nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2016‒10‒30
twenty papers chosen by
J. David Brown
United States Census Bureau

  1. Wilhelm Von Humboldt and Berlin University: a New Look at the Origin of the Humboldt Myth By Koen Schoors; Maria Semenova; Andrey Zubanov
  2. Real Income Convergence between Central Eastern and Western Europe: Past, Present, and Prospects By Matkowski, Zbigniew; Prochniak, Mariusz; Rapacki, Ryszard
  3. A mixed methods approach for the integration of urban design and economic evaluation: industrial heritage and urban regeneration in China By Mauro Berta; Marta Bottero; Valentina Ferretti
  4. S&T Priority Setting. International Practices and the Case of Russia By Anna Grebenyuk; Sergey Shashnov; Alexander Sokolov
  5. Crisis and Agglomeration in the Hungarian Hog Sector By Csonka, Arnold; Fertő, Imre
  6. Productive specialization in Romanian farms using Moran's Index By Galluzzo, Nicola
  7. Компаративна анализа и могућности сарадње Републике Србије и Волго-Вјатског рејона Руске Федерације у области аграра By Petrović, Dragan; Bukvić, Rajko
  8. Demand for Alcohol Consumption and Implication for Mortality: Evidence from Russia By Evgeny Yakovlev
  9. Financial regulation: The G20’s missing Chinese dream By Nicolas Véron
  10. Resource misallocation and productivity in Ukrainian food industry By Ryzhenkov, Mykola
  11. Growth and structural transformation in Viet Nam during the 2000s By Dang Thi Thu Hoai; Finn Tarp; Dirk van Seventer; Ho Cong Hoa.
  12. Implementation of the eHealth Project in Latvia: Project audit perspective By Pulmanis, Emils
  13. China as a Potential Partner for Latin American Electricity Projects By Thomas Rawski
  14. Higher education expansion, economic reform and labor productivity By Yao, Yao
  15. Migration in the People’s Republic of China By Lu, Ming; Xia, Yiran
  16. Agriculture and agricultural policy in Eastern European Neighbourhood By Kožar, Maja; Pintar, Marjeta; Volk, Tina; Rednak, Miro; Rac, Ilona; Erjavec, Emil
  17. Identifying differences in capital growth trajectories of agricultural enterprises in Russia By Epstein, David; Curtiss, Jarmila
  18. Promoting change or preserving the status quo? - the consequences of dominating local politics by agricultural interests. Some evidence on structural change in Poland during the transition period. By Fałkowski, Jan
  19. Pareto's Law and City Size in China: Diverging Patterns in Land and People By Chao Li; John Gibson
  20. Linking three market models to project Russian and Ukrainian wheat markets till 2030 By Wolf, Verena; Deppermann, Andre; Tabeau, Andrzej; Banse, Martin; van Berkum, Siemen; Haß, Marlen; Havlik, Petr; Philippidis, George; Salamon, Petra; Verma, Monika

  1. By: Koen Schoors (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Maria Semenova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Andrey Zubanov (University of Wisconsin-Madison)
    Abstract: We analyse whether depositor familiarity with a bank affects depositor behaviour during a financial crisis. We measure familiarity by looking for regional or local cues in the bank’s name. We measure depositor behaviour by the their sensitivity to observable bank risk (market discipline). Using 2001–2010 bank-level and region-level data for Russia, we find that depositors of familiar banks become less sensitive to bank risk after a financial crisis relative to depositors of unfamiliar banks. To check that the results are not driven by any implicit support of banks with regional cues in their names by regional governments, but indeed by familiarity bias, we interact the variables of interest with measures of trust in local governments and regional affinity. We find that the flight to familiarity effect is strongly present in regions with strong regional affinity, while the effect is rejected in regions with more trust in regional and local governments. This indicates our results are driven by familiarity and not by any implicit protection from a trusted regional or local government
    Keywords: Market discipline, Bank, Personal deposit, Region, Russia, Flight to familiarity, Trust, Implicit guaranty, Regional authorities.
