nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2016‒08‒07
48 papers chosen by
J. David Brown
United States Census Bureau

  1. The Divergent Postcommunist Paths to Democracy and Economic Freedom By Simeon Djankov; Owen Hauck
  2. Vulnerability to Poverty: Tajikistan during and after the Global Financial Crisis By Ira N. Gang; Ksennia Gatskova; John Landon Lane; Myeong-Su Yun
  3. Industrialization in China By Brandt, Loren; Ma, Debin; Rawski, Thomas
  4. China's New Lost Generation: The Casualty of China's Economic Transformation By Gary Jefferson
  5. Comparative advantage of the EU in global value chains: How important and efficient are new EU members in transition? By Gurgul, Henryk; Lach, Łukasz
  6. Evolution of bankruptcy institution: from insolvency of state-owned enterprises towards electronic SRO trading facilities By Radygin Alexandr; Apevalova Elena; Polezhaeva Natalia
  7. Anticompetitive Practices in Romania, during 2012-2013 By Claudia BALAN
  8. Migration processes in Russia in 2015 By Karachurina Lilia
  9. Testing for Financial Market Integration of the Chinese Market with the US Market By Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser; Mustafa, Alan
  10. Potential carbon emission abatement cost recovery from carbon emission trading in China: an estimation of industry sector By Ke Wang
  11. Socio-Economic Predictors of Student Mobility By Ilya Prakhov; Maria Bocharova
  12. Academic Inbreeding and Research Productivity Of Russian Faculty Members By Olga Gorelova; Andrey Lovakov
  13. The standard of living in Russia in 2015 By Izryadnova Olga
  14. The End of Cheap Labour: Are Foreign Investors Leaving China? By Donaubauer, Julian; Dreger, Christian
  15. Decomposition of Russia’s GDP growth rates, 2015–2016 By Drobyshevsky Sergey; Kazakova Maria
  16. Intergovernmental fiscal relations and subnational finance in Russia in 2015 By Mamedov Arseny; Fomina Elena; Belev Sergey
  17. Financing of Social Protection Systems. Budget Funds for Social Economy By Ana-Alexandrina POPESCU
  18. Price dynamics on residential property in Russia in 2015 By Malginov Georgiy; Sternik G.
  19. Operational performance management of the power industry: A distinguishing analysis between effectiveness and efficiency By Ke Wang; Chia-Yen Lee; Jieming Zhang; Yi-Ming Wei
  20. China’s Foreign Investment By McGrattan, Ellen R.
  21. Housing mortgage lending in Russia in 2015 By Zadonsky Georgy
  22. Russian industrial enterprises in 2015 (on the basis of business surveys) By Tsukhlo Sergey
  23. Unemployment Duration and Job-Match Quality in Urban China: The Dynamic Impact of 2008 Labor Contract Law By You, Jing; Wang, Shaoyang
  24. Emissions trading and abatement cost savings: An estimation of China's thermal power industry By Ke Wang; Xian Zhang; Xueying Yu; Yi-Ming Wei; Bin Wang
  25. From planning to chaos to market: Ethnic inequality in Bulgaria By Vigile Marie Fabella; Georgi Kocharkov
  26. The situation in the public sector and privatization in Russia in 2015 By Radygin Alexandr; Malginov Georgiy
  27. Deconstructing Informality: A Response to Vulnerability or an Optimal Choice? By Song, Lina; Appleton, Simon; Liang, Zhe
  28. Investment in fixed assets in Russia in 2015 By Izryadnova Olga
  29. Challenges facing higher education in Russia in 2015 By Klyachko Tatiana
  30. Firm-level productivity and international expansion of firms from the Lodz Voivodeship By Piotr Gabrielczak; Tomasz Serwach
  31. Views on the Method of Calculation of the Costs of Activities and Coordinates its Implementation By Dana SISEA; Valentin SCARLAT
  32. Financial Markets and Financial Institutions in Russia in 2015 By Abramov Alexander
  33. Russia’s State Budget in 2015 By Mamedov Arseny; Fomina Elena; Belev Sergey
  34. Minimum Wage Violation in Central and Eastern Europe By Goraus-Tanska, Karolina; Lewandowski, Piotr
  35. The situation in the science and innovation sphere in Russia in 2015 By Dezhina Irina
  36. Russia’s participation in WTO trade disputes By Knobel Alexander; Baeva Marina
  37. Reducing Inequality Makes Societies Stronger By Ciprian ALEXANDRU; Nicoleta CARAGEA
  38. Russia’s Monetary Policy in 2015 By Bozhechkova Alexandra; Trunin Pavel; Kiyutsevskaya Anna
  39. Import substitution in the wake of food embargo By Uzun Vasily; Shagaida Natalia; Gataulina Ekaterina; Yanbykh Renata
  40. Where is the future of China’s biogas? Review, forecast, and policy implications By Lei Gu; Yi-Xin Zhang; Jian-Zhou Wang; Gina Chen; Hugh Battye
  41. Municipal and subfederal loan market By Shadrin Artem
  42. Russia’s Foreign trade in 2015 By Volovik Nadezhda
  43. Political Turnover, Ownership, and Corporate Investment By Cao, Jerry; Julio, Brandon; Leng, Tiecheng; Zhou, Sili
  44. Do long term interest rates drive GDP and inflation in small open economies? Evidence from Poland By Grzegorz Wesołowski
  45. Patterns of Employment in Romania – Future Challenges By Diana Ioana POPA; Nicoleta CARAGEA
  46. Industrial production dynamics in particular sectors of Russian industry By Idrisov Georgy; Kaukin Andrey; Ponomarev Yuri
  47. The market of land plots in Russia in 2015 By Zadonsky Georgy
  48. Military economics and military reform in Russia in 2015 By Zatsepin Vasily; Tsymbal Vitaly

  1. By: Simeon Djankov (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Owen Hauck (Peterson Institute for International Economics)
    Abstract: This paper presents evidence from 29 postcommunist countries that the economic transition has been more successful than the political transformation in the quarter century since the fall of the Berlin Wall. The adoption of strong parliamentarian systems has countered the adverse effects of religious and imperial history on economic evolution. As a result, the divergence in democracy and political rights is 4 to 5 times larger than the divergence in the path toward economic freedom and ease of doing business. Democracy is not harder to predict than economic freedom—history and ethnicity predict it well. But recent authoritarian regressions in Hungary and Poland, countries with successful economic reforms and strong parliamentarian systems, present a new challenge to researchers.
