nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2018‒02‒05
28 papers chosen by
J. David Brown
United States Census Bureau

  1. The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on the Economic Development in the Eurasian Region. By Ketenci, Natalya
  2. Higher Education in Poland: Budgetary Constraints and International Aspirations By Dorota Dakowska
  3. Retreat from mandatory pension funds in countries of the Eastern and Central Europe in result of financial and fiscal crisis: Causes, effects and recommendations for fiscal rules By Bielawska, Kamila; Chłoń-Domińczak, Agnieszka; Stańko, Dariusz
  4. The role of China in the world economy: evidence from global VAR model By Anna Sznajderska
  5. Amenities and Geography of Innovation: Evidence from Chinese Cities By Zhang, Min; Partridge, Mark; Song, Huasheng
  6. Religiosity and life satisfaction in Russia: Evidence from the Russian data By Bryukhanov, Maksym; Fedotenkov, Igor
  7. Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports in the run-up to the EMU accession By Łukasz Goczek; Dagmara Mycielska
  8. Cooperation of vocational colleges and enterprises in China: Institutional foundations of vocational education and skill formation in nursing and mechanical engineering - Preliminary findings By Müller, Armin
  9. “How do unemployed workers behave prior to retirement? A multi-state multiple-spell approach” By Ewa Galecka-Burdziak; Marek Góra
  10. Clustering, Growth, and Inequality in China By Guo, Di; Jiang, Kun; Xu, Cheng-Gang; Yang, Xiyi
  11. Structural Budget Balances in Oil-Rich Countries: The Cases of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Russia By Vugar Ahmadov; Ulvi Sarkarli; Ramiz Rahmanov
  12. From taxing to subsidizing farmers in China Post-1978 By Kym Anderson
  13. Where Are Migrants From? Inter- vs. Intra-Provincial Rural-Urban Migration in China By Yaqin Su; Petros Tesfazion; Zhong Zhao
  14. The Welfare Effects of Encouraging Rural-Urban Migration By David Lagakos; Mushfiq Mobarak; Michael Waugh
  15. The Welfare Effects of Encouraging Rural-Urban Migration By David Lagakos; Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak; Michael E. Waugh
  16. Wage Inequality and structural change By Joanna Tyrowicz; Magdalena Smyk
  17. Market of the Novosibirsk Oblast in the System of Regional Markets By Gluschenko, Konstantin
  18. China Needs Better Credit Data to Help Consumers By Martin Chorzempa
  19. China's "Great Migration'': The impact of the reduction in trade policy uncertainty By Facchini, Giovanni; Liu, Maggie Y.; Mayda, Anna Maria; Zhou, Minghai
  20. Selected Aspects of Social Cooperatives in Poland By Albert Izdebski; Tomasz Mering; Malgorzata Oldak; Ryszard Szarfenberg
  21. Determinants of low inflation in an emerging, small open economy. A comparison of aggregated and disaggregated approaches By Karol Szafranek; Aleksandra Hałka
  22. Is there a housing bubble in China By Tianhao Zhi; Zhongfei Li; Zhiqiang Jiang; Lijian Wei; Didier Sornette
  23. Choosing Right from Wrong: Industrial Policy and (De)industrialization in Central and Eastern Europe By Nebojsa Stojcic; Zoran Aralica
  24. To License or Sell: A Study on the Patent Transaction Modes in China By Naubahar Sharif
  25. The concentration and bank stability in Central and Eastern European countries By Renata Karkowska; Małgorzata Pawłowska
  26. Will China Avoid the Middle-Income Trap? By Zhou, Haiwen
  27. Sources of productivity differentials in manufacturing in post-transition urban South-East Europe By Katarina Bacic; Ivana Rasic Bakaric; Suncana Slijepcevic
  28. Labor reallocation and demographics By Joanna Tyrowicz; Lucas van der Velde

  1. By: Ketenci, Natalya
    Abstract: This study presents an empirical analysis of the impact of the global financial crisis on the economic development of the Eurasian region. The region covers fifteen states of the former Soviet Union: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russian Federation, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan. Emerging economies of estimated countries are highly attractive for foreign investors, who stimulate economic growth in the region. This paper particularly investigates the relationship between economic growth and international capital flows in the Eurasian region before and after the global financial crisis. Panel estimations using annual data for the period 1990-2014 are made applying the Generalized Method of Moments estimation technique for the dynamic panel data, developed by Hansen (1982). Empirical results reveal that the main determinant of the regions’ economic development is FDI inflow. This study finds evidence that after the global financial crisis, economic growth in the region becomes more responsive to capital flows compared to the pre-crisis period.
