nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2017‒01‒01
28 papers chosen by
J. David Brown
United States Census Bureau

  1. Planning R&D in a Post Centrally-Planned Economy: Assessing the Macroeconomic Effects in Poland By Katarzyna Zawalińska; Nhi Tran; Adam Płoszaj
  2. Human Capital and Urbanization in the People’s Republic of China By Xing, Chunbing
  3. What drives export performance of firms in Eastern and Western Poland? By Pawel Gajewski; Grzegorz Tchorek
  4. “Agricultural Economics and Rural Development - realities and perspectives for Romania” By Ursu, Ana
  6. Stock Market Development and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from China By Lei Pan; Vinod Mishra
  7. Housing System and Urbanization in the People’s Republic of China By Chen, Jie
  8. The Increasing Inequality of Wealth in China, 2002-2013 By John Knight; LI Shi
  9. Evaluating the Impacts of Traditional Biomass Energy Use on Agricultural Production in Sichuan, China By Chen, Qiu; Mirzabaev, Alisher
  10. Cross border banking: Pull-push effects of parent banks on subsidiaries' credit extensions By Gattini, Luca; Zagorisiou, Angeliki
  11. Effect of Internal Migration on Air and Water Pollution in China By Shuddhasattwa Rafiq; Ingrid Nielsen; Russell Smyth
  12. Basis for Bank Credit Allocation in China’s Private Sector: Political Connection or Firm Performance? By Wenli Cheng; Yongzheng Wu
  13. FDI and Inequality in Vietnam: An Approach with Census Data By John McLaren; Myunghwan Yoo
  14. New silk Road - Trade and Investment. Perspectives for EU and New Partnerships By Fernanda Ilhéu
  15. Financial Variables in a Policy Rule: Does It Bring Macroeconomic Benefits? By Jan Zacek
  16. Effect of Particulate Air Pollution on Coronary Heart Disease in China: Evidence from Threshold GAM and Bayesian Hierarchical Model By Xiaoyu Chen;
  17. Food consumption and diet quality choices of Roma in Romania: A counterfactual analysis By Ciaian, Pavel; Cupak, Andrej; Pokrivcak, Jan; Rizov, Marian
  18. Land Ownership, Access to Informal Credit and Its Cost in Rural Vietnam. By Migheli, Matteo
  19. The Persistence of Trade Policy in China After WTO Accession By Jason Garred
  20. Fiscal Decentralisation, the Knowledge Economy and School Teachers’ Wages in Urban China By Yi Long; Chris Nyland; Russell Smyth
  21. Financial Supply Index and Financial Supply Cycles in New EU Member States By Tomislav Globan
  22. The Effect of House Price on Stock Market Participation in China: Evidence from the CHFS Micro-Data By Xiaoyu Chen; Xiaohao Ji
  23. Language, Health Outcomes and Health Inequality By Haining Wang; Zhiming Cheng; Russell Smyth
  24. Tariff Scares: Trade policy uncertainty and foreign market entry by Chinese firms By Crowley, M.; Song, H.; Meng, N.
  25. The impact of trade and technology on wage components By Borrs, Linda; Knauth, Florian
  26. Influence of the Global Financial Crisis on Fiscal Burden in the EU Economies By Adam P. Balcerzak
  27. International migration, return migration, and their effects. A comprehensive review on the Romanian case By Anghel, Remus Gabriel; Botezat, Alina; Cosciug, Anatolie; Manafi, Ioana; Roman, Monica
  28. Are school-provided skills useful at work? Results of the Wiles test By Jacek Liwiński

  1. By: Katarzyna Zawalińska; Nhi Tran; Adam Płoszaj
    Abstract: Half a century of centrally planned policy in the Central and Eastern European countries resulted in outdated technologies, inefficient allocation of resources and low productivity. Following the end of communism there was a fifteen year process of transition which ended in 2004 with eight post-communist countries joining the European Union (EU) of which Poland was the largest. As part of the EU these countries now face the challenge of the common EU strategy Europe 2020, which has set the target of achieving R&D expenditure to GDP ratio (called the R&D intensity) of 3% by 2020 for the Union as a whole in an effort to increase the competitiveness of the region. Poland, like the other post-communist countries, faces a lower target of R&D intensity, set at 1.7%. Nevertheless, the challenge is immense, since the country is still at only half that level and has little experience in developing policies to help achieve it. In this paper we tested two possible policy options to achieve the target: (1) to increase government expenditures on R&D and; (2) to provide tax relief on R&D to businesses. The method applied to assess the options is a multi-regional recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for Poland with an explicit link between productivity and R&D stock. The results show that achieving the R&D intensity target via the use of tax relief is 2.5 times more costly to the government budget, but it has a greater impact on the economy in terms of a higher GDP growth. Tax relief proved efficient in the short run while in the long run the government expenditure policy provides better value for money.
