|
on Transition Economics |
| By: | Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Rumen Dobrinsky (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Vladimir Gligorov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Richard Grieveson (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Doris Hanzl-Weiss (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Peter Havlik (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Gabor Hunya (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sebastian Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Isilda Mara (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Olga Pindyuk (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Leon Podkaminer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sandor Richter (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Robert Stehrer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Roman Stöllinger (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Hermine Vidovic (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Aggregate real GDP growth in CESEE is at its strongest level for six years, and in 2017 all economies in the region expanded for the first time in a decade. External conditions are highly supportive of growth in CESEE. All the big engines of the global economy – the US, China and the eurozone – are expanding strongly together for the first time since 2010. The coordinated global upswing has further to run, and we expect CESEE economies to continue to benefit in the coming years. EU-CEE and Turkey will grow strongly during our forecast period, while activity in the Western Balkans will pick up from recent years. The CIS and Ukraine will remain the regional laggards, but will continue to recover slowly. We do not think that any economy in the region is ‘overheating’, although there are growing risks in Romania and Turkey. We expect inflation to remain very subdued in most of CESEE during the forecast period. In parts of CESEE, large-scale Ukrainian migration is helping to relieve labour market tightness. Wage increases in most of CESEE have been strong, but are concentrated largely in the manufacturing sector, and have been more than offset by rising labour productivity and non-price competitiveness. External competitiveness is not in danger. Across the region, investment will rise faster than headline real GDP growth in 2018-2020, driven by low interest rates, high capacity utilisation, stronger confidence, EU funds and still low base effects. Most countries have seen their export/GDP shares rise in the past decade, which increases their ability to take advantage of the current upswing. Many are moving up the value chain. Banking sectors in CESEE are generally on a much stronger footing than a few years ago. However, the old pre-crisis, highly leveraged model reliant on foreign inflows is mostly a thing of the past, meaning that credit growth will be relatively low by historical standards in the coming years. Downside risks to regional growth emanating from local and global factors are significant. In particular, we are worried about a trade war, the exit of major central banks from extraordinarily loose monetary policy, pockets of high corporate and government leverage, east/west EU splits, the undermining of institutional independence in some countries, geopolitical tensions, the Ukraine crisis, and potential spill-overs from a renewed outbreak of volatility in the eurozone, or a Chinese debt crisis. Convergence with Western European income levels will proceed in the long term. However, there is a risk that specialisation in parts of the supply chain where little value is created will condemn the region to a permanent ‘semi-periphery trap’. |
| Keywords: | CESEE, economic forecast, Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, Southeast Europe, Western Balkans, new EU Member States, CIS, Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Romania, Czech Republic, Hungary, Turkey, convergence, overheating, external risks, EU funds, investment, exports, tourism, unemployment, employment, wage growth, unit labour costs, migration, inflation, competitiveness, external debt, public debt, semi-periphery trap, demographics |
| JEL: | E20 F34 G12 O47 O52 O57 P24 P27 P33 P52 |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:fpaper:fc:spring2018&r=tra |
| By: | Beqiraj, Elton; Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni; Di Pietro, Marco; Serpieri, Carolina |
| Abstract: | Applying the Bayesian approach, a small open economy DSGE model was estimated using a sample of quarterly data for a macro-region formed by six Central Europe and Baltic economies: Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Lithuania, Poland, and Slovakia. Estimates have been employed to investigate the effects of a financial crisis, exploring the role played by country differences in the relative performances. We also use our Bayesian estimations to compute two measures of resilience in the considered region. |
| Keywords: | resilience,Bayesian estimations,financial crisis,macroeconomic performance,emerging markets |
