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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Gordeev, Dmitriy (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Idrisova, Vittoria (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Kaukin, Andrei (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Ponomarev, Yuriy (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA); Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Filicheva, Evgeniya (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | Reducing the costs of international trade as a result of technological progress and trade liberalization around the world has led to increased fragmentation and internationalization of production, an increase in the intensity of trade in intermediate goods. Under these conditions, is becoming increasingly important tracking global trade chains, the study of factors export and import value-added embodied in goods and services of a country. The aim of this work is to develop theoretical and empirical evaluation of the model value-added trade, as well as the development of recommendations for management of industrial and trade policy with Russia, taking into account the results obtained. In this study, an analysis of the current structure of trade flows, provides an overview of key theoretical and empirical approaches to the evaluation of international trade flows. As part of this study to determine the theoretical form and specified empirical trade model specifications added value. The evaluation of empirical specifications models of international trade added value of the basic principles of functioning of global trade and production chains, identified key factors that determine the intensity of the flow of added value embodied in goods and services. The results of this study allow a new point of view to determine the main directions of economic policy, contributing to the expansion of the volume of exports of high degree of redistribution and improvement of the production structure of the Russian economy. The paper described a promising tool of industrial and trade policy of the Russian Federation, and the relationship between these instruments, fleshed out the key principles for the integration of Russian producers in international value chains. |
| Keywords: | international trade, global supply chains |
| Date: | 2016–06–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:765&r=tra |
| By: | Gordeev, Dmitriy (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Idrisov, Georgiy (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Idrisova, Vittoria (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Kaukin, Andrei (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | To date, one of the most used tools for the analysis of international trade is a gravity model of trade. A significant simplification of the model is the replacement cost of trade between the two countries on the distance between them, acting as a proxy variable. Thus, under the costs of foreign trade refers to not only transportation costs, but also the cost of doing this kind of activity as a whole. Administrative, informational, tax, adjustment costs, etc. However, in the academic literature is virtually no research on the analysis of trade flows, taking into account the calculated transportation costs on specific routes. Conducting such a study will fill a gap in the theory of gravitational models of trade, as well as provide an opportunity for more detailed empirical analysis of trade flows on selected routes. The aim is a theoretical modification empirical calibration of the spatial gravity model of trade based on the actual transport cost value of goods on certain routes, recommendations on updating the predictive model of Russia's foreign trade, the development of economic and trade policies, including those aimed at reducing the negative effects of external sanctions and downturn in the economy. To achieve this objective the work objectives: the analysis and systematization of the existing theoretical and empirical approaches to the analysis of foreign trade of goods transportation costs; analysis and systematization of the existing theoretical and empirical approaches to the analysis of the volume and routing trade flows, taking into account the transportation costs for the individual supply chains; modification of the spatial gravity model of trade of Russia to work with detailed trade flows and the cost of transportation of goods in the existing supply chain; empirical assessment of the modified model to the data of the Russian foreign trade in the years 2011-2014, to determine the degree by the amount of the cost of the transport component of the impact of trade flows and routing varying degrees of aggregation. |
| Keywords: | spatial distribution, foreign trade, spatial gravity model of trade, Russia |
| Date: | 2016–06–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:764&r=tra |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept |
| Abstract: | China continues its transition to a sustainable growth path. Rebalancing has progressed on many dimensions, particularly switching from industry to services and from investment to consumption, but less on reining in rapid credit growth. Reforms have advanced impressively across a wide domain, but lagged in some critical areas, and the transition to sustainable growth is proving difficult, with sizable economic and financial volatility. Vulnerabilities are still rising on a dangerous trajectory and fiscal and foreign exchange buffers, while still adequate, are eroding. |
| Keywords: | Article IV consultation reports;Transition economies;Economic growth;Corporate sector;Public enterprises;Debt;Floating exchange rates;Banks;Financial stability;Economic indicators;Balance of payments statistics;Staff Reports;Press releases;China, People's Republic of; |
| Date: | 2016–08–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/270&r=tra |
| By: | Danilov, Yuriy (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Dustova, E. A. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The paper deals with the global competitiveness of national financial markets (financial centers), its comprehensive evaluation in relation to Russia. Studied measures to improve global competitiveness, implemented competitors Russia, formulated proposals for the modernization of the Russian state policy in the financial market. |
| Keywords: | national financial markets, competitiveness |
| Date: | 2016–06–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:961&r=tra |
| By: | Stanislaw Cichocki (GRAPE, University of Warsaw); Joanna Tyrowicz (GRAPE, University of Warsaw; National Bank of Poland); Lucas van der Velde (GRAPE, University of Warsaw) |
| Abstract: | Two main features of the reallocation process that took place in Eastern European and Former Soviet Union countries should be distinguished: first, the decline in public sector employment due to the collapse of state owned enterprises combined with an increase in private sector employment as new private firms emerged and old public companies were privatized. The second feature was (and still is) the reallocation of labor from manufacturing to service sector. Using data from the Polish LFS for the period 1995-2015 we construct measures of worker flows (gross and net) and inquire their cyclical properties as a way to test the predictions of structural change and transition theories. We find that labor market adjustments tend to amplify in upturns of the business cycle, while worker flows contribute only a fraction to the changing structure of employment. We discuss policy implications of these findings. |
| Keywords: | labor reallocation, labor flows, transition, business cycle |
| JEL: | J21 J62 P31 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:war:wpaper:2016-19&r=tra |
| By: | Huang, Yi; Pagano, Marco; Panizza, Ugo |
| Abstract: | In China, local public debt issuance between 2006 and 2013 crowded out investment by private manufacturing firms by tightening their funding constraints, while it did not affect state-owned and foreign firms. Using novel data for local public debt issuance, we establish this result in three ways. First, local public debt is inversely correlated with the city-level investment ratio of domestic private manufacturing firms. Instrumental variable regressions indicate that this link is causal. Second, local public debt has a larger negative effect on investment by private firms in industries more dependent on external funding. Finally, in cities with high government debt, firm-level investment is more sensitive to internal funding, also when this sensitivity is estimated jointly with the firm's likelihood of being credit-constrained. Altogether, these results suggest that the massive public debt issuance associated with the post-2008 fiscal stimulus curtailed private investment thus weakening China's long-term growth prospects. |
| Keywords: | China.; credit constraints; Crowding out; investment; Local public debt |
| JEL: | E22 H63 H74 L60 O16 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11489&r=tra |
| By: | Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu (UPT); Daniel Goyeau (CRIEF) |
