nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2016‒02‒23
23 papers chosen by
J. David Brown
United States Census Bureau

  1. Inter-industry relatedness and industrial-policy efficiency: Evidence from China's Export Processing Zones By Zhao Chen; Sandra Poncet; Ruixiang Xiong
  2. National and Regional Financial Openness in China By Hua, Xiuping; Johansson, Anders C.; Wang, Xun
  3. Russian economy in the face of the global decline of crude oil prices By Michal Wilinski; Agnieszka Wilinska
  4. Три варианта экономической политики для России By BLINOV, Sergey
  5. Determining Minimum Wages in China: Do Economic Factors Dominate? By Christian Dreger; Reinhold Kosfeld; Yanqun Zhang
  6. Some empirical findings on the structural development of the Estonian economy By Laaser, Claus-Friedrich; Reiljan, Janno; Schrader, Klaus
  7. The mechanism of protection of the consumer market in Russia By Toropova, Irina
  8. The effects of the CEECS's accession on sectoral trade: A value added perspective By Kaplan, Lennart C.; Kohl, Tristan; Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada
  9. Testing The ‘Black Swan Effect’ on Croatian Stock Market Between 2000 and 2013 By Radman Peša, Anita; Brajković, Ana
  10. The Analysis of Population Aging Phenomena in Poland in Spatial Perspective By Justyna Wilk; Michal Bernard Pietrzak
  11. Estimating the impact of monetary policy on inequality in China By Sánchez-Fung , José R.
  12. With a Little Help from My Friends: Multinational Retailers and China's consumer Market Penetration By Charlotte Emlinger; Sandra Poncet
  13. Political Factors of the Cuts and Surges in Government Spending: The Effects on Old Market Democracies and Post-Communist Countries By Sergey Zhavoronkov; Konstantin Yanovskiy; Kirill Rodionov
  14. Insurance Market Development and Economic Growth in Transition Countries: Some new evidence based on bootstrap panel Granger causality test By Wanat, Stanisław; Papież, Monika; Śmiech, Sławomir
  15. Poverty among ethnic minorities: transition process, inequality and economic growth By Bui, Tuan; Nguyen, Cuong; Pham, Phuong
  16. The performances of Romanian agriculture, given the resources allotted in the socialist agricultural system, compared to the market economy By Miron, Liliana; Lup, Aurel
  17. Analysis of statistical indicators for output areas, in Sud-Vest Oltenia during 2000-2013 By Vlad, Mihaela Cristina; Cujbescu, Dan
  18. Regional Housing Supply Elasticity in China 1999-2013: A Spatial Equilibrium Analysis By Dan S. Rickman; Hongbo Wang
  19. Coordinating Cross-Country Congestion Management By Friedrich Kunz; Alexander Zerrahn
  20. Comments on the Impact of Knowledge on Economic Growth across the Regions of the Russian Federation By Jens K. Perret
  21. Analysis of Romanian agricultural cooperatives structure in 2014 By Micu, Ana Ruxandra; Alecu, Ioan Niculae; Micu, Marius Mihai
  22. Public Debt Sustainability in Serbia-Evidence from Transition and the Great Recession By Andric, Vladimir; Arsic, Milojko; Nojkovic, Aleksandra
  23. Measuring the instability of China's financial system: Indices construction and an early warning system By Sun, Lixin; Huang, Yuqin

  1. By: Zhao Chen; Sandra Poncet; Ruixiang Xiong
    Abstract: In this paper, we evaluate whether the efficiency of industrial policies depends on the consistency of their focus with the local productive structure. We use sector-level data from Chinese manufacturing surveys over the 1998-2007 period to show that the efficiency of the export-promoting policies implemented in Export Processing Zones depends on whether they target activities for which the necessary capabilities and resources are available. We find export benefits from the EPZ policy which are greater for sectors with denser links with the local productive structure. Our results suggest that industrial-policy effectiveness is magnified by pre-existing productive knowledge.
