nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2016‒02‒04
thirty-two papers chosen by
J. David Brown
United States Census Bureau

  1. The Effect of Unemployment Benefit Generosity on Unemployment Duration: Quasi-experimental Evidence from Slovenia By Primož Dolenc; Suzana Laporšek; Matija Vodopivec; Milan Vodopivec
  2. Is it worth issuing bonds in China? Evidence from stock market reactions By Klein, Paul-Olivier; Weill, Laurent
  3. Political Origins and Implications of the Economic Crisis in Russia By Sergei Guriev
  4. Breaking Out of Poverty Traps: Internal Migration and Interregional Convergence in Russia By Sergei Guriev; Elena Vakulenko
  5. Weather shocks, maize yields and adaptation in rural China By Jean-Francois Maystadt; Ma Jiliang Jiliang
  6. The Relationship between Social Capital and Health in China By Xindong Xue; Marshall Mo; W. Robert Reed
  7. Extending the regional HERMIN model by adding components of territorial cohesion By Zbigniew Mogiła; Janusz Zaleski
  8. A Comprehensive Study of Regional Labor Markets: The Structural Imbalances and the Behavior of Participants. Monitoring of Wages, the Experience of Reforming the System of Remuneration of Public Sector Employees By Maleva, Tatiana Mikhailovna; Kirillova, M. K.; Mkrtchyan, Nikita; Florinskaya, Yulia; Lyashok, V.
  9. Bioeconomy in Poland: Condition and potential for development of the biomass market By Gołębiewski, Jarosław
  10. Driving Forces of CO2 Emissions in Emerging Countries: LMDI Decomposition Analysis on China and India’s Residential Sector By Yeongjun Yeo; Dongnyok Shim; Jeong-Dong Lee; Jorn Altmann
  11. Trading hard hats for combat helmets: The economics of rebellion in eastern Ukraine By Yuri M. Zhukov`
  12. Beggar thy neighbor or beggar thy domestic firms? evidence from 2000-2011 Chinese customs data By Fatum, Rasmus; Liu, Runjuan; Tong, Jiadong; Xu, Jiayun
  13. The Role of Innovation and Globalization Strategies in Post-Crisis Recovery By Golikova Victoria; Kuznetsov Boris
  14. Eciency Snakes and Energy Ladders: A (meta-)frontier demand analysis of electricity consumption eciency in Chinese households By David C Broadstock; Jiajia Li; Dayong Zhang
  15. The Mechanisms and the Results of the Agrarian Reform in Post-Soviet Russia By Uzun, Vasily Yakimovich; Shagaida, Natalia
  16. Geographical Concentration of Soviet Industry: A Comparative Analysis By Kofanov, D.; Mikhailova, T.; Shurygin, A.
  17. Measurement of territorial cohesion. Defining the measures of the measurable aspects of this concept. Case of Poland By Tomasz Komornicki; Dorota Ciołek
  18. Collective Action Abroad: How Foreign Investors Organize Evidence from Foreign Business Associations In the Russian Federation By Michael Rochlitz
  19. Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices By Sergey V. Smirnov; Nikolai V. Kondrashov; Anna V. Petronevich
  20. Analysis of the Effects of Liberalization of Foreign Trade of the Russian Federation in the Framework of Russia's Accession to the WTO and Regional Economic Integration By Guschin, Evgeniy; Istomin, R.; Ptashkina, M. G.; Taganov, B. V.
  21. International Gas Projects of Russia in the Context of a Changing Economic Environment and Paradigm By Nataliya S. Karpova
  22. The Information Industry: Measuring Russia By International Standards By Gulnara I. Abdrakhmanova; Galina G. Kovaleva; Natalia V. Bulchenko
  23. Recommendations for applying territorial cohesion concept for conducting development policy. Territorial aspects of public policies. By Jacek Szlachta
  24. Stress events in the Hungarian stock market By Dömötör, Barbara; Váradi, Kata
  26. Crisis, contagion and international policy spillovers under foreign ownership of banks By Michał Brzoza-Brzezina; Marcin Kolasa; Krzysztof Makarski
  27. Resources, experience and perseverance in entrepreneurs' perceived likelihood of success in an emerging economy By Quan Hoang Vuong; Thu Hang Do; Thu Trang Vuong
  28. Profitability Life Cycle of Foreign Direct Investment and its Application to the Czech Republic By Filip Novotny
  29. Northern territory of the Russian Federation, Europe and America: Comparative analysis of the prospects for rural development By Nikulin, Alexander Michailovich; Trotsuk, Irina Vladimirovna; Kopoteva, Inna
  30. Global or domestic? Which shocks drive inflation in European small open economies? By Aleksandra Hałka; Jacek Kotłowski
  31. The role of bank credit in business financing in Poland By Anna Białek-Jaworska; Natalia Nehrebecka
  32. Market correlation structure changes around the Great Crash By Rui-Qi Han; Wen-Jie Xie; Xiong Xiong; Wei Zhang; Wei-Xing Zhou

  1. By: Primož Dolenc; Suzana Laporšek; Matija Vodopivec; Milan Vodopivec
    Abstract: The paper analyses the effects of a 2011 increase in the unemployment benefit replacement rate on the job-finding rate of Slovenian benefit recipients. Using registry data on the universe of Slovenian unemployment benefit recipients, we exploit legislative changes that selectively increased the replacement rates for certain groups of workers while leaving them unchanged for others. Applying this quasi-experimental approach, we find that increasing the replacement rate significantly decreases the hazard rate of the transition from unemployment to employment, with an implied elasticity of the hazard rate with respect to benefit replacement rate being 0.7 to 0.9. The results also show that increase of the unemployment benefit replacement rate does not affect the job-finding probability of jobseekers whose reason for unemployment is employer exit, and that the effects of the increase of replacement rate are present only upon exit to employment and not to inactivity.