| Abstract: | Inside the EU, the commercial integration of the CEE countries has gained remarkable momentum before the crisis appearance, but it has slightly slowed down afterwards. Consequently, the interest in identifying the factors supporting the commercial integration process is high. Recent findings in the new trade theory suggest that FDI influence the trade intensity but the studies approaching this relationship for the CEE countries present mixed evidence, and investigate the commercial integration of CEE countries with the old EU members. Against this background, the purpose of this paper is to assess the CEE countries' intra-integration, focusing on the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and the Slovak Republic. For each country we employ a panel gravitational model for the bilateral trade and FDI, considering its interactions with the other three countries in the sample on the one hand, and with the three EU main commercial partners on the other hand. We investigate different facets of the trade -- FDI nexus, resorting to a fixed effects model, a random effects model, as well as to an instrumental variable estimator, over the period 2000-2013. Our results suggest that outward FDI sustains the CEE countries' commercial integration, while inward FDI has no significant effect. In all the cases a complementarity effect between trade and FDI is documented, which is stronger for the CEE countries' historical trade partners. Consequently, these findings show that CEE countries' policymakers are interested in encouraging the outward FDI toward their neighbour countries in order to increase the commercial integration. |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1609.02334&r=tra |
| By: | Smolkin, Anton (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | This research work deals with trust networks and social capital as main tools of repairing improper work of formal institutions. It is shown, basing on data for study ‘Eurobarometer in Russia’ conducted in 2012-2015, how different levels of trust (generalized, interpersonal, institutional) are combined in Russian society. Moreover, the connection of interpersonal trust and the level of social capital is demonstrated. The ways of solving problems, reared sue to ineffective work of institutions, using trust networks are also examined. |
| Keywords: | trust networks, social capital, interpersonal trust, institutional trust, economic behavior |
| Date: | 2016–06–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:7612&r=tra |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. European Dept. |
| Abstract: | A favorable external environment, high utilization of EU funds, and supportive macroeconomic policies have boosted economic growth. The authorities’ medium-term fiscal objective is appropriate, but fiscal framework legislation that would anchor policy is yet to be approved by parliament. The central bank’s use of an exchange rate floor to achieve its inflation target has helped stem deflationary pressures, but inflation is still well below target. The financial system is sound and resilient to shocks. |
| Keywords: | Article IV consultation reports;Economic growth;Fiscal policy;Fiscal reforms;Monetary policy;Inflation targeting;Negative interest rates;Bank supervision;Economic indicators;Balance of payments statistics;Debt sustainability analysis;Staff Reports;Press releases;Czech Republic; |
| Date: | 2016–07–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/213&r=tra |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. European Dept. |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the economic developments, outlook, risk, and policies of Croatia. This East European country has begun since the last quarter of 2014 to gradually recover from a six-year recession. In 2015 real GDP grew by 1.6 percent, driven by strong exports and tourism, a revival of private consumption, and higher public investment. Consumer prices have largely been declining over the past two years, mainly due to lower energy and food prices. Unemployment declined only slightly since 2014 and remains very high. However, absent concrete measures to underpin some of the planned reforms, slightly higher deficit in 2016 and a slower pace of consolidation over the medium term are projected. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal policy;Credit;Banks;Credit demand;Labor markets;Unemployment;Minimum wage;Selected Issues Papers;Croatia; |
| Date: | 2016–06–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/187&r=tra |
| By: | Izryadnova Olga (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The main factors behind development of the Russian economy in the past two years were as follows: shrinkage of external demand and depreciation of prices on Russia’s main primary sector commodities which make up the basis of the export potential; weakening of domestic demand due to a drop in revenues of the economy and growth in costs; narrowing of the extent of imports which formed over one-third of domestic market resources; reduction of volumes of domestic and foreign capital investments. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, production, microstructure |
| JEL: | G28 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2016-266&r=tra |
| By: | Monika Hadas-Dyduch (University of Economics in Katowice, Poland); Michal Bernard Pietrzak (Nicolaus Copernicus University, Poland); Adam P. Balcerzak (Nicolaus Copernicus University, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Visegrad countries, Poland, Slovakia, Czech Republic and Hungary have common history and have faced the same challenges created by globalisation process for the last three decades. They have successfully transformed form central planned to market economies. They have implemented fundamental reforms of their whole institutional systems and finally joined the European Union in the year 2004. During this process the most significant changes, which were directly influenced by opening of these economies in the reality of globalisation, have been seen on the labour markets. From the policy point of view the labour markets are always considered as crucial for social and macroeconomic stability of economies. This forces the economists to constant empirical research in this field. In this context the aim of the article is to conduct comparative analysis of the unemployment phenomena in the four countries. For this purpose wavelet analysis was applied. In the research a discrete wavelet transformation was used, which has been recently effectively used for analysis of macroeconomic indicators. The empirical research was conducted for the years 1998-2016 and it was based on the Eurostat data. In the research the following hypothesis was verified: the phenomenon of unemployment in the case of Poland, Slovakia and Hungary is formed in a quite similar way, whereas in Czech Republic the situation on the labour markets is mainly determined by factors of different nature. |
| Keywords: | unemployment, wavelet analysis, multiresolution analysis, Visegrad countries |
| JEL: | E2 E24 C45 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2016:no37&r=tra |
| By: | Tevdovski, Dragan; Petrevski, Goran; Bogoev, Jane |
| Abstract: | We analyse the effects of fiscal and monetary policies in two South Eastern European (SEE) economies with currency pegs (Croatia and Macedonia) estimated by the Bayesian Vector Autoregression. The main results of the study are as follows: Fiscal tightening leads to economic expansion in Macedonia and a decline in economic activity in Croatia. In both countries fiscal tightening leads to a decline in inflation and money market rates. Monetary tightening leads to output contraction and a decline in inflation in both countries. We find opposite reaction of fiscal authorities to a monetary shock: monetary contraction is accompanied by fiscal tightening in Croatia and by loose fiscal policy in Macedonia. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, Bayesian VAR |
| JEL: | E52 E58 E62 E63 |
| Date: | 2016–03–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:73461&r=tra |
| By: | Avraamova, Elena M. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Karavay, Anastasia V. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Klyachko, Tatiana (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Loginov, Dmitriy (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | Research development of additional professional education (APE) was carried out during the recession of the Russian economy, where human development and, in particular, the employment potential has become even more urgent due to aggravation of inter-country competition. APE is also one of the most important increase of labor potential quality tools. The research allowed to identify the main trends of development of APE. The study was based, firstly, on the annual monitoring data "Eurobarometer", describing the involvement of the Russian population in the APE system, and secondly, on a survey of managers of HR services on the main issues, tasks, organizational and financial approaches to APE, thirdly , on a survey of employees of enterprises, companies and organizations with respect to the goals, motives, forms and APE results. |
