nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2016‒09‒18
39 papers chosen by
J. David Brown
United States Census Bureau

  1. The impact of loan financing on SME’s from transitional countries By Jens Hoelscher; Peter Howard-Jones; Allan Webster
  2. Economic impacts of natural gas flow disruptions between Russia and the EU By Oosterhaven, Jan; Bouwmeester, Maaike
  3. The Usage of Complex Strategic Planning, Management, Implementation of the Strategy, the Cluster Approach and Innovation as a Means to Improve the Effectiveness of Regional Development [On the Example of the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan Regions] By Kalenjyan, S.; Solntsev, V.I.; Vardapetyan, V.V.; Gumilevskaya, Olga
  4. Some Approaches to Ranking in Higher Education By Barinova, V.A.; Eremkin, V.A.; Zemtsov, Stepan
  5. Urbanization, Inequality, and Poverty in the People’s Republic of China By Zhang, Yuan
  6. Republic of Slovenia; Technical Assistance Report-Contingency Planning and Crisis Management By International Monetary Fund.
  7. International Experience in Assessing the Long-Term Budgetary Impact of Programs at the Federal, Regional and Municipal Level By Belev, Sergei; Mamedov, Arseniy; Moguchev, Nikita Sergeevich; Tischenko, Tatiana Vladimirovna
  8. Evaluation of Risks, Threats and Challenges of Migration Policy in the Context of Long-Term Mass Presence on the Territory of Russian Refugees from Neighboring Countries By Malakhov, Vladimir Sergeevich
  9. Testing the Predictability of Consumption Growth: Evidence from China By Liping Gao; Hyeongwoo Kim
  10. Are Seminars on Export Promotion Effective? Evidence from a randomized controlled trial By Yu Ri KIM; TODO Yasuyuki; SHIMAMOTO Daichi; Petr MATOUS
  11. The Gross Domestic Product. History, relevance and limitations in its interpretation By Georgescu, George
  12. China’s Belt and Road initiative: can Europe expect trade gains? By Alicia García-Herrero; Jianwei Xu
  13. Guidelines for the Development and Evaluation of the Effectiveness and Efficiency of Public Programs at the Regional Level By Yuzhakov, Vladimir Nikolaevich; Dobrolyubova, Elena; Klochkova, E.N.
  14. Protectionism through exporting: subsidies with export share requirements in China By Fabrice Defever; Alejandro Riaño
  15. Did EU accession improve efficiency of firms from transitional countries? By Jenifer Piesse; Dragana Radicic; Allan Webster
  16. Mechanisms of State Regulation of the Use of Agricultural Land for Construction Purposes: International and Russian Experience By Shagaida, Natalia
  17. Granting Market Economy Status to China in the EU: An Economic Impact Assessment By Cecilia Bellora; Sébastien Jean
  18. Stock market and economic growth in Eastern Europ By María A. Prats; Beatriz Sandoval
  19. Legal Problems of the Effectiveness of Public Authorities in the Conditions of Modern Economic Development of the Russian Federation By Boldyreva, Elena; Kuznetsova, S.D.; Levakin, Igor Vyacheslavovich; Chepunov, O.I.; Chepus, A.V.
  20. Up or down the value chain? The comparative analysis of the GVC position of the economies of the new EU member states By Jan Hagemejer
  21. How do Farmers interact with Input Suppliers: Some Evidence from the Dairy Sector in Poland By Malak-Rawlikowska, Agata; Milczarek-Andrzejewska, Dominika
  22. Economic Benefits, Costs and Risks for Russia on Trade and Economic Alliances with Countries of CIS, Europe and the USA Contact By Knobel, Alexander; Kazaryan, Margarita; Kuznetsov, D.E.; Sedalishchev, V.V.; Firanchuk, Alexander
  23. Social Benefits, Job Security and Corruption: What 'Fine' State Employees By Zhuravleva, T.L.
  24. Rebalancing in China—Progress and Prospects By Longmei Zhang
  25. Analysis of the Mechanisms of Formation and Activities of the EU and the EAEC Interstate Educational Spaces By Krasnova, Gulnara; Polushkina, Elena
  26. Prospects for Renewable Energy Development in Russia and the World By Barinova, V.A.; Laitner, Skip; Lashina, T.A.
  27. Mind the employment gap: an impact evaluation of the Czech “multi-speed” parental benefit reform By Alzbeta Mullerova
  28. Republic of Serbia; Fourth and Fifth Reviews Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Rephasing of the Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Serbia By International Monetary Fund.
  29. Comparative Analysis of the Effectiveness of Individual Instruments of State Investment Policy By Mamedov, Arseny; Hudko, Hudko; Belev, Sergei; Moguchev, Nikita Sergeevich
  30. Willingness to Pay for Clean Air: Evidence from the air purifier markets in China By ITO Koichiro; ZHANG Shuang
  31. Краснодарска покрајина и Република Србија: могућности и перспективе сарадње By Bukvić, Rajko
  32. Bosnia and Herzegovina; Request for Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bosnia and Herzegovina By International Monetary Fund.