    Keywords: Export Processing Zones;Industrial Policy;Export Promotion Effectiveness;China
    JEL: F13 F14 O25 R11
    Date: 2016–02
  2. By: Hua, Xiuping (Nottingham University Business School China); Johansson, Anders C. (Stockholm China Economic Research Institute); Wang, Xun (Stockholm China Economic Research Institute)
    Abstract: While China’s economy has been subject to a wide range of economic reforms since 1978, its capital account is still restricted. The issue of capital account convertibility is widely debated both in China and by foreign observers. This study contributes to the understanding of China’s capital account by constructing new indices for China’s financial openness. First, we construct alternative indices, both of which suggest that China has experienced significant increases in its financial openness, albeit beginning at very low levels in the late 1970s. Then, we construct an index for financial openness at the provincial level from 2000. As expected, the eastern provinces exhibit much higher levels of financial openness than the provinces located in the central and western parts of the country. Taken together, these indices enable a clear overview of national and regional financial openness across time and are well suited for future studies on determinants and effects of financial openness in China.
    Keywords: Financial openness; Capital account; Capital controls; Convertibility; China
    JEL: F21 F32 F42 G20
    Date: 2015–08–20
  3. By: Michal Wilinski (Nicolaus Copernicus University, Poland); Agnieszka Wilinska (Nicolaus Copernicus University, Poland)
    Abstract: The purpose of this article is to present problem in which the Russia found after the imposition of her economic and political sanctions by the European Union. It also shows the impact of the global figure the crude oil price to change the size of gross domestic product and the country's budget revenues. The models were to confirm the existence of consistent relationship between the studied variables and indicate the strength of this relationship, between the crude oil price and the size of Russia's GDP and exports in the country. The first model is indicative of the relationship between the change in the size of world crude oil prices and the value of gross domestic product. The second model shows the impact of world crude oil prices on the value of exports. The resulting models confirm that values and confirm the thesis of mine. An important element that should also pay attention to a problem related to the occurrence in the Russian economy Dutch disease. Russia's strong economic dependence on oil and natural gas causes such a violent change of the economic situation of the country from fluctuations in the world prices of crude oil and is a major cause of the economic crisis which took the Russian economy in 2014.
    Keywords: crisis, Russia, crude oil
    JEL: A11 A14 B16 B26
    Date: 2015–06
  4. By: BLINOV, Sergey
    Abstract: Key discussions regarding Russia's economic policy are now taking place between the two camps of economists. The foremost proponent of the ideas in the first camp is Alexey Kudrin, former Vice-Prime Minister, PhD in Economics. The second camp has crystalized itself around Sergey Glaziev, Advisor to the President of Russia, Doctor of Economics, Academician. Both options of economic policy which are proposed by these two schools of thought mean a lot of pain to produce any gain. The first part of this article analyzes the weaknesses of these two options. The second part of the article offers an alternative analysis of the causes responsible for the ups and downs of the Russian economy. An action plan is put forward which, within a few months, would allow the Ruble exchange rate to be stabilized and would ensure that the Russian economy grows regardless of the world market prices for major goods of the Russian primary materials exports.
    Keywords: Monetary Policy, Central Banking, Interest Rates, Quantitative Easing (QE), Economic Growth, Money Supply
    JEL: E31 E32 E40 E43 E50 E51 E52 E58 E65 G01 N10 O11
    Date: 2016–01–15
  5. By: Christian Dreger; Reinhold Kosfeld; Yanqun Zhang
    Abstract: Minimum wages may be an important instrument to reduce income inequality in a society and to promote socially inclusive economic growth. While higher minimum wages can support the Chinese transformation towards consumption driven growth, they can worsen the price competitiveness in export markets. As they differ throughout the country, this paper investigates their determinants at the regional level. In addition to a broad set of economic determinants, such as per capita income and consumption, consumer prices, unemployment and industrial structures, spatial effects are taken into account. They might arise for different reasons, including competition of local policymakers. The results show that the impact of economic variables declines, once spatial spillovers are considered. Although the minimum wage regulation pursues the relevance of economic factors in the determination of the appropriate levels, the actual development is largely driven by regional dependencies. As minimum wage standards set by local officials do not fully reflect the regional economic development, further reforms should be on the agenda.
