nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2016‒04‒04
twenty-one papers chosen by
J. David Brown
United States Census Bureau

  1. The Impact of War on Happiness: the Case of Ukraine By Tom Coupe; Maksym Obrizan
  2. Public expenditure, growth and productivity of Vietnam’s provinces. By Duc-Anh Le; Phu Nguyen-Van; Thi Kim Cuong Pham
  3. Environment, Energy, and Environmental Productivity of Energy: A Decomposition Analysis in China and the US By Mohamad Taghvaee, Vahid; Hajiani, Parviz
  4. Determinants of Monetary Transmission in Armenia By Sargsyan Hayk
  5. Consumption and social integration: Empirical evidence for Chinese migrant workers By Huang, Xiaobing; Liu, Xiaolian
  6. BMI Growth Rates and the Nutrition Transition: The Role of Income, Inequality and Income Growth in Russia By Butzlaff, Iris
  7. The Savings Multiplier By Mehlum, Halvor; Torvik, Ragnar; Valente, Simone
  8. Financial Consumer Protection And Literacy: A Compative Study Between Bulgaria And Romania By Filipova-Rivers, Magdalena
  9. The main indicators analysis that characterize the food consumption evolution in Romania in comparison between the period 2001-2006 and 2007-2014 By Necula, Raluca; Stoian, Mirela; Manea, Draghici
  10. Vegetable consumption in Romania correlations with purchasing power and supply By Alboiu, Cornelia
  11. Migration in Vietnam: New Evidence from Recent Surveys By Coxhead, Ian; Vu, Linh; Nguyen, Cuong
  12. Agricultural knowledge and information system: Lessons learned in the postsocialist period in Romania and Bulgaria By Rusu, Marioara; Dirimanova, Violeta; Simionescu, Violeta Maria
  13. Shelter-belts – the solution for protecting crops and increasing productions in the lands affcted by the desertification phenomenon in Oltenia By Marin, Ancuta
  14. Implications of Chinese Yuan on China’s competitiveness By Uddin, Md Akther; Baddou, Mehdi; Gulzar Mohd, Rosana
  15. Growth Stabilises: Investment a Major Driver, Except in Countries Plagued by Recession By Amat Adarov; Vasily Astrov; Serkan Çiçek; Rumen Dobrinsky; Vladimir Gligorov; Doris Hanzl-Weiss; Peter Havlik; Mario Holzner; Gabor Hunya; Simona Jokubauskaite; Sebastian Leitner; Isilda Mara; Olga Pindyuk; Leon Podkaminer; Sandor Richter; Hermine Vidovic
  16. Consistency of Risk Preference Measures and the Role of Ambiguity: An Artefactual Field Experiment from China By Pan He; Marcella Veronesi; Stefanie Engel
  17. Weighting deprivations using subjective well-being: An application to the Multidimensional Child Poverty Index in Vietnam By Dat Vu Hoang; Laure Pasquier-Doumer
  18. Assessment of the Impact of Fiscal Policy on the Current Account – the Twin Deficit Hypothesis in the Case of Macedonian Economy By Vesna Stojcevska; Mite Miteski
  19. Measuring the Stringency of Land-Use Regulation: The Case of China's Building-Height Limits By Brueckner, Jan; Fu, Shihe; Gu, Yizhen; Zhang, Junfu
  20. Struggling for new lives: Family and fertility policies in the Soviet Union and modern Russia By Selezneva, Ekaterina
  21. Covered interest parity: evidence from Russian money market By Kuga Iakov; Elena Kuzmina

  1. By: Tom Coupe (Kyiv School of Economics); Maksym Obrizan (Kyiv School of Economics)
    Abstract: In this paper, we study how war affects happiness using data from the on-going conflict in Ukraine. Using a difference-in-difference design, we find that the average level of happiness declined substantially in zones that experience war directly, with the effect of directly experiencing war on the happiness of an individual being roughly comparable to the loss of happiness a relatively well-off person would experience if he/she were to become a poor person. At the same time, despite the fact that the war in the East dominates the local media in Ukraine, respondents in other regions of Ukraine are basically as happy as they were before the war. We discuss the implications of this finding for the duration of the war and for the expectations regarding the management of veterans.
