nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2018‒01‒15
twenty-two papers chosen by
J. David Brown
United States Census Bureau

  1. Age and Education in the Russian Labour Market Equation By Gimpelson, Vladimir; Kapeliushnikov, Rostislav
  2. Artificial Administrative Boundaries: Evidence from China By Pei Li, Yi Lu, Tuan-Heww Sng
  3. "Gender Pay Gaps in the Former Soviet Union: A Review of the Evidence" By Tamar Khitarishvili
  5. Property Rights, Land Misallocation and Agricultural Efficiency in China By A.V. Chari; Elaine Liu; Shing-Yi Wang; Yongxiang Wang
  6. Urban Consumption Inequality in China, 1995–2013 By Xia, Qingjie; Li, Shi; Song, Lina
  7. Property Rights, Land Misallocation and Agricultural Efficiency in China By A.V. Chari; Elaine M. Liu; Shing-Yi Wang; Yongxiang Wang
  8. Demographic Dividend & Economic Development in Easter and Central European Countries By Harkat, Tahar; Driouchi, Ahmed
  9. Willingness to Pay for Clean Air in China By Richard Freeman; Wenquan Liang; Ran Song; Christopher Timmins
  10. The Determinants of Virtue: Modelling Changes in the CSR Ratings of Chinese Firms By Wu, Shuangqi; Appleton, Simon; Song, Lina; Wang, Jinmin
  12. Liquidity Constraints, Transition Dynamics, and the Chinese Housing Return Premium By Yu Zhang
  13. Two-child Policy, Gender Income and Fertility Choice In China By Liu, Tao-Xiong; Liu, Jun
  14. Severe Air Pollution and School Absences: Longitudinal Data on Expatriates in North China By Liu, Haoming; Salvo, Alberto
  15. Анализ развития открытого правительства в Казахстане By ISKAKOV, Aziz
  16. Exploiting Investors Social Network for Stock Prediction in China's Market By Xi Zhang; Jiawei Shi; Di Wang; Binxing Fang
  17. Public finances under plurality and proportional electoral systems. Evidence from Hungarian municipalities By GREGOR Andras
  18. The Rise and Fall of Local Elections in China: Theory and Empirical Evidence on the Autocrat's Trade-off By Martinez-Bravo, Monica; Padró i Miquel, Gerard; Qian, Nancy; Yao, Yan
  19. Economic Consequences of Political Persecution By Bohacek, Radim; Myck, Michal
  20. Регионален стратешки документ за општествено вклучување на младите невработени од Североисточниот плански регион преку пазарот на трудот: со акциски план By Kovachev, Goran; Garvanlieva Andonova, Vesna; Dimovska, Gabriela
  21. Effectiveness of monetary policy in stabilising food inflation: Evidence from advanced and emerging economies. By Bhattacharya, Rudrani
  22. Intangible-intensive strategies of Russian companies By Sofia N. Paklina; Mariia A. Molodchik; Carlos Jardon

  1. By: Gimpelson, Vladimir (CLMS, Higher School of Economics, Moscow); Kapeliushnikov, Rostislav (CLMS, Higher School of Economics, Moscow)
    Abstract: This paper deals with age and educational dimensions of the labour supply in Russia and explores two time periods: from 2000 to 2015 (retrospective), and the next 15 years (prospective). For our analysis we exploit the micro-census (2015) data and all LFS waves covering the retrospective period. Combining demographic projections with expected employment rates and data on educational achievement we forecast the employment composition up to 2030. If recent past changes in both age and education have contributed to economic growth, their effect is likely to be negative in the next 15 years. These two dimensions are directly associated with such challenges as ageing and over-education of the labour force. Russia is not unique here, but it is more exposed to both dimensions than are many other countries due to its demographic and educational developments. The paper concludes with several tentative policies that could ease, although not cure, the problem.
