nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2018‒03‒05
28 papers chosen by
J. David Brown
United States Census Bureau

  1. Are Eastern European Taylor Reaction Functions Asymmetric in Inflation or Output: Empirical Evidence for four Countries By Jens Klose
  2. Tax corruption and private sector development in Vietnam By Nguyen, Ngoc Anh; Doan, Quang Hung; Tran-Nam, Binh
  3. An Expanded Decomposition of the Luenberger Productivity Indicator with an Application to the Chinese Healthcare Sector By Jean-Philippe Boussemart; Gary D. Ferrier; Hervé Leleu; Zhiyang Shen
  4. People’s Republic of China; Financial Sector Assessment Program- Detailed Assessment of Observance of the Iosco Objectives and Principles of Securities Regulation By International Monetary Fund
  5. Republic of Serbia; Eighth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Serbia By International Monetary Fund
  6. Republic of Belarus; 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Belarus By International Monetary Fund
  7. Republic of Moldova; Article IV Consultation and Second Reviews under the Extended Fund Facility and Extended Credit Facility Arrangements-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Moldova By International Monetary Fund
  8. People’s Republic of China; Financial Sector Assessment Program- Detailed Assessment of Observance of the Insurance Core Principles By International Monetary Fund
  9. Bosnia and Herzegovina; Technical Assistance Report-Government Finance Statistics Mission By International Monetary Fund
  10. A Single Economic Entity of Chinese SOEs: EDF/CGN/NNB Group of Companies merger case (2016) (Japanese) By TAKEDA Kuninobu
  11. Unraveling the economic performance of the CEEC countries. The role of exports and global value chains By Jan Hagemejer; Jakub Muck
  12. Bank ownership and profit efficiency of Russian banks By Belousova, Veronika; Karminsky, Alexander; Kozyr, Ilya
  13. Федеральное агенство развития. Оно необходимо для разработки и реализации успешных стратегий By Polterovich, Victor
  14. Bosnia and Herzegovina; Technical Assistance Report-Government Finance Statistics Mission By International Monetary Fund
  15. Can climate mitigation help the poor? Measuring impacts of the CDM in rural China By Yimeng Du; Kenji Takeuchi
  16. Republic of Kosovo; 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Kosovo By International Monetary Fund
  17. People’s Republic of China; Financial Sector Assessment Program- Detailed Assessment of Observance of Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision By International Monetary Fund
  18. SMEs and Start-Ups. Importance and Support Policies in European Union and Romania By Herte, Anamaria Diana
  19. The involvement in global value chains and its policy implication in Vietnam By Taguchi, Hiroyuki
  20. Bosnia and Herzegovina; Technical Assistance Report-Government Finance Statistics Mission By International Monetary Fund
  21. From window guidance to interbank rates : Tracing the transition of monetary policy in Japan and China By Angrick, Stefan; Naoyuki, Yoshino
  22. The Inter-generational Fertility Effect of an Abortion Ban: Understanding the Role of Inherited Wealth and Preferences By Gutierrezy, Federico H.
  23. Bosnia and Herzegovina; Technical Assistance Report-Government Finance Statistics Diagnostic Mission-Institutional Units and Public Sector Debt By International Monetary Fund
  24. Bosnia and Herzegovina; Technical Assistance Report-Government Finance Statistics Mission By International Monetary Fund
  25. Empirical Evidence on the Effectiveness of Capital Buffer Release By Sivec, Vasja; Volk, Matjaz; Chen, Yi-An
  26. German FDI in the Czech Republic - Employment effects in the home country By Schäffler, Johannes; Moritz, Michael
  27. Mongolia; First and Second Reviews Under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Mongolia By International Monetary Fund
  28. Bayesian Linear Estimation of Okun Coefficient for Romania: Sensitivity to Priors By KORI YAHIA, Abdellah

  1. By: Jens Klose (THM Business School)
    Abstract: Do central banks in Eastern European countries react asymmetrically and in a non-linear fashion to changes in inflation and output? We tackle this question by expanding the standard Taylor reaction function for the four inflation targeting countries Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania. We do so taking explicitly inflation rates below or above target and output below or above potential, the so-called state of the economy, into account. The results reveal that there are indeed substantial asymmetries in the reaction function of the Czech, Polish and Romanian central bank, which are only evident when the combination of inflation and output thresholds is explicitly modelled in one estimation equation. For these three central banks also non-linearities in the inflation and output response could be verified.