    Keywords: happiness, war, Ukraine
    JEL: I3 N44
    Date: 2016–03
  2. By: Duc-Anh Le; Phu Nguyen-Van; Thi Kim Cuong Pham
    Abstract: This paper proposes a structural approach to investigate total factor productivity and economic growth of Vietnam’s provinces during the 2000-2007 period. TFP is composed of three components: an autonomous technological change, an observed deterministic part depending on external factors, and an unobserved stochastic part. Estimation results do not show any evidence regarding the impacts of national and local public spending on TFP and economic growth of Vietnam’s provinces. Human capital and the local economy’s structure (shares of industry, services, and agriculture) can play a significant role in explaining the cross-province differences in terms of productivity. Finally, TFP of Vietnam’s provinces does not converge in the long run as it displays a polarization feature around two main groups of provinces, a large group with low TFP levels and much smaller group with high TFP levels. This bipolar pattern of TFP distribution helps to explain the competitiveness disparity among the Vietnam’s provinces.
    Keywords: Structural modeling, national public expenditure; local public expenditure; total factor productivity; Vietnam’s provinces.
    JEL: C23 H50 H70 O40
    Date: 2016
  3. By: Mohamad Taghvaee, Vahid; Hajiani, Parviz
    Abstract: The global warming, if not global burning, is a dire warning about environmental pollution dangers to everyone, living on the only one Earth. This study aims to measure relative contributors to the environmental quality changes during 2002-2011 using Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index in China and the US. Since these countries are the biggest polluters in the world, the decomposition technique is used to cut their wide environmental issues into the tiny bits of problems, being easy to cope with. Moreover, we employed Environmental Performance Index (EPI) to evolve the concept of Environmental Productivity of Energy (EPE). The results suggest that economic growth and income equality are environmentallyfriendly while energy consumption is environmentally-unfriendly; and the Environmental Productivity of Energy (EPE) and technology progress are environmentally-moody (with various effects on environment). Consequently, the policy makers are advised to develop those economic sectors which are independent of pollutant energies; to replace the black energies by the green ones; and to invest on the research about the products whose demand is price inelastic.
    Keywords: Environment, Energy, Productivity, Decomposition
    JEL: Q5
    Date: 2015
  4. By: Sargsyan Hayk
    Abstract: A well-functioning monetary policy transmission mechanism is a guarantee for a successful monetary policy, therefore examination of the impacts of its main determinants in Armenia was of a great interest, and served as an inspiration for the given research. Following the research objectives, a proxy variable for the strength of monetary pass-through in Armenia was estimated, and then the resulted variable was used in an empirical model to assess the long-run and short run relationship with its main factors.
    JEL: E52 E58
    Date: 2016–03–18
  5. By: Huang, Xiaobing; Liu, Xiaolian
    Abstract: This paper investigates the nexus between consumption and social integration of Chinese migrant workers using survey data with 869 samples from four Chinese provinces. The study suggests the following results: (1) Migrant workers are less integrated in terms of psychological integration and cultural integration, but they are strongly motivated to integrate into host societies; (2) An increase in consumption is associated with an increase in the social integration of migrant workers. This effect is stronger for new-generation migrant workers and weaker for high-income migrant workers; (3) Entertainment consumption plays the most important role in the social integration of migrant workers, whereas the effect of housing consumption on social integration is found to be negative; (4) Among all types of consumption behaviors, rational consumption is beneficial to the social integration of migrant workers, whereas impulsive consumption is harmful. The effects of economic consumption and conspicuous consumption are not significant.