    Keywords: over-education, employment, education, age, aging, Russia
    JEL: J11 J21 J24
    Date: 2017–11
  2. By: Pei Li, Yi Lu, Tuan-Heww Sng
    Abstract: What happens when subnational boundaries are badly drawn? We use China as a laboratory to investigate the rami cations. As Chinese provincial and long-standing socioeconomic boundaries are not fully aligned, counties of the same province may not share the same regional identity. Using Deng Xiaoping's eco-nomic liberalization campaign in 1991-92 to implement a difference-in-differences, we find that the annual growth differential between non-is located and dislocated counties increased by 3.1 percentage points after Deng's campaign galvanized the provinces to pursue economic expansion. We also uncover evidence of discrimination against the dislocated counties by the provincial authorities.
    Keywords: Artificial borders, Regional Favoritism, Decentralization, China
    JEL: D73 H11 H77 O43
    Date: 2017–09
  3. By: Tamar Khitarishvili
    Abstract: The goal of this paper is to examine the patterns and movements of the gender pay gaps in the countries of the former Soviet Union (FSU) and to place them in the context of advanced economies. We survey over 30 publications and conduct a meta-analysis of this literature. Gender pay gaps in the region are considerable and above the levels observed in advanced economies. Similar to advanced economies, industrial and occupational segregation widens the gaps in the FSU countries, whereas gender differences in educational attainment tend to shrink them. However, a much higher proportion of the gaps remain unexplained, pointing toward the role of unobserved gender differences related to actual and perceived productivity. Over the last 25 years, the gaps contracted in most FSU countries, primarily due to the reduction in the unexplained portion. Underlying the contraction at the mean are different movements in the gap across the pay distribution. Although the glass-ceiling effect has diminished in some FSU countries, it has persisted in others. We investigate the reasons underlying these findings and argue that the developments in the FSU region shed new light on our understanding of the gender pay gaps.
    Keywords: Gender Pay Gap; Former Soviet Union; Meta-analysis
    JEL: J16 J31 P2
    Date: 2018–01
  4. By: Zaruk, Natalia; Tikhonova, Anna; Lukina, Valentina
    Abstract: In the framework of this study, the authors developed and tested a methodology for assessing tax control in Russia as one of the main instruments of tax monitoring. We analyzed the dynamics of the increase in tax revenues to the budget of the Russian Federation due to the intensive work of tax authorities in the regions, which consists in automating the mechanisms of tax administration. We conducted a typification of the regions of Russia in terms of the level and quality of tax control.
    Keywords: Tax control, tax monitoring, typical grouping, ratio of checks and additional charges
    JEL: C44 H2
    Date: 2017–04
  5. By: A.V. Chari (University of Sussex); Elaine Liu (University of Houston); Shing-Yi Wang (University of Pennsylvania); Yongxiang Wang (University of Southern California)
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of a property rights reform in rural China that allowed farmers to lease out their land. We find the reform led to increases in land rental activity in rural households. Consistent with a model of transaction costs in land markets, our results indicate that the formalization of leasing rights resulted in a redistribution of land toward more productive farmers. Consequently, the aggregate productivity of land increased significantly. We also find that the reform increased the responsiveness of land allocation across crops to changes in crop prices.
    Keywords: China, land reform
    JEL: Q15
    Date: 2017–12
  6. By: Xia, Qingjie (Peking University); Li, Shi (Beijing Normal University); Song, Lina (University of Nottingham)
    Abstract: We use 1995, 2002 and 2013 CHIP data to investigate the urban household consumption expenditure inequality. The overall inequality of urban household consumption expenditure measured by Gini coefficient slightly decreases from 0.33 in 1995 to 0.32 in 2002, but increases to 0.36 in 2013, which follows the same trend with that of urban income but is severer. However, the percentile ratio of p90/p10 shows that consumption inequality increases all the time. Besides, the inequality of basic food consumption is much smaller than the overall consumption, its contribution to the overall consumption inequality decreases from 20% in 1995 and 2002 to 15% by 2013, and its share also decreases steadily from 34% in 1995 to 30% in 2002 and further to 24% in 2013, and finally its share steadily decreases as the overall consumption level moving up the distribution in each of the three years. The inequality of housing consumption is much larger than overall consumption but decreasing over time, its contribution to the overall consumption inequality increases 35% in earlier two years to 40% by 2013, and its share also sharply increases from 23% in 1995 to 30% in 2002 and further to 38% in 2013, besides its share shows upward sloping as overall consumption level increases in each of the three years.