    Keywords: Economic growth, capital flows, generalized method of moments (GMM), Eurasia, dynamic panel data.
    JEL: F43
    Date: 2017
  2. By: Dorota Dakowska (TRIANGLE - Triangle : action, discours, pensée politique et économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: The case of Central and Eastern European Countries – especially Poland – invites us to reconsider the temporal and political aspects of the reconfiguration of Higher Education with regard to austerity measures. The financial crisis of 2007/2008 cannot be viewed as the main trigger of this sector’s redesign, for two main reasons. First, the Polish economy has not been hit by this economic turmoil as hard as some West European countries. Secondly, the structural austerity measures which have affected the country’s public sector followed the 1989 fall of the Communist regime and the ‘shock therapy’ implemented by the first democratic governments. These neo-liberal policy measures set up in the beginning of the 1990s have led to a far-reaching privatisation of Higher Education. Still, 2007 appears as a caesura, as the new liberal government undertook several important measures to reform the Higher Education systems in the name of competitiveness, diversification and excellence.
    Keywords: Academic profession,Neo-liberalism,academic work,competitiveness,austerity,Poland,Higher Education
    Date: 2017
  3. By: Bielawska, Kamila; Chłoń-Domińczak, Agnieszka; Stańko, Dariusz
    Abstract: The aim of this book is to assess in various dimensions the causes and effects of the reduction of mandatory pension funds in selected countries of Central-Eastern Europe and to propose changes to existing fiscal rules so that they could respond to the challenge of population ageing impact on public finances. We review the changes made in 2008-2011 in the multi-pillar pension systems CEE region: Hungary, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Bulgaria, Slovakia and Romania. All of these countries in the course of late 1990s and early 2000s introduced multi-pillar pension systems that replaced traditional PAYG ones. All countries are also EU member states and are subject to the European policy with regards to the coordination of economic government including public finance situation. However, as analysis reveals they have different social and economic contexts, relevant from the pension systems’ perspective. We make a comprehensive assessment of consequences of limiting the role of funded pillar in societies’ pension security of selected countries of Central and Eastern Europe from macro perspective (public finance) and micro perspective (pension levels of individuals), also combining the two approaches. This helped to determine the costs and benefits of current developments in the short and long term for various stakeholders. The book comprises of seven chapters. The first chapter presents the design and changes in the multi-pillar pension systems in the CEE countries in the light of their public finance situation and broader socio-economic context. Chapter 2 analyses how the pension fund markets functioned due to the pension changes introduced recently by the governments. Chapter 3 makes an assessment of the short-term effects of reduction of pension funds sectors on the public finance situation and the public pension system in each of the analysed countries. Chapter 4 analyses the impact of changes in pension system on the level of pension wealth of individuals. Chapter 5 provides an assessment of the long-term impact of changes in funded systems for the stability of public finances and pension systems. Chapter 6 presents the recommendations on how to strike the balance between fiscal tensions and the need to maintain the role of pension funds in developing sustainable and adequate pensions in the future. The last chapter summarises the findings of the project with regards to the formulated hypotheses. The authors gratefully acknowledge the financing of this project by the National Science Centre, the decision number DEC-2012/05/B/HS4/04206.
