nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2017‒05‒28
39 papers chosen by
J. David Brown
United States Census Bureau

  1. China's Lost Generation: Changes in Beliefs and their Intergenerational Transmission By Roland, Gérard; Yang, David
  2. Revisiting Finance and Growth in Transition Economies - A Panel Causality Approach By Michael A. Stemmer
  3. The Consumption Response to Minimum Wages: Evidence from Chinese Households By Dautovic, Ernest; Hau, Harald; Huang, Yi
  4. A small scale forecasting and simulation model for Azerbaijan (FORSAZ) By Salman Huseynov; Fuad Mammadov
  5. Methodological Approaches to the Construction of a Medium-Term Forecast of the Development of the Financial Sector of the Russian Federation in the Context of Foreign Policy Uncertainty By Andreev, Mikhail; Khromov, Michael; Shchelokova, Dina
  6. Analysis of Approaches to Determining the Level of Tax Burden By Shatalovà, Svetlana; Korytin, Andrey; Zakharenkova, Elena
  7. The Nexus of Monetary Policy and Shadow Banking in China By Kaiji Chen; Jue Ren; Tao Zha
  8. Late to the game? Capital flows to the Western Balkans By Zsoka Koczan
  9. Incomplete VAT rebates to exporters : how do they affect China's export performance? By Julien Gourdon; Stéphanie Monjon; Sandra Poncet
  10. Why Is Food Consumption Inequality Underestimated? A Story of Vices and Children By Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis; Yu Zheng
  11. Determinants of Inflation in Azerbaijan By Vugar Rahimov; Shaig Adigozalov; Fuad Mammadov
  12. Convergence of public and private enterprise wages in a transition economy: Evidence from a distributional decomposition in Vietnam, 2002–2014 By Vu, Tien Manh; Yamada, Hiroyuki
  13. Herding boosts too-connected-to-fail risk in stock market of China By Shan Lu; Jichang Zhao; Huiwen Wang; Ruoen Ren
  14. The Electricity Distribution Network Economic Modelling and Middle-Term Scenario Planning in Russian Federation By Suyunchev, Marat; Mozgovaya, Oxana; Temnaya, Olga
  15. Medical-Demographic Differentiation According to Educational Level By Shulgin, Sergey; Scherbov, Sergey; Zinkina, Yulia; Novikov, Kirill
  16. Determinants of Entering the Export Markets and Behavior of Russian Firms in International Trade By Kuznetsov, Dmitry; Knobel, Alexander
  17. Formation of a System of Prudential Supervision for Professional Participants of the Securities Market By Korishchenko, Konstantin; Morozov, Stepan
  18. Exchange Rate Regimes in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe; A Euro Bloc and a Dollar Bloc? By Slavi T Slavov
  19. Comparative Analysis of Various Types of Corporations in the Conditions of Corporate Law Reform By Glushetskiy, Andrei
  20. Migration impact on left-behind women’s labour participation and time-use: Evidence from Kyrgyzstan By Kamalbek Karymshakov; Burulcha Sulaimanova
  21. Strategic Planning of Financial Market Development in the Russian Federation By Danilov, Yury
  22. Development of Competitive Tools for Access to Basic, Competitive and Program Budget Funding for Research and Innovations in the Russian Federation By Kurakova, Natalia; Zinov, Vladimir; Tsvetkova, Liliya; Kupriyanova, Olga
  23. Problems of Legal Regulation of Market Forms of Economic Concentration in the Russian Federation and Abroad By Egorova, Maria; Uvakina, Tatiyana
  24. The Global Economy and the Insurance Market of the Russian Federation as an Object State Regulation By Korishchenko, Konstantin; Shokin, Viktor; Irmatova, Elnura; Mikhailova, Nadezhda
  25. Education as Protection? The Effect of Schooling on Non-Wage Compensation in a Developing Country By Dang, Thang
  26. Local Institutional Quality and Return Migration: Evidence from Vietnam By Ngoc Thi Minh Tran; Michael P. Cameron; Jacques Poot
  27. Evaluation of the Effects of Integration of Eurasian Economic Union By Sedalishchev, Vladimir; Chokaev, Bekhan; Knobel, Alexander
  28. The MNB’s house price index methodology By Ádám Banai; Nikolett Vágó; Sándor Winkler
  29. Permanent and Temporary Oil Price Shocks, Macroeconomic Policy, and Tradable Non-oil Sector: Case of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Russia By Ramiz Rahmanov
  30. Incentives and Motives of Workers Employed in the Areas of Formal and Non-Criminal 'Shadow' Economy By Pokida, Andrey; Zybunovskaya, Nataliya
  31. Development of Mechanisms for Embedding Small Forms of Management in Food Chains By Shagaida, Natalia; Gataulinà, Ekaterina; Uzun, Vasily; Yanbykh, Renata
  32. Trade policy and industrial policy in China: What motivates public authorities to apply restrictions on exports? By Julien Gourdon; Stéphanie Monjon; Sandra Poncet
  33. Illegal Re-Export and Analysis of the Effectiveness of the Russian Food Embargo in 2014 By Firanchuk, Alexander
  34. Why did socialist economies fail? The role of factor inputs reconsidered By Tamás Vonyó; Alexander Klein
  35. Microfinance beyond self-employment: Evidence for firms in Bulgaria By Erhardt, Eva
  36. Analysis of the Advancing Development of the Financial Sector in the Global Economy By Danilov, Yury
  37. Export management and incomplete VAT rebates to exporters: the case of China By Julien Gourdon; Laura Hering; Stéphanie Monjon; Sandra Poncet
  38. Evolution of the Electronic Payment Industry: Problems of a Qualitative Transition By Dostov, Viktor; Shoust, Paul
  39. Identifying Structural Reform Gaps in Emerging Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia By Norbert Funke; Asel Isakova; Maksym Ivanyna

  1. By: Roland, Gérard; Yang, David
    Abstract: Beliefs about whether effort pays off govern some of the most fundamental choices individual make. This paper uses China's Cultural Revolution to understand how these beliefs can be affected, how they impact behavior, and how they are transmitted across generations. During the Cultural Revolution, China's college admission system based on entrance exams was suspended for a decade until 1976, effectively depriving an entire generation of young people of the opportunity to access higher education (the "lost generation"). Using data from a nationally representative survey, we compare cohorts who graduated from high school just before and after the college entrance exam was resumed. We find that members of the "lost generation" who missed out on college because they were born just a year or two too early believe that effort pays off to a much lesser degree, even 40 years into their adulthood. However, they invested more in their children's education, and transmitted less of their changed beliefs to the next generation, suggesting attempts to safeguard their children from sharing their misfortunes.
    Keywords: Changes in Beliefs; China; Cultural change; Cultural Revolution; Cultural Transmission
    JEL: I23 O53 P26 P48 Z1
    Date: 2017–05
  2. By: Michael A. Stemmer (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne)
    Abstract: This article provides new evidence on the relationship between financial development and economic growth in 15 Eastern European countries between 1994 and 2014. The analysis employs a panel Granger causality framework that is based on seemingly unrelated regression systems and Wald tests with country-specific bootstrap critical values. By relying on several financial development indicators, we find that finance primarily follows GDP per capita in transition economies, supporting a demand-driven hypothesis. In contrast, financial development in the form of financial monetization and credit extension exerts in the majority of countries a negative impact on economic growth. Moreover, a strong foreign bank presence seems to positively impact growth, presumably driven by more efficiency and prudential lending behavior
    Keywords: Economic growth; financial development; transition countries; granger causality; bootstrap
    JEL: F43 O10 O11
    Date: 2017–05
  3. By: Dautovic, Ernest; Hau, Harald; Huang, Yi
    Abstract: This paper evaluates the Chinese minimum wage policy for the period 2002-2009 in terms of its impact on low income household consumption. Using a representative household panel, we find support for the permanent income hypothesis, whereby unanticipated and persistent income increases due to minimum wage policy change are fully spent. The impact is driven by households with at least one child. We infer significant positive welfare effects for low income households based on expenditure increases concentrated in health care and education, whereas a negative employment effect of higher minimum wage cannot be confirmed.
    Keywords: Household consumption; Labor income; minimum wage; Permanent income hypothesis
    JEL: C26 E24 J38
    Date: 2017–05
  4. By: Salman Huseynov (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic); Fuad Mammadov (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic)
    Abstract: In our study, we model both steady state and short-run dynamics of the important aspects of the national economy using quarterly data for the period 1999Q1-2016Q2. We explicitly model government, money market and external sector, but omit household sector, labor market, wage dynamics and volume of the physical capital specifications due to serious data quality issues. Using Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS) co-integration methodology we explore co-integration relations among the variables. Coefficient estimates of short-run dynamics are in compliance with our ex-ante expectations. Stability tests indicate that the system seems to exhibit stability around its steady state values and model variables converges to their steady state values approximately within 140 periods (2016Q3-2050Q4). Impulse-response analysis also show stable convergence of the model and predict economically consistent results. The results of in-sample and out-of-sample simulation exercises for the inflation, the government consumption and the imports are satisfactory. However, it seems that the model cannot adequately capture ex-post dynamics of NFA and reserve money. In general the results indicate that model can be used for the specific policy analysis and forecasting of main macroeconomic variables of Azerbaijan.
