nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2016‒10‒16
25 papers chosen by
J. David Brown
United States Census Bureau

  1. Do EU Funds Crowd Out Other Public Expenditures? Evidence on the Additionality Principle from the Detailed Czech Municipalities’ Data By Petr Jansky; Tomas Krehlik; Jiri Skuhrovec
  2. China’s 13th Five-Year Plan. In Pursuit of a “Moderately Prosperous Society” By Michel Aglietta; Guo Bai
  3. Analysis of the agricultural and rural development policies of the Western Balkan countries By Sabahudin Bajramovic; Natalija Bogdanov; Jakub Butkovic; Dragi Dimitrovski; Emil ERJAVEC; Grigor Gjeci; Ekrem Gjokaj; Bekim Hoxha; Ivana Janeska Stomenkovska; Darko Konjevic; Ana Kotevska; Aleksandra Martinovic; Iliriana Miftari; Marina Nacka; Dragana Ognjenovic; Miroslav Rednak; Emelj Tuna; Tina VOLK; Edvin Zhllima
  4. Россия Украина: возможности и риски By Drobot, Elena
  5. Ekonomia versus środowisko - konkurencyjność czy komplementarność By Anonymous; Wigier, Marek; Wieliczko, Barbara
  6. The interaction between trade and FDI: the CEE countries experience By Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu; Daniel Goyeau
  7. Exchange rate pass-through and cross-country spillovers: Some evidence from Ukraine and Russia By Faryna, Oleksandr
  8. Drivers of Growth in Russia By Markus Brueckner; Birgit Hansl
  9. In brief: Investing in roads By Nathaniel Baum-Snow; Loren Brandt; Vernon Henderson; Matthew Turner; Qinghua Zhang
  10. Subsidy Policies and Insurance Demand By Jing Cai; Alain de Janvry; Elisabeth Sadoulet
  11. Health inequalities regarding territorial differences in Hungary by discussing life expectancy By Uzzoli, Annamária
  12. Intellectual Property Rights Protection, Ownership, and Innovation: Evidence from China By Lily Fang; Josh Lerner; Chaopeng Wu
  13. High-speed rail in China By Yatang Lin; Yu Qin; Zhuan Xie
  14. Does the Foreign Income Shock in a Small Open Economy DSGE Model Fit Croatian Data? By Vladimir Arčabić; Tomislav Globan; Ozana Nadoveza; Lucija Rogić Dumančić; Josip Tica
  15. The skills of Polish emigrants: Evidence from PIAAC By Nicola Brandt; Patrizio Sicari
  16. Stock Return Autocorrelations and Predictability in the Chinese Stock Market: Evidence from Threshold Quantile Autoregressive Models By Wen-Jun Xue; Li-Wen Zhang
  17. The importance of spatial adjustment processes in the labour force: the case of Albania By Benassi, Federico; Boeri, Marco; Elezi, Pranvera; Zindato, Donatella
