nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2017‒01‒22
23 papers chosen by
J. David Brown
United States Census Bureau

  1. The Effect of Labor Migration on the Diffusion of Democracy: Evidence from a Former Soviet Republic By Toman Barsbai; Hillel Rapoport; Andreas Steinmayr; Christoph Trebesch
  2. Job retention among older workers in Central and Eastern Europe By Piotr Lewandowski; Wojciech Hardy; Aneta Kielczewska
  3. Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia; 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report By International Monetary Fund.
  4. Does corporate governance matter in fund management company: the case of china By Mamatzakis, Emmanuel; Xu, Bingrun
  5. The Consumption Response to Minimum Wages: Evidence from Chinese Households By Ernest Dautovic; Harald Hau; Yi Huang
  6. Republic of Armenia; Fourth Review Under the Extended Arrangement and Request for Waiver and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Armenia By International Monetary Fund.
  7. What shapes social attitudes toward corruption in China? Micro-level evidence By Fungáčová, Zuzana; Määttä, Ilari; Weill, Laurent
  8. Monetary policy transmission mechanism in Poland.What do we know in 2015? By Mariusz Kapuściński; Andrzej Kocięcki; Halina Kowalczyk; Tomasz Łyziak; Jan Przystupa; Ewa Stanisławska; Anna Sznajderska; Ewa Wróbel
  9. Capital flows and growth dynamics in Central and Eastern Europe By Karsten Staehr
  10. Hidden and non measurable trade policies: the case of state controlled firms By G. Rossini
  11. Money Versus the Soul: Neoliberal Economics in the Education Modernisation Reform of Post-Soviet Russia By Elena V. Minina
  12. Republic of Serbia; Sixth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Modification of the Arrangement Review Schedule-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Serbia By International Monetary Fund.
  13. Banks as corporate monitors: Evidence from CEO turnovers in China By He, Qing; Huang, Jiyuan; Li, Dongxu; Lu, Liping
  14. Political influence, firm performance and survival By Sokolov, Vladimir; Solanko, Laura
  15. Reforming and Restructuring Ukrzaliznytsia: A Crucial Task for Ukrainian Reformers By Pittman, Russell
  16. The impact of the euro adoption on the complexity of goods in Slovenian exports By Piotr Gabrielczak; Tomasz Serwach
  17. The Impact of Kyrgyzstan’s Accession to the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) on the Structure of Kyrgyz Consumer Demand – A Preliminary Assessment – By Adiiaeva, Chinara; Grings, Michael
  18. Margins of Trade: Czech Firms Before, During and After the Crisis By Kamil Galuscak; Ivan Sutoris
  19. Diversification of Research on Economic Awareness and Education of Poles By Ewa Cichowicz; Agnieszka K. Nowak
  20. Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia; Selected Issues By International Monetary Fund.
  21. Financial and insurance literacy in Poland By Marcin Kawiński; Piotr Majewski
  22. Military expenditures and shadow economy in the Baltic States: Is there a link? By Fedotenkov, Igor; Schneider, Friedrich
  23. The impact of migrant remittances on economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic By Zhunusova, Eliza

  1. By: Toman Barsbai; Hillel Rapoport; Andreas Steinmayr; Christoph Trebesch
    Abstract: Migration contributes to the circulation of goods, knowledge, and ideas. Using community and individual-level data from Moldova, we show that the emigration wave that started in the aftermath of the Russian crisis of 1998 strongly affected electoral outcomes and political preferences in Moldova during the following decade, eventually contributing to the fall of the last Communist government in Europe. Our results are suggestive of information transmission and cultural diffusion channels. Identification relies on the quasi-experimental context and on the differential effects arising from the fact that emigration was directed both to more democratic Western Europe and to less democratic Russia.