    JEL: J64 J65
    Date: 2016–01–20
  2. By: Klein, Paul-Olivier (BOFIT); Weill, Laurent (BOFIT)
    Abstract: There has been a considerable expansion of corporate bond markets in China in the recent years. The objective of this study is to examine the stock market reaction following bond issuance by Chinese companies. In addition to analyzing for positive or negative reactions to bond issues, we consider the influences of ownership and management characteristics on the stock market reaction. Applying an event-study methodology to a sample of 481 bond issues of 347 Chinese companies over the period 2009–2013, the univariate results show that Chinese bond issues typically generate a positive stock market reaction. The reaction is only significantly positive, however, in the case of central state-owned companies (as opposed to those owned by local or provincial governments). The multivariate results indicate that insider ownership influences stock market reaction to a bond issue, while management characteristics have no discernable impact.
    Keywords: China; emerging markets; corporate bonds; event study
    JEL: G14 P34
    Date: 2015–12–15
  3. By: Sergei Guriev (Département d'économie)
    Abstract: In this paper Sergei Guriev focuses on the postcrisis slowdown, which mushroomed into the current crisis. The goal is to explain the origins of the slowdown, understand its political implications, and analyze its interaction with the 2014 crisis in Crimea and eastern Ukraine.
    Keywords: Russian economic cirsis; Russian economic performance; Political implications of the russian stagnation
    Date: 2015–05
  4. By: Sergei Guriev (Département d'économie); Elena Vakulenko (Higher School of Economics (HSE))
    Abstract: We study barriers to labor mobility using panel data on gross region-to-region migration flows in Russia in 1996–2010. Using both parametric and semiparametric methods and controlling for region-to-region pairwise fixed effects, we find a non-monotonic relationship between income and migration. In richer regions, higher incomes result in lower migration outflows. However, in the poorest regions, an increase in incomes results in higher emigration. This is consistent with the presence of geographical poverty traps: potential migrants want to leave the poor regions but cannot afford to move. We also show that economic growth and financial development have allowed most Russian regions to grow out of poverty traps bringing down interregional differentials of wages, incomes and unemployment rates.
    Keywords: Labor mobility; Poverty traps; Liquidity constraints
    JEL: J61 R23
    Date: 2015–08
  5. By: Jean-Francois Maystadt; Ma Jiliang Jiliang
    Abstract: Based on panel household data collected between 2004 and 2010, we assess the impact of weather shocks on maize yields in the two main producing regions in China, the Northern spring maize zone and the Yellow-Huai Valley summer maize zone. Temperature, drought, wet conditions, and precipitations have detrimental effects on maize yields in the two maize zones. Nonetheless, the magnitude of those effects appears to be low compared to other parts of the world. Adaptation seems to be key in the region where the largest impact is estimated. On the contrary, the lower impact found in the other region, the Yellow-Huai Valley summer maize zone, is low but likely to intensify.
    Keywords: Weather shocks, Adaptation, Maize yield, China
    JEL: I32 Q54
    Date: 2016
  6. By: Xindong Xue; Marshall Mo; W. Robert Reed (University of Canterbury)
    Abstract: This paper uses the 2005 and 2006 China General Social Survey (CGSS) to study the relationship between social capital and health in China. It is the most comprehensive analysis of this subject to date, both in the sizes of the samples it analyses, in the number of social capital variables it investigates, and in its treatment of endogeneity. We identify social trust, social relationships, and social networks as important determinants of self-reported health. The magnitude of the estimated effects are economically important, in some cases being of the same size or larger than the effects associated with age and income. Our findings suggest that there is scope for social capital to be a significant policy tool for improving health outcomes in China.
