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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Daniel Baksa (Institute of Economics, Research Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences and Central European University); István Konya (Institute of Economics - Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences and Central European University) |
| Abstract: | This paper views the growth and convergence process of the four Visegrad economies - the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia - through the lens of the open economy, stochastic neoclassical growth model. We use a unified framework to understand both the long-run convergence path and fluctuations around it. Our empirical exercise highlights both the role of initial conditions such as indebtedness and capital intensity, and random shocks in the growth process. In particular, we explore the importance of the external interest rate premium, and its role in driving investment and the trade balance. |
| Keywords: | stochastic growth, technology shocks, interest premium, small open economy, Bayesian estimation |
| JEL: | E13 O11 O41 O47 |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:has:discpr:1712&r=tra |
| By: | BrinduÅŸa-Mihaela Radu (Athenaeum University of Bucharest, Romania) |
| Abstract: | In the context of economic transition, the labor market in Romania has undergone significant changes in the volume and structure of the main indicators of labor. After 1990, fewer inhabitants of Romania, due to the negative natural growth and massive emigration has resulted in reduction of the active population and employment in all eight development regions in Romania. The paper analyzes the phenomenon of labor employment at regional level. In essence, they were followed two issues: public participation in economic and social areas and developments and structures active population. It also highlighted the differences and disparities between developing regions of Romania in the use of labor in order to identify conclusions that can improve regional development policies and enhancing effective action to fill labor resources available. |
| Keywords: | labor market, employed population, regional gaps |
| JEL: | J01 J43 J80 |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:wpaper:17&r=tra |
| By: | Ning Mao (China-ASEAN International College Dhurakij Pundit University Bangkok, Thailand); Michael McAleer (Department of Quantitative Finance National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan And Discipline of Business Analytics University of Sydney Business School, Australia And Econometric Institute Erasmus School of Economics Erasmus University Rotterdam, Netherlands and Department of Quantitative Economics Complutense University of Madrid, Spain and Institute of Advanced Sciences Yokohama National University, Japan.) |
| Abstract: | Under anti-globalization and isolationism, China is seeking to portray itself as a new leader for globalization under the banner of the Silk Road initiative. Meanwhile, China’s traditional and comparatively advantaged industry, silk, has faced dire predicaments and challenges for long time, and needs a transformation in terms of initiatives. Throughout history, the prosperity arising from silk was supposed to represent a microcosm of Chinese society. This paper searches the breakthrough point to improve the current dilemma of Chinese silk enterprises; uses a Case Study for inductive reasoning that is feasible for marketing strategies; and provides a strategy to help Chinese silk enterprises to transform their market positioning and operating modes to obtain better development opportunities. The paper also analyzes the new external environment based on the “One Belt, One Road” principle, which is of crucial importance for the implementation of new marketing strategies. |
| Keywords: | China, Silk, Company Strategy, National Strategy, Transformation, Chinese Trade. |
| JEL: | O24 P33 Q27 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucm:doicae:1713&r=tra |
| By: | Gundars Kulikovskis (FIDEA (Financial and Management Consulting Company)); Diana Petraityte (FIDEA (Financial and Management Consulting Company)); Stamenov Blagoy (European Commission - DG JRC) |
| Abstract: | The 2016 series of the RIO Country Report analyses and assesses the development and performance of the national research and innovation system of the EU-28 Member States and related policies with the aim of monitoring and evaluating the EU policy implementation as well as facilitating policy learning in the Member States. |
| Keywords: | R&I system, R&I policy, ERA, innovation union, Semester analysis, Latvia |
| JEL: | I20 O30 Z18 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc105892&r=tra |
| By: | Ferrarini , Benno (Asian Development Bank); Hinojales , Marthe (Asian Development Bank); Scaramozzino , Pasquale (SOAS, University of London) |