| Keywords: | additional professional education, Russian economy |
| Date: | 2016–06–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:963&r=tra |
| By: | Maria Semenova (National Research University Higher School); Andrey Shapkin (Sberbank) |
| Abstract: | Market discipline in the personal deposit market is of great importance for regulators. In developing economies, which rely much and are dependent on the dollar and euro, changes in the currency structure of the deposits may be strategic and work as an additional disciplining mechanism. Our study sheds light on this mechanism of currency shifts in the Russian market for personal deposits. Using data on more than 900 Russian banks for 2005¬–2015, we provide evidence that less risky banks—at least in terms of capital adequacy and liquidity—demonstrate higher growth of both the volume and the share of deposits denominated in foreign currency, even when the exchange rate volatility component is extracted. This mechanism continued working during the financial crisis of 2008–2009 |
| Keywords: | Market discipline, Personal deposits, Currency shifts, Russia |
| JEL: | G21 G01 P2 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:57/fe/2016&r=tra |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses Armenia’s Third Review Under the Extended Arrangement, and Request for Waiver and Modification of Performance Criteria (PC). Growth in Armenia is expected to remain subdued as recession in Russia continues and as the base effects of the 2015 one-off factors dissipate. The program performance has been broadly satisfactory. All end-December 2015 PCs, except for the fiscal deficit PC, and all the continuous PCs were met. The fiscal deficit PC was missed by 0.3 percent of GDP. The IMF staff supports completion of the review and the authorities’ request for a purchase in an amount equivalent to SDR 15.65 million. |
| Keywords: | Extended arrangement reviews;Fiscal policy;Fiscal reforms;Monetary policy;Inflation targeting;Bank supervision;Economic indicators;Balance of payments statistics;Letters of Intent;Staff Reports;Press releases;Performance criteria modifications;Performance criteria waivers;Armenia; |
| Date: | 2016–07–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/246&r=tra |
| By: | Bobylev Yuri (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | Oil and gas industry remains the basic sector of Russian economy playing the key role in shaping the state budget revenues and the country’s trade balance. In 2015, the oil sector’s development was marked by positive dynamics. Due to investments made in the previous years, the crude oil production in Russia has reached peak levels since 1990 and crude oil export hit all time maximum. Restructuring of the oil sector taxation system has been launched. The reform envisages significant reduction of the economic role of export duties. Low global crude oil prices together with financial and technological sanctions imposed on Russia have hampered the development of this sector. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, oil and gas sector, oil production, oil prices |
| JEL: | L71 L72 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2016-267&r=tra |
| By: | Repetyuk, Sergei Vyacheslavovich (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Fayn, Boris Ilyich (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Mozgovaya, Oxana Olegovna (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The research studies the aspects of customer’s network infrastructure access in the Russian Federation in other countries. The steps, procedures and terms of the distribution electricity network connection, requirements to publish network access information by grid companies, connection charges value and structure were analyzed. The distribution electricity network connection activities regulation methods in different countries were compared. The better procedures and practices of network connection in different countries were discovered, and the opportunity of their implementation into the Russian Federation government regulation was identified. |
| Keywords: | network infrastructure, customers, Russian Federation |
| Date: | 2016–06–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:962&r=tra |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. European Dept. |
| Abstract: | This Selected Issues paper describes structural reform policies in Russia in the last 15 years. There is evidence of a gradual convergence of Russia’s performance to that of more advanced economies, though significant gaps remain. Progress in Russia’s global competitiveness index indicators during the past 10 years has been generally stronger for those indicators in which Russia’s performance was comparatively weaker in 2006. The authorities’ view that oil prices will be persistently low and a real exchange rate more aligned to fundamentals should serve as incentives to build a less oil-dependent growth model. Clear targets, carefully sequenced actions, appropriate accountability, and frequent monitoring could help advance reforms. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth;Productivity;Exports;Capital accumulation;Global competitiveness;Fiscal reforms;Fiscal consolidation;Selected Issues Papers;Russian Federation; |
| Date: | 2016–07–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/230&r=tra |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. European Dept. |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on the key issues related to the economy of Latvia. Growth picked up somewhat last year despite a weak external environment. GDP growth rose to 2.7 percent, up about ¼ percent over the previous year. However, growth is expected to slow slightly in 2016 to 2½ percent. While Latvia continues to make steady economic progress, a key challenge will be to generate the growth necessary to sustain the pace of income convergence with Western Europe. Structural reforms will be required to improve state-owned enterprise governance and strengthen the business environment, upgrade public infrastructure, and modernize legal systems. |
| Keywords: | Article IV consultation reports;Economic growth;Productivity;Fiscal policy;Fiscal reforms;Banking sector;Bank supervision;Economic indicators;Balance of payments statistics;Debt sustainability analysis;Staff Reports;Press releases;Latvia;monetary fund, market, inflation, tax, economic developments |
| Date: | 2016–06–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/171&r=tra |
| By: | Thomas F. Remington (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Upgrading vocational education and training (VET) has become an increasingly urgent task for societies facing the challenges of rapid technological change and globalization. Today governments in many countries, including the United States, Russia and China, are seeking to adopt elements of the German dual education model. However, implementing dual education is institutionally demanding because of the multiple collective dilemmas inherent in coordinating VET with the labor market. The Russian federal government has undertaken several initiatives designed to upgrade the quality of VET by encouraging close cooperation of vocational schools and firms at the regional level. This paper focuses on a 2013 project administered by the Russian Agency for Strategic Initiatives (ASI), which ran a competition to select regions as pilot regions for the development of new models of dual education. The paper compares the 13 pilot regions with regions that submitted proposals but were not selected and with and all other regions along multiple economic, social, demographic and institutional dimensions. The findings suggest hypotheses about the conditions that enabled the pilot regions to take advantage of federal policies encouraging the adoption of dual education |
| Keywords: | Russian Federation, vocational education and training (VET), skill formation, coordinated and liberal market economies, collective dilemmas |
| JEL: | Z |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:38/ps/2016&r=tra |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. European Dept. |
| Abstract: | Poland continued its convergence to average EU income levels, growing well above most of its peers. Yet, significant regional disparities and long-term structural challenges remain. The new government, which took office in November 2015, has introduced a number of new policies, some of which have dented investor sentiment and could weaken growth going forward. The near-term outlook is for continued expansion with low oil prices weighing on inflation. External risks to the outlook remain elevated and prospects of controversial policy initiatives have heightened domestic risks. Sound institutions, growth-friendly policies, and structural reforms are critical to achieve sustainable and inclusive growth. |
| Keywords: | Article IV consultation reports;Economic growth;Fiscal policy;Fiscal consolidation;Fiscal reforms;Monetary policy;Inflation targeting;Economic indicators;Balance of payments statistics;Debt sustainability analysis;Staff Reports;Press releases;Poland; |