    Keywords: Taylor reaction function, Asymmetries, Eastern European countries
    JEL: E52 E58
    Date: 2018
  2. By: Nguyen, Ngoc Anh; Doan, Quang Hung; Tran-Nam, Binh
    Abstract: This article aims to examine the impact of tax corruption on private sector development in Vietnam. It is motivated by two separate but related considerations. First, despite the seriousness of the phenomenon of corruption, there is a paucity of rigorous empirical research of corruption, particularly tax corruption, in Vietnam. Secondly, ineffective control of corruption is viewed as a cause of Vietnam’s recent total factor productivity (TFP) slowdown or its poor industrial policy, both of which may hamper Vietnam’s progress as a low middle-income country. Without some understanding on the impact of tax corruption on the economy, it may not be possible to devise the most effective anti-corruption policy and measures. After a brief literature review that focuses on tax corruption, various conceptual issues relating to tax corruption are discussed and clarified. The extent of petty tax corruption in Vietnam is then discussed, followed by a review of findings and implications of recent studies on how tax corruption impacts on private sector development in Vietnam. Despite perceptions and evidence of widespread petty tax corruption, Vietnam ranks very highly both in terms of tax collection and tax effort.Not unexpectedly, the impact of tax corruption is mixed in the sense that empirical evidence lends credence to both 'sanding the wheels' and 'greasing the wheels' hypotheses. Finally, some broad policy recommendations for combating tax corruption are offered.
    Keywords: tax corruption, unofficial/informal payments, private sector, Vietnam
    JEL: H20 H26 H29
    Date: 2017–12
  3. By: Jean-Philippe Boussemart (University of Lille 3 and IÉSEG School of Management (LEM 9221-CNRS)); Gary D. Ferrier (University of Arkansas); Hervé Leleu (CNRS-LEM 9221 and IÉSEG School of Management); Zhiyang Shen (Eximbank, Anhui University of Finance and Economics)
    Abstract: Productivity growth is an important determinant of the economic well-being of producers, consumers, and society overall. Given its importance, economists have long measured productivity growth, often decomposing the overall measure into constituent pieces to isolate and better understand the sources of productivity change. Typically, productivity change is analyzed at a single level of analysis—e.g., a firm or a country. The objective of this research is to combine productivity analysis at the “firm-level” and the “industry-level” so that a novel, fuller decomposition of the sources of productivity change can be undertaken. Specifically, our decomposition allows us to capture changes in productivity due to the reallocation of inputs or outputs across productive units. In practice, such reallocation might take place across plants operated by the same firm, across regions within a country, or via mergers and acquisitions. By shedding light on more dimensions of productivity growth, this expanded decomposition may facilitate policy development and other efforts to improve productivity. The expanded decomposition begins with a standard decomposition of the aggregate Luenberger productivity indicator into its technical progress and efficiency change components. The efficiency change component is then further decomposed into technical, mix, and scale efficiency effects. The decomposition yielding the mix and scale efficiency changes uses both aggregated and disaggregated data, which allows for productivity effects of reallocations of inputs and outputs across members of a group to be measured. The new decomposition of the aggregate Luenberger productivity indicator is illustrated using data at both the provincial and regional levels for China’s healthcare sector over the period 2009-2014. Given the rapid growth in the Chinese healthcare sector in recent years and the various healthcare reforms initiated by the government, a deeper understanding of productivity in this traditionally low-productivity sector is warranted. Our results indicate that the growth of the aggregate Luenberger productivity indicator varied across both time and regions; the annual average growth rates were 0.73%, 0.53%, and 0.18% for China’s Central, Eastern, and Western regions, respectively. We find that China’s regional productivity growth in healthcare was primarily driven by technological progress; the contributions of the efficiency related elements of productivity change were smaller and more varied across regions.
