nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2017‒08‒20
eight papers chosen by
J. David Brown
United States Census Bureau

  1. R&D Efficiency in High-Tech Firms in China By Lee, Sang-Ho; Chen, Zhao; Xu, Wei
  2. Capital flows, money supply and property prices: The case of China By Taguchi, Hiroyuki; Tian, Lina
  3. Time-Varying Impacts of Financial Credits on Firm Exports: Evidence from Trade Deregulation in China By Cheng, Dong; Hu, Zhongzhong; Tan, Yong
  4. The effect of inward foreign direct investment on economic growth: The case of Chinese provinces By Taguchi, Hiroyuki; Wang, Yining
  5. Tail dependence between gold and sectorial stocks in China: Perspectives for portfolio diversication By Joscha Beckmann; Theo Berger; Robert Czudaj; Thi-Hong-Van Hoang
  6. Public-private wage differences in the Western Balkan countries By Vladisavljević, Marko; Narazani, Edlira; Golubović, Vojin
  7. The ageing population phenomenon By Nicoleta Caragea; Antoniade Ciprian Alexandru
  8. Labour Market Analysis Using VAR Models By Ana-Maria Ciuhu

  1. By: Lee, Sang-Ho; Chen, Zhao; Xu, Wei
    Abstract: Using firm-level data from Changzhou, one of the representative prefectural cities in the Yangzi River Delta in China, we investigate the performances of both internal and external R&D in high-tech firms. We find that, on average, high-tech firms with more internal R&D expenditure apply for more patents in terms of both the total number of patents and the number of invention patents. Internal R&D is the most efficient in foreign firms, followed by private firms and then followed by SOEs (state-owned enterprises). These findings highlight the importance of privatizing high-tech firms in China if the Chinese government intends to accelerate industrial upgrading and convert the pattern of “Made in China” into “Created in China.”
    Keywords: internal R&D; external R&D; high-tech firms; R&D performances
    JEL: D22 H76 L25
    Date: 2017–08
  2. By: Taguchi, Hiroyuki; Tian, Lina
    Abstract: This article examines the interaction among capital flows, money supply and property prices with a focus of Chinese economy by using a vector auto-regression (VAR) estimation as an analytical framework. The key research questions were, first, whether money supply has been determined independently from capital flows, and then which factor, capital flows or money supply, has given a dominant effect on property prices. The contributions of this study are to investigate the impacts on property prices jointly from capital flows as an external factor and from money supply as a domestic factor, and to count on the differences in the trends in property prices of seventy regional cities in China. The main findings through the VAR estimations were as follows. First, domestic money supply has been determined exclusively from external capital flows through the authority’s perfect sterilization of foreign-exchange-market intervention. Second, the main contributor to property prices’ movement has been domestic money supply rather than external capital flows. Third, some deviations of property prices from the trend in money supply were found in big cities and/or coastal advanced cities.
    Keywords: Capital flows, Money supply, Property prices, China, Seventy reginal cities, Vector auto-regression estimation
    JEL: E51 F32 O53
    Date: 2017–07
  3. By: Cheng, Dong; Hu, Zhongzhong; Tan, Yong
    Abstract: This paper investigates the heterogeneous and time-varying effects of financial credits on firm-level export performance. Using a data set covering comprehensive Chinese manufacturing firms and employing a difference-in-differences approach, we find that financial credits improve firm-level exports and productivity more for firms switching from indirect to direct export than continuing indirect exporting firms. Further, we employ a difference-in-difference-in-differences approach and find that improvements in firm-level finance have larger positive impacts on firm export values in the post-WTO accession period, conditioning on the firm switching from indirect to direct exporting. The time-varying impact may suggest an export distortion in China before its WTO accession.
    Keywords: Financial Credits, WTO Accession, Indirect export, Direct Export, Difference-in-Differences
    JEL: F13 F14 G28
    Date: 2017–08–07
  4. By: Taguchi, Hiroyuki; Wang, Yining
    Abstract: This article examines the effect of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth with a focus on Chinese provinces by conducting the Granger causality and impulse response tests in a vector auto-regression (VAR) estimation. The study contributes to the reviewed literature by examining the FDI effect in such comprehensive ways as demand-side and supply-side models, and by clearing the endogeneity problem of targeted variables under a VAR framework. The main findings of this study were as follows. First, the positive effect of FDI on economic growth in Chinese provinces was confirmed by all the model estimations: statistical, demand-side and supply-side models. Second, from the regional perspectives, the positive effect of FDI on economic growth was found in the eastern region, but not in the non-eastern region. Third, no crowding-out effect of FDI on domestic capital formation was identified both in demand-side and supply side analyses.
    Keywords: Inward foreign direct investment (FDI), Economic growth, Chinese provinces, Vector auto-regression estimation, Granger causality and Impulse responses
