|
on Transition Economics |
| By: | Milena Nikolova; Monica Roman; Klaus F. Zimmermann |
| Abstract: | The fall of socialism in Central and Eastern Europe restored ordinary citizens’ rights and freