nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2017‒04‒02
twenty papers chosen by
J. David Brown
United States Census Bureau

  1. What was Behind the Chinese Miracle? By Luo, Yinghao
  2. The Great Chinese Inequality Turnaround By Kanbur, Ravi; Wang, Yue; Zhang, Xiaobo
  3. Measuring the Effects of Oil Price and Euro-area Shocks on CEECs Business Cycles By Antonella Cavallo; Antonio Ribba
  4. Agglomeration economies in Vietnam : a firm-level analysis By Gokan, Toshitaka; Kuroiwa, Ikuo; Nakajima, Kentaro
  5. Does the More Educated Utilize More Health Care Services? Evidence from Vietnam Using a Regression Discontinuity Design By Dang, Thang
  6. : Innovation of renewable energy generation technologies at a regional level in China:A study based on patent data analysis By Nan Yu
  7. Firm Growth Dynamics and Financial Constraints: Evidence from Serbian Firms By Milos Markovic; Michael Stemmer
  8. Two Models of Primary Health Care Development: Russia vs. Central and Eastern European Countries By Igor Sheiman; Vladimir Shevski
  9. Republic of Kosovo; Second and Third Reviews under the Stand-By Arrangement, and Request for Program Extension-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Kosovo By International Monetary Fund
  10. Russian Industrial Statistics By Suhara, Manabu
  11. Precariousness in Russia: Attitudes, Work and Life Experience of Young Adults with Higher Education By Elena N. Gasiukova; Sergey A. Korotaev
  12. Location or Hukou: What Most Limits Fertility of Urban Women in China? By Yun Liang; John Gibson
  13. Regional Growth Differences in China for 1995-2013: An Empirical Integrative Analysis of their Sources By Hongbo Wang; Dan Rickman
  14. An Assessment of Sustainability of Bulgarian Farms By Bachev, Hrabrin
  15. Использование взаимосвязи между ВВП и денежной массой для экономического прогнозирования By BLINOV, Sergey
  16. Sanctions and public opinion : the case of the Russia-Ukraine gas disputes By Seitz, William; Presbitero, Andrea; Zazzaro, Alberto
  17. Better management practices and their outcomes in shrimp farming : evidence from small-scale shrimp farmers in Southern Vietnam By Suzuki, Aya; Vu, Hoang Nam
  18. Долгосрочное банковское кредитование: какие банки им занимаются и почему? By Vernikov, Andrei; Mamonov, Mikhail
  19. Growth Policy, Agglomeration and (the Lack of) Competition By Wyatt J. Brooks; Joseph Kaboski; Yao Amber Li
  20. The RMB Central Parity Formation Mechanism after August 2015: A Statistical Analysis By Yin-Wong Cheung; Cho-Hoi Hui; Andrew Tsang

  1. By: Luo, Yinghao
    Abstract: According to the International Monetary Fund, for the first time in decades, the U.S. is no longer the largest economy in the world, and China has become number one. Some economists think this is the chinese miracle. However, the chinese miracle raises some questions. The most important question is what was behind the chinese extraordinary performance? In this paper we provides social, political and economic insights into this issue. We find that the Han Chinese society in mainland China is a society full of animal spirit.
    Keywords: the chinese miracle, animal spirit
    JEL: K0 K4 N1 O1 O4 O5 P2 P3 Z1
    Date: 2016–12–07
  2. By: Kanbur, Ravi; Wang, Yue; Zhang, Xiaobo
    Abstract: This paper argues that after a quarter century of sharp and sustained increase, Chinese inequality is now plateauing and even turning down. The argument is made using a range of data sources and a range of measures and perspectives on inequality. The evolution of inequality is further examined through decomposition by income source and population subgroups. Preliminary explanations are provided for these trends in terms of shifts in policy and structural transformation of the Chinese economy. The narrative on Chinese inequality now needs to focus on the reasons for this great turnaround.
    Keywords: Chinese Inequality Turnaround; Harmonious Development and Government Policy; Inequality and Structural Transformation; Inequality Data; Inequality Trends
    JEL: D31 D63 O15 O53
    Date: 2017–03
  3. By: Antonella Cavallo; Antonio Ribba
    Abstract: This paper aims to assess the effects of external macroeconomic shocks on business cycles of Central and Eastern European Countries, not yet Euro-area members. Using quarterly data from 1999 to 2015 and the structural near-VAR methodology, we focus on the effects of Euro-area monetary policy and global oil price shocks on prices and output of the analyzed countries. Results show that business cycle fluctuations are mainly explained by domestic shocks in the short run, while monetary policy and oil price shocks play an increasing role in the medium run. Adding domestic fiscal shocks the overall picture does not change significantly, since fiscal policy turns out to be a minor driver of business cycle fluctuations in CEECs.