    Keywords: consumption,consumption behavior,migrant workers,social integration
    JEL: F22 J15 D73 K42
    Date: 2016
  6. By: Butzlaff, Iris
    Abstract: This study analyzes the extent to which nutritional status in terms of weight change has been affected by the income distribution as the economy has grown. Is BMI growth different at different tails of the income distribution? Health and nutritional outcomes are not normally expected to be uniform across the income distribution and over time. Using recent individual level data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) from 1994 to 2012, we scrutinize the influence of transitional processes, particularly economic transitions on nutritional and health outcomes. We test the hypothesis that the income gradient of individual body weight growth (i.e. the relationship between income and BMI growth) follows an inverted U-shape and thus changes its sign from positive to negative in the process of economic development. For the case of Russia, we could not find clear evidence that the income-BMI-growth gradient has already shifted. Turning points have not yet been reached. Expenditure increases have significant positive effects on BMI levels and on BMI growth rates. Better educated women have lower BMI levels than women with less than secondary education whereas men who completed tertiary education have higher BMI levels than men with less than secondary education.
    Keywords: Overweight, obesity, health, transition economy, Russia, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Health Economics and Policy, H51, I15, O15, P36,
    Date: 2016–03
  7. By: Mehlum, Halvor; Torvik, Ragnar; Valente, Simone
    Abstract: We develop a theory of macroeconomic development based on the novel concept of savings multiplier: capital accumulation changes relative prices and income shares between generations, creating further incentives to accumulate and thereby rising saving rates as the economy develops. The savings multiplier hinges on two mechanisms. First, accumulation raises wages and leads to redistribution from the consuming old to the saving young. Second, higher wages raise the price of services consumed by the old, and the anticipation of such price rise prompts the young to increase their savings. Our theory captures important aspects of China's development and suggests new channels through which the one child policy and the dismantling of cradle-to-grave social benefits have fuelled China's savings and accumulation rates.
    Keywords: Overlapping generations, Growth, Savings.
    JEL: D91 E21 O11
    Date: 2016–03–18
  8. By: Filipova-Rivers, Magdalena
    Abstract: Up until the financial crisis of 2007 - 2009, the global economy was adding an estimated 150 million new consumers of financial services each year. The rates of increase have since slowed down, but the growth continues. Most of the new consumers are in developing and emerging economies, where consumer protection and financial literacy are still in their infancy and where consumers are faced with an array of new financial products despite their relatively low familiarity with financial matters. The level of understanding of financial issues is too low there, with negative consequences for both individuals and economies. The common definition of ‘financial capability’ refers to the ability of consumers to gather, compare and use relevant information in acquiring financial services. Financial education is seen as the key intervention which reduces financial ignorance and improves the consumers’ position on the financial market. Several high-income countries have established national financial capability strategies and many other middle-, and low-income countries have also started implementing such policies. As a result of demographic, economic and policy changes, the needs of both the European citizens and the financial products themselves have grown in complexity. This, coupled with the deregulation and globalisation of the financial markets, poses not only considerable opportunities but also threats for the financial wellbeing of individuals and households. If left unattended, changes in the financial system can also pose a variety of risks to society, which will bear the costs arising from market inefficiency. This further highlights the importance of consumer protection and financial literacy for ensuring confidence in the financial system (which is also relevant for Bulgaria and Romania) and for increasing financial inclusion. In April 2010 the World Bank commissioned two nation-wide surveys of the levels of financial literacy in both Romania and Bulgaria. The main objective of these surveys was the establishment of a well-targeted national program for financial education. The data obtained from the respective surveys form the basis for the comparative study on financial capability and consumer protection in Bulgaria and Romania, which is the focus of this report. The purpose of this paper is to define the main challenges as regards consumer protection in the financial services sector in Bulgaria and Romania. The survey revealed several important problems that need further policy consideration. One main observation is that the financial sector in both Bulgaria and Romania is underutilized; it is comprised mainly of banking services such as debit cards and consumer loans. Outside the banking system only insurance and, to a certain degree, leasing services enjoy popularity. Furthermore, it can be inferred that large proportions of the populations of both countries are not involved in the formal financial sector, whilst those who are, are of relatively low financial literacy. Such tendencies limit individuals’ access to financial services and in turn have economy-wide implications in terms of hampered growth of the sector. The next section (part two) discusses conceptual issues and literature related to financial capability in the broader context. In part three we look at the case for comparison between Bulgaria and Romania. Part four of the study deals with data from the respective surveys conducted in Bulgaria and Romania and seeks to draw parallels between the two countries on the questions of: financial status and money management, financial product usage and trust in institutions, and staying informed. Section five offers a summary of the preceding data discussion before concluding with some country-specific policy recommendations.