    Keywords: Emigration;Political institutions;Elections;Social networks;Information transmission;Cultural diffusion
    JEL: F22 D72 O1
    Date: 2016–09
  2. By: Piotr Lewandowski; Wojciech Hardy; Aneta Kielczewska
    Abstract: We study job retention among older workers in Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia, using EU-LFS data for the 1998-2013 period. We find that, on average, about 30% of workers aged 55-59 were in the same job over five years. Job retention rates were higher among men than among women. Between 2003 and 2013, retention rates increased for both men and women in Poland and for men in Czechia, fluctuated for both men and women in Slovakia, and decreased noticeably for both men and women in Hungary. We estimate bivariate probit models of job retention and non-retirement among 60-64-year-olds. Workers with tertiary education, in high-skilled jobs, in the education and health sectors, and who were living with a working partner were more likely to remain in their job over a five-year period. Changes in retention rates over time were driven more by changes in overall conditions than by changes in job-related and personal characteristics.
    Keywords: job retention, retirement, transition to retirement, pension system, bivariate probit
    JEL: J21 J26 J63
    Date: 2016–12
  3. By: International Monetary Fund.
    Abstract: This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economy of the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia has been growing at a solid pace on the back of strong domestic demand and exports. The real GDP is now 16 percent above its precrisis level. In 2015, GDP growth increased to 3.8 percent from 3.6 percent in 2014. The unemployment rate continues to decline. Headline inflation has hovered at zero for the last two years, while core inflation turned positive at the end of 2015. GDP growth is projected to soften in 2016 but pick up in the medium term contingent on the return of political stability.
    Keywords: Article IV consultation reports;Economic growth;Fiscal policy;Fiscal consolidation;Unemployment;Labor markets;Pension reforms;Monetary policy;Bank supervision;Economic indicators;Debt sustainability analysis;Staff Reports;Press releases;former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYR Macedonia);
    Date: 2016–11–21
  4. By: Mamatzakis, Emmanuel; Xu, Bingrun
    Abstract: This study investigates the effectiveness of the contractual governance of Chinese fund management companies by using comprehensive governance data over the period from 2005 to 2015. The study finds that board size a negative impact on its performance and market share. The findings are consistent with the ‘agency cost’ hypothesis. This paper also finds a positive association between the percentage of independent directors and market share and a negative correlation between the percentage of independent directors and the expense ratio. Moreover, a fund management company with a higher level of managerial ownership and a higher proportion of institutional investors results in more effective fund governance; however, a larger institutional investor holding may lead to a higher expense ratio.
    Keywords: Contractual governance, governance effectiveness, board size, board structure, managerial ownership, institutional investors’ holding
    JEL: G20 G23 G30 G34
    Date: 2017–01–11
  5. By: Ernest Dautovic (University of Lausanne); Harald Hau (University of Geneva and Swiss Finance Institute); Yi Huang (The Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies)
    Abstract: This paper evaluates the Chinese minimum wage policy for the period 2002-2009 in terms of its impact on low income household consumption. Using a representative household panel, we find support for the permanent income hypothesis, whereby unanticipated and persistent income increases due to minimum wage policy change are fully spent. The impact is driven by households with at least one child. We infer significant positive welfare effects for low income households based on expenditure increases concentrated in health care and education, whereas a negative employment effect of higher minimum wage cannot be confirmed.
    Keywords: Minimum wages; Labor income; Household consumption; Permanent income hypothesis
    JEL: E24 J38 C26
    Date: 2017–01
  6. By: International Monetary Fund.
    Abstract: External developments–notably relating to remittances and copper prices–have remained adverse, contributing to subdued domestic demand and deflationary conditions, but export performance has continued to be relatively strong. As a result, the current account deficit has narrowed further while pressures on the fiscal accounts have intensified. Cumulative tax revenues through September declined by ½ percent vis-à -vis the same period of last year, and show an even higher shortfall with respect to projections in the budget. On the positive side, the National Assembly approved the new Tax Code, which is expected to improve the tax environment considerably and boost medium-term revenues. Monetary conditions have stabilized, and the Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) has continued to unwind past tightening measures. Conditions in the banking sector remain challenging, with relatively high NPLs and low credit growth, but the sector remains well capitalized, and the CBA’s policy of increasing minimum capital requirements has led to an orderly consolidation process. A new Cabinet with a technocratic profile was appointed in September with the objective of strengthening economic management. New parliamentary elections are expected to take place in April/May 2017, as Armenia continues its transition from a presidential to a parliamentary system.