| Abstract: | Total debt in the People’s Republic of China has increased significantly in recent years, mostly on account of nonfinancial corporate debt. Earning and the financial performance of corporate firms have weakened, and so has the asset quality of the financial sector. This paper assesses the financial fragility of the Chinese economy by looking at risk factors in the nonfinancial sector. We apply quantile regressions to a rich dataset of Chinese listed companies contained in Standard & Poor’s IQ Capital database. We find higher sensitivity over time of corporate leverage to some of its key determinants, particularly for firms at the upper margin of the distribution. In particular, profitability increasingly acts as a curb on corporate leverage. At a time of falling profitability across the Chinese nonfinancial corporate sector, this eases the brake on leverage and may contribute to its continuing increase. |
| Keywords: | corporate debt; debt sustainability; panel quantile regression; People’s Republic of China |
| JEL: | G01 G21 H30 H60 |
| Date: | 2017–01–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0509&r=tra |
| By: | Yang, Yang (Anderson School of Management, University of California, Los Angeles) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of highway expansion on aggregate productivity growth and sectoral reallocation between cities in China. To do so, I construct a unique dataset of bilateral transportation costs between Chinese cities, digitized highway network maps, and firm-level census. I first derive and estimate a market access measure for cities in China from 1995 to 2005. I then examine the channels through which the highway infrastructure affected economic outcomes. The results suggest that highways promoted aggregate productivity growth by facilitating the entry of new firms and reallocation among existing firms. I estimate the aggregate economic impact of China's national highway system and find that eliminating all highways in China would decrease aggregate productivity by 3.2%. There is also evidence that the national highway system led to a sectoral reallocation between cities in China. |
| Keywords: | Transport infrastructure, trade, highway, productivity, China |
| JEL: | F10 H54 O18 O40 R10 |
| Date: | 2017–05–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:xjt:rieiwp:2017-08&r=tra |
| By: | Péter Bauer (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary)); Marianna Endrész (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary)) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates corporate fixed investment in Hungary between 2001 and 2014 using firm-level data. We analyse the composition, heterogeneity and the drivers of corporate investment. Investments in Hungary are highly concentrated and dominated by large and foreign-owned companies. The period investigated can be split into three parts: the 2000s with moderate performance, the crisis period, and the period of weak recovery in 2013-2014. We find that structural problems were already seen before the crisis: the investment rate was stagnant and investment activity declined. However, the performance of firms was heterogeneous, as smaller and middle-aged firms became less active and dynamic. During the crisis, investment performance markedly deteriorated. Signs of recovery were seen in 2013 and 2014, but the investment rate remained subdued. We show that the ageing of the group of smaller firms played an important role in their weak investment performance, while the lack of new entrants contributed to the sluggishness of the recovery. We did not find any evidence that changes in individual sectors’ weight in the economy contributed to the low corporate investment rate or the weakening activity. |
| Keywords: | corporate investment, micro data |
| JEL: | D22 E22 G31 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mnb:opaper:2017/131&r=tra |
| By: | Elena Pelinescu (Institute for Economic Forecasting of the Romanian Academy); Mihaela Simionescu (Institute for Economic Forecasting of the Romanian Academy) |
| Abstract: | Recent economic and financial crisis has raised a new stock of questions to the economic policy makers regarding the framework definition of central bank activity. The aim of this paper is to explain how the economic and financial crisis has been influencing the monetary policies and what was the impact of changing the monetary variables and ISD on the Romanian economy. The different econometric models for Romania showed that after the crisis generated shock, the variations of foreign direct investments had an influence of over 10% on the domestic credit variations, while changing the interest rates had little influence in domestic credit variations, a possible explanation being the heterogeneous character of private credit. There was a clear long term causality relation between monetary mass need and real GDP, which is aligned with existing economic theory. Also, during the economic and financial crisis and shortly after it, the need for monetary mass had a slightly negative impact on the GDP, which can be explained by the fact that credit was used more for local consumption and less for investments that would generate economic growth. |