    Keywords: consumption, household surveys, inequality
    JEL: D3 D63
    Date: 2017–11
  7. By: A.V. Chari; Elaine M. Liu; Shing-Yi Wang; Yongxiang Wang
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of a property rights reform in rural China that allowed farmers to lease out their land. We find the reform led to increases in land rental activity in rural households. Consistent with a model of transaction costs in land markets, our results indicate that the formalization of leasing rights resulted in a redistribution of land toward more productive farmers. Consequently, the aggregate productivity of land increased significantly. We also find that the reform increased the responsiveness of land allocation across crops to changes in crop prices.
    JEL: Q15
    Date: 2017–12
  8. By: Harkat, Tahar; Driouchi, Ahmed
    Abstract: The following paper discusses the occurrence of the demographic dividend in Eastern and Central European countries (ECE). The data used is extracted from the World Bank and provides with descriptive statistics in addition to empirical analyses of fertility and mortality rates, and the significant causal links between the change in the demographic composition and unemployment, economic development, expenditure, education, and female participation variables. This is throughout regression analysis process with robust standard error and Granger causality tests. Empirical findings indicate that both the fertility rates and mortality rates of infants have decreasing trends in these countries. Further analysis indicates that the demographic dividend already occurred in these countries and has ended except for Estonia, Hungary and Romania. The last part of the results indicates that the change of the demographic composition of the populations of ECE countries have causalities that differ from an economy to another.
    Keywords: Demographic Dividend, Demographic Transition, ECE Countries, Granger Causality.
    JEL: J11 J13 O11
    Date: 2017–12–25
  9. By: Richard Freeman; Wenquan Liang; Ran Song; Christopher Timmins
    Abstract: We develop a residential sorting model incorporating migration disutility to recover the implicit value of clean air in China. The model is estimated using China Population Census Data along with PM2.5 satellite data. Our study provides new evidence on the willingness to pay for air quality improvement in developing countries and is the first application of an equilibrium sorting model to the valuation of non-market amenities in China. We employ two novel instrumental variables based on coal-fired electricity generation and wind direction to address the endogeneity of local air pollution. Results suggest important differences between the residential sorting model and a conventional hedonic model, highlighting the role of moving costs and the discreteness of the choice set. Our sorting results indicate that the economic value of air quality improvement associated with a one-unit decline in PM2.5 concentration is up to $8.83 billion for all Chinese households in 2005.
    JEL: Q51 Q53 R23
    Date: 2017–12
  10. By: Wu, Shuangqi (University of Nottingham); Appleton, Simon (University of Nottingham); Song, Lina (University of Nottingham); Wang, Jinmin (University of Nottingham)
    Abstract: Most empirical studies on Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) use cross-sectional data or case studies, making causality hard to establish. We overcome this limitation by using panel data on Chinese firms. We find no effect of last year's profits on CSR ratings, although their negative contemporaneous relation suggests a trade-off. Managerial shareholdings reduce CSR ratings while rising wages and employment are the main drivers of increasing CSR ratings. This suggests the CSR agenda aligns with the interests of labour, but not capital. However, the positive effect of Tobin's Q may indicate CSR is associated with intangibles of value to a firm.
