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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Marcin Grela (Narodowy Bank Polski); Aleksandra Majchrowska (Narodowy Bank Polski, University of Lodz); Tomasz Michałek (Narodowy Bank Polski); Jakub Mućk (Narodowy Bank Polski); Agnieszka Stążka-Gawrysiak (Narodowy Bank Polski); Grzegorz Tchorek (Narodowy Bank Polski, University of Warsaw); Marcin Wagner (Narodowy Bank Polski) |
| Abstract: | This paper is about the real convergence of six Central and Eastern European economies – Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia – towards the more advanced EU-15 economies. Our major goal is to analyse empirically which factors have driven growth and convergence in the region in the last two decades. The results of our analysis based on a panel of 26 EU countries in 1997–2014 suggest that the real convergence was driven by both traditional (core) and ‘new growth theory’ growth factors (among other things, by innovation activity and trade). We demonstrate that the post-transition growth model prevailing in the CEE region, based on a large inflow of foreign capital (mainly in the form of FDI) has reached its limits. The CEE countries’ growth and convergence will now be driven mainly by factors affecting structural competitiveness, especially innovation activity, institutional environment and policies (or lack thereof) targeted at diminishing the influence of demographic developments on the labour market outcomes. |
| Keywords: | real convergence, growth, Central and Eastern Europe, EU, panel data analysis |
| JEL: | F43 O47 O43 O11 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:264&r=tra |
| By: | Nikulin, Alexander (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Trotsuk, Irina (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Kopoteva, Inna (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Rizatdinov, R.F. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | In the last 25 years, various processes of differentiation in the use of rural areas and the production of food have taken place in the Russian Federation. The socio-spatial characteristics of these processes are rather sketchy and approximate. This study seeks to provide a systemic interdisciplinary picture of the transformation of rural regions and communities, primarily related to the specifics (problems and prospects) of food production and distribution, as well as the development of recommendations in the field of state and regional programs for rural spatial development. To solve these tasks, the development of characteristics, indicators and indicators of spatial and food monitoring of rural settlements and regions of the Russian Federation was made, an attempt was made through analysis of the category "civil society" in rural areas of Russia and foreign countries to compare the spatial and food aspects of rural settlements and regions The Russian Federation and a number of countries of the near and far abroad. The article introduces the results of spatial and food monitoring using the tools and results of quantitative and qualitative research carried out in 2015-2016 by the Center for Agrarian Research of RANEPA |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:051725&r=tra |
| By: | Anna Wong |
| Abstract: | This paper examines an anomaly in China’s current account: its large and rapidly growing travel expenditure. Drawing evidence from counterparty data, Chinese international arrival statistics, and gravity equation models extended to travel trade, I find that a significant amount of China’s travel spending in the period 2014-2016 could not be explained by accounting factors or economic fundamentals. The unexplained travel imports are inversely associated with domestic growth and positively associated with renminbi depreciation expectations against the dollar, suggesting that they are less likely to be consumption of goods and services abroad than domestic residents’ acquisition of foreign financial assets. Adjusted for these potential disguised outflows, China’s current account balance could be higher than reported by around 1 percent of GDP in 2015 and 2016, a period when the Chinese economy slowed noticeably as it shifted away from investment-driven growth (i.e.“internal rebalancing”). These results suggest that Chinese households, through the travel channel, have in part replaced the official sector in directing domestic surplus savings abroad in recent years. While the official sector preferred liquid foreign government assets, Chinese households appear to prefer private foreign assets. |
| Keywords: | Capital flight ; Current account ; Trade mis-invoicing ; Services trade |
| JEL: | F32 F21 F14 G15 |
| Date: | 2017–06–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1208&r=tra |
| By: | Idrisov, Georgy (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Kaukin, Andrey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Pavlov, Pavel (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The main purpose of the research is to test hypotheses about the impact of the real effective exchange rate, the level of business confidence, the prices of imported and domestic substitute investment goods, income (gross value added/revenue) of Russian industry, the EU and US sectoral sanctions on indicators of investment dynamics in Russia at different time intervals. Factors of demand of Russian companies on the import of capital goods were researched in detail. |
| Keywords: | import substitution, investment goods, capital goods, a model of demand for imports, Rotterdam model, the real effective exchange rate, sectoral EU and US sanctions, èìïîðòîçàìåùåíèå, òîâàðû èíâåñòèöèîííîãî íàçíà÷åíèÿ, êàïèòàëüíûå áëàãà, ìîäåëü ñïðîñà íà èìïîðò |
| Date: | 2017–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:061709&r=tra |
| By: | Dániel Baksa (Central European University and Center for Economic and Regional Studies); István Kónya (Center for Economic and Regional Studies and Central European University) |