    Keywords: financial education, indebtedness, consuer protection, financial literacy
    JEL: G0 I25
    Date: 2016
  9. By: Necula, Raluca; Stoian, Mirela; Manea, Draghici
    Abstract: The analysis on the food consumption is particularly important because it helps us to discover information about the individual's health and economic differences between the two periods studied, outlining the economic impact on human food consumption and the worldwide food trends impact on the food transit that's going on within our country. It have been also noticed changes at the level of urban and rural areas and the differences between the two environments, which illustrates on the one hand the existence of changes in feeding with the accession to the European Union, the tendency being to decrease the number of calories, and the differences between environments demonstrating a higher food consumption for the countryside.
    Keywords: food consumption, calories, protein, carbohydrates, lipids
    JEL: O13 Q12 Q18 R00
    Date: 2015–11–20
  10. By: Alboiu, Cornelia
    Abstract: The paper makes an analysis of socio-economic factors that influence food consumption levels in terms of income evolution at regional level and also a comparison with EU average and several regions from Poland; it also presents the dispersion of regional GDP per inhabitant and its influence on consumption taking into account the level of polarization among several EU countries. The research analyses the level of expenditure per household in Romania; in addition comparisons with EU countries are made along with the structure of total average expenditure per person per month at macro region development levels in Romania. An in depth analysis is dedicated to the level of expenditures for vegetables and tinned vegetables and the structure of expenditure on the purchasing power for various types of vegetables by regions and social categories. The results show a quite high level of income dedicated for consumption and important disparities among social categories as far as the vegetable consumption is concerned. Also there is a high polarization among the EU countries concerning the income dispersion and its impact on vegetable consumption.
    Keywords: consumption, expenditure, purchasing power
    JEL: Q11 Q18 R11
    Date: 2015–11–20
  11. By: Coxhead, Ian; Vu, Linh; Nguyen, Cuong
    Abstract: We investigate determinants of individual migration decisions in Vietnam, a country with increasingly high levels of geographical labor mobility. Using data from the Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey (VHLSS) of 2012, we find that probability of migration is strongly associated with individual, household and community-level characteristics. The probability of migration is higher for young people and those with post-secondary education. Migrants are more likely to be from households with better-educated household heads, female-headed households, and households with higher youth dependency ratios. Members of ethnic minority groups are much less likely to migrate, other things equal. Using multinomial logit methods, we distinguish migration by broad destination, and find that those moving to Ho Chi Minh City or Hanoi have broadly similar characteristics and drivers of migration to those moving to other destinations. We also use VHLSS 2012 together with VHLSS 2010, which allows us to focus on a narrow cohort of recent migrants—those present in the household in 2010, but who have moved away by 2012. This yields much tighter results. For education below upper secondary school, the evidence on positive selection by education is much stronger. However, the ethnic minority “penalty” on spatial labor mobility remains strong and significant, even after controlling for specific characteristics of households and communes. This lack of mobility is a leading candidate to explain the distinctive persistence of poverty among Vietnam’s ethnic minority populations, even as national poverty has sharply diminished.
    Keywords: Migration, migration decision, remittances, household survey, Vietnam.