    Keywords: CEECs; Business Cycle Fluctuations; Euro Area; Common Shocks; near-Structural VAR
    JEL: C32 E32 Q43
    Date: 2017–03
  4. By: Gokan, Toshitaka; Kuroiwa, Ikuo; Nakajima, Kentaro
    Abstract: This paper examines the effects of agglomeration economies on firm†level productivity in Vietnam. By using Vietnamese firm†level data and the cluster detection method proposed by Mori and Smith (2013), we estimate the agglomeration economies for firm†level productivity. Specifically, we consider the different effects of agglomeration economies for localization and urbanization, as well as across types of firms; state†owned, private, and foreign†owned firms. Furthermore, we decompose the agglomeration economies into the three sources of the effect; inter†industry transaction relationships, knowledge spillovers, and labor pooling. We find the following results. First, localization economies actually improve firm†level productivity in Vietnam, with firms in the clustered areas having higher productivities. However, the localization economies do not improve the productivity of the state†owned firms. Second, urbanization economies improve productivity only for foreign†owned firms. State†owned and private firms do not benefit from urbanization economies. From the decomposition of agglomeration economies, we find that agglomeration economies formed through transactions work only for private firms. On the other hand, agglomeration economies formed through knowledge spillovers and labor pooling work for foreign†owned firms.
    Keywords: Local economy, Economic conditions, Economic geography, Productivity, Agglomeration Economies, Economic Geography
    JEL: R12
    Date: 2017–03
  5. By: Dang, Thang
    Abstract: In 1991 Vietnam implemented a compulsory schooling reform that provides this paper a natural experiment to estimate the causal effect of education on health care utilization measured by the probability of doctor visit, the frequency of doctor visit and per visit out-of-pocket expenditure with a regression discontinuity design. The paper finds that schooling induces considerable impacts on health care utilization although the signs of the impacts changes with specific types of health care service examined. In particular, increased education aggrandizes inpatient utilization whereas it reduces outpatient health care utilization for both public and private health sectors. The estimates are strongly robust to various windows of the sample choice. The paper also discovers that the links between education and health insurance or income play very essential roles as potential mechanisms to explain the causal impacts of education on health care utilization in Vietnam.
    Keywords: Education; health care utilization; regression discontinuity design; Vietnam
    JEL: I12 I21 J13
    Date: 2017–03–18
  6. By: Nan Yu (Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW))
    Abstract: This paper is a pioneer study which examines the innovation of renewable energy generation technologies based on residential patent applications in 30 regions of China between 2006 and 2015. Wind power, solar energy, geothermal energy, ocean energy, hydro power, and biomass & waste energy are the subject technologies for this analysis. Different indicators such as absolute numbers, growth rates and revealed technology advantages are used to measure the various green innovation dynamics in different regions. The results show that some regions with a higher number of patent applications or growth rates did not show stronger technological advantage (specialization) in such technologies. On the other hand, the region of Inner Mongolia shows a very strong specialization but with a much smaller number of patent applications.
    Keywords: renewable energy generation technologies, patent applications, innovation indicators, revealed technology advantage, Chinese regions
    JEL: O3 O31 O34 Q2 Q4 R11
    Date: 2016–12
  7. By: Milos Markovic (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Michael Stemmer (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Using a unique dataset of unlisted Serbian firms during the period between 2005 and 2012, we analyze the impact of internal financial constraints on firm growth with respect to several firm-level characteristics. We also assess potential effects created by the 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis. To do so, we rely on panel data models, which estimate via GMM cash flow sensitivities of firm growth, following the dynamic specification of Guariglia et al. (2011). Controlling for investment opportunities, our results show that Serbian firms face high financial constraints and exhibit generally a high reliance on retained earnings for firm growth. We do not find evidence for a crisis effect, potentially due to ex ante accumulated internal funds. Conventional firm characteristics such as age, size or overall performance largely determine the dependency on cash for firm growth. Moreover, foreign-owned companies seem to escape the financing gap by tapping other resources. A comparison with Belgian firms contrasts our results with an advanced country setting.