| Keywords: | economic crisis, monetary policy interest rate, Foreign direct investment, monetary policy |
| JEL: | C51 C53 |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:wpaper:15&r=tra |
| By: | Kattel Rainer (Tallinn University of Technology); Stamenov Blagoy (European Commission - DG JRC) |
| Abstract: | The 2016 series of the RIO Country Report analyses and assesses the development and performance of the national research and innovation system of the EU-28 Member States and related policies with the aim of monitoring and evaluating the EU policy implementation as well as facilitating policy learning in the Member States. |
| Keywords: | R&I system, R&I policy, ERA, innovation union, Semester analysis, Estonia |
| JEL: | I20 O30 Z18 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc105895&r=tra |
| By: | Cornelia Dumitru (Institute of National Economy, Romanian Academy) |
| Abstract: | Migration is one of the predominant phenomena in debating core issues of politics, economy and society at the beginning of the 21st century. In order to understand the complexity of this phenomenon, it is necessary to investigate its main determinants that maintained from historical perspective some of the characteristics from the beginning of the 20th century; however, at increased complexity, in the context of constant changes of geopolitical and economic regional configurations. The European enlargement towards the central and eastern part of the continent brought about also changes regarding increased demographic and economic risks in the absence of global migration governance, but also due to the frailty of national institutions in the field of migration and labor market. The paper intends to briefly enumerate main (macro)economic and demographic risks for Romania by underpinning the contribution of institutional factors to improving the management of this phenomenon at national level. |
| Keywords: | migration, demographic risk, labor market, determinant push and pull factors |
| JEL: | J10 J11 J61 N34 N44 O49 P29 P39 |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:wpaper:8&r=tra |
| By: | Dai, Shuanping |
| Abstract: | China's economics education started at the beginning of the 20th century, when China was learning from the Western civilization, and accordingly economics curriculum system was introduced as well. As the communist government was established in 1949, economics education in China was interrupted, started to follow a conventional Marxism, and almost acted as ideological education approach and as a tool to economic plan. The fundamental economic reform from 1980s brought modern economics back to China, and from 1990s, economists who were educated in Europe and the USA introduced Western Economics, of which majority are neoliberalism, to China's Universities, and the popular economics textbooks and curriculum prevailed in China as well. This made the existing socialism economics education struggling in the research evaluation and classroom, although the Communist Party still is giving strong support to Marxism. The 2005 debate between Marxist and Neoliberalism actually reflected two monism tried to lead whole China's economics education. A hidden issue behind the learning from the West is that China's economists are keeping pursuing an approach based on China's reality, which in particular has been reinforced by the recent impressive economic success. Generally, China's economists have a common sense of that China did not follow a single economic theory to lead its reform and development, and believe that China's success can contribute to economics, although none tells what is a China's idiosyncratic economics. Hence, an unknown monism might be emerging in China, but pluralism may act as a channel for understanding Chinese economy, and accordingly be the essential parts of China's idiosyncrasy economics, which will be a new monism. |
| Keywords: | China's Idiosyncratic Economics,Pluralism in Economics Education,Monism,Marxian Political Economy |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:udedao:1112017&r=tra |
| By: | Tibor Dory (Széchenyi Istvan University, Gyor); Laszlo Csonka (IKU Innovation Research Centre, Budapest); Milena Slavcheva (European Commission - DG JRC) |
| Abstract: | The 2016 series of RIO Country Reports analyse and assess the policy and the national research and innovation system developments in relation to national policy priorities and the EU policy agenda with special focus on ERA and Innovation Union. The executive summaries of these reports put forward the main challenges of the research and innovation systems. |
