we will analyse the areas cultivated with corn, the total production and implicitly the average yield per hectare in the last years. These data, together with the average annual consumption of grain maize and the volume of imports and exports, will lead to the determination of supply and demand for maize on the market. With the help of price data collected on the website of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, which can be found in geographical areas and calendar months, we can observe the monthly differences in prices. Using these data and calculating the correlation coefficient, it will be possible to determine at the end of the project the effects of the demand and the supply on the price of this product.
    Keywords: maize price, consumption, production, demand, supply
    JEL: Q11
    Date: 2017–11–16
  32. By: Berezinskaya, Olga (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Schelokova, Dina (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The work is devoted to the analysis of the dynamics and characteristics of the dependence of Russian industrial production and the Russian market on imports and the identification of the activity and potential of import substitution in Russian industry. Actuality of work is determined by the scale of the dependence of the production process on the import of various industrial productions Russian economy, conditioned by the developed strategies of their development. With the weakening of the national currency, technological dependence on imports is a risk factor for the production and financial performance of Russian enterprises and at the same time forms a significant potential for import substitution as the most important driver of the growth of the Russian economy in the face of tight foreign trade restrictions. The work contains an analysis of the change in the costs of Russian industrial enterprises and the economy as a whole for imported raw materials, materials, purchased products with the maximum focus for the period of the weakening of the national currency and foreign trade restrictions, the dynamics and scale of the dependence of various industrial productions and the Russian market on imports during periods of strengthening and weakening of the national currency. Additional attention is paid to identifying the directions of import substitution in Russian industrial production. The results obtained in the work are substantial for understanding the dynamics, scale and nature of technological dependence on imports and the prospects for import substitution in Russian industrial production.
    Keywords: industrial production, local market, import, import substitution
    Date: 2018–02
  33. By: Chia-Lin Chang (National Chung Hsing University, Taiwan); Te-Ke Mai (National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan); Michael McAleer (Asia University, Taiwan; Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands)
    Abstract: The purpose of the paper is to establish national carbon emissions prices for the People’s Republic of China, which is one of the world’s largest producers of carbon emissions. Several measures have been undertaken to address climate change in China, including the establishment of a carbon trading system. Since 2013, eight regional carbon emissions markets have been established, namely Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Shenzhen, Tianjin, Chongqing, Hubei and Fujian. The Central Government announced a national carbon emissions market, with power generation as the first industry to be considered. However, as carbon emissions prices in the eight regional markets are very different, for a variety of administrative reasons, it is essential to create a procedure for establishing a national carbon emissions price. The regional markets are pioneers, and their experience will play important roles in establishing a national carbon emissions market, with national prices based on regional prices, turnovers and volumes. The paper considers two sources of regional data for China’s carbon allowances, which are based on primary and secondary data sources, and compares their relative strengths and weaknesses. The paper establishes national carbon emissions prices based on the primary and secondary regional prices, for the first time, and compares both national prices and regional prices against each other. The carbon emission prices in Hubei, Guangdong, Shenzhen and Tianjin are highly correlated with the national prices based on the primary and secondary sources. Establishing national carbon emissions prices should be very helpful for the national carbon emissions market that is under construction in China, as well as for other regions and countries worldwide.
    Keywords: Pricing Chinese carbon emissions; National pricing policy; Energy; Volatility; Energy finance; Provincial decisions
    JEL: C22 C58 G12 Q48
    Date: 2018–03–30
  34. By: Tinh Doan (University of Economics and Business, Vietnam); Tran Quang Tuyen (University of Economics and Business, Vietnam); Hien Nguyen (International Labour Organization)
    Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between the quality of provincial governance and labour market returns in Vietnam. We find that better provincial governance has a positive effect on labour market wages for wage-earning workers. The finding is consistent across estimators, even after controlling for worker characteristics, geographic regions, urban context, economic sector and industry type. A better competitive environment for business attracts more firms to enter the market, which in turn creates greater demand for labour. Subsequently, higher demand for labour pushes up wages. Our unique contribution is that we considered the influence of provincial governance on the business environment and labour market returns.
    Keywords: economic transition; institutional competitiveness; labour market returns;Vietnam
    JEL: J21 J24 J31 L19 P23
    Date: 2018–04–10
  35. By: Danilov, Yury (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The paper studies the development of the Russian derivative financial instruments. The results of calculations of the main quantitative indicators of the development of this market, including the main structural parameters, are presented. The main obstacles are identified and proposals for their overcoming are formulated. Factors determining the formation of foreign markets for derivative financial instruments on Russian assets and factors facilitating the return of these markets to Russian jurisdiction are investigated. Proposals on the further development of the markets for derivative financial instruments in Russia are formulated.
    Date: 2018–03
  36. By: Kevin Luo (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University); Tomoko Kinugasa (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University)
    Abstract: This study begins by confirming that China has been in a state of overaccumulation over the past decade. Against this backdrop, we empirically investigate the underlying determinants of Chinese household saving, and present both intuitive and distinct insights. Considering that overaccumulation has become a major threat to China's economic performance, we find that certain policies and phenomena, which are usually regarded as positive factors (e.g., the SOE reform), are primarily responsible for China's excess saving, and those usually deemed to be negative factors (e.g., the real estate bubble), have essentially mitigated the surplus saving.
    Keywords: China; Household saving; Over-accumulation; GMM estimator; Policy design
    JEL: C33 D12 E21 G28
    Date: 2018–04
  37. By: Magomedov, Rustam (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Ponomareva, Ekaterina (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), Russian Foreign Trade Academy)
    Abstract: The goal of the research is analyzing the main constraints to the development of manufacturing industries and proposing the criteria of necessity and effectiveness of the support of different industries. To achieve the above objective the following tasks were solved: - the review of theoretical approaches to industrial policy was conducted; - the main constraints to the development of Russian manufacturing industries were identified; - the current distribution of budget resources between different manufacturing industries was analyzed and the changes to the distribution was propozed; - the impact of financial constraints on industrial development was quantitatively estimated; - the recommendations for the use of the study’s results were proposed.
    Date: 2018–03

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