| Date: | 2016–07–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/210&r=tra |
| By: | Berezinskaya, Olga (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Schelokova, D.V. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The work is devoted to analysis of credit borrowing of non-financial sector of the economy. The relevance of the work is determined by the importance of non-financial sector credit for the implementation of their potential "window of opportunity", reduced availability of financial resources and high credit risk of a number of industries. The work contains a comprehensive analysis of lending and non-financial sector of the economy is based on the data of the statistical reporting of enterprises, reporting of credit institutions and the Central Bank estimates. The paper identified the dynamics and current debt load sectors non-financial sector and the role of the Russian banking system in lending to industry, formulated imbalances and risks of expansion of bank lending to non-financial sector. The results obtained are productive for the understanding of the prospects and limitations of lending sectors non-financial sector of the Russian economy, the risks and the potential growth of its credit borrowing. |
| Keywords: | loan, credit, window of opportunity |
| Date: | 2016–05–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:1653&r=tra |
| By: | Svetlov, Nikolai (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA); Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) - Central Economics and Mathematics Institute); Shishkina, Ekaterina (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The paper presents the economic and mathematical analysis of the likely consequences of the transition to a single agri-food policy in the three countries EAEC - Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia. Use any copyrighted modification of economic-mathematical model of partial equilibrium EPACIS, which eliminates the drawbacks associated with alternative solutions and computational problems. The expediency of a conservative approach to integration processes in the EAEC, consisting in the integration of primary markets, the integration of the least prone to stress; the priority of improving the competitiveness of inefficient sectors to the integration of markets; ready to suspend the acts aimed at deepening integration, the detection of adverse effects. |
| Keywords: | agri-food policy, EAEC, economic and mathemathical analysis |
| Date: | 2016–06–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:767&r=tra |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. European Dept. |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a cross-country report on minimum wages. In the past few years, many countries in Central Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) have increasingly turned to minimum wage policies. Throughout the region, statutory minimum wages had been in place at least since the early 1990s, but they were typically set at relatively moderate levels and affected relatively few workers. Minimum wages have risen sharply relative to both average wages and labor productivity. Minimum wages often affect relatively more workers in CESEE than in Western Europe. Governments are the key players in the minimum wage determination in CESEE countries. |
| Keywords: | Minimum wage;Eastern Europe;Wages;Income distribution;Cross country analysis;Article IV consultations;Selected Issues Papers;Latvia;Lithuania;Poland;Romania;minimum wage, minimum wages, minimum wage hikes, workers, labor |
| Date: | 2016–06–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/151&r=tra |
| By: | Atif Ansar; Bent Flyvbjerg; Alexander Budzier; Daniel Lunn |
| Abstract: | The prevalent view in the economics literature is that a high level of infrastructure investment is a precursor to economic growth. China is especially held up as a model to emulate. Based on the largest dataset of its kind, this paper punctures the twin myths that, first, infrastructure creates economic value, and, second, China has a distinct advantage in its delivery. Far from being an engine of economic growth, the typical infrastructure investment fails to deliver a positive risk adjusted return. Moreover, China's track record in delivering infrastructure is no better than that of rich democracies. Where investments are debt-financed, overinvesting in unproductive projects results in the buildup of debt, monetary expansion, instability in financial markets, and economic fragility, exactly as we see in China today. We conclude that poorly managed infrastructure investments are a main explanation of surfacing economic and financial problems in China. We predict that, unless China shifts to a lower level of higher-quality infrastructure investments, the country is headed for an infrastructure-led national financial and economic crisis, which is likely also to be a crisis for the international economy. China's infrastructure investment model is not one to follow for other countries but one to avoid. |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1609.00415&r=tra |
| By: | Ruben V Atoyan; Lone Engbo Christiansen; Allan Dizioli; Christian H Ebeke; Nadeem Ilahi; Anna Ilyina; Gil Mehrez; Haonan Qu; Faezeh Raei; Alaina P Rhee; Daria V Zakharova |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the impact of large and persistent emigration from Eastern European countries over the past 25 years on these countries’ growth and income convergence to advanced Europe. While emigration has likely benefited migrants themselves, the receiving countries and the EU as a whole, its impact on sending countries’ economies has been largely negative. The analysis suggests that labor outflows, particularly of skilled workers, lowered productivity growth, pushed up wages, and slowed growth and income convergence. At the same time, while remittance inflows supported financial deepening, consumption and investment in some countries, they also reduced incentives to work and led to exchange rate appreciations, eroding competiveness. The departure of the young also added to the fiscal pressures of already aging populations in Eastern Europe. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for sending countries to mitigate the negative impact of emigration on their economies, and the EU-wide initiatives that could support these efforts. |
| Keywords: | Emigration and immigration;Central and Eastern Europe;Private sector;Global competitiveness;Skilled labor;Remittances;Income;Economic growth;Gross domestic product;Emigration, remittances, growth, convergence, Eastern Europe |
| Date: | 2016–07–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfsdn:16/7&r=tra |
| By: | Ivankina, Elena Vladimirovna (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Boronina, A. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Kupriyanov, S.L. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The work is devoted to analysis of foreign countries the taxation system in order to develop differentiated approaches and rates of taxation of real estate in Russia. In Russia, begins to form on the taxation of property of citizens. The first results of the tax reform will be possible to bring in the end of 2016 - early 2017. Since the reform will be introduced throughout 2016, study foreign experience of taxation is one of the most urgent tasks. Tax Investigation in foreign countries was carried out using both the expert method, and based on the study of existing international information system data. |
| Keywords: | property tax, land tax, taxation of foreign experience |
| Date: | 2016–05–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:1651&r=tra |
| By: | Wai-Yip Alex Ho; Chun-Yu Ho |
| Abstract: | We find that from 1995 to 2002 in China, the dispersion of wealth decreased, the moneywealth ratio increased for all wealth levels and the aggregate money-output ratio increased. We develop a two-asset dynamic general equilibrium model in which households face a portfolio adjustment cost and a borrowing constraint. We find that financial development lowers the dispersion of wealth by reducing the precautionary motive of households. In addition, tight monetary policies increase the value of money and thus increase the moneywealth ratio for all wealth levels and the aggregate money-output ratio. |
| Keywords: | Inflation;China;Financial markets;Income distribution;Transition economies;Econometric models;Inflation, Borrowing Constraint, Adjustment Cost, Heterogeneous Agents, Wealth Distribution |
| Date: | 2016–07–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:16/132&r=tra |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an assessment of the level of implementation of Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision in Russian Federation. The legal framework currently in place provides the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CBR) with necessary powers and responsibilities. The Russian licensing regime for banks appears exhaustive. The legal and regulatory framework provides CBR with a set of instruments and tools to ensure that the licensing process is sound. CBR also has the power to review, reject, and impose prudential conditions on any proposals to transfer significant ownership or controlling interests held directly or indirectly in existing banks to other parties. However, the legal regime for major acquisitions in Russia is found to be weak. |