    Keywords: Extended arrangement reviews;Economic conditions;Export growth;Fiscal policy;Banking sector;Monetary policy;Exchange rate assessments;Macroprudential Policy;Economic indicators;Letters of Intent;Debt sustainability analysis;Staff Reports;Press releases;Performance criteria modifications;Armenia;
    Date: 2016–12–13
  7. By: Fungáčová, Zuzana; Määttä, Ilari; Weill, Laurent
    Abstract: ​This research investigates the determinants of corruption in China using micro-level data. We use survey data on 6,000 households from 28 provinces to estimate logit models that show how corruption perceptions and attitudes to corruption are shaped by individual and provincial determinants. Respondents who see themselves as lower class, as well as members of the Communist Party of China, are more likely to perceive and reject corruption than other respondents. People in rural areas perceive less corruption, but do not differ in their attitudes toward corruption.
    JEL: H11 K42 P16
    Date: 2016–12–05
  8. By: Mariusz Kapuściński; Andrzej Kocięcki; Halina Kowalczyk; Tomasz Łyziak; Jan Przystupa; Ewa Stanisławska; Anna Sznajderska; Ewa Wróbel
    Abstract: In this study we present a complex analysis of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Poland. We find that this mechanism is quite stable, although the relative strength of its channels has been changing. In particular, the decline in the role of the exchange channel over the recent years has been accompanied by the growing role of credit (and the credit channel) and the growing anticipation of economicagents. In connection with the latter, in the assessment of the economic impact of the monetary policy, not only decisions in the scope of short-term interest rates but also central bank communication should be taken into account.
    Keywords: Monetary transmission mechanism, Poland
    JEL: E43 E52
    Date: 2016
  9. By: Karsten Staehr
    Abstract: This paper assesses the importance of capital flows as measured by the current account balance for the growth dynamics of the EU countries from Central and Eastern Europe. Economic growth in these countries was on average relatively high before the global financial crisis but markedly lower after the crisis. Panel data econometrics using annual data for 1997–2015 points to the contemporaneous current account balance having a sizeable negative effect on annual GDP growth. Estimations using many control variables and instrumental variables suggest that the negative effect is mainly demand driven. Counterfactual simulations show that growth rates in all CEE countries would have been lower in the absence of capital flows, and this applies particularly to the countries with the most disadvantageous starting points
    Keywords: business cycles, output performance, capital flows, current account balance, transition economies
    JEL: P17 P21 P36
    Date: 2017–01–13
  10. By: G. Rossini
    Abstract: A hot issue in trade negotiations concerns the existence of stateowned firms and state subsidies. Disputes between the US and the EU and the issue of the recognition of the status of a market economy to China are often the epitome of that. In Germany the giant Volkswagen is state controlled, in China almost 1/3 of firms are state controlled and loom in almost all industries often with relevant or even dominant market shares. State enterprises maximize home social welfare. When they export or compete with foreign producers at home their specific objective function make them a useful vehicle for disguised trade policies. We investigate trade cases with oligopoly and state or quasi state owned firms. Increasing returns to scale come into the picture in some instances. Dumping and foreclosure of the domestic market emerge explaining both the possibility of having home prices higher or lower than export prices. Possible counteracting policies can be devised and an example of a production subsidy is presented.
    JEL: F12 F13 L32
    Date: 2017–01
  11. By: Elena V. Minina (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: Through the examination of the concept of ‘commercial service’ the article explores the ideological underpinnings and cultural embeddings of the market economy in post-Soviet education modernisation reform vis-a-vis the makeup of indigenous Russian culture and pedagogy. While post-Soviet Russia’s educational sector has been extensively commercialised, the public attitude towards the new educational economics have remained largely antagonistic. By bringing together the economic and the ideological angles, I show how bottom-up resistance is maintained and normalised, triggering a policy backlash. The article probes the obstinate public resistance to the idea of education as a ‘commodity’ and exposes the cultural logic behind it. Drawing on discourse studies and policy borrowing frameworks, the analysis demonstrates how the market values of competitive individualism, material profit and entrepreneurship were left under-conceptualised in the official discourse and consequently rejected in the public discourse in favour of domestic values of egalitarianism, collegiality, moral education, and an orientation towards non-materialist values
    Keywords: Russian education reform post-Soviet education, neoliberalism, education commercialisation
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2016
  12. By: International Monetary Fund.
    Abstract: The program remains on track and the economy continues to strengthen. Significant fiscal over-performance and renewed efforts to address structural weaknesses have helped boost confidence. This, along with a healthy credit recovery on the back of substantial monetary policy easing, has helped restore robust growth, while persistently low inflation has reinforced recovery in real incomes. Public debt has started to decline.