    Keywords: R& D policy, productivity spillovers, stock of knowledge, CGE model, macroeconomic effects, post-communist countries
    JEL: O32 O38 O47 C68 P27
    Date: 2016–12
  2. By: Xing, Chunbing (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: The relationship between human capital development and urbanization in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is explored, highlighting the institutional factors of the hukou system and a decentralized fiscal system. Educated workers disproportionately reside in urban areas and in large cities. Returns to education are significantly higher in urban areas relative to those in rural areas, as well as in large, educated cities relative to small, less-educated cities. In addition, the external returns to education in urban areas are at least comparable to the magnitude of private returns. Rural areas are the major reservoir for urban population growth, and the more educated have a higher chance of moving to cities and obtaining urban hukou. Relaxing the hukou restriction, increasing education levels of rural residents, providing training for rural–urban migrants, and guaranteeing equal opportunity for all residents are necessary for a sustainable urbanization process in the PRC. In terms of health, rural–urban migration is selective in that healthy rural residents choose to migrate. Occupational choices and living conditions are detrimental to migrants’ health, however. While migration has a positive effect on migrant children, its effect on “left-behind” children is unclear.
    Keywords: Human capital; health; education; development; hukou system; urbanization
    JEL: I12 J24 R23
    Date: 2016–12–22
  3. By: Pawel Gajewski (Institute of Economic Sciences, Polish Academy of Sciences); Grzegorz Tchorek (Faculty of Management, University of Warsaw)
    Abstract: We use a unique firm-level survey dataset that draws from the EFIGE (European Firms In Global Economy) questionnaire, to unveil differences in factors driving export performance in structurally most diverse areas of Poland. While conventional results about the role of size, foreign ownership and innovation activity are confirmed at the aggregate level, the picture breaks down when Western and Eastern macroregions are extracted. Our results suggest that the common perception of a more developed West (Poland “A”) and a backward East (Poland “B”) might be outdated. Rather, firms in both regions seem to follow distinct strategies and have dissimilar success factors for competing internationally. Interestingly, export performance in the East is found to benefit from family ties in business, but also product innovation and non-price competitiveness. In the West, it is in turn associated mostly with size and foreign ownership. Overall, our results on the one hand add support to the ‘New’ new trade theory and ‘New’ new economic geography’s premises related to the importance of microeconomic factors and, on the other, shed a new light on the pattern of regional development in Poland. We also discuss some implications for policy makers and managers and suggest directions of further research.
    Keywords: trade, region, firm, competitiveness
    JEL: F14 R12
    Date: 2017–01
  4. By: Ursu, Ana
    Abstract: The volume contains the papers accepted and published in the proceedings of the 7th International symposium entitled: “Agrarian Economy and Rural Development - Realities and Perspectives for Romania”, organized by the Institute of Research for Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Bucharest in cooperation with, The Institute for Agrarian Economy Romanian Academy, Bucharest, Romania, University of Agrarian Sciences and Veterinary Medicine – The Faculty Of Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development, Bucharest, Romania, Institute for Economy, Finance and Statistics, Chisinau, Republic of Moldova, Institute of Agricultural Economics, Belgrade – Serbia, Academy of Economic Studies - The Faculty Of Agro-Food And Environment Economy, Bucharest, Romania, under the high scientific patronage of Academy of Agriculture and Forest Sciences "Gheorghe Ionescu Sisesti", held in Bucharest, Romania, November, 24, 2016. The proceedings are structured in accordance with the sessions of the conference and it includes papers and relevant contributions on plenary speakers, Economy, management and agricultural marketing and Rural development and agricultural policies. Publishing this volume represents a term of the interest expressed by the highest academic and research groups in Romania and EU with interests in the agricultural sector. In the symposium proceedings are shared knowledge, experience and the newest results of your research in the agrarian economy and rural development domain related to enhancing competitiveness of all types of agriculture and promoting innovative agricultural technologies; organizing the food chain, including processing and marketing of agricultural products, animal welfare and risk management in agriculture; preserving and strengthening agricultural ecosystems; efficient use of resources and supporting the shift towards a low carbon economy and resilient to climate change in agriculture and food; social inclusion, poverty reduction and economic development in rural areas etc. The symposium proceedings is structured in 4 specialized sections, where the read my find interesting argues regarding this research field.