    JEL: G21 G01 P2
    Date: 2016
  2. By: Matkowski, Zbigniew; Prochniak, Mariusz; Rapacki, Ryszard
    Abstract: The paper presents an analysis of real income convergence between the 11 countries of Central Eastern Europe which have joined the European Union (EU11) and 15 countries of Western Europe (EU15) in the period 1993-2015. The evolution of the income gap between the two groups of countries in terms of GDP per capita at PPP reveals a clear-cut tendency towards income convergence over the analyzed period, confirmed also by the results of beta and sigma convergence tests. However, the catching-up process was not continuous, showing some breaks and divergence episodes. The most intensive convergence appeared in the years 2000-2007, just before and after the EU's major enlargement. This suggests that the increasing economic integration stimulated the convergence process. But the global economic crisis, along with financial perturbations in the euro area, have slowed down the convergence in most CEE countries, as reflected by changes in the income gap observed in the years 2007-2015. The paper also presents some projections of the convergence prospects, with three scenarios as to the future economic growth. The first two scenarios assume the continuation of past or current growth trends and the maintenance of positive growth rate differentials, indicating the probable length of the period needed by the individual CEE countries to attain the average GDP per capita level seen in Western Europe. The third scenario, based on a long-term economic forecast for the EU economies, warns that economic growth in the region may slow down due mainly to unfavorable demographic trends, with the resulting deceleration of the convergence process, up to its total halt or reversal into divergence. Proper social and economic policies are needed, both on the country level and in the framework of the common European policy, in order to assure a healthy economic growth in the CEE area and to maintain the convergence process within the EU.
    Keywords: economic growth,income convergence,European Union,forecasting,simulation
    JEL: C21 F15 F17 F43 F47 O52
    Date: 2016
  3. By: Mauro Berta; Marta Bottero; Valentina Ferretti
    Abstract: This paper presents the early results of a study aimed at experimenting an innovative approach to the design and the evaluation of complex urban transformation processes, based on the combined use of different design strategies and tools. The purpose of the paper is to illustrate, by means of a case study, a multi-level decision aiding process, able to support strategic urban design, with specific reference to regeneration processes for abandoned industrial sites in urban areas. The case study presented in the paper concerns different alternative proposals for the requalification of the former Shougang/Er-Tong mechanical factory in Beijing, China. The choice of a Chinese case study as a field test for an experimentation about mixed methods research approaches in the domain of urban transformation is related to the peculiar emerging conditions of that context, in which huge economic potentials are speeding up the transformation but a substantial lack of cultural and methodological instruments to manage a so fast modification exists. During the design process, three methods in particular have been combined according to a multi-phase design: (i) Stakeholders Analysis, (ii) Multicriteria Analysis, and (iii) Discounted Cash Flow Analysis. Each one of them has been applied in parallel to the evolution of the different design scenarios. The results of the performed study show that mixed methods approaches are a promising line of research in the field of environmental evaluation and urban design. Insights and guidelines for the replication of the proposed methodological approach in other territorial contexts are also proposed.
    Keywords: multicriteria analysis; urban design; decision support; masterplanning; economic evaluation
    JEL: J50
    Date: 2016–09–28
  4. By: Anna Grebenyuk (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Sergey Shashnov (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Alexander Sokolov (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The paper discusses practices of science and technology priority setting with respect to national and global challenges. General approaches to priority setting with particular focus on types of priorities, selection criteria, methodologies and formal procedures are illustrated on international experience (for Germany and the UK). Recent developments and problems to be resolved in S&T priority setting are analysed in detail for the case of Russia. The solutions suggested target ensuring practical applicability, objectivity, and transparency of priority setting procedures and results.