  33. The More Children You Have the More Likely You Are to Smoke? Evidence from Vietnam By Mohamed Arouri; Adel Ben Youssef; Cuong Nguyen-Viet
  34. Analysis of Joint Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Import Duty Rates in the Russian Economy By Idrisov, Georgy; Ponomarev, Yury; Pleskachev, Yury Andreevich
  35. Spillovers of the ECB's non-standard monetary policy into CESEE economies By Alessio Ciarlone; Andrea Colabella
  36. Rentseeking Behavior in Systems with a Complex Structure By Levin, Mark; Shilova, Nadezhda V.
  37. The Development of the Oil Sector of the Russian Economy: Main Trends and Public Policy By Bobylev, Yuri; Rasenko, O.A.
  38. Public Debt and Private Firm Funding: Evidence from Chinese Cities By Yi Huang; Marco Pagano; Ugo Panizza
  39. Prospects of Development of the Industry of 'Islamic' Finance in the Russian Federation. Main Obstackless and Suggestions to Overcome Them By Danilov, Yury A.; Yandiev, Magomet

  1. By: Jens Hoelscher (Bournemouth University, Executive Business Centre); Peter Howard-Jones (Bournemouth University, Executive Business Centre); Allan Webster (Bournemouth University, Executive Business Centre)
    Abstract: This study considers the impact of finance (loans) on the performance and productive efficiency of a sample of 8037 SMEs from transitional countries. An extensive macro-economic literature supports the importance of finance to growth. For this to be truly convincing it is necessary to show that firm performance is strengthened by loans. There are very few firm level studies of the linking loans and firm performance. This study extends the firm level literature using the 2013 BEEPS survey .It uses three different methodologies, all incorporating firm heterogeneity. Firstly, we use propensity score matching to test whether loans result in enhanced performance and finds that loans did indeed improve performance. Secondly, we re-enforce these conclusions using inverse probability weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) analysis. Finally we employ a stochastic frontier approach to (a) measure firm inefficiency and (b) to show that loans create a statistically significant reduction in this inefficiency.
    Keywords: SMEs; finance; transition; efficiency
    JEL: L25 G21 P27
    Date: 2016–07
  2. By: Oosterhaven, Jan; Bouwmeester, Maaike (Groningen University)
    Abstract: In this paper we use a non-linear programming approach to predict the wider interregional and interindustry impacts of natural gas flow disruptions. In the short run, economic actors attempt to continue their business-as-usual and follow established trade patters as closely as possible. In the model this is modelled by minimizing the information gain between the original pattern of economic transactions and the situation in which natural gas flows are disrupted. We analyze four scenarios that simulate Russian export stops of natural gas by means of a model calibrated on an international input-output table with six sectors and six regions. The simulations show that at the lower levels of aggregation considerable effects are found. At the aggregate level of the whole economy, however, the impacts of the four scenarios are negligible for Europe and only a little less so for Russia itself. Interestingly, the effects on the size of the economy, as measured by its GDP, are predominantly positive for the various European regions, but negative for Russia. The effects on the welfare of the populations involved, however, as measured by the size of domestic final demand, have an opposite sign; with predominantly negligible but negative effects for European regions, and very small positive effects for the Russian population.
    Date: 2016
  3. By: Kalenjyan, S. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Solntsev, V.I. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Vardapetyan, V.V. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Gumilevskaya, Olga (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The description of the approaches to the formation of the complex methods and tools for designing strategic plans for the cluster and innovation development of the regions to improve the efficiency of regional development programs in accordance with the system of multi-level priorities. Proposed methodology for assessing the quality and level of innovation and cluster development of regions on the basis of studying the experience of the individual regions of Russia and Kazakhstan. The results can be used to improve the work of regional and federal levels of strategic planning in the Russian Federation.
    Keywords: cluster development, innovation development, Russia, Kazakhstan
    Date: 2016–06–28
  4. By: Barinova, V.A. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Eremkin, V.A. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Zemtsov, Stepan (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: In this paper we analyze the main approaches to ranking in higher education, considered foreign experience ranking of universities and educational programs. The analysis of the Russian rankings in the education system and are assessing their applicability. Conclusions on the results of a comparative analysis of Russian and international ratings.
    Keywords: higher education, ranking
    Date: 2016–06–28
  5. By: Zhang, Yuan (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: Relying on the present literature, official statistics, and household survey data in the People’s Republic of China (PRC), this paper summarizes research findings on the relationship between urbanization, urban–rural inequality, and poverty, and provides further empirical evidence on the role of urbanization and government policies in urban poverty. Several conclusions can be drawn from this paper. First, urbanization has a significant effect on reducing both poverty of rural residents and poverty of migrating peasants, and, consequently, has a positive effect on narrowing the rural–urban income/consumption gap. Urban labor markets play an important role in this effect. Second, urbanization is positively correlated to urban poverty. This can be explained by the competition between migrating peasants and urban workers in the labor market, and the failure of the government’s anti-poverty policies in urban areas. Third, the existence of an informal sector has a negative effect on the poverty of urban citizens. Being employed by the informal sector significantly increases the probability of falling into poverty for urban citizens. Fourth, the minimum wage has a positive effect on reducing urban poverty, while the effect of other policies, such as Di Bao and Minimum Living Standard, is limited.