    Keywords: agriculture, rural development, rural economy, CAP
    JEL: A1 C1 D2 N50 O1 Q13 Q18 Q57 R11 Z0
    Date: 2016–11–24
  5. By: Slavo Radosevic (UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies); Esin Yoruk (University of Coventry, Coventry Business School)
    Abstract: We explore the issues of measurement of technology upgrading of the economies moving from middle to high-income status. In particular, our focus is on the central and eastern European economies (CEE) within the context of a sample of 42 economies ranging from lower middle income to upper high-income level economies. Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) are largely middle-income economies, but it is not certain whether they have achieved a threshold of technological capability required for catching up to high-income economies status. In exploring this issue, we apply theoretically relevant and empirically grounded middle level conceptual and statistical framework based on three dimensions: intensity and breadth of technological upgrading, and technology and knowledge exchange. As an outcome, we construct a composite indicator of technology upgrading based on 35 indicators which reflect different drivers and patterns of technology upgrading of countries at different income levels. Based on the simple statistical analysis we show that the middle-income trap is present in all dimensions of technology upgrading, but their importance varies across different dimensions. A trap seems to be higher for dimensions of ‘breadth’ of technology upgrading than for index of ‘intensity’ of technology upgrading. We explore in detail positioning of the CEE economies in the broader comparative context. Among the many interesting results, we highlight the following. The highest ranked countries regarding index of technology upgrading are Sweden, Korea, Japan and Germany. Poland has been fast growing CEE economy in the last 20 years, but its potential for technology- based growth is moderate. China’s ranking regarding index of technology upgrading is well above its income per capita which suggests room for further growth based on technology. CEECs are spread widely along index of technology upgrading which reflects partly their income per capita levels but also the different potential for further growth. An important structural feature of the CEE technology upgrading is their openness regarding technology and knowledge flows. A comparative analysis of technology upgrading profiles shows that there is a quite significant EU North – South technology upgrading gap. Regarding index of technology upgrading index, EU regions are ordered from EU North, South, Central and East with the difference between South and Central being relatively small. Regarding technology capability, EU has very strong core – periphery features as the gap between North and three other regions is quite substantial. In this working paper, we explore the issues related to the measurement of technology upgrading of the economies moving from middle to high-income status. In particular, our focus is on the central and eastern European economies (CEE) within the context of a sample of 42 economies ranging from lower middle income to upper high-income level economies.
    Keywords: Technology upgrading
    Date: 2016
  6. By: Lei Pan; Vinod Mishra
    Abstract: It is important to understand the interplay between stock market and real economy to figure out the various channels through which financial markets drive economic growth. In the current study we investigate this relationship for Chinese economy, the fastest growing and largest emerging economy in the world. Using the methodology of unit root testing in the presence of structural breaks and using an ARDL model, we find that Global Financial Crises had a significant impact on both China’s real sector and financial sector. Our findings also suggest that Shanghai A share market has a long run negative association with the real sector of the economy, however the magnitude of impact is tiny and can be ignored. We conjecture that this negative relationship is the proof of so called existence of irrational prosperity on the stock market and the bubbles in China’s financial sector. We do not find any evidence of a relationship between stock market and real economy in the short run. Toda Yamamoto causality test supports the demand-driven hypothesis that economic growth spurs development of stock markets for China’s B share market.
    Keywords: China, Stock Market, Unit Root, Cointegration, Economic Growth
    JEL: O40 G10
    Date: 2016–11
  7. By: Chen, Jie (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: This paper examines how transformations in the housing system in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) influence the PRC pattern of urbanization. It first discusses how housing policies determine the supply and demand of housing in urban PRC and subsequently analyzes how the changes in the mode of housing provision have affected rural–urban migration, intercity labor mobility, the financing of urban infrastructure, and general urban economic activities in the PRC. The PRC experience of the interaction between the housing system and urbanization is unique, but it clearly indicates that an effective housing system that can responsively provide adequate and affordable housing is crucial to the success of inclusive and equitable urbanization.