    JEL: I0 O1 R2
    Date: 2016–03–20
  12. By: Rusu, Marioara; Dirimanova, Violeta; Simionescu, Violeta Maria
    Abstract: The new challenges facing Eastern European rural and agricultural sector impose, among other things, a review of the links between knowledge production and its use to promote innovation. Given that, agriculture is the main source of livelihood for a large part of the rural population in Romania and Bulgaria and its development requires multiple interventions that include, inter alia, ensuring effective transfer of agricultural modern knowledge, technologies, methods and practices to the direct beneficiaries - farmers. Both in Romania and Bulgaria, agricultural knowledge generation (research), transfer (extension) and use (farmers as end users) passed during the post-socialist period through important changes. The main objective of this paper is to analyze the Agricultural Knowledge and Information System (AKIS), in the two countries, in terms of pursued objectives, structure and performed functions. Based on this analysis the authors synthesize the main lessons learned during the post-socialist period in the two countries, and outline the future direction of development of agricultural knowledge, production, transfer and use them in agreement with European requirements.
    Keywords: AKIS, agricultural extension, agricultural research and education, Romania, Bulgaria
    JEL: D83 O12 O57 Q1
    Date: 2015–11–20
  13. By: Marin, Ancuta
    Abstract: Because of the climate changes and the massive clearings, some of the most critical problems that Romania and especially the S-W part of Oltenia are confrunted with are: the desertification and the earth flows. The purpose of the shelter –belts in preventing the effects of the wind and in protecting the agrarian crops and the agrarian production implicitly, can be evaluated by keeping in mind a series of specific determination: soil, climate, wind rate, the quantity of driven sand, wind erosion, soil erosion, agrarian production, density of crop. In this paper it is proven that the best results were obtained when the protection of the agrarian fields was made with the help of the shelter-belts arrays, made so that two shelter-belts encased and directed perpendicular to the dominant wind direction in order to confine an agrarian crop in rotation and, with their accumulated effect, to reduce the wind rate at soil level up to almost zero.
    Keywords: shelter-belts, desertification, protection, climate changes, wind rate, clearing
    JEL: Q23 Q55 R58
    Date: 2015–11–20
  14. By: Uddin, Md Akther; Baddou, Mehdi; Gulzar Mohd, Rosana
    Abstract: The stability and level of strength or weakness in exchange rates are prime considerations of monetary authorities and businesses, both domestic and international. This paper thus analyses the RMB’s appreciation and depreciation against its major trading partners’ currencies namely the USD, EUR, JPY, AUD and MYR. It also includes a review of their volatilities and most importantly, the economic implications of the RMB rates on exports and foreign investment flows. The Renminbi has come a long way since its pegged days of 1994 to 2005. Most recently, head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Christine Lagarde herself, has endorsed its inclusion into an elite basket of the fund’s reserve currencies. The Renminbi is now on a managed floating system and allegations of manipulation remain, especially with notable pauses in the currency’s rises during the global financial crisis and in the second quarter of 2015. But the upward trend is undeniable, given that the Chinese economy is now the world’s number two in size and the Renminbi is now the world’s second most-used currency for trade finance. Its volatility has similarly picked up with the end of the peg and its increasing use worldwide. Ironically, an appreciating currency, albeit a managed one, bodes well for China’s economy now as it is engineering a shift away from being led by exports to being driven by domestic consumption. A strong Renminbi will encourage more import consumption, something that the government would like to see. But challenges remain. China’s still largely closed markets and questions about the country’s political, legal and economic institutions may constrain the international use of its currency. And while the Renminbi has shot up in use, international sales in the currency still account for less than 3% of global transactions. The greenback continues to dominate as the currency for trade settlements. Thus while the wind is definitely beneath the Renminbi’s sails, officials will likely need to skilfully navigate through potential turbulences ahead.