    Keywords: Chinese transformation, minimum wages, spatial effects
    JEL: J30 R23 C23
    Date: 2016
  6. By: Laaser, Claus-Friedrich; Reiljan, Janno; Schrader, Klaus
    Abstract: Estonia is widely regarded as a paramount example for a successful transformation of a socialist economic system to a functioning market economy. Against the backdrop of this positive image which contrasts strongly with the crisis scenarios in Southern Europe the remaining problems of Estonia are often ignored. Estonia has hardly succeeded in catching-up economically with the richer countries of the euro area. In this paper the authors raise the question what the causes of the sluggish catching-up process are, and which opportunities Estonian economic policy has in order to close the wealth gap. It turns out that Estonia faces a serious productivity problem, particularly in the manufacturing sector producing tradable goods which is normally the driving engine behind economic and technological catching-up. The Estonian economy has failed to undergo the necessary structural change towards technologically more advanced employment structures and export patterns. Accordingly, Estonian economic policy needs to create a suitable business environment to support this kind of structural change.
    Keywords: Estonia,catching-up,growth and structural change
    JEL: F14 O12 O52
    Date: 2015
  7. By: Toropova, Irina (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: Studied and systematized the reasons for the current situation on the Russian market of consumer goods, determined by socio-economic and political nature of the problem of falsification of goods, indicating a lack of understanding of the importance of this issue at the state level and the lack of a unified mechanism for the protection of the consumer market of counterfeit products. At the conclusion of the proposed solutions to this problem.
    Keywords: the falsification of production, the legal mechanism to protect the consumer market
    Date: 2015
  8. By: Kaplan, Lennart C.; Kohl, Tristan; Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada
    Abstract: International fragmentation of production and economic integration change the structure of international trade. Novel datasets reveal how production processes are unbundled across borders and connected internationally through Global Value Chains (GVCs). Yet, the impact of Economic Integration Agreements (EIAs) on GVCs is still poorly understood. This paper investigates how the accession of 10 Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) to the European Union (EU) affected trade in value added in Europe. Using a gravity model of international trade for a sample of 40 countries over the period 1995-2009, we find that EU accession mainly fostered Eastern entrants' integration in other CEECs' value chains. Smaller integration benefits arise for East-West trade in services stemming from low-skill value adding activities.
    Keywords: economic integration,international fragmentation,gravity model,European Union
    JEL: F13 F15
    Date: 2016
  9. By: Radman Peša, Anita; Brajković, Ana
    Abstract: We tested the economic activity and stock exchange of Croatia as a new country of European Union (EU) in order to investigate the ‘Black Swan effect’ from 2000 to 2013. The empirical findings obtained in application of OLS methodology and Chow breaking point test provide evidence and show that resignation of the Croatian ex-Prime Minister did lead country successfully to EU. Also, ‘The Black Swan’ event, being unpredictable and having huge impact on political and economic environment in Croatia obtained through CROBEX, had effect on Croatian stock exchange indices. Authors conclude that, the resignation was connected to one of the first significant cases of corruption in Croatia which had a negative impact on the economic development of the country in general, dealing at the same time with global recession.