  18. Researching commuting to work using the methods of complex network analysis By Pálóczi, Gábor
  19. The European Union and China: The Need for a More Politicised Relationship By Kerry Brown and Sam Beatson
  20. Internal migration transition in Romania? By Horváth, István
  21. Linking jobs in global supply chains to demand By Kizu, Takaaki.; Kühn, Stefan.; Viegelahn, Christian.
  22. Attempts to delineate functional regions in Hungary based on commuting data By Pálóczi, Gábor; Pénzes, János; Hurbánek, Pavol; Halás, Marián; Klapka, Pavel
  23. The money demand in an open economy model with microeconomic foundations: An application to the CEE countries By Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu; Dominique Pépin
  24. The validity of Wagner’s Law in Romania during 1995-2015 By Paparas, Dimitrios; Stoian, Andreea
  25. Bureaucrats as successor CEOs By Dang, Tri Vi; He, Qing

  1. By: Petr Jansky (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic; CERGE-EI, a joint workplace of Charles University and the Economics Institute of the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Politickych veznu 7, 111 21 Prague, Czech Republic); Tomas Krehlik (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic; CERGE-EI, a joint workplace of Charles University and the Economics Institute of the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Politickych veznu 7, 111 21 Prague, Czech Republic); Jiri Skuhrovec (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic; CERGE-EI, a joint workplace of Charles University and the Economics Institute of the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Politickych veznu 7, 111 21 Prague, Czech Republic)
    Abstract: European Union funds flowing into budgets of public sector organisations of its member states should be additional to their nationally funded expenditures. To investigate this additionality principle systematically, we develop a new empirical method. Our main hypothesis is that some of the EU-funded projects are crowding out national public expenditures. Not being able to reject the hypothesis would be consistent with violating the additionality principle. To test the hypothesis we examine how EU funding translates into actual spending of relatively comparable municipalities of the Czech Republic. We innovatively match the municipal authorities’ budgetary data on EU-funded expenditure projects with their other, nationally funded, expenditures. We find no systemic crowding out of national public expenditures by EU funds at the level of operational programmes in the Czech municipalities’ data, which is consistent with no evidence of violating the additionality principle. Nonetheless, going down to the municipal level enable us to show how the results can pinpoint individual cases of EU fund’s potential mismanagement in Czech municipalities. Overall, we provide the first evaluation of the additionality principle at the level of individual recipients of EU funds and in doing so we develop a methodological approach potentially applicable to other fund recipients.
    Keywords: European Union, EU Cohesion policy; EU funds; crowding out; additionality; municipalities
    Date: 2016–09
  2. By: Michel Aglietta; Guo Bai
    Abstract: Chinese reform is an endogenous process that feeds on its own contradictions, and creates its own way through stages, interspersed by crises that are part of the reform. The Directives paper issued by the central committee of the CCP at its third plenum in November 2013 is a theoretical compendium of a strategic view of the reform. The 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020), adopted in March 2016 by the People’s National Assembly of China, is the most articulated document to date and explains the objectives and their implementation over the next five years. In order to understand the Plan, this paper focuses on six paramount objectives from this long and detailed document: shift from capital accumulation-led growth to innovation-led growth; integrated urban-rural development; green development; inclusive development; finance and State-owned Enterprise-(SOE) reform; opening up to the world. The process of reform is acknowledged to be under way. The paper analyzes the objectives identified and their content and it highlights their interdependencies to underline the comprehensive “new normal” strategy. Quantitative targets: • Bottom line: 6.5% annual average growth GDP from 2016 to 2020 to double 2010 GDP per capita. • R&D expenditure: 2.5% GDP in 2020 from 2.1% in 2015. • Urbanization rate: 60% of population in 2020 from 56.1% in 2015. • Green development: by 2020 to reduce emissions per unit of GDP by 40, to 45% compared to 2005 levels. Increase the share of non-fossil fuel energy to 15% by 2020. • Social welfare: lift 55.75 million more people out of poverty by 2020. One-child limit increased to two children per couple. Extend coverage of urban welfare services to all residents. • Financial targets: merge 106 SOEs under central government ownership into 40 world-class groups in strategic industries. Achieve full Yuan convertibility by 2020.
    Keywords: Innovation-led growth;green development;State-owned enterprises (SOEs);debt cleaning
    JEL: O11 O53 P11
    Date: 2016–09