| Abstract: | This paper views the growth and convergence process of the four Visegrad economies - the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia - through the lens of the open economy, stochastic neoclassical growth model. We use a unified framework to understand both the long-run convergence path and fluctuations around it. Our empirical exercise highlights both the role of initial conditions such as indebtedness and capital intensity, and random shocks in the growth process. In particular, we explore the importance of the external interest rate premium, and its role in driving investment and the trade balance. |
| Keywords: | stochastic growth, technology shocks, interest premium, small open economy, Bayesian estimation. |
| JEL: | E13 O11 O41 O47 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:266&r=tra |
| By: | Malakhov, Vladimir (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Simon, Mark (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The research describes how the European Union's migration policy has been used as a means of economic growth, and how the strategy of migration processes’ regulation was changing, depending on economic conditions. Through the study of instruments used by the national governments and the EU institutions in the field of migration control during the crisis period, the authors identify both positive and negative aspects of their experience. The specifics of the Russian situation is considered in the context of the "new immigration countries" in Europe. The authors analyze the transformations of the Russian migration policy, assess the situation on the Russian labor market and identify the key internal and external challenges that Russia is the current period. Based on the research results, the recommendations on policy measures that can contribute to the sustainable economic development of our country are formulated |
| Keywords: | ÅÑ, Ðîññèÿ, èììèãðàöèÿ, ìèãðàöèîííàÿ ïîëèòèêà, ðåãóëèðîâàíèå ðûíêà òðóäà, ýêîíîìè÷åñêîå ðàçâèòèå, ýêîíîìè÷åñêèé êðèçèñ, EU, Russia, immigration, migration policy, labour market regulation, economic development, economic crisis |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:051723&r=tra |
| By: | Ďurčová, Júlia; Mirdala, Rajmund |
| Abstract: | Offshoring representing one of the main characteristics of the current stage of globalization contributed to reduction of the demand for relative unskilled workers resulting in falling wages of unskilled labor in developed countries. The shift away from low-skilled workers is driven by offshoring to Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) countries However, the Slovak Republic, like other European countries experienced considerable skill upgrading of employment over past decade. The study of intertemporal sectorial development of employment and growth rate of person engaged clearly indicates a change in the structure of employment. Therefore it is interesting to examine how offshoring and domestic outsourcing influences these trends. In order to estimate the impact of offshoring on skill structure of labor demand in the Slovak Republic the system of cost share equations will be derived from translog cost function. The equations for different cost shares are estimated using seemingly unrelated regression (SUR). Our results indicate that offshoring contribution to the change of employment share in case of low and medium skill-levels was negative while positive for high-skilled labor demand. |
| Keywords: | offshoring, outsourcing, employment, translog cost function, skill level |
| JEL: | F14 F16 J31 |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79921&r=tra |
| By: | Olgun, Cenk |
| Abstract: | The European Union has been prizing itself for being the global leader in terms of climate change; its triptych approach and the 20-20-20 targets were certainly an enviable effort prior to the United Nations Convention. However, with the economic crisis having left its mark, there has been a decrease in ambitiousness and the paradigm is now dominated by competitiveness. The 2014 energy and climate package and its 2030 targets were therefore not only comparably unambitious but also nonbinding, with only GHG emission reduction being set. With the eastern countries traditionally being not very fond of climate policies, the thesis especially concentrates on where Poland and its coal-based energy system have stood as things developed and therefore assesses the role the country and the broader Visegrad Group had. Asking questions that get at the underlying reasons, the liberal intergovernmental framework is chosen to analyze how domestic preference building in Poland takes place, finding that the conventional energy sector has a tremendous impact on policy making. While Poland absorbed the directives to fit them into existing practices, without causing substantial structural changes, it applied a much more aggressive approach in the run up to the 2030 process, sending clear signals and thereby significantly contributing to the lowered ambitiousness of EU policies. Stemming not exclusively from a turn in the international environment, the learning process of the eastern Member States in the post-accession period played a decisive role in this development. |
| Keywords: | European Union,energy and climate policy,Poland |
| JEL: | Q28 Q48 Q54 Q58 K32 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ipewps:892017&r=tra |
| By: | Fei Teng (Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China); Frank Jotzo; Xin Wang |