| Keywords: | research and innovation, Hungary, innovation system |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc105927&r=tra |
| By: | Hrvoje Šimović (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the impact of public debt level and (un)sustainability on fiscal spending effectiveness in Croatia. Public debt sustainability is analyzed using standard indicators of fiscal vulnerability and fiscal stability, accompanied with identification of regime changes in the public debt trajectory. Public debt sustainability analysis is used to analyze trends and tendencies, as well as to indicate periods of fiscal unsustainability in Croatia in period from 2001 to 2015. Using switching regression and SVAR approach it is also empirically tested how public debt level affects the effectiveness of fiscal policy in Croatia in the same period. Results show a negative impact of recession on public debt sustainability and confirm the main thesis that public debt level significantly affects and reduces the effectiveness of fiscal policy in Croatia. |
| Keywords: | public debt, fiscal policy, Croatia |
| JEL: | H68 H50 E62 |
| Date: | 2017–05–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zag:wpaper:1705&r=tra |
| By: | Fungáčová, Zuzana; Weill, Laurent |
| Abstract: | Trust in banks is essential to financial system effectiveness. This study examines the determinants of trust in banks in China. Using the most recent wave of the World Values Survey, which included information on trust in banks from the survey in China in 2012, we perform ordered logit estimations to investigate the potential influence of a large set of individual and provincial indicators on trust in banks. We observe the influence of certain sociodemographic indicators. Membership in the Communist Party and living in a rural area are negatively associated with trust in banks. Age and satisfaction with financial situation contribute to higher trust in banks, while being married and having a higher level of education tend to lower trust in banks. Access to information regardless of the type of media disseminating the information newspapers, television, internet) seem to have no impact on trust in banks. Economic values influence trust in banks. In particular, individuals who favor inequality as an incentive for individual effort or support an expanded government ownership role in the economy tend to trust banks more. |
| JEL: | G21 O16 P34 |
| Date: | 2017–06–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bof:bofitp:2017_009&r=tra |
| By: | Tomasz (Faculty of Economics, University of Gdansk; Institute for Development); Anna Golejewska (Faculty of Economics, University of Gdansk) |
| Abstract: | Poland’s innovation performance is unsatisfactory. In the context of the required shift of the present mostly-extensive growth paradigm to more knowledge and innovation-intensive one has to take into account the regional variation in innovative and economic activity in this middle-sized open economy in order to fine-tune its regional development and innovation policies. Using the firm-level data for manufacturing sector aggregated to NUTS3 regions as well as firm-level data from a unique qualitative survey carried out by the Institute for Development we try to identify the determinants of variation in innovative activity of firms within Poland in order to account for regional differences in particular between metropolitan and non-metropolitan regions. The analysis at aggregated NUTS3 level does not bring satisfactory results. The difference between metropolitan and non-metropolitan regions is statistically insignificant and the overall results are mixed. In the second step, we apply more sophisticated econometric methods controlling for firm-specific, sector-specific and region-specific features as suggested in the literature of the subject identifying the positive effect of location within metropolitan regions on the innovative performance of companies. Furthermore, the results point to the significance of firm-specific, internal, as well as region-specific – factors external to a firm, nonetheless, supporting the notion of regional innovation systems in which firms are embedded. |
| Keywords: | innovation, regional innovation system, regional economic performance, firm-level, logit model, Poisson model, negative binomial model |
| JEL: | O30 R11 R12 R58 C21 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gda:wpaper:1701&r=tra |
| By: | Nikolova, Milena (IZA); Popova, Olga (CERGE-EI) |