    Keywords: Inequality; poverty; urban; rural; labor market; urbanization; PRC; migration; households; peasants; workers; minimum wage; living standard; income; government policy; income gap
    JEL: D63 I32 J42 R23
    Date: 2016–09–13
  6. By: International Monetary Fund.
    Abstract: Prior to this mission, two Monetary and Capital Markets (MCM) Department IMF missions visited Ljubljana during December 15–19, 2014 and July 9–20, 2015 to assist the Slovenian authorities in introducing an effective framework for contingency planning and crisis management (CPCM), including bank resolution and deposit guarantee. As a result of the 2014 mission, two follow-up missions were planned on: (i) bank resolution and deposit insurance; and (ii) CPCM. This report documents the findings of the second follow-up mission. It should be read in conjunction with the reports of the previous two missions—information that was shared in the previous reports is not repeated in this report.
    Keywords: Banking sector;Financial crisis;Bank resolution;Deposit insurance;Risk management;Technical Assistance Reports;Slovenia;
    Date: 2016–09–07
  7. By: Belev, Sergei (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA); Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Mamedov, Arseniy (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA); Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Moguchev, Nikita Sergeevich (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Tischenko, Tatiana Vladimirovna (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: This paper presents a comparative analysis of international practices assessment of budget programs. The first section contains a brief description of international experience in the implementation of elements of the Performance-based budgeting. In the five following sections analyze practices of some countries on the most significant areas of the budget process, including approaches to the use of macro-economic forecast scenarios to determine the main parameters of the budget; approaches to the integration of strategic documents and budget planning at the level of the central government; coordination of long-term programs implemented by agencies of the same level of authority and coordination of their activities; coordinating mechanisms between departments / agencies of the central government and regional level in planning and implementing long-term programs; and organizational and administrative documents of executive bodies to assess the effectiveness of long-term budgetary programs.
    Keywords: assessment, budget programs, long-term budgetary impact
    Date: 2016–05–18
  8. By: Malakhov, Vladimir Sergeevich (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The paper evaluates the possibilities of modern Russian migration policy at stages of occurrence, distribution, settlement and integration of refugees. The authors examine the economic, demographic, legal, political and socio-cultural aspects of the problem of refugees in the context of a comparison of the European administrative experience and Russian practices. The study analyzes the peculiarities of asylum procedure in Russia and identifies the main opportunities and risks associated with the influx of refugees from Ukraine.
    Keywords: refugees, refugee status, asylum, Ukrainian refugees, stateless persons, integration of refugees, international migrations
    Date: 2016–06–16
  9. By: Liping Gao; Hyeongwoo Kim
    Abstract: Using time series macroeconomic data, Chow (1985, 2010, 2011) reported indirect empirical evidence that implies the validity of the permanent income hypothesis in China. We revisit this issue by evaluating direct measures of the predictability of consumption growth in China during the post-economic reform regime (1978-2009). We also implement and report similar analysis for the postwar US data for comparison. Our in-sample analysis provides strong evidence against the PIH for both countries. Out-of-sample forecast exercises show that consumption changes are highly predictable, which sharply contrasts the implications of empirical findings by Chow (1985, 2010, 2011).
    Keywords: Permanent Income Hypothesis; Consumption; Out-of-Sample Forecast; Diebold-Mariano-West Statistic
    JEL: E21 E27
    Date: 2016–09
  10. By: Yu Ri KIM; TODO Yasuyuki; SHIMAMOTO Daichi; Petr MATOUS
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impacts of informational and motivational seminars on export promotion targeting small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the traditional apparel and textile clusters in Vietnam. To control for biases due to self-selection, we conducted a randomized controlled trial and invited randomly selected firms to participate in one-day seminars. Because only some of the invited firms participated in the seminars, we employ an instrumental variable approach in which dummies for random invitation are used as instruments for quantifying participation. We find that the seminars had no significant effect on most firms' preparation for, perception of, or engagement in exporting activity. However, the seminars encouraged large firms and firms with prior export experience, which possibly embody higher productivity and absorptive capacity, to (re-)start exporting. Our results suggest that productivity improvement is an effective means to encourage underdeveloped firms to export, whereas provision of information is effective for productive firms.
    Date: 2016–08
  11. By: Georgescu, George
    Abstract: Despite theoretical and methodological improvements by national accounts framework revisions, not without disputes and confrontations of views, the growing complexity of economic and social phenomena under globalization circumstances has led to increasing difficulties in the design, monitoring and implementation of specific policies depending on GDP indicator. The paper focuses on the analysis of the GDP relevance and limitations in its interpretation, including a retrospective view. Some inconsistencies as regards the metrics of GDP (illegal activities, unobserved economy, self-consumption in rural households, owner’s imputed rents) are highlighted. Because the GDP does not take into account the impact of important factors of progress (depletion of natural resources, environmental factors, urban concentration and rural depopulation etc.) and does not reflects neither the citizens wellbeing (starting from Easterlin Paradox), efforts to develop new statistical standards in order to complement/substitute GDP with other indicators and/or building composite indicators that integrates various aspects of quality of life have been made, but without meeting a general consensus at the global level. In the end of the paper other derived indicators (GNP, GNI, AIC) are discussed and some considerations regarding the time horizon of Romania’s real convergence with the EU, including the accession to Eurozone are added.