    Keywords: currency volatility, exchange rate, devaluation, RMB, USD, EUR, AUD and MYR
    JEL: A1 A3 F3 F31
    Date: 2015–11–18
  15. By: Amat Adarov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Serkan Çiçek (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Rumen Dobrinsky (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Vladimir Gligorov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Doris Hanzl-Weiss (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Peter Havlik (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Mario Holzner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Gabor Hunya (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Simona Jokubauskaite (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sebastian Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Isilda Mara (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Olga Pindyuk (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Leon Podkaminer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sandor Richter (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Hermine Vidovic (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: GDP growth in the EU Member States of Central and Eastern Europe (EU-CEE), the Western Balkans (WB) and Turkey will remain stable or even increase. The trend growth path will be around 3%. EU-CEE countries will thus continue to catch up to the EU average, however at low speed. Russia and Ukraine, on the other hand, will show a considerably worse performance growth will return in 2017 at the earliest. These are the main results of the newly released medium-term macroeconomic forecast by the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw). In 2015, the EU-CEE group registered the highest rate of economic growth since the outbreak of the financial crisis, 3.4% (see Table 1). In 2016-2017 the group will experience some modest growth deceleration on account of the recent consumption boom subsiding and a temporary decline in EU transfers. As for 2018, the EU-CEE countries will pick up some speed driven by an inflow of new investments and transfers. Uncertainties concerning the global economy do not allow us to predict average growth of more than 3% over the medium term. Countries in the Western Balkans also improved their performance in 2015 and will maintain positive growth rates in 2016 and beyond. However unimpressive it may be, compared to their need for catching-up, the average growth rate in the WB countries (excluding Serbia) will not lag behind that in the EU-CEE countries. Turkey will maintain a fragile stability despite relatively high inflation and a high current account deficit, while coping with increasing challenges emerging, for instance, from the war in Syria, the refugee crisis and the loss of export and tourism revenue owing to the Russian trade sanctions. Russia and Belarus will face yet another year of recession in 2016. Russia will continue to suffer from low oil prices, high inflation, currency depreciation, sanctions and fiscal austerity. As usual, structural change and institutional reforms will be slow and half-hearted, incapable of offsetting the losses. Ukraine’s economic growth, after the dramatic fall over the past years, will stabilise as the economy will by and large have completed the adjustment process that was triggered by the country decoupling from Russia and the occupied territories. The Russian annexation of the Crimea and the conflict in East-Ukraine look set to last. Export markets lost will not be regained even in the medium term, nor should one expect the volume of exports to the EU to make up for the shortfall quickly. The divergence of economic performance between the EU-CEE and the WB plus Turkey on the one hand and the CIS-3 (Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan) and Ukraine on the other hand will continue in 2016 and beyond. The difference between the two large country groups, however, will not take on more pronounced dimensions as the recent collapse of the major commodity prices may turn into stagnation. The leading role attributed to household demand in driving economic growth in the EU-CEE and WB countries will be matched by investments. A medium-term investment revival is expected in most of the CESEE countries in both the public and private sectors. FDI has already shown some signs of emerging from stagnation in the EU-CEE and WB countries. Credit conditions for private borrowers have improved. Moreover, gross fixed capital formation is responding to the transfer of EU funds that are bound to decline in 2016, but will recover later, once access to EU transfers provided under the 2014-2020 financing framework picks up. As fiscal consolidation and more rapid economic growth have been achieved, fiscal space has widened in several countries, thus granting governments more room in which to implement and support investments. Even highly indebted countries have managed to adopt a less restrictive fiscal stance. The CIS-3 and Ukraine are outliers in this respect as well; they have started cutting back on expenditures so as to reduce their fiscal deficits. Exports may increase if external demand recovers, but imports may grow even more rapidly as consumption and investment expand in the EU-CEE and WB economies. Thus, net exports will not be a strong driver of economic growth. Foreign investors’ income may rise overall, while remittances and labour income from abroad will remain important sources of current account revenues. Special sections of the Forecast shed light on other topical issues low oil prices are mainly supply-driven; the Juncker Initiative will not take the place of EU transfers; outmigration and demography are leading to labour shortages in EU-CEE countries; the recent inflow of refugees may, in the medium term, put pressure on existing migrant workers in Austria.