    Keywords: financial integration, stock exchange, world crisis, corruption, Black Swan
    JEL: E44 F36
    Date: 2015
  10. By: Justyna Wilk (Wroclaw University of Economics, Poland); Michal Bernard Pietrzak (Nicolaus Copernicus University, Poland)
    Abstract: The processes of socio-economic development are continuously accompanied by the process of population aging. It is seen as a growing of the percentage share of people aged 65 and over in the general population. It covers the majority of European Union countries and also refers to Poland. The objective of the paper is to analyze the population aging phenomenon in spatial perspective. The study was carried out for 66 subregions (NUTS 3) and covered the period 1995-2012. Poland is characterized by a strong spatial diversification regarding the senior citizens share and its growth rate, and also determinants exerting impact on the demographic aging processes. The demographically youngest and slowest aging population lives in south-eastern and also central Poland. The most intensive population aging processes are seen in the selected subregions of south-western Poland. Here, we observe extremely low fertility, demographically old working-age population and also significant migration outflow of younger people.
    Keywords: population aging, socio-economic development, spatial approach, taxonomic analysis, regression analysis
    JEL: C38 C51 J11
    Date: 2014–03
  11. By: Sánchez-Fung , José R. (BOFIT)
    Abstract: The paper estimates the impact of monetary policy on income inequality in China. The empirical modelling finds that a battery of monetary indicators, including a monetary overhang measure derived from a money demand equation, and the change in the unemployment rate lead to increases in the Gini coefficient. However, only unemployment is statistically significant. The lack of significance of the monetary indicators is robust to alternative specifications with variability in nominal aggregate demand instead of unemployment.
    Keywords: monetary policy; inequality; inflation; unemployment; China
    JEL: D31 E52
    Date: 2015–05–13
  12. By: Charlotte Emlinger; Sandra Poncet
    Abstract: We study the growing presence of multinational retailers and its role for imports in China. To identify the causal effect of foreign retailers entry on the local import intensity, we use sector and origin country level import data for a panel of Chinese cities between 1997 and 2012 and differentiate between retailer and non retailer goods, and, in a second step, we exploit information on the multinational retailers' headquarters countries. We find that a relative rise in retail imports in cities where multinational retailers settle, which is sharper for imports from the country of origin of the retailer. Our results suggest that a 20% higher multinational retailer presence, amounting to one additional hypermarket in 2012, induces a relative rise in imports in retail goods of 2.8% compared to non retail goods. The import relative gains rise to 5.6% for the multinational retailers' headquarters countries. We find that the observed effect is mainly driven by the food products, which is consistent with the appeal of Western gastronomy and with the structuring role of retail branded products. Our results suggest that global retailers bridgehead for the penetration of the Chinese market by producers from their home base.
    Keywords: Multinational retailers;China;Imports
    JEL: L81 F14 F23
    Date: 2016–01
  13. By: Sergey Zhavoronkov (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Konstantin Yanovskiy (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Kirill Rodionov (Financial research Institute, RF Finance Ministry)
    Abstract: The paper is based on the comparative analysis of the episodes of Surges and cuts in spending (old and some new market democracies). We tried to explain surges and cuts by some broadly discussed in the literature factors affecting governments' abilities to balance the budget (such as territorial separatism, the long run domination of the left- or right-wing parties; left or right-wing government etc). Much attention is paid to the phenomenon of universal suffrage, which caused rise to power modern left-wing parties and strong special interest groups within the bureaucracy. Our analysis reaches the following conclusions: First, most political factors are time and case sensitive; however, those factors that depend on universal suffrage consistent throughout all periods and countries. Second, a severe crisis usually opens the window of opportunity that is necessary to cut public expenditure, while the favorable economic conditions stimulate spikes in government spending. Third, the most effective way to curb the instability of public finance is to form a political coalition of nationalists and free market supporters.
    Keywords: Separatism, political competition, budget deficit, universal suffrage, window of opportunity
    JEL: D72 D78 H11 H62 N40
    Date: 2015
  14. By: Wanat, Stanisław; Papież, Monika; Śmiech, Sławomir
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to investigate causal relations between the insurance market development and economic growth in ten transition European Union member countries in the period between 1993 and 2013. The analysis is conduced with the use of bootstrap panel causality approach proposed by Kónya (2006), which allows for simultaneous inclusion of both cross-sectional dependence and country-specific heterogeneity. Various types of dependencies between economic growth and the insurance market development (both in terms of the global insurance market and in the division into life insurance and non-life insurance) are identified in the study, and these findings confirm the results obtained in the majority of other papers, which report differences in the role of insurance and benefits various economies derive from the insurance market.