    Date: 2016–12–21
  13. By: He, Qing; Huang, Jiyuan; Li, Dongxu; Lu, Liping
    Abstract: ​This paper examines the governance role of banks in replacement of underperforming CEOs in firms listed on Chinese stock exchanges. Under most circumstances, the findings suggest that the presence of outstanding loans does not increase the probability that a poorly performing CEO will be forced out and replaced. However, there is a positive and significant effect if the under-performing firm relies heavily on secured and short-term bank lending. Bank loans increase the likelihood of a forced CEO turnover in private firms, especially where joint-equity banks serve as the main lenders to the firm. There is no similar increase in the probability of a CEO turnover for state-owned firms or firms that borrow mainly from state-owned banks. Thus, where state ownership of banks and listed firms implies inefficiency or reluctance on monitoring borrower performance, there is an opportunity to improve loan contract arrangements to improve the mon-itoring role of lending banks.
    JEL: G21 G30 G32 G38 K22
    Date: 2016–12–19
  14. By: Sokolov, Vladimir; Solanko, Laura
    Abstract: We examine how regional-level political influence affects firm financial performance and survival. Combining representative survey data on mid-sized manufacturing firms in Russia with official registry data, we find that politically influential firms exhibit higher profitability and retain larger financial investments than non-influential firms. At the same time, we find no association between regional political influence and access to bank lending. Most importantly, our empirical analysis suggests that the benefits of influence may be transient. Influential firms experienced significantly lower growth during our 2004–2010 sample period than non-influential firms. Moreover, influential firms had a significantly higher probability of going bankrupt after the 2008 global financial crisis than non-influential firms.
    JEL: D22 D72 G38
    Date: 2016–12–22
  15. By: Pittman, Russell
    Abstract: If the Ukrainian economy is to be successfully restructured going forward, a restructured railway system will have to be part of the picture. Ukraine’s economy depends on the production and sale of a number of bulk commodities, including coal, iron ore, steel, and agricultural products, that require shipment by rail in order to reach both domestic and export markets economically. In this paper we first discuss in more detail the crucial role that UZ plays in the Ukrainian economy. We follow with a survey of the world experience with railways restructuring: a large number of countries have already undertaken the task of converting aging government-owned monopoly railways into more dynamic and competitive transport enterprises, and their experience in very diverse settings may have important lessons to offer. We then examine the current state of rail reform plans in Ukraine. We conclude with discussions of an alternative path forward that seems most likely to be successful in Ukraine, based on both the experience elsewhere and the country’s current situation.
    Keywords: Ukrainian Railways (Ukrzaliznytsia), railways, reform, restructuring, vertical separation, horizontal separation, competition, investment
    JEL: L43 L92 P31 R42
    Date: 2016–12–01
  16. By: Piotr Gabrielczak (Faculty of Economics and Sociology, University of Lodz); Tomasz Serwach (Faculty of Economics and Sociology, University of Lodz)
    Abstract: In this paper, we estimate Erceg, Henderson and Levin’s [2000] sticky price and sticky wage dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model while allowing for wage or price Calvo parameters regime switching and compare this with the constant parameters model. Our results suggest that the model with price and wage rigidity switching is strongly favored by the data. However, we do not find significant evidence in support of independent Markov chains. Moreover, we identify historical periods when price and wage stickiness were low and show that during such periods, the economy reacts more strongly to structural shocks.
    Keywords: Eurozone, international trade, Slovenia, complexity, synthetic control method.