    Keywords: general equilibrium; co-integration analysis; forecast evaluation
    JEL: C32 C51 C52 E17
    Date: 2016–11–30
  5. By: Andreev, Mikhail (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Khromov, Michael (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Shchelokova, Dina (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The object of the study is the Russian financial market: the banking system, APFs, insurance companies, management companies, money market, debt market, foreign exchange market. The goal of the work is to develop a methodology for building a medium-term forecast of the financial market and in developing the forecast itself. As a result of the conducted research the following methodology of construction of the forecast is offered. The medium-term forecast for the development of Russia's financial sector is built in the form of a dynamic quarterly model. In this model, the Russian economy is described as the interaction of several types of economic agents: Population, Producers, Banks, Central Bank, Ministry of Finance (budget). Dynamics of variables of various agents within the forecast is subject to several types of relationships: Financial balances of individual agents (producers, banks, the Central Bank), The balance of financial flows of all agents, the institutional constraints of the production function for producers, the demand for loans from producers, the demand function for real household consumption, the demand for new household loans, the supply of household loans, the demand for settlement accounts in the Central Bank from commercial banks, Etc.), Equilibrium in certain markets (macroeconomic balance, balance of payments). Based on the results of the development of the methodology, scenarios for the development of the financial sector for 2016-2018 in the coming years were compiled and analyzed. The defining factors in 2016-2018 for the development of the financial sector will be 1) the growth in demand for credit resources from enterprises, which is partially met by the resources of non-residents, 2) the budget deficit and the means of its financing. Depending on the external forecast of key indicators of the real sector development, the forecast (model) is completing the indicators of the financial sector. The monetary and fiscal policy of the state is chosen in the forecast such that the external forecast of the real sector is realized.
    Date: 2017–05
  6. By: Shatalovà, Svetlana (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Korytin, Andrey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Zakharenkova, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The tax burden, being a key indicator of the tax system quality, is of great interest to be analyzed as a concept and a measure. The working paper summarizes conceptual understanding of the economic nature of tax burden, shows commonly used methods of its measurement, provides recommendations for achieving objective and comparable data on the burden of tax payments in the Russian Federation, presents results of the tax burden measurement.
    Date: 2017–04
  7. By: Kaiji Chen; Jue Ren; Tao Zha
    Abstract: We estimate the quantity-based monetary policy system in China. We argue that China's rising shadow banking was inextricably linked to banks' balance-sheet risk and hampered the effectiveness of monetary policy on the banking system during the 2009-2015 period of monetary policy contractions. By constructing two micro datasets at the individual bank level, we substantiate this argument with three empirical findings: (1) in response to monetary policy tightening, nonstate banks actively engaged in intermediating shadow banking products; (2) these banks, in sharp contrast to state banks, brought shadow banking products onto the balance sheet via risky investments; (3) bank loans and risky investment assets in the banking system respond in opposite directions to monetary policy tightening, which makes monetary policy less effective. We build a theoretical framework to derive the above testable hypotheses and explore implications of the interaction between monetary and regulatory policies.
    JEL: E02 E5 G11 G12 G28
    Date: 2017–05
  8. By: Zsoka Koczan
    Abstract: The boom and bust in capital flows to the New Member States of the European Union have received a considerable amount of attention; foreign direct investment and bank flows to the region and countries’ participation in regional supply chains have been well-documented. Relatively little has, however, been written about capital flows to the Western Balkans economies, which are often perceived to be ‘late arrivals’ to large capital flows. This paper aims to examine how capital flows to the Western Balkans compare with flows to the New Member States, in terms of levels as well as dynamics. We find that while financial integration took off somewhat later in the Western Balkans than in the New Member States, it has increased rapidly, despite still much lower capital account openness. Capital inflows as a share of GDP are comparable to those observed in the New Member States, (perhaps surprisingly) diverse in terms of source countries and broadly similar in composition, though with equity shares higher than they were in the New Member States at comparable levels of GDP per capita.
    Keywords: Macedonia, former Yugoslav Republic of;Bosnia and Herzegovina;Capital flows;Croatia;Europe;Albania;Foreign direct investment;Western Balkans, Open Economy Macroeconomics, Comparative Studies of Countries, Performance and Prospects
    Date: 2017–04–07
  9. By: Julien Gourdon (CEPII - Centre d'études prospectives et d'informations internationales - CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique); Stéphanie Monjon (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - Université Paris-Dauphine); Sandra Poncet (CEPII - Centre d'études prospectives et d'informations internationales - CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique)
    Abstract: During the last decade, the Chinese government has frequently changed the value added tax (VAT) refund levels offered to exporters. Indeed, China’s VAT system is not neutral, in particular because the exporters may not receive complete refund of the domestic VAT paid on their inputs. This paper investigates how changes in the VAT rebates affect export performance in China. Our empirical analysis relies on export volume data at the HS6 product level over the 2003-12 period. To address potential endogeneity, we exploit an eligibility rule that disqualifies processingtrade with supplied materials from the rebates. We find that the adjustments to the VAT rebates have significant repercussions on the exported volume: a one percentage point increase in the VAT rebate can lead to a 7% increase in export volumes. This magnitude allows to better understand the strong resistance of China’s exports amid the global recession.
    Keywords: China,VAT system,Export performance,Export tax
    Date: 2017–03–28
  10. By: Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis; Yu Zheng
    Abstract: Without data on individual consumption, inequality is invariably inferred by applying adult equivalence scales to household-level consumption data. To assess the e effectiveness of these household-based measures of inequality, we exploit a rare opportunity in which individual food consumption data for each and all household members are available in China. We find that standard adult-equivalent measures understate cross-sectional individual inequality by 40%. The discrepancy is driven by the dispersion of "vices" consumption among adults -alcohol, tobacco, coffee and tea- and food among young children, which doubles that of adults. Our results suggest caution in the use of adult-equivalent scales to measure inequality.
    Keywords: food, consumption, Inequality, individual data, vices, children
    JEL: D12 E21
    Date: 2017–05
  11. By: Vugar Rahimov (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic); Shaig Adigozalov (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic); Fuad Mammadov (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic)
    Abstract: This paper assesses the main determinants of inflation in Azerbaijan during 2003-2015 years. Using quarterly data on CPI, trade partner’s CPI, nominal effective exchange rate (NEER), money supply (M2), real non-oil gross domestic product (NGDP) and credits we employ vector auto regression (VAR) analysis in order to conduct our study. Impulse response and variance decomposition analysis suggest that inflation is mostly explained by foreign inflation, fiscal policy, exchange rate and own shocks. Whereas monetary policy and supply shocks do not play any essential role in explaining inflation. Among these variables inflation expectations, foreign inflation and monetary policy (credit variable) have quick effect on domestic headline inflation, whereas the effect of fiscal variable is relatively slower: it takes two quarters to fully reflect on prices. We also find that appreciation of exchange rate has deflationary effect on domestic inflation.
    Keywords: consumer price index, inflation, determinants of inflation, historical decomposition, developing country, structural vector autoregression
    JEL: E31 E50
    Date: 2016–10–12
  12. By: Vu, Tien Manh; Yamada, Hiroyuki
    Abstract: We examine the transition of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in Vietnam from a wage perspective by decomposing the difference in wage distributions between SOE employees and non-SOE employees during the period 2002–2014. In 2002, SOE employees enjoyed higher pay than non-SOE employees owing to characteristics difference and any factors other than either the price of skills or the characteristics difference, so-called residuals difference. University graduates were the main contributor to the endowments difference. However, we found that SOE pay schemes converged with those of non-SOEs by 2014, in terms of both the price of skills and residuals.
    Keywords: Wage, wage decomposition, wage distribution, state-owned enterprises, transition, Vietnam
    JEL: J30 J45 O15 P31
    Date: 2017–04–26
  13. By: Shan Lu; Jichang Zhao; Huiwen Wang; Ruoen Ren
    Abstract: The crowd panic and its contagion play non-negligible roles at the time of the stock crash, especially for China where inexperienced investors dominate the market. However, existing models rarely consider investors in networking stocks and accordingly miss the exact knowledge of how panic contagion leads to abrupt crash. In this paper, by networking stocks of sharing common mutual funds, a new methodology of investigating the the market crash from the perspective of investor behavior is presented. It is surprisingly revealed that the herding, which origins in the mimic of seeking for high diversity across investment strategies to lower individual risk, will produce too-connected-to-fail stocks and reluctantly boosts the systemic risk of the entire market. Though too-connected stocks might be relatively stable during the crisis, they are so influential that a small downward fluctuation will cascade to trigger severe drops of massive successor stocks, implying that their disturbances might be unexpectedly amplified by the collective panic and result in the market crash. Our findings suggest that the whole picture of portfolio strategy has to be carefully supervised to reshape the stock network and highly connected stocks should be warned at early stages to avoid the market panic.
    Date: 2017–05
  14. By: Suyunchev, Marat (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Mozgovaya, Oxana (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Temnaya, Olga (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The research «The Electricity Distribution Network Economic Modelling and Middle-term Scenario Planning in Russian Federation» emphasizes the main problems and the factors affecting to a quality of the electricity distribution network development planning. The electricity distribution network economic model was created. The Central federal district middle-term development scenarios were done on the basis of this economical model.
    Date: 2017–04
  15. By: Shulgin, Sergey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Scherbov, Sergey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Zinkina, Yulia (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Novikov, Kirill (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: In this paper, the relationship between the health status of people and the level of education is investigated. The main objective of the study is to analyze how the state of health depends on the level of education. The work evaluates the age functions of various medical and demographic factors, as well as their dependence on the level of education. Estimates of several models of the expected life expectancy (HALE) for Russia are made and an assessment of the survival tables for Russian men and women with different levels of education is done.
    Date: 2017–04
  16. By: Kuznetsov, Dmitry (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Knobel, Alexander (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The paper examines the theoretical and empirical approaches to the modeling of firm’s behavior in international trade. Using these approaches to analyze the detailed statistics of Russian firms, in the presented study the characteristic of the behavior of Russian firms in international trade is given. We also study the cross-sectional structure of Russian exports to the position of individual enterprises. In general, results of the work should be considered as a better understanding of the behavior of Russian firms in international trade that interesting from both is both academic and practical point of views.