| Abstract: | Despite the burgeoning happiness economics literature, scholars have largely ignored explorations of how individuals or countries translate given resources into well-being. Using a balanced panel on 91 countries from Gallup Analytics between 2009–2014 and borrowing insights from production theory, we investigate whether nations in our sample efficiently convert their current resources (i.e. income, education and health) into subjective well-being. Our results imply that well-being efficiency gains are possible worldwide. We find that unemployment and involuntary part-time employment are associated with lower efficiency, while good institutions as proxied by the rule of law, as well as social support and freedom perceptions improve it. Within-country investigations for Bulgaria – an upper-middle-income country that often lurks at the bottom of the international well-being rankings – demonstrate that efficiency is lower among the unemployed, divorced/separated, widowed, the old, large households and those with children, while living in a city, freedom, generosity and social support improve efficiency. This paper provides the first evidence from an international panel concerning the issue of whether higher well-being levels are possible with current resources and raises policy-relevant questions about the appropriate instruments to improve well-being efficiency. |
| Keywords: | happiness, subjective well-being, efficiency analysis, conversion efficiency, comparative analysis |
| JEL: | D60 I31 O15 P52 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10774&r=tra |
| By: | Agne Paliokaite (Visionary Analytics); Elena González Verdesoto (European Commission/DG JRC) |
| Abstract: | The 2016 series of RIO Country Reports analyse and assess the policy and the national research and innovation system developments in relation to national policy priorities and the EU policy agenda with special focus on ERA and Innovation Union. The executive summaries of these reports put forward the main challenges of the research and innovation systems. |
| Keywords: | R&I system, R&I policy, ERA, innovation union, European Semester analysis, Lithuania |
| JEL: | I20 O30 Z18 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc105889&r=tra |
| By: | Drygalla, Andrej |
| Abstract: | Russian monetary policy has been challenged by large and continuous private capital outflows and a sharp drop in oil prices during 2014, with both ongoings having put a significant depreciation pressure on the ruble and having led the central bank to eventually give up its exchange rate management strategy. Against this background, this paper estimates a small open economy model for Russia, featuring an oil price sector and extended by a specification of the foreign exchange market to correctly account for systematic central bank interventions. We find that shocks to the oil price and private capital flows substantially affect domestic variables such as inflation, output and the exchange rate. Simulations of the model for the estimated actual strategy and five alternative regimes suggest that the vulnerability of the Russian economy to external shocks can substantially be lowered by adopting some form of an inflation targeting strategy. Foreign exchange intervention-based policy strategies to target the nominal exchange rate or the ruble price of oil, on the other hand, prove inferior to the policy in place. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy,exchange rate interventions,oil price,capital flows |
| JEL: | E52 F31 F41 G15 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:142017&r=tra |
| By: | Nizalova, Olena Y. (University of Kent); Norton, Edward C. (University of Michigan) |
| Abstract: | With periodic recessions and the rising costs of health care, it is important to know how labor market participation and insecurity affects health outcomes. Yet, this line of research faces a number of methodological challenges which this paper aims to address. We turn to Ukraine's experience after the col-lapse of the USSR to investigate how exogenous labor market shocks during severe recessions affect men's body mass index (BMI) and health-related behaviors. We use growth curve models to analyze BMI trajectories from 2003 to 2007 and find that past exogenous shocks (e.g., plant closings, bankruptcies, restructuring, and privatization) from 1986 to 2003 significantly change the BMI-age relationship for men. We also find a long-lasting effect on drinking behavior that is decreasing with age, while the effect on the probability of smoking is constant across all ages. At the same time, there is no effect on the probability of engaging in vigorous or moderate physical activity. |
| Keywords: | job loss, labour market exclusion, lay-offs, recession, BMI, growth curve, life course |
| JEL: | I12 J21 J65 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10776&r=tra |
| By: | Todorova Angelina (CASTRA Bulgaria); Slavcheva Milena (European Commission - DG JRC) |
| Abstract: | The 2016 series of RIO Country Reports analyse and assess the policy and the national research and innovation system developments in relation to national policy priorities and the EU policy agenda with special focus on ERA and Innovation Union. The executive summaries of these reports put forward the main challenges of the research and innovation systems. |
| Keywords: | research and innovation, Bulgaria, innovation system |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc105925&r=tra |