| JEL: | E02 E32 E58 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:175242&r=tra |
| By: | Peter Havlik (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Vladimir Putin’s presidency will last until 2024 – longer than most other Russian or Soviet leaders ruled. This Policy Note provides a brief review of past economic developments and reform attempts. We argue that past reforms have in effect failed yet the main economic challenges currently facing Russia remain essentially the same as two decades ago excessive dependence on energy, lack of diversification, poor investment climate, corruption, etc. What has changed is the resort to assertive behaviour and inward-looking economic policies which replaced the European integration vector prevalent at the beginning of the 2000s. We argue that without normalisation of external relations, there will be no breakthrough in the vicious circle of sanctions, protectionism, and lack of investments and economic integration. Otherwise, Russia will likely face not only economic stagnation, but even the risk of economically falling behind the peers in the East, South and West – ultimately endangering the social and eventually even political stability at home and in the neighbourhood. |
| Keywords: | Russia, Vladimir Putin, economic reforms, economic integration |
| JEL: | E6 F4 O4 O5 |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:pnotes:pn:20&r=tra |
| By: | Hampl, Mojmir; Havranek, Tomas |
| Abstract: | In this paper we take stock of the evidence concerning the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the productivity of locally owned firms in the Czech Republic. To this end, we collect 332 estimates previously reported in journal articles, working papers, and PhD theses. We find that the mean reported externality arising for domestic firms due to the presence of foreign firms (the “FDI spillover”) is zero. There is no evidence of publication bias, i.e., no sign of selective reporting of results that are statistically significant and show an intuitive sign. Nevertheless, we find that the overall spillover effect is positive and large when more weight is placed on estimates that conform to best-practice methodology. Our results suggest that, as of 2018, a 10-percentage-point increase in foreign presence is likely to lift the productivity of domestic firms by 11%. The effect is even larger for joint ventures, reaching 19%. |
| Keywords: | Foreign direct investment; productivity; spillovers; meta-analysis |
| JEL: | C83 F23 O12 |
| Date: | 2018–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:84895&r=tra |
| By: | Chen, Yang (Division of Economics, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University); Luan, Fushu (Division of Economics, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University); Regis, Paulo José (Division of Economics, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University) |
| Abstract: | We contribute to explore the roles of sub-national leaders and institutional environment in shaping urban innovation in China. We adopt a dynamic production function framework using a panel dataset comprising 280 prefecture cities during 2001-2014. We find that knowledge and education boost local innovative outputs and has positive spillover effects; the externalities of domestic and foreign capital are limited to local investments. Controlling for the basic production inputs, our analysis unveils a clear and significant role of meritocracy with regional dimension in sharpening the competitive advantage of city innovativeness measured by patents applications. Party secretary competition intensity and tenure encourages innovation while city mayor turnover rate has a negative effect. Marketization intensity also positively links with urban innovation. Compared with diversity and specialization, competitive industrial structures bring more creative elements into regional knowledge and idea production. |
| Keywords: | Innovation, Meritocracy, Institutions, Prefecture-Level City, China |
| JEL: | H11 R11 O30 P26 C33 |
| Date: | 2018–02–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:xjt:rieiwp:2018-03&r=tra |
| By: | Marta Bengoa; Christopher Rick |
| Abstract: | Access to social services in China is connected to a system of household registration (Hukou system) determined by place of origin with difficult geographical transferability. As a consequence, a vast majority of rural-to-urban migrants do not have access to public health services in urban areas. This paper examines if restrictions on healthcare provisions—that are due to restrictions on migration and Hukou registration—are linked to poorer health for rural-to-urban migrants compared with non-migrant urban residents. We use data from two waves of the Longitudinal Survey on Rural Urban Migration in China that provide data on self-reported health and objectively measured health indicators – blood pressure and grip strength. Results indicate that even after accounting for migrant’s characteristics that have known impacts on health, such as income, education, sex, marital status, and being underweight, the effect of the Hukou restriction policy is large, significantly negative, and acts as a key predictor of why rural-to-urban migrants’ health deteriorates, especially during the early years since migration. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2018-28&r=tra |