| Abstract: | The electricity sector accounts for a large share of China’s carbon dioxide emissions and of the economy-wide abatement potential. China’s planned national emissions trading scheme would include electricity generation, as nearly all emissions trading schemes do. The critical difference is that in most existing carbon pricing systems the power sector operates with competitive markets and cost-based pricing, while the Chinese power industry still uses a highly regulated dispatch and pricing system. Together these limitations mean that the effect of a carbon price on China is limited in terms of the impact on operational decisions for existing power stations and in terms of the effects on investment decisions. We explore the channels of interaction between electricity market reform and carbon pricing in China, and provide quantitative estimates of the effects and interactions on electricity sector emissions. A probabilistic discrete choice model is used to simulate the behavior of investors in the power sector. The analysis indicates that market reform can help reduce emissions intensity, but to meet China’s 2030 targets for non-fossil fuel generation a low to moderate carbon price is also necessary; conversely, a carbon price will only be effective with market reform that provides flexibility in dispatch. Using our simplified quantitative analysis, the carbon price required for the same share of non-fossil fuel generation would be about twice as high without market reform. Combining market reform and a carbon price could achieve significant rates of decarbonization and is likely to be the most effective and most feasibly policy package to cut emissions from China’s power sector. |
| Keywords: | China, emissions trading, energy sector reform, policy interaction |
| JEL: | Q48 Q52 |
| Date: | 2017–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:ccepwp:1707&r=tra |
| By: | ZHANG Hongyong |
| Abstract: | Do political connections affect antidumping (AD) investigations? To address this question, we use antidumping filings data combined with micro data on Chinese manufacturing firms for the period 1998-2007. The political connections of a firm are defined by whether it has state-owned capital or whether it is under the administration of central or provincial government. Estimating a probit model of AD filings at the firm level, we find that strong political connections significantly increase the likelihood of AD petitions and affirmative final dumping decisions. State-owned enterprises, firms affiliated with the central or provincial government, low productivity firms, and large firms tend to file AD investigations in China. The industry-level estimation results also confirm that industries with a greater presence of state-owned enterprises are likely to receive trade protection from the Chinese government, controlling for import penetration, year, and industry fixed effects. |
| Date: | 2017–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:17092&r=tra |
| By: | Xin Deng |
| Abstract: | With the exponential growth of the national vehicle fleet in the last three decades, most cities in China are facing mounting pressure to tackle congestion and air pollution problems caused by motor vehicles. Beijing, the capital city, is a good case to study how municipal governments address those issues. To alleviate road congestion and pollution, the government has invested heavily in road infrastructure, advanced traffic management technology and also introduced stringent standards on vehicular emissions. However, city planners have been over-relying on command and control measures including travel demand management, which have proven to be costly and inefficient in controlling motor vehicle ownership and usage—the fundamental causes of congestion and emissions. Economic measures including road pricing and vehicle registration auction schemes are superior and should be adopted in travel demand management in the future. |
| Keywords: | congestion, air pollution, motor vehicles, China, travel demand management |
| Date: | 2017–02–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:appswp:201726&r=tra |
| By: | Krasnova, Gulnara (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The paper examines and evaluates the export potential of the Russian higher education system in the long term up to 2030. The main external and internal factors affecting the expansion and development of exports of Russian higher education are described, as well as a package of measures and mechanisms for attracting foreign students to study in Russia. |
| Date: | 2017–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:061701&r=tra |
| By: | Shulman, Ekaterina (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Maracha, Vyacheslav (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Katsaurova, Svetlana (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The problems of the establishment of the institution for assessing the regulatory impact in the Russian Federation are analyzed. The methodology of sociological research is presented, the materials of which reconstruct the position of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia. The possibilities of institutions for assessing the regulatory impact and assessing the actual impact as forms of expert and public participation in the process of lawmaking are considered. The key problems are analyzed and recommendations are developed to increase the effectiveness of public participation in the law-making process and decision-making. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:051740&r=tra |
| By: | Zubarev, Andrey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Potashnikîv, Vladimir (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Shilov, Kirill (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we investigate the determinants of economic development. We use several multi-country panel databases. We used the correlation of the basket and the structural model uranveny (SEM) as instrumentarium. We found that the most important factors for development are the institutional characteristics of the country. Other important factors are the involvement in world trade and the variables related to the economic and debt policy (transfers, subsidies, taxes, grants and so forth.), as well as with the private sector. Development is determined by such indicators as the GDP per capita in constant prices PPP, health care and education quality. From the forecast of estimated SEM model,we found that without a major institutional reform Russia risks sliding into a lower (by world standards) level of development in the medium run. |
| Keywords: | ýêîíîìè÷åñêîå ðàçâèòèå, ìîäåëè ñòðóêòóðíûõ óðàâíåíèé, economic development, SEM |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:051737&r=tra |