| By: | Vladimir Balaz (Slovak Academy of Sciences); Karol Frank (Slovak Academy of Sciences); Jana Zifciakova (European Commission - DG JRC) |
| Abstract: | The 2016 series of RIO Country Reports analyse and assess the policy and the national research and innovation system developments in relation to national policy priorities and the EU policy agenda with special focus on ERA and Innovation Union. The executive summaries of these reports put forward the main challenges of the research and innovation systems. |
| Keywords: | R&I system, R&I policy, ERA, innovation union, European Semester analysis, Slovakia |
| JEL: | I20 O30 Z18 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc105850&r=tra |
| By: | Krzysztof Klincewicz (University of Warsaw); Katarzyna Szkuta (European Commission - DG JRC); Magdalena Marczewska (University of Warsaw) |
| Abstract: | The 2016 series of RIO Country Reports analyse and assess the policy and the national research and innovation system developments in relation to national policy priorities and the EU policy agenda with special focus on ERA and Innovation Union. The executive summaries of these reports put forward the main challenges of the research and innovation systems. |
| Keywords: | R&I system, R&I policy, ERA, innovation union, European Semester analysis, Poland |
| JEL: | I20 O30 Z18 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc105843&r=tra |
| By: | Daniel Stefan Armeanu (Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Romania); Adrian Enciu (Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Romania); Sorin-Iulian Cioaca (Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Romania) |
| Abstract: | Globalization is a central topic in the financial literature, as its impact observed or estimated on local economies is sometimes invalidated by the macroeconomic variables. The positive effects induced by globalization are usually closely followed by several preconditions of future crisis, leading to an exposure of less developed economies to shocks induced by globalized markets. In this article, we use the daily returns of 12 capital markets - developed, emergent and frontier markets (mainly from the Central and Eastern Europe), between January 1st, 2007-March, 17th, 2017, in order to reveal the impact that turbulences on these markets have on the Romanian capital market. We use VAR models to capture the impact the developed capital markets have on the less developed Romanian capital market. The obtained results show the major influence that the developed capital markets, especially the US capital market, have on the volatility of the daily returns from the Romanian capital market. This result emphasizes the need for a reform of the Romanian capital market, in order to better fulfill its role as a financing venue for the Romanian companies. |
| Keywords: | capital market, contagion risk, volatility |
| JEL: | C13 C22 C58 D53 G01 G15 |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:wpaper:2&r=tra |
| By: | Marin Popescu (Athenaeum University from Bucharest); Silvia Mihaela Popescu (Valahia University from Targoviste); Maria Daniela Galca |
| Abstract: | The internal control management means all the forms of control exercised at the public entity, including internal audit, established by the management in accordance with its objectives and legal regulations in order to provide fund administration economically, efficiently and effectively; it also includes the organizational structures, methods, and procedures. The phrase, “internal control management†emphasizes the responsibility of all hierarchical levels for controlling all internal processes undertaken in order to achieve its general and specific objectives. The internal control management development strategy prioritizes managerial responsibility and ensures that the implemented internal control management systems are adequate and prevent or limit errors and fraud. |
| Keywords: | internal control management system, operational procedure, system procedure, risks registry, internal control standards, risk management |
| JEL: | M40 M42 M48 M49 |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:wpaper:14&r=tra |
| By: | Mihaela Simionescu (Institute for Economic Forecasting of the Romanian Academy) |
| Abstract: | This paper brings as novelty for the Romanian literature the construction of Bayesian forecast intervals for inflation and unemployment rate in the period 2004-2017. Only few intervals included the registered values on the variables, but in the last stage when all the prior information has been used, the forecast intervals are very short. On the other hand, a novelty for the international literature is brought in this research by proposing a Bayesian technique for assessing prediction intervals in a better way than in the traditional approach that uses statistic tests. |