    Keywords: housing policy; rural-urban migration; intercity labor mobility; urban infrastructure; urbanization; inclusive urbanization; equitable urbanization
    JEL: R30 R38
    Date: 2016–12–22
  8. By: John Knight; LI Shi
    Abstract: The inequality of wealth in China has increased rapidly in recent years. Prior to 1978 all Chinese households possessed negligible wealth. China therefore presents a fascinating case study of how inequality of household wealth increases as economic reform takes place, marketisation occurs, and capital accumulates. Wealth inequality and its growth are measured and decomposed using data from two national sample surveys of the China Household Income Project (CHIP) relating to 2002 and 2013. Techniques are devised and applied to measure the sensitivity of wealth inequality to plausible assumptions about under-representation of and under-reporting by the wealthy. An attempt is made to explain the rising wealth inequality in terms of the relationships between income and wealth, house price inflation, differential saving, and income from wealth.
    Keywords: China; wealth inequality and its decomposition; top-tail income correction; relationships between income and wealth; house price inflation; differential saving; income from wealth
    JEL: C80 D31
    Date: 2016–12–20
  9. By: Chen, Qiu; Mirzabaev, Alisher
    Abstract: As crop straw and firewood are generated as by-products of food production systems, they are perceived to be sustainable energy sources that do not threaten food security by Chinese government for a long time. However, the time spent on collecting straw and firewood may create a burden on rural household, as it could reduce the available labor inputs for agricultural production, which in turn, possibly brings negative impact on food security. Building on an integrated agriculture-energy production system, a Symmetric Normalized Quadratic (SNQ) multi-output profit function (which includes labor allocations as quasi-fixed factors) is estimated to investigate the impacts of traditional biomass energy use on agricultural production in this paper. The negative signs of the calculated cross-price elasticities of supply (agricultural products and biomass energy) confirm that the relationship between biomass collection and agricultural production is competition. Moreover, the cross-price elasticities of biomass collection with respect to inputs are positive, implying that indirect link between biomass collection and agricultural production perhaps lies in household consumption decisions. The important implication of this study is that potential policy interventions for developing biomass energy in rural China could aim at enhancing food security by improving household motivation of engaging in agricultural production and slowing down the competition between biomass collection and agricultural production. It is suggested that government should attach more importance to simultaneously promote the prices of agricultural products and control the prices of intermediate inputs.
    Keywords: biomass collection, agricultural production, labor allocation, China, Demand and Price Analysis, Farm Management, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, O13, Q01, Q12, Q41,
    Date: 2016–12
  10. By: Gattini, Luca; Zagorisiou, Angeliki
    Abstract: This study contributes to the analysis of cross border banking behavior in CESEE (Central Eastern and South Eastern Europe). It detects potential transmission channels from parent to subsidiary banks based on a newly constructed database (323 banks operating in the region and 84 parent banks over the period 2000-2014), which allows for the identification of ultimate ownership over time. On the whole, we find that subsidiary banks provide an extra boost to credit growth at the domestic level. However we detect that domestic and subsidiary banks contracted credit similarly after the financial crisis. Moreover, subsidiaries' ability to extend credit is dependent on home country macroeconomic and financial conditions as well as parent banks' characteristics such as asset quality. Finally, an excessive credit expansions coupled with reductions of capital ratios at the parent bank level jeopardizes subsidiaries' lending capacity. Our findings call for home and host actors to continue to foster cross-border coordination and dialogue.
    Keywords: Cross border banking,Parent and subsidiary banks,Central and Eastern Europe,Asset quality
    JEL: C23 E44 F23 G21
    Date: 2016
  11. By: Shuddhasattwa Rafiq; Ingrid Nielsen; Russell Smyth
    Abstract: We examine the effect of inter-provincial migration on air and water pollution for a panel of Chinese provinces over the period 2000-2013. To do so, we employ linear and non-linear panel data models in a Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT) framework. Our findings from both the linear and non-linear models suggest that inter-provincial migration has contributed to air and water pollution. Results from the second-generation linear panel data models suggest that for every additional 10,000 inter-provincial migrants, chemical oxygen demand (COD) increases 0.33-0.58 per cent and sulphur dioxide (SO2) increases 0.15-0.33 per cent. Our results from the non-linear threshold panel model are that for every additional 10,000 inter-provincial migrants, COD increases 0.2-0.5 per cent and SO2 increases 0.10-0.20 per cent. These estimates mean that over the period 2000-2013 average interprovincial migration was responsible for 7-12.4 per cent of wastewater discharge and 3.2-7 per cent of SO2 emissions in China based on the second-generation linear panel data models and 4.3-10.7 per cent of wastewater discharge and 2.1-4.3 per cent of SO2 emissions based on the non-linear threshold panel model.
