nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2018‒01‒29
sixteen papers chosen by
J. David Brown
United States Census Bureau

  1. The impact of non-cognitive skills and risk preferences on rural-to-urban migration: Evidence from Ukraine By Sinem H. Ayhan; Kseniia Gatskova; Hartmut Lehmann
  2. The transformation of post-socialist capitalism – from developmental state to clan state? By Sallai, Dorottya; Schnyder, Gerhard
  3. One-child policy in China : A unified growth analysis By Xue, Jianpo; Yip, Chong K.
  4. International Spillovers of (Un)Conventional Monetary Policy: The Effect of the ECB and US Fed on Non-Euro EU Countries By Jan Hajek; Roman Horvath
  5. Shock Contagion, Asset Quality and Lending Behavior By Tho Pham; Oleksandr Talavera; Andriy Tsapin
  6. School Performance of Chinese Internal Migrants’ Children By Yiwen Chen
  7. From central planning toward a market economy: The role of ownership and competition in Vietnamese firms’ productivity By Fabio Pieri; Le Manh-Duc; Enrico Zaninotto
  8. Permissible collateral and access to finance: evidence from a quasi-natural experiment By Bing Xu
  9. Impacts of Institutions on the Performances of Enterprises in Vietnam By Thi Mai Phuong, Chu
  10. Recent Developments in Trade, Investment and Finance of China’s Belt and Road By Alicia Garcia-Herrero; Jianwei Xu
  11. Risks in China’s financial system By Song, Zheng (Michael); Xiong, Wei
  12. Pricing Carbon Emissions in China By Chia-Lin Chang; Te-Ke Mai; Michael McAleer
  13. Is electricity affordable and reliable for all in Vietnam? By Minh Ha-Duong; Hoai-Son Nguyen
  14. EXPORT AND PRODUCTIVITY IN GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS: COMPARATIVE EVIDENCE FROM LATVIA AND ESTONIA By Konstantins Benkovskis; Jaan Masso; Oleg Tkacevs; Priit Vahter; Naomitsu Yashiro
  15. Управление и оценка на аграрната устойчивост – опит, предизвикателства и уроци от България и Китай By Bachev, Hrabrin; Ivanov, Bojidar; Toteva, Dessislava; Sokolova, Emilia; Terziev, Dimitar; Nikolov, Dimitar; Radeva, Donka; Chopeva, Minka; Li, Hongfei; Che, Shengquan
  16. Forecasting and risk management in the Vietnam Stock Exchange By Manh Ha Nguyen; Olivier Darné

  1. By: Sinem H. Ayhan (University of Münster); Kseniia Gatskova; Hartmut Lehmann
    Abstract: This paper provides evidence on the impacts of non-cognitive skills and attitudes towards risk on the decision to migrate from rural to urban areas. Our analysis is based on a unique four-wave panel of Ukrainian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey for the period between 2003 and 2012. Adopting the Five Factor Model of personality structure, and using it in the evaluation of noncognitive skills, our results suggest that such personality traits as openness to new experience and the willingness to take risks increase the probability of migration. On the other hand, the non-cognitive skills conscientiousness and extraversion are found to be negatively associated with the propensity to migrate. The effects are statistically and quantitatively significant, and mainly driven by movements from rural areas into cities. Our results are robust to several sensitivity checks, including tests for reverse causality.
    Keywords: migration, non-cognitive skills, Big Five, risk attitudes
    JEL: J61 D03 D81 R23
    Date: 2017–09
  2. By: Sallai, Dorottya; Schnyder, Gerhard
    Abstract: Various characterisations exist of the model of post-social capitalism exist. While most typologies underscore the prominent role of the state in post-socialist capitalism compared to Western economies, the literature is less clear about what exactly this role consists of. For the case of East Central Europe, some authors underscore the weakness of the state and its ‘capture’ by business interests, while others attribute to the state a benign role in successful industrial restructuring. We show that both views are of limited use to understand the phase of ‘backsliding’ that these economies are currently experiencing. We draw on anthropological models of post-socialist states that focus on elite dynamics within the state and show that this focus allows us to interpret backsliding in Hungary as a reversal of the developmental state into a clan-state.