    Keywords: CESEE, economic forecast, Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, Southeast Europe, Western Balkans, new EU Member States, CIS, Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Turkey, growth divergence, external risks, macroeconomic imbalances, consumption-led growth, unemployment, inflation, competitiveness, public debt, private debt, current account
    JEL: C33 C50 E20 E29 F34 G01 G18 O52 O57 P24 P27 P33 P52
    Date: 2016–03
  16. By: Pan He (ETH Zurich); Marcella Veronesi (Department of Economics (University of Verona)); Stefanie Engel (Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich)
    Abstract: A variety of measures have been developed to elicit individual risk preferences. How these measures perform in the field, in particular in developing countries with non-student subjects, is still an open question. We implement an artefactual field experiment using a large sample of Chinese farmers to investigate (i) whether subjects behave in a consistent manner across incentivized experimental risk measures, (ii) whether non-incentivized survey measures can elicit actual risk preferences, and (iii) possible explanations for risk preference inconsistency across measures. We find that inconsistent risk preferences across survey and experimental measures may be explained by ambiguity preferences. In the survey, subjects seem to mix risk and ambiguity preferences.
    Keywords: risk preferences, ambiguity preferences, field experiments, socio-economic survey, China
    JEL: C93 D81 O1
    Date: 2016–03
  17. By: Dat Vu Hoang (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - Université Paris IX - Paris Dauphine); Laure Pasquier-Doumer (LEDa - DIAL - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - Economie de la mondialisation et du développement - Université Paris IX - Paris Dauphine)
    Abstract: Although multidimensional approach to study child poverty has received growing attention, weights of different dimensions in constructing single aggregation indices have not been properly investigated. Using Young Livesdata, this study attempts to fill this gap by examining a weight estimation method which takes into account the children’s perspectives. This approach consists of computing analytical weights from estimated parameters of asubjective well-being regression model, where children’s subjective well-being is explained by their achievement in dimensions included in multidimensional poverty indices. By doing so, weights reflect valuejudgments of children on what is a good life and are not based on a normative approach. Estimation resultsindicate that revealed preferences of children change overtime and across sub-groups of children. More importantly, this paper demonstrates that children do not give the same value to all dimensions, contrary to whatthe most common approach to calculate weights is supposing. Children then attach more importance to deprivations such as shelter, water and sanitation deprivations, which impact immediately their well-being thanto deprivations which may affect negatively their well-being in the long-term, with the exception of education for some groups of children.
    Abstract: L’approche multidimensionnelle pour étudier la pauvreté des enfants a reçu une attention croissante. Pourtant, la question de comment pondérer les différentes dimensions de la pauvreté dans la construction d’un indicateursynthétique de pauvreté reste encore largement sous-étudiée. A partir des données Young Lives, cette étude s’attache à combler cette lacune en examinant une méthode d'estimation des poids qui prend en compte lesperceptions des enfants. Cette approche consiste à calculer le poids à partir des paramètres estimés d'un modèle expliquant le bien-être subjectif des enfants par leur réalisation dans les différentes dimensions de la pauvretéincluse dans l’indice synthétique. Les poids ainsi obtenus reflètent les valeurs des enfants sur ce qu’ils considèrent bien vivre, sans apporter de jugement normatif comme le fait l’approche donnant la même valeur àtoutes les dimensions qui est actuellement suivie au Vietnam. Les résultats indiquent que les préférences révélées des enfants varient au cours du temps et entre sous-groupes d'enfants. Surtout, cette étude démontre queles enfants ne donnent pas la même valeur à toutes les dimensions. Ils attachent plus d'importance à des privations qui ont un impact immédiatement leur bien-être telles que celles relatives aux conditions d’habitat, à l’accès à l’eau, à l’assainissement qu’aux privations qui impactent leur bien-être à plus long-terme, à l'exception de l'éducation pour certains groupes d'enfants.