    Keywords: Social capital, trust, self-reported health, China, ordered probit regression, heteroskedastic ordered probit regression, interaction effects, endogeneity.
    JEL: I1 I18 P25 O53
    Date: 2016–02–01
  7. By: Zbigniew Mogiła (Wrocław Regional Development Agency); Janusz Zaleski (Wrocław Regional Development Agency)
    Abstract: Every region functions in its specific interregional environment. Through the structure of socio-economic connections, regions affect each other. Hence, territorial cohesion of an individual voivodship – viewed as a territorial optimum- is determined by what is going on in other regions (e.g. their economic structure, technological progress, changes in aggregated demand and supply, crisis resilience, etc.). The scale of this determination depends upon interregional connections. Due to lack of data we concentrate only on interregional trade flows and take into account two variations of determination of the trade structure: based on a “potential” criterion and on an “accessibility” criterion. In this paper we analyse how structural changes as well as Cohesion Policy interventions affect the development of Polish NUTS-2 regions through the network of interregional trade flows. With the novel system of interrelated HERMIN regional models we try to face that challenge by taking into account economic specifics of all the 16 voivodships. This, in turn, allows us to draw several conclusions concerning territorialisation of development policies which might be carried over to the real policy making process.
    Keywords: Territorial cohesion, Cohesion policy, HERMIN, macroeconomic modelling, interregional trade, territorial optimum
    JEL: R15
    Date: 2015–08
  8. By: Maleva, Tatiana Mikhailovna (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kirillova, M. K. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Mkrtchyan, Nikita (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Florinskaya, Yulia (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Lyashok, V. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: Decrease in number and aging of the working population of Russia is changing the scope and structure of labor supply. The functioning of the economy in this new environment increases the uncertainty, the study updates the structural characteristics of supply and demand, allowing participants to assess the behavior of the labor market. As part of this work is considered an internal reallocation of labor (internal migration), the characteristics of external labor migration, study personnel capacities and improve the performance of the economy as an example of regional labor markets. The empirical basis for the analysis of regional labor markets is a comprehensive study that brings together representatives of management survey of enterprises and population in the age of economic activity between the two regions of the Russian Federation, the most complete reprezentirujushchih studied processes. The data allow to analyze the organizational and technical changes in recent years at the enterprises of the real sector, and their performance, installation, and management's assessment of companies, issues of staffing. Integration with survey data population of the regions makes it possible to analyze the current and potential imbalances in the labor market.
    Keywords: labor market, regions, Russia
    Date: 2015–10–01
  9. By: Gołębiewski, Jarosław
    Abstract: The aim of the study is to determine the condition of bioeconomy in Poland. Particular attention was paid to the discussion of the objectives and priorities of the national and EU bioeconomy policies and to economic instruments to support the implementation of these policies. The study also covers the analysis of condition of the biomass production sector in Poland, taking into account regional differences. The study was based on the source literature on the subject, programming documents of the European Union and guiding principles for the national bioeconomy development policy in Poland. Statistical data by Eurostat and FAOSTAT were used for the evaluation of the potential of the bioeconomy. The research has confirmed that Poland has many traditional industries, which not only produce the biomass, but also process raw materials of biological origin. Bioeconomy is one of the largest and the most important segments of the Polish economy and an important component of the EU market.
    Keywords: bioeconomy, biomass, bioenergy, biomaterials, economic policy, Agricultural and Food Policy,
    Date: 2015
  10. By: Yeongjun Yeo (College of Engineering, Seoul National University); Dongnyok Shim (College of Engineering, Seoul National University); Jeong-Dong Lee (College of Engineering, Seoul National University); Jorn Altmann (College of Engineering, Seoul National University)
    Abstract: The main objective of this paper is to identify and analyze the key drivers behind changes of CO2 emissions in the residential sectors of the emerging economies, China and India. This paper also aims to draw policy implications in terms of finding challenges and opportunities to reduce residential CO2 emissions in both countries. For the analysis, we investigate to what extent changes in residential emissions are due to changes in energy emissions coefficients, energy consumption structure, energy intensity, households’ income, and population size. We decompose the changes in residential CO2 emissions in China and India into these five contributing factors from 1990 to 2011 by applying the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method. According to our results, the increase in per capita income level is the biggest contributor to the increase of residential CO2 emissions, while the energy intensity effect had the largest effect on CO2 emissions reduction in the residential sectors in both countries. This implies that investments for energy savings, technological improvements, and energy efficiency policies were effective in mitigating CO2 emissions. It is also found that the change in CO2 emission coefficients for fuels, which is the ratio of CO2 emissions arising from consumption of fuels to the consumption level slowed down the increase of residential emissions. In addition, results demonstrate that changes in the population and energy consumption structure drove the increase in CO2 emissions.