    Keywords: Luenberger Productivity Indicator; Chinese Healthcare; Structural Efficiency; Scale Efficiency; Mix Efficiency
    Date: 2017–11
  4. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: The authorities’ vision of ensuring that the capital markets support China’s transformation towards a more market-oriented economy has driven capital markets development and—as the authorities recognize—the regulation and supervision of the markets. In some areas the specific characteristics of the market combined with the vision of capital markets development have prompted the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), as the main regulator of the securities markets, to adopt different approaches to the regulation and supervision of the market than those adopted in other large markets. At times such an approach has encountered challenges and the balance between market development and stability has been difficult to strike. Moving to more market-based solutions should allow the markets to work more efficiently but this should be done in a carefully sequenced way.
    Keywords: Asia and Pacific;
    Date: 2017–12–26
  5. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Recent economic developments. Notwithstanding some temporary supply shocks, economic activity remains robust, supported by recovery of private consumption and strong FDI. Significant fiscal over-performance has continued and efforts to address structural weaknesses have been accelerated. This, along with a healthy credit recovery on the back of substantial monetary policy easing, has helped support growth, while low inflation has reinforced recovery in real incomes. Public debt has fallen notably and external vulnerabilities are reduced.
    Keywords: Europe;Serbia;
    Date: 2017–12–21
  6. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: The Belarusian economy is recovering after two years of recession, helped by a more favorable external environment, better policies, and stronger domestic demand conditions. Near-term external financing pressures have eased following energy and financing agreements with Russia and a Eurobond issuance. Although key macroeconomic and financial policy frameworks have improved somewhat, much work lies ahead to support the authorities’ ambitious economic objectives through 2020 without increasing imbalances, and to reduce vulnerabilities. External and public debt are high, medium-term financing needs are significant, and corporate and bank balance sheets are weak. Key structural reforms in the real sector are proceeding at a gradual pace amidst a desire to preserve the state’s strong role in the economy and support of the existing social system. Policy recommendations.
    Keywords: Europe;Belarus;
    Date: 2017–12–18
  7. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Following the 2014 crisis, Moldova has experienced a period of relative economic and financial stability, but still faces significant challenges. Growth has returned, inflation pressures have been contained, and fiscal performance has improved. Financial sector rehabilitation is underway, but further steps are needed to strengthen banks’ governance and balance sheets, which are critical to restore credit growth. Faster growth is needed if Moldova is to lift per capita income, which is the lowest in the region. • To accelerate growth and improve living standards while maintaining macroeconomic stability, policies should continue to focus on: (i) decisively strengthening the banking sector to facilitate deeper financial intermediation; (ii) bolstering the inflation targeting framework to help improve the transmission mechanism, while continuing to allow for exchange rate flexibility; (iii) maintaining fiscal discipline, while providing for growth-friendly priority public investment and safeguarding debt sustainability; and (iv) advancing structural reforms for sustainable and inclusive growth.
    Date: 2017–12–21
  8. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: The Chinese insurance sector is experiencing rapid growth, posing particular challenges to effective supervision. The sector has been growing by over 20 percent a year and there are ambitious government targets for further development. Many individual, often newer, companies are growing at rates far in excess of the average. New entrants, products and distribution channels, combined with the liberalization of pricing, have increased competition. At the same time, slower economic growth and reduced investment returns are exposing many established life insurers to the risk of loss due to the rising value of their liabilities. Many non-life companies are moving into new lines of business as margins in established lines erode. While their customers continue to benefit from a dynamic market, there are risks to insurance companies’ business models, performance and to solvency as well as risks of misconduct in the treatment of insurance customers. There are particular challenges for insurance supervisors to remain abreast of developing risks, while continuing to strengthen the regulatory and supervisory system for the longer term.