  3. By: Sabahudin Bajramovic (University of Sarajevo); Natalija Bogdanov (University of Belgrade); Jakub Butkovic (Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Relation of Bosnia and Herzegovina); Dragi Dimitrovski (Faculty of Agricultural Sciences and Food – Skopje); Emil ERJAVEC (University of Ljubljana); Grigor Gjeci (Albanian Ministry of Agriculture); Ekrem Gjokaj (Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Rural Development, Kosovo); Bekim Hoxha (Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Rural Development, Kosovo); Ivana Janeska Stomenkovska (Faculty of Agricultural Sciences and Food – Skopje); Darko Konjevic (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Directorate Rural Development, Podgorica, Montenegro); Ana Kotevska (Faculty of Agricultural Sciences and Food – Skopje); Aleksandra Martinovic (University of Donja Gorica); Iliriana Miftari (University of Pristine); Marina Nacka (Faculty of Agricultural Sciences and Food – Skopje); Dragana Ognjenovic (University of Sarajevo); Miroslav Rednak (Agriculture Institute of Slovenia); Emelj Tuna; Tina VOLK (Agriculture Institute of Slovenia); Edvin Zhllima (Agriculture University of Tirana)
    Abstract: This report was prepared by a team of academic experts from Western Balkan (WB) countries coordinated by the Regional Rural Development Standing Working Group (SWG) in South-East Europe. The study targets EU candidate and potential candidate countries from the Western Balkan region (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Kosovo*). The main objectives of the study is the monitoring and evaluation of agricultural policies in the period 2012-2014 and assessment of the related key EU integration issues of the region. The study also outlines policy recommendation relevant in the wider regional context of the agricultural sector development as well as with respect to the region's EU integration process. The study results reveal that no major shifts in production and farm structure took place in the region in the study period, however, some expansion of WB agricultural trade, which are mainly a result of stronger exports, are reported. All study countries have prepared and most have also adopted a new strategic framework for the future of agricultural policies with more elaborated focus on EU harmonisation process. However, there were not observed pronounced changes in the actual structure and the volume of budgetary transfers related to agricultural policies in the region in the study period 2013-2015. Compared with the support granted under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in EU, the total budgetary support in WBs is still relatively low. Direct payments linked to specific production sectors (coupled support) are the main type of agricultural support implemented in WB countries. The type of direct payments and supported sectors are under constant adjustment. However, the policy instruments' alignment of WB countries to CAP-like policy is limited. As a general rule, agricultural budgets are not development-oriented. The institutional limitations in the implementation of the IPARD pre-accession support, the lack of clear action plans for policy reforms and the absence of the evidence based policy approach to policy-making are a few areas constraining a better design and implementation of agricultural policies in WB and for which policy recommendations and future tasks are outlined in this study
    Keywords: Agricultural policy, Western Balkans, Rural development, EU integration, pre-accession support, Monitoring and evaluation
    JEL: Q17 Q18
    Date: 2016–07
  4. By: Drobot, Elena
    Abstract: The article discusses the features of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the threats and risks of the two countries. Particular attention is paid to the history of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The author analyzes the social and economic development of Russia and Ukraine from 2012 to 2016. A separate section is devoted to the study of Russian and Ukrainian foreign trade relations. SWOT-analysis of problems and prospects of development of relations between Ukraine and Russia is carried out in the last part of the work.
    Keywords: conflict, risk, opportunities, threats, economic development, foreign trade
    JEL: F4 F51
    Date: 2016–10–06
  5. By: Anonymous; Wigier, Marek; Wieliczko, Barbara
    Abstract: Sovereignty, Food Security and Sustainable Development: Environmental and Economic Challenges. Environmental consulting as a factor of agricultural development in Serbia. The CAP 2004-2013 direct payment scheme’s impact on sustainability of agriculture in Lithuania. Economic and social preconditions of development in the Czech rural areas: acceleration of global influence and local changes. Impact of economics and agriculture over the environmental protection in Bulgaria. An assessment of the impacts of reducing ammonia emissions from livestock farming by covering existing manure storage facilities in Hungary. Animal and vegetable waste development in agriculture, food processing and households of the European Union. Resilience of Romanian agriculture – an overview. Priorities of sustainable development of agriculture and rural areas within the region of eastern Serbia. Expected changes of farmers innovation activity in 2014-2020. Investment attractiveness of bioeconomy: case of Ukraine. Competitiveness and comparative advantages of Ukraine’s agriculture sector in trade with the European Union. Ukrainian agricultural products competitiveness on European market in time of financial challenges.
    Keywords: sovereignty, food security, sustainable development, environmental, economic challenges, agricultural development, direct payment, sustainability of agriculture, economic preconditions, social preconditions, rural areas, ammonia emissions, livestock farming, food processing, European Union, Romanian agriculture, sustainable development, farmers innovation activity, investment attractiveness, bioeconomy, competitiveness, agriculture sector, trade, agricultural products, European market, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Production Economics, Productivity Analysis,
    Date: 2016
  6. By: Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu (UPT - Politehnica University of Timisoara - Politehnica University of Timisoara); Daniel Goyeau (CRIEF - Centre de Recherche sur l'Intégration Economique et Financière - Université de Poitiers)
    Abstract: Inside the EU, the commercial integration of the CEE countries has gained remarkable momentum before the crisis appearance, but it has slightly slowed down afterwards. Consequently, the interest in identifying the factors supporting the commercial integration process is high. Recent findings in the new trade theory suggest that FDI influence the trade intensity but the studies approaching this relationship for the CEE countries present mixed evidence, and investigate the commercial integration of CEE countries with the old EU members. Against this background, the purpose of this paper is to assess the CEE countries' intra-integration, focusing on the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and the Slovak Republic. For each country we employ a panel gravitational model for the bilateral trade and FDI, considering its interactions with the other three countries in the sample on the one hand, and with the three EU main commercial partners on the other hand. We investigate different facets of the trade – FDI nexus, resorting to a fixed effects model, a random effects model, as well as to an instrumental variable estimator, over the period 2000-2013. Our results suggest that outward FDI sustains the CEE countries' commercial integration, while inward FDI has no significant effect. In all the cases a complementarity effect between trade and FDI is documented, which is stronger for the CEE countries' historical trade partners. Consequently, these findings show that CEE countries' policymakers are interested in encouraging the outward FDI toward their neighbour countries in order to increase the commercial integration.
    Keywords: FDI,trade,complementarity,substitution,panel models
    Date: 2016–09–07
  7. By: Faryna, Oleksandr
    Abstract: ​This paper studies exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices in Ukraine and Russia considering cross-country linkage and spillover effects. We relax the assumption of “isolated islands” and employ a bilateral panel VAR (BPVAR) approach to estimate a pass-through effect from the ruble to hryvnia exchange rate (UAH/RUB) movements, taking into account cross-unit hetero-geneities as well as dynamic and static interdependencies. We then compare BPVAR estimates with those from individual VAR models and find that, while results for Russia do not change significantly, spillover effects are identified for Ukraine. In particular, ruble depreciation (e.g. hryvnia appreciation) results in increasing Ukrainian prices instead of declining as suggested by individual VAR analysis. We also estimate alternative BPVAR including hryvnia and ruble ex-change rates with respect to the US dollar and find that prices in Ukraine respond to changes in USD/RUB to a larger extent than to UAH/USD.
    Keywords: exchange rate pass-through, Ukraine, Russia, spillovers, bilateral panel VAR
    JEL: E31 E52 E58
    Date: 2016–10–06
  8. By: Markus Brueckner; Birgit Hansl
    Abstract: Between the end of the 1990s and the first decade of the 2000s Russia experienced significant growth in GDP per capita that was driven by transitional convergence, structural reforms, and improvements in the terms of trade. Reforms to the structure of the economy boosted growth by over 2 percentage points per annum with improvements in telecommunication infrastructure, financial development, and a reduction in the GDP share of government consumption being the most important structural reforms. The paper discusses Russia's growth performance relative to comparator countries: countries in the European and Central Asia regions, advanced natural resource exporting countries and the BRICS countries. Economic growth was significantly lifted in advanced natural resource exporting countries due to the international commodity price boom, for example, in Russia improvements in the terms of trade lifted growth by over 1 percentage point per annum. In the group of advanced natural resource exporting countries and BRICS countries, Russia is at the forefront in terms of growth benefits arising from structural reforms.
    Date: 2016–07
  9. By: Nathaniel Baum-Snow; Loren Brandt; Vernon Henderson; Matthew Turner; Qinghua Zhang
    Abstract: Between 1990 and 2010, China constructed an extensive modern road network, including a national system of limited access highways. Vernon Henderson and colleagues investigate the impact on the growth of Chinese cities and regions.
    Keywords: construction, China, Ricardian trade models, primate cities
    JEL: F10 N65
    Date: 2016–10
  10. By: Jing Cai; Alain de Janvry; Elisabeth Sadoulet
    Abstract: Many new products presumed to be privately beneficial to the poor have a high price elasticity of demand and ultimately zero take-up rate at market price. This has led governments and donors to provide subsidies to increase take-up, with the concern of trying to limit their cost. In this study, we use data from a two-year field experiment in rural China to define the optimum subsidy scheme that can insure a given take-up for a new weather insurance for rice producers. We build a model that includes the forces that are known to be determinants of insurance demand, provide reduced form confirmation of their importance, validate the dynamic model with out-of-sample predictions, and use it to conduct policy simulations. Results show that the optimum current subsidy necessary to achieve a desired take-up rate depends on both past subsidy levels and past payout rates, implying that subsidy levels should vary locally year-to-year.