    Keywords: Financial constraints,firm growth,transition countries,dynamic panel data,GMM
    Date: 2017–02
  8. By: Igor Sheiman (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Vladimir Shevski (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The paper explores primary health care models in Russia and in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. Starting with the similar model, they have taken totally different ways of primary health care transformation, including the role of general practitioner, multi-specialty polyclinics and private sector. The comparison of this diversity, based on the conceptual framework of Primary Health Care Activity Monitor in Europe, demonstrated that the scores of primary care in Russia are relatively lower, particularly in the dimensions of accessibility, comprehensiveness, continuity and coordination of care. The score of the selected efficiency indicators is also relatively low. The major reasons for this are discussed, including the lack of strategic vision on the role of primary care, an excessive specialization of primary care and the delay with a shift to a general practitioner model. A debatable issue of primary care extended composition (the involvement of a growing number of specialists) is also addressed. The conceptual presumption that an extended composition presents new opportunities for more integrated care and better performance has not been supported by the evidence. Big multi-specialty policlinics in Russia don’t demonstrate advantages over solo and group GP practices that dominate in CEE countries. The potential of polyclinics is not used because of the lack of specific activities for integration. It is argued that new specialists in the practices can strengthen primary care only when they support generalists rather than replace them. The lesson learnt from CEE countries is that substantial changes are needed to overcome the lagging status of primary care in Russia, including overcoming the excessive specialization of primary care, the replacement of district physicians by general practitioners, developing the forms of independent practices operating in parallel with polyclinics and competing with them
    Keywords: Health policy Primary health care General practitioner Polyclinics Coordination of Care
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2017
  9. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Economic performance remains positive, with growth estimated at 3½ percent in 2016 and projected at similar levels this year. Fiscal deficits remain contained, with strong tax revenues limiting the impact from rising war veteran pensions. The banking system is healthy and credit growth robust. Political tensions related to opposition protests earlier in the year have subsided, but some disagreements have emerged inside the governing coalition.
    Date: 2017–03–17
  10. By: Suhara, Manabu
    Abstract: Historical Russian statistics on industry are discussed in this paper. Russia attained impressive economic development in the century from the emancipation of Russian serfs to around 1960, although growth was interrupted by the October Revolution, the Civil War, and World War II. The mainspring of Russia’s advancement was industrial growth. The mainly agrarian economy, in which the rural population accounted for about 80% of the total at the end of the 19th century, underwent a complete change in economic structure. This Russian success, however, came to an end at the end of the 1950s and beginning of the 1960s. The mining and manufacturing industries, which until then had led the economy, lost vigor, and the industrial economy as a whole withered. This deterioration led to the collapse of the Soviet Union by the end of the 20th century and the start of systemic transformation to capitalism. In this paper we look back at the history of Russia from the viewpoint of industrial statistics. In the first section, we adopt a general view of industrial statistics in Russia under the Tsarist regime. Some estimates of production indices for the industry of the Russian Empire are presented and compared. Then in the second section, production, labor, and capital statistics for Russian industry in the Soviet era are discussed, followed by the third section, in which changes in industrial statistics for Russia’s new era are summarized.
    Date: 2017–03
  11. By: Elena N. Gasiukova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Sergey A. Korotaev (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The purpose of this article is to show how Russian workers with higher professional education who are in precarious employment and live in larger cities perceive the lack of stability in their employment, life, and their prospects, and what influences their decision-making with respect to career. Our analysis is based on evidence from 10 semi-structured in-depth interviews. The method of consensual qualitative research (CQR) is employed. The analysis reveals that standard employment does not seem to offer significant benefits to respondents, because it does not guarantee an adequate level of labor market, income and social security, while it imposes unnecessary obligations with respect to organisation and concomitant constraints. On the contrary, flexible employment allows them to choose the jobs and working conditions that correspond to their lifestyles. The respondents demonstrate high levels of responsibility for the life, as well as high level of risk tolerance. They resort to contingent professional tactics, and have a short-term vision of the future. At the same time, their position is unstable, financially vulnerable, and highly dependent on the amount of resources (mainly economic and social capitals) at their disposal
    Keywords: unstable employment, employment trajectories, precariousness, non-standard employment, qualitative analysis, CQR method.
