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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Sean Miner (Peterson Institute for International Economics) |
| Abstract: | China's economy is at a pivotal moment, as it faces both imminent and long-term challenges that may significantly hamper the robust growth it has enjoyed in recent decades. Income inequality, increased debt, an aging population, shrinking labor force, and a slow transition from manufacturing to services risk threatening the country's social and economic stability. China's continued economic growth is an essential part of the Chinese Dream, President Xi Jinping's vision for the reemergence of China's prominence on the global stage. China once championed laying low and biding its time while it built its strength, but that time has clearly passed. The road to a "prosperous and strong country," as President Xi has said of the Chinese Dream, will likely be a road filled with hurdles. In this volume of essays PIIE experts explore various areas of concern for China's economic development. The authors use historical or data-driven analysis to explain what is happening, why it is important for China, and then provide recommendations for policymakers in China and elsewhere. |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:piiebs:piieb16-5&r=tra |
| By: | Phan, Diep (Beloit College); Coxhead, Ian (University of Wisconsin) |
| Abstract: | We examine remittance behavior of rural-urban migrants in Vietnam using a unique data set that links the 2012 round of the Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey (VHLSS) with a 2013 tracer study of migrants from VHLSS households. We estimate factors associated with remittances, taking migrant selection issues into account. We also estimate impacts of net remittances on per capita income in migrant-sending rural households, taking into account the endogeneity of remittances. We find that migration and remittances increase the incomes of rural households. However, the estimated direct income effects are small, and become smaller still as migrants become more established in their new place of residence. Members of ethnic minority groups gain far less than others from migration and remittances. More data and research are needed to broaden these assessments to include non-economic benefits and costs of migration. |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:wisagr:581&r=tra |
| By: | Paul J.J. Welfens (Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW)) |
| Abstract: | The adjustment processes in the context of EU enlargement are analysed and it is shown that institutional changes and economic adjustment dynamics differ across countries. EU eastern enlargement has generated some convergence effects. After a transition period there was considerable westward migration. Changes and sectoral output composition of Eastern Europe is partially related to the value-added chains of western EU companies. Until 2015 membership in the Eurozone has been completed by smaller accession countries only. Poland as the biggest economy of Eastern Europe still has no plans for a membership soon. EU eastern enlargement lags a consistent complementary EU neighbourhood policy. At the bottom line EU-eastern enlargement reinforces necessary EU reforms. |
| Keywords: | Internationale Wirtschaftsordnung und Integration, Europa |
| JEL: | F02 N14 O52 |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bwu:eiiwdp:disbei216&r=tra |
| By: | Iwasaki, Ichiro |
| Abstract: | In this paper, using a unique dataset of industrial firms obtained from enterprise surveys conducted across the Russian Federation in 2005 and 2009, we trace back structural changes in the corporate governance system before and after the global financial crisis. We also empirically examine the impacts of the crisis on the organization of boards of directors and audit systems. Our survey results reveal that, in the Russian industrial sector, the quality of corporate governance has been improved through the crisis. Furthermore, we found that, corresponding to the alignment hypothesis, in firms that decisively reformed their management and supervisory bodies in response to the 2008 financial shock, the total number of worker representative directors significantly declined, as did their proportion to all board members. On the other hand, we also found that, in firms that substantially reorganized their audit system to cope with the crisis, the independence of the audit system was undermined remarkably, corresponding to the expropriation hypothesis. Findings that management behaviors predicted by the two conflicting hypotheses are simultaneously detected—and that their targets are significantly different—deserve special mention. |
| Keywords: | global financial crisis, the evolution of corporate governance, alignment versus expropriation, Russia |
| JEL: | D22 G01 G34 M42 P34 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hitcei:2016-7&r=tra |
| By: | Jacek Liwiński (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw) |