    Keywords: pension reforms, reversals, funded pensions, pension funds, CEE countries, mandatory pension funds, stability of public finances, stability of pension systems, public finance, performance evaluation
    JEL: E6 E62 G23 H53 H55 I38 J1
    Date: 2017
  4. By: Anna Sznajderska (Warsaw School of Economics, Narodowy Bank Polski)
    Abstract: Since the 1980’s China has experienced very high economic growth and its share in global trade has increased rapidly. Nowadays, however, the Chinese economy is rebalancing and its growth is slowing. The paper investigates the spillover effects of a negative demand shock and negative stock price shock in the Chinese economy on other countries. We apply a GVAR model, that enables us to model international linkages between countries. Our results show that a one percent negative China GDP shock reduces global growth by 0.22% in the short run. We find that GDP shock affects emerging economies more strongly than advanced economies. We also show that stock prices shock affects only emerging economies and does not affect advanced economies.
    Keywords: global VAR, China’s slowdown, spillovers
    JEL: C32 E32 F10 O53
    Date: 2017
  5. By: Zhang, Min; Partridge, Mark; Song, Huasheng
    Abstract: People increasingly value amenities as their living standards improve. While the past thirty years have witnessed significant income growth in China, the role of amenities is less discussed. This paper fills the gap by investigating how amenities shape the geography of innovation in China. The empirical results based on city-level data suggest that both natural and consumer amenities are positively associated with regional innovation. Specifically, amenities related to temperature comfort, air quality, sunshine, educational resources and healthcare services matter most. Further, the analysis suggests the influence of amenities on innovation is closely linked with city characteristics such as income, density, and human capital. Therefore, to formulate innovation-driven growth, more attention should be paid to the role of amenities and amenity-related strategies should be tailored to city characteristics.
    Keywords: natural amenities, consumer amenities, innovation, regional economy
    JEL: O31 Q55 R1
    Date: 2018–01–05
  6. By: Bryukhanov, Maksym; Fedotenkov, Igor
    Abstract: Does religiosity make you happy? Many studies document positive associations between religiosity and various forms of subjective wellbeing. This is also true for general life satisfaction in normal economic conditions and in the case of economic shocks. However, both life satisfaction and religiosity may be correlated with unobserved individual and household traits or unobserved life shocks which can relate to reverse causality. These facts result in endogeneity and make ordinary least square estimates biased. In our study, we employ two methods to avoid possible endogeneity issues – we use fixed effects and instrumental variable estimations. Using Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS-HSE) data and different econometric models, we document positive associations between religiosity and life satisfaction. In particular, fixed effect and instrumental variable regressions provide evidence for a positive effect of religiosity.
    Keywords: Life satisfaction; religiosity; RLMS-HSE; endogeneity; Russia.
    JEL: D10 Z12
    Date: 2017–10–15
  7. By: Łukasz Goczek (University of Warsaw); Dagmara Mycielska (University of Warsaw)
    Abstract: According to theory of monetary integration, lower exchange rate variability is believed to be the main positive effect of a common currency. However, empirical studies do not confirm this negative and significant impact of exchange rate volatility on trade. In this report, we analyze the relationship between the exchange rate volatility and the export performance of Central and Eastern European non-euro EU countries: Poland, Czechia, Hungary, and Romania. We use monthly frequency data on export flows to the euro area and the European Union. The sample covers the period from 2000M1 till 2015M6 and we control for the financial crisis of 2008-2009 when exchange rate variability increased considerably. We measure exchange rate volatility using traditional standard deviation approach and GARCH models. The main hypothesis is verified using both aggregated data and sectoral trade data. The effects of euro exchange rate volatility on Polish trade are explored with more focus by estimating a series of vector error correction models and by assessing impulse-response functions. For the panel data estimation, we employ second generation dynamic panel cointegration model with PMG estimator. The results suggest that the elimination of the exchange rate volatility through euro adoption will not necessarily increase the export performance of the countries integrating with the euro area.