    Keywords: insurance market, economic growth, panel Granger causality test, transition EU member countries
    JEL: C33 G22 O16
    Date: 2016–01–25
  15. By: Bui, Tuan; Nguyen, Cuong; Pham, Phuong
    Abstract: This paper investigates the process of reducing poverty in ethnic minority households. Using two recent Vietnam household surveys, we find that ethnic minority households are more likely to be persistently poor and less likely to be persistently non-poor than ethnic majority households. The within-group component generated by the variation in income within each ethnicity group explains more than 90 percent of the change in total inequality. Income redistribution plays an important role in decreasing the poverty gap and decreasing poverty severity. Different ethnic groups have different poverty patterns, which should be noted when designing policies to alleviate poverty and inequality.
    Keywords: Ethnic minority; household income; inequality; poverty; decomposition
    JEL: D1 D6
    Date: 2015–12–25
  16. By: Miron, Liliana; Lup, Aurel
    Abstract: The agricultural performances depend, on the one hand, on the volume, structure and quality of the resources allotted, and, on the other hand, on their management, according to the economic system and to the national policies in the field. This article draws a parallel between the two agricultural systems, i.e. the socialist-planned type and the private one, typical of the market economy. The following periods are compared: 1986-1989 for the former type and 2006-2009 for the latter type of agriculture. The comparison targets the main resources: the agricultural real estate (surface, structure and quality), land reclamations and fertilizers. Between 1986 and 1989, the agriculture benefited from generous resources: over three million ha equipped for irrigations, modern orchards and vineyards, large amounts of fertilizers; as a whole, a more intensive technological system in terms of inputs. The yields increased, especially in cereals. Two decades later, i.e. between 2006 and 2009, the agriculture became extensive. Irrigation decreased by 10 times, a large part of the vineyards and orchards were destroyed, the amount of fertilizers was reduced to 1/3 compared to the 1986-1989 period. In terms of performance, the Romanian agriculture became extensive during the market economy, but there are relatively few differences in the results expressed by the yield level. These express the difference in the technological level between the two periods, due to several causes that we are going to analyze in the article.
    Keywords: Performances, land reclamation, planed economy, market economy
    JEL: Q13 Q15 Q24 Q25 R52
    Date: 2015–11–20
  17. By: Vlad, Mihaela Cristina; Cujbescu, Dan
    Abstract: This article examines the Region South-West Oltenia development acreage main vegetable crops in the period 2000-2013, bearing in mind the current situation of Romanian agriculture is the direct result of a specific rural way of life, requiring intervention not so much by the Common Agricultural Policy measures such as economic, fiscal, social policy, etc. Thus, based on data processed by the National Statistics Institute, TEMPO-Online time series, and their interpretation by methods of statistical analysis were able to highlight the fluctuations that have occurred during this period.
    Keywords: Agriculture, countryside, farmland
    JEL: Q18 R11 R12 R15
    Date: 2015–11–20
  18. By: Dan S. Rickman (Oklahoma State University); Hongbo Wang (Oklahoma State University)
    Abstract: In this paper, we apply a spatial equilibrium growth model (Glaeser and Tobio, 2008) to examine relative housing price growth across the provinces and municipalities of mainland China for 1999-2013. The spatial equilibrium growth model is built upon the traditional static Rosen- Roback spatial equilibrium model. A distinguishing feature is the addition of a regionally- varying elasticity of housing supply. A primary finding is the significant geographical differences in housing price growth and the importance of differences in regional housing supply in explaining the differences in housing price growth. Regions in the East had the most inelastic housing supply, while northern regions had the most elastic housing supply.