    Keywords: State capitalism, political ties, corporate strategies, clan-state, post-socialism, autocracy
    JEL: P16 P26
    Date: 2018–01–12
  3. By: Xue, Jianpo; Yip, Chong K.
    Abstract: This paper examines the effects of China's One Child Policy (OCP) in a stylized unified growth model where demographic change plays a central role. Introducing a population constraint into Galor and Weil (2000) model, our theoretical analysis shows that parents are willing to invest in the education of their children immediately after the OCP intervention. Raising the education level, in turn, boosts rates of technological progress and economic growth over the short run, but the low population mass resulting from the OCP hampers the natural economic evolution. This eventually reduces the education gain and technology growth, retarding economic growth in the steady state. We next calibrate our model to match the key data moments in China. A permanent OCP is found to accelerate economic growth by up to 60% over the short run (40 years, or two generations under our assumed generation length), but depress long-run growth to 6:95% (8:94% under natural evolution). For a temporary OCP lifted after two generations, the economic growth shows an immediate decline of about 27%, followed by a gradual recovery to the steady state under natural evolution. While the OCP reduces welfare, the welfare loss from a temporary OCP is less than that from a permanent OCP. This suggests that the recent decision of the Chinese government to abandon the OCP and move to a two-child policy is likely to improve economic growth and welfare over the long run.
    JEL: J13 O43
    Date: 2017–12–29
  4. By: Jan Hajek (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic; Czech National Bank, Na Prikope 28, 115 03 Prague 1, Czech Republic); Roman Horvath (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic)
    Abstract: We estimate a global vector autoregression model to examine the effects of euro area and US monetary policy stances, together with the effect of euro area consumer prices, on economic activity and prices in non-euro EU countries using monthly data from 2001-2016. Along with some standard macroeconomic variables, our model contains measures of the shadow monetary policy rate to address the zero lower bound and the implementation of unconventional monetary policy by the European Central Bank and US Federal Reserve. We find that these monetary shocks have the expected qualitative effects but their magnitude differs across countries, with Southeastern EU economies being less affected than their peers in Central Europe. Euro area monetary shocks have greater effects than those that emanate from the US. We also find certain evidence that the effects of unconventional monetary policy measures are weaker than those of conventional measures. The spillovers of euro area price shocks to non-euro EU countries are limited, suggesting that the law of one price materializes slowly.
    Keywords: International spillovers, monetary policy, global VAR, shadow rate
    JEL: E52 E58
    Date: 2017–09
  5. By: Tho Pham (School of Management, Swansea University); Oleksandr Talavera (School of Management, Swansea University); Andriy Tsapin (National Bank of Ukraine; National University of Ostroh Academy)
    Abstract: We use the geopolitical conflict in eastern Ukraine as a negative shock to bank assets and examine the shock's impact on the banking sector. We find banks were more severely affected by the conflict if they had more loans outstanding in the conflict areas before the shock. These banks, consequently, are more likely to experience an increase in troubled assets and a reduction in credit supply. Further analysis offers evidence of the "flight to headquarters" effect in credit allocation wherein more affected banks cut lending by a greater amount in markets located farther from headquarters.
    Keywords: geopolitical shock, credit allocation, asset quality, flight to headquarters, difference-in-differences
    JEL: G01 G21
    Date: 2018–01
  6. By: Yiwen Chen (CREA, Université du Luxembourg)
    Abstract: This paper examines whether the decision of migrant parents on children’s migration affect their school performance. Empirical evidence based on the 2009 wave of the Rural-Urban Migration Survey in China (RUMiC) data suggests that migrant children outperform left-behind children, especially for Chinese test scores. Further analysis interacting children’s migration status with their age shows that, in terms of school performance, younger children having migrated with parents to the city have advantage over their leftbehind counterparts in rural hometown, but this gap disappears with the age of children. Among children in junior high school, school performance of left-behind children are better than that of migrant children.