    Keywords: firms, corporate social responsibility, China
    JEL: M14
    Date: 2017–11
  11. By: Zaruk, Natalia; Tikhonova, Anna; Sergeev, Artur
    Abstract: Subject.World globalization, the integration of the international economic system, the active development of transnational corporations, which are the distinguishing feature of the global economy of the XXI century, are subjected to national financial system to risks of different quality, and the Russian Federation in this aspect are no exception.In addition, transformation of the economy accelerates significantly in the last decade, which is inevitably accompanied by financial crises.Inthisconnectionespecially important is the "point" plan of the financial system, based on econometric modeling of its indicators and are therefore more flexible and adaptive. PurposeofArticle.The purpose of research is the construction of an econometric model to determine the specific values of the financial system indicators for the rationalization of Russian fiscal policy. Methodology.In this work, we used the classic techniques of analysis of statistical science and econometrics: correlation analysis, regression analysis, time series analysis. Using comparative methods, we reviewed scientific approaches to the treatment of financial system indicators. Results. We defined the essence, the concept of indicators of the financial system, by which we called the credit expansion of commercial banks and prices in the asset market. Econometric model, which allows to determine the specific values of indicators of the financial system for the rationalization of Russia's financial policy, has been determined. The coefficient of determination of the constructed model was 54.56% (r = 0.74). This indicates a high proportion of asset price variations caused by variation of loans economy. The statistical accuracy of the model was proved using Student's test, Fisher test and Lyuinga – Boxing test. In the final part of the study, suggestions are made for getting out of the stagflation trap and stimulating the growth of the Russian economy. Field of Application.The results of the research can be used for financial planning and forecasting, as well as in determining priority directions of developmentof the Russian financial system. Conclusions.We concluded that an increase in lending, the Russian economy will have a real chance of accelerating social and economic development.
    Keywords: credit expansion, market assets, indicators, financial system, modeling.
    JEL: E6 G2
    Date: 2017–09
  12. By: Yu Zhang (Princeton University)
    Abstract: Home price movements received increasing academic and public attention in recent years. In this paper, I propose a novel explanation for large housing booms in emerging markets that highlights the effect of household wealth accumulation on housing prices under liquidity constraints, using the recent Chinese housing boom as an example. In China, housing prices grew 170% during 2003–2012 in real terms. Returns on housing commanded a 12% premium annually over the risk-free rate. Across Chinese cities, increases in the value of housing are closely associated with increases in household wealth, whether measured with or without housing. I argue that the high Chinese housing return premium results from an upward transition in household wealth from a low initial condition interacted with liquidity constraints. Specifically, low initial household wealth, under liquidity constraints, limits housing prices to be low in 2003; but as household wealth quickly rises aided by high household savings, housing prices also quickly increase. I quantitatively assess this explanation using an otherwise standard consumption-housing two-asset dynamic portfolio choice model, augmented with realistic liquidity constraints and low initial wealth, with housing priced in industry equilibrium. The model matches the high housing return premium and explains 92% of the observed increase in housing prices. The model also generates other intriguing predictions, including an investment motive that helps explain the high Chinese household saving rate puzzle. It also predicts that a permanent slowdown in Chinese economic growth might only lead to a temporary dip in Chinese housing prices. The analysis in this paper also provides insights for understanding other episodes in emerging housing markets for which there are both liquidity constraints and low initial household wealth.
    Date: 2017
  13. By: Liu, Tao-Xiong; Liu, Jun
    Abstract: We build up a three-period overlapping generation model to explore the effectiveness of fertility policy and the corresponding factors affecting the fertility choices in China. The results show that there is a significant U-shaped relationship between female income and the two-child fertility choice, and a significant positive relationship between male income and the two-child fertility choice, and the relationship between the price of other child care services and the two-child fertility choice is negatively correlated. The analysis of the effectiveness of the current universal two-child policy suggests that there exists a threshold of the fertility policy estimated to be between 1 and 2. Therefore, even if the two-child policy is further relaxed to a three child policy, it will exert little influence on fertility choice. Thus other forms of fertility policy should be combined to improve fertility rate.
    Keywords: two-child policy; male and female income; threshold of the fertility policy
    JEL: J13 J18 J31
    Date: 2017–11
  14. By: Liu, Haoming (National University of Singapore); Salvo, Alberto (National University of Singapore)
    Abstract: Little is known about how children of high-income expatriate families, often from rich nations, adapt to temporary residence in a severely polluted city of the developing world. We use a six-year panel of 6,500 students at three international schools in a major city in north China to estimate how fluctuation in ambient PM2.5 over the preceding fortnight impacts daily absences. Our preferred estimates are based on the exclusion restriction that absences respond to atmospheric ventilation such as thermal inversions only through ventilation's effect on particle levels. A large and rare 100 to 200 μg/m3 shift in average PM2.5 in the prior week raises the incidence of absences by 1 percentage point, about one-quarter of the sample mean. We find stronger responses for US/Canada nationals than among Chinese nationals, and among students who generally miss school the most. Overall responses are mod-est compared to the effect on absences from more moderate in-sample variation in pollution estimated for the US using aggregate data. Using school absence patterns as a window into short-run health and behavior, our study suggests that high-income families find ways to adapt, likely by moving life indoors, even if temporary residence in north China comes at the expense of long-term health.