    Keywords: CO2 Emissions, Emerging Economy, Residential Sector, Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) Method.
    JEL: C02 C15 C43 C65 O32 O33 Q01 Q48 Q55 Q56 R11 R22
    Date: 2015–12
  11. By: Yuri M. Zhukov`
    Abstract: Using new micro-level data on violence in Eastern Ukraine, this paper evaluates the relative merits of ?identity-based? and ?economic? explanations of civil conflict. The first view expects rebellion to be most likely in areas home to the geographic concentration of ethnolinguistic minorities. The second expects more rebel activity where the opportunity costs of insurrection are low. Evidence from the armed conflict in Ukraine supports the second view more than the first. A municipality?s prewar employment mix is a more robust predictor of rebel activity than local ethnolinguistic composition. Municipalities more exposed to trade shocks with Russia experienced a higher intensity of rebel violence throughout the conflict. Such localities also fell under rebel control earlier�? and took longer for the government to liberate�? than municipalities where the labor force was less dependent on exports to Russia.
  12. By: Fatum, Rasmus (University of Alberta); Liu, Runjuan (University of Alberta); Tong, Jiadong (Nankai University); Xu, Jiayun (Tsinghua University)
    Abstract: The premise of beggar-thy-neighbor policies and currency wars is that currency depreciations lead to export growth. This premise, however, is far from validated as the existing economic literature largely either fails to find significant trade flow effects of currency fluctuations or finds that these effects are only minor. We revisit the question of whether currency fluctuations are systematically associated with trade flows using rich and unique firm level Chinese customs data on China-US trade over the 2000 to 2011 period that allows us to consider firm involvement in processing trade and firm dynamics in both export and import markets. Our firm-level based estimation of trade elasticities suggest that the China-US trade balance strongly responds to changes in the CNY/USD rate. This finding is particularly pronounced when we distinguish between ordinary and processing firms. Our results thus suggest that the influence of exchange rates on trade flows is stronger than previously thought and add insights to the policy debate on beggar-thy-neighbor policies and currency wars by, at least in principle, validating the underlying premise of such policies.
    JEL: F14 F31 F41
    Date: 2015–11–01
  13. By: Golikova Victoria (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Kuznetsov Boris (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The aim of the research is to conduct an empirical investigation and reveal what types of globalization and innovation strategies in turbulent and unfavorable regional institutional environment are most likely to be associated with different trajectories of Russian manufacturing firms’ performance in 2007-2012. We employ the results of empirical survey of 1000 medium and large enterprises in manufacturing (2009) linked to financial data from Amadeus database and the data on the regional institutional environment. We test that (1) introduction of innovations before the crisis ceteris paribus helped the firms to successfully pass the crisis and recover. We expect that (2) companies that became globalized before the crisis (via importing of intermediate and capital goods; exporting; FDI; establishment of partner linkages with foreign firms) ceteris paribus are more likely to successfully pass the crisis and grow. And (3) propose the positive effect of synergy of innovation efforts and globalization strategy of the firm. We expect that the abovementioned factors are complimentary and reinforce the ability of the firm to recover after crisis shock. We found strong support for the hypothesis that firms financing introduction of new products before the crisis and simultaneously managed to promote and sell them on the global market were rewarded by quick return to the growing path after global crisis. Other strategies, i.e. solely innovations without exporting play insignificant role while exporting without attempts to introduce new products contribute even negatively to post-crisis recover. Institutional environment also matters: in the regions with less level of corruption firms were more likely to grow after the crisis
    Keywords: firm performance; globalization; innovation; manufacturing firms; strategy
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2016
  14. By: David C Broadstock (Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu, China and Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey, UK.); Jiajia Li (Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu, China.); Dayong Zhang (Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu, China.)
    Abstract: Policy makers presently lack access to quantified estimates–and hence an explicit understanding–of energy consumption efficiency within households, creating a potential gap between true efficiency levels and the necessarily assumed efficiency levels that policy makers adopt in designing and implementing energy policy. This paper attempts to fill this information gap by empirically quantifying electricity consumption efficiency for a sample of more than 7,000 households. Adopting the recently introduced frontier demand function due to Filippini and Hunt (2011) but extending it into the metafrontier context–to control for structural heterogeneity arising from location type–it is shown that consumption efficiency is little more than 60% on average. This implies huge potential for energy reduction via the expansion of schemes to promote energy efficiency. City households, which are the wealthiest in the sample, are shown to define the metafrontier demand function (and hence have the potential to be the most efficient households), but at the same time exhibit the largest inefficiencies. These facts together allow for a potential refinement on the household energy ladder concept, suggesting that wealth affords access to the best technologies thereby increasing potential energy efficiency (the ‘traditional’ view of the household energy ladder), but complementary to this these same households are most inefficient. This has implications for numerous areas of policy, including for example the design of energy assistance schemes, identification of energy education needs/priorities as well more refined setting of subsidies/tax-credit policies.