| By: | Christian Dustmann (University College London and CReAM); Francesco Fasani (Queen Mary University of London, CReAM, CEPR and IZA); Xin Meng (Australian National University, CReAM and IZA); Luigi Minale (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, CReAM and IZA) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the relation between individual migrations and the risk attitudes of other household members when migration is a household decision. We develop a simple model that implies that which member migrates depends on the distribution of risk attitudes among all household members, and that the risk diversification gain to other household members may induce migrations that would not take place in an individual framework. Using unique data for China on risk attitudes of internal (rural-urban) migrants and the families left behind, we empirically test three key implications of the model: (i) that conditional on migration gains, less risk averse individuals are more likely to migrate; (ii) that within households, the least risk averse individual is more likely to emigrate; and (iii) that across households, the most risk averse households are more likely to send migrants as long as they have at least one family member with sufficiently low risk aversion. Our results not only provide evidence that migration decisions are taken on a household level but also that the distribution of risk attitudes within the household affects whether a migration takes place and who will emigrate. |
| Keywords: | : risk aversion, internal migration, household decisions |
| JEL: | J61 R23 D81 |
| Date: | 2017–02–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csl:devewp:423&r=tra |
| By: | Konstantin A. Kholodilin (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Irina Krylova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Darya Kryutchenko (St. Petersburg State University, Russia) |
| Abstract: | In the urban economics, the distribution of people and real estate prices depends on the location of the central business district. As distance from the city center increases, both prices and population density diminish, for travel costs increase in terms of time and money. As manufacturing gradually leaves the cities, the importance of consumer amenities as attractors of population to the urban areas increases. The role of the business center is being taken over by the consumer center. This paper identies the location of the consumer center of St. Petersburg - the second largest city in Russia and its former capital. For this purpose using data from open sources on the Internet regarding the location of dierent types of urban amenities, the indices of their spatial density are computed. Using weights based on coefficients of spatial variation and surveys, the individual indices are aggregated to two general centrality indices. Their unique maxima correspond to the city center of St. Petersburg, which is located on Nevsky prospekt, between Fontanka river and Liteinyi prospekt. |
| Keywords: | St. Petersburg; urban amenities; consumer city center; 2D kernel density estimation. |
| JEL: | R14 R15 C43 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:165/ec/2017&r=tra |
| By: | Gordeev, Vlad (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Magomedov, Rustam (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Mikhailova, Tatiyana (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The existence of agglomeration effects is one of the most stable and universal empirical results in the modern economy. "Agglomeration effects" is a general term for all channels of influence of the geographical density of economic activity on the productivity of factors of production. The locomotive of modern economy is cities - places of concentration of the population, firms, market transactions. It is in the cities where most of the added value is created in industrial and post-industrial economies. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:051743&r=tra |
| By: | Tristan Kenderdine |
| Abstract: | China's transition economy experiment continues to rely heavily on state-driven industrial policy to structure the economy. In 2016, five-year plans on strategic emerging industries were formed by State Council ministries and transmitted to lower levels of government bureaucracy. Building on existing industrial geographic complementarities and technology clusters, developments were expected to dovetail with broader 13th Five-Year Plan and Made in China 2025 industrial policy trajectories. This article explores the policy program of industrial upgrading and innovation in national strategic emerging industries, regional innovation and industrial cluster plans, space and ocean industrial strategies and places China's policy trajectories for industrial development, technology innovation and upgrading in context of institutional economic analysis. |
| Keywords: | industrial policy, institutional economics, industrial clusters, China politics, space policy, ocean policy |
| Date: | 2017–05–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:appswp:201724&r=tra |
| By: | Pakhomov, Alexander (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Makarov, Andrei (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Bagdasarian, Kniaz (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | In this research the review of the activity of Russian delegation in the World Trade Organization into 2012-2016 is analyzed, as well as the preliminary results of the impact of membership in the organization in the foreign economic sector of Russia. The active search for a solutions and directions of actions on the intermediate-term prospect in this significant sphere for elaborating the foreign economic policy of Russia is required in the present stage. Over the intermediate-term long term – in proportion to the possible formation of the bases of the new economy - will grow demand and significance for the “WTO factor” in Russia. In turn, the synergetic effect can arise, which will make it possible to carry out the effective foreign economic policy of the country taking into account the interests of the progressive development of national economy. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:051724&r=tra |