    Keywords: System of National Accounts; GDP limitations; International Comparison Program; wellbeing; Romania EU convergence
    JEL: B15 B41 C82 E01 N10 O11
    Date: 2016–09–10
  12. By: Alicia García-Herrero; Jianwei Xu
    Abstract: The Belt and Road initiative, recently embarked on by China, aims to improve cross-border infrastructure in order to reduce transportation costs across a massive geographical area between China and Europe. The authors estimate how much trade might be created among Belt and Road countries as a consequence of the reduction in transportation costs (both railway and maritime) and find that European Union countries, especially landlocked countries, should benefit considerably. This is also true for eastern Europe and Central Asia and, to a lesser extent, south-east Asia. In contrast, if China were to seek to establish a free trade area within the Belt and Road region, EU member states would benefit less, while Asia would benefit more. Xi Jinping’s current vision for the Belt and Road, centred on improving transport infrastructure, is very good news for Europe as far as trade creation is concerned.
    Date: 2016–09
  13. By: Yuzhakov, Vladimir Nikolaevich (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Dobrolyubova, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Klochkova, E.N. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The analysis of state programs of the Russian Federation, on the basis of which prepared guidelines for the development of state programs of the Russian Federation, as well as guidelines for evaluating the effectiveness of state programs of the Russian Federation.
    Keywords: State Programs, Russia, Guidelines
    Date: 2016–05–18
  14. By: Fabrice Defever; Alejandro Riaño
    Abstract: We study the effect of subsidies subject to export share requirements (ESR) - that is, conditioned on a firm exporting at least a given fraction of its output - on exports, the intensity of competition and welfare, through the lens of a two-country model of trade with heterogeneous firms. Our calibrated model suggests that this type of subsidy boosts exports more and provides greater protection for domestic firms than a standard unconditional export subsidy, albeit at a substantial welfare cost.
    Keywords: export share requirements; export subsidies; trade policy; heterogeneous firms; China
    JEL: F12 F13 O47
    Date: 2016–05
  15. By: Jenifer Piesse (Bournemouth University and University of Stellenbosch); Dragana Radicic (University of Cambridge); Allan Webster (Bournemouth University, Executive Business Centre)
    Abstract: This empirical study examines the effect of EU accession on firm efficiency in a sample of 27 transitional countries using data from the 2005 and 2013 BEEPS surveys. Using stochastic frontier analysis and a separate propensity score matching approach it finds a statistically significant association between EU membership and firm performance in both cross-sections. Since EU membership involves more than the liberalisation required for the single market it also uses propensity score matching to find a statistically significant association between EU membership and the internationalisation of firms in transitional countries. Finally it uses inverse probability weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA) to test the proposition that stronger firm performance in transitional countries was associated with firms with higher levels of internationalisation (exports and foreign ownership). Our results support the view that EU membership enhanced firm efficiency in new members from transitional economies and that internationalisation was an important mechanism in that process.
    Keywords: firm efficiency; productivity; European Union; transition
    JEL: F14 F15 D22 I25
    Date: 2016–08
  16. By: Shagaida, Natalia (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The paper discusses the methods of state regulation of the involvement of rural land for the construction of the example of foreign and Russian experience. Tools used in the United States, Uzbekistan, analyzed from the perspective of the feasibility of the use of analogues in Russia. A review of the organization of work on controlled use of farmland for the purposes of housing construction in the Belgorod region. It analyzes the activities of the Federal Fund sodeyst-tions Housing (RHD) with the risk position of agriculture and to ensure the reduction of barriers to housing access.
    Keywords: state regulation, rural land, construction, Uzbekistan, Russia, USA
    Date: 2016–06–28
  17. By: Cecilia Bellora; Sébastien Jean
    Abstract: This Policy Brief assesses the possible economic impacts for the European Union of granting market economy status (MES) to China in antidumping investigations. The issue is important: China ranks first among the countries targeted by European antidumping, and sanctions cover tariff lines worth 8.7% of EU imports from China, based on pre-investigation imports (0.5% for MES partners). We find that China’s exports face a larger number of antidumping investigations than those from MES partners, even accounting for China’s trade specificities. These investigations also have a higher chance of being won by the plaintiff. Furthermore, when a sanction is decided, its trade-restrictive impact is higher against China. In addition, we show that antidumping measures lead not only to an increase in the prices of targeted Chinese products but also in those of Chinese untargeted products similar to those directly targeted. This chilling effect materializes in 4 to 14% prices increases for untargeted exports belonging to the same sector as those targeted. It does not affect MES partners. Antidumping cases against non-MES partners other than China are not numerous enough to isolate the impact of the MES per se. We thus assess the impact of granting MES to China assuming that all China’s specificities in EU antidumping procedures would disappear as a result. Under this assumption, disregarding the chilling effect, changing China’s status would boost its exports to the EU by 3.9% to 5.3% in volume (€13bn to €18bn). Factoring in the removal of the present chilling effect, the impact might reach 7.4% to 21% in volume (€25bn to €72bn). Domestic output losses would be small in relative terms (up to 0.06% disregarding the chilling effect, up to 0.32% taking it into account), but significant in absolute terms (respectively, €3.9bn and €23bn); 90% of these impacts reflect the decline in the number of investigations, as opposed to the level of duty in case of sanction. Accordingly, dropping the so-called lesser duty rule would not alter significantly these impacts.