    Keywords: Chinese internal migrant workers; left-behind children; migrant children; school performance
    Date: 2018
  7. By: Fabio Pieri; Le Manh-Duc; Enrico Zaninotto
    Abstract: This paper examines the role of ownership and market competition in Vietnamese firms’ total factor productivity (TFP) from 2001 to 2011. Making use of a large panel dataset of Vietnamese manufacturing firms, we find that, on average, both foreign-owned enterprises(FOEs) and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) have performed better than privately owned enterprises (POEs) in terms of their TFP levels. However, while FOEs ranked the highest in terms of TFP in the period 2001-2006, SOEs "closed the gap" with FOEs in the period 2007–2011. SOEs’ good performance may be the result of the state-led development policies undertaken during the 2000s. We also find that market competition has been effective in enhancing average firm productivity and reducing the gaps in efficiency across firms of different ownership types. Based on these results, we compare Vietnam’s transition path with those followed by other countries.
    Keywords: Ownership, market competition, TFP, Vietnamese manufacturing, transition economies
    JEL: D24 L33 O53 N60 P27
    Date: 2018
  8. By: Bing Xu (Banco de España)
    Abstract: By allowing large classes of movable asstes to be used as collateral, the Property Law reform transformed the secured transactions in China. Difference-in-differences test show fi rms operating with ex-ante more movable assets expand access to bank credit and prolong debt maturity. However, the reform does not seem to improve the effi ciency of credit allocation, as debt capacity of ex-ante low quality fi rms expands the most following the reform. Credit expansion also does not lead to better fi rm performance. These findings are not driven by confounding factors such as improvements in creditor and property rights protection. Our results also cannot be explained by other important reforms which were introduced around the same time as the introduction of the Property Law. These include anti-tunneling and split-share reforms and amendments to the corporate tax structure in China. We conduct explicit robustness tests for these other reforms and hence contribute to the empirical literature on the reform process in China with new findings.
    Keywords: Collateral, movable assets, leverage, property law
    JEL: G21 G28 G32 K22
    Date: 2017–12
  9. By: Thi Mai Phuong, Chu
    Abstract: SECO Working Paper 23/2017 by Chu Thi Mai Phuong
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impacts of institutions on the performances of enterprises in Vietnam. The results obtained from the quantitative research method show that the criteria on institutions do not affect the performances of enterprises in Vietnam; while some criteria have positive impacts, others negatively affect them. Moreover, the improvement in the quality of economic institutions will lead to the differences in performance among different types of enterprises. More specifically, improving economic institutional quality will result in higher increases in the revenues and added values of state-owned enterprises than those of FDI enterprises. Similarly, the improvement also leads to the higher increase in private enterprises' revenues but lower increases in their added values and added value ratios compared to those of FDI enterprises. However, there is no difference in the impact of institutional quality improvement on the before-tax earnings of different types of enterprises. Based on the research's result, the paper proposes some suggestions to improve the quality of economic institutions, and thus improve enterprises' performances and success, on all three aspects including "rules", "players" and "implementation procedures".
    Date: 2018–01–19
  10. By: Alicia Garcia-Herrero (Chief Economist for Asia Pacific, NATIXIS; Department of Economics , The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology; Institute of Emerging Market Studies, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology); Jianwei Xu (Beijing Normal University)
    Abstract: This paper makes a mid-term assessment for China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) from the perspective of trade, investment and finance, respectively. We will discuss the economic progress of the Belt and Road Initiative from the trade, investment and financial perspectives, respectively. Trade is most accessible field for China to breakthrough as it can be instantly affected by short-term policies such as removing tariff or non-tariff barriers. Our findings also confirm the rapid progress in trade, though the development was not equally distributed in the area, with the ASEAN, Middle East, South Asia and Russia constitute the largest trade share with China. Our analysis on the BRI’s spillover effect on the US and the EU reveals that the BRI plan poses actually very little substitution effect but under some scenarios even positive impact on the EU-China trade. We especially assess the impacts on the EU, which sits at the other end of the BRI area, and find that better connectedness within the BRI area will bring higher economic benefits to the EU than free trade agreements.