| By: | Yuzhakov, Vladimir (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Dobrolyubova, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | Improving the effectiveness of supervisory and oversight activities is a key area of public administration reform both in Russia and abroad. However, approaches to assessing the effectiveness of state control are in the making. The paper presents developed methodological recommendations for assessing the effectiveness of control and supervisory activities. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:051731&r=tra |
| By: | Alicia García-Herrero; Jianwei Xu |
| Abstract: | Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are one of the main obstacles preventing China and the European Union from agreeing a bilateral investment agreement (BIT). Given the benefits that both China and EU could obtain from a BIT, the question of SOEs should be addressed in the most effective way. We examine the main differences between Chinese and European SOEs, in terms of their sectoral coverage and, most importantly, their corporate governance. We argue that preferential market access for Chinese SOEs in China is the key to their undue competitive advantage globally, and is also the reason why global consumers might not necessarily benefit from Chinese SOEs in terms of welfare gain. Preferential market access in China, rather than ownership of SOEs, should be the key factor when evaluating the undue advantage enjoyed by Chinese corporates because private companies with ties to the Chinese government might also benefit from preferential market access. We also offer a checklist of issues for EU-China investment talks in relation to Chinese SOEs. First, creating barriers to prevent Chinese companies acquiring European assets will not solve the problem. Instead, equal market access in China is a much better goal to pursue in order to reduce the seemingly unlimited resources that Chinese SOEs seem to have to compete overseas. Second, bringing Chinese corporate governance closer to global market principles is also essential to ensure European and Chinese corporates operate on an equal footing in their cross-border investment decisions. |
| Date: | 2017–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bre:polcon:20992&r=tra |
| By: | Zharkov, Vasiliy (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Malakhov, Vladimir (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Simon, Mark (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Letnyakov, Denis (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | This paper is devoted to the political and theoretical aspects of Russian-Western relations. Existing contradictions and conflicts, as well as ways to resolve them are considered in the context of the classical approaches that are relevant to the modern theories of international relations, represented in the World academic practice. Key issues related to the general issue of Russian-Western relations, considered in the study were differences in values, the anarchical nature of international politics, the role of geopolitics, Europe and the Russian identity, possible ways to restore trust in negotiations and relationship. |
| Date: | 2017–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:061705&r=tra |
| By: | Nešporová, Alena |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the factors contributing to diversity in labour market performance to help dentify both obstacles for jobless persons to (re-)enter the labour market as well as the direction of policies that could help in this respect and, thus, guide policy makers. The analysis focuses on five Central European countries – Germany, Austria, Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia – that, despite being similar with regard to their economic structure, industrial traditions and culture, closely linked through trade and production chains and therefore prone to synchronized economic fluctuations, have very different labour market performance, including during and after the recent economic recession. |
| Keywords: | long term unemployment, employment policy, Austria, Czech Republic, Germany, Poland, Slovakia |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:994956892902676&r=tra |
| By: | Knobel, Alexander (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Baeva, Marina (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | This research provides review of impose trade remedies (antidumping, countervailing measures, safeguard measures) and conduct relative investigation as well as sanitary and phytosanitary measures (SPS) against certain trade partner by different countries in 1995–2015. This research considers theoretical aspects, empirical studies of introduction of trade measures in integration blocks like NAFTA, MERCOSUR, ASEAN, Pacific Alliance, EAEU, TTP (countries-signers) and RCEP (negotiated parties) against members and third countries. Furthermore, trade measures imposed by Russia and imposed against Russia are considered. |
| Keywords: | international trade, trade and economic cooperation, integration blocks, free trade agreements (FTA), tariff and non-tariff measures, antidumping, countervailing measures, safeguard measures, sanitary and phytosanitary measures (SPS) |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:051735&r=tra |
| By: | Simionescu, Mihaela |
| Abstract: | The main aim of this paper is to provide forecast intervals for inflation and unemployment rate in Romania, bringing methodological novelties in the construction and evaluation of the prediction intervals. Considering the period 2004-2017 as forecast horizon, only few intervals included the registered values on the variables, but in the last stage when all the prior information has been used, the forecast intervals were very short. The proposed Bayesian technique for assessing prediction intervals was better than traditional approaches based on statistic tests. |
| Keywords: | forecast interval,Bayesian interval,inflation,unemployment |
| JEL: | C11 C13 C53 E37 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:82&r=tra |