| Abstract: | Tertiary education has been perceived in Poland as a key determinant of success in the labour market, as clearly shown by the increase of the net enrolment ratio in tertiary education from 9.8% in 1990 up to 40.9% in 2009. However, as tertiary education becomes more and more popular, it does not signal skills as well as before. It seems that employers may treat students' participation in international exchange programs as a new signaling tool since according to them international students’ skills – both cognitive and non-cognitive – are well above the average. On the other hand, students participating in exchange programs underline a positive impact of studying abroad on their personal development, i.e. on their general skills. Thus, from a theoretical point of view we may expect a positive correlation between studying abroad and wages, which follows from both signaling theory and human capital theory. On the average, 16% of European students report a positive impact of participation in Erasmus exchange program on their incomes, but interestingly, those from the CEE countries, including Polish students, report it much more often. The aim of this paper is to determine whether studying abroad for at least one semester has an impact on wages of higher education graduates in Poland. To answer this question, an extended Mincer wage equation was estimated using OLS on the basis of data from the nationwide tracer survey of Polish graduates conducted in 2007 (Graduate Tracer Study 2007). The hourly net wage rate in the first job after graduating from a higher education institution was the dependent variable in the wage equation. In order to reduce the selection bias, a number of variables were included in the model to reflect students’ abilities and skills, as well as their previous international experience. The results of the analysis show that Polish students who completed at least one semester of studies abroad, enjoy a wage premium of 28% in their first workplace after graduation. Interestingly, this wage premium is particularly high in case of graduates with low abilities and skills and – consequently – of a low social and economic status. This may indicate that studying abroad contributes to a reduction of social inequality. |
| Keywords: | investment in human capital, studying abroad, international exchange programs, wage premium, wage equation |
| JEL: | I29 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:war:wpaper:2016-25&r=tra |
| By: | Wladimir Andreff (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | An overall comparative study of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) from BRIC countries and strategies conducted by multinational companies (MNCs) based in the BRICs is elaborated on with a same methodology for Brazil, Russia, India and China. The comparison pertains to the historical emergence of firms' internationalisation, their booming expansion in the 2000s then their muddling through the current crisis, the specificities of OFDI from each home country, OFDI geographical distribution and industrial structure, econometric testing of the respective determinants of Brazilian, Russian, Indian and Chinese OFDI, and the role of home countries' governments vis-à-vis home-based MNCs. Beyond some common characteristics, BRICs' MNCs exhibit a number of major country-specific features. |
| Keywords: | multinational companies, BRICs,Outward foreign direct investment |
| Date: | 2016–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-01342391&r=tra |
| By: | Ruxanda Berlinschi |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effects of work experience abroad on political opinions using survey data from Moldova, a former soviet republic caught in an ideological battle between Russia and the West, with high emigration rates to both destinations. Contrarily to studies conducted in Africa or Latin America, we find no effect of past migration on democratic participation or on critical governance assessment. Likewise, no effect is found on domestic policy preferences. The one dimension strongly associated with migration experience is geopolitical preference, whereby return migrants from former Soviet countries are more likely to support closer ties with Russia, while return migrants from Western countries show higher support for EU integration, controlling for economic, demographic and ethnic confounding factors. For identification, we instrument individual migration with district level migrant networks. IV regressions show that only work experience in Western countries affects geopolitical preferences. |
| Keywords: | return migration, political opinions, Moldova, survey data. |
| JEL: | P3 J61 D72 D83 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lic:licosd:38316&r=tra |
| By: | Stepantsov, Pavel (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | This work addresses causes and factors of social mobility in contemporary Russia. As one of key determinants of social mobility the role of spatial migration is stressed. Further its impact on social capital, increasing welfare and life chances of Russian population is analised. Basing on the results obtained groups of potential mobility are figured out. |
| Keywords: | mobility, social capital, migration, life chances |
| Date: | 2016–05–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:3057&r=tra |
| By: | Bartha, Zoltán; Szita Tóthné, Klára |