    Keywords: Export, transaction-level data, fixed cost of trade, probability model, export premium, extensive margin, intensive margin, Ýêñïîðò, ìèêðîäàííûå, ôèêñèðîâàííûå èçäåðæêè òîðãîâëè, âåðîÿòíîñòíàÿ ìîäåëü, ýêñïîðòíàÿ ïðåìèÿ, ýêñòåíñèâíàÿ ìàðæà, èíòåíñèâíàÿ ìàðæà
    Date: 2017–05
  17. By: Korishchenko, Konstantin (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Morozov, Stepan (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The purpose of this work is the development of a system of prudential supervision measures for the activities of professional participants in the securities market for the purpose of minimizing systemic risks and ensuring the stability of the financial system, enhancing the protection of investors and depositors and creating fair and transparent financial markets. In the course of the research, a study was conducted on the application of prudential supervision measures in relation to Russian banks as the main participants of the domestic financial market, the harmonization of existing prudential banking supervision measures with respect to professional participants, and a study of the world experience in carrying out these measures using the example of the regulatory bodies of Great Britain, Australia and the USA.
    Date: 2017–05
  18. By: Slavi T Slavov
    Abstract: There are 13 countries in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) with floating exchange rate regimes, de jure. This paper uses the framework pioneered by Frankel and Wei (1994) and extended in Frankel and Wei (2008) to show that most of them have been tracking either the euro or the US dollar in recent years. Eight countries, all of them current or aspiring EU members, track the euro. Of the five countries keying on the US dollar in various degrees, all but one belong to the Commonwealth of Independent States. The paper shows that the extent to which each country’s currency tracks the euro (or the dollar) is correlated with the structure of its external trade and finance. However, some countries appear to track the EUR or USD to an extent which appears inconsistent with inflation targeting, trade or financial integration, or the extent of business cycle synchronization. The phenomenon is particularly pronounced among the countries in the CESEE euro bloc, which may be deliberately gravitating around the euro in anticipation of eventually joining the Euro Area.
    Keywords: Foreign exchange;United States;Western Hemisphere;Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe; exchange rate regimes; fixed versus floating; de jure versus de facto, Eastern and Southeastern Europe, exchange rate regimes, fixed versus floating, de jure versus de facto, International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    Date: 2017–03–31
  19. By: Glushetskiy, Andrei (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The paper introduces a classification of commercial corporations for open and closed; The latter include a limited liability company and all corporate corporations: production cooperatives, people's enterprises. A comparative analysis of the specifics of limiting the turnover of participation rights in various types of closed corporations is given. The paper demonstrates the negative economic consequences for the corporation — the obligation to buy out its own shares, stakes in the authorized capital of LLC, a share in the production cooperative. A comparative analysis of the determination of the actual value of a stake in the authorized capital of LLC, the conditional redemption price of a share of a production cooperative, and the "shares" of a national enterprise. Specific intracorporate contradictions of closed corporations are revealed. The negative economic consequences of the participant's right of free exit from the corporation — first of all, from LLC are shown.
    Date: 2017–05
  20. By: Kamalbek Karymshakov; Burulcha Sulaimanova
    Abstract: This paper aims to study the impact of migration on labour supply and time-use of women left behind in Kyrgyzstan. Using the household survey data for 2011, labour supply is measured by occupational choices and working hours. Apart from the labour supply data, this study uses detailed information on daily time-use, which is analysed within women’s occupations. This approach makes it possible to indicate the impact of migration not only through the labour supply analysis, which may be limited by reflecting labour market behaviour only, but also through the measure of allocation of time among different activities at home. To address the issue of endogeneity, the instrumental variable approach is applied. Results show that the migration of a household member increases the choice of left-behind women to be unpaid family workers. Most of the left-behind women choose unpaid family work and work more hours in this occupation. Although in the labour supply analysis wage-employment is not affected by migration, time-use model estimations reveal that wage-employed women are mostly affected through increases in the time for housework.
    Date: 2017
  21. By: Danilov, Yury (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The paper discusses the strategic planning of the Russian financial market. On the basis of a retrospective study of the financial market development, an analysis of the adequacy of strategic documents adopted in 2001-2016 to the real problems of the Russian financial market was conducted. Based on the proposed criteria, an assessment of the quality of strategic documents was carried out, and proposals to increase the quality were formulated. The main problems of the Russian financial market were identified, its place in social and economic development and on the global financial market was specified. Based on this the proposals on target indicators and key areas State policy in the financial market, which should form the basis of strategic planning documents are formulated.
    Date: 2017–05
  22. By: Kurakova, Natalia (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Zinov, Vladimir (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Tsvetkova, Liliya (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Kupriyanova, Olga (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: In the period 2014 to 2016 allocations for civil science decreased from 437.3 billion rubles to 285.8 billion rubles. In the context of the level of import dependence and the depreciation of the national currency, there has been more than a twofold reduction in the actual volume of science financing over the past three years. At the same time, the implementation of Presidential Decree No. 577 of May 7, 2012, implies bringing up to 200% of the average wage in the region of the salaries of research workers in 2018. However, as early as 2014, labor compensation in the academic organizations of the The Federal Agency for Scientific Organizations amounted to 75% of the volume of Current expenses. The paper analyzes the key problems of the distribution of the state budget in the sector of scientific knowledge and possible ways to increase their effectiveness. The review of the measures To optimize budget planning in the field of science proposed in 2014-2016 is carried out.