    Keywords: Asia and Pacific;
    Date: 2017–12–26
  9. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: In the context of the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO)-funded government finance statistics (GFS) project for selected Southeastern European countries, a technical assistance (TA) mission visited Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), during the period of April 20–May 1, 2015. This mission was the second in a series of three missions to BiH to be conducted under the SECO GFS capacity building project, and this built upon the work previously carried out during the recent missions in April 2014 and January 2015. The main objective of this second TA mission was to assist the statistical authorities of BiH with setting up a register of public sector units and further enhancing the debt data based on the framework of the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 (GFSM 2014) and European System of National and Regional Accounts (ESA 2010). The mission met with officials from the Central Bank of BiH (CBBH), BiH Agency for Statistics (BHAS), Republika Srpska (RS) Institute of Statistics (RZS), Institute of Statistics of the Federation of BiH (FZS), Ministry of Finance (MOF) of the Federation of BiH, and the Ministry of Finance of the RS.
    Date: 2018–02–06
  10. By: TAKEDA Kuninobu
    Abstract: EDF/CGN/NNB Group of Companies (2016) has made a great impact on mergers and acquisitions conducted in the European Union (EU) of Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs), particularly those controlled by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC). With respect to the calculation of turnovers by the Chinese SOEs concerned—China General Nuclear Power Group (CGN)—the Commission, for the first time, considered CGN and other energy-sector SOEs as a single economic entity, thereby accumulating in the number of turnovers of these SOEs. If the Commission continues to hold the same position, numerous mergers concerning Chinese SOEs will be reviewed under EU merger regulations. This paper studies how EU merger regulations grasp SOEs as a single economic entity, and how that standard was applied in the EDF/CGN/NNB Group of Companies case.
    Date: 2018–01
  11. By: Jan Hagemejer; Jakub Muck
    Abstract: In this study we assess the importance of exports and global value chains (GVC) participation for economic growth. Using novel methods and an extensive dataset, we decompose GDP growth in the Central and Eastern European (CEEC) countries to show that in a large part of the period of transition and integration with the EU, exports have played a predominant role in shaping economic growth. We also show that exports have been the major factor driving the convergence of the CEEC countries with their advanced counterparts. We employ panel methods to analyze the determinants of growth of exported value added and show that the major growth drivers in the analyzed period of 1995-2014 are GVC participation, imports of technology and capital deepening.
    Keywords: economic growth, international trade, GVC, heterogeneous panels, common correlated effects estimation, CEEC
    JEL: C23 F21 O33
    Date: 2018–02
  12. By: Belousova, Veronika; Karminsky, Alexander; Kozyr, Ilya
    Abstract: The paper examines how the type of ownership affects the profit efficiency of Russian banks. Using bank-quarter data for selected banks in the period 2004–2015, we combine stochastic frontier anal-ysis (SFA) methodology with an intermediary approach to assess profit efficiency. Our key findings show that foreign-owned banks are the most efficient, followed by state-owned banks and private domestic banks. We also find that the profit efficiency of foreign-owned banks was higher than that of other banks during the economically stable periods of 2004Q1 to 2008Q2 and 2014Q1 to 2015Q3, and that state-owned banks were more efficient than others in the period of financial turmoil from 2008Q3 to 2013Q4 due to state support. These results are robust when we consider these banks in terms of branch network diversity, risk preferences, and specialization.
    JEL: G21 P34 P5
    Date: 2018–02–22
  13. By: Polterovich, Victor
    Abstract: It is shown that in the success of catching-up development, an important role was played by special structures - general development agencies- that coordinated the activities of ministries and offices. The functions of such agencies are considered, the main tasks that the similar Russian Federal Development Agency (FDR) should solve, are described. The creation in late 2016 of the Department of Project Activities of the Government Office of the Russian Federation can be considered as the first stage of the creation of FDR. A number of further steps are proposed for its formation.