| Abstract: | This study aims to provide a comparative analysis of socioeconomic development in Slovakia and Hungary. For this purpose, we use the State of the Future Index (SOFI) to measure and forecast the socioeconomic well-being of both the countries from 1995 to 2015. The SOFI methodology has many characteristics that are in line with the 2009 Stiglitz–Sen–Fitoussi report. We find that during 1995–1999, Slovakia had a higher overall SOFI total, signifying a higher level of well-being; subsequently, however, Hungary pulled ahead between 1999 and 2005, after which Slovakia overtook Hungary yet again. Our predictions suggest that Slovakia will continue to pull ahead in the 2015–2025 period. The areas where Hungary has scope for considerable improvement are life expectancy, GDP per capita, renewable energy resources and CO2 emission and government debt. In some areas, both countries perform poorly: level of corruption and demographic trend. However, Hungary seems to have an advantage in R&D expenditure, unemployment level and voter turnout. |
| Keywords: | development path, Hungary, State of the Future Index, Slovakia |
| JEL: | R00 R10 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:73942&r=tra |
| By: | Molnár, Ernő; Lengyel, István Máté |
| Abstract: | Labour-intensive industries have declined in the East Central European economy after the beginning of the millennium. Given this deterioration, significant employers are vanishing from rural areas, leaving behind serious employment problems in regions which are less capable of resilient restructuring. This article examines this shrinkage from a geographical aspect in the context of the Hungarian leather and footwear industry. This study focuses on the interpretation and explanation of the spatial differentiation that accompanies this shrinking process. The aim of this paper is to reveal the influencing factors that stand in the background of spatially uneven development. The analysis – embedded in the theoretical framework of global production networks – is based on the corporate database of the Hungarian Central Statistical Office and invokes the experience of interviews carried out with representatives of industrial actors as well. In addition to an understanding of spatial processes, the intention of the authors was to investigate the issues to be addressed in certain locations and under what conditions the long-standing industrial culture related to the sector can be preserved. |
| Keywords: | global production networks, labour-intensive industries, leather and footwear industry |
| JEL: | R00 R10 R11 R19 |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:73944&r=tra |
| By: | Kaiji Chen; Patrick Higgins; Daniel F. Waggoner; Tao Zha |
| Abstract: | China monetary policy, as well as its transmission, is yet to be understood by researchers and policymakers. In the spirit of Taylor (1993, 2000), we develop a tractable framework that approximates practical monetary policy of China. The framework, grounded in relevant institutional elements, allows us to quantify the policy effects on output and prices. We find strong evidence that monetary policy is designed to support real GDP growth mandated by the central government while resisting inflation pressures and that contributions of monetary policy shocks to the GDP fluctuation are asymmetric across different states of the economy. These findings highlight the role of M2 growth as a primary instrument and the bank lending channel to investment as a key transmission mechanism for monetary policy. Our analysis sheds light on institutional constraints on a gradual transition from M2 growth to the nominal policy interest rate as a primary instrument for monetary policy. |
| JEL: | C13 C3 E02 E5 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22650&r=tra |
| By: | Richard Harris (Durham Business School); Shengyu Li (Durham Business School) |
| Abstract: | The provision of large-scale assistance to industry is very important in China. The major contribution of this paper is to use Chinese firm-level panel data for 1998-2007 to introduce measures of assistance received by each firm directly into industry-level production functions determining firm output. Our results indicate inverted U-shaped gains from assistance: across the 26 industries considered, firms receiving assistance rates of 1-10%, 10-19%, 20-49% and 50+% experienced on average 4.5%, 9.4%, 9.2% and -3% gains in TFP, respectively. We also provide a simple agency model that justifies such a result |
| Keywords: | Subsidies; TFP; China; firm-level |
| JEL: | D24 O14 O43 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dur:cegapw:2016_04&r=tra |
| By: | Egri, Zoltán; Tánczos, Tamás |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the special features that characterise the spatial structure of Central and Eastern Europe, a region still in the phase of transformation. This topic has already been discussed by numerous authors (Gorzelak 1997, Rechnitzer et al. 2008); the corresponding studies have identified both greater and lesser developed areas, as well as other intermediate areas, leading to various ‘geodesigns’, figures, and models. First, a brief description of the main studies of spatial structure affecting the macroregion is given; then our definition of the spatial structure of Central and Eastern Europe is outlined. This is not only based on the main traditional development indicators (e.g. GDP per capita, unemployment rate, and business density), but also considers the spatial structure layers (economy, society, concentration, settlement pattern, network, and innovation). |
| Keywords: | Central and Eastern Europe, spatial layers, spatial structure, spatial autocorrelation |
| JEL: | R00 R10 R11 |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:73937&r=tra |
| By: | Yu Zheng (City University of Hong Kong); Raul Santaeulalia (Washington University St. Louis) |