    Date: 2018–01
  11. By: Song, Zheng (Michael); Xiong, Wei
    Abstract: Motivated by growing concerns about the risks and instability of China’s financial system, this article reviews several commonly perceived financial risks and discusses their roots in China’s politico-economic institutions. We emphasize the need to evaluate these risks within China’s unique economic and financial systems, in which the state and non-state sectors coexist and the financial system serves as a key tool of the government to fund its economic policies. Overall, we argue that: (1) financial crisis is unlikely to happen in the near future, and (2) the ultimate risk lies with China’s economic growth, as a vicious circle of distortions in the financial system lowers the efficiency of capital allocation and economic growth and will eventually exacerbate financial risks in the long run.
    JEL: E02 G01
    Date: 2018–01–17
  12. By: Chia-Lin Chang (Department of Applied Economics, Department of Finance, National Chung Hsing University, Taiwan); Te-Ke Mai (Department of Economics, National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan); Michael McAleer (Department of Finance, Asia University, Taiwan)
    Abstract: The purpose of the paper is to provide a clear mechanism for determining carbon emissions pricing in China as a guide to how carbon emissions might be mitigated to reduce fossil fuel pollution. The Chinese Government has promoted the development of clean energy, including hydroelectric power, wind power, and solar energy generation. In order to involve companies in carbon emissions control, a series of regional and provincial carbon markets have been established since 2013. Since China’s carbon market was established in 2013 and mainly run domestically, and not necessarily using market principles, there has been almost no research on China’s carbon price and volatility. This paper provides an introduction to China’s regional and provincial carbon markets, proposes how to establish a national market for pricing carbon emissions, discusses how and when these markets might be established, how they might perform, and the subsequent prices for China’s regional and national carbon markets. Power generation in manufacturing consumes more than other industries, with more than 40% of total coal consumption. Apart from manufacturing, the northern China heating system also relies on fossil fuels, mainly coal, which causes serious pollution. In order to understand the regional markets well, it is necessary to analyze the energy structure in these regions. Coal is the primary energy source in China, so that provinces that rely heavily on coal receive a greater number of carbon emissions permits from the Chinese Government. In order to establish a national carbon market for China, a detailed analysis of eight important regional markets will be presented. The four largest energy markets, namely Guangdong, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hubei, traded around 82% of the total volume and 85% of the total value of the seven markets in 2017, as the industry structure of the western area is different from that of the eastern area. The China National Development and Reform Commission has proposed a national carbon market, which can attract investors and companies to participate in carbon emissions trading. This important issue will be investigated in the paper.
    Keywords: Pricing Chinese Carbon Emissions; National Pricing Policy; Energy; Volatility; Energy Finance; Provincial Decisions
    JEL: C22 C58 G12 Q48
    Date: 2018–01–11
  13. By: Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Hoai-Son Nguyen (ABIèS - Ecole doctorale - INA P-G - Institut National Agronomique Paris-Grignon, CleanED - Clean Energy and Sustainable Development Lab - USTH - University of sciences and technologies of hanoi, CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Access to clean and affordable energy for all is the seventh sustainable development goal. This manuscript examines the state of access to electricity for all in Vietnam, based on national households surveys conducted in the time period 2008-2014. Our theoretical contribution to debates on energy poverty is to account for the human dimension by using an self-reported satisfaction indicator. We argue that subjective energy poverty indicators –designed from surveys asking people if they had enough electricity to meet their households needs– are as relevant as objective indicators –from engineering or economic data. While objectivity is laudable, development is not only about technology and money: measuring human satisfaction matters. We find that in Vietnam, the problem of providing access to clean energy for all is largely solved for now: the fraction of households without access to electricity is below two percent, the median level of electricity usage in 2014 was 100 kWh per month per household, and the fraction of households declaring unsatisfied electricity needs is below three percent. We also find that electricity is becoming a heavier burden in Vietnamese households’ finances. In 2010, the electricity bill exceeded 6% of income for 2.4% of households, but in 2014 that number reached 5.5% of households. Electricity is affordable for all in Vietnam today, but this could be compromised if electricity tariffs increase in order to finance further clean development of the energy system. We quantify how this problem could be attenuated by making the retail tariff of electricity much more progressive. We define a more progressive block tariff that provides free access to 30 kWh basic need per household, while increasing the cost for other blocks. This could increases the revenue for EVN by 15% and at the same time decrease the electricity bill for the 28% of households who use less than 80 kWh per month.