| By: | Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - AgroParisTech - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Hoai Son Nguyen (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - AgroParisTech - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement) |
| Abstract: | Access to clean and affordable energy for all is the seventh sustainable development goal. This manuscript examines the state of access to electricity for all in Vietnam, based on national households’ surveys conducted in the time period 2008-2014. We find that in Vietnam, the problem of providing access to clean energy for all is largely solved for now: the fraction of households without access to electricity is below two percent, the median level of electricity usage in 2014 was 100 kWh per month per household, the fraction of households declaring unsatisfied electricity needs is below three percent. We find that electricity is becoming a heavier burden in Vietnamese households’ finances. In 2010, the electricity bill exceeded 6% of income for 2.4% of households, but in 2014 that number reached 5.5% of households. In practical terms, we discuss the challenge of a socially just increase of electricity tariff, necessary to finance a clean development of energy system. Our theoretical contribution to debates on energy poverty is to account for the human dimension by using a self-reported satisfaction indicator. Our study shows that subjective energy poverty indicators –designed from surveys asking people if they had enough electricity to meet their households needs– are as relevant as objective indicators –from engineering or economic data. While objectivity is laudable, development is not only about technology and money: measuring human satisfaction matters. |
| Keywords: | Electricity,Vietnam,Sustainable Development Goals,Indicators |
| Date: | 2018–01–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:ciredw:hal-01692453&r=tra |
| By: | Sergey Vlasov (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Elena Deryugina (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation) |
| Abstract: | The paper covers the theoretical and practical issues related to estimating fiscal multipliers for the Russian economy. The analysis of the main determinants affecting the size of multipliers suggests a relatively low effect of changes in fiscal variables on output growth. Estimation of the general government revenue and spending multipliers are generally in line with these expectations as well as with the results available for emerging market economies and stands at the values of - 0.75 and 0.28 respectively. The negative direct impact on GDP growth from the medium-term fiscal consolidation is estimated as relatively small (cumulatively about 0.3 percentage points through 2018-2020). Fiscal consolidation scheduled for the medium-term is expected to have a negative impact on output. However, since it is intended to be carried out mainly at the expense of the expenditure part of the budget, this should be less harmful to output growth and could promote greater efficiency in public spending. The direct impact from a reduction in expenditures can be fully offset by a significant positive indirect impact on GDP from an increase in confidence about long-term fiscal sustainability. |
| Keywords: | E62, H20, H50, O47 |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bkr:wpaper:wps28&r=tra |
| By: | Jan Rutkowski; Katarzyna Salach; Aleksander Szpor; Konstancja Ziolkowska |
| Abstract: | 4.6 million people in Poland live in energy poverty. In order to significantly reduce the scale of this problem, more effective and better addressed public policy instruments are needed. We propose three new instruments. First, targeted fuel allowance, aimed at alleviating the symptoms of energy poverty. Second, advisory services and energy saving improvements. Third, thermal retrofit coupled with professional energy counselling. The latter two instruments are meant to eliminate the causes of energy poverty. Thermal retrofit is the most expensive but the most effective tool. Developing a mechanism for practical identification of energy poor households is a major challenge. It is to be tackled by local governments, especially social assistance centres. |
| Keywords: | energy poverty, public policy |
| JEL: | I32 Q40 |
| Date: | 2018–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ibt:ppaper:pp012018&r=tra |
| By: | Ngoc Thi Minh Tran (University of Waikato); Michael P. Cameron (University of Waikato); Jacques Poot (University of Waikato) |