    Keywords: Economic Freedom, Ease of Doing Business, Democracy
    JEL: P26 P52
    Date: 2016–07
  2. By: Ira N. Gang (Rutgers University); Ksennia Gatskova (IOS-Regensburg); John Landon Lane (Rutgers University); Myeong-Su Yun (Inha University)
    Abstract: We examine vulnerability to poverty in Tajikistan during the global financial crisis, focusing on the roles played by international migration and remittances, using a formal, practical, and easily decomposable vulnerability measure. Our strategy is to estimate a Markov transition probability matrix with the aim of identifying the vulnerability of households to poverty. Importantly, by introducing the index of vulnerability as the weighted probability of a household falling into poverty over a given time horizon, we can use the estimated dynamics to assess the short, medium and long-run vulnerability. We find that during the “recession transition” almost all households were vulnerable to poverty while almost none were during the “recovery period”. Overall, urban households, more educated households and households receiving remittances from international labor migrants were less vulnerable to poverty. While households with a current or very recent migrant did not have a significantly lower measured vulnerability to poverty, those households receiving remittances from migrants had a lower vulnerability to poverty. Our findings stress that the international labor migration from Tajikistan may not be considered as a reliable means of welfare security for the households because external economic shocks and internal political decisions may negatively affect Russian economy and lead to a reduction of remittances flow to Tajikistan.
    Keywords: mobility measurement, vulnerability, poverty, inequality, Tajikistan
    JEL: J60 D63 I32
    Date: 2016–07–29
  3. By: Brandt, Loren (University of Toronto); Ma, Debin (London School of Economics); Rawski, Thomas (University of Pittsburgh)
    Abstract: We see industrialization in China the last 150 years as an ongoing process through which firms acquired and deepened manufacturing capabilities. Two factors have been consistently important to this process: openness to the international economy and domestic market liberalization. Openness and market liberalization are usually complementary: One without the other can seriously limit benefits. For a latecomer like China, modern industry initially finds its most success in more labor-intensive products that require only modest capabilities. Gradual upgrading entails the shift into more skilled-labor and capital-intensive products and processes. China's experience shows that government can both support and obstruct this process. Our review of long-term data shows that i) China's industrial growth rate has consistently exceeded that of Japan, India and Russia/USSR not just in recent decades but throughout most of the 20th century; ii) China's shift from textiles and other light industry toward defense-related industries began before rather than after 1949, as did the geographic spread of industry beyond the initial centers in the Lower Yangzi and the Northeast (formerly Manchuria) regions; iii) the state sector has consistently been a brake on industrial upgrading, highlighting the significance of current reform initiatives in determining China's future industrial path.
    Keywords: China, industrial development, structural change
    JEL: O N
    Date: 2016–07
  4. By: Gary Jefferson (Brandeis University)
    Abstract: China’s surge into global middle-income status over the space of three decades has been spectacular. However, a potentially large and burdensome cost has been imposed on a generation of adolescents and young adults who abandoned the countryside, and with it access to basic education, in order to seek the anticipated advantages of jobs in the country’s burgeoning urban-industrial sector. This large swath of off-farm migrants transformed China. It propelled China to the status of the “world’s factory” and created the scale and accumulated learning-by-doing enabling China’s transition to a “knowledge economy” that no longer depends on the labor of China’s new “Lost Generation.” As the Lost Generation and its left-behind children, who suffer from a chronic lack of schooling, thicken the lower tail of China’s income distribution, it may be the rising, prosperous urban middle class that ultimately incurs the social, economic, and political challenges associated with China’s generation of off-farm migrant households once essential for launching China’s economic ascent.
    JEL: J21 J24 J31 O15 O33
    Date: 2016–07
  5. By: Gurgul, Henryk; Lach, Łukasz
    Abstract: We suggest original modifications and extensions of the recently presented methodological developments in ex-post accounting framework in global value chains in order to obtain empirical results both for the analyzed group of ten CEE economies as well as at a country-and-sector-specific level. The empirical results confirm that the role of the selected CEE economies in transition in creating value added with respect to the total value added in the European Union in the GVC framework was biggest in the cases of agriculture-, wood-products-, metal-production, and travel-and-tourism-related sectors. We also found that, after two decades of transition, the measures of productivity in the examined economies in 2009 were still much lower as compared to the EU average for most of the sectors. Moreover, in the transition period, these indexes were increasing, especially after EU accession. In contrary, after two decades of transition, the measures of capital efficiency in the ten CEE economies in 2009 were comparable to the EU average for most of the sectors. Moreover, during this period, the growth rates of these indexes were, in general, positive. However, their growth rates dropped after EU accession.
    Keywords: value added; productivity; capital efficiency; CEE economies; international input-output matrices; transition
    JEL: C67 D57 F1
    Date: 2016–07–01
  6. By: Radygin Alexandr (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Apevalova Elena (RANEPA); Polezhaeva Natalia (RANEPA)
    Abstract: Bankruptcy legislation in the post-Soviet Russia was for the first time introduced in 1992 by the Executive Order of the President “On Measures for the Support and Rehabilitation of Insolvent State-Owned Enterprises (Bankrupt Debtors) and the Application of Special Proceedings to Them” No. 623 of June 14, 1992, which stipulated grounds for liquidation of enterprises, special liquidation proceedings such as reorganization, rehabilitation, direct administration of the enterprise, independent management, auctions for sale of enterprise, and other provisions concerning bankruptcy.
    Keywords: Russian economy, bankruptcy, public enterprises
    JEL: G33 G38 P2 P31
    Date: 2016
  7. By: Claudia BALAN (Student, Masters Financial Management, Faculty of Economics, Ecological University of Bucharest)
    Abstract: At national level, but also at European level, the market economy has the competition as the main regulating force. Of course, there are practices that distort this force of the economy, unfair practices (anticompetitive deals and the abuse of dominant position) that worsen the competitive environment. Romania, as a European state, is guided to comply with the competition policy. We, as European consumers, are involved directly in maintaining the internal balance because the anticompetitive practices are affecting us directly. The Romanian state needs, like any other state, competitiveness and performance. But can the rules of the competition policy ensure the success of an economic market given that a market economy without competition is unthinkable?