| Keywords: | forecast interval, Bayesian interval, inflation, unemployment |
| JEL: | C11 C13 C53 E37 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sko:wpaper:bep-2017-06&r=tra |
| By: | Zhang Jingchao (School of Economics and Management, Kochi University of Technology); Koji Kotani (School of Economics and Management, Kochi University of Technology); Tatsuyoshi Saijo (School of Economics and Management, Kochi University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | Household low-quality coal consumption is a main contributor to air pollution in China. In response, governmental subsidies on high-quality coal and promotion of new-type coal stoves have been implemented. However, to date, little is known about the effectiveness of these policies and determinants of consumption behavior between low-quality and high-quality coals. To fulfill this paucity, we conducted face-to-face surveys with 602 households in rural Beijing and collected the information of coal consumption, socioeconomic, cognitive and psychological factors. With the data, we empirically characterize the determinants of coal consumption and its switching behavior between high-quality and low-quality coals by bivariate probit and Tobit regressions, yielding the following principal results: (1) prosocial people are more likely to consume high-quality coal, and critical thinking disposition positively affects the probability to choose high-quality coal; (2) local environmental concern plays an important role in consumption behavior, but global environmental concern does not; (3) government policies appear to be efficient in that subsidies on high-quality coal reduce the likelihood of choosing low-quality coal and the promotion of new-type coal stoves facilitates the transition from low-quality to high-quality coal. Overall, the results suggest that cognitive, psychological factors and promotion policies can be considered significant in coal consumption behavior. Public education on critical thinking, local environment and prosociality as well as new-type coal stoves should be further promoted to accelerate the transition from low-quality to high-quality coal. |
| Keywords: | coal, air pollution, China |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kch:wpaper:sdes-2017-6&r=tra |
| By: | Elena Pelinescu (Institute of Economic Forecasting); Marioara Iordan (Institute of Economic Forecasting); Nona Chilian (Institute of Economic Forecasting); Mihaela Simionescu (Institute of Economic Forecasting) |
| Abstract: | The paper approaches the issue of regional competitiveness in Romania, focusing on simple tools for analysis, namely the shift-share analysis (introduced by Dunn in 1960) and specific competitiveness indicators: RCA, RCA1 and RCA2. As documented in the literature, the level of such indicators and the changes that occur in their levels are key factors for an analysis of economic and social performance at regional and sub-regional levels (D’Elia, 2005; Chilian, 2012; Iordan et al., 2014; Pelinescu et.al.., 2015). The classical form of shift-share analysis chosen by the authors envisages to “divide†the dynamics of a certain growth factor in a certain region into three components: national, sectoral and regional. Given such issues, by using the sectoral shift-share analysis of exports completed by the indices-based competitiveness analysis in the paper will be identified the regions of Romania which reveal dynamics of their economic structures conducing to high levels of external competitiveness (and, thus, to a higher degree of integration into the European Single Market), and to sustainable specializations, adequate to the requirements of building a modern economy, with high flexibility and high technological level. |
| Keywords: | regional competitiveness, Romanian regions and counties, comparative advantage / disadvantage indices, shift-share analysis |
| JEL: | F14 R12 R15 |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:wpaper:13&r=tra |
| By: | Carmen Beatrice Pauna (Institute for Economic Forecasting-NIER, Romanian Academy); Mihaela Simionescu (Institute for Economic Forecasting-NIER, Romanian Academy); Tiberiu Diaconescu (Institute for Economic Forecasting-NIER, Romanian Academy); Raluca I. Iorgulescu (Institute for Economic Forecasting-NIER, Romanian Academy) |
| Abstract: | In a world shaken by unsustainability conundrums, a bio-based economy (bioeconomy) seems like the solution. This paper introduces two ways to define a sustainable bioeconomy, one advanced by Nicholas Georgescu Roegen in the 1970s and another implemented by the European Union in recent years. Also, an overview of Romania’s potential to develop a bio-based economy is drawn. Its renewable energy profile is presented, followed by a discussion of the bio-based industrial sectors with potential for development. |
| Keywords: | bio-based economy, bioeconomy, Romania |
| JEL: | Q42 Q56 Q57 |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:wpaper:12&r=tra |