    Keywords: sustainable development goal,electricity,Vietnam,Indicators of sustainable development
    Date: 2017–08–01
  14. By: Konstantins Benkovskis; Jaan Masso; Oleg Tkacevs; Priit Vahter; Naomitsu Yashiro
    Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of export entry on productivity, employment and wages of Latvian and Estonian firms in the context of global value chain (GVC). Like in many countries, exporting firms in Latvia and Estonia are more productive, larger, pay higher wages and are more capital intensive than non-exporting firms. While this is partly because firms that are originally more productive and have better performances are more likely to enter export, Latvian and Estonian firms also realise more than 23% and 14% higher labour productivity level as the result of export entry. Export entry also increases employment and average wages. Gains in productivity and employment are particularly large when firms enter exports that are related to participation in knowledge-intensive activities found in the upstream of GVC. For instance, Latvian firms that start exporting intermediate goods or non-transport services (which include knowledge intensive services) enjoy significantly higher productivity gains than those starting to export final goods or transport services. These findings underscore the importance of innovation policies that strengthen firms’ capabilities to supply highly differentiated knowledge-intensive goods and services to GVC.
    Keywords: productivity, global value chain, export, Latvia, Estonia
    JEL: F12 F14 O19 O57
    Date: 2018
  15. By: Bachev, Hrabrin; Ivanov, Bojidar; Toteva, Dessislava; Sokolova, Emilia; Terziev, Dimitar; Nikolov, Dimitar; Radeva, Donka; Chopeva, Minka; Li, Hongfei; Che, Shengquan
    Abstract: This paper applies interdisciplinary approach and assesses the system of governance and the level of agrarian sustainability in Bulgaria and China. The first part presents a holistic and practically applicable for the contemporary conditions of development of Bulgarian and Chinese agriculture framework for assessing the system of governance and the level of agrarian sustainability. The suggested approach is broadly experimented in Bulgaria for assessing the governance system of agrarian sustainability and the sustainability level of Bulgarian agriculture. In the second part the system of governance of agrarian sustainability in Bulgaria is analyzed and the efficiency of institutional environment and diverse market, private, collective, public and hybrid modes are evaluated. In the third part an assessment is made on the economic, social, environmental and integral sustainability of Bulgarian agriculture at national, sectoral, regional, ecosystem and farm levels. Factors for improving agrarian sustainability are also identified and the innovation activity and sustainability of alternative agriculture estimated. In the fourth part the governance and sustainability in Chinese agriculture at national, regional and local levels is analyzed, and results of a number of in-depth studies from Shanghai area are presented. Comparative study is also made on the systems of governance and the levels of agrarian sustainability in Bulgaria and China. Finally, the experiences and challenges in the governance and assessment of agrarian sustainability in Bulgaria and China are summarized and directions for improvement of research, management and assessment practices suggested.
    Keywords: Agrarian governance, agrarian sustainability, market, private, collective, public, hybrid modes, assessment, China, Bulgaria
    JEL: L1 L14 L2 Q1 Q12 Q13 Q15 Q18 Q5
    Date: 2018–01–05
  16. By: Manh Ha Nguyen (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - UN - Université de Nantes); Olivier Darné (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - UN - Université de Nantes)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes volatility models and their risk forecasting abilities with the presence of jumps for the Vietnam Stock Exchange (VSE). We apply GARCH-type models, which capture short and long memory and the leverage effect, estimated from both raw and filtered returns. The data sample covers two VSE indexes, the VN index and HNX index, provided by the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HOSE) and Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX), respectively, during the period 2007 - 2015. The empirical results reveal that the FIAPARCH model is the most suitable model for the VN index and HNX index.
    Keywords: Vietnam Stock exchange,volatility,GARCH models,Value-at-Risk.
    Date: 2018–01–09

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