    JEL: F21 O47 O53
    Date: 2017–08
  5. By: Joscha Beckmann (University of Duisburg-Essen, Department of Economics, Chair for Macroeconomics); Theo Berger (University of Bremen, Department of Business Administration, Chair for Applied Statistics and Empirical Economy); Robert Czudaj (Chemnitz University of Technology, Department of Economics, Chair for Empirical Economics); Thi-Hong-Van Hoang (Montpellier Business School, Montpellier Research in Management)
    Abstract: This article analyzes the relationship between gold quoted on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and Chinese sectorial stocks from 2009 to 2015. Using different copulas, our results show that there is weak but significant tail dependence between gold and Chinese sectorial stock returns. This means that the dependence between extreme movements of the two assets is not pronounced and confirms the role of gold as a safe haven asset. Based on analyzing the efficient frontier, CCCGARCH optimal weights, hedge ratios and hedging effectiveness, we further show that adding gold into Chinese stock portfolios can help to reduce their risk. Gold appears to be the most efficient diversifier for stocks of the materials sector and the less efficient for the utilities sector. As a robustness check, we also compare gold to oil and indicate that gold is more efficient than oil in the diversification of Chinese stock portfolios.
    Keywords: Shanghai Gold Exchange, Chinese sectorial stocks, oil, copulas, portfolio implications
    JEL: G11 C58
    Date: 2017–07
  6. By: Vladisavljević, Marko; Narazani, Edlira; Golubović, Vojin
    Abstract: This paper investigates wage differences between the public and private sectors in the Western Balkan countries. As currently there are no micro data sets that are fully comparable across countries, we provide evidence based on the available macro-level data and results from recent micro-level research which typically focus on the individual countries. We find that in all Western Balkan countries the average wages in the public sector are higher than the wages in the private sector, but also that the high-skilled workers work more frequently in the public sector, therefore partially or fully "justifying" the wage differences. Around the begining of 2010s, wage differences were lower in Montenegro, Albania and Kosovo, where when adjusted for the differences in workers characteristics they become insignificant. The differences were more promenent in Serbia, Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, where the differences in characteristic cannot explain the gap fully, and where the public sector wage premium is positive and significant. However, public private wage differences are still very volatile and under the impact of countries' political decisions. The differences in the size of the premium is discussed in the context of previously estblished correlates: differences in the total public sector size and private sector job security, as well as different size of the public sector wage premium at the different parts of the wage distribution. As public private wage gaps have important micro and macro level implications, their trends and mechanisms should be closely monitored and investigated in future research.
    Keywords: Public private wage differences, Western Balkans
    JEL: J31 J45 J50
    Date: 2017–06–30
  7. By: Nicoleta Caragea (National Institute of Statistics, Ecological University of Bucharest); Antoniade Ciprian Alexandru (Ecological University of Bucharest, National Institute of Statistics)
    Abstract: Each of us is a member of a population and its factors have an impact on many aspects of life. The knowledge of population data, whether the people living inside the country borders or those living in other countries, but having their permanent residence in Romania, are of particular importance in various aspects. The population size and quality, two dimensions in a complex connection, determine both the intensity of socio-economic processes and the specificity of their performance. Overtime changes in population, such as the number of persons and the structure, define the demographic behaviour of a country, accounting for a major milestone in the political, economic, social and cultural context. Demographic ageing is already a phenomenon in Romania, produced independently, as a result of social and economic conditions which characterise the society we live in a given period of time.
    Keywords: usual resident population, aging population, demographic phenomena, international migration
    JEL: J10 J13 J14 J15
    Date: 2017–04
  8. By: Ana-Maria Ciuhu (Ecological University of Bucharest - Faculty of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper aims to emphasize the way of conducting a multivariate vector autoregressive model for analyzing the labour market in Romania. The quarterly data used in the analysis comprises the following variables: social productivity, employment rate, real wage and unemployment rate. The analysis is conducted by using the vars package in R. The vector autoregressive model is one of the most flexible and easy to use models for the analysis of multivariate time series.
    Keywords: Employment, Labour market, Vector autoregressive models, R
    JEL: C32 C51 E24 J21
    Date: 2017–04

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