    JEL: D12 D83 G22 H20 O12 Q12
    Date: 2016–09
  11. By: Uzzoli, Annamária
    Abstract: Since the middle of the 1990s, Hungary has seen substantial increases in life expectancy. Despite this improvement, many health outcomes remain poor, placing Hungary among the countries in the European Union with worse health status. Based on the general state of health of the population, Hungary belongs with the middle-ground countries of the world. Majority of the health indicators are worse than the average of OECD’s values, and this is especially true regarding the mortality rate of the middle-aged male population. The main objective of the study is to investigate health inequalities with regional differences in Hungary. It is still worth explaining how health inequalities and inequities have changed in terms of space and time after the Hungarian economic and political transition. The territorial range of the study includes the national and regional levels (NUTS3) with the micro-regional level (LAU1). The statistical analysis is based on the use of life expectancy in addition to some mortality indicators. Data for 1990–2014 were examined to define health effects of the Hungarian transition as well as the consequences of the latest economic crisis. Improvements in health along with growth of regional inequalities were found in Hungary since the second half of the 1990s. Larger relative inequalities were observed between Western and Eastern Hungary based on its higher and lower income. Gender differences are also significant in life expectancy. Poor health among the unemployed people was detected, which is a socio-economic effect of the latest economic crisis. In Hungary, income-related health inequalities persist; however, their degree has changed in space and time over the last 25 years. For a comprehensive description of health in Hungary, assessment of the poor health of lower income social groups and the regional level of health inequalities is needed.
    Keywords: health inequalities, health transition, regional differences, Hungary
    JEL: I14 I15 R10 R11 R13
    Date: 2016–10
  12. By: Lily Fang; Josh Lerner; Chaopeng Wu
    Abstract: Using a difference-in-difference approach, we study how intellectual property right (IPR) protection affects innovation in China in the years around the privatizations of state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Innovation increases after SOE privatizations, and this increase is larger in cities with strong IPR protection. Our results support theoretical arguments that IPR protection strengthens firms’ incentives to innovate and that private sector firms are more sensitive to IPR protection than SOEs.
    JEL: G24 J33 L26
    Date: 2016–09
  13. By: Yatang Lin; Yu Qin; Zhuan Xie
    Abstract: Encouraging innovation is a perennial policy goal - and one common approach is to promote the adoption of foreign technology. Yatang Lin and colleagues examine the impact of China's technology transfer policy, which has not only built a huge national high-speed railway system but has also made the country a global leader in the industry.
    Keywords: Innovation, Foreign Technology Transfer, Knowledge Spillover, China
    JEL: O25 O33 O38
    Date: 2016–10
  14. By: Vladimir Arčabić (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb); Tomislav Globan (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb); Ozana Nadoveza (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb); Lucija Rogić Dumančić (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb); Josip Tica (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb)
    Abstract: The paper compares theoretical impulse response functions from a DSGE model for a small open economy with an empirical VAR model estimated for the Croatian economy. The theoretical model fits the data well as long as monetary policy is modelled as a fixed exchange rate regime. The paper considers only a foreign output gap shock. A positive foreign shock increases domestic GDP and prices and decreases terms of trade, which is in compliance with theoretical assumptions. Interest rates behave differently than suggested by the estimated DSGE model, which could be explained with an unconventional interest rate transmission channel in Croatia.