    Keywords: catch-up development, economic growth, indicative planning, long-term strategy, system of projects, national innovation system, technology transfer
    JEL: L52 O21 O25 P11 P21
    Date: 2018–01–23
  14. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: 1. A technical assistance (TA) mission was conducted by the government finance statistics (GFS) advisor for South East Europe1 during October 3–5, 2016, to support the authorities of Bosnia and Herzegovina in improving GFS for decision making. This mission was conducted within the context of the second phase of the Swiss Secretariat for Economic Affairs GFS capacity building project. The mission met with officials from the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina (CBBH) and the Bosnia and Herzegovina Agency for Statistics (BHAS). 2. Reliable GFS are essential for analyzing and evaluating fiscal policy, especially the performance of the general government sector and the broader public sector of any economy, by the authorities, economists, and the broader public. GFS may also be informative to compilers and users of other macroeconomic statistics in understanding the relations between the various sets of macroeconomic statistics, in particular, to compilers of the national accounts who may depend on GFS as an input to their work.
    Date: 2018–02–06
  15. By: Yimeng Du (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University); Kenji Takeuchi (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University)
    Abstract: This study aims to examine whether investment in climate change mitigation plays a role in poverty alleviation. We investigate impacts of the renewable energy-based clean development mechanism (RE-CDM) on rural communities in China. The impacts of RE-CDM projects are estimated by combining propensity score matching with the difference-in-differences approach. We found that the promotion of biomass-based CDM projects significantly contribute to income improvement, employment generation, and industrial transformation in rural communities in China. On the other hand, our estimation results reveal that large-scale wind and solar energy-based CDM projects have the potential to increase the labor force in the primary industry in rural areas.
    Keywords: CDM; renewable energy; poverty alleviation; rural development; propensity score matching; difference-in-differences
    Date: 2018–02
  16. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Kosovo has made significant progress since the 2015 Article IV consultation in ensuring fiscal discipline, strengthening the financial sector, and enhancing growth. Notwithstanding this progress, important structural challenges remain. Weak external competitiveness, high informality, low labor force participation and high unemployment, particularly among young workers, and a large infrastructure gap continue to constrain Kosovo’s growth potential.
    Date: 2018–02–04
  17. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: The China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) has maintained its momentum in regulation and supervision in the face of exceptional growth in scale and increasing complexity of the banking system. Equally, the CBRC has risen to the demands of the international regulatory reform agenda, delivering timely revisions to its body of regulations and maturing its supervisory practices through investing in essential new skills, enhancing methodologies, and broadening its interactions with the industry. In this context, the clarity of supervisory requirements and expectations communicated to the industry is a strength of the CBRC. Recent organizational reforms, in 2015, building on other internal reforms, will serve the CBRC well in delivering its supervisory mandate. While pursuit of financial stability is recognized as fundamentally important, concerns must be acknowledged as to whether the CBRC would, in practice, always be able to act on its primary, stability, objective, especially if government policies, whether focused growth and expansion, or social protection, conflicted with prudential considerations.
    Keywords: Asia and Pacific;
    Date: 2017–12–26
  18. By: Herte, Anamaria Diana
    Abstract: Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are considered as being the engine of the European economy. They lead to job creation and economic growth, guaranteeing social stability. Nine out of ten enterprises are SMEs, which generate two out of three new jobs. SMEs also stimulate entrepreneurship and innovation, and are therefore very important for boosting competitiveness and employment. Given their importance to Europe's economy, SMEs are a major objective of the European Union's policy. The European Commission has as its major aim to promote entrepreneurship and improve the business environment for SMEs by enabling them to fully realize their potential in today's globalized economy by giving them the opportunity to access funds through various programs. This paper contains some definitions and interpretations of SMEs and start-ups and aims to outline their importance in the contemporary economy as well as their support policies.
    Keywords: SMEs; Start-up concepts and policies, EU, Romania
    JEL: E60 M21
    Date: 2017–11–23
  19. By: Taguchi, Hiroyuki
    Abstract: This article examines the involvement pattern in global value chains (GVCs) with its policy implication in Vietnam, in comparison with those of the other Asian countries, by using the OECD value-added-trade data. The study first identified the “smile curve” as the average pattern of the Asian GVCs development paths in total manufactures, in which the domestic value share to exports declines at the early development stage and regains itself at the later stage with the turning point being at 2,015 US dollars as per capita GDP. The study then found that the Vietnamese economy stood at the critical position in its GVCs development path, such that the Vietnamese current per capita GDP is very close to 2,015 US dollars, the Asian average turning point in total manufactures. The sectoral analysis in Vietnam also implied that sophisticated manufacturing sectors needs to be transformed from only assembling activities toward developing domestic capacities to produce parts and components. The Government policies in Vietnam thus matter to nurture local productive capacities, and the “enterprise clustering” and “linkages development” should be the key strategies to facilitate technological transfers from international firms to local ones in line with the GVCs involvement.