    Keywords: Antidumping;Market Economy Status;Chilling effect ;China
    JEL: F13 F14
    Date: 2016–09
  18. By: María A. Prats (Universidad de Murcia); Beatriz Sandoval (Universidad de Murcia)
    Abstract: A developed financial system is essential in a market economy. Similarly, economic growth is very important for institutions and economic policy. This paper studies the importance of the development of financial markets in general, and stock market in particular, from the review of existing literature in the area of the relationship between financial development and economic growth, and especially, the link between stock market and economic growth. Through an empirical analysis for six countries in Eastern Europe (Bulgaria, Slovakia, Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic and Romania), it is tried to show the link between the development of stock market and economic growth in these countries from 1995 to 2012 in order to deep in their transition processes, from communist to market economies, that began with the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. The results show evidence of Granger causality with economic growth variables and financial market variables.
    Keywords: Present value model; economic growth, stock market, financial markets, financial developmen
    JEL: F43 O16 G2
    Date: 2016–09
  19. By: Boldyreva, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Kuznetsova, S.D. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Levakin, Igor Vyacheslavovich (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Chepunov, O.I. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Chepus, A.V. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: Public authority is a complex multidimensional phenomenon that causes legal, political, and other sciences numerous discussions on a number of epistemological and methodological aspects of the study and its definition. In the difficult current economic conditions in the course of development of the Russian concept of a strong state capable of effectively fulfill both its internal and external functions, it is particularly relevant the problem of increasing the efficiency of public authorities. This requires the development of clear and expanded the constitutional-legal concept of the effectiveness of the mechanism of public authority, taking into account the relationships between all of its elements, and not just individual units, and a clear idea of ??its practical implementation in the specific criteria of its effectiveness.
    Keywords: ðublic authority, Russian Federation, economic growth
    Date: 2016–05–18
  20. By: Jan Hagemejer (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw; National Bank of Poland)
    Abstract: Since the transition of Central and Eastern European Countries in 1990s, liberalization in trade has changed the structure of these economies. The structural changes occurred as these countries to become the New Member States (NMS) of the European Union in the first decade of the 21st century. In this paper, we shed lights on these changes by analyzing the position of NMS within the global value chains (GVC). By calculation of upstreamness measures proposed by Antras et al. (2012), and tracing both the structure and the evolution of upstreamness over time, we are able to analyze the change in the organization of production around the world and the role the NMS play in the most important export sectors.. Although we observe a global increasing trend in the upstreamness of all countries, we find the convergence in the distance from final demand in trade of NMS and the EU15. There are, however, some large and persistent sectoral differences.
    Keywords: global value chains, upstreamness, European Union, New Member States
    JEL: C67 F10 F15
    Date: 2016
  21. By: Malak-Rawlikowska, Agata; Milczarek-Andrzejewska, Dominika
    Abstract: The extensive and growing literature on food supply chain has been mainly focused on relations between farmers, processing and retail sectors. Various studies have investigated for example the determinants of supply chain relationships (e.g. Dries et al., 2014) and a situation of small-scale producers in the face of rapid supply chain restructuring (e.g. Briones, 2015; Vorley et al., 2007). However, a systematic understanding of how farmers interact with input suppliers is very scarce. In response to this, the paper aims at improving our knowledge about farmers’ relations with input suppliers. The specific example that we examine comes from the Polish dairy sector, which seems to be particularly well suited for investigating relationships within the food value chain. On the one hand, fragmented structure of local farms, and poor income situation of small agricultural holdings are frequently emphasised (Milczarek-Andrzejewska, 2014). On the other hand, Polish dairy and feed sectors have undergone a thorough modernisation (Dries et al., 2011; Piwowar 2013). Rising farmer demand (due to production technology change being necessitated by milk productivity improvement) and increased competition in the feed sector have led to new vertical relations between the farm and feed production segments. Vertical coordination took many forms, including contracting, advisory programs, financial support etc. However, the existing theoretical and empitical literature on vertical spillovers through backward linkages (i.e. from buyers to suppliers) is scarce and focused on manufacturing (Kuijpers, Swinnen, 2016; Jarzębowski, 2013). A study on the relationship between dairy farmers and feed producers means that we examine also the relations between two agri-food chains. These two – dairy and feed – supply chains are vertically connected. The feed supply chain ends at the farm level where the feed is finally used in the milk production process, and where the dairy supply chain starts. Our study allows then to characterize the “boundary” segments of supply chains.