    Keywords: DSGE, foreign income shocks, exchange rate, Croatia, gross domestic product, Eurozone
    JEL: E32 F41
    Date: 2016–09–21
  15. By: Nicola Brandt; Patrizio Sicari
    Abstract: Based on the OECD data from the Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) this paper sheds light on the skills of migrants. In line with earlier research the data show that migrants from Poland are more likely to have a tertiary degree than peers at home, but they often work in elementary professions abroad that do not match these high qualifications. This may well be at least partly a language issue, as migrants from Poland resemble migrants from other low-income countries in that their numeracy and literacy skills in the language of their host country is markedly lower than the average across all PIAAC participants, migrants or not. This gap is smaller, though, when looking only at migrants who report having been tested in a language that they use often and master well. The data reveal an interesting difference with migrants from higher-income countries, as their test results do not differ from the average, although they face the same language issues as other migrants. The reason may well be that only migrants from low-income countries can hope to earn higher wages abroad even if they work in low-skill professions, while migrants from higher-income countries need to master the language of their host country to do well. In fact, Polish migrants earn higher wages than their peers who stayed at home, even though they are particularly often overqualified. Les compétences des émigrants polonais : résultats de l'enquête PIAAC Sur la base des données de l’Évaluation des compétences des adultes (PIAAC) ce papier illustre les compétences des migrants. Conforme à des recherches antérieurs, les données montrent que les migrants de la Pologne ont plus souvent un diplôme de l’enseignement supérieure que leurs pairs qui sont restés dans leur pays, mais souvent ils travaillent dans des professions élémentaires qui ne requièrent pas un tel niveau de qualifications. Ceci pourrait être dû, pour le moins en partie, à des problèmes linguistiques, dans la mesure où les migrants polonais ont, dans les langues des pays d’accueil, des compétences en littératie et numératie qui sont bien plus basses que pour la moyenne de tous les participants au test PIAAC, migrants ou non, ce qui les rapproches des migrants d’autres pays à bas revenus. Cependant, cette différence est plus petite quand on considère uniquement les migrants qui affirment avoir été testé dans une langue qu’ils utilisent souvent et qu’ils maitrisent bien. Les données révèlent une différence intéressante avec les migrants des pays à hauts revenus, dont les résultats dans les tests de littératie et numératie ne sont pas différents de la moyenne, même s’ils sont confrontés aux mêmes difficultés de langage que d’autres migrants. Ceci pourrait être dû au fait que seul les migrants des pays à bas revenus peuvent espérer de gagner mieux à l’étranger que dans leur pays, même s’ils travaillent dans des professions peu qualifiés, alors que les migrants des pays à haut revenus doivent maîtriser la langue de leur pays d’accueil pour avoir un meilleur niveau de vie que dans leur pays d’origine. Au fait, les migrants polonais gagnent des salaires plus élevés que leurs pairs qui sont restés en Pologne, même s’ils sont souvent surqualifiés.
    Keywords: migration, skills
    JEL: F22 F24
    Date: 2016–10–11
  16. By: Wen-Jun Xue (Department of Economics, Florida International University); Li-Wen Zhang (School of Economics, Shanghai University, China)
    Abstract: This paper applies the threshold quantile autoregressive model to study stock return autocorrelations and predictability in the Chinese stock market from 2005 to 2014. The results show that the Shanghai A-share stock index has significant negative autocorrelations in the lower regime and has significant positive autocorrelations in the higher regime. It attributes that Chinese investors overreact and underreact in two different states. These results are similar when we employ individual stocks. Besides, we investigate stock return autocorrelations by different stock characteristics, including liquidity, volatility, market to book ratio and investor sentiment. The results show autocorrelations are significantly large in the middle and higher regimes of market to book ratio and volatility. Psychological biases can result into return autocorrelations by using investor sentiment proxy since autocorrelations are significantly larger in the middle and higher regime of investor sentiment. The empirical results show that predictability exists in the Chinese stock market.
    Keywords: Stock return autocorrelations, Predictability, Chinese stock market, Threshold quantile autoregressive model
    JEL: C23 G12 G14
    Date: 2016–10
  17. By: Benassi, Federico; Boeri, Marco; Elezi, Pranvera; Zindato, Donatella
    Abstract: Using census data on work commuting in Albania – collected for the first time in 2011 – this study examines the spatial adjustment processes between demand and supply of labour across the country. The first part focuses on the spatial adjustment of labour forces that occur within and between Albanian’s prefectures. Several statistical indicators, derived using origin-destination matrices, measure the differential levels of attraction and expulsion of each prefecture. Results show a high level of heterogeneity and emphasise the crucial role of spatial contiguity among prefectures on this spatial dynamic. The second part examines the role of the municipality of Tirana. This is first investigated within a three-territorial-units system (the municipality of Tirana, rest of the prefecture and rest of Albania) and then within the prefecture as a closed system. Interestingly, 71.5% of all the commuting flows directed to the Municipality originate from municipalities located very close to Tirana (less than 10 km). We conclude that the spatial structure of the prefecture, reasonably extendable to the whole country, can be defined as monocentric. Further studies should focus on the implied costs of this system to the society and environment of Albania.