| Abstract: | Previous research has shown that institutions matter in decisions regarding migration. This paper extends investigation of the role of institutional quality in migration to the return intentions of international migrants. Using data from a web-based survey that we conducted in OECD countries in 2016, we examine both micro-level and macro-level determinants of the intentions to repatriate among Vietnamese migrants. The results of our logistic regression analysis suggest that those migrants who attach greater importance to the institutional quality in Viet Nam are less likely to have the intention to return than other Vietnamese migrants. However, there is considerably heterogeneity by gender. The concern about institutional quality in Viet Nam is only statistically significant for males. Nonetheless, our findings underscore the necessity of institutional reforms in Viet Nam to encourage return migration for development. |
| Keywords: | institutional quality; international migration; return intentions; Viet Nam |
| JEL: | F22 O15 |
| Date: | 2018–03–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wai:econwp:18/04&r=tra |
| By: | Vasilev, Aleksandar |
| Abstract: | We introduce an environmental dimension into a real-business-cycle model augmented with a detailed government sector. We calibrate the model to Bulgarian data for the period following the introduction of the currency board arrangement (1999-2016). We investigate the quantitative importance of utility-enhancing environmental quality, and the mechanics of environmental ("carbon") tax on polluting production, as well as the effect of government spending on pollution abatement over the cycle. In particular, a positive shock to pollution emission in the model works like a positive technological shock, but its effect is quantitatively very small. Allowing for pollution as a by-product of production improves the model performance against data, and in addition this extended setup dominates the standard RBC model framework, e.g., Vasilev (2009). |
| Keywords: | Business cycles,pollution,environmental quality,environmental tax,abatement spending |
| JEL: | E32 C68 Q58 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:175648&r=tra |
| By: | Zhang, Chengsi; Dang, Chao |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the empirical validity of the claim that China employed a forward-looking monetary policy rule from 2001 to 2016. Survey expectations are used in conjunction with competing money supply and interest rate rules. The paper contributes to the literature by addressing the problems of serial correlation and structural breaks in the underlying policy reaction function. Un-like earlier studies indicating a strong role for expectations in Chinese monetary policy, we find expectations only began to play a significant role after 2008. This finding is robust for expectations series based on surveys of both households and forecasting experts. We also find that the People’s Bank of China promotes economic growth in procyclical fashion, but applies countercyclical policy in managing inflation. |
| JEL: | E58 E31 |
| Date: | 2018–02–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bof:bofitp:2018_006&r=tra |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | A technical assistance (TA) mission was conducted by the government finance statistics (GFS) advisor for South East Europe1 during October 26–27 2016, to support the Bosnia and Herzegovina authorities, with a specific focus on the Republic of Srpska (RS), in improving GFS for decision making. This mission was conducted within the context of the second phase of the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs GFS capacity building project. The mission met with officials from the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Srpska (MOF RS) and the Republic of Srpska Institute of Statistics (RZS). |
| Date: | 2018–02–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:18/49&r=tra |
| By: | Vasilev, Aleksandar |
| Abstract: | This paper characterized optimal fiscal policy - with environmental taxes, and public spending on abatement - in the presence of pollution, and evaluated it relative to the exogenous (observed) one in Bulgaria, an economy with a largely unreformed and polluting industry. The results are evaluated in light of the optimal environmental taxation of dirty production and the optimal spending on abatement, and the effect of those fiscal measures on the utility-enhancing environmental quality. To this end, a dynamic general-equilibrium model is calibrated to Bulgarian data (1999-2016). The main findings from the computational experiments performed are: (i) The optimal steady-state income tax rate is zero; (ii) The benevolent Ramsey planner provides twenty percent higher utility-enhancing environmental quality; (iii) The optimal level of carbon taxes is almost three times higher, and the optimal level of abatement spending is six times higher; (iv) The optimal steady-state consumption tax is twice lower. |
| Keywords: | Ramsey policy,pollution,environmental tax,environmental quality |
| JEL: | C68 Q58 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:175661&r=tra |
| By: | Torsten Ehlers; Steven Kong; Feng Zhu |