    Keywords: exchange rate volatility, exports, EMU, GARCH, cointegration, PMG estimator
    JEL: F14 F15
    Date: 2017
  8. By: Müller, Armin
    Abstract: In the context of the ongoing transformation of China's economic development model, the central government under Xi Jinping announced a general upgrading of China's skill-formation system. The initiative is part of a larger strategy to avoid the middle income trap and move towards a high-skill route of development. One of the core challenges in this respect is to consolidate the cooperation of enterprises and vocational schools and colleges, and to couple the realms of education and employment more tightly. The aim of this paper is to analyze these issues in the institutional context of state-permeated capitalism from the perspective of actor-centered institutionalism. By conducting a structured and focused comparison of the fields of nursing and mechanical engineering in two vocational colleges in Eastern China, it identifies important factors facilitative to reforms. The nursing case illustrates that bureaucratic integration and a dominance of the public sector facilitate the cooperation of schools and enterprises and the coupling of education and employment. Here, hierarchical steering can reinforce cooperation and couple education and employment via vocational qualification certificates. The fragmentation of bureaucratic authority and marketization, on the other hand, require new patterns of cooperation and coupling. The case of mechanical engineering illustrates the potential of well-performing education facilities to attract cooperation partners without direct state support, and of industry associations to play an intermediary role between schools and companies, and to develop new vocational qualifications geared to companies' requirements. The case study design focuses on areas of vocational education with high incentives for cooperation and good material conditions. The preliminary results indicate that the generally negative assessment of China's TVET system in the literature may be somewhat too pessimistic, and that a more differentiated analysis is needed.
    Keywords: China,vocational education,vocational colleges,skill formation,nursing,mechanical engineering
    Date: 2017
  9. By: Ewa Galecka-Burdziak (Warsaw School of Economics); Marek Góra (Warsaw School of Economics and IZA Bonn)
    Abstract: We examine the behaviour of unemployed older workers up to five years prior to the point at which they can transition out of unemployment because they become eligible to receive pension benefits. We use a unique dataset covering the unemployment histories (longitudinal data) of individuals born between 1940 and 1965 who were registered with any of the public employment offices in Poland. Thus, we study a whole population of individuals who experienced this type of transition over the time period 1996-2015. We examine the transition from unemployment to retirement as a multi-year process. We analyse multiple unemployment spells, identify transition pathways, and look for patterns in these transitions. Moreover, we estimate a conditional risk set model (a stratified Cox model). Our research proves that being close to the point at which they are eligible to receive pension benefits leads individuals ‘wait’ to fulfil these eligibility criteria.
    Date: 2018–01
  10. By: Guo, Di; Jiang, Kun; Xu, Cheng-Gang; Yang, Xiyi
    Abstract: This study examines the effects of China's industrial clusters on its economic growth and urban-rural income inequality. A density-based index (DBI) is developed to capture the unique features of such clusters in China. From a county-level DBI panel data constructed based on firm-level and county-level datasets, we find that strong clusters and entrepreneurial clusters substantially enhance economic growth. Moreover, entrepreneurial clusters reduce urban-rural income inequality by increasing the income of rural residents. Identification issues are carefully addressed by deploying an instrumental variable approach.
    Keywords: China; clustering; Geography; growth and inequality; institutions
    JEL: D2 H7 O1 R1 R3
    Date: 2017–12
  11. By: Vugar Ahmadov (Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan); Ulvi Sarkarli (Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan); Ramiz Rahmanov (Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan)
    Abstract: This study aims to analyse the discretionary fiscal policy of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Russia for the period 2003-2015 using the structural budget balance (SBB). The SBB considers the permanent component of oil revenue and therefore clearly defines the discretionary fiscal position and the aggregate demand effect of fiscal policy. The SBBs in Azerbaijan and Russia experience a deficit for most of the analysed period. A moderate SBB surplus is observed in Kazakhstan. The estimated SBBs also demonstrate that fiscal policies tend to be mainly pro-cyclical in Kazakhstan and Russia. Azerbaijan conducted a counter-cyclical fiscal policy for half of the investigated period. Moreover, governments placed more importance on economic stabilization in 2009 due to the global financial crisis.