    Keywords: competition, anticompetitive practices, Competition Council
    JEL: D40 L40
    Date: 2016–04
  8. By: Karachurina Lilia (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: In January-November 2015 compared to the corresponding period of the previous year, Russia’s positive migration balance moved down by around 20% and came to 214,900 persons. Negative migration balance resulted not so much from the contraction of the number of inflows as could be figured by the current Russia’s economic situation as from the 15 percent growth of outflows. Monthly/quarterly registration posted positive balance of the number of inflows solely in Q1, later there was balance and in Q4 there was an obvious decrease. Evidently, by the end of the year previously planned and finally implemented resettlements into Russia as well as statistical lag were “eroded” by the ruble devaluation and general economic recession. In the course of the year, the outflows from Russia demonstrated steady downward trend against the corresponding indices of 2014. As a result, Russia’s net migration starting with Q2 2015 was constantly less than compared to the same period of 2014. In November negative migration balance came to around 30 p.p.
    Keywords: Russian economy, internal migration, long-term migration, external labor migration
    JEL: J61 J62 F22 J11
    Date: 2016
  9. By: Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser; Mustafa, Alan
    Abstract: This paper investigates empirically whether or not the financial market of China is integrated with the financial market of the US. Unlike most previous studies on financial market integration, we allow for asymmetry in our investigation. The underlying data is transformed into cumulative partial sums by using a software component that is created by authors in Octave language. By estimating the asymmetric generalized impulse response functions we find that the financial markets of these two biggest economies in the world are linked interactively when the markets are falling. However, no significant impact between the two underlying markets are found when markets are rising. These results support the view that allowing for asymmetry in financial markets is important and it has crucial repercussions for both policy makers and investors.
    Keywords: Financial Market Integration, Asymmetry, Impulses, US, China, Octave
    JEL: C3 G11 G15
    Date: 2016
  10. By: Ke Wang
    Abstract: Purpose This study provides an estimation of CO2 emission abatement costs in China's industry sector during the period of 2006-2010, and additionally provide an ex-post estimation of CO2 abatement cost savings that would be realized if carbon emission permits trading among different industry sectors of 30 provinces in China during the same period was allowed, in order to answer the question that whether the industrial carbon emission abatement cost can (partially) be recovered from carbon emission trading in China. Design/methodology/approach The joint production framework associated with the environmental technology is utilized for formulating the models for estimating abatement costs and simulating emission permits trading scheme. Several Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) based models that could deal with both the desirable and undesirable outputs with in the above framework is utilized for abatement cost saving estimation. The weak disposability assumption and variable returns to scale assumption are applied in the modelling. Findings In China's industry sector, during 2006-2010: (i) The estimated CO2 emission abatement cost is 1842 billion yuan which accounts for 2.45% of China¡¯s total industrial output value; (ii) The emission abatement cost saving from emission permits trading would be 315 billion yuan, which accounts for 17.12% of emission opportunity abatement cost. (iii) Additional 1065.95 million tons of CO2 emission reductions would be realized from emission permits trading, and this accounts for 4.75% of the total industrial CO2 emissions. Research limitations/implications The estimation is implemented at the regional level, i.e., the emission permits trading subjects are the whole industry sectors in different Chinese provinces, because of the data limitation in this study. Further estimation could be implemented at the enterprise level in order to provide a deeper insight into the abatement cost recovery from emission permits trading. Practical implications The estimation models and calculation process introduced in this study could be applied for evaluating the efficiency and effectiveness of pollutant emission permits trading schemes from the perspective that whether these market-based abatement policy instruments help to realize the potential abatement cost savings. Originality/value To the best of our knowledge, no study has provided the estimation of CO2 emission abatement cost and the estimation of CO2 abatement cost saving effect from emission permits trading for China¡¯s industry sector. This study provides the first attempt to fill this research gap.
    JEL: Q54 Q40
    Date: 2016–06–01
  11. By: Ilya Prakhov (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Maria Bocharova (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper analyses the determinants of student mobility under the unified system of admission in Russia and evaluates the barriers which still limit educational mobility. It is argued that even under the Unified State Examination (USE) and the decreased transaction costs of applying to universities, student mobility is directed towards more developed regional educational markets and richer regions, but is still limited due to the financial constraints in the absence of the additional student support. Russia is a unique case, because it consists of regions with a high variation in socio-economic development and has local higher education markets with different levels of competition between universities. This study shows the importance of the institutional characteristics of regions in student mobility
    Keywords: educational mobility, student mobility, university choice, the Unified State Exam
    JEL: I21 I23 I24
    Date: 2016
  12. By: Olga Gorelova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Andrey Lovakov (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The literature on the consequences of academic inbreeding shows ambiguous results: some papers show that inbreeding positively influences research productivity, measured in the quantity and quality of publications, while others show the opposite effect. There are contradictory results both in studies of different countries and within countries. Such a variety of results makes it impossible to transfer the findings from one academic system to another, and in Russia this problem has been under explored. This paper focuses on the relationship between inbreeding and publication activity among Russian faculty members. The results, using Russian data from the Changing Academic Profession survey, showed no substantial effect of academic inbreeding on research productivity. Inbred and non-inbred faculty members do not differ substantially in terms of the probability of having publications, or how many, although for inbreds such probability is slightly higher. These results are robust for different operationalizations of inbreeding and measures of publication activity. However the absence of significant differences in the number of publications may not mean the absence of a difference in their quality. The possible explanations and limitations of the standard measures of research productivity are discussed.
    Keywords: Academic profession, Academic inbreeding, Research productivity, Faculty members, Russian higher education, Changing Academic Profession
    JEL: I23 I28
    Date: 2016
  13. By: Izryadnova Olga (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: Over the course of 2015, the average money income in nominal terms increased by 10.1%, to Rb 30,311 per capita. Although the year 2015 saw a rise in the growth rate of nominal money incomes relative to 2014, a 12.9% increase in consumer prices caused a sharp decline in the indicators of the standard of living in real terms. In 2015, the real disposable incomes of the population, real wages, and the real size of allotted pension amounted to 96.0%, 90.5% and 96.2% respectively, of their values in 2014
    Keywords: Russian economy, living standard, money income, spending of the population
    JEL: I31 I32
    Date: 2016
  14. By: Donaubauer, Julian (Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg); Dreger, Christian (DIW Berlin)
    Abstract: China's government is promoting the shift towards a consumption-based economy since a few years. The explicit goal to significantly raise the percentage of wages in the national household income is integral part of the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-15). The changes in the economic strategy are likely to affect the attractiveness of the country to foreign investors. In this paper, we raise the hypothesis that soaring wages negatively affect FDI inflows to China and alter the distribution of FDI over Chinese provinces. In addition, low-wage countries in the geographical surrounding might benefit from the changed direction of FDI inflows. By performing panel models with spatial effects for both Chinese provinces and developing ASEAN countries, regional dependencies are explicitly addressed. We provide strong and robust evidence that the wage increases change the distribution of FDI within China. In addition, we show that the changes in China's economic strategy improve the chances of its low-income neighbours to attract FDI.