| Keywords: | Banking sector;Basel Core Principles;Bank supervision;Bank resolution;Reports on the Observance of Standards and Codes;Russian Federation; |
| Date: | 2016–07–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/232&r=tra |
| By: | Ian W.H. Parry; Baoping Shang; Philippe Wingender; Nate Vernon; Tarun Narasimhan |
| Abstract: | For the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change, China pledged to reduce the carbon dioxide (CO2) intensity of GDP by 60–65 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. This paper develops a practical spreadsheet tool for evaluating a wide range of national level fiscal and regulatory policy options for reducing CO2 emissions in China in terms of their impacts on emissions, revenue, premature deaths from local air pollution, household and industry groups, and overall economic welfare. By far, carbon and coal taxes are the most effective policies for meeting environmental and fiscal objectives as they comprehensively cover emissions and have the largest tax base. |
| Keywords: | Climatic changes;China;Greenhouse gas emissions;Trading systems;Fiscal policy;Climate policy;Paris Agreement, carbon tax, China, air pollution, coal tax, emissions trading, incidence, welfare effects |
| Date: | 2016–07–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:16/148&r=tra |
| By: | Markus Brueckner; Kien Trung Nguyen |
| Abstract: | The Vietnamese economy is characterized by a high degree of international trade openness and a relatively low GDP share of net-exports. This paper examines the effect of growth in the terms of trade, and more specifically, in international commodity prices, on Vietnam's GDP per capita growth. The paper finds that, during 2000-2014, growth in the terms of trade contributed positively to Vietnam's GDP per capita growth but the effect is not large: less than one-tenth of Vietnam’s GDP per capita growth was due to growth in its terms of trade. The paper argues that the relatively small effect of growth in the terms of trade on GDP per capita growth is due to a low GDP share of net-exports. Econometric model estimates show that transitional convergence accounted for about half of Vietnam's GDP per capita growth during 2000-2014. |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2016-54&r=tra |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. European Dept. |
| Abstract: | This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Russian economy contracted by 3.7 percent in 2015 owing to falling oil prices and the quasi closure of international financial markets to Russian entities. The economic contraction is nonetheless shallower than previous recessions as a stronger external position and the authorities’ economic package cushioned the shocks, helped restore confidence and stabilized the financial system. Lower oil prices and needed fiscal adjustment will keep the economy in recession in 2016 with an expected decline in real GDP of 1.2 percent. Growth is expected to resume in 2017 and reach 1 percent, as domestic demand slowly recovers on the back of easing financial conditions and pent up demand. |
| Keywords: | Article IV consultation reports;Economic recession;External shocks;Oil prices;Sanctions;Fiscal policy;Fiscal consolidation;Fiscal reforms;Monetary policy;Banking sector;Economic indicators;Balance of payments statistics;Staff Reports;Press releases;Russian Federation; |
| Date: | 2016–07–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/229&r=tra |
| By: | Nikulin, Alexander Michailovich (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Trotsuk, Irina Vladimirovna (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Kurakin, A. A. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Sobolev, A. V. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | Currently there is no objective and reliable data on the number of Russian cooperatives, about what they do and what are the prospects of their development. According to the Minister of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, "co-operation does not perform the tasks conferred on it... There is no objective reason to talk about the architecture and operating system. Cooperatives are scattered, fragmented, chaotic and often developing completely unchecked." Meanwhile, the food security of the country, especially against the backdrop of the current food embargo requires an integrated approach. Despite the fact that this problem will be resolved, primarily due to large-scale farms, the potential for agricultural cooperation in Russia is undervalued and is used not enough. In addition, co-operation, involving a multitude of rural households, can help overcome the traditional "disease" of the Russian village: poverty, unemployment, apathy, depopulation. |
| Keywords: | Russia, cooperatives, agriculture |
| Date: | 2016–06–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:768&r=tra |
| By: | Zoltán Elekes; Balázs Lengyel |
| Abstract: | How does international trade of foreign-owned companies contribute to regional economic growth in less developed regions? Are there knowledge externalities at play between co-located trade activities of foreign and domestic firms? We address the above questions by analysing the impact of technological relatedness of regional import and export activities in manufacturing, performed by foreign and domestic companies on regional employment growth in Hungary between 2000 and 2012. Results suggest that the related variety of export activities and the relatedness between import and export products benefits regional employment growth in general, while the host economy benefits more from the technological relatedness of domestic firms’ trade activities, rather than relatedness to or between foreign firms’ activities. Employment of domestic firms benefits from the trade activity of co-located foreign firms only if it is in the same product class. |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:1620&r=tra |
| By: | Michal Brzoza-Brzezina; Marcin Kolasa; Mateusz Szetela |
| Abstract: | In early 2015, the policy (open market operations) rate of Narodowy Bank Polski was reduced to an all-time low of 1.5%. At the same time, prices of consumer goods and services dropped by 1.5% in year-on-year terms. This raised concerns that Poland might become the next country to hit the zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint on nominal interest rates. The purpose of this paper is to examine the scale of this risk and its possible consequences. According to our results, the odds of the Polish economy hitting the ZLB remain low, despite having risen considerably in 2014-15. At the same time, the consequences of such a scenario would be substantial as the ZLB would amplify the economy’s responses to adverse demand shocks and make their impact more persistent. The current level of the inflation target (2.5%) protects the Polish economy against the zero lower bound to a signifficant degree. However, its potential reduction would significantly increase the likelihood that this threat materializes. |
| Keywords: | zero lower bound, Polish monetary policy, small open economy |
| JEL: | E43 E47 E52 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgh:kaewps:2016013&r=tra |
| By: | Arkhangelskiy , Vladimir (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Shulgin, Sergei (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Efremov, Igor (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Pustovalov, Denis Nikolaevich (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The paper substantiates the methodology of construction of scenarios for the main demographic processes: fertility, mortality and migration. For the four scenarios (most likely, pessimistic, optimistic, and super optimistic) calculations of demographic trajectories are made. This paper presents the trajectory and scenarios for Russia as a whole. For derived demographic trajectories of the analysis of the population structure and describes the possible consequences of the upcoming changes. |
| Keywords: | demography, scenarios, Russia |
| Date: | 2016–06–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:761&r=tra |
| By: | Vasilyeva, O. V. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Golubchenko, I. V. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Koroteeva, Oksana (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The paper provides an assessment of the state of the integration process of new subjects of the RF in a single socio-cultural space of the Russian Federation in the context of the urgent tasks of social development of the Russian Federation. Particular attention is paid to the identification of the main problems of socio-cultural development and integration processes of new subjects of the RF in the socio-cultural sphere, the definition of effectiveness used in the areas of forms of actualization of cultural heritage and scientific and educational potential in the formation and development of the regional innovation system (RIS). In connection with the social and cultural integration of the regularities of the dynamics of the placement of settlements of new regions and ways of their optimization recommendations on solving urgent problems of integration and development of the new Russian Federation. |