    Keywords: fiscal policy, structural budget balance, oil-rich countries, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russia
    JEL: E62 H60
    Date: 2018–01
  12. By: Kym Anderson
    Abstract: This paper has three purposes: to document the pace and extent to which China’s policy regime has transitioned over the past four decades from taxing to subsidizing its farmers relative to its producers of other tradable goods; to present projections of the world economy to 2030 that suggest China will continue to become more food import-dependent under current policies and productivity growth rates; and to explore alternative policy instruments for remaining food secure and ensuring that farmers are not losers from economic growth. The data used to estimate the extent of distortions to producer incentives come from freely available World Bank and OECD sources that allow direct comparisons of China’s policy developments with those of more- and less-advanced economies. The estimates reveal that China has made the transition from negative to positive assistance to farmers far faster than the average developing country, and almost as fast as its Northeast Asian neighbours did in earlier decades at similar levels of real per capita incomes. That has helped to ensure China remained food self-sufficient during the first two decades of reform. However, food self-sufficiency is now declining and is projected to continue to do so over the next decade under current policies. Preventing food self-sufficiency from declining further by increasing agricultural protection is now unnecessary thanks to the information and communication technology revolution that enables the government to use conditional cash transfers to directly support the adjustment and well-being of poor farm households.
    Keywords: agricultural support policies, China’s economic growth, food security, multiple exchange rates
    JEL: F13 F14 Q17 Q18
    Date: 2017
  13. By: Yaqin Su (Hunan University); Petros Tesfazion (Central College); Zhong Zhao (Renmin University of China)
    Abstract: Using a representative sample of rural migrants in cities, this paper investigates where the migrants in urban China come from, paying close attention to intra-provincial vs. inter-provincial migrants, and examining the differences in their personal attributes. We find that migrants who have come within the province differ significantly from those who have come from outside of the province. Using a nested logit model, we find that overall, higher wage differentials, larger population size, higher GDP per capita, and faster employment growth rate are the attributes of a city that attract migrants from both within and outside province. In addition, moving beyond one’s home province has a strong deterrent effect on migration, analogous to the “border effect” identified in international migration studies. We also explore the role of culture, institutional barrier, and dialect in explaining such a pronounced “border effect”.
    Keywords: rural-urban migration, China, border effect, inter- vs. intra-provincial migration
    JEL: J62 O15
    Date: 2018–01
  14. By: David Lagakos (University of California, San Diego); Mushfiq Mobarak (Yale University); Michael Waugh (New York University)
    Abstract: This paper studies the welfare effects of encouraging rural-urban migration in the developing world. To do so, we build a dynamic incomplete-markets model of migration in which heterogeneous agents face seasonal income fluctuations, stochastic income shocks, and disutility of migration that depends on past migration experience. We calibrate the model to replicate a field experiment that subsidized migration in rural Bangladesh, leading to significant increases in both migration rates and consumption for induced migrants. The model’s welfare predictions for migration subsidies are driven by two main features of the model and data: first, induced migrants tend to be negatively selected on income and assets; second, the model’s non-monetary disutility of migration is substantial, which we validate using newly collected survey data from this same experimental sample. The average welfare gains are similar in magnitude to those obtained from an unconditional cash transfer, and greater than from policies that discourage migration, though migration subsidies lead to larger gains for the poorest households, which have the greatest propensity to migrate.
    Keywords: rural-urban migration
    JEL: J61 O11
    Date: 2018–01
  15. By: David Lagakos; Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak; Michael E. Waugh
    Abstract: This paper studies the welfare effects of encouraging rural-urban migration in the developing world. To do so, we build a dynamic incomplete-markets model of migration in which heterogenous agents face seasonal income fluctuations, stochastic income shocks, and disutility of migration that depends on past migration experience. We calibrate the model to replicate a field experiment that subsidized migration in rural Bangladesh, leading to significant increases in both migration rates and in consumption for induced migrants. The model’s welfare predictions for migration subsidies are driven by two main features of the model and data: first, induced migrants tend to be negatively selected on income and assets; second, the model’s non-monetary disutility of migration is substantial, which we validate using using newly collected survey data from this same experimental sample. The average welfare gains are similar in magnitude to those obtained from an unconditional cash transfer, though migration subsidies lead to larger gains for the poorest households, which have the greatest propensity to migrate.