    Keywords: Energy consumption efficiency; Frontier demand function; Chinese households.
    JEL: D12 Q41 Q48 R22
    Date: 2015–10
  15. By: Uzun, Vasily Yakimovich (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Shagaida, Natalia (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: We have systematized prerequisites of agrarian reform in Russia; generalized the theory and practice of its implementation, a comparative analysis of Stolypin's agrarian reforms and Yeltsin; assessed the positive and negative impacts of reform; formulated lessons reforms, new challenges faced in the area of restructuring of agriculture in adapting to changing market and political conditions. In the 25 years since the start of the agricultural reform russian agriculture has advanced along the path of adaptation to market conditions, it formed a new agrarian structure; provided mobility reallocation of resources between farmers; increased productivity, efficiency of use of other resources in agriculture in general. At the same time, there were new challenges: the concentration of land ownership in the hands of a few, a sharp reduction in the number of people employed in agriculture and an increase in unemployment, the redistribution of production in the country and the uneven development of rural areas, loss of the farmland from the market, a large part of imports Food in the structure of food resources, increased competition, manufacturers in the framework of the Common Economic Space, increased differentiation of rural incomes and food consumption as a whole, the unevenness of state support to agriculture areas, etc. These challenges require adequate changes in agricultural policy, the main directions of which are discussed in the present work.
    Date: 2015–10–01
  16. By: Kofanov, D. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Mikhailova, T. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Shurygin, A. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: In this paper we study the geographic concentration of industries in the Soviet Union. The distribution of economic activity in the geographical space of Russia - largely the result of long years of development of the Soviet system. Understand how and why different economic geography of Russia from the countries that have developed in a market economy, it is necessary to develop the right policy measures today. We look forward index of geographic concentration Dyurantona-Overman for manufacturing industries in the USSR in 1989 at the level of 2, 3 and 4-digit code, SIC. We then analyze the degree of geographical concentration of different industries and a comparative analysis with other countries. In general, the industrial sector in Russia / USSR weakly concentrated geographically. However, we conclude that the concentration of weak partly due to the geography of the country: the large distances between the centers of population and geographic dispersion of economic activity. However, the most significant difference from the late Soviet Union countries with a market economy - a weak concentration of high-tech industries, it is those who get the greatest benefit from the positive externalities of concentration.
    Keywords: industries, Soviet Union, geography
    Date: 2015–10–01
  17. By: Tomasz Komornicki (Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland); Dorota Ciołek (Institute for Development, Sopot, Poland; University of Gdansk, Faculty of Economics, Department of Macroeconomics, Gdańsk, Poland)
    Abstract: This paper presents an attempt to measure territorial cohesion in Polish circumstances. For different reasons such as stage of knowledge and availability of data and information only measurement of territorial capital appeared fully feasible in Poland in a current circumstances. The concept of territorial keys has been applied in order to identify key elements of territorial cohesion related to its territorial capital dimension. Those elements have been measured and mapped. Using statistical analysis of principal component the three components of territorial capital as a key aspect of territorial cohesion were identified allowing to achieve a synthetic index of territorial cohesion (in its territorial capital dimension).