    Date: 2017–05
  23. By: Egorova, Maria (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Uvakina, Tatiyana (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: This work is devoted to the study of the legal regulation of transactions in economic concentration and the formation of basic approaches to reforming the legal regime for the antimonopoly regulation of the transactions.
    Date: 2017–05
  24. By: Korishchenko, Konstantin (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Shokin, Viktor (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Irmatova, Elnura (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Mikhailova, Nadezhda (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: State regulation of insurance in one form or another is realized in all countries of the world. Existing models are universal in terms of key parameters and at the same time differ in the details inherent in national regulatory systems. By now, economically developed countries have accumulated rich experience in state regulation of insurance market. In order to effectively develop the insurance market of the Russian Federation, it is efficient to consider the foreign experience of state regulation and to analyze the instruments used for the protection and development of the insurance market. For the purposes of this study, it is advisable to consider only some the principles of regulation, namely approaches to key aspects of state regulation related to admission to the market of foreign participants of the insurance market in relation to a single state, and the control for participants' operational, financial and Investment activity by the state insurance regulator.
    Date: 2017–05
  25. By: Dang, Thang
    Abstract: This is the first paper identifying the causal effect of schooling on non-wage compensation using data from Vietnam. The paper takes an advantage of the establishment of the compulsory primary schooling reform that was introduced in Vietnam in 1991 to instrument for exogenous variations in years of schooling to surmount the endogeneity problem as a primary threat to idenfication facing the causal effect estimation. The paper finds that education is positively associated with non-wage benefits. In particular, the baseline 2SLS estimates indicates that one additional year of schooling is causally linked to a 6 percentage point increase in the likelihood of receiving monetary payments for public holidays, a 4.6 percentage point increase in the likelihood of receiving monetary employee benefits, a 7.3 percentage point increase in the likelihood of having annual paid leave and a 6.8 percentage point increase in the likelihood of having firm-provided social insurance. The baseline estimates are strongly robust to the estimates from some robustness checks. The paper also inspects that the causal associations between schooling and formal employment, skilled occupation and employee-friendly firm are three potential mechanisms through which schooling causally affects non-wage compensation.
    Keywords: Returns to schooling; Non-wage compensation; Developing countries
    JEL: I26 J24 J32 J33
    Date: 2017–05–19
  26. By: Ngoc Thi Minh Tran (University of Waikato); Michael P. Cameron (University of Waikato); Jacques Poot (University of Waikato)
    Abstract: This paper examines the link between local institutional quality in the home country and locational choices of international return migrants. We scrutinize the locational choices of Vietnamese return migrants to the south central and the south regions in 2014. Binary and multinomial regression models are fitted to identify the influence of migrants’ individual attributes and the characteristics of regional destinations within Vietnam, with the main focus placed on regional institutional quality. Our analysis reveals that both individual-specific and region-specific variables are significantly related to Vietnamese return migrants’ choices when registering for permanent residency back in their home country. Older migrants are more likely to return to regions other than the central city, as are male migrants. More remarkably, we provide compelling evidence of the positive role of institutional quality at the local level in these migration decisions. Moreover, the effect of institutional quality differs by the characteristics of migrants: regions with better institutional quality are more attractive to younger return migrants, and to those who returned from host countries with better institutional quality. Our findings are strongly robust across different econometric specifications and alternative measures of host country institutional quality at the national level.
    Keywords: return migration; institutional quality; locational choice; Vietnam
    JEL: F22 O15 R23
    Date: 2017–05–15
  27. By: Sedalishchev, Vladimir (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Chokaev, Bekhan (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Knobel, Alexander (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The work is devoted to assessment of the economic consequences of the integration policy on removing non-tariff barriers declared in the agreement on the EAEU using the methodology of numerical quantification using the computable general equilibrium (CGE). The general equilibrium model and the complex database for its estimation are constructed. A quantitative assessment of the impact of various scenarios of the EAEU integration on the economies of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Armenia is given.
    Keywords: ÅÀÝÑ, íåòàðèôíûå áàðüåðû, ýôôåêòû èíòåãðàöèè, ìîäåëü îáùåãî ðàâíîâåñèÿ
    Date: 2017–05
  28. By: Ádám Banai (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary)); Nikolett Vágó (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary)); Sándor Winkler (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary))
    Abstract: This study presents the detailed method of the MNB’s house price index and the results of the new price indices. The index family is considered to be a novelty among Hungarian housing market statistics in several regards. Firstly, the national index was derived from a database starting in 1990, and thus the national index is regarded as the longest in comparison to the house price indices available so far. The long time series allows us to observe and compare the real levels of house prices across several cycles. Another important innovation of this index family is its ability to capture house price developments by region and settlement type, which sheds light on the strong regional heterogeneity underlying Hungarian housing market developments.