    JEL: Z13 Z1
    Date: 2017
  12. By: Yun Liang (University of Waikato); John Gibson (University of Waikato)
    Abstract: China’s fertility rate is below replacement level. The government is attempting to increase this rate by relaxing the one-child policy. China faces a possible trade-off since further urbanization is needed to raise incomes but may reduce future fertility. We decompose China’s rural-urban fertility gaps using both de facto and de jure criteria for defining the urban population. The fertility-depressing effects of holding urban hukou are more than three times larger than are effects of urban residence. Since hukou registration is not a fundamental socio-economic constraint, it could be reformed by China’s policy makers in order to weaken the possible trade-off between goals of encouraging urbanization and encouraging higher fertility.
    Keywords: fertility; Hukou; urbanization; China
    JEL: J13
    Date: 2017–03–25
  13. By: Hongbo Wang (Oklahoma State University); Dan Rickman (Oklahoma State University)
    Abstract: An integrative analysis of several regional economic outcome variables in China for the period of 1995-2013 reveal the major sources of regional growth differences in China. Patterns of growth in population, per capita income, gross regional product, housing prices and changes in unemployment rates are identified using principal components analysis. Regression analysis of principal component scores is applied to identify geographic patterns in the sources of the growth. The analysis suggests that shifts in labor supply largely were responsible for the regional growth differences over the period, though shifts in labor demand were nearly equally as important. The results have implications for evaluating the success of regional development policies such as the Western Development Strategy.
    Keywords: China, Regional growth, Western Development Strategy
    JEL: R11 R12 R23 R58
    Date: 2017–03
  14. By: Bachev, Hrabrin
    Abstract: The issue of assessment sustainability of agricultural farms as a whole and of different type is among the most topical for researchers, farmers, investors, administrators, politicians, interests groups and public at large. Despite that practically there are no assessments on sustainability level of Bulgarian farms in conditions of European Union Common Agricultural Policy implementation. This article applies a holistic framework and assesses sustainability of Bulgarian farms as a whole and of different juridical type, size, production specialisation, and ecological and geographical location. Initially the method of the study is outlined, and overall characteristics of surveyed holdings presented. After that an assessment is made of integral, governance, economic, social, environmental sustainability of farms in general and of different type and location. Next, structure of farms with different sustainability levels is analysed. Finally, factors for improving sustainability of Bulgarian farms are identified, and directions for further research and amelioration of farm management and public intervention in the sector suggested.
    Keywords: farm sustainability, governance, economic, social, ecological aspects, Bulgaria
    JEL: Q1 Q12 Q13 Q15 Q18
    Date: 2017–01
  15. By: BLINOV, Sergey
    Abstract: Forecasts showing how the economy will be developing are very important both for the government and for all the economic agents, including citizens. In Russia, the common practice is to forecast based on price assumptions for hydrocarbons, primarily oil. Such an approach causes serious errors. This paper proposes a different approach driven by the close linkage between the GDP and the real money supply. By way of an example, forecast scenarios for Russia’s GDP in 2017 are adduced. Options for using the proposed methodology in economic, including anti-crisis, policies are suggested. Прогнозы развития экономики очень важны как для государства, так и для всех экономических агентов, включая граждан. В России распространённой практикой является прогнозирование, базирующееся на предположениях о ценах на углеводородное сырьё, прежде всего нефть. Такой подход приводит к серьёзным ошибкам. В данной работе предлагается другой подход, основанный на тесной взаимосвязи ВВП и реальной денежной массы. В качестве примера приведены варианты прогноза ВВП России на 2017 год. Предложены варианты использования предложенной методики в экономической, в том числе антикризисной, политике.
    Keywords: денежно-кредитная политика; экономические циклы; методы прогнозирования; энергоресурсы;
    JEL: C53 C54 E37 E52 Q43
    Date: 2017–03–12
  16. By: Seitz, William; Presbitero, Andrea; Zazzaro, Alberto
    Abstract: Economic sanctions usually fail, sometimes even provoking the opposite of the intended outcome. Why are sanctions so often ineffective? One prominent view is that sanctions generate popular support for the targeted government; an outcome referred to as the rally-around-the-flag effect. But despite substantial anecdotal evidence, the lack of suitable data gathered during sanction events has prevented direct study of the rally-around-the-flag effect. We address this gap using a panel household survey in Ukraine that collected data on political and economic preferences before and after a major trade dispute with the Russian Federation. The dispute led to a cut in gas exports to Ukraine and dramatically increasing gas prices for consumers. Our findings show that people more directly affected by the sharp increase in gas prices were substantially more likely to change their political views in a "pro-Western" direction and in support of a more open democratic system. We identify a similar effect regarding economic policies, leading to more than a doubling in the likelihood of supporting liberal market views. Suggestive but less conclusive evidence also suggests that Ukrainians who were more directly affected by the dispute were more likely to support joining the European Union.