    Keywords: foreign direct investment, Chinese economic transformation, spatial correlation
    JEL: F15 F21 F63 E22
    Date: 2016–07
  15. By: Drobyshevsky Sergey (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Kazakova Maria (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: Russia’s officials made multiple statements in 2015, saying Russia had hit the bottom of its recessionary valley. For example, a few top members of Russia’s government and representatives of the Russian business community (in particular, First Vice-Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov and Sberbank CEO/Chairman German Gref) said in May 2015 the current crisis in Russia had reached its peak and the economy was expected to see some recovery. In late 2015, Russia’s Minister of Economic Development Alexey Ulyukaev said the recession was over and the bottom was hit. At the same time, Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development (MED) and some other international organizations – such as Bank of America, JP Morgan, IMF and World Bank – upgraded (not for long though) their 2015 forecast for Russia. The Ministry of Economic Development made similar statements, in particular in July and October 2015. Andrei Klepach, Chief Economist of Vnesheconombank, questioned these statements, noting in late August that the bottom was still to be reached, and he expected Russia to continue facing a downturn in investment and construction sectors, while budget and consumer demand ceased to be the drivers of positive growth rates in economy. As early as December, Herman Gref predicted that Russia’s economy would face a downturn in 2016, and then it might “decay” unless across-the-board reforms are undertaken
    Keywords: Russian economy, GDP
    JEL: F10 F14 F15 F40
    Date: 2016
  16. By: Mamedov Arseny (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Fomina Elena (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Belev Sergey (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: In 2015, the share of subnational budget expenditure of the Russian Federation consolidated budget dropped considerably from 39.7% in 2014 to 32.1% in 2015 (excluding expenditure for the Crimean Federal Okrug). The share of tax revenues shrank to a lesser extent, from 32.6% to 28.6%, during the same period. The decline in the share of subnational budget expenditure of the total volume of Russia’s consolidated budget expenditure is explained largely by faster-than-normal growth of the federal budget expenditure (by 5.6% in nominal terms). The federal budget expenditure increased first of all for ‘General National Issues’ (by 18.6%), ‘National Defense’ (by 28.3%), ‘Housing and Utilities’ (by 20.5%), ‘Social Policy’ (by 23.5%), ‘Municipal and Public Debt Servicing’ (by 24.8%). Subnational budget expenditure increased in the period under review by 1.4% (excluding expenditure for the Crimean Federal Okrug).
    Keywords: Russian economy, fiscal relations, subnational finance, consolidated budget, debt policy
    JEL: H77 H76 H74 H71
    Date: 2016
  17. By: Ana-Alexandrina POPESCU (Faculty of Economics, Ecological University of Bucharest)
    Abstract: In the present article I propose to address some of the problems of financing social protection systems and we chose to analyze the partial financing of budgetary funds of a non-profit organization, funds which they can use in order to continue and develop further projects within social economy. The main purpose of the social economy, compared with the market economy order is not making profit, but is to improve living conditions and delivering new for disadvantaged or vulnerable part of. Case study exposed, reveals how an NGO can to keep the values which characterize - transparency, responsibility, accountability, integrity, solidarity, courage, justice, democracy - through economic power and it can get during its evolution. I will present a few milestones of financing social protection systems in case the Romanian Association for Transparency has managed to highlight the social economy structures in Romania. This study is intended to be a research paper in order to analyze means of obtaining allocations of funds for development organizations, organizations that play an important role in supporting government policies. We presented the sources of funding that an association may use in order to accomplish the objectives and to capitalize know-how, while continuing to engage in social life, making her known values and Principe. The use of budgetary funds and the non-refundable but is an alternative to obtaining a possibility of self-financing organization and implementation of social policies and processes in different systems of social protection financing.
    Keywords: financing systems social protection, financing the social economy, the use of budgetary funds in self-financing organization
    JEL: G28 H51 P51
    Date: 2016–04
  18. By: Malginov Georgiy (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Sternik G. (Plekhanov REA)
    Abstract: The paper deals with the issues of price dynamics on residential property on secondary and primary markets
    Keywords: Russian economy, residential property
    JEL: K11 H82 L32 L33
    Date: 2016
  19. By: Ke Wang; Chia-Yen Lee; Jieming Zhang; Yi-Ming Wei (Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEP), Beijing Institute of Technology)
    Abstract: The trend toward a more competitive electricity market has led to efforts by the electric power industry to develop advanced efficiency evaluation models that adapt to market behavior operations management. The promotion of the operational performance management of the electric power industry plays an important role in China's efforts toward energy conservation, emission control and sustainable development. Traditional efficiency measures are not able to distinguish sales effects from productive efficiency and thus are not sufficient for measuring the operational performance of an electricity generation system for achieving its specific market behavior operations management goals, such as promoting electricity sales. Effectiveness measures are associated with the capacity of an electricity generation system to adjust its input resources that influence its electricity generation and, thus, the capacity to match the electricity demand. Therefore, the effectiveness measures complement the efficiency measures by capturing the sales effect in the operational performance evaluation. This study applies a newly developed data envelopment analysis-based effectiveness measurement to evaluate the operational performance of the electric power industry in China's 30 provincial regions during the 2006-2010 periods. Both the efficiency and effectiveness of the electricity generation system in each region are measured, and the associated electricity sales effects and electricity reallocation effects are captured. Based on the results of the effectiveness measures, the alternative operational performance improvement strategies and potentials in terms of input resources savings and electricity generation adjustments are proposed. The empirical results indicate that the current interregional electricity transmission and reallocation efforts are effective in China overall, and a moderate increase in electricity generation with a view to improving the effect on sales is more crucial for improving effectiveness.