    Keywords: hhousing market, house price index, hedonic regression
    JEL: C43 R21 R31
    Date: 2017
  29. By: Ramiz Rahmanov (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic)
    Abstract: This paper examines the economic effects of permanent and temporary oil price shocks in three oil exporting countries (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Russia) using the five variable (real short-term interest rate, real effective exchange rate, real budget expenditure, real imports, and real tradable non-oil production) VARX model with two exogenous variables which represent the corresponding shocks. The impulse response analysis conducted over the quarterly data from 2003:I to 2015:IV shows that in Azerbaijan, a permanent oil price shock produces a significantly positive effect on all variables but interest rate, while a temporary oil price shock has a significant and positive effect only on imports and exchange rate. For Kazakhstan, the impulse response functions show that a permanent oil price shock significantly and positively affects interest rate, imports, and budget expenditure; a temporary oil price shock has a significantly positive influence on all variables except budget expenditure. In Russia, a permanent oil price shock produces a significantly positive effect on all variables; a temporary oil price shock exerts a significantly positive effect on all variables but interest rate. Contrary to the permanent income hypothesis, the budget expenditure in Russia responds both to the permanent and temporary oil price shocks. Such divergence from the hypothesis can be explained by the specifics of the policy on the oil revenue spending. As regards the presence of the symptoms of the Dutch disease, the results indicate only on one symptom. Thus oil price shocks ultimately lead to appreciation of national currencies but not to a decline in tradable non-oil production.
    Keywords: permanent oil price shock, temporary oil price shock, macroeconomic policy, non-oil economy, Permanent income hypothesis, Dutch disease, VARX, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russia
    JEL: C54 E32 E37 E63 Q32
    Date: 2016–12–10
  30. By: Pokida, Andrey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Zybunovskaya, Nataliya (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: In a scientific report presents results of a study carried out by the enter of social and political monitoring of the School of Public Policy of RANEPA in 2016. The research is devoted to the study of the characteristics of functioning non-criminal "shadow" economy, in particular the incentives and motivations of economic behavior of workers employed in the areas of formal and non-criminal "shadow" economy. The results are compared with the results of opinion polls conducted by the Centre in the previous years on a comparable method. The main conclusions drawn from the results of sociological research, formed the basis for recommendations to improve the mechanism to increase labor and economic activity in the formal economy in Russia, limiting the economic activity in the "shadow" economy.
    Date: 2017–04
  31. By: Shagaida, Natalia (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Gataulinà, Ekaterina (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Uzun, Vasily (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Yanbykh, Renata (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The paper assesses the role of small business in Russian agriculture and develops mechanisms for the interaction of small forms of management with integrator companies and agricultural cooperatives. Embedding of small business in vertical chains is revealed on the basis of studying of theoretical bases and practical experience in foreign countries, basically, the US and the Western Europe. The level and limitations of the development of agricultural consumer cooperation in Russia are determined, taking into account the profile and regional specifics. The practice and institutional limitations of the development of contract farming in our country were analyzed.
    Date: 2017–04
  32. By: Julien Gourdon (CEPII - Centre d'études prospectives et d'informations internationales - CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique); Stéphanie Monjon (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - Université Paris-Dauphine); Sandra Poncet (CEPII - Centre d'études prospectives et d'informations internationales - CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique)
    Abstract: This work investigates the motivations behind the Chinese fiscal policy on exports. It relies on very detailed product level (HS 6 digit) data over the period 2002-12 covering both export tax and export VAT rebate. It aims to uncover the respective importance of the various policy motivations and how they evolved over time. Our empirical analysis relates the tax rates to proxies of official objectives pursued by the Chinese public authorities such as those related to the promotion of technology or protection of the environment but also other unstated motives pertaining to subsidization of downstream sectors and terms of trade. Our results suggest that the Chinese fiscal policy targeting exports followsa variety of objectives whose relative importance changed over the period 2002-2012.
    Keywords: industrial policy,export tax,Trade policy,VAT system,China
    Date: 2017–04–13
  33. By: Firanchuk, Alexander (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The tasks of this work are: to formulate theoretical hypotheses about the factors influencing the probability of re-export occurrence; the provision of descriptive statistics that may serve as evidence for the existence of such re-exports; and the construction of an econometric model for evaluating the proposed theoretical hypotheses. In addition, we will pay attention to the statistics of trade in Russia, the main changes and the most probable cases of re-export of goods. In the framework of this work, an analysis was made of the effectiveness of the Russian food embargo, introduced in August 2014. Under the effectiveness of sanctions, we understand the extent to which they have limited the supply of goods to Russia that have fallen under the embargo. In the course of the study, a statistical analysis of the COMTRADE trade data was carried out, which resulted in the identification of a number of indirect signs of the re-export to Russia of goods banned by the food embargo. Suspicions for the re-export of sanctioned products in the period 2014-2015 most often fall on the partner countries of Russia in the Eurasian Economic Union - Belarus and Kazakhstan. Also, suspicions of the presence of re-exports can be found in the statistics of trade of Serbia, Macedonia and Turkey.