    Keywords: environmental valuation, environmental damage, environmental health, atmospheric ventilation, thermal inversions, heterogeneous effects, longitudinal study, acute exposure, PM2.5, particulate matter, air pollution, school absences, avoidance behavior, distributed lags, instrumental variables
    JEL: I18 J24 Q51
    Date: 2017–11
  15. By: ISKAKOV, Aziz
    Abstract: This article is intended to fill the gap in the scientific literature, which consists of a low level of scrutiny and the absence of papers analyzing the development of an open government institution through the prism of Kazakhstan's involvement in international projects and initiatives in this field. The article analyzes critically the works of Kazakhstani, Russian and foreign authors, reviews of Kazakhstan's country indicators in international rankings in fields of information technology, open data, open government and transparency of the public budget. The author also presents the results of the analysis of the role of the open government in the documents of the strategic planning system of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The results of the research showed the lack of a strategic vision of an open government institution and the need to study the extent to which international experience is applicable in Kazakhstan's realities. This article is the first of a series of papers on the Kazakhstan open government.
    Keywords: open government, open data, open budget, transparency, open government data, e-government, Kazakhstan
    JEL: O38
    Date: 2017–12
  16. By: Xi Zhang; Jiawei Shi; Di Wang; Binxing Fang
    Abstract: Recent works have shown that social media platforms are able to influence the trends of stock price movements. However, existing works have majorly focused on the U.S. stock market and lacked attention to certain emerging countries such as China, where retail investors dominate the market. In this regard, as retail investors are prone to be influenced by news or other social media, psychological and behavioral features extracted from social media platforms are thought to well predict stock price movements in the China's market. Recent advances in the investor social network in China enables the extraction of such features from web-scale data. In this paper, on the basis of tweets from Xueqiu, a popular Chinese Twitter-like social platform specialized for investors, we analyze features with regard to collective sentiment and perception on stock relatedness and predict stock price movements by employing nonlinear models. The features of interest prove to be effective in our experiments.
    Date: 2018–01
  17. By: GREGOR Andras (CORE, Université catholique de Louvain)
    Abstract: In this paper I provide evidence on e ects of plurality and proportional electoral systems on fiscal outcomes. In Hungary di erent voting regimes are applied to elect the members of local councils: in places where more than 10,000 people live a variant of
    Keywords: public finances, plurality vs. proportional system
    JEL: H72 H77 D72 D78
    Date: 2017–11–06
  18. By: Martinez-Bravo, Monica; Padró i Miquel, Gerard; Qian, Nancy; Yao, Yan
    Abstract: We propose a simple informational theory to explain why autocratic regimes introduce local elections. Because citizens have better information on local officials than the distant central government, delegation of authority via local elections improves selection and performance of local officials. However, local officials under elections have no incentive to implement unpopular centrally mandated policies. The model makes several predictions: i) elections pose a trade-off between performance and vertical control; ii) elections improve the selection of officials; and iii) an increase in bureaucratic capacity reduces the desirability of elections for the autocrat. To test (i) and (ii), we collect a large village-level panel dataset from rural China. Consistent with the model, we find that elections improve (weaken) the implementation of popular (unpopular) policies, and improve official selection. We provide a large body of qualitative and descriptive evidence to support (iii). In doing so, we shed light on why the Chinese government has systematically undermined village governments twenty years after they were introduced.