| Keywords: | integration process, Russian Federation, socio-cultural space |
| Date: | 2016–06–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:766&r=tra |
| By: | Bespalov, Sergey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The paper analyzes the main trends and stages of implementation of the administrative reform in the Republic of Kazakhstan from the collapse of the USSR till 2015. It wxamines issues relating to the reorganization of the central and regional management staff, the public service and its management, as well as issues of cooperation between the state structures with the business and society. |
| Keywords: | administrative reform, Kazakhstan, public service |
| Date: | 2016–06–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:1662&r=tra |
| By: | Smolkin, Anton (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, an analysis of the key characteristics of the social status of the elderly in Russia was made. The situation of intergenerational contacts in a number of cases initially is potentially a conflict: youth is characterized by cautious, indifferent attitudes towards older people. Negative expectations of each party to help interpret any ambiguous actions of the other as a potential conflict, which exacerbates the situation, leaving no place that could be described as "neutral behavior." Restrictions on the media representatives of the third age contributes to a specific behavioral practices that give a tactical advantage, but the potential to lower the status of the elderly person and help to perpetuate negative stereotypes about old age. |
| Keywords: | elderly, Russia, age politics |
| Date: | 2016–06–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:7611&r=tra |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. European Dept. |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to determine how much of the economic slowdown of Albania is owing to cyclical conditions and how much to a reduction in potential growth. The analysis shows that average growth in 2009–14 dropped by 3.2 percentage points relative to 1997–2008, of which 2.8 percentage points are due to lower potential growth. Albania has significant potential to improve its export competitiveness. However, Albania’s competitiveness has shown narrow improvements over the past five years, with weak productivity growth and continued concentration in low-skilled labor-intensive sectors with limited value added. This paper also explores the factors underpinning Albania’s relatively low level of general government revenues. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth;Productivity;Tax policy;Tax revenues;Tax system reviews;Global competitiveness;Export performance;Selected Issues Papers;Albania;growth, capital, potential output, gdp, credit |
| Date: | 2016–06–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/143&r=tra |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. European Dept. |
| Abstract: | This paper mainly examines fiscal decentralization, credit-loss recovery, and unemployment in Croatia. The degree of expenditure and revenue decentralization in Croatia appears limited relative to its peers. At about 16 percent of general government spending, subnational government spending in Croatia is modest compared to other southeastern European countries and to the EU-28 average, and particularly low compared to the most decentralized countries in the EU. Croatia’s recovery since late 2014 has been moderate. Croatia’s recession lasted six years and was thus the longest among the new EU member states. Croatia’s structural and cyclical unemployment rates are very high, at about 11.5 percent and 5 percent respectively in 2015. |
| Keywords: | Article IV consultation reports;Fiscal policy;Government expenditures;Fiscal reforms;Tax reforms;Banking sector;Monetary policy;Exchange rate assessments;Economic indicators;Balance of payments statistics;Debt sustainability analysis;Staff Reports;Press releases;Croatia; |
| Date: | 2016–06–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/188&r=tra |
| By: | Danilov, Yury A. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA); Moscow State University - Faculty of Economics); Dustova, E.A. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | Monitoring of the Global Competitiveness of the Russian Financial Market and Analysis of Measures for Its Improvement |
| Keywords: | The paper deals with the global competitiveness of national financial markets (financial centers), its comprehensive evaluation in relation to Russia. Studied measures to improve global competitiveness, implemented competitors Russia, formulated proposals for the modernization of the Russian state policy in the financial market. |
| Date: | 2016–06–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:1664&r=tra |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an assessment of the level of implementation of the IOSCO (International Organization of Securities Commissions) objectives and principles in the Russian Federation. Some of the most recent regulatory changes in the Russian Federation are clearly based on international standards. In other areas, further initiatives will be required. These include conflicts of interest identification and improving standards of management in professional market participants. It will also require the creation of legal gateways which will enable supervisors with the necessary skills sets to provide guidance as to what the Central Bank of the Russian Federation’s (CBR) reasonable expectations are on a range of issues. CBR also faces a major challenge in enforcing the regulatory regime and will need additional resources. |
| Keywords: | Securities markets;Securities regulations;Reports on the Observance of Standards and Codes;Russian Federation; |
| Date: | 2016–07–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/233&r=tra |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. European Dept. |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to examine selected issues related to Latvia’s economic development. Latvia experienced a large macroeconomic adjustment in the aftermath of the crisis in 2007. The adjustment was characterized by internal devaluation via a combination of wage restraint and productivity gains. Latvia’s creditless recovery has taken unusually long to turn compared to international experience. Although lack of credit has not undermined recovery so far, support from the financial sector will be crucial for its continuation going forward. Emphasis on resuscitating credit growth is key to maintaining recovery. Focus should be on facilitating access to credit for small- and medium-sized enterprises and first-time borrowers, where market failures are the largest. |
| Keywords: | Industry;Labor productivity;Manufacturing sector;Exports;Credit expansion;Business cycles;Selected Issues Papers;Latvia;productivity, labor, employment, value, labor productivity |
| Date: | 2016–06–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/172&r=tra |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department |
| Abstract: | External shocks continue to shape both the outlook and policies. A weaker-than-expected external environment is hurting growth, straining the budget, and raising public debt and banking sector vulnerabilities. The authorities’ response to shocks has focused on exchange rate flexibility and unorthodox stimulus measures, although the budget deficit in 2015 was well within the program target. For 2016, the authorities are undertaking additional efforts to adhere to the program’s fiscal commitments. Financial sector vulnerabilities and risks are high and rising. Slow progress toward passing the Banking Law that aims to introduce a modern bank resolution system and increase the independence of the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic remains a concern. The change in the cabinet just six months after the elections underlines the fluidity of the country’s political situation. |
| Keywords: | Extended Credit Facility;External shocks;Fiscal policy;Fiscal consolidation;Public investment;Fiscal reforms;Monetary policy;Banking sector;Economic indicators;Letters of Intent;Debt sustainability analysis;Staff Reports;Press releases;Kyrgyz Republic; |
| Date: | 2016–06–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/186&r=tra |