| By: | Zubarev, Andrey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Polbin, Andrey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The article studies macroeconomic effects of reducing oil export duty in the neoclassical general equilibrium model for the Russian economy. It is shown that in the current economic environment with low oil prices, this tax reform can be virtually painless for the economy. At the same time, if considered economic policy measure will force the oil refining industry to modernise its production facilities, there will be a positive effect on output in the economy and the welfare of domestic economic agents in the long run. |
| Keywords: | ýêñïîðòíàÿ ïîøëèíà íà íåôòü, íàëîãîâûé ìàíåâð, äèíàìè÷åñêèå ìîäåëè îáùåãî ðàâíîâåñèÿ, ðîññèéñêàÿ ýêîíîìèêà, oil export duty, tax reform, DSGE model for the Russian economy |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:051734&r=tra |
| By: | Uzun, Vasily (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Svetlov, Nikolai (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Shagaida, Natalia (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Loginova, Daria (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Shishkina, Ekaterina (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | Basing on the analysis of Russian and foreign practices of grain market regulation and computer experiments on the imitation model of the Russian wheat market, the paper proposes the reasons why the measures to regulate the Russian grain market did not reach, as a rule, the goals set forth in the Law on Agricultural Development adopted in 2006. Proposals for improving regulatory mechanisms are justified. The most important of them: commodity and procurement interventions should be carried out according to the rules established by law and according to pre-approved, and not at current exchange prices; It is advisable to regulate commodity and procurement interventions in the grain market using rules that are transparent to the market and allow independent monitoring of their implementation; The formula for annual specification of borders of a price corridor is offered. In the process of improving the system of regulation of the national grain market, it is suggested to follow a strategy aimed at moving in the long term from the system of commodity and purchasing interventions to the system of compensation for price losses similar to that introduced in the United States in 2014. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:051736&r=tra |
| By: | Pantea, Smaranda |
| Abstract: | Rising minimum wages is a popular policy used to increase the income of low wage workers, reduce inequalities and improve labour market participation. However, there are concerns among policy makers about its possible negative effects on employment. This paper examines the effect of minimum wage increases on regional employment, using a panel of 42 NUTS III regions from Romania over a recent period, 2008-2014, which includes the economic crisis and the recovery. The results show that, on average, increases in minimum wages had an insignificant effect on employment during the period studied. The results are robust to different specifications. They also highlight the importance of a strong manufacturing base for raising regional employment. |
| Keywords: | employment, minimum wage, industrial policy, regional labour markets. |
| JEL: | J23 J31 R23 R28 |
| Date: | 2017–05–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79863&r=tra |
| By: | Bukvić, Rajko; Pavlović, Radica; Gajić, Aleksandar |
| Abstract: | The Republic of Serbia is characterized by an unsatisfactory macroeconomic environment. Under the conditions of an evident shortage of liquid assets, the financial capital has moved from real to the financial sector, which led companies to over-indebtedness and shutdown of their own capacities. Therefore, capital investments largely depend on internal financing sources and the ability of companies to internally generate funds for investments. In this regard, an emphasis is placed on the difference in the assessment of the company’s investment capacity based on internal financing sources, which are measured using static and dynamic indicators in order to prove the necessity of applying dynamic coefficients, which are unfortunately not present in our domestic practice. The paper examines and proves the advantages of the use of the dynamic approach for such analyses using the example of energy sector, which is one of the most important branches in Serbian economy. |
| Keywords: | dynamic and static coefficients, dynamic analysis, investments, financing, sources, dispersion analysis |
| JEL: | E22 G17 G31 G32 M40 M49 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79810&r=tra |
| By: | Barinova, Vera (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Eremkin, V.A. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Lanshina, T.A. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the nature of governmental control and supervisory activities and regulation, including the differences between the domestic and foreign approaches to these definitions. The authors show the contradictions in the approaches to the definition of control and supervision in Russia, identify their main characteristics. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:051722&r=tra |
| By: | Lipina, Svetlana (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Smirnova, Olga (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Agapova, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Lipina, A.V. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | In the world community, some experience of the development of the "green economy" has already been gained. However, in conditions when Russia faces new problems and challenges, serious analysis and search for rational forms of combining objective indicators and criteria for their application in the projects for the development of a "green" economy, taking into account the specifics of the economy and the availability of a resource-resource potential of Russia, are required. |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:051726&r=tra |
| By: | Joseph Mazur and Ance-Elena Ursu |