| Abstract: | Growth entails taking risks. This implies that the welfare gains of growth hinge on the ability of households to insure consumption against the risks associated with growth. We exploit a novel and unique opportunity to study this question using as laboratory an economy, China, that has witnessed enormous and sustained economic growth and for which we build a long panel of household-level consumption and income. We find that consumption insurance deteriorates along the growth process with a transmission of permanent income shocks to consumption that triples from 1989 to 2009. The loss of consumption insurance has implications for the welfare assessment of growth across time and space. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed016:826&r=tra |
| By: | Jaan Masso; Priit Vahter |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates knowledge spillovers through labour mobility from multinational enterprises (MNEs) to domestic firms. Despite the recent increased interest in this particular channel of MNE spillovers, there is a need to understand how such effects of managerial labour mobility from MNEs function in more detail. Based on employer-employee level data from Estonia, we find that higher firm and individual-level performance associated with hiring MNE-experienced managers and top specialists especially tends to reflect the export experience of these employees. A channel for how these spillovers function appears to be the increase in the propensity to export by domestic firms. The contribution of external international experience is especially strong in the first stages of the internationalisation of a firm and for entry into nearby markets. There is no evidence of the effects of MNE experience on the intensity of exports. |
| Keywords: | multinational enterprise, knowledge spillovers, export entry, labour mobility |
| JEL: | F10 F23 J62 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtk:febawb:99&r=tra |
| By: | Konchyn, Vadym |
| Abstract: | The article is devoted to the content of the principle of comparative advantage in the country's production system and foreign trade and its key role in the early stages of implementation of the Agreement on Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area between Ukraine and the European Union. The assessment methodology of commodity and sectoral revealed comparative advantage of the country's foreign trade in relationship with factors of natural comparative advantage in production is presented. The structural analysis of Ukraine’s foreign trade with the world and extra with the EU-28 is conducted, including estimation of trade openness degree of commodity production sectors, FDI and also Ukraine’s commodity and sectoral revealed comparative advantages /their absence. The main indicators of Ukrainian commodity production by sector (economic activity) are calculated. The data set of parameters and characteristics of commodity production by sectors and the results of foreign trade are constructed. The statistic relationships between Ukraine’s commodity production indicators and foreign trade results for world and extra for the EU-28 are found. The degree of optimum for trade model between Ukraine and the EU at the start of implementation of the Agreement on free trade area is estimated. Proposals to strengthen the commodity production and trade relations optimality for Ukraine with EU are given. |
| Keywords: | deep and comprehensive free trade area between Ukraine and the EU, the principle of comparative advantage, revealed comparative advantage, the natural comparative advantage, RCA-index, international specialization, sectors of commodity production, productivity, labor unit costs, capital intensity, the optimal model of foreign trade |
| JEL: | F11 F14 F15 P33 |
| Date: | 2016–05–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:73798&r=tra |
| By: | Santaeulàlia-Llopis, Raül ; Zheng, Yu |
| Abstract: | Without data on individual consumption, inequality across individuals is almost invariably inferred by applying adult equivalence scales to household-level consumption data. To assess whether these household-based measures are effective, we exploit a rare opportunity in which individual food consumption data for each and all household members are available. We use a large sample of eight waves of the China Health and Nutrition Survey 1991-2011 that cover roughly 4,000 households and 11,000 individuals per wave. We find that adult-equivalent consumption misses 40% of the total cross-sectional individual inequality. The missing inequality is largely driven by the “vices" (i.e. alcohol, tobacco, coffee and tea) and by the core food consumption of young children. Our results suggest caution in the use of adult-equivalent scales to measure inequality, whose effectiveness depends on the items in the consumption basket and the presence of young children. |
| Keywords: | Consumption, Inequality, Adult Equivalence, Scales, Individual Data |
| JEL: | D12 E21 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eui:euiwps:eco2016/12&r=tra |
| By: | Jens K. Perret (Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW)) |