    Keywords: China; Data envelopment analysis (DEA); Electricity generation system; Electricity reallocation; Electricity sales effect
    JEL: Q54 Q40
    Date: 2016–04–25
  20. By: McGrattan, Ellen R. (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)
    Abstract: Foreign investment into China has surged since the 1990s and become a topic of keen interest for both scholars and the media. While China has encouraged this investment with the goal of catching up technologically, close analysis reveals that only a small share of its foreign investment comes from the United States and other nations with the technology China seeks. Instead, inward foreign direct investment flows predominantly from Hong Kong and a few Caribbean nations. Two key factors behind this: China’s tax policy toward foreign investment and its “industrial” policies to encourage development and growth. Specifically, preferential tax treatment for foreign investment leads many Chinese businesses and households to “round-trip” investments; and policies requiring joint ventures between Chinese and foreign high-tech companies—while benefiting China enormously—discourage investment by multinationals from advanced countries.
    Date: 2016–07–26
  21. By: Zadonsky Georgy (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: In 2015, according to the data released by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, credit institutions extended 691,943 housing mortgage loans (HML) to the tune of Rb 1,147.339bn, which constituted 68.32% of the total amount of HML extended in 2014 and 65.04% in monetary terms. In the same period, 706,786 housing loans were originated totaling to Rb 1,168.222bn, which in quantity of loans comes to 66.71% and in monetary terms 64.14% of the extended loans.
    Keywords: Russian economy, mortgage market, new housing construction
    JEL: R14 R21 R52 G21 K11 L74 L85
    Date: 2016
  22. By: Tsukhlo Sergey (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This section is prepared using the data of monthly business surveys conducted by the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy (IEP) among managers of industrial enterprises since September 1992. The surveys are conducted on the basis of the European harmonized methodology and encompass the entire territory of the Russian Federation. The size of the panel is around 1,000 enterprises, which employ over 13% of the total number of employed in industry. The panel is biased towards large enterprises in each of the selected branches. The rate of response to questionnaires ranges from 70% to 75%. The business survey questionnaire contains quite a small number of questions (not more than 15-20). They are of qualitative rather than quantitative nature. The simple formulation of questions and answers allows the respondents to fill in the forms quickly and without consulting any documentation. It is essential that the respondent at each enterprise is an executive of the highest level possible who is fully aware of the situation at the enterprise and is directly involved in its management
    Keywords: Russian economy, industry, recession
    JEL: C53 E37 L21 L52
    Date: 2016
  23. By: You, Jing; Wang, Shaoyang
    Abstract: We assess the unemployment duration-dependent impact of the 2008 Labor Contract Law on job finding probabilities and subsequently job-match quality, including job security, wages and employer-provided social insurance. Dynamic endogeneity underlying individuals’ sequential labor market outcomes is addressed by sharp regression discontinuity and correlated individual unobservables settling into non-parametric joint distribution. The law protracts employment only in the short-term. After job match, the law stabilizes employment and increases wages and insurance coverage, all in the short-term with substantial differences between urban locals and migrant workers and heterogeneity in gender.
    Keywords: unemployment, wage, social insurance, regression-discontinuity design, China
    JEL: C41 J64 J65 O53
    Date: 2016–07–28
  24. By: Ke Wang; Xian Zhang; Xueying Yu; Yi-Ming Wei (Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEP), Beijing Institute of Technology); Bin Wang
    Abstract: This study evaluates the efficiency advantage of a market-based emission permit trading policy instrument over a command and control policy instrument in the case of China's thermal power industry. We estimate the unrealized gains achievable through emission permit trading with an optimization frontier analysis. These unrealized gains include potential recoveries of electricity generation through eliminating spatial and temporal regulatory rigidity on emission permit trading. The results of an ex post estimation during 2006 and 2010 indicate a potential gain of 8.48% increase in electricity generation if both the intra- and inter-period regulatory rigidities CO2 emission permits trading had been eliminated. In addition, if the permit trading systems for three air pollutions, CO2, SO2, and NOx, had been completely integrated, a positive net synergy effect of 1.43% increase in electricity generation could have been secured. The unrealized gains identified in this study provide supports for establishing a nationwide emission permit trading system in China.
    Keywords: Data envelopment analysis, CO2 emissions, Regulatory rigidity, Synergy effect, Tradable permits
    JEL: Q54 Q40
    Date: 2016–07–01
  25. By: Vigile Marie Fabella (Department of Economics, University of Konstanz, Germany); Georgi Kocharkov (Department of Economics, University of Konstanz, Germany)
    Abstract: We document changes in relative earnings of the ethnic Turkish workers in Bulgaria through the country’s transition from planning to markets. Using data from four periods: pre-transition communist era (late 1980s), early transition years (early 1990s), late transition years (early 2000s), and post-transition (late 2000s), we find that the level of raw ethnic inequality (measured as earnings differences between Turkish and Bulgarian workers) increased immediately after the regime change and plateaued throughout the course of transition. Ethnic inequality measures adjusted for observable characteristics follow a similar pattern but post-transitional differences between ethnic groups disappear. Changes over time in the ethnic earnings gaps differ for men and women. The raw and adjusted male ethnic gaps increased steadily during transition years but dropped post-transition, while the raw female ethnic gap fluctuated across the four periods. The adjusted female ethnic gap disappeared completely in the postransitional years. We identify different sources of the changes in the level of ethnic inequality, such as changes in the labor market characteristics and in the wage structure. Evidence suggests that the decline in the relative earnings of Turkish men was due primarily to the widening of the wage structure. Turkish working women improved their relative standing mainly from more favorable changes in labor market characteristics. These changes were only partially due to a selection in labor force participation.
    Keywords: Earnings differentials, Ethnicity, Gender, Transition, Bulgaria, Turkish Minority
    JEL: J15 J70 P20 P30
    Date: 2016–06–19
  26. By: Radygin Alexandr (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Malginov Georgiy (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: The paper deals with the issues of public sector and privatization in Russia in 2015.
    Keywords: Russian economy, public sector, privatization
    JEL: K11 H82 L32 L33
    Date: 2016
  27. By: Song, Lina (University of Nottingham); Appleton, Simon (University of Nottingham); Liang, Zhe (University of Nottingham)
    Abstract: The rapid growth of informal employment in China in recent decades has attracted attention, but to understand its implications, the concept of informality must be deconstructed. We reclassify employment status into three categories: salaried workers who have long-term contracts; the self-employed; and causal workers without long term contracts (working in either the formal or the informal sector). The monthly earnings of the self-employed are much (47%) higher than those casual employees. Self-employment is not necessarily a misfortune and the flexibility it provides may be optimal for some kinds of workers. For example, the self-employed are more likely to be disabled and to have young families. Institutionally, it is still difficult for casual workers and most rural-urban migrant workers to embark on business ownership. Although a large group of rural-urban migrants are employees with longer term contracts, their rural registration (hukou) means they lack the social protection of urban residents. The labour force with rural hukou is more likely to fall into the informal sector and, within that sector, is most likely to be engaged in casual labouring jobs. Policies to support small businesses may be warranted given the detrimental impacts of informality on casual workers. Experimental interventions could be tried along the lines of those used in Peru to provide funds to support entrepreneurial activities by this group to lift themselves out of a poverty trap into more sustainable employment. Skill training, encouragement for innovation, tax credits and reducing institutional constraints on starting up small business should be all considered.