    Keywords: China, internal migration, air pollution, water pollution.
    JEL: J10 Q20 Q25 R11 R23
    Date: 2016–11
  12. By: Wenli Cheng; Yongzheng Wu
    Abstract: We study the roles of political connection and firm performance in bank credit allocation in China’s private sector. Based on data from the 9th Nationwide Survey of Privately Owned Enterprises in China conducted in 2010, we find that: (1) Politically connected firms were more likely to gain access to bank credit, but good firm performance did not seem to have improved firms’ chances of obtaining bank loans; (2) Good performance did help firms get more loans - of the firms that had access to bank credit, those with better performance in the previous year had larger amounts of bank loans; and (3) politically connected firms performed better; and better performance had a small effect of helping the owner establish political connection. These suggest that political connection was used as a signal for credit worthiness that entails not only good performance, but also some other intangible assets unrelated to firm performance (e.g., ability to obtain government bailouts) which would protect the firm from financial ruin.
    Keywords: political connection, firm performance, access to bank credit, private firms in China
    JEL: G21
    Date: 2016–11
  13. By: John McLaren; Myunghwan Yoo
    Abstract: We investigate the effects of inward FDI on income distribution and absolute living standards in Vietnam using census data from 1989-2009. We compute the number of employees of foreign establishments in each of Vietnam's provinces for each year, and use that as a measure of local FDI. We estimate the effects of FDI on local households' living standards as reported in the data, broken down by educational background to allow us to analyze effects on inequality. Estimates based on the repeated cross section indicate that rising FDI in a province is associated with a slight decline in living standards for households there if they do not have a member employed by the foreign enterprises, with only modest gains for households who do have a member employed by the foreign enterprises. These estimates may reflect composition effects, however, since we find large movements of people toward the provinces receiving the FDI. The findings show that measuring the effect of FDI on household welfare is more difficult than measuring the effect of trade policy, and may pose a difficulty for the view of FDI as a general anti-poverty strategy.
    JEL: F16 F21 O24
    Date: 2016–12
  14. By: Fernanda Ilhéu
    Abstract: China has already given a fundamental contribution to the present globalization process and have also highly benefited from it by integrating becoming the final stage of the Global Chains Production networks in Asia. This process in China was the result of a survival economic strategy that saw in the attraction of Foreign Direct Investment in intensive low cost workmanship oriented to exports, a fundamental condition to overpass it´s millenary delay. This strategy accepted that the add value that remain in China, although very small was very important to give jobs to millions of Chinese and take them out of the absolute poverty line where they were in 1978 when Deng Xiao Ping launch the 4 Modernizations and the Open Door Policies. Other policies token during the first 30 years of the China Economic Reform, like the Grasp the Big Let Go the Small, the Socialist Market Economy, the Go West and the Go Global were equally important transforming Chinese economy in the second world biggest one. This first globalization stage had its big push in 2001 when China joined the WTO we can say that a new world economic order had begun in that date, placing China in the center of the world.
    Date: 2016–09
  15. By: Jan Zacek (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic)
    Abstract: After the recent financial crisis of 2007, a connection between monetary policy and financial stability has started to be thoroughly investigated. One of the particular areas of this research field deals with the role of various financial variables in the monetary policy rules. The main purpose of this research is to find whether direct incorporation of the financial variables in the monetary policy rule can bring macroeconomic benefits in terms of lower volatility of inflation and output. So far, the main emphasis of the research has been placed on the investigation of the augmented Taylor rules in the context of a closed economy. This paper sheds light on the performance of the augmented Taylor rules in a small open economy. For this purpose, a New Keynesian DSGE model with two types of financial frictions is constructed. The model is calibrated for the Czech Republic. This work provides four conclusions. First, incorporation of the financial variables (asset prices and the volume of credit) in the monetary policy rule is beneficial for macroeconomic stabilization in terms of lower implied volatilities of inflation and output. Second, the usefulness of the augmented monetary policy rule is the most apparent in case of the shock originating abroad. Third, there is a strong link between the financial and the real side of an economy. Fourth, if the banking sector experiences a sharp drop in bank capital that brings this sector into decline, activity in the whole economy deteriorates and monetary policy is not able to achieve macroeconomic stability using its conventional tools.