    Keywords: territorial cohesion, territorial capital
    JEL: R11 R12 R58
    Date: 2015–08
  18. By: Michael Rochlitz (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: What role can collective action by foreign investors play in an environment characterized by incomplete institutions? We study this question by looking on foreign business associations in the Russian Federation. By interviewing 17 foreign business associations and conducting an online survey of their member firms, we find that business associations play an important welfare-enhancing role in providing a series of support and informational services. However, they do not play a significant role in lobbying the collective interests of their member firms, especially in the current political context in Russia where since the start of the Ukraine crisis the business community seems to have suffered a general loss of influence on political decision making
    Keywords: collective action; business associations; lobbying
    JEL: D71 D72
    Date: 2016
  19. By: Sergey V. Smirnov (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Nikolai V. Kondrashov (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Anna V. Petronevich (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper establishes a reference chronology for the Russian economic cycle from the early 1980s to mid-2015. To detect peaks and troughs, we tested nine monthly indices as reference series, three methods of seasonal adjustments (X-12-ARIMA, TRAMO/SEATS, and CAMPLET), and four methods for dating cyclical turning points (local min/max, Bry-Boschan, Harding-Pagan, and Markov-Switching model). As these more or less formal methods led to different estimates, any sensible choice was possible only on the grounds of informal considerations. The final set of turning points looks plausible and separates expansions and contractions in an explicable manner, but further discussions are needed to establish a consensus between experts
    Keywords: Economic Cycle, Turning Points, Recession, Russia
    JEL: E32
    Date: 2016
  20. By: Guschin, Evgeniy (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Russian Foreign Trade Academy); Istomin, R. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Ptashkina, M. G. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Taganov, B. V. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The study investigates the effects of liberalization of foreign trade of the Russian Federation in the process and as a result of accession to the WTO, the conclusion of preferential trade agreements, including free trade agreements with the countries of the CIS Customs Union with Kazakhstan and Belarus. Particular attention is paid to assessing the objectives of the Russian trade and integration policies, progress. The paper structured main implications of WTO accession and the establishment of the Customs Union of Russia's foreign trade, mutual trade between Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus, outlined key directions of deepening and expanding economic integration in the post-Soviet space.
    Keywords: WTO, GDP, Russia, liberalisation of trade
    Date: 2015–10–01
  21. By: Nataliya S. Karpova (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper explores the current changes in the world gas market where Russia has a wide spectrum of economic interests, international projects, as well as problems to be solved in the context with decline in demand and prices for natural gas and other energy commodities, growing contradictions and rivalry among the leading market players, political pressure and the introduction of market restrictions (sanctions). The country needs a new paradigm of development, pre-empting the future and reacting in the moment
    Keywords: world gas markets, key players, demand for energy, price volatility, the Russian gas strategy and projects, challenges of sanctions, strategies for the future.
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2015
  22. By: Gulnara I. Abdrakhmanova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Galina G. Kovaleva (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Natalia V. Bulchenko (Ministry of Telecom and Mass Communications of the Russian Federation)
    Abstract: Structural changes influenced by ICT are having an impact on production processes and the release of products in the information and communication technology (ICT) sphere and content (on the level of individual enterprises) and are resulting in the pursuit of new approaches to socio-economic development, to increase the competitiveness of the country and to participate in the international division of labour. In order to identify development priorities and prospects in the information industry we therefore need a clear understanding of what the information industry is, what its boundaries are, what forms of economic activity make up this economic segment, and which products form the corresponding market. This working paper summarizes the results of a study to ‘measure’ the information industry as a segment of the economy producing goods and services linked to ICT and content. Methodological approaches are proposed to establish the ‘Information industry’ definitions based on the Russian Classification of Economic Activities (OKVED) and the Russian Classification of Products by Economic Activities (OKPD) in line with international standards and recommendations by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Key indicators of the development of the information industry are also tentatively calculated for Russia and compared with countries abroad. The content of this paper is based on research results commissioned by the Ministry of Telecom and Mass Communications of the Russian Federation and the outcome of evaluations and testing at a round table on the subject ‘IT industry: problems of classification and application’ round table (2014) and a session of the statistics section of the Central House of Scientists at the Russian Academy of Sciences on the subject of ‘Developing the “Information industry” and “IT industry” definitions based on the OKVED2 and OKPD2’ ( The paper was also supported by the Basic Research Program at the National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE) and the subsidy granted to the HSE by the Government of the Russian Federation for the implementation of the Global Competitiveness Program.
    Keywords: Content and Media sector, ICT sector, information and communication technology (ICT), information industry
    JEL: C1 C5 C83 L63 L81 L82 L86 L96 M2 O14
    Date: 2015
  23. By: Jacek Szlachta (Institute for Development, Sopot, Poland; Warsaw School of Economics, Warsaw, Poland)
    Abstract: This article summarizes the results of the research conducted by the Institute for the Development focused on the introduction of the spatial concept, mainly territorial cohesion, to development policy, in the context of growth, concepts. Poland is in this respect has outpaced other European countries. However, many aspects of programming and implementation of policies enhancing growth in the territorial context need strengthening. The most important challenges and solutions are presented in this paper.
    Keywords: territorial cohesion, policy territorialisation, development policy
    JEL: R11 R12 R58
    Date: 2015–08
  24. By: Dömötör, Barbara; Váradi, Kata
    Abstract: Central clearing and the role of central counterparties (CCP) has gained on importance in the financial sector, since counterparty risk of the trading is to be managed by them. The regulation has turned towards them lately, by defining several processes, how CCPs should measure and manage their risk. Stress situation is an important term of the regulation, however it is not specified clearly, how stress should be identified. This paper provides a possible definition of stress event based on the existing risk management methodology: the usage of risk measure oversteps, and investigates the potential stress periods of the last years on the Hungarian stock market. According to the results the definition needs further calibration based on the magnitude of the cross-sectional data. The paper examines furthermore whether stress is to be predicted from market liquidity. The connection of liquidity and market turmoil proved to be contrary to the expectations; liquidity shortage was rather a consequence, than a forecaster phenomenon in the tested period.