    Keywords: Global value chains, Vietnam, Value-added-trade data, Manufactures, Local productive capacities
    JEL: F14 L60 O53
    Date: 2018–02
  20. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: In the framework of the second phase of the Swiss Sate Secretariat of Economic Affairs (SECO) government finance statistics (GFS) capacity building project, a technical assistance (TA) mission on GFS, conducted by Mr. Léonard Haakman, visited Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, during April 24–28, 2017. The mission was a follow-up of previous TA missions to Bosnia and Herzegovina in the context of the SECO project during the period 2015–17. The main objective of the TA mission was to further assist the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina (CBBH) with the compilation of GFS in accordance with the guidelines of the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 (GFSM 2014) and the European System of National and Regional Accounts 2010 (ESA 2010).
    Date: 2018–02–06
  21. By: Angrick, Stefan; Naoyuki, Yoshino
    Abstract: Monetary policy in most major economies has traditionally focused on control of the interbank interest rate to achieve an inflation target. Monetary policy in transition economies, in contrast, relied on a mixed system of price-based and quantity based instruments and targets. Japanese monetary policy up to the 1990s was based on such a mix, and echoes of this system are today found in China’s monetary policy set-up. We explore the transition of these two monetary policy regimes historically and quantitatively with institutional comparison and Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) models. Specifically, we examine the role of the interbank rate and “window guidance,” a policy by which authorities use “moral suasion” to communicate target quotas for lending growth directly to commercial banks. In Japan’s case, we compile historical statistics on window guidance from newspapers and industry sources. For China, we apply Romer–Romer text analysis and computational linguistic techniques to policy reports to quantify information on window guidance.We empirically demonstrate the declining effectiveness of quantity measures and the increasing importance of price measures. We end with a policy assessment of managing the transition of monetary policy from a quantity-based system to a price-based system.
    JEL: E5 E52 E58
    Date: 2018–02–21
  22. By: Gutierrezy, Federico H.
    Abstract: This paper studies to what extent banning first-generation women from aborting affected the fertility of second-generation individuals who did not face such legal constraint. Using multiple censuses from Romania, I follow men and women born around the 1966 Romanian abortion ban to study the demand for children over their life cycle. The empirical approach combines elements of the regressions discontinuity design and the Heckman's selection model. Results indicate that second-generation individuals whose mothers were affected by the ban had a significantly lower demand for children. One-third of such decline is explained by inherited socio-economic status and two-thirds presumably by preferences.
    Keywords: intergenerational fertility transmission,fertility preferences,Romania,abortion ban
    JEL: J13 O15 P36
    Date: 2018
  23. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: In close consultation with the Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) authorities and with strong support from the IMF’s European Department, a three-day government finance statistics (GFS) technical assistance (TA) assessment mission was conducted by the IMF’s Statistics Department during January 12–14, 2015. The mission was financed by the government of Switzerland through the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs and is part of an 18-month GFS capacity development project for selected Southeastern European countries. Under this project, a series of three missions to BiH are envisioned over 16 months; this mission was the first. The main objective of this first TA mission was to assess the current GFS compilation environment in BiH, particularly the classification of institutional units and debt data compilation based on the Government Finance Statistics Manual (GFSM 2014) and European System of National and Regional Accounts (ESA 2010) frameworks. Building on work carried out during the April 2014 GFS TA mission, the mission met with officials from the Ministry of Finance (MoF), Agency for Statistics of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BHAS), and the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina (CBBH) to explore current compilation processes, identify gaps/weaknesses, and develop a country specific plan for BiH (see implementation plan and Appendix I).