    Keywords: economic development; Loan pricing; Loan spreads; Democratic institutions; Reversals; political economy
    JEL: O2 P16 P3
    Date: 2017–11
  19. By: Bohacek, Radim (CERGE-EI); Myck, Michal (Centre for Economic Analysis, CenEA)
    Abstract: We analyze the effects of persecution and labor market discrimination during the communist regime in the former Czechoslovakia using a representative life history sample from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe. We find strong effects of persecution and dispossession on subsequent earnings, with most severe implications of job loss due to persecution on earnings in subsequent jobs and on career degradation. Accumulated long-term effects in the form of initial retirement pensions paid during the communist regime are even greater. These pension penalties disappear by 2006 largely as a result of compensation schemes implemented by democratic governments after 1989. We use unique administrative data on political rehabilitation and prosecution to instrument for the endogenous variables. Finally, we survey transitional justice theory and document reparations programs in other countries.
    Keywords: life histories, wage differentials, persecution, labor discrimination, economic history, treatment effect models
    JEL: N34 J70 J31 C21
    Date: 2017–11
  20. By: Kovachev, Goran; Garvanlieva Andonova, Vesna; Dimovska, Gabriela
    Abstract: [in Macedonian] Социјалната вклученост на младите подразбира многу поширок опфат од невработеноста. Таа содржи и други димензии како што се социјалната, културната, политичката и моралната димензија. Меѓутоа, со оглед на фактот дека сите овие димензии како нуклеус го имаат недостатокот на материјални средства предизвикан од невработеноста, потребно е да се понудат решенија токму за надминување на овој најгорлив проблем за младите во руралните подрачја од Североисточниот плански регион на Македонија. [in English] Social inclusion of youth is more than just employment. It is also consisted of social, cultural, political and moral dimensions. Nevertheless, the nucleus of resolving these dimensions is stable income created by permanent youth employment. Therefore, it is of great importance to offer viable solutions to the problem of high rural youth unemployment in the Northeastern region of Macedonia.
    Keywords: social inclusion; rural; youth; unemployment; labour market; Macedonia
    JEL: G28 J2 J4 J68
    Date: 2017–07
  21. By: Bhattacharya, Rudrani (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)
    Abstract: In the backdrop of several episodes of high and volatile food inflationin emerging economies, a wealth of literature emphasises on broad range of monetary and exchange rate policies to stabilise food inflation by moderating demand pressure. While the theoretical literature mainly focus on welfare-maximising monetary policy, there exists hardly any empirical consensus on effectiveness of monetary policy to stabilise food inflation. Very recently, a limited strand of empirical literature has attempted to shed light in this arena. The present study attempts to contribute in this literature by analysing effectiveness of monetary policy shock to stabilise food inflation in a panel of developed and emerging economies. We find that an unexpected monetary tightening has a positive and significant effect on food inflation in both advanced and emerging economies. Our findings suggest that in the backdrop of inflationary pressure stemming from the food sector, a monetary tightening may turn out to be destabilising for the food as well as overall inflation in the economy.
    Keywords: Food inflation ; Monetary policy ; Emerging economies ; Panel Vector Auto-Regression
    JEL: E31 E52 E58 C51
    Date: 2017–10
  22. By: Sofia N. Paklina (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Mariia A. Molodchik (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Carlos Jardon (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper explores strategic behavior of Russian companies with regard to intangible resources and its link to different types of performance. Additionally, the study addresses the question, whether companies in intangible-intensive profiles have specific characteristics in terms of industry, size, company age and type of ownership. Following intellectual capital view, the study provides a cluster analysis considering four attributes: human resources, innovative capabilities, information and communications technology (ICT) capabilities and relational capital. Analysis of more than 1,000 Russian public companies over the period 2004-2014 reveals three profiles of strategic behavior considering the employment of intellectual resources. The majority of Russian public companies (60%) follow the non-intensive intangible strategy. Only 13% of companies constitute the intangible-intensive profile having endowment of all intellectual resources higher than the sample average. The rest 27% of companies also persuade the intangible-intensive strategy with the focus on innovative capabilities
    Keywords: intangibles, intellectual capital, strategy, strategic group, cluster analysis, Russian companies, performance
    JEL: L10 O30 G30
    Date: 2017

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