    Keywords: EMIR regulation, Value at Risk models, market liquidity measurement, stress definition
    JEL: G18 G28 G32
    Date: 2016–01–20
  25. By: Makhkamov Bakhtiyor Shukhratovich
    Abstract: In article the role and value of information and communication technologies in Uzbekistan, as engine of all economy, investments promoting attraction to the country, to creation of new workplaces, introduction of progressive technologies in production and management, that is finally – to the stable economic growth and increase of a standard of living are researched. Questions of formation and development of National information system which main objectives is development of telecommunication technologies, networks and infrastructure of communication, creation of information systems of automation of activity of government bodies and the centralized databases in the republic are also considered. Key words: information and communication technologies (ICT), legislative base of ICT, National information system
    Date: 2015–12
  26. By: Michał Brzoza-Brzezina; Marcin Kolasa; Krzysztof Makarski
    Abstract: This paper checks how international spillovers of shocks and policies are modified when banks are foreign owned. To this end we build a twocountry macroeconomic model with banking sectors that are owned by residents of one (big and foreign) country. Consistently with empirical findings, we find that foreign ownership of banks amplifies spillovers from foreign shocks. It also strenghtens the international transmission of monetary and macroprudential policies. We next replicate the financial crisis in the euro area and show how, by preventing bank capital outflow in 2009, the Polish regulatory authorities managed to reduce its contagion to Poland. We also show that under foreign bank ownership such policy is strongly prefered to a recapitalization of domestic banks.
    Keywords: foreign-owned banks, monetary and macroprudential policy, international spillovers, DSGE models with banking
    JEL: E32 E44 E58
    Date: 2016
  27. By: Quan Hoang Vuong; Thu Hang Do; Thu Trang Vuong
    Abstract: This paper introduces new results obtained from a statistical investigation into a3071-observation data set collected from a Vietnamese nationwideentrepreneurship survey. From established relationships, such factors aspreparedness, financial resources and participation in social networks areconfirmed to have significant effects on entrepreneurial decisions. Entrepreneurs,both financially constrained and unconstrained, who have a business plan tend tostart their entrepreneurial ventures earlier. Also, financial constraints have aprofound impact on the entrepreneurial decisions. When perceiving the likelihoodof success to be high, an entrepreneur shows the tendency for prompt action onbusiness ideas. But when seeing the risk of prolonging the waiting time to firstrevenue, a prospective entrepreneur would be more likely to wait for morefavorable conditions despite the vagueness of "favorable".Additionally, empirical computations indicate that there is a 41.3% probabilitythat an extant entrepreneur who is generating revenue sees high chance ofsuccess. Past work and entrepreneurial experiences also have positive impactson both the entrepreneurial decisions and perceived chance of success.
    Keywords: Entrepreneurship; new venture; transitional economies
    JEL: L26 M13 P27
    Date: 2016–01–18
  28. By: Filip Novotny
    Abstract: The main driver of economic growth in the Czech Republic has been foreign direct investment (FDI). The decisions of foreign direct investors are profit-seeking, so a deterioration in the income balance of the current account has been observed as a consequence. The profitability profile of FDI is estimated on a panel of countries and then applied to the Czech Republic. The FDI profitability life cycle has a non-linear time profile with a duration of between 15 and 16 years. Maximum profitability is reached in the 7th to 8th year after the initial investment. Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries have a higher return on capital compared to the overall sample of countries. Knowing the FDI profitability life cycle enables us to construct various scenarios for the evolution of total FDI earnings depending on the future FDI inflows (changing FDI stock) assumed.
    Keywords: Balance of payments, life cycle, profits from FDI
    JEL: C33 F21 F32
    Date: 2015–12
  29. By: Nikulin, Alexander Michailovich (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Trotsuk, Irina Vladimirovna (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kopoteva, Inna (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: Currently, large and Nonchernozem northern European Russia and the Russian Far East and Siberia (though, like most foreign circumpolar countries) are originally desert or zapustevayuschie space in terms of rural development. On the other hand, a variety of natural, technological and demographic-migratory factors such as global warming, new technologies and social innovation, demographic change, migration can create unexpected new prospects for rural development in the northern and Russian and foreign non-black areas. The paper summarized the Russian and foreign (Scandinavian countries, Finland, USA, Canada) experience of rural development at regional and local levels, are considered public, business and non-profit programs and projects for rural development, allowing some to formulate forecasts and proposals for rural development in the northern the Russian Federation, taking into account international experience.