    Keywords: DSGE models, financial imperfections, inflation targeting, monetary policy
    JEL: E31 E43 E52 E58
    Date: 2016–12
  16. By: Xiaoyu Chen;
    Abstract: There are few multicity studies to address the effect of short-term effect of particulate matter air pollution on daily Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) mortality in developing countries, much fewer to further discuss its threshold and seasonal effect. This study investigates the season-varying association between particulate matter less than or equal to 10 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) and daily CHD mortality in seven cities of China. Time series threshold Poisson regression model is specified to estimate the health effect for four cities with the threshold effect, and conventional linear Poisson model is used to analyze the effect for three cities without threshold. We apply the Bayesian hierarchical model to pool the city-specific estimates into overall level. On average, a 10μg/m3 increase of the moving average concentrations of current-day and previous-day PM10 is associated with an increase of 0.81% (95% Posterior Interval, PI: -0.04%, 1.67%) in daily CHD mortality for all the cities as a whole. The associations are smaller than reported in developed countries or regions with lower polluted level, which is consistent to the findings in the literature. The hazardous effect are higher in hot summer and cold winter (1.15% and 0.89%) but lower in relative warm spring and fall (0.85% and 0.69%). In summary, we found significant associations between short-term exposure to PM10 and CHD mortality in China. The sensitivity analyses in the study support the robustness of our results.
    Date: 2016–12
  17. By: Ciaian, Pavel; Cupak, Andrej; Pokrivcak, Jan; Rizov, Marian
    Abstract: In this paper we analyse the diet quality aspect of food security of Roma in Romania and reveal a possible cultural (institutional) and economic (marginalization) forces determining their food diet choices. To identify the Roma specificities in their diet quality choices, we compare them to the majority Romanian population as well as with control groups of other non-Roma minorities in order to test the robustness of the results. We employ a modified Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition technique which is often used to estimate mean outcome differences among groups. We use unique Household Budget Survey (HBS) from the Romanian National Institute of Statistics (NIS) covering the period 2004-2011. Our estimations suggest that Roma have inferior diet quality compared to the non-Roma populations. Around one-third of the diet quality gap is explained by the differences in observed socio-economic factors, whereas the remaining part of around two-thirds of the gap is attributed to unobserved factors. Further, the results suggest that the unobserved factors associated with the Roma group have large and significant effect compared to the effect on the majority Romanian population and non-Roma minorities. We argue that the large unexplained component associated with the Roma is caused by the discrimination induced inferior performance of the Roma on the labor market and in particular by their specific informal institutions.
    Keywords: Roma, food security, diet quality, informal institutions, discrimination, Consumer/Household Economics, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Security and Poverty, Health Economics and Policy, D12, I12, J15, Q18,
    Date: 2016–06–01
  18. By: Migheli, Matteo (University of Turin)
    Abstract: Access to credit and its cost is a major challenge for farmers in developing countries. Formal moneylenders often ration these economic agents, as they lack assets to give as collateral for the loans. The phenomenon is particularly diffused in the countryside, where the formal moneylenders are less present. Consequently, farmers resort to informal credit. Several studies show that land serves as collateral for accessing formal credit, but they often do not find any significant effect of land size on access to informal credit. Here I study the effects of land ownership on both the demand and the cost of informal credit in the Mekong Delta. Vietnam is an interesting country for studying this issue, as informal credit is widespread in the countryside, despite the government’s effort to eradicate it, also subsidising the formal lenders. The analysis is based on 603 households farming relatively small parcels. The results show that as land ownership increases, both the demand and the cost of informal loans decrease. This result is relevant in developing countries, where land reforms are still ongoing, as it shows that land redistribution may contribute to the development of formal credit markets. In particular, from a policy point of view, design and implementation of appropriate land redistributions appears to be a fundamental way to fight the informal credit market.
    Date: 2016–11
  19. By: Jason Garred (Department of Economics, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON)
    Abstract: Import tariffs have fallen steeply worldwide over the last several decades, but has trade policy persisted through a rise in the use of other instruments? I study this question in the context of China's 2001 accession to the World Trade Organization, using panel data on Chinese export policies. I find that after its entry into WTO, the distribution of China's export restrictions across industries increasingly resembles the inverse of its pre-WTO import tariff schedule. The evidence suggests that increases in export restrictions are likely to have partly restored China's pre-WTO pattern of industrial protection.