    Keywords: informality, vulnerability, self-employment, casual labour, China
    JEL: J24 J46 J48
    Date: 2016–07
  28. By: Izryadnova Olga (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: The crisis of 2008-2009 determined main structural changes in the formation of investment resources during post-crisis period up to 2015. Easing of economic growth rates was accompanied by a contraction of the share of gross savings in GDP from 30.2% in 2008 to 22.9% in 2014 and 23.1% in 2015. During 2010-2013 investment in fixed assets constituted around 20.0%. In 2014, owing to a reduction of revenues in the economy the share of investment in fixed assets fell to 17.8% and in 2015 came to 18.1% of GDP.
    Keywords: Russian economy, fixed investment
    JEL: E20 E21 E22 E60
    Date: 2016
  29. By: Klyachko Tatiana (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: The following public’s common perception of higher education continues to be prevalent in Russia: the quality of higher education keeps deteriorating; higher education fails to meet the requirements of the labor market; higher education graduates do not work in jobs strictly or closely related to their degrees or major; there is an oversupply of students in the country; there is need to train specialists with secondary vocational education and blue collar workers that are in shortage.
    Keywords: Russian economy, higher education, vocational education, job skills
    JEL: I21 I23 I25
    Date: 2016
  30. By: Piotr Gabrielczak (Faculty of Economics and Sociology, University of Lodz); Tomasz Serwach (Faculty of Economics and Sociology, University of Lodz)
    Abstract: The paper investigates the link between firm-level productivity and internationalization (through exports, imports and FDI) in the Lodz Voivodeship, Poland. Two hypotheses have been tested –self-selection and learning by internationalization. It has been found that productivity may affect import and FDI decisions of firms, while there is no evidence of such an effect regarding exports. At the same time, there is no proof for learning, suggesting that within the timeframe of the analysis firms from the Lodz Voivodeship do not experience productivity gains due to international trade or investment.
    Keywords: international trade, foreign direct investment, internationalization, productivity, self-selection, learning
    JEL: F12 F23 D22
    Date: 2016–08
  31. By: Dana SISEA (Faculty of Economics, Ecological University of Bucharest); Valentin SCARLAT (Faculty of Economics, Ecological University of Bucharest)
    Abstract: The production of goods and services by the entities producing, I assume a significant consumption of material resources and money to which they relate and in the calculations underlying the accounts. In this respect, a major role is the responsibility of the management accounting processing information on resource consumption, they recorded in their own filing system and calculated in basis of this information, the cost of goods and services. The role and importance of this indicator shall require it to be calculated with greater accuracy, at a level as close as possible to reality. This requirement is subject to the application in priority in management accounting, the most effective methods of calculation of costs, those that determine in the most truthful. Methods of calculation differ, in the main, in the light of the specific nature of the activity and profile production technology. The system for calculating the production enterprises being practised in Romania from base a small number of methods of calculation (method, method and methodology phases), all showing deficiencies with respect to the allocation of indirect costs and insufficiently accurate calculation of the cost. Companies in developed countries have economic and a tradition in the field of cost calculation with the application of advanced methods, one of which being the calculation of activity whose efficiency and deployment context are displayed in the following.
    Keywords: dual accounting system, harmonization of accounting systems, method of calculation, object of calculation, direct expenditure, overheads, the basis of allocation
    JEL: M41
    Date: 2016–04
  32. By: Abramov Alexander (RANEPA)
    Abstract: The year 2015 saw a continuation of the longest slump in the history of Russia's stock market, which had started in May 2008. In 1997–1998, after the RTS Index had dropped by 91.3%, and the MICEX Index - by 73.0%, from their pre-crisis highs over a period that lasted slightly more than a year, they both managed to recover their former quotes in 58 and 8 months respectively. Now, as of February 2016, after their plummet during the acute phase of the 2008 crisis, both these stock indices have never recovered: the MICEX Index over the period of 88 months, and the RTS Index – 85 months.
    Keywords: Russian economy, financial markets, financial institutions
    JEL: G01 G12 G18 G21 G24 G28 G32 G33
    Date: 2016
  33. By: Mamedov Arseny (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Fomina Elena (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Belev Sergey (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: In 2015, the general government increased their budget revenues in absolute terms by Rb 123bn from 2014, however the revenues dropped by 0.9 percentage points of GDP and by 13% in real terms (including CPI). The general government increased their budget expenditure both in nominal terms and as a percentage of GDP by 1.5 percentage points of GDP, whereas expenditure in real terms were cut by 7% over values seen in 2014. As a result, the general government ran their budget with a deficit of 3.5% of GDP (the 2014 budget deficit was 1.1% of GDP). Note that the 2015 deficit was many times the value recorded in 2013–2014, both in absolute terms and as a percentage of GDP, whereas a surplus was recorded in 2011–2012. Thus, in 2015 Russia’s budget system saw its balance deteriorate seriously over values seen in 2011–2014.
    Keywords: Russian economy, budget system, tax revenues, budget parameters
    JEL: H61 H62
    Date: 2016
  34. By: Goraus-Tanska, Karolina (University of Warsaw); Lewandowski, Piotr (Institute for Structural Research (IBS))
    Abstract: Minimum wages continue to be at the centre of the policy debates in both developed and emerging economies. Such policies can only be effective if (1) the existing regulatory system does not have gaps that allow for the payment of wages below the minimum wage, and (2) the existing minimum wage laws are not violated (too often). In this paper we analyse minimum wage violations in 10 Central and Eastern European countries that have joined the EU since 2004, and that have statutory national minimum wages. Utilising EU-SILC data, we use the methodology proposed by Bhorat et al. (2013) to analyse both the incidence of minimum wage violations, as well as the monetary depth of these violations. We find that on average in 2003-2012, the estimated incidence of violations ranged from 1.0% in Bulgaria, to 1.3% in the Czech Republic, around 3% in Romania and Slovenia, 4.7% in Poland and Hungary, 5.6% in Latvia, and 6.9% in Lithuania. The average pay shortfall ranged from 13.7% of the country-year specific minimum wage in Estonia, to 41.7% in Slovenia. In all countries, workers who were female, less-educated, in the service or agricultural sector, in a micro firm, or with a temporary contract were more likely than other categories of workers to earn less than the minimum wage they were entitled to. While higher minimum to average wage ratios were associated with higher levels of non-compliance, this effect was present within countries over time, but not between them.