    Keywords: Northern European Russia, Russian Far East, Siberia, rural development
    Date: 2015–10–01
  30. By: Aleksandra Hałka; Jacek Kotłowski
    Abstract: In the paper we investigate, which shocks drive inflation in small open economies. We proceed in two steps. First, we use the SVAR approach to identify the global shocks. In the second step we regress the disaggregated price indices for selected European economies - the Czech Republic, Poland and Sweden- on the global shocks controlling for the domestic variables. Our results show that in two out of three analyzed countries the fluctuations of inflation are to the largest extent determined by the cyclical movements of the domestic output gap with the commodity shock being also the important source of inflation variability while for the third country the contribution of the commodity shock dominates over the output gap in explaining inflation fluctuations. We find that the direct impact of the global demand shock on the price dynamics is negligible, while it affects the country’s inflation mainly through the domestic output gap. The role of the non-commodity global supply shock is less prominent, however, this shock, interpreted to some extent as a globalization shock, for most of the analyzed period lowers the prices of semi-durable and durable goods and therefore the inflation. Nonetheless, in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, this shock reversed what may be interpreted as a weakening of the globalization process.
    Keywords: Inflation, monetary policy, globalization, disaggregated price indices, output gap, exchange rate pass-through, SVAR models.
    JEL: C53 E31 E37 E52
    Date: 2016
  31. By: Anna Białek-Jaworska (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw); Natalia Nehrebecka (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw; National Bank of Poland)
    Abstract: The purpose of the paper is to verify the applicability of the pecking order theory to Polish non-finance companies’ inclination to use credit-based financing, as well as to indicate the long-term and short-term bank credit use determinants, including the monetary policy impact and the year effect. The analysis covers a sample of 800,000 observations across the period 1995-2011, using the GMM sys-tem method. The impact of foreign and government ownership, the share of exports, profitability, liquidity, fixed assets collateral and monetary policy are the determinants of the long-term and short-term bank loan in business financing investigated in the study. For small and medium-sized enterprises, a negative correlation is found between profitability and both long- and short-term loan financing, as well as between liquidity and short-term loan financing, ac-cording to what the pecking order theory assumes. A negative impact of restrictive monetary policy effected via interest rate and rate of exchange channels on Polish firms’ decisions as regards financing their business with short-term bank loan is found. The effect of the current and previous period payment gridlocks on short-term bank loan financing experienced by small and medium-sized enterprises should help banks adjust their loan offer to SMEs’ needs. The correlation between the bankruptcy risk level and companies’ short-term borrowing decisions – positive in the group of large firms and ad-verse among SMEs – should guide banks’ loan committees when modifying their creditworthiness analysis and loan application verification procedures. The use of (S)VAR panel method for investigating the response of the bank loan financing level to the interest rate, exchange rate and credit risk disturbance (shock) are the original aspects of the study. The empirical evidence that a higher share of liquid securities in assets reduces the use of short-term loan and that in small firms its level in a previous period is positively correlated with the use of short-term bank loan financing is the added value of the paper.
    Keywords: bank loan, long-term bank loan, short-term bank loan, pecking order theory, system GMM, (S)VAR
    JEL: G32 E52 G21 C23 C33
    Date: 2016
  32. By: Rui-Qi Han (ECUST); Wen-Jie Xie (ECUST); Xiong Xiong (TJU); Wei Zhang (TJU); Wei-Xing Zhou (ECUST)
    Abstract: We perform a comparative analysis of the Chinese stock market around the occurrence of the 2008 crisis based on the random matrix analysis of high-frequency stock returns of 1228 stocks listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges. Both raw correlation matrix and partial correlation matrix with respect to the market index in two time periods of one year are investigated. We find that the Chinese stocks have stronger average correlation and partial correlation in 2008 than in 2007 and the average partial correlation is significantly weaker than the average correlation in each period. Accordingly, the largest eigenvalue of the correlation matrix is remarkably greater than that of the partial correlation matrix in each period. Moreover, each largest eigenvalue and its eigenvector reflect an evident market effect, while other deviating eigenvalues do not. We find no evidence that deviating eigenvalues contain industrial sectorial information. Surprisingly, the eigenvectors of the second largest eigenvalues in 2007 and of the third largest eigenvalues in 2008 are able to distinguish the stocks from the two exchanges. We also find that the component magnitudes of the some largest eigenvectors are proportional to the stocks' capitalizations.
    Date: 2016–01

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