    Keywords: priority setting, science and technology, socio-economic challenges
    JEL: O3
    Date: 2016
  5. By: Csonka, Arnold; Fertő, Imre
    Abstract: This paper analyzes agglomeration effects and spatial externalities in Hungarian hog sector between 2000 and 2010. Previous studies concentrate primarily on North-American and Western European countries, whilst the research on the Central-Eastern European countries is non-existent. Our study is the first step to fill this gap. We develop a spatial lag – spatial error regression model to capture horizontal and vertical spillover effects, as well as environmental restrictions determining production location in Hungarian hog sector at municipality (LAU-1) level. Our estimations confirms the rationale of distinction of individual and corporate farms in empirical analysis. The pig production were affected by different factors and different ways in the two subsection. From the point of view of spatial economics it seems that this subsections constitute two different “worlds”. The “introvert world” of individual farms is very sensitive to agglomeration effects and spatial externalities. The “extrovert world” of corporate farms is more proof against agglomeration economies and spatial externalities.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Farm Management, Livestock Production/Industries,
    Date: 2016
  6. By: Galluzzo, Nicola
    Abstract: As a consequence of communism regime collapse, Romania has changed in a quickly and intense way the transformation of its socio-economic and productive fabric in order to become a new member of the European Union. The growth of Romanian Gross Domestic Product has acted on the increase of food consumption, on the implementation of agri-food sector and on the level of farmer's income even if one of the main negative bottleneck is the out migration from the countryside. Our research focuses on the evolution since 2000 to 2014 in Romanian territorial specialization aimed at estimating by a quantitative approach main nexus between growth of Gross Domestic Product and increase of agricultural production, in terms of agricultural GDP, with positive impacts on the agri-food chain. The Moran’s index has been a pivotal quantitative approach in order to estimate the spatial autocorrelation in all Romanian administrative provinces or counties between the variable Gross Domestic Product and the level of agrarian GDP and rural out migration. Findings have pointed out a dichotomy between the north and south Romanian regions as a consequence of the productive specialization, in general characterised by a high level of cropping specialization and by a poor farm size which is not able to create a consolidated agri-food supply chain.
    Keywords: Gross Domestic Product, territorial specialization, farmer income, farm size, Gross Domestic Product, Agricultural and Food Policy, Farm Management,
    Date: 2016
  7. By: Petrović, Dragan; Bukvić, Rajko
    Abstract: Serbian Abstract. У чланку се анализирају претпоставке и резултати у ратарској производњи у Волго-Вјатском рејону и у Србији. Један од дванаест економских региона Руске Федерације, Волго-Вјатски рејон налази се северно од широке зоне квалитетног чернозема у Русији, најквалитетније земље за аграр. Ипак, он и поред тога има прилично развијену пољопривреду, укључујући и ратарску производњу, док Србија спада међу водеће у аграру на Балканском полуострву. У Србији, због климатских, педолошких и неких других фактора, могућа је производња низа аграрних култура које иначе дају мање приносе у Волго-Вјатском рејону, а постоји и низ култура посебно кукуруз, воће и поврће, винова лоза, које тешко успевају или се уопште не гаје у Волго-Вјатском рејону. Стручна сарадња, али и трговинска сарадња двају ентитета може се одвијати на знатно ширем нивоу, два традиционално пријатељска народа и земље, што је и тема овог рада. English Abstract. The paper analyzes the existing conditions and current results in agricultural production in the Volga-Viatka Region and in Serbia. The Volga-Viatka Region is one of the twelve economic regions of the Russian Federation, it lies north of the vast high-quality chernozem area in Russia, covered by the highest-quality soil for farm production. However, it is characterized by quite developed agriculture, including the farm production, while the Republic of Serbia is amongst the leading farming regions in Balkan Peninsula. Due to their climatic, pedological and other factor, Serbia is suitable for the production of a number of cultures that yield less in the Volga-Viatka Region, as maiz, fruit and vegetables, vitis vinifera, and exist many cultures that can’t be produced. Professional as well as commercial and economic cooperation between the two entities can be elevated to a significantly higher level, as between the two traditionally friendly nations and countries, which is the subject of this paper.
    Keywords: Волго-Вјатски економски рејон, Република Србија, развој аграра, ратарска производња, физичко-географске предиспозиције, стручна и трговинска сарадња, Volga-Viatka economical region, Republic of Serbia, development of agriculture and processing industry, agricultural production, physical and geographical conditions, professional and commercial and economic cooperation
    JEL: O13 O57 R11
    Date: 2016
  8. By: Evgeny Yakovlev (New Economic School (NES))
    Abstract: Alcohol abuse is widely blamed for the very high rate of male mortality in Russia. I specify and estimate a simple structural model of the demand for alcohol that incorporates two key features of the Russian context. First, alcohol use – particularly incidents of heavy drinking – often involves friends and (male) family members. Second, there is strong habit persistence in alcohol use: depending on the degree of forward-looking behavior by consumers, responses to a tax policy will depend on beliefs about the future path of prices. I estimate the model using panel data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS), and two alternative sources of variation in alcohol prices: a 2011 change that shifted the trend in the rate of growth of the excise tax for alcohol, and regional variation in alcohol regulations over the 1995-2014 period. To obtain direct information on peer use of alcohol, I exploit the clustered design of the RLMS, which enables me to find close neighbors for nearly all sample members. The estimation results confirm that both peer influence and habit persistence are critical determinants of the longer-run response of alcohol demand to price changes. One third of the predicted 30% reduction in the rate of heavy drinking caused by a 50% permanent increase in vodka prices, for example, is attributed to the social multiplier effect that emerges as groups of friends jointly reduce their consumption. Finally, I use the RLMS data to relate patterns of heavy drinking to mortality. The estimates imply that permanent increases in alcohol prices would yield significant reductions in male mortality.