    JEL: F13 F14 O13 O24
    Date: 2016
  20. By: Yi Long; Chris Nyland; Russell Smyth
    Abstract: We examine how fiscal decentralisation and progress towards the development of a knowledge-intensive economy has impacted on teachers’ wages in China, utilising a panel dataset of 31 provincial administrations from 2001 to 2013. We find that fiscal decentralisation has a negative impact on teachers’ wages and this effect is further enhanced by a deepening of the knowledge intensity of the economy, while knowledge economy itself has no significant impact on teachers’ wages. The findings suggest that incentives being offered to local administrators need to be revisited if the national government is convinced of the need to increase teacher quality in ways suited to the knowledge economy China wishes to construct.
    Keywords: fiscal decentralisation, knowledge economy, teachers, wages, human capital, China
    JEL: H73 J31 J45
    Date: 2016–11
  21. By: Tomislav Globan
    Abstract: Abstract This paper introduces a new composite index – the financial supply index (FSI), which measures the level of supply of foreign capital to 11 new EU Member States (NMS). We aim to fill the gap in the literature, which has so far focused on creating indices that measure the financial conditions only, while the economic factors, also important determinants of capital flows, have been overlooked. The FSI includes both the financial and economic determinants of capital flows and is estimated using Kalman filtering, principal components and a variance-equal weights approach. Three financial supply cycles in NMS could be extracted based on the analysis of FSI dynamics. The results indicated that the main drivers of financial supply to NMS are externally determined, with economic sentiment and business climate in the eurozone carrying the highest weight. In addition, we create a new indicator – the Refinancing Risk Ratio (RRR), which relates the supply of and demand for foreign capital, to quantify the external refinancing conditions and risk faced by the government. We are able to distinguish two main episodes of high refinancing risk faced recently by the EU NMS – one during the global financial crisis, and the other during the European sovereign debt crisis, but the episodes significantly differ in nature.
    Keywords: financial cycles, financial supply, new EU Member States, capital flows, refinancing conditions
    JEL: F21 F36 H63
    Date: 2016–12
  22. By: Xiaoyu Chen; Xiaohao Ji
    Abstract: This is an empirical study on the effect of house price on stock-market participation and its depths based on unique China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) data in 2011 and 2013 including 36213 sample households. We mainly found that, with an increase of one thousand RMB per square meter in macro house price, the probability to participate in the stock market will increase by 5.4% before controlling for wealth effect and 2.84% afterwards, indicating the existence of wealth effect. The participation depths of the stock-total asset ratio is expected to decrease by 0.23% and absolute stock asset is observed to decrease by 5.8 thousand RMB in response to one thousand RMB increase of per square meter house price. The effect of house price on participation decision is also related to housing area, and the negative effect of house price on stock market participation depths gets more intense with the increase of the stock-total asset ratio.
    Date: 2016–12
  23. By: Haining Wang; Zhiming Cheng; Russell Smyth
    Abstract: We examine the health returns to proficiency in Mandarin in urban China using longitudinal data from the China Family Panel Studies. We find that greater proficiency in Mandarin improves self-reported health, mental health and capacity to perform activities of daily living. While we find that Mandarin proficiency increases incidence of chronic disease, Mandarin proficiency lagged two years is associated with reduced incidence of chronic disease. We also examine the relationship between Mandarin proficiency and health inequality and find that differences in Mandarin proficiency contribute to inequalities in health outcomes at the community level, district level and within a gender-age-education defined reference group. The decomposition results show that differences in Mandarin proficiency account for between 12 per cent and 28 per cent of health inequality, depending on the health indicator. Our results suggest that promoting ‘standard Mandarin’ can serve as a vehicle to improve health outcomes and reduce health inequality.
    Keywords: China; Mandarin proficiency; health outcomes; health inequalities; human capital
    JEL: I12 I14 I24 I26
    Date: 2016–11
  24. By: Crowley, M.; Song, H.; Meng, N.
    Abstract: We estimate how a rise in uncertainty about future tariff rates impacts firm decisions to enter into and exit from export markets. Using Chinese customs transactions between 2000-2009, we exploit time-variation in product-level trade policy and find that Chinese firms are less likely to enter new foreign markets and more likely to exit from established foreign markets when their products are subject to increased trade policy uncertainty. Our analysis is based on the phenomenon of “tariff echoing" - after a tariff hike in one country, another country is likely to raise its tariff on the same product. Overall, we find that if there had been no trade policy uncertainty created by the use of contingent tariffs, Chinese entry into foreign markets would have been roughly 2 percent higher per year. We use our model to counterfactually estimate how much entry by Chinese firms over 2001-2009 was due to future trade policy certainty provided by membership in the WTO.