    Keywords: minimum wage, violation, compliance, Central Eastern Europe
    JEL: J08 J31 J38
    Date: 2016–07
  35. By: Dezhina Irina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: In 2015, the budget allocations to civilian research and development (R&D) were cut by approximately 8% at current prices by comparison with the targets set in the basic version of the Law on the 2015 Federal Budget and 2016–2017 Budget Plan. The reduction in the amount of budget funding is of critical importance for the science sector, because the federal budget has remained the principal source of funding for research and development, covering about 70% of the aggregate expenditures on R&D.
    Keywords: Russian economy, R&D, science, technology
    JEL: I21 I22 I23 I24 I25
    Date: 2016
  36. By: Knobel Alexander (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Baeva Marina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: With Russia’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on August 22, 2012, the country joined the mechanism of settlement of trade disputes in the WTO. Such a mechanism operates in the WTO in accordance with the Understanding on Rules and Procedures Governing the Settlement of Disputes (DSU). So, from August 2012 Russia has the right to protect its trade interests by means of the above instrument.
    Keywords: Russian economy, foreign trade, WTO, trade disputes
    JEL: F10 F13 F19
    Date: 2016
  37. By: Ciprian ALEXANDRU (Faculty of Economics, Ecological University of Bucharest); Nicoleta CARAGEA (Faculty of Economics, Ecological University of Bucharest)
    Abstract: The crisis has increased income inequality of the world populations, delaying economic recovery and, by default, the jobs creation at world level. Solving social problems, particularly those related to employment, innovation, education, social inclusion, seen from the perspective of the European Union, results in the five overarching objectives laid down in the Europe 2020 strategy. Member States have adopted their own national targets for each of these areas. To achieve those objectives, substantial efforts will be needed to be made in the coming years within all EU Member States, in a context of severe budgetary constraints caused by the recent economic and social developments. This paper provides an overview of the main indicators that characterise poverty and inequality of Romanian population with some regards at international context.
    Keywords: inequality, poverty, risk of poverty, income
    JEL: D60 I30
    Date: 2016–04
  38. By: Bozhechkova Alexandra (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Trunin Pavel (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Kiyutsevskaya Anna (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: In 2015, the Bank of Russia faced global challenges while implementing measures as part of its monetary policy. The economic situation in 2015 was marked by the following: Western sanctions and Russia’s countersanctions remained in effect, prices of Russia’s key export commodities continued to fall, economic agents’ expectations for high inflation remained intact. The sweeping depreciation of the Russian ruble in late 2014/early 2015 resulted in an inflation shock which kept the year-end inflation at high level: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 12.9% at the 2015 year-end, much higher than the 2017 mid-term target level (4%) set forth in the central bank’s Guidelines for the Single State Monetary Policy for 2015–2017. In its official 2015 forecast, Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development predicted inflation will not move beyond 6.3% in late 2014/early 2015, and Russia’s central bank expected it to stay at 8.2–8.7% under the baseline scenario and 9.3–9.8% under the risk scenario. At the same time, the Bank of Russia cut its key rate gradually from 17% in January down to 11% in December 2015 as inflation slowed down over the course of the year.
    Keywords: Russian economy, monetary policy, money market, exchange rate, INFLATION, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
    JEL: E31 E43 E44 E51 E52 E58
    Date: 2016
  39. By: Uzun Vasily (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Shagaida Natalia (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Gataulina Ekaterina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Yanbykh Renata (RANEPA)
    Abstract: In 2015 the war of sanctions and the shutting down of access to Russian food markets for countries included in the sanction list[1] created favourable conditions for domestic farm producers. The limiting factor was the drop of ruble exchange rate that dramatically lifted prices for many farm inputs, both imported (hybrid seeds, pesticides, breeder stock, etc.) and exported (fertilizers, fuels). Therefore, there were fears that farmers would fail to benefit from the shutting down of markets and to increase domestic agricultural output. However, farm producers did not reduce areas sown in all major crops as compared with the previous year.
    Keywords: Russian economy, import substitution, food embargo, sanctions, counter sanctions
    JEL: Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18
    Date: 2016
  40. By: Lei Gu; Yi-Xin Zhang; Jian-Zhou Wang; Gina Chen; Hugh Battye
    Abstract: This paper discusses the history and present status of different categories of biogas production in China, most of which are classified into rural household production, agriculture-based engineering production, and industry-based engineering production. To evaluate the future biogas production of China, five models including the Hubbert model, the Weibull model, the generalized Weng model, the H–C–Z model, and the Grey model are applied to analyze and forecast the biogas production of each province and the entire country. It is proved that those models which originated from oil research can also be applied to other energy sources. The simulation results reveal that China’s total biogas production is unlikely to keep on a fast-growing trend in the next few years, mainly due to a recent decrease in rural household production, and this greatly differs from the previous goal set by the official department. In addition, China’s biogas production will present a more uneven pattern among regions in the future. This paper will give preliminary explanation for the regional difference of the three biogas sectors and propose some recommendations for instituting corresponding policies and strategies to promote the development of the biogas industry in China.
    Keywords: biogas production; China; temporal-spatial-forecast; policy
    JEL: N0 J50
    Date: 2016–07–05
  41. By: Shadrin Artem (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: The regions’ consolidated budgets and the budgets of subnational state off-budget funds ran with a deficit of Rb 178.7bn (0.22% of GDP) at the 2015 year-end. In terms of percentage of GDP, the regions’ consolidated budget deficit was over three times as little as the value recorded in 2014. For example, in 2014, subnational budgets ran a deficit of Rb 485.6bn (0.68% of GDP).
    Keywords: Russian economy, municipal finances, loan market
    JEL: H71 H74
    Date: 2016
  42. By: Volovik Nadezhda (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: In 2015, economic growth rates in countries, which are main trade partners of the Russian Federation, turned out to be below forecast of a year earlier. In 2015, according to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China[1], the China's GDP went up by 6.9% annualized, which is the minimum over the recent 25 years. Production growth in 2015 has slowed down to 6.0% and growth of the service sector up to 8.3%. In 2014, growth rates posted 7.3% and 7.8%, respectively.