    Keywords: Chinese housing markets, Housing supply elasticity, Urban economics, Economic geography,
    JEL: R00
    Date: 2016–02
  19. By: Friedrich Kunz; Alexander Zerrahn
    Abstract: We employ a detailed two-stage model to simulate the operation of the Central Eastern European electricity market and network. Implementing different cases of coordination in congestion management between national transmission system operators, numerical results show the beneficial impact of closer cooperation. Specific steps comprise the sharing of network and dispatch information, cross-border counter-trading, and multilateral redispatch in a flow-based congestion management framework. Efficiency gains are accompanied by distributional effects. Closer economic cooperation becomes especially relevant against the background of changing spatial generation patterns, deeper international integration ofnational systems, and spillovers of national developments to adjacent systems.
    Keywords: Electricity, congestion management, network modeling, Europe
    JEL: C63 L51 L94
    Date: 2016
  20. By: Jens K. Perret (Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW))
    Abstract: Using a basic growth accounting approach it is deduced how far the regional knowledge infrastructure plays any significant role across the regions of the Russian Federation. Aside from aspects of the size of the regional innovation system, like the number of researchers and students, it is discussed in how far the inflow and outflow of knowledge plays a role in determining the economic growth. The study shows thereby that while the Russian growth dynamics are indeed driven by the exploitation of natural resources, foremost of oil and gas, a significant part of Russian growth is due to its innovation system. This shows that innovation oriented growth politics as promoted by former president Dmitry Medvedev do have a solid foundation to be built on.
    Keywords: Economic Growth, Russian Federation, Knowledge, Innovations
    JEL: O31 P25
    Date: 2015–04
  21. By: Micu, Ana Ruxandra; Alecu, Ioan Niculae; Micu, Marius Mihai
    Abstract: This work aims to present a study which consisted of researching, analyzing and interpreting statistical data, combined with theoretical aspects that allowed assessing the state of agricultural cooperatives existing in Romania and the economic and financial situation recorded in 2014. Thus, at the end of 2014 in Romania there were 690 agricultural cooperatives. Most of these are found in the South-Muntenia, respectively North-West, totalling 231 cooperatives. Also, 40% of all agricultural cooperatives are represented by the vegetal genre. In 2014 agricultural cooperatives in Romania totalled a turnover of 383 million lei, representing about 85 million euros, a significant sum indeed. The most significant income were achieved in South-Muntenia about 124 million lei (almost a third of the total income registered by the cooperatives), representing 28 million.
    Keywords: Agricultural cooperatives, vegetal sector, Romania
    JEL: Q13
    Date: 2015–11–20
  22. By: Andric, Vladimir; Arsic, Milojko; Nojkovic, Aleksandra
    Abstract: We analyze public debt sustainability in Serbia between 2004Q3 and 2014Q3. The results of our analysis are: i) public debt to GDP ratio is on unsustainable path, according to the results of unit root tests; ii) the response of primary fiscal balance to public debt accumulation is insufficient to mean revert the upward trend in government debt; iii) the government budget constraint has deteriorated more since the beginning of the Great Recession.
    Keywords: Serbia,public debt sustainability,unit root tests,fiscal reaction functions,Great Recession
    JEL: C54 H63 P20
    Date: 2016–02–09
  23. By: Sun, Lixin; Huang, Yuqin
    Abstract: In this paper, employing several econometric techniques, the authors construct a financial stress index (CNFSI) and a financial conditions index (CNFCI) to measure the instability of China's financial system. The indices are based on the monthly data collected from China's inter-bank markets, stock markets, foreign exchange markets and debt markets. Using these two indices, they identify the episodes of systemic financial stress, and then evaluate the indices. The empirical results suggest that the CNFSI performs better than the CNFCI. Furthermore, the authors propose four leading indicators for monitoring China's financial instability, and provide a primary early warning system for China's macroprudential regulations.
    Keywords: financial stress index,financial conditions index,China's financial system,leading indicators,early warning system
    JEL: G18 C43 E44
    Date: 2016

This nep-tra issue is ©2016 by J. David Brown. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.