    JEL: J61 O11
    Date: 2018–01
  16. By: Joanna Tyrowicz (Institute for Labour Law and Industrial Relations in the European Union IAAEU), Trier University); Magdalena Smyk (Group for Research in Applied Economics)
    Abstract: Income inequality in the context of large structural change has received a lot of attention in the literature, but most studies relied on household post-transfer inequality measures. This study utilizes a novel and fairly comprehensive collection of micro data sets from between 1980’s and 2010 for both advanced market economies and economies undergoing transition from central planning to market based system. We show that wage inequality was initially lower in transition economies and immediately upon the change of the economic system surpassed the levels observed in advanced economies. We find a very weak link between structural change and wages in both advanced and post-transition economies, despite the predictions from skill-biased technological change literature. The decomposition of changes in wage inequality into a part attributable to changes in characteristics (mainly education) and a part attributable to changes in rewards does not yield any leading factors
    Keywords: wage inequality, structural change, transition, skill biased technological change
    JEL: E24 D31 N34 O57 P36 P51
    Date: 2018–01
  17. By: Gluschenko, Konstantin
    Abstract: This paper studies integration of the Novosibirsk Oblast market for final goods with markets of all other Russian regions. It considers an aggregated market represented by a basket of basic foods (staples basket). The law of one price serves as the criterion of market integration. It is the base for constructing time series models of the regional costs of the staples basket over 2001–2015 relative to its cost in the Novosibirsk Oblast. Regional markets are divided into four groups: perfectly integrated with the Novosibirsk Oblast market, conditionally integrated with it, not integrated but tending towards integration, and neither integrated nor tending towards integration. Nonlinear time series models with asymptotically decaying trends describe the movement towards integration (price convergence).
    Keywords: market integration law of one price price convergence nonlinear trend Russian regions
    JEL: C32 L81 P22 R15
    Date: 2018–01–05
  18. By: Martin Chorzempa (Peterson Institute for International Economics)
    Abstract: Formidable barriers stand between the modern financial system and the hundreds of millions of Chinese citizens still using costly informal credit. For many, the financial data that could be used to give them a credit score that would lead to a fair priced loan exist but are not being used. This analysis finds that the most difficult barriers cutting these data off from their potential use for greater financial inclusion are the legal and political restrictions on data sharing and use, economic and competitive concerns from data holders, and the technical difficulty of integrating disparate systems. Policies that encourage coordination between public authorities and private actors in finance and technology can go a long way towards making these data available and driving access to credit in China. This shift would not only help borrowers: It would also encourage the needed economic rebalancing towards consumption, increase competition in the financial sector, raise efficiency through better credit allocation, and contribute to sustainable economic growth and social welfare.
    Date: 2018–01
  19. By: Facchini, Giovanni; Liu, Maggie Y.; Mayda, Anna Maria; Zhou, Minghai
    Abstract: We analyze the effect of China's integration into the world economy on workers in the country and show that one important channel of impact has been internal migration. Specifically, we study the changes in internal migration rates triggered by the reduction in trade policy uncertainty faced by Chinese exporters in the U.S. This reduction is characterized by plausibly exogenous variation across sectors, which we use to construct a local measure of treatment, at the level of a Chinese prefecture, following Bartik (1991). This allows us to estimate a difference-in-difference empirical specification based on variation across Chinese prefectures before and after 2001. We find that prefectures facing the average decline in trade policy uncertainty experience an 18 percent increase in their internal in-migration rate -- this result is driven by migrants who are ``non-hukou", skilled, and in their prime working age. Finally, in those prefectures, working hours of ``native'' unskilled workers significantly increase -- while the employment rates of neither native workers nor internal migrants change.