| Abstract: | At the core of every national innovation system two concepts are of central importance: The generation and the diffusion of innovations and ergo knowledge; on the one hand inside the system itself and on the other across the system's borders. The present study picks up on the aspect of knowledge generation in the context of the Russian Federation. An extended knowledge production function is estimated on the basis of Russian regional data and it is shown that the Russian NIS, nationally as well as internationally, is functional, however, not all channels of knowledge transfer work as efficiently as those in comparable Western European countries. |
| Keywords: | Knowledge Production Function, Russian Federation, National Innovation System, Panel Econometrics, Regional Economics, Patent Data |
| JEL: | O31 R11 R15 P25 |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bwu:eiiwdp:disbei217&r=tra |
| By: | VU, Tien Manh |
| Abstract: | We examined the gender gap between wives and husbands with regard to time spent on unpaid housework using interaction terms between the appearance of home appliances and gender among 36,480 Vietnamese households. We found the gender gap is persistent regardless of the number of co-residing children, age cohorts, household size and income, and working status of the couples. In household fixed-effect estimations, the gender gap of time increased with the appearance of home appliances such as gas cookers. One of the main reasons is the reduction in the probability of men participating in housework tasks related to home appliances. |
| Keywords: | home appliances, gender gap, housework, time use, housework division, home appliances, gender gap, housework, time use, housework division, D13, J16, J22 |
| Date: | 2016–09–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agi:wpaper:00000115&r=tra |
| By: | Matúš Senaj; Zuzana Siebertová; Norbert Švarda; Jana Valachyová |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a microeconometric analysis of labour force participation elasticities in Slovakia. Using a fully parametric framework, a probability model for participation in labour force is estimated. Our results show that low-skilled and females are the groups that are particularly responsive to changes in income taxes and transfers. We perform a microsimulation analysis of two counterfactual scenarios of abolition of the flat tax regime. We find out that recent departure from the flat-tax system in Slovakia reduces the average probability of being economically active by 0.1 percentage points. The same average effect is found in the hypothetical scenario simulating a departure from the flat-tax system by reintroducing five tax brackets. However, we show that the impact of the two scenarios on selected subgroups of population is different. |
| Date: | 2016–09–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cel:dpaper:41&r=tra |
| By: | Jan Hagemejer (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw; Economic Institute, National Bank of Poland) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the determinants of value added and productivity growth of New Member States in the period between 1995 and 2009. We show that in the analyzed countries exports contributed to between 30 to over 40% of the overall growth of GDP while the contribution of the domestic component varied from negative to over 60%. We show that in the most important export manufacturing industries of the NMS, the growth in exported value added was substantial, while the growth of the domestic component of GDP was mostly due to the growth in services. We associate growth of sectoral productivity with the foreign direct investment and exporting but, more importantly, with the position of a sector/country in the global value chains. We show that sectors that have imported intermediate goods have experienced higher productivity growth. Moreover, productivity growth was found in sectors further away from the final demand and in sectors exporting intermediate goods. |
| Keywords: | global value chains, productivity, economic growth, openness |
| JEL: | C23 F21 O33 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:war:wpaper:2016-24&r=tra |
| By: | Generalova Svetlana Vladimirovna (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration- Stolypin Volga Region Institute of administration) |
| Abstract: | The article reveals the essence and purpose of the diversification of agricultural production in the conditions of import substitution. Settle the causes that gave rise to the need to deepen the process of diversification of agricultural production to meet the requirements of import substitution in Russia. |
| Keywords: | diversification, import substitution, agricultural products |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:g9166&r=tra |
| By: | Даниелян, Владимир |
| Abstract: | The paper reviews literature on retirement with focus on retirement age determinants. We consider eighteen such determinants including individual characteristics of a worker, family factors, pension system features and socio-economic determinants. We explore, describe and compare findings of both theoretical and empirical works to reveal some stylized facts of older person’s retirement behavior as well as presented in the literature explanations of those facts. By doing that we find existing in the literature discrepancies and sum up considered results to put forward some proposals for future research. Next we try to look how some considered factors impact on Russian workforce and compare it with situation in other countries, using obtained in review information as a background. Предлагается аналитический обзор исследований, посвященных вопросу о том, какие факторы определяют возраст ухода работников с рынка труда. Рассмотрены восемнадцать различных детерминант, включая индивидуальные характеристики работника, семейные факторы, параметры пенсионной системы, социально-экономические характеристики страны. В каждом случае описываются и сопоставляются результаты как теоретических, так и эмпирических работ. Такой подход позволил выявить имеющиеся в литературе разногласия и сформулировать вопросы, подлежащие дальнейшему изучению. В свете полученных выводов представлен сравнительный анализ факторов, влияющих на возраст прекращения трудовой деятельности в России и за рубежом. |