    Keywords: work commuting, census data, territorial imbalances, spatial adjustments, Albania
    JEL: N3 R11 R12 R14
    Date: 2016–10
  18. By: Pálóczi, Gábor
    Abstract: In the current paper the possible utilization of complex network analysis in spatial researches was investigated. The organizational and developmental regularities of networks were demonstrated from the aspect of regional development planning. The reviewed regularities provide a new approach of the regional developments. The dependencies of settlements were analysed with the application of disparity method on the basis of the commuting matrix of the census from 2011. The disparity of out-commuting exceeded the level of in-commuting in all population categories, producing a more significant dependency relation in case of out-commuting. In general, the value of disparity increases with decreasing population number in settlements and dependency grows. This can be related with decrease in the level of degree and commuting distance. According to detailed results, the method of disparity might be effectively used in additional spatial analyses as well. The community detection procedures of the complex network analysis were also applied for spatial division. Modularity optimization with the Louvain method was successfully used in the delimitation of larger territorial units. Smaller units can be created by the increase of the resolution but modularity stability deteriorates. At the same time the composition of the units changes. In the light of the results, it could be stated that regions formed by commuting relations (according to the process of regionalism) did not match the Hungarian NUTS2 statistical regions, but natural borders and NUTS-3 level administrative boundaries could be detected in more cases. The differences between the results and NUTS-3 boundaries are not unique distortions caused by the methodology but these reflect real commuting relations (the local labour system units were discussed in a previous study). The methodology might be appropriate to detect the hierarchical order of the local labour system’s units. The method is adaptable for additional analysis of spatial interactions.
    Keywords: network analysis, commuting, disparity, dependency, regionalization, community detection
    JEL: R00 R10 R11 R12
    Date: 2016–10–10
  19. By: Kerry Brown and Sam Beatson
    Abstract: China and the European Union (EU) in 2016 have one of the largest economic relationships to the world, with a network of strategic dialogues covering areas from environment to agriculture. Despite this, their relationship is a hard one to encapsulate. President Xi Jinping's idea of a ‘civilisational’ partnership seem abstract, but at least opens up the possibility of the EU conceptualizing its relationship with China as not solely transactional, but something more political. This paper argues that conferring Market Economy Status on China will be a key issue in marking this transition between the EU seeing its link with China solely in economic terms, and looking for a stronger political dimension. The conclusion is that both sides can no longer pretend they are simply trade blocks interacting with each other.
    Date: 2016–10–10
  20. By: Horváth, István
    Abstract: This paper is an overview of the shifts in the internal migration patterns in Romania for the last six decades. In the first part a literature-based brief overview of the trends and patterns of internal migration during communism will be presented. In the second (more extensive) part, a statistical-data based analysis of the internal migration trends and patterns over the last 25 years will be provided.
    Keywords: Romania, internal migration, international migration, communism, market-transition, regional differences, demography
    JEL: R10 R11 R12
    Date: 2016–10
  21. By: Kizu, Takaaki.; Kühn, Stefan.; Viegelahn, Christian.
    Abstract: In its recent World Employment and Social Outlook, the ILO published estimates of the number of jobs related to global supply chains (GSCs) for 40 countries in 1995–2013. This paper provides a detailed description of the methodology that was used for the estimation and documents the links between GSC-related jobs and demand. The paper shows evidence on the number of jobs supported by demand in different export destinations and analyzes the number of GSC-related jobs in different country groups. In particular, we find evidence for the changing role of China, from a country in which GSC-related jobs are located to a country whose import demand creates these jobs elsewhere. We also show that production linkages between emerging economies create an increasing number of jobs. When focusing on jobs related to manufacturing GSCs, trends in GSC-related jobs reveal the increasing importance of the services sector. Finally, we conduct a sectoral regression analysis and provide evidence that increased GSC participation of a sector as a supplier can be associated with a drop in the wage share. We show that this result holds regardless of whether advanced or emerging economies are the final export destination, where demand originates.