    Keywords: Hukou; Immigration; internal migration; Trade policy uncertainty
    JEL: F22 J61 O15
    Date: 2018–01
  20. By: Albert Izdebski; Tomasz Mering; Malgorzata Oldak; Ryszard Szarfenberg
    Abstract: The paper describes the characteristics of social cooperatives in Poland, which constitute an important element of the national sector of social entrepreneurship. Social cooperatives are non-profit organizations that combine economic activity with the social and professional reintegration of their members. The paper puts particular emphasis on the presentation of the social and economic potential of the social cooperatives sector in Poland. The paper presents the results of the monitoring of social cooperatives in Poland, which was carried out in 2015. It is the most comprehensive study that has been carried out among social cooperatives so far, which facilitated the acquisition of the comprehensive statistical information concerning the aforementioned sector. Additionally, the study presents contextual information concerning the legal and institutional conditions in relation to the functioning of social cooperatives in Poland.
    Keywords: Social cooperatives, Poland, Monitoring, Social and economic performance
    JEL: C42 J21 L31 M41
    Date: 2017
  21. By: Karol Szafranek (Narodowy Bank Polski, Warsaw School of Economics); Aleksandra Hałka (Narodowy Bank Polski)
    Abstract: We analyse the determinants of the protracted period of exceptionally low inflation in the emerging, small open economy of Poland. We consider a fairly standard set of macroeconomic variables and establish a structural VAR model estimated using Bayesian methods and disentangle the influence of the global and domestic, supply and demand factors affecting headline and core inflation by means of the mixture of zero and sign restrictions. Next, we extend the analysis on a battery of inflation components and construct inflation indices sensitive to the global and domestic factors. We find that the excessive disinflation has been primarily caused by the deteriorating domestic conditions whilst deflation has resulted from the convolution of waning global demand and plummeting oil prices. Disaggregated analysis corroborates the conclusion of the aggregated approach but reveals considerable heterogeneities in the sensitivity of inflation components to the identified shocks. We conclude that the disaggregated analysis brings important information for the monetary policy conduct.
    Keywords: low inflation, small open economy, Bayesian Vector Autoregression, sign restrictions
    JEL: C32 E31 E52
    Date: 2017
  22. By: Tianhao Zhi (SYU); Zhongfei Li (SYU); Zhiqiang Jiang (ECUST); Lijian Wei (SYU); Didier Sornette (ETH Zurich)
    Abstract: There is a growing concern in recent years over the potential formation of bubbles in the Chinese real estate market. This paper aims to conduct a series of bubble diagnostic analysis over nine representative Chinese cities from two aspects. First, we investigate whether the prices had been significantly deviating from economic fundamentals by applying a standard Engle-Granger cointegration test. Second, we apply the Log-Periodic-Power-Law-Singularity (LPPLS) model to detect whether there is any evidence of unsustainable, self-reinforcing speculative behaviours amongst the price series. We propose that, given the heterogeneity that exists amongst cities with different types of bubble signatures, it is vital to conduct bubble diagnostic tests and implement relevant policies toward specific bubble characteristics, rather than enforcing one-that-fits-for-all type policy that does not take into account such heterogeneity.
    Date: 2018–01
  23. By: Nebojsa Stojcic (University of Dubrovnik, Department of Economics and Business Economics); Zoran Aralica (The Institute of Economics, Zagreb)
    Abstract: Over the past two and a half decades, the economic landscape of Central and Eastern European economies went through several waves of transformation. The demise of traditional industries and the rise of the service sector during the 1990s inclined economic structure towards deindustrialization. The events over the next years paved the way for the rise of new industries in many of these countries and embarked them on the route of reindustrialization. However, in some countries the rise of new industries was more modest and took place at a much slower pace. Such development can be attributed to the process of industrial restructuring as well as industrial policies. The recent rise of awareness about the importance of industrial development for the growth and well-being of nations makes it relevant to investigate the sources behind changes in the economic structure of Central and Eastern European countries. Our findings reveal two groups of CEECs, defined as reindustrializing and those going through deindustrialization. The research identifies loss of competitiveness as the principal driving force of such an outcome. No support was found for horizontal policies. The reindustrialization mainly takes place through productivity improvements in less knowledge and technology intensive activities. Such findings are in line with those on the position of CEECs in global value chains.