    Date: 2018–02–06
  24. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: In response to a request for IMF technical assistance made by the Bosnia and Herzegovina authorities and in consultation with the European Department (EUR), a government finance statistics (GFS) technical assistance (TA) mission from the Statistics Department (STA) visited Sarajevo during April 7–April 18, 2014. This activity 13STF68 is undertaken within the context of the following project: Government finance statistics STA_BIH_2008_04. The main objective of the mission was to continue to assist the Central Bank of Bosnia Herzegovina (CBBH) in the compilation and dissemination of GFS in accordance with the guidelines of the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001 (GFSM 2001) and its update (GFSM 2014). The mission focused on the compilation of a financial balance sheet. Another important topic of the mission was the extension of quarterly GFS tables to also include local government data.
    Date: 2018–02–06
  25. By: Sivec, Vasja; Volk, Matjaz; Chen, Yi-An
    Abstract: With the new regulatory framework, known as Basel III, policymakers introduced a countercyclical capital buffer. It subjects banks to higher capital requirements in times of credit excess and is released in a financial crisis. This incentivizes banks to extend credit and to buffer losses. Due to its recent introduction empirical research on its effects are limited. We analyse a unique policy experiment to evaluate the effects of buffer release. In 2006, the Slovenian central bank introduced a temporary deduction item in capital calculation, creating an average capital buffer of 0.8% of risk weighted assets. It was released at the start of the financial crisis in 2008 and is akin to a release of a countercyclical capital buffer. We estimate its impact on bank behaviour. After its release, firms borrowing from banks holding 1 p.p. higher capital-buffer received 11 p.p. more in credit. Also we find the impact was greater for healthy firms, and it increased loan-loss provisioning for firms in default.
    Keywords: countercyclical capital buffer, macroprudential policy, credit, loan loss provisions
    JEL: G01 G21 G28
    Date: 2018–01–02
  26. By: Schäffler, Johannes; Moritz, Michael (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])
    Abstract: "Do investments in the Czech Republic lead to employment growth or employment losses in the German firms involved? To address this question, a unique database about German firms with foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Czech Republic and firms without FDI in any country has been established within the IAB-ReLOC project. By developing a new method for linking firm-level data with establishment-level data of the Institute for Employment Research (IAB), this database is now linked with the IAB employment data. As the exact dates of the investments in the Czech Republic are known, the employment development of firms with Czech affiliates and firms without FDI is compared for the same time periods. The analysis shows that the two observation groups actually develop differently. In the years after the investment, the employment of multinational enterprises (MNEs) in the home country shrinks relative to the employment of the reference group (non-MNEs). The negative trend continues for up to five years. However, not all types of jobs are affected adversely. The downward trend refers to medium- and low-skilled workers only, whereby the demand for high-skilled workers even increases after the investment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
    JEL: J23 F23
    Date: 2018–02–20
  27. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: A three-year arrangement for Mongolia under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) was approved on May 24, 2017, in an amount equivalent to SDR 314.5054 million (435 percent of quota, or approximately $425 million). The arrangement forms part of a $5.5 billion multi-donor financing package that supports the authorities’ program of policy adjustment and structural reforms to stabilize the economy and lay the basis for sustainable, inclusive growth. The extended arrangement is subject to quarterly reviews though, because of delays, this is a combined first and second review.
    Keywords: Mongolia;Asia and Pacific;
    Date: 2017–12–21
  28. By: KORI YAHIA, Abdellah
    Abstract: I use the Bayesian approach in order to derive an estimation of Okun coefficient for Romania. The data used is at quarterly frequency and it consists in the unemployment rate and GDP between 2000 and 2009. I use three different priors, a normal one, a beta prior and a uniform prior for the parameter associated to the Okun coefficient. The results indicate an Okun coefficient around -0.20, with the prior distributions having a mild effect on posterior mean results.
    Keywords: dynamic linear models, Bayesian techniques, unemployment, Okun coefficient, simulation techniques;
    JEL: C51
    Date: 2018–01–07

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