    Keywords: value chains, employment, wages, productivity, location of industry, labour statistics, statistical method, statistical analysis
    Date: 2016
  22. By: Pálóczi, Gábor; Pénzes, János; Hurbánek, Pavol; Halás, Marián; Klapka, Pavel
    Abstract: The issue of defining functional regions in Hungary is presented in this paper, which contains detailed methodological description with the help of relevant studies from the Czech Republic and Slovakia. The use of Smart’s measure together with the CURDS algorithm and the relatively new concept of trade-off constraint function with four different sets of parameter values provided four optional solutions for this issue, based on the analysis of daily travel-to-work flows from the 2011 census. The resulting regions correspond to the micro-regional level and give valuable additions to the discussion about regionalization. The paper provides basic descriptive statistics for each of the four variants of functional region systems, which enables their overall evaluation (seeing advantages and disadvantages) and mutual comparison (seeing similarities and differences), and thus facilitates an informed debate on future work in functional regionalisation in Hungary carried out with respect to different purposes.
    Keywords: functional regions, commuting, census data, Hungary
    JEL: R00 R10 R11 R12 R52
    Date: 2016–10–10
  23. By: Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu (UPT - Politehnica University of Timisoara - Politehnica University of Timisoara); Dominique Pépin (CRIEF - Centre de Recherche sur l'Intégration Economique et Financière - Université de Poitiers)
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to investigate the degree of currency substitution between the currencies of CEE countries and the euro. As a novelty, we develop a model with microeconomic foundations, which underlines the difference between the currency substitution and the money demand sensitivity to exchange rate variations. More precisely, we posit that the currency substitution is related to themoney demand sensitivity to the interest rate spread between the CEE countries and the euro area. In addition, we showthat the existence of a channel throughout the exchange rate has implications on the money demand, even in the absence of a currency substitution effect. This model can be successfully applied to countries where an international currency offers liquidity services to the domestic agent, and where afterwards it is parameterized in order to empirically test the long-run money demand based on two complementary cointegration equations. The opportunity cost of holding the money, as well as the scale variable represented by household consumption or output, explain the long-run money demand in CEE countries. Our results are robust regarding the use of DOLS or FMOLS estimators, andregarding the employment of the broad and the narrow money for computing the money demand.
    Keywords: CEE countries ,cointegration,open economy model,currency substitution,money demand
    Date: 2016–07–20
  24. By: Paparas, Dimitrios; Stoian, Andreea
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between government expenditure and economic growth commonly known as Wagner’s law for one single Central and Eastern European country namely Romania. Using a dataset ranging from 1995 to 2015, we apply latest econometric time series techniques such as unit root test, Johansen cointegration and Granger causality test. The cointegration tests indicate support for Wagner’s hypothesis in all of its five versions, thus suggesting the existence of long-run relationship between government spending and national outcome. The causality tests show the absence of any short-run relationship from economic outcome to government expenditure in three out of five versions. However, taking into consideration that in its original formulation Wagner’s law explored the secular correlation between output and government commitments, we can state that the long run cointegration is more consistent with Adolph Wagner’s perspective.
    Keywords: Wagner’s Law; government expenditure; economic growth; time series; Romania
    JEL: C21 H5
    Date: 2016–09
  25. By: Dang, Tri Vi; He, Qing
    Abstract: Chinese companies sometimes appoint a government official (bureaucrat) as CEO on the expectation of benefiting from the political connections of the new hire. Based on a sample of 2,454 CEO transitions our empirical findings are consistent with the implications of a simple contract model in oligopolistic markets. Firms that appoint a bureaucrat as CEO obtain more credit and subsidies. They have positive abnormal announcement returns, negative abnormal long-run returns and larger variance of long-run returns. Furthermore, they experience a deterioration in operating performances, increased rent-seeking behavior of the management and weakening of corporate governance. The results from the split share structure reform in 2005 corroborate the supportive findings for the preferential treatment hypothesis.
    Keywords: bureaucrat, corporate political connections, CEO successions in China, governance
    JEL: G32 G34 M13
    Date: 2016–09–28

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