| Abstract: | We develop a stylised shadow banking map for China with the aim of providing a coherent picture of its structure and the associated financial system interlinkages. Five key characteristics emerge. One defining feature of the shadow banking system in China is the dominant role of commercial banks, true to the adage that shadow banking in China is the "shadow of the banks". Moreover, it differs from shadow banking in the United States in that securitisation and market-based instruments play only a limited role. With a series of maps we show that the size and dynamics of shadow banking in China have been changing rapidly. This reveals a marked shift in the relative importance of different shadow banking activities. New and more complex "structured" shadow credit intermediation has emerged and quickly reached a large scale, while the bond market has become highly dependent on funding channelled through wealth management products. As a result, the structure of shadow banking in China is growing more complex. |
| Keywords: | shadow banking, wealth management products (WMPs), investment receivables, entrusted loans, trust loans |
| JEL: | G2 |
| Date: | 2018–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:701&r=tra |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | A technical assistance (TA) mission was conducted by Mr. Deon Tanzer, the government finance statistics (GFS) advisor for South East Europe1 during the period February 27–March 1, 2017, to support the Bosnia and Herzegovina authorities, with a specific focus on the Republic of Srpska (RS), in improving GFS for decision making. This mission was conducted within the context of the second phase of the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) GFS capacity building project. The mission met with officials from the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Srpska (MOF RS) and the Republic of Srpska Institute of Statistics (RZS). The mission would like to thank the staff of the national institutions for their courtesy and willingness to share their knowledge with the mission. It is especially grateful to the staff of the MOF RS for their invaluable assistance in organizing the mission (see Appendix I for the list of officials met during the mission). |
| Date: | 2018–02–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:18/51&r=tra |
| By: | Kolcunova, Dominika; Havranek, Tomas |
| Abstract: | The paper focuses on the estimation of the effective lower bound for the Czech National Bank's policy rate. The effective lower bound is determined by the value below which holding and using cash would be more convenient than deposits with negative yields. This bound is approximated based on storage, the insurance and transportation costs of cash and the costs associated with the loss of the convenience of cashless payments and complemented with the estimate based on interest charges, which present direct costs to the profitability of the bank. Overall, the estimated value is below -1% and is approximately in the interval -1.6%, -1.1%. In addition, by means of a vector autoregression, we show that the potential of negative rates would not be sufficient to deliver monetary policy easing with effects similar to those of the exchange rate commitment. |
| Keywords: | effective lower bound; zero lower bound; negative interest rates; costs of holding cash; transmission of monetary policy |
| JEL: | E43 E44 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2018–02–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:84725&r=tra |
| By: | Yulia Ushakova (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Dmitry Chernyadyev (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the impact of the Russia-specific shocks of 2014 on the short-term real equilibrium interest rate. We have used two approaches. The first approach is based on theoretical model calculations. The second rests on empirical estimates based on the results of IMF cross-country research on the sensitivity of the equilibrium interest rate to shifts in investment demand and supply (savings) curves. Our estimates suggest that the 2014 financial shock that restricted external borrowing for Russian issuers triggered 0.6-1.4 pp growth of the short-term equilibrium interest rate. However, the economy adjusted to the financial shock in 2016-2017 thanks to the macroeconomic policy pursued: the CDS risk premium declined, investment resumed growth and the net investment position gradually decreased. As a result, the effect of the financial shock on the short-term equilibrium interest rate has almost entirely vanished Length: 13 pages |
| Date: | 2017–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bkr:wpaper:note11&r=tra |
| By: | Bihary, Zsolt; Dömötör, Barbara |
| Abstract: | We explain the diversity of corporate hedging behavior in a single model. The hedging ratio is obtained by maximizing expected utility that is a combination of the corporate level utility and a component that models the incentives of the financial manager. We derive a theoretical model that gives back the classic result of the literature if the financial manager has no other incentive than to maximize corporate utility. In the case the financial manager expects that his evaluation will be based exclusively on the financial profit (the profit of the hedging transactions), being risk averse, he decides not to hedge at all. The hedging ratio depends on the weight of these contradictory effects. We test our theoretical results on Hungarian corporate survey data. |