    Date: 2016–10
  9. By: Nicolas Véron
    Abstract: China’s recent emergence as a leading global economic and financial powerhouse has implications for all aspects of global governance. While a growing body of literature has analysed the consequences for international trade arrangements, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs), fewer studies have focused on the cluster of institutions that oversee financial regulatory standard-setting and policy development at the global level, referred to here as the global financial regulatory system. In spite of significant crisis-induced changes in the last decade, this system has not sufficiently adapted to the new reality of China’s prominence, and has remained unsustainably centred on incumbent North Atlantic financial systems. This lagging pattern is in the interest neither of the incumbents, nor of China, nor of the world as a whole. In order to move towards a better institutional balance, global financial regulatory bodies should increase the presence and prominence of Chinese participants in their governance and operations. China should correspondingly offer greater engagement, and promote institutional improvements to address some of the challenges that the global system in its current form has been unable to tackle.
    Date: 2016–10
  10. By: Ryzhenkov, Mykola
    Abstract: The paper studies resource misallocation in Ukraine’s food industry and its impact on industry’s total factor productivity during the period of 2002-2010. Applying Hsieh and Klenow (2009) framework to the dataset of 8,410 Ukrainian food producers, I found that optimal allocation of resources can potentially increase the productivity of this sector by 166-400%. The extent of misallocation in the manufacturing of food and beverages is not uniform across industries, as well as across regions of Ukraine. Results also show that in the case of optimal allocation of resources, small and medium enterprises should have a higher role in food production sector.
    Keywords: resource misallocation, food industry, total factor productivity, output distortions, capital distortions, Productivity Analysis, D24, D61, L66, O12, Q18,
    Date: 2016–09–20
  11. By: Dang Thi Thu Hoai; Finn Tarp; Dirk van Seventer; Ho Cong Hoa.
    Abstract: We study structural transformation and change in the Vietnamese economy using two Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs), one for the year 2000 and a recently compiled SAM for the year 2012. This period is of particular interest as it features an important shift in terms of more economic integration with the global economy. Several analytical approaches are taken, including comparisons and decomposition of multipliers and a decomposition of structural change. We observe significant changes in economic structure, and the results suggest that the Vietnamese economy has become internally more integrated over the period 2000–12, while moving from primary production (agriculture) towards more value adding manufacturing activities. This transformation has been broad-based and in large measure driven by external demand. We conclude that it will be challenging to sustain growth without bold moves in technological upgrading and measures geared towards even stronger internal economic integration.
    Keywords: SAM multipliers, structural change decomposition, structural transformation, Viet Nam
    Date: 2016
  12. By: Pulmanis, Emils
    Abstract: In order to improve effectiveness of provision of healthcare service, the project implemented by the Ministry of Health- ”E-health in Latvia” is a step towards the right direction. It will provide the possibility for patients to ensure a greater control over their health issues, by maintaining healthy habits, lifestyle, increase substantiation of adoption of decisions and speed of service in the healthcare industry, ensuring quality and accessible information; patients will receive more quality services and in a shorter period of time for issuance of prescription drugs. Nevertheless, the policy prepared by the Ministry of Health in the area of e-Health will not be implemented in the planned scope and the planned term; therefore the target-to improve the effectiveness of the provision of healthcare services will only be partially achieved. The project „e-Health in Latvia” is necessary and important for the society, but already from the very beginning there have been substantial deficiencies (errors) - the professionals of industry are not involved in the project, multiple changes of institutions implementing the project, ineffective project management and finally, there has not been sufficient supervision of the project. This Paper analyzes the implementation of the e-Health Project in Latvia from the audit perspective, showing th results from the performance-compliance audit carried out by the supreme audit institution – State Audit Office of the Republic of Latvia.