    Keywords: Agribusiness, Farm Management,
    Date: 2016–05
  22. By: Knobel, Alexander (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Kazaryan, Margarita (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Kuznetsov, D.E. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Sedalishchev, V.V. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Firanchuk, Alexander (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The analysis of the agreement on free trade area between Ukraine and the EU and an assessment of the signing of this agreement and the political situation around him will affect the GDP of Russia, Ukraine and the EU, trade flows between the two countries and discussed the risks of termination of cooperation for the individual enterprises of Ukraine and Russia. On the basis of the general equilibrium model, the authors consider the implications for different scenarios of further development of trade relations between Russia and Ukraine. The first scenario is the implementation of the trade agreement on association, namely the zeroing reciprocal duties between the EU and Ukraine. The second scenario is the introduction of CCT EAEC countries in relation to imports from Ukraine, without consideration of the implementation of the commercial part of the association agreement. The third scenario is considering a complete cessation of mutual trade through the introduction of protective (in magnitude) of mutual non-tariff barriers Russia and Ukraine.
    Keywords: Ukraine , Russia, EU, CIS, trade unions
    Date: 2016–05–18
  23. By: Zhuravleva, T.L. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: In this study we use a panel micro data set from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey to investigate the reasons for the existence of the stable private sector wage “premium” in the Russian labor market for the period 1994-2014. We do not find support for significantly higher job security and flexibility in the public sector but we do establish that differences in fringe benefits could explain at least 50% of the wage gap. Furthermore, we find that households with workers in the public sector receive lower earnings but enjoy the same level of consumption expenditures. Differences in assets and precautionary motives of workers cannot reconcile these discrepancies. Unexplained differences are referred to unreported income in the public sector, or bribes.
    Keywords: public sector, inter-sector wage gap, RLMS School of Economics, Russia
    Date: 2016–05–30
  24. By: Longmei Zhang
    Abstract: China is transitioning to a greener, more inclusive, more consumer and service based, and less credit-driven economy. This paper defines a framework for assessing rebalancing, reviews progress, and discusses medium-term prospects. External rebalancing has advanced well, while progress on internal rebalancing has been mixed, with substantial progress on the supply side, moderate progress on the demand side, and limited progress on the credit side. Rebalancing on income equality and environment has also been mixed, with the energy intensity of growth falling and labor’s share of income rising, but income inequality and local air pollution remaining very high. Going forward, the high national saving is expected to fall owing to demographic change and a stronger social safety net, while the investment ratio is expected to fall similarly, with increasing competition and profit normalization as growth slows. The service sector will continue to gain importance, helping reduce the carbon intensity of output and increase labor’s share of national income and household consumption. Reducing the credit intensity of growth is likely to progress slowly unless decisive corporate restructuring and SOE reforms are implemented.
    Keywords: Transition economies;China;Demand;Supply;Credit;Fiscal policy;Exchange rate policy;Domestic savings;Income distribution;Environment;Demographic transition;Rebalancing, China
    Date: 2016–09–06
  25. By: Krasnova, Gulnara (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Polushkina, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: Currently, Russia is a party to several interstate educational spaces, namely the European Union, the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Eurasian Economic Union, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The report analyzes the EU's mechanisms for the formation and activities of intergovernmental educational spaces and the EAEC, that in future will help to build approaches to the long-term Russian strategy of cooperation in the framework of educational alliances with European countries and the EAEC, as well as help formulate approaches to emerging new educational spaces within BRICS, ASEAN . But already now we can say that even humanitarian cooperation in the field of education has economic consequences, measured in concrete terms, and requires analysis of the socio-economic efficiency of Russia's participation in international educational space of the EU, the CIS, EAEC, SCO, above all, for the national labor market highly qualified personnel, labor mobility.
    Keywords: EU, CIS, EAEC, SCO, Russia
    Date: 2016–06–28
  26. By: Barinova, V.A. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Laitner, Skip (American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy); Lashina, T.A. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The paper studied the economic aspects of the use of renewable energy sources (RES) in Russia and the world, studied the world practice of state policy in the field of renewable energy, as well as the characteristic of the main tendencies of development of renewable energy. The analysis of the implementation mechanisms of the state renewable energy incentives in Russia, including content analysis of the legal framework of such incentives.
    Keywords: renewable energy sources, Russia
    Date: 2016–05–18
  27. By: Alzbeta Mullerova
    Abstract: Parental leave is a key policy tool for addressing work-life reconciliation issues inherent to parenthood, including maternal employment and its continuity. The 2004 Czech accession to the EU shed light on the scope of the employment gap between women with and without children at pre-school age, highest among all the OECD countries (41%). This is due to very long universal paid parental leave: 4 years per child. In order to tackle this gap and to conform to the EU trend, a major reform was designed in 2008, and this paper investigates its effects on mothers’ participation and employment. I use the Labour Force Survey to assess the effect of this reform on maternal employment and activity levels, thanks to a difference-in-differences identification strategy. The reform provided an extensive change in financial incentives in favour of shorter leaves, and I show that effects on return-to-work timing are large and significant. However, if mothers do respond to the incentive by advancing the timing of the return to work by one year, the eligibility restrictions as well as the public childcare shortage narrow - de facto - the scope of the effect, which merely compensates for the massive opposite trend induced in the 1990s.
    Keywords: Parental Leave, Policy Evaluation, Female Labour Force Participation.