| Keywords: | corporate hedging, corporate utility, manager incentives |
| JEL: | F13 G32 G34 |
| Date: | 2018–02–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cvh:coecwp:2018/01&r=tra |
| By: | Hoai-Son Nguyen (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - AgroParisTech - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, CleanED - Clean Energy and Sustainable Development Lab - USTH - University of sciences and technologies of hanoi, ABIES Doctoral School); Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - AgroParisTech - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, CleanED - Clean Energy and Sustainable Development Lab - USTH - University of sciences and technologies of hanoi) |
| Abstract: | Household electricity consumption potentially offers economies of scale, since lighting, cooling or cooking can be shared among household members. This idea needs to be tested empirically. Under an increasing block tariff schedule the marginal and average price of electricity increases with total consumption. Does this effect offset economies of scale in the larger families? This paper uses data from Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey (VHLSS) in 2010, 2012 and 2014 to investigate whether there are economies of scale for Vietnam household electricity consumption in that period. The data will be tested formally by an OLS model and checked robustness by visualization of local linear regressions. Estimated results and robustness check confirm that in general, economies of scale do exist for household electricity consumption in Vietnam from 2010-2014. |
| Keywords: | electricity use,increasing block tariffs,household economies of scale |
| Date: | 2018–02–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:ciredw:hal-01714899&r=tra |
| By: | Axenciuc, Victor; Georgescu, George |
| Abstract: | Starting from the importance and need to investigate one of the most relevant issues regarding the structure and dynamics of the economic and social development of all countries in the world, the book focuses on Romania, from the perspective of certain synthetic indicators, aggregated at macroeconomic level, i.e. the Gross Domestic Product and the National Income, on long data series over the past 150 years, also taking into account the comparative international context, in terms of purchasing power parity. The Part One contains a synthesis, developed and completed, of GDP data for each year of the period 1862 – 2010 and also indicators resulting from the GDP, as Net Domestic Product, Net National Product and National Income. The historical research has adopted and applied, with maximum attention, criteria that substantiated the calculations, through rigorous techniques and methods of data aggregation, in order to remove certain errors that would lead to distorted results, focusing on the accuracy of evaluations, so that they would express, in the most genuine manner, the real dimension of the statistical indicators, allowing for a correct interpretation of the economic phenomena. The operations for compiling the indicators are accompanied by comments regarding the criteria and calculation methods, as well as by methodological explanations, so that the data would be able to be rebuilt in a better format, by the interested authors, should they have a more reliable and relevant statistical information about Romania. The Part Two of the book focuses on the international literature, dedicated to criticisms theoretical and methodological opinions regarding the GDP, as well as a comparative analysis of the GDP evolution in Romania, in various hypotheses, compared to other countries. |
| Keywords: | System of National Accounts; International Comparison Program; wellbeing; GDP criticism; Romania. |
| JEL: | B15 B41 C82 E01 N10 O11 |
| Date: | 2017–10–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:84614&r=tra |
| By: | Marko Crnogorac; Santiago Lago-Peñas |
| Abstract: | This article estimates tax evasion in all Former Yugoslavian countries during the last two decades. The scarcely available fiscal and national accounts data only allow an estimate of tax evasion based on data on the shadow economy. Nevertheless, the contribution of this paper to the existing literature is unique since tax evasion is estimated for the first time for some of the countries. We also estimate evasion of some single taxes. Lastly, we derive implications for the control of tax evasion and observed tax collections. |
| Keywords: | Tax evasion, Yugoslavia. |
| JEL: | H26 |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gov:wpaper:1811&r=tra |
| By: | Svetlana Popova (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Natalia Karlova (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Alexey Ponomarenko (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Elena Deryugina (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation) |