| Abstract: | This article seeks to understand how China has managed to achieve such high rates of growth over the past four decades despite the absence of a veritable rule of law. A large body of research suggests that a strong rule of law is a key prerequisite for sustained economic development, but China's unique political economy which vests limited power in its judiciary seems to defy conventional wisdom on this count. Taking as a starting point Yang Yao's concept of ‘disinterested government’, that is, a government that eschews differentiated interests within a society in favour of a concerted focus on national development, the authors examine the mechanisms by which Chinese leadership has maintained extraordinary growth without the benefit of the rule of law. Specifically, this article argues that the defining features of a disinterested government fulfil many of the same roles as the rule of law from a developmental perspective. |
| Keywords: | rule of law, legal reform, corruption |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:appswp:201728&r=tra |
| By: | Li, Cheng |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we compile China’s household balance sheet and apply this perspective to the analysis of household financial conditions. Specifically, we first address some technical issues on the balance sheet accounts, and detail the estimations of two important asset items, “dwellings” and “automobiles.” Next, through reading the sheets, we provide an international comparative analysis, and show: (1) China’s households are still on their early stage of wealth accumulation, and this trend is associated with a changing structure in favour of financial assets. (2) Although being subject to relatively low insolvency and liquidity risks, the sector has experienced, generally contrary to major developed countries, a climbing leverage cycle since the global financial crisis. These findings imply that China’s policymakers should, on the one hand, make further efforts to help households accumulate wealth with an improved structure in terms of liquidity and risk diversification, and on the other hand need to pay high attention to the increasing household financial stress and the potential risk contagion. |
| Keywords: | Balance sheet; Household sector; Wealth accumulation; Debt risks; Financial deepening |
| JEL: | E01 E21 O57 |
| Date: | 2017–06–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79838&r=tra |
| By: | Mirdala, Rajmund; Kameník, Martin |
| Abstract: | The real output deterioration, high fiscal deficits and increased sovereign debt burden represents key phenomena that affected the maneuverability of fiscal authorities in the early crisis years. Controversy between fiscal sustainability and fiscally driven economic recovery fueled a large number of academic and policy discussions about the appropriate response of governments to the crisis challenges. Empirical literature provides mixed evidence about the effects of fiscal policy adjustments on the macroeconomic performance. Moreover, pro-cyclical patterns in fiscal policies of many countries during the pre-crisis period did not reveal clear lessons learned that would be beneficial for fiscal authorities during the crisis years. In the paper we examine effects of the fiscal policy shocks in CE3 (the Slovak Republic, the Czech Republic and Hungary) within different stages of the business cycle by employing threshold vector autoregression (TVAR) model. We calculate fiscal multipliers and generalized impulse-response functions to assess the responsiveness of the real output to the fiscal policy adjustments. The main objective is to determine whether effects of the fiscal policy shocks differ during expansion and recession. Our results indicate that the size of fiscal multipliers and responsiveness of the real output are generally higher for spending fiscal shocks while effects of revenue fiscal shocks are much less dynamic in all three countries. Moreover, results differs between upper (expansion) and lower (recession) regime as well as for the per-crisis and crisis periods. |
| Keywords: | fiscal policy, threshold VAR, structural shocks, fiscal multipliers, generalized impulse-response function |
| JEL: | C32 E62 H60 |
| Date: | 2017–06–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79918&r=tra |
| By: | Mihai, Florin-Constantin |
| Abstract: | The paper aims to examine the changes in the rural waste management sector at regional scale since the Romania adhesion to the EU in 2007. Traditional waste management based on the mixed waste collection and waste disposal often on improper sites prevailed in municipal waste management options of transitional economies across the globe. The lack of formal waste collection services in rural areas has encouraged the open dumping or backyard burning. The paper analyses the improvements and challenges of local authorities in order to fulfill the new EU requirements in this sector supported by data analysis at local administrative unit levels and field observations. Geographical analysis is compulsory in order to reveal the local disparities. The paper performs an assessment of waste collection issues across 78 rural municipalities within Neamt County. This sector is emerging in rural areas of Eastern Europe, but is far from an efficient municipal waste management system based on the waste hierarchy concept. |
| Keywords: | waste collection, waste management, municipal waste, rural areas, EU, |
| JEL: | H00 I18 K32 Q51 Q53 Q56 R11 R53 R58 |
| Date: | 2017–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79883&r=tra |
| By: | Khac Giang Nguyen, Quang Thai Nguyen and Thanh Tung Nguyen |
| Abstract: | Non-profit institutions have long been believed to significantly contribute to good governance practice, particularly in transitional or authoritarian countries. Nevertheless, there has been a lack of sufficient empirical evidence to support that claim. This article uses Vietnam as a case study to examine the linkage between a rising number of non-profit institutions and the improvement of good governance practice by analysing impacts of non-profit institutions' development on government's transparency at the provincial level from 2011 to 2014. To do so, the article employs pooled ordinary least squares, fixed effects and random effects models with different sets of control variables. On the basis of the quantitative results, we conclude that the rise of non-profit institutions does have a positive impact on the quality of governance in Vietnam, at least in terms of fostering its transparency. |