    Keywords: Project management, e-health, public administration, planning
    JEL: D6 D61 H43 O22
    Date: 2016–10–05
  13. By: Thomas Rawski
    Abstract: As Chinese firms ramp up participation in Latin American electricity infrastructure projects, this brief study reviews the strengths and possible shortcomings of Chinese electricity firms. Large state-controlled generation, grid and nuclear firms have made big contributions to the recent transformation of China’s power sector, which has delivered huge expansion, technological upgrading, increased reliability, universal service and many other benefits. Excess capacity throughout China’s electricity supply chain arising from an unexpected demand slowdown provides a powerful incentive to pursue international marketing opportunities. Beijing’s “go outward†campaign assures financial and policy backing for overseas investment initiatives. Potential difficulties include Chinese firms’ lack of experience with the regulatory complexity and public controversy that often surrounds Latin American infrastructure projects as well as the tendency of Chinese equipment makers to deliver products that incorporate what Chinese specialists describe as “small defects.â€
    Date: 2016–01
  14. By: Yao, Yao
    Abstract: This paper studies the impact of higher education expansion, along with economic reform of the state sector, in the late 1990’s in China on its labor productivity. I argue that in an economy such as China, where allocation distortions widely exist, an educational policy affects average labor productivity not only through its effect on human capital stock, but also through its effect on human capital allocation across sectors. Thus, its impact could be very limited if misallocation becomes more severe following the policy. I construct a two-sector general equilibrium model with private enterprises and state-owned enterprises, with policy distortions favoring the latter. Households, heterogeneous in ability, make educational choices and occupational choices in a threeperiod overlapping-generations setting. Counterintuitively, quantitative analysis shows an overall negative effect of higher education expansion on average labor productivity (by 5 percent). Though it did increase China’s skilled human capital stock significantly (by nearly 50 percent), the policy had the effect of reallocating relatively more human capital toward the less-productive state sector. This also directed physical capital allocation toward the state sector and further dampened average labor productivity. It was the economic reform that greatly improved the allocation efficiency and complemented educational policy in enhancing labor productivity (by nearly 50 percent).
    Keywords: Higher education, China, Economic reform, Educational policy,
    Date: 2016
  15. By: Lu, Ming (Asian Development Bank Institute); Xia, Yiran (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: This report summarizes the characteristics of migration in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) after its reforms and opening up. Rapid urbanization in the PRC has resulted from recent decades of intense rural–urban migration. The scale of migration increased rapidly and long-term migration is the main characteristic. The population characteristics of migration are determined not only by a personal decision, but also a joint decision within households to send members with comparative advantages in manufacturing and services, usually male and young, to work in cities. Coastal regions where manufacturing and services are better developed, especially big cities, are the major destinations. The aspiration for higher-income and better job opportunities is the major force that drives migration, while public services and urban amenities also partly account for population flows. However, in the PRC, there are still major institutional barriers—especially the hukou system and related segmentation in the urban labor market, social security, and public services access—that hinder rural–urban and interregional migration. Facing the challenges of fast urbanization and growing urban diseases, local governments still rely on the current system to control the population flow into large cities. Controlling population growth by discriminative policies will lead to more social problems. Policy makers should reconsider the way to achieve efficient and harmonious urbanization by shifting to more pro-market policies and reducing the migration costs embedded in institutional constraints.
    Keywords: migration; rural-urban migration; PRC; urbanization; hukou system; People’s Republic of China; rapid urbanization
    JEL: J61 P25 R23
    Date: 2016–10–17
  16. By: Kožar, Maja; Pintar, Marjeta; Volk, Tina; Rednak, Miro; Rac, Ilona; Erjavec, Emil
    Abstract: The paper presents the agriculture and agricultural policies of eight countries emerging from the former Soviet Union: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Moldova, Ukraine, Russia, Georgia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. These countries hold a great agricultural production potential; nevertheless, some of them are still relatively unanalysed from the point of view of agricultural policy. One of the aims was to find out whether and how policies are converging, considering recent geopolitical developments. Policy analysis was conducted qualitatively (document analysis and literature review) and quantitatively by applying the OECD PSE approach to analyse sector policy support. The quantitative analysis of the agri-food sector was based on the data collected in the framework of the AGRICISTRADE project. The key issues in the region are food security and competitiveness; policy approaches range from strong interventionism to almost complete liberalisation. Budgetary support is relatively low compared to averages for EU and OECD countries. Transfers to producers dominate in all countries, especially input subsidies and on-farm investment support, whereas the support to rural development and for general services is weak. While the prices for crops are near world prices, prices for animal products are fairly high in some countries, indicating high developmental needs. Based on the results of the analysis, it is possible to discern four rough political/economic clusters of countries: Transcaucasia countries, Russia and Kazakhstan,Ukraine and Moldova and Belarus.