| Abstract: | This work provides an analysis of the debt burden of Russian companies and raises the issue of debt-level heterogeneity across economic sectors. In order to identify the causes of this heterogeneity, we estimated a regression model that included both the fundamental explanatory variables of companies and industry fixed effects. The results of the analysis demonstrated that standard variables such as profitability, company size, asset turnover and fixed-asset turnover ratio have a strong statistical significance. However, these do not fully explain the variation in the debt levels of companies in different sectors. According to model estimation, there are industry specific factors that produce an imbalance between fundamental factors and companies' debt levels. An understanding of the formation process and structure of debt burden in individual industries is extremely important for the financial stability of companies, and effective monetary policy. |
| Keywords: | debt burden, capital structure, sector analysis, microdata of Russian companies, emerging markets. |
| JEL: | C23 D24 E44 G32 |
| Date: | 2018–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bkr:wpaper:wps29&r=tra |
| By: | Ofer Malamud; Andreea Mitrut; Cristian Pop-Eleches |
| Abstract: | This paper examines a schooling expansion in Romania which increased educational attainment for successive cohorts born between 1945 and 1950. We use a regression discontinuity design at the day level based on school entry cutoff dates to estimate impacts on mortality with 1994-2016 Vital Statistics data and self-reported health with 2011 Census data. We find that the schooling reform led to significant increases in years of schooling and changes in labor market outcomes but did not affect mortality or self-reported health. These estimates provide new evidence for the causal relationship between education and mortality outside of high-income countries and at lower margins of educational attainment. |
| JEL: | I1 I12 I15 I25 |
| Date: | 2018–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24341&r=tra |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | In response to a request for IMF technical assistance (TA) made by the Ministry of Finance (MOF) of the Republic of Srpska (RS), Bosnia and Herzegovina, a TA mission on government finance statistics (GFS) visited Banja Luka, Bosnia and Herzegovina, during June 27–July 1, 2016. It was the fourth mission to Bosnia and Herzegovina and the first mission to the RS to be conducted under the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs-GFS capacity building project. The main objective of the mission was to assist the MOF of the RS in the compilation and dissemination of GFS in accordance with the guidelines of the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 (GFSM 2014) and the European System of Accounts (ESA 2010). |
| Date: | 2018–02–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:18/50&r=tra |
| By: | Marques II, Israel |
| Abstract: | When does business support the expansion of social policy in the developing world? Existing work on managers’ preferences has tended to concentrate on the developed world, where governments can credibly commit to policy, tax evasion is constrained, and mechanisms exist to hold the bureaucracy accountable for policy implementation. In this paper, I relax these assumptions, arguing that weak institutions create opportunities for some firms to shift costs onto others: making social policy more attractive. I argue that firms with political connections are uniquely positioned to benefit from subsidies and property rights protection, which decreases the cost of social policy, while firms with low visibility can evade taxes and free-ride off universalistic social policy. Such firms will support social policy even where institutions are poor. I test this argument using a survey of 666 firms in 10 Russian regions. |
| JEL: | L21 L33 O15 H53 |
| Date: | 2018–02–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bof:bofitp:2018_007&r=tra |
| By: | Varela, Liliana (University of Warwick, University of Houston, CEPR and CAGE,); Salomao, Juliana (University of Minnesota) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a firm-dynamics model with endogenous currency debt composition to study financing and investment decisions in developing economies. In our model, foreign currency borrowing arises from a trade-off between exposure to currency risk and growth. There is cross-sectional heterogeneity in these decisions in two dimensions. First, there is selection into foreign currency borrowing, as only productive firms employ it. Second, there is heterogeneity in firms’ share of foreign currency loans, driven by their potential growth. We assess econometrically the pattern of foreign currency borrowing using firm-level census data on Hungary, calibrate the model and quantify its aggregate impact. |
| Keywords: | firm dynamics foreign currency ; debt ; currency mismatch ; uncovered interest rate parity |
| JEL: | F30 F34 F36 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1157&r=tra |