    Keywords: Russian economy, foreign trade, terms of trade, regional pattern
    JEL: F10 F13 F19
    Date: 2016
  43. By: Cao, Jerry (Singapore Management University); Julio, Brandon (University of Oregon); Leng, Tiecheng (Singapore Management University); Zhou, Sili (Singapore Management University)
    Abstract: We examine the impact of political influence and ownership on corporate investment by exploiting the unique way provincial leaders are selected and promoted in China. The tournament-style promotion system creates incentives for new provincial governors to exert their influence over capital allocation, particularly during the early years of their term. Using a neighboring-province difference-in-differences estimation approach, we find that there is a divergence in investment rates between state owned enterprises (SOEs) and non-state owned enterprises (non-SOEs) following political turnover. SOEs experience an abnormal increase in investment by 6.0% in the year following the turnover, consistent with the incentives of a new governor to stimulate investment. In contrast, investment rates for non-SOEs decline significantly post-turnover, suggesting that the political influence exerted over SOEs crowds out private investment. The effects of political turnover on investment are mainly driven by normal turnovers, and turnovers with less-educated or local-born successors. Finally, we provide evidence that the political incentives around the turnover of provincial governors represent a misallocation of capital as measures of investment efficiency decline post-turnover.
    Keywords: Corporate investment, Political turnover, China, SOE, Political uncertainty, Grabbing-hand, Crowding out, Investment efficiency
    JEL: G30 G31 G38
    Date: 2016–07–08
  44. By: Grzegorz Wesołowski
    Abstract: I show that the long term interest rate that includes a time-varying term premium stabilizes GDP and it does not affect significantly inflation volatility in Poland. I derive this result from an estimated DSGE model of a small open economy. GDP volatility would have been much higher if the endogenous part of the term premium had been switched off in the model, while the inflation volatility has not been affected by the presence of the term premium. At the same time, the term premium shock had only a minor impact on GDP and inflation volatilities which suggests that the QE programs conducted by the major central banks did not have a substantial impact on the Polish economy.
    Keywords: long term interest rates, time-varying term premium, business cycle, small open economy
    JEL: E32 E43 E44
    Date: 2016
  45. By: Diana Ioana POPA (National Institute of Statistics, Romania); Nicoleta CARAGEA (Faculty of Economics, Ecological University of Bucharest)
    Abstract: Employment statistics are key indicators in analyzing the developments in labor markets, which can be used to study the level of economic and social development of a country. In this research study descriptive statistics tools were applied to study the patterns of employment in Romania. The result offers an overview over the specifics of employment in this country. Data source used in this study is the Labor Force Survey, carried out by the National Institute of Statistics Romania. This research will contribute in describing the economic and social life of Romania, as well as a comparison tool in regard with other countries of the European Union.
    Keywords: employment, patterns, labor force
    JEL: A13 C18 J01 J21
    Date: 2016–04
  46. By: Idrisov Georgy (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Kaukin Andrey (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Ponomarev Yuri (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: Russia’s real economy continued throughout 2015 to accommodate itself to new terms of trade and a new geopolitical context, both of which rendered the dynamics of domestic market’s key indicators less stable and less foreseeable. To make sure that sectoral dynamics are interpreted correctly, analysis of time series in the short term should be attended with seasonal and calendar adjustments. In order to be certain that the available dynamics of industrial production indicates that a period of downturn (or growth) is over, recovery (or slowdown) processes are afoot, monthly series should be decomposed into calendar, seasonal, irregular and trend components.[1] It is the changes of the trend component that should be analyzed in order to provide a substantial interpretation of sectoral trends.
    Keywords: Russian economy, Russian industry, industrial production
    JEL: C53 E37 L21 L52
    Date: 2016
  47. By: Zadonsky Georgy (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: According to the data released by the Rosreestr, the area of land plots owned by Russian nationals keeps decreasing and as of 1 January 2015 amounted to 115,400,000 ha or 6.8% of the land of the Russian Federation against 117m ha (6.84%) as of 1 January 2014. On the contrary, the area of land in public and municipal ownership and ownership of legal entities keeps growing. Within a year, the area of land plots owned by legal entities increased by 1.3m ha and amounted to 17.2m ha or 1.0% of the land of the Russian Federation. The area of land plots in public and municipal ownership increased by 37,900 ha. As of 1 January 2015, Russian nationals’ land shares decreased by 3.0m ha and amounted to 5.2% (89.3m ha) of the country’s land or 67.3% of land in private ownership. A decrease in the area of land in shared ownership is regarded as positive factor as land plots in shared ownership by virtue of incompleteness of that title are used inefficiently.
    Keywords: Russian economy, land market
    JEL: G21 K11 L74 L85
    Date: 2016
  48. By: Zatsepin Vasily (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Tsymbal Vitaly (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: Unlike previous years, the findings of analysis of Russia’s military economics and policy in 2015 fail to match what is perceived as absolute peacetime. The IISS, a world-leading authority on global security, argues that Russia is conducting a so-called hybrid warfare. The published views of western experts on hybrid warfare reflect the events occurred in Ukraine over the last two years. The spring of 2015 saw changes in accusations against Russia following Russia’s air strikes and cruise missiles strikes on the positions of ISIS terrorists in Syria. The fact that Russia is conducting special-purpose military operations is indisputable. Russia took the terrorist attack that brought down the Russian plane in Egypt, killing all 224 Russian passengers on board, as military assault against Russia’s nationals, thus forcing Russia to introduce retaliatory military counteractions against not only the ISIS in Syria but also against organizers and sponsors of terrorism. Later there were acts of terrorism in France, that prompted the French government to join the war against the ISIS, acting in conjunction with Russia and with a few other countries. Being unhappy with these developments, the Turkish government prepared the shoot down of a Russian military jet along the Syrian border. Russia responded with economic countersanctions, warning more sanctions could follow. Therefore, it appears logical that a new version of the Russian Federation National Security Strategy (Executive Order of the President No. 683 dated December 31, 2015) was approved on the very last day of 2015 .
    Keywords: Russian economy, military-industrial complex, military reform, defense order, military procurement, defense control
    JEL: D74 F52 H56 F51
    Date: 2016

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