| Keywords: | детерминанты пенсионного возраста, экономическая активность пожилых, неявный налог пенсионной системы, тестирование нуждаемости, продолжительность жизни, НТП, культурные особенности, retirement age determinants, labor force participation of the older workers, social security implicit tax, income test, life expectancy, technical change, cultural characteristics. |
| JEL: | H31 H55 J14 J22 J26 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:73865&r=tra |
| By: | Pénzes, János; Molnár, Ernő; Pálóczi, Gábor |
| Abstract: | The current research puts the issue of functional urban regions (or districts) into the focus delimited by the commuting network of employees. The local labour system (LLS) provided a specific dimension of this complex approach however it is one of the most adequate possibilities to delineate these areas of commuting. The delimitation process consisted of two steps with the separation of employment centres and with the assignment of settlements to these cores. The alteration of the LLS pattern was also analysed as the investigation was carried out by the census data from 2001 and 2011. The results provided a comprehensive overview about the process of territorial concentration and the instability of peripheral areas. Significant regional disparities of commuting came to light as the consequence of the body of settlement network. The territorial division of the country provided by LLS pattern is fitting to the new and integrated European approach of cities and their hinterlands but it is not alternative against other administrative or statistical divisions of Hungary. However this territorial point of view is in closer relation to the issues of analysing the local labour market processes or the developments targeting the increase in employment. |
| Keywords: | employment, functional urban area, commuting, LLS, settlement network |
| JEL: | R00 R11 R19 R41 |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:73938&r=tra |
| By: | Hui Jin; Isabel Rial |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we argue that there is much room for China to strengthen its regulatory framework for public-private partnerships (PPPs). We show that infrastructure projects carried out through local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) were largely unregulated PPPs, and significant fiscal risks have already manifested themselves. While PPPs can potentially provide efficiency gains, they can also be used by governments to circumvent budgetary borrowing constraints. Therefore, effective PPP regulation is key to delivering PPPs’ benefits while containing their potential fiscal risks. The authorities have taken concrete steps in order to establish a sound regulatory framework and foster a new generation of PPPs. However, to make the framework effective, we highlight a few issues to be resolved. Based on international best practice, we propose a four-pillar regulatory framework for China, which could be implemented gradually in three stages. |
| Date: | 2016–09–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:16/187&r=tra |
| By: | Generalova Svetlana Vladimirovna (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration- Stolypin Volga Region Institute of administration) |
| Abstract: | The paper discusses the process of iversification of livestock production in the Saratov region. It also discusses the essence of the main types of diversification. The main directions of diversification of the livestock production in the region. It is concluded that the introduction of the proposed areas will contribute to the diversification of import substitution production of livestock in the regional food market. |
| Keywords: | diversification, types of diversification, livestock industry, regional food market, import substitution, saratov region |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:g9161&r=tra |
| By: | Kincses, Áron |
| Abstract: | Foreign nationals have had a significantly positive influence on the regional socioeconomic developments of Hungary. Two realignments took place between the last two censuses: at first, the composition of citizenship changed; then, the local redistribution changed partly because of the different structure of citizenship. Fields of interests and research: Regional science, regional geography, regional and urban development, regional analysing methods, social- and economic geography network-analysis, applied mathematics and the application of physical science models in geography. |
| Keywords: | international migration, census, dual citizenship |
| JEL: | F22 J61 O15 R00 R10 R23 |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:73941&r=tra |