    JEL: J16 J18 P30
    Date: 2016
  28. By: International Monetary Fund.
    Abstract: The program is delivering good results, particularly in achieving key macroeconomic objectives. Significant fiscal tightening and efforts to address structural weaknesses have helped boost confidence and restore growth. This has been supported by a healthy credit recovery on the back of substantial monetary policy easing as inflation has been persistently low. Notwithstanding this progress, public debt remains elevated and delays continue in some structural reforms, in part due to recent elections.
    Keywords: Stand-by arrangement reviews;Fiscal policy;Fiscal reforms;Monetary policy;Banking sector;Economic indicators;Balance of payments statistics;Letters of Intent;Debt sustainability analysis;Staff Reports;Press releases;Phasing of purchases;Serbia;
    Date: 2016–09–02
  29. By: Mamedov, Arseny (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA); Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Hudko, Hudko (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Belev, Sergei (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA); Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Moguchev, Nikita Sergeevich (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: This paper presents an overview of theoretical views on the state's role in the revitalization of the investment process in the country, summarizes approaches to evaluating the effectiveness of public investment, described the trend of public financing of investment by industry and the level of individual budgets in OECD countries and the BRICS. The analysis of the main elements of the formation of the state investment policy: the account environmental factors, improving the practical implementation of the investment budget and optimization of mechanisms of the state investment policy instruments in relation to the choice of a certain sphere of realization of investment projects.
    Keywords: state investment policy, OECD, BRICS
    Date: 2016–05–30
  30. By: ITO Koichiro; ZHANG Shuang
    Abstract: We develop a framework to estimate the willingness to pay (WTP) for clean air from defensive investments. Applying this framework to product-by-store level scanner data on air purifier sales in China, we provide among the first revealed preference estimates of WTP for clean air in developing countries. A spatial discontinuity in air pollution created by the Huai River heating policy enables us to analyze household responses to long-run exposure to pollution. Our model allows heterogeneity in preference parameters to investigate potential heterogeneity in WTP among households. We show that our estimates provide important policy implications for optimal environmental regulations.
    Date: 2016–06
  31. By: Bukvić, Rajko
    Abstract: This article analyzes the presumptions for the development of cooperation between the Republic of Serbia and Krasnodar Krai, one of the subjects of Russian Federation. At the beginning it was provided a geographic and socio-economic description of Krasnodar Krai, one of the federal subjects of the complexly organized Russian Federation. Its size and population are comparable to the ones of smaller European countries, such as Austria, Czech Republic, Republic of Ireland or Denmark, Finland and Slovakia. In comparison to Serbia, this region is somewhat smaller and less densely populated. Its landscape and climate diversity, as well as an abundance of natural resources make a good starting point for a further economic and social development of the region. The agro-industrial complex and tourism are especially developed in this region and are considered its strong points both within Russia and outside its borders. In the production of many agrarian products Krasnodar Krai is leader, or at the top in the Russian Federation. The level of industrial cooperation between Serbia and Russia is considerably lower than in the times of SFRY and USSR. However, it will certainly increase in the future, leading to an intensification of cooperation with Krasnodar region which will not only be based on trade relations. У овом раду се анализирају претпоставке развијања сарадње између Републике Србије и Краснодарске покрајине, једног од субјеката Руске Федерације. Најпре је дат географски и друштвеноекономски приказ Краснодарске покрајине, једног од субјеката сложено уређене Руске Федерације. По величини територије и броју становника упоредив с мањим европским земљама, попут Аустрије, Чешке или Републике Ирске, односно Данске, Финске и Словачке, овај руски регион је нешто мањи и слабије насељен од Србије. Разноврсност рељефа, климатских услова и велика природна богатства чине повољне услове за економски и друштвени развој региона. Посебно су развијени агроиндустријски комплекс и туризам, што и представља знак распознавања региона не само у оквирима Русије, већ и ван њених граница. У производњи низа пољопривредних култура Краснодарска покрајина заузима водеће, или једно од водећих места у оквирима Руске Федерације. Привредна сарадња Србије с Русијом у целини знатно заостаје за оном из времена СФРЈ и СССР, али ће у будућности свакако бити повећана, а у оквиру тога и сарадња с Краснодарском Покрајином, која се неће заснивати само на трговинским односима.
    Keywords: Economic cooperation, Krasnodar Krai, Republic of Serbia, agro-industry, tourism, development Економска сарадња, Краснодарска покрајина, Република Србија, агроиндустрија, туризам, развој
    JEL: F59 O57 R10 R11
    Date: 2016
  32. By: International Monetary Fund.
    Abstract: The economy of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) continues to recover. Growth was 3.2 percent in 2015, despite fiscal consolidation forced by financing constraints, and is expected to be at about the same level this year. External and internal imbalances have eased substantially in the past year. However, since the global financial crisis, economic convergence with advanced European economies has lagged. Unemployment, especially among the youth, is high and persistent, and creates incentives for emigration. There are important challenges in the areas of improving the business environment, reorienting fiscal policy to support growth while ensuring sustainability, promoting credit while safeguarding financial stability, and ensuring the fragmented governance structure does not affect the single economic space.