    Keywords: children poverty,weights,Multidimensional poverty index,subjective well-being,Vietnam,bien-être subjectif,pauvreté des enfants,indice de pauvreté multidimensionnelle,pondération
    Date: 2016–03–25
  18. By: Vesna Stojcevska (National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia); Mite Miteski (National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia)
    Abstract: For a small open economy with fixed exchange rate regime, the twin deficit hypothesis is always an interesting and relevant research topic. The aim of this research is to evaluate the effects of the government budget shocks on the current account movement in the case of the Macedonian economy, hoping to shed light on the influence of the fiscal policy on the external position of the economy, as well as to provide useful guidance for policy makers about the sensitivity of the current account balance to changes in the primary budget balance. By using a VAR model on quarterly data for the period from 1998 to 2013, this paper points to a positive relationship between the two balances, but the empirical results also indicate that connection is only contemporaneous, implying that fiscal policy stance does not cause long lasting changes in the balance of payments position of the Macedonian economy. However, our results do not undemand the need for fiscal cautiousness, especially in an economy with a fixed exchange rate regime.
    Keywords: Government Budget Deficit, Balance of Goods and Services, Real Exchange Rate, Twin Deficit Hypothesis, VAR
    JEL: C32 E62 F31 F32 F41
    Date: 2016–01
  19. By: Brueckner, Jan; Fu, Shihe; Gu, Yizhen; Zhang, Junfu
    Abstract: This paper develops a new approach for measuring the stringency of a major form of land-use regulation, building-height restrictions, and it applies the method to an extraordinary dataset of land-lease transactions from China. Our theory shows that the elasticity of land price with respect to the foor-area ratio (FAR), an indicator of the allowed building height for the parcel, is a measure of the regulation's stringency (the extent to which FAR is kept below the free-market level). Using a national sample, estimation that allows this elasticity to be city-specific shows substantial variation in the stringency of FAR regulation across Chinese cities, and additional evidence suggests that stringency depends on certain city characteristics in a predictable fashion. Single-city estimation for the large Beijing subsample, where site characteristics can be added to the regression, indicates that the stringency of FAR regulation varies with certain site characteristics, again in a predictable way (being high near the Tiananmen historical sites). Further results using a different dataset show that FAR limits in Beijing are adjusted in response to demand forces created by new subway stops.
    Keywords: Floor-area ratio, density restriction, urban development
    JEL: R14 R52
    Date: 2016–03–23
  20. By: Selezneva, Ekaterina
    Abstract: During the 20th century, Russian women were assigned the triple role of social and political activists, workers, caregivers and mothers. This paper makes an overview of the main steps undertaken first by the Soviet and later by the modern Russian governments to influence family formation models and fertility levels, in order to improve the demographic situation over the period from 1917 until 2015. The overview pays close attention to such measures of demographic policy as marriage and divorce regulation, support of families through family benefits and the tax system, reconciliation of family and work spheres (maternity/paternity leaves, workplace flexibility measures), fertility promotion, childbearing and childcare support, as well as rare reproductive health protection initiatives.
    Keywords: fertility, Russia, family policy
    JEL: J12 J13 J18 P30
    Date: 2015–12
  21. By: Kuga Iakov; Elena Kuzmina
    Abstract: This paper tests covered interest parity at Russian money market over period of 2010-2014 and studies scale and sources of deviations from it. We use both offered and actual interbank interest rates for four different terms. Average deviations from the parity vary between 8 and 105 basis points depending on rates and terms. We test credit risk, turbulence and monetary policy as explanation of these deviations and assessed them quantitatively. For example, one standard deviation change in credit risk is responsible for 50 per cent of the average deviation from parity compared to 72 per cent due to monetary policy spread and (minus) 22 per cent due to turbulence for one week offered rate spread. Risk and turbulence effects grow with maturity and higher for actual rate spreads.
    JEL: E43 F31 G15
    Date: 2016–03–15

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