| By: | Babashkin, Vladimir Valentinovich (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | To date, it found about three thousand rural settlements that existed in the territory of the Tomsk region in the period from 1939 to 1989. It is almost an exhaustive list of settlements that existed at that time in the region (as the disappearance of villages in the XVIII-XIX centuries. Was a very rare occurrence). Compiled summary table of these rural settlements, indicating the population in them in 1939, 1951, 1959, 1970, 1979, 1989. Also listed in the table the prospect of many of these rural settlements, which are used for regional planning projects in 1970 and 1978. Resulting in the course of this work, the picture of the recent past may be a factor in the evolution of the rural area in the near future. The researchers plan also includes the study of the earlier period of the region agrarian history, from the beginning of the XVII century. |
| Keywords: | rural communities, Russia, history |
| Date: | 2016–06–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:769&r=tra |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept |
| Abstract: | This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Vietnam’s economy has experienced solid growth with low inflation, reflecting policy attention to maintaining macroeconomic stability. Economic performance was robust through most of 2015, driven by rapid export growth, foreign direct investment, and strong domestic demand. Manufacturing and exports moderated near year-end, reflecting slowing external demand. Inflation declined below 1 percent in 2015 before ticking upward in early 2016 owing to higher food and administered prices. For 2016, growth is projected to moderate to about 6 percent, reflecting the adverse agriculture shock, lower external demand, and spillovers of tighter global financial conditions. |
| Keywords: | Article IV consultation reports;Economic growth;Fiscal policy;Fiscal consolidation;Fiscal reforms;Public enterprises;Monetary policy;Bank restructuring;Macroprudential Policy;Economic indicators;Balance of payments statistics;Debt sustainability analysis;Staff Reports;Press releases;Vietnam; |
| Date: | 2016–07–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/240&r=tra |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. European Dept. |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an overview of recent economic developments, outlook, and risks of the Albanian economy. Over the past few years, Albania has successfully maintained macroeconomic stability amid a turbulent external environment. A sizable fiscal consolidation is underway, and public debt is projected to start decreasing in 2016. However, growth remains sluggish due to a weak euro area recovery and risk-averse banks. The policy mix focuses on fiscal adjustment, while supporting growth through gradual monetary easing. The key policy priorities are to lower fiscal vulnerabilities through continued consolidation, revive private sector credit by cleaning up bank balance sheets, and continue implementing growth-friendly structural reforms. |
| Keywords: | Article IV consultation reports;Fiscal consolidation;Tax policy;Fiscal reforms;Electric power;Monetary policy;Bank supervision;Economic indicators;Balance of payments statistics;Letters of Intent;Debt sustainability analysis;Staff Reports;Extended arrangement reviews;Press releases;Albania;good, debt, public debt, financial stability, monetary fund |
| Date: | 2016–06–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/142&r=tra |
| By: | Tomas Meluzin (Brno University of Technology, Czech Republic); Marek Zinecker (Brno University of Technology, Czech Republic); Michal Bernard Pietrzak (Nicolaus Copernicus University, Poland); Marcin Faldzinski (Nicolaus Copernicus University, Poland); Adam P. Balcerzak (Nicolaus Copernicus University, Poland) |
| Abstract: | The growing interdependencies among capital markets are becoming significant factor affecting process of risk management both at macro and microeconomic level. Thus, the aim of the article is the analysis of interdependencies among capital markets of Germany, Poland and Baltic States. In order to measure the interdependencies DCC-GARCH model was applied. The research was conducted for the years 2004-2015. The capital market of Germany was taken as the one that has the biggest influence on the analysed Central and Eastern European markets. The conducted research enabled to determine the different nature of the interdependencies among the capital markets of Baltic States and Poland on one side and German capital market on the other side. |
| Keywords: | capital market, conditional variance, conditional correlation, DCC-GARCH model, integration |
| JEL: | G15 C58 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2016:no36&r=tra |
| By: | Racic Domagoj (Mreza Znanja d.o.o); Jadranka Svarc (Ivo Pilar Institute of Social Sciences); Hristo Hristov (European Commission/DG JRC) |
| Abstract: | The 2015 series of RIO Country Reports analyse and assess the policy and the national research and innovation system developments in relation to national policy priorities and the EU policy agenda with special focus on ERA and Innovation Union. The executive summaries of these reports put forward the main challenges of the research and innovation systems. |
| Keywords: | R&I system, R&I policy, ERA, innovation union, Semester analysis, Croatia |
| JEL: | I20 O30 Z18 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc101193&r=tra |
| By: | Barinova, V.A. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Sorokina, Alla (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Eremkin, V.A. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The paper provides classification of Russian regions by different criteria: standard of living, economic and investment potential. On the basis of these classifications an integrated typology of regions was drawn up. Authors also marked out regions, which were the most sensitive to the effects of crisis. |
| Keywords: | Russian regions, standard of living, economic and investment potential |
| Date: | 2016–05–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:1654&r=tra |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept |
| Abstract: | The People's Republic of China: Selected Issues |
| Keywords: | Transition economies;Economic growth;Monetary policy;Corporate sector;Credit expansion;Debt;Public enterprises;Fiscal reforms;Capital flows;Financial sector;Spillovers;Climate policy;Selected Issues Papers;China, People's Republic of; |
| Date: | 2016–08–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/271&r=tra |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. European Dept. |
| Abstract: | Republic of Poland: Selected Issues |
| Keywords: | Labor markets;Women;Labor policy;Productivity;Economic growth;Banking sector;Profits;Taxes;Selected Issues Papers;Poland; |
| Date: | 2016–07–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/211&r=tra |
| By: | Jelena Đurkin (Faculty of tourism and hospitality management, Opatija, University of Rijeka, Croatia); Margareta Kolarić (Faculty of tourism and hospitality management, Opatija, University of Rijeka, Croatia) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines concept and examples of diffuse and integrated hotels as a new and innovative form of accommodation introduced to Croatian tourism practice in 2014. Diffuse hotel as a term and concept was originally initiated in Italy as a form of hospitality oriented on accommodation facilities distributed in different buildings but all located in the same village/town with a common reception hall, common room for socializing and other tourist facilities. Purpose – to provide overview of the main principles of diffuse hotels and their potential benefits and to conduct analysis and comparison between goals targeted at the Croatian policy-making level and application of proposed models through (so far) registered diffuse and integrated hotels in Croatia. Methodology – Desk research of available literature, relevant websites and examples was performed and in order to analyse current situation regarding management practices and models of existing Croatian diffused/integrated hotels, case study method was used, based on available secondary qualitative and quantitative data. Findings – Results show significant discrepancy between the initial idea and aims of diffuse and integrated hotels and the actual implementation in Croatian tourism practice in terms of number and management characteristics of (currently) registered diffuse and integrated hotels. Contribution – This paper provides systematic review of the main characteristics, management practices and organizational forms related to the diffuse and integrated hotels with emphasis on their benefits in terms of sustainable tourism and local community development. Analysis provided in this paper gives new insights on the important differences between planned positive changes intended by the introduction of diffuse and integrated hotel models in Croatian practice and their recognition and interpretation in real tourism sector. |
| Keywords: | diffuse hotels, integrated hotels, management, organizational forms |
| JEL: | L83 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tho:iscthi:03&r=tra |
| By: | Marek Gruszczynski; Rafal Bilicz; Monika Kubik-Kwiatkowska; Aleksander Pernach |