    Keywords: Foreign relations, Natural gas, Eastern Europe, Russia, Ukraine, Sanctions, Gas Dispute, Rally-Around-the-Flag, Economic sanctions
    JEL: F13 F51
    Date: 2017–03
  17. By: Suzuki, Aya; Vu, Hoang Nam
    Abstract: Despite the growth of aquaculture exports from developing countries in recent years, a high percentage of these products are rejected at developed countries' ports because of non-compliance with international standards. This paper presents a case study of the shrimp aquaculture sector in Vietnam to examine the factors behind the persistence of such port rejections. In particular, we focus on why the so-called Better Management Practices (BMPs) are not appropriately adopted by many farmers and examine whether the number and types of information sources matter in farmers' decisions on BMP adoption and whether BMP adoption actually leads to better performances. On the basis of our estimation using primary data collected in Southern Vietnam, we find that information sources and training experiences indeed matter in the adoption of a higher number of BMPs and that BMP adoption indeed reduces the possibility of disease outbreaks. These results prove the effectiveness of BMPs and suggest the importance of disseminating knowledge regarding them to farmers through experts.
    Keywords: Aquaculture, Production management, Quality control, International trade, Vietnam, Port rejection, Better Management Practices
    JEL: L15 O13 O19 F63
    Date: 2017–03
  18. By: Vernikov, Andrei; Mamonov, Mikhail
    Abstract: We study the determinants of longer-term bank lending to the real economy in Russia. Our empirical results confirm the «development view» of state-controlled banks who display the highest propensity to lend long-term. We control for such variables as cost of funding and the market power in the corporate loan market. The share of long-term loans in bank assets would benefit from a lower average cost of funds and a diversification of funding sources, as well as larger average size of banks, higher capital adequacy and a less risky lending policy.
    Keywords: Russia, bank lending, state-controlled banks
    JEL: E50 G21 O16 P2
    Date: 2017–02–27
  19. By: Wyatt J. Brooks (University of Notre Dame); Joseph Kaboski (University of Notre Dame); Yao Amber Li (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)
    Abstract: Industrial clusters are promoted by policy and generally viewed as good for growth and development, but both clusters and policies may also enable non- competitive behavior. This paper studies the presence of non-competitive pricing in geographic industrial clusters. We develop, validate, and apply a novel test for collusive behavior. We derive the test from the solution to a partial cartel of perfectly colluding firms in an industry. Outside of a cartel, a firm’s markup depends on its market share, but in the cartel, markups across firms converge and depend instead on the total market share of the cartel. Empirically, we validate the test using plants with common owners, and then test for collusion using data from Chinese manufacturing firms (1999-2009). We find strong evidence for non-competitive pricing within a subset of industrial clusters, and we find the level of non-competitive pricing is about four times higher in Chinese special economic zones than outside those zones.
    JEL: L11 O10 O25 R11
    Date: 2017–03
  20. By: Yin-Wong Cheung (City University of Hong Kong); Cho-Hoi Hui (Hong Kong Monetary Authority); Andrew Tsang (Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research)
    Abstract: We study the renminbi (RMB) central parity formation mechanism following the August 2015 reform. Statistical models are formulated to assess the linkages between the central parity and the alternative variants of the RMB exchange rate, market volatility and selected control variables. In a linear regression framework, we identify the roles of the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates and the US dollar index, but not the RMB currency basket index. However, the marginal effect of the RMB index is revealed via a multiplicative interaction model that incorporates a condition variable given by the volatility of the offshore RMB market. The offshore RMB volatility exerts a dampening effect on the links between the central parity and its determinants, reflecting that Chinese authorities do not hesitate to adjust their policy actions under threat of high volatility.
    Keywords: China¡¯s Exchange Rate Policy, Currency Basket, Multiplicative Interaction Model, Onshore and Offshore RMB Rates, Volatility
    JEL: F31 F33
    Date: 2017–03

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