    Date: 2017–04
  34. By: Tamás Vonyó; Alexander Klein
    Abstract: We present new investment data and revised growth accounts for three socialist economies between 1950 and 1989. Government statistics reported distorted measures for both the rate and trajectory of productivity growth in Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Poland. Researchers have benefited from revised output data, but continued to use official statistics on capital input, or estimated capital stock from official investment data. Investment levels and rates of capital accumulations were, in fact, much lower than officially claimed and over-reporting worsened over time. Sluggish factor accumulation, declining equipment investment and labor input, contributed much more to the socialist growth failure of the 1980s than previously thought.
    Keywords: growth accounting; capital accumulation; Socialism; Eastern Europe
    JEL: N14 N64 O47 P27
    Date: 2017–04
  35. By: Erhardt, Eva
    Abstract: This paper provides new evidence on the impact of microfinance on job creation beyond self-employment. We examine wage-employment effects for a typical program in Eastern Europe with average loan sizes that are considerably above what has been studied so far. We apply propensity score matching extended by a difference-in-differences estimator to panel data from an individual-lending program to firms in Bulgaria. Our results indicate that microcredit has very positive effects on job creation. Participating firms have on average 2.5 (or 33 percent) more employees two years after receiving a microcredit than matched non-participants. This strong effect seems to be related to a certain loan size threshold necessary for positive impacts to unfold. Effects are largest for the smallest firms, supporting findings from other studies that small firms are more constrained by credit than large firms. Investigating dynamic effects for up to six years after treatment, we furthermore show that effects are long lasting.
    Keywords: microfinance, wage employment, small firms, impact evaluation, Bulgaria
    JEL: C21 D22 G21 J23 P34
    Date: 2017–03
  36. By: Danilov, Yury (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: In the paper, the issue of advancing development of the financial sector is being investigated. Based on the calculations performed, the paper demonstrates that this process has been suspended on a global scale after the 2008 crisis, but it shows the different behavior of the financial sector segments in different countries with developed and developing financial markets. It is shown that the limits of the outstripping growth of the financial sector are likely to have been the causes of the 2008 crisis. Working hypotheses have been formulated regarding the relationship of this process with other trends in the development of the world economy. The main threats to the Russian economy in connection with the advancing development of the financial sector are formulated.
    Date: 2017–05
  37. By: Julien Gourdon (CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique); Laura Hering (Erasmus University Rotterdam - Department of Regional, Port and Transport Economics); Stéphanie Monjon (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - Université Paris-Dauphine); Sandra Poncet (FERDI - Fondation pour les Études et Recherches sur le Développement International - Fondation pour les Études et Recherches sur le Développement International)
    Abstract: Compared to most countries, China’s value-added tax (VAT) system is not neutral and makes it less advantageous to export a product than to sell it domestically, as exporters may not receive a complete refund on the domestic VAT they have paid on their inputs. However, the large and frequent changes to the VAT refunds which are offered to exporters have been led China to be accused of providing its firms with an unfair advantage in global trade. We use city-specific export-quantity data at the HS6-productlevel over the 2003-12 period to assess how changes in these VAT rebates have affected Chinese export performance. Our identification strategy relies on triple difference estimates that exploit an eligibility rule which disqualifies processing trade with supplied materials from these rebates. We find that changes in VAT rebates have significant export repercussions: eligible export quantity for a given city-HS6 pair rises by 6.5% following a one percentage-point increase in the VAT rebate. This magnitude yields abetter understanding of the strong resistance of Chinese exports during the global recession, in which export rebates increased substantially.
    Keywords: export tax,China,export performance,VAT System
    Date: 2017–03–27
  38. By: Dostov, Viktor (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Shoust, Paul (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The purpose of this work was to conduct a preliminary analysis of the payment services market in the form in which it exists now. To achieve this goal, two groups of tasks were put in effect. First, the regulation of "traditional" business models is considered: their essence and regulation in Russia. Also the authors analyzed the reasons that led to the configuration of the market that developed in Russia by the middle of the 2010s. Secondly, attention was paid to some new technologies and business models, which now, to some extent, go beyond the regulatory perimeter: the services of information intermediation, crowdfunding, P2P lending.
    Date: 2017–05
  39. By: Norbert Funke; Asel Isakova; Maksym Ivanyna
    Abstract: Using data from the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report as an example, this paper compares structural indicators for 25 countries in Emerging Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia with a generic country with similar charactersitics that is 40 percent richer as well as a country with the average EU income. This comparison suggests that improvements will be particularly crucial in the areas of institutions, financial market development, infrastructure, goods and labor market efficiency and areas related to innovation. For the generally more ambitious goal of reaching average EU income, the reform needs are correspondingly larger. The methodology focuses on (approximate) comparisons between countries and does not try to establish the link between structural reforms and growth. While we test for changes in empirical specifications, caveats relate to the quality of structural indicators, possible non-linearities, and reform complementarities. The approach can be applied to other indicators and at a more granular level.
    Date: 2017–03–30

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