| Abstract: | Paper presents three attempts to model the relationship between financial reports of the companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange and their market valuation. Main sections of the paper include: (1) overview of the contemporary issues in the ''value relevance'' studies with reference to the methodology of financial microeconometrics, (2) outcome of the research by M. Kubik-Kwiatkowska on value relevance of annual and quarterly reports, (3) results of the attempts by R. Bilicz on the association between E/P ratio and quarterly accounting data, (4) findings by A. Pernach on the relationship between ROIC or revenue and the market value. All results show that various connections between financials and valuation exist, depending on the approach. |
| Keywords: | value relevance of accounting statements, financial microeconometrics, comparative valuation |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgh:kaewps:2016014&r=tra |
| By: | Thu Trang Vuong; Ha Nguyen; Quan-Hoang Vuong |
| Abstract: | In this research, we use a survey dataset from 900 Vietnamese patients, of which 605 have health insurance, to establish empirical relations between medical expenditures, actual insurance coverage rate, residency status, socioeconomic status of patients and their perceived dis/satisfaction toward the health insurance services/values. The results show that actual insurance coverage and medical expenditures contribute to higher probabilities of satisfaction, but with coverage rate having much higher influence. In addition, threshold insurance coverage and expenditures are estimated, showing that perceptions are immensely heterogeneous regarding values of benefits, following which the poor and non-resident patients being those most efficient for the healthcare system to target and demonstrate positive policy changes. This group's threshold coverage is only 63.4%, a little above the current mean 58%. Finally, as the universal insurance and full coverage is impossible, Vietnamese health insurance policy should switch to support the most vulnerable, with more flexible health insurance and financing options as the current system has proved too rigid to be of value to the poor. |
| Keywords: | health insurance; threshold; medical expenditures; healthcare policy; Vietnam |
| JEL: | I18 I10 |
| Date: | 2016–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sol:wpaper:2013/235516&r=tra |
| By: | Claudiu Albulescu (CRIEF); Dominique P\'epin (CRIEF) |
| Abstract: | We generalize a money demand micro-founded model to explain Romanians' recent loss of interest for the euro. We show that the reason behind this loss of interest is a severe decline in the relative degree of the euro liquidity against that of the Romanian leu. |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1609.01900&r=tra |
| By: | Joong Shik Kang; Wei Liao |
| Abstract: | Real imports in China have decelerated significantly over the last two years to below 4 percent (yoy) from double-digit growth in previous years. Weaker investment, partly due to progress in rebalancing from investment to consumption, has been the main factor accounting for about 40–50 percent of slowdown during this period. Weaker exports also account for about 40 percent of slowdown, of which about a quarter is due to stronger RMB. Onshoring—substitution of imported intermediate inputs with domestic production—has not been an additional drag over this period but it continues to slow import growth at a similar pace as previous periods. There is large uncertainty about the impact of rebalancing on the import slowdown due to difficulties in identifying the counterfactual nonrebalancing path. |
| Keywords: | Imports;China;Goods;Services;Demand;Consumption;Exports;Production;Imports; Rebalancing; Exchange Rate; Onshoring |
| Date: | 2016–05–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:16/106&r=tra |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department |
| Abstract: | This Technical Assistance report examines regulation of market abuse and issuer disclosure requirements in Ukraine. The Ukrainian regulatory framework for market abuse and issuer disclosure requirements has significant gaps, whose impact is compounded by the National Securities and Stock Market Commission’s (NSSMC) lack of sufficient supervisory, investigative, and enforcement powers. This has contributed to overall lack of transparency and widespread misconduct in the market, including through issuance and trading of “fictitious†securities. To address the current challenges, the Ukrainian legislation needs to be aligned with the international standards to provide the NSSMC with sufficient means to require enhanced disclosures and combat market abuse. |
| Keywords: | Securities markets;Stock markets;Transparency;Securities legislation;Securities regulations;Technical Assistance Reports;Ukraine; |
| Date: | 2016–07–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/242&r=tra |
| By: | Paul Cashin; Kamiar Mohaddes; Mehdi Raissi |
| Abstract: | China's GDP growth slowdown and a surge in global financial market volatility could both adversely affect an already weak global economic recovery. To quantify the global macroeconomic consequences of these shocks, we employ a GVAR model estimated for 26 countries/regions over the period 1981Q1 to 2013Q1. Our results indicate that (i) a one percent permanent negative GDP shock in China (equivalent to a one-off one percent growth shock) could have significant global macroeconomic repercussions, with world growth reducing by 0.23 percentage points in the short-run; and (ii) a surge in global financial market volatility could translate into a fall in world economic growth of around 0.29 percentage points, but it could also have negative short-run impacts on global equity markets, oil prices and long-term interest rates. |
| Keywords: | China’s slowdown, global financial market volatility, international business cycle, and Global VAR |
| JEL: | C32 E32 F44 O53 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2016-57&r=tra |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses key findings of the Financial System Stability Assessment of Russian Federation. The Russian banking system is weak and likely to need additional capital. Even in the baseline scenario, certain banks will need new capital owing to low profitability and increasing credit losses. The required resources increase in the stress scenarios, but remain manageable. Bank regulation and supervision have greatly improved in recent years, but there is more to be done. Key areas for improvement include related party lending, country and transfer risks, operational risks, and supervisory interactions with external auditors. In addition, the implementation of risk-based supervision is also in progress. |
| Keywords: | Financial system stability assessment;Economic recession;Banking sector;Liquidity management;Stress testing;Bank supervision;Bank regulations;Anti-money laundering;Combating the financing of terrorism;Macroprudential Policy;Capital markets;Insurance;Economic indicators;Russian Federation; |
| Date: | 2016–07–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/231&r=tra |
| By: | Min Liao; Tao Sun; Jinfan Zhang |
| Abstract: | China’s financial system has become very large, diversified, and interconnected. This changing financial landscape could potentially produce systemic risks, arising primarily from growing financial interconnectedness. The paper argues that, to address the potential systemic risks, Chinese authorities should further strengthen internal coordination, notably by institutionalizing better information collection and sharing among regulators, as well as enhancing coordinated and comprehensive analysis of systemic risk. |
| Keywords: | Financial sector;China;Stock markets;Housing;Markets;Shadow banking;Financial institutions;Economic integration;Systemic risk assessment;financial landscape, risks, policy coordination |
| Date: | 2016–08–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:16/181&r=tra |
| By: | Monika Banaszewska (Poznan University of Economics and Business); Ivo Bischoff (University of Kassel) |
| Abstract: | We provide an empirical study analysing the distribution of EU funds among 2478 Polish municipalities in the period of the multiannual financial framework 2007–2013. We find EU funds to be concentrated in smaller municipalities and economically weak sub-regions. Expenditures of EU funds per capita do not decrease in the municipalities’ fiscal capacity. This indicates that co-funding restrictions imposed by the EU did not prevent fiscally weak municipalities from attracting EU funds. Our primary focus rests on the question whether regional governments use their prominent role in the allocation process for EU funds to support their own political self-interest. Difference-in-difference estimations show that the answer is affirmative: Municipalities aligned with the regional government spend more EU funds per capita than nonaligned municipalities. Furthermore, we find support for the swing-district hypothesis: EU funds per capita decrease in the vote-share differential between the two leading parties. |
| Keywords: | EU, Cohesion funds, Poland, local government, party alignment, swing districts, vertical grants |
| JEL: | D72 H77 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:201618&r=tra |