    Keywords: CEEC, deindustrialization, reindustrialization, industrial policy
    JEL: L16 D02 C36
    Date: 2017–07
  24. By: Naubahar Sharif (Division of Social Science , The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology; Institute of Emerging Market Studies, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)
    Abstract: Analyzing a unique, previously unavailable, government patent database, this study investigates the determinants of transaction modes (namely to sell, license or retain) of invention and utility model patents in China. The results suggest that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between an invention patent’s quality and the probability of it being licensed out while no relationship exists between a utility model’s quality and the probability of it being transacted. We also find that a firm with economically-motivated patent strategies is less likely to sell its invention patents while a firm with administratively-motivated patent strategies are more likely to transact its patents.
    Date: 2018–01
  25. By: Renata Karkowska (University of Warsaw); Małgorzata Pawłowska (Warsaw School of Economics; Narodowy Bank Polski;)
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to discuss changes in the banking sectors in Central and Eastern European countries, with particular emphasis on the change in market structure, the concentration and the share of foreign capital, in an attempt to determine the relationship between market structure and stability in the period 1999-2015. Using the methodology of panel regression, GMM estimator, we examine the implications of banks’ concentration that manifest themselves as spreading and growing instability. The study contributes to the literature by focusing on a group of countries from Central and Eastern Europe, which are not explain in previous research and they are playing the role of a host country for banks from a number of countries in Europe. Finally, our results reveal that the persistence of risk is affected by the level of bank concentration and this effect is exacerbated during the downturn.
    Keywords: banking, concentration, foreign ownership, stability, CEE countries
    JEL: F36 G2 G21 G34 L1
    Date: 2017
  26. By: Zhou, Haiwen
    Abstract: This paper employs a historical approach to address whether a country can avoid the middle-income trap. The development of the manufacturing sector and technological capacities are important for a country to avoid the middle-income trap. South Korea avoided the middle-income trap through developing the manufacturing sector. Argentina became a middle-income country by exporting agricultural goods and fell victim to the trap. The distribution of political power between state and society affect a country’s capacity to develop technological capabilities. The concentration of power in the government in China is affected by historical factors. With the provision of equal opportunities to all citizens, China will avoid the middle-income trap with her building-up of technological and innovative capacities. The reasoning here can also be used to understand development experiences of other countries.
    Keywords: Middle-income trap, economy of China, political economy, technological capability, economic development
    JEL: O14 O30 O53 P16
    Date: 2017–11–13
  27. By: Katarina Bacic (Knowledge Network Ltd.); Ivana Rasic Bakaric (The Institute of Economics, Zagreb); Suncana Slijepcevic (The Institute of Economics, Zagreb)
    Abstract: The paper analyses the effects of urbanization and localisation economies on manufacturing firms’ productivity across urban landscapes in post-transition South-East European (SEE) countries. Fixed-effects panel data estimations on a large sample of firms show that the factors accounting for productivity advantages of manufacturing firms in urban post-transition SEE are related to the firms and to the environment in which these firms operate. Firms located in diversified cities benefit from a productivity premium generated in this type of agglomeration, while no evidence was found that the relative specialization across industries has any effect on firm productivity levels.
    Keywords: city, manufacturing, total factor productivity, post-transition South-East Europe
    JEL: D24 R00 R12
    Date: 2017–11
  28. By: Joanna Tyrowicz (Institute for Labour Law and Industrial Relations in the European Union IAAEU), Trier University); Lucas van der Velde (Group for Research in Applied Economics and Warsaw School of Economics)
    Abstract: We explore data from all transition economies over nearly two decades, providing insights on the mechanisms behind labor force reallocation. We show that worker ows between jobs in dierent industries are rare relative to the demographic ows of youth entry and elderly exit. The same applies to the ows between state-owned enterprises and private rms. In fact, evidence suggest that changes in the demand for labor were accommodated mostly through demographic ows, with a smaller role left for job transitions. We also show that the speed of changing the ownership structure in the economy has driven exits to retirement, in particular the early exits.
    Keywords: hirings, separations, transition, worker ows, unemployment, retirement
    JEL: P2 P5 D2 J6
    Date: 2018–02

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