| Keywords: | Vietnam, non-profit institutions, good governance, transparency, panel data |
| Date: | 2017–05–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:appswp:201721&r=tra |
| By: | Michal Brzezinski |
| Abstract: | In recent years, growing economic inequality has become one of the most debated social and economic problems in the world. Over the last three decades, most OECD countries have recorded a pronounced rise in income inequality. A number of researchers, politicians and economic commentators have suggested that the level of inequality has passed the tipping point beyond which economic growth may be weakened, social mobility limited, the social divide exacerbated and political power permanently concentrated in the hands of the wealthy. This paper analyses the multiple dimensions of economic inequality in Poland. Subsequent parts of the paper focus on: wage dispersion, income inequality, the evolution of wage dispersion and income inequality in Poland since 1989, wealth inequality, inequality of opportunity, relative poverty. |
| Keywords: | income inequality, top income shares, wage dispersion, wealth inequality, inequality of opportunity, Poland |
| JEL: | D63 P36 |
| Date: | 2017–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ibt:ppaper:pp012017&r=tra |
| By: | Tirziu, Andreea-Maria |
| Abstract: | In Romania, nearly half the population lives in rural areas, therefore it is difficult to associate concepts like smart cities and Internet of Things to the local government’s priority list. Nonetheless, recently there have been various initiatives to increase access to information using ICT methods in the rural communities as well. The purpose of this paper is not to exhaustively measure the already adopted means, but simply to provide a series of items considered barriers to ICT projects meant to contribute to these communities’ development. By researching the studies conducted so far (in Romania, there are about 2700 communes, these being the lowest administrative units), it was observed that the digital divide is found in 100% of these areas. At the urban level, mainly in the big cities, pilot projects for developing digital literacy among the senior population had a relatively high success. This type of programs has been initiated at the level of the communes with higher living standards, generally the ones located near large cities. Their success, though surely less visible than in the cities, is notable. The majority of these programs have the educational and health fields as targets. This article aims to show these programs’ implementation degree in Romania, providing as examples the most successful cases that help the social innovation process. The intention is to generate a list of objectives that the initiators of these programs have to take into consideration during the programs’ preparatory process. |
| Keywords: | social innovation, rural areas’ development, living labs |
| JEL: | O35 |
| Date: | 2017–06–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79870&r=tra |
| By: | Gao, Lin |
| Abstract: | Given the importance of trust, exploring what may affect trust then becomes attractive. The main purpose of this paper is to explain general trust quantitatively. This paper from, but not limited to, a perspective of original institutional economics elaborates what may affect general trust and proposes three reasonable hypotheses first, and then uses CGSS 2013 dataset to execute ordered logit regression of general trust on some selected variables. It is found that taken advantage has a strongly significant negative impact on general trust; fairness, moral satisfaction, opinion similarity, leisure time for rest and leisure time for learning have strongly significant positive impacts on general trust; public security problem, however, has a negative but not significant impact on general trust. These core explanatory variables improve predictive capability by 4 percent. This paper also compares general trust and trust in strangers, and regress trust in strangers on the same independent variables of general trust. There are two main differences: the first is that the negative impact of public security problem gets significant for trust in strangers; the second is that the significant impact of leisure time for resting gets negative for trust in strangers. |
| Keywords: | general trust, trust in strangers, original institutional economics, fairness, morality, opinion, public security, leisure time |
| JEL: | B52 C1 |
| Date: | 2017–06–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79948&r=tra |
| By: | Vu, Binh |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates whether population and international trade, along with energy consumption, are the main factors for environmental damage in China during the period 1971-2011. The stationary analysis is examined by the Zivot–Andrews unit root test and the ARDL bounds testing approach is used for a long run relationship between the series in the presence of structural breaks. The causality between CO2 emissions, energy consumption, economic growth, population and international trade is examined by the VECM Granger causality technique. Our results show that the selected variables are cointegrated; it means that the long run relationship exists in the presence of structural breaks. The empirical findings indicate that in long run, energy consumption and population increase CO2 emissions, while in short run, energy consumption and international trade decrease CO2 emissions. The VECM causality analysis shows that CO2 emissions Granger cause energy consumption, while energy consumption and population Granger cause trade. The VECM analysis also indicates the feedback hypothesis between trade and CO2 emissions. Policy recommendations are made following the obtained results. |
| Keywords: | CO2 emissions; population; international trade; energy consumption. |
| JEL: | C22 O44 Q43 Q53 Q56 |
| Date: | 2017–02–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:79773&r=tra |