    JEL: C21 F14 F15
    Date: 2017–01
  17. By: Adiiaeva, Chinara; Grings, Michael
    Abstract: The selected paper presented at the IAMO Samarkand Conference
    Keywords: International Development, International Relations/Trade, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,
    Date: 2016–11–04
  18. By: Kamil Galuscak; Ivan Sutoris
    Abstract: We investigate the extensive and intensive margins of trade of Czech firms in periods before, during and after the crisis of 2008-2009. The intensive margin explains most of the aggregate export growth in 2006-2014, which corroborates previous findings for other countries. The contribution of the extensive margin is smaller, explaining on average 39% of the aggregate export growth in 2006-2007 and around 25% to 30% of that in the post-crisis period. The lower contribution of the extensive margin may signal a lower rate of convergence of the Czech economy. The results indicate that the crisis had a more severe impact on small exporting firms and that exports to countries outside the EU gained more prominence in the post-crisis years. Our results are similar to findings from previous studies on the impact of participation in global value chains on firms' trade. Specifically, a more negative impact of the crisis was observed for exports with higher import intensity. Overall, our results point to the importance of using disaggregated data in the analysis of countries' export performance.
    Keywords: Exports, firms' heterogeneity, global crisis, intensive and extensive margins, production chains
    JEL: F02 F20 G01
    Date: 2016–12
  19. By: Ewa Cichowicz (Warsaw School of Economics); Agnieszka K. Nowak (Warsaw School of Economics)
    Abstract: The principal objective of this review is to determine whether the conducted studies provide a diagnosis of the Poles’ economic awareness and of economic education actions undertaken in Poland. To make this evaluation we first analysed the issues which the studies are focused on and synthetically presented their key results. We further analysed which groups participate in those studies and what institutions commission such research. The summary, in addition to conclusions resulting from the presented considerations, offered initial recommendations which, if implemented, could contribute to better verification of the Poles’ economic awareness and knowledge in empirical studies. The authors first reviewed the literature, which resulted in defining conceptual boundaries of terms critical to the topic of this paper. The core research material was constituted by selected reports from studies of economic awareness and education of Poles and an analysis of those studies.
    Keywords: economic awareness, economic literacy, economic education
    JEL: A20 C83 I21 I25
    Date: 2017
  20. By: International Monetary Fund.
    Abstract: This Selected Issues paper quantifies the short- and medium-term growth effects of major ongoing highway and railway projects in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. A standard neoclassical growth model is augmented with public capital to capture both demand and supply-side effects of public infrastructure investments. The calibrated model suggests that the four ongoing highway and railway investments of 2–3 percent of GDP annually for 2014–18 are likely to raise the growth rate of real GDP by 0.5 percentage points on average for each year in 2014–20. Enhancing public investment efficiency can increase growth effects up to 0.8 percentage points.
    Keywords: Public investment;Infrastructure;Foreign direct investment;Economic growth;Employment;Labor market reforms;Spillovers;Selected Issues Papers;former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYR Macedonia);
    Date: 2016–11–21
  21. By: Marcin Kawiński (Warsaw School of Economics); Piotr Majewski (WSB University in Toruń)
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to present critical analysis of different concepts related to financial literacy. Discussion of usefulness of standard questions on financial literacy and presenting data on the first Polish research of standard questions on financial literacy compared with selected countries. And finally presenting questionnaire for insurance literacy and findings from Polish research.
    Keywords: financial literacy, insurance literacy
    JEL: D14 D83 G11 G21 G22 I20
    Date: 2017
  22. By: Fedotenkov, Igor; Schneider, Friedrich
    Abstract: The main goal of our paper is to determine the existence of a link between government (military) expenditures and the shadow economy in the Baltic States. The empirical investigation is done over the years 2003-2014 for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. We showed that there is a highly statistically significant positive dependence between the size of the shadow economy and military expenditures in the Baltic States. Our conclusion is that higher military expenditures indeed lead to a higher shadow economy and this result is robust to different model specifications. In order to demonstrate the importance of our highly statistically significant results we undertook a simulation where we calculated how much the size of the shadow economy would increase if the size of military expenditure as a percentage of GDP doubled: In Estonia such an expansion would have led to an increase in the size of the shadow economy from 27.1% to 30.1%, in Latvia from 24.7% to 26.1% and in Lithuania from 27.1% to 28.4% in 2014.
    Keywords: Shadow economy, military expenditures, Baltic States
    JEL: E26 E62 H26 H50 H56 O17
    Date: 2017–01–02
  23. By: Zhunusova, Eliza
    Abstract: The selected paper presented at the IAMO Samarkand Conference
    Keywords: Agricultural Finance, International Development, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2016–11–04

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