    Keywords: Trade policy uncertainty, trade agreements, China shock, Chinese exporters, antidumping, information spillovers
    JEL: F12 F13 F14
    Date: 2016–12–16
  25. By: Borrs, Linda; Knauth, Florian
    Abstract: We use a large sample of German workers to analyze the effect of low-wage competition with China and Eastern Europe (the East) on the wage structure within German manufacturing industries. Utilizing the method by Abowd et al. (1999), we decompose wages into firm and worker components. We find that the rise of market access and competitiveness of the East has a substantial impact on the dispersion of the worker wage component and in part on positive assortative matching. Trade fails to explain changes in the firm wage premium. The rising dispersion in worker-specific wages can be attributed to increasing skill premia and to changes in the extensive margin of the workforce, leading to a wage polarization for the remaining within-industry workers. We also account for technological change by considering how many routine-intensive jobs are substituted within an industry. The more routine jobs are cut, the higher is the effect on wage inequality, especially on the dispersion of worker-specific wages. Overall, trade explains up to 19% of the recent increase in wage inequality and slightly exceeds the technology effect that accounts for approximately 17%.
    Keywords: wage decomposition,wage inequality,globalization,gravity
    JEL: F16 J31 O33 F14
    Date: 2016
  26. By: Adam P. Balcerzak (Nicolaus Copernicus University, Poland)
    Abstract: The main aim of the article is to assess an influence of the last global financial crisis on the level of fiscal burden in Central European countries compared to old member states of the EU. In the research the fiscal burden was treated as multidimensional phenomenon, which should be analyzed with application of multiple criteria analysis tools. In the research zero unitatization method was applied, which allowed to create synthetic measure of the fiscal burden in the EU countries in the years 2004-2015. The measure allowed to propose rankings of the countries and assess the changes of the level of the fiscal burden during and after the crisis. The research was based on the Eurostat data.
    Keywords: fiscal burden, multiple criteria analysis, zero unitarization method, synthetic measure
    JEL: E61 C38
    Date: 2016–12
  27. By: Anghel, Remus Gabriel; Botezat, Alina; Cosciug, Anatolie; Manafi, Ioana; Roman, Monica
    Abstract: Romanian migration is today one of the biggest, complex, and dynamic migration to Western Europe. This paper is a comprehensive review of the existing literature that aims at providing a full picture of this dynamic migratory process and discusses its far-reaching consequences. It first presents and characterizes the Romanian migration through the different phases during and after state socialism. The second part of the paper is dedicated to unfolding the socio-economic effects of the Romanian migration addressing the remitting behavior and its development over the past years. The issue of return migration is also addressed stressing that return is not much developed, however it has significant impacts through the emergence of returnees’ entrepreneurship. Finally we address some of the consequences of the medical doctors’ migration which is today considered one of the main migration challenges the country is facing.
    Keywords: Romania, international migration, remittances, return migration, physicians migration
    JEL: F22 F24 J15 P36
    Date: 2016–12
  28. By: Jacek Liwiński (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw)
    Abstract: Although it has been over 40 years since labour economists started testing human capital vs. signalling explanation of the wage premium from education, the debate is still going on and authors keep on proposing new methods of testing. The human capital theory postulates that investment in education enhances the productive capacity of individuals, while according to the signalling hypothesis the value of a graduation diploma follows from the fact that it signals innate abilities of its holder. We apply the approach proposed by Wiles to test for the signalling hypothesis and, in particular, to find out if there is a positive relation between education and productivity. For this purpose, we construct a job match index based on information if school provided knowledge and skills are useful at work and the job performed is relevant to the field of study. Then we check if the quality of job matching is related to wages of graduates in Poland. To answer this question, a wage equation was estimated using OLS on the basis of data from a representative, nationwide tracer survey of Poles who left secondary schools or graduated from higher education institutions over the period of 1998-2005. We find out that knowledge and skills acquired in the course of formal education bring wage benefits only to university graduates. Besides, this group receives a wage premium, which may be attributed to their high innate abilities. In sum, the outcomes are consistent with the weak signalling hypothesis, since they show that tertiary education signals a high level of innate abilities and at the same time it provides knowledge and skills which enhance individual productivity at work. However, the role of tertiary education differs significantly by fields of study – graduating from programs that provide soft skills has a positive impact on productivity, while hard-applied skills acquired in the course of university studies have a strong signalling nature. Besides, we find evidence of the strong signalling hypothesis with regard to the secondary vocational schools leavers.
    Keywords: education, human capital, signalling, job matching, wage equation
    JEL: I26 J24 J31
    Date: 2016

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