    Keywords: Eastern European Neighbourhood, CIS, agriculture, agricultural policy, producer support, PSE, AGRICISTRADE, Agricultural and Food Policy,
    Date: 2016–09–20
  17. By: Epstein, David; Curtiss, Jarmila
    Abstract: The great diversity of farms with regard to production, ownership and/or corporate structure and significant initial undercapitalization characteristic for post-socialist countries can be assumed to form conditions that allowed for diverse farm development strategies. The aim of this paper is to identify significantly different farm capital growth trajectories that characterize structural development of Russian agriculture. Special attention is paid to financial performance and strategies of agriholding farms. We apply a semi-parametric group-based trajectory modelling approach on the financial statement data of agricultural enterprises from northwest Russia from 2001 to 2012. We identified five groups of farms with significantly different growth trajectories. Most representative for the analyzed region are farms with continuous close to zero capital growth, while other (smaller) groups of farms display high fixed capital growth of various levels. Most farms incorporated into holding structures, predominantly very large farms, are found to display high financial performance and secure gradual growth.
    Keywords: Financial performance, capital growth, group-based trajectory modelling, Russia, agroholdings, Agricultural and Food Policy,
    Date: 2016
  18. By: Fałkowski, Jan
    Abstract: Though there is a vibrant debate about the determinants of structural change in agricultural sector, the broad consensus is that it is mainly driven by economic environment and farmers' characteristics. In this paper, we try to complement this view and study whether the pattern of farm exits is shaped by rural politics. Using local-level data for Poland, and accounting for variables commonly used in other studies, we show that in the period 1996-2010, the scope and speed of structural change in agricultural sector were heavily influenced by the extent to which municipality councils were captured by agricultural interests. More specifically, we find that in regions with higher political representation of farmers there were less exits from farming and land consolidation process was slower. Thus, our findings suggest that investigating the distribution of political resources at the local level might be as important for our understanding of structural change as studying the impact of farm size or the development of non-agricultural job opportunities.
    Keywords: special-interest benefits, rural politics, structural change, Poland, Agricultural and Food Policy,
    Date: 2016
  19. By: Chao Li (Auckland Institute of Technology); John Gibson (University of Waikato)
    Abstract: Using Pareto’s Law as a benchmark, the very largest cities in China appear to have scope to absorb more migrants, contrary to the pro-small bias in urban policy. We use population census data from 2000 and 2010 and remote sensing data to study the evolution of the size distribution of Chinese cities in terms of land and people. Migrants without local hukou registration increasingly congregate in a few larger cities, so previous studies that rely on the count of local hukou holders wrongly make the city size distribution seem more even. Temporal comparisons show the city size distribution is diverging in terms of the urban resident population but converging in terms of land area. These divergent patterns suggest that growth in the resident population of large cities is not being assisted by fast enough area expansion, while area expansion of less populous cities is too fast for their slow growth in resident numbers.
    Keywords: agglomeration; city size; hukou; migration; Pareto’s law; China
    JEL: R12 O15
    Date: 2016–10–17
  20. By: Wolf, Verena; Deppermann, Andre; Tabeau, Andrzej; Banse, Martin; van Berkum, Siemen; Haß, Marlen; Havlik, Petr; Philippidis, George; Salamon, Petra; Verma, Monika
    Abstract: Several economic models project global agricultural market developments. In each of these models, certain relevant aspects influencing agricultural markets are underrepresented. In order to overcome this, three economic models are linked to each other, namely GLOBIOM, AGMEMOD and MAGNET. The method to link these models consists of several parts: mapping, harmonization, data transfer, scenario development and successive model runs. The developed Model Junction Linkage Tool (MOJITO) facilitates and automates these parts. In addition to a common baseline scenario, two scenarios reflecting two important factors in the future development of wheat markets in Ukraine and Russia are analyzed. While the baseline results differ widely between the models the scenarios develop in a similar fashion.
    Keywords: Economic modeling, Wheat market, Russia, Ukraine, Yield gap, Trade policies, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2016–09–20

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