    Date: 2016–09–09
  33. By: Mohamed Arouri (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans - UO - Université d'Orléans - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Adel Ben Youssef (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Cuong Nguyen-Viet (Chercheur Indépendant)
    Abstract: There is no doubt that parental smoking can cause health problems for children. It is expected that parents who are aware of the harmful effect of secondhand smoke would decrease parental smoking when having more children. Yet, using instrumental variable regressions and data from the 2006 and 2008 Vietnam Household Living Standard Surveys , we find a very strongly positive and significant effect of the number of children on the probability of households smoking tobacco in Vietnam. Having an additional child increases the probability of households consuming tobacco by approximately 15 percent. These findings imply low awareness levels regarding the harmful effects of secondhand smoke on children " s health in Vietnam and indicate the need for policy action that disseminates knowledge on the harmful effects of smoking.
    Keywords: I31,parental smoking behaviors, children,health, instrumental variable regressions JEL Classifications: I12,O1
    Date: 2016–01–12
  34. By: Idrisov, Georgy (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Ponomarev, Yury (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA); Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Pleskachev, Yury Andreevich (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The paper presents the results of research and assessment of the combined exchange rate and import duty pass-through effect in the Russian economy and its key features. We used data on the basic macroeconomic indicators, published by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the Federal State Statistics Service, Federal Customs Service, as well as scientific, analytical and statistical publication of Russian and foreign sources, including international organizations.
    Keywords: exchange rate, import duty, economy
    Date: 2016–06–16
  35. By: Alessio Ciarlone (Banca d'Italia); Andrea Colabella (Banca d'Italia)
    Abstract: In this paper we provide evidence that the effects of the ECB’s asset purchase programmes spill over into CESEE countries, contributing to easing their financial conditions both in the short and in the long term through different transmission channels. In the short term, a number of variables in CESEE financial markets appear to respond to news related to the ECB’s non-standard policies by moving in the expected direction. Over a longer-term horizon, we found that cross-border portfolio and banking capital flows towards CESEE economies have been ffected by both the announcement and the actual implementation of the ECB’s asset purchase programmes, pointing to the existence of a portfolio rebalancing and a banking liquidity channel.
    Keywords: unconventional monetary policy, ECB, Central and Eastern Europe, international spillovers, event study
    JEL: C32 C33 E52 E58 F32 F36
    Date: 2016–09
  36. By: Levin, Mark (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Shilova, Nadezhda V. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA); National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The paper contains a review of works on rentseeking with special attention paid to political corruption and corruptive networks. We also present here a theoretical model of rentseeking behavior in complex systems. The results of the model are tested not as it is usually done by speculative data about volumes of corruption, but on mass media reports about anticorruption measures in Russia. We used this data because Russian mass media is dependent on the few powerful interest groups, so through analyzing the texts we can derive which interest groups these are. As it was predicted for the developing countries in Africa, we fund out that these groups are Army and Police. This proves that in developing countries political stability is supported not by economic development, but by status-quo between well-organized militarized rent-seeking groups.
    Keywords: rentseeking behavior, corruption, graph method
    Date: 2016–07–22
  37. By: Bobylev, Yuri (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Rasenko, O.A. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The oil sector is one of the base in the Russian economy and plays a leading role in the formation of government revenues and the country's trade balance. This paper analyzes the main trends in the Russian oil sector, including the production and processing of crude oil, petroleum exports, domestic consumption of oil, the price of oil and petroleum products, government regulation. Proposed public policy measures to ensure the further development of the oil sector of the Russian economy.
    Keywords: Russia, oil, economy
    Date: 2016–06–16
  38. By: Yi Huang (IHEID, The Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva); Marco Pagano (University of Naples Federico II); Ugo Panizza (IHEID, The Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva)
    Abstract: In China, local public debt issuance between 2006 and 2013 crowded out investment by private manufacturing firms by tightening their funding constraints, while it did not affect state-owned and foreign firms. Using novel data for local public debt issuance, we establish this result in three ways. First, local public debt is inversely correlated with the city-level investment ratio of domestic private manufacturing firms. Instrumental variable regressions indicate that this link is causal. Second, local public debt has a larger negative effect on investment by private firms in industries more dependent on external funding. Finally, in cities with high government debt, firm-level investment is more sensitive to internal funding, also when this sensitivity is estimated jointly with the firm?s likelihood of being credit-constrained. Altogether, these results suggest that, by curtailing private investment, the massive public debt issuance associated with the post-2008 fiscal stimulus sapped long-term growth prospects in China.
    Keywords: Investment, Local public debt, Crowding out, Credit constraints, China.
    JEL: E22 H63 H74 L60 O16
    Date: 2016–07
  39. By: Danilov, Yury A. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Yandiev, Magomet (Moscow State University - Faculty of Economics)
    Abstract: The paper deals with the introduction of Islamic finance model in the practice of the Russian financial market. The reasons of advancing growth of Islamic finance in the modern world, international experience on the formation of Islamic finance segments in various countries around the world, both Muslim and non-Muslim. Analyzes the main obstacles are formulated basic options to overcome them and made suggestions on the choice of the optimal variant. Estimates of the socio-economic effects of the introduction of Islamic finance in Russia.
    Keywords: islam, finances, banking, Russia
    Date: 2016–06–28

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