| By: | Juan Carlos Cuestas (University of Sheffield) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to shed some light on the degree of fiscal debt sustainability for a group of Central and Eastern European countries. We apply a battery of time series econometrics methods to show how the financial crisis has affected the debt-to-GDP ratio and how it has behaved recently. The results provide us with important insights into the way governments in Central and Eastern Europe have reacted to debt accumulation. We distinguish two groups of countries; one group where the sovereign debt stock stabilises after the crisis, and another group where debt has been accumulated more quickly in recent years. The results provide important policy lessons for the authorities responsible. |
| Keywords: | debt, Central and Eastern Europe, structural breaks, European integration |
| JEL: | C22 F15 |
| Date: | 2016–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aee:wpaper:1610&r=tra |
| By: | Fan Li; Prashant Loyalka; Hongmei Yi; Yaojiang Shi; Natalie Johnson; Scott Rozelle |
| Abstract: | The goal of this paper is describe and analyze the relationship between ability tracking and student social capital, in the context of poor students in developing countries. Drawing on the results from a longitudinal study among 1,436 poor students across 132 schools in rural China, we find a significant lack of interpersonal trust and confidence in public institutions among poor rural young adults. We also find that there is a strong correlation between ability tracking during junior high school and levels of social capital. The disparities might serve to further widen the gap between the relatively privileged students who are staying in school and the less privileged students who are dropping out of school. This result suggests that making high school accessible to more students would improve social capital in the general population. |
| Keywords: | Ability Tracking, Social Capital, Interpersonal Trust, Confidence in Public Institutions, Rural Secondary Schooling |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lic:licosd:37916&r=tra |
| By: | Olivier Damette (BETA - Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, LEF - Laboratoire d'Economie Forestière - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - AgroParisTech); Mathilde Maurel (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International - FERDI); Michael A. Stemmer (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Consequences from the subsiding 2008 financial crisis on long-run economic growth are widely debated. Existing literature on previous recessions, such as Cerra and Saxena (2008), emphasizes the long-term loss inflicted on per capita GDP levels. This paper concentrates on typical business cycles in advanced European and transition countries and assumes that lower than normal growth during recessions is followed by a recovery period with above normal growth until the economy reaches its pre-crisis level. The objective is to assess the capacity to rebound, the speed of convergence towards a normal growth path as well as potential nonlinearities. Through exploiting the cointegration relationships among variables in long-run growth regressions and by employing a variety of panel error-correction models, results show a strong evidence of error-correction and different linear speed in the convergence process with the transition economies outpacing Western European countries. Our analysis is further extended into a Panel Smooth Transition Error-Correction Model (PSTR-ECM) to account for different regimes in convergence patterns according to a selection of transition variables. Whereas the velocity of convergence for European core countries exhibits a nonlinear pattern and differs with respect to price and flexibility, transition countries remain linear in their return to the growth trend. Ultimately, our results suggest that internal adjustments remain the key factors for both European and transition countries to recover from negative economic growth shocks. |
| Keywords: | smooth-transition models,Economic growth,business cycles,transition economies,error-correction models,panel cointegration |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01318131&r=tra |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. |
| Abstract: | Azerbaijan built large buffers and invested heavily during the oil boom years, but efforts to diversify the economy have lagged. The authorities have taken steps to adjust to slumping oil prices and weaker growth in trading partner countries. In 2015, the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) undertook two devaluations and switched to a managed float. Inflation rose while the large current account surplus evaporated and the budget moved to a deficit. Financial sector soundness deteriorated. Monetary policy has been tightened to address inflation and support the currency. The non-oil primary balanced improved in 2015, but is being reversed in 2016 with a revised budget that boosts capital and current spending. The largest bank is being restructured via a bad bank-special purpose vehicle (SPV) model, some smaller banks have been closed or intervened, and a new integrated financial supervisory agency has been created. |
| Keywords: | Article IV consultation reports;Economic growth;Fiscal policy;Fiscal consolidation;Monetary policy;Banking sector;Bank restructuring;Economic indicators;Balance of payments statistics;Debt sustainability analysis;Staff Reports;Press releases;Azerbaijan; |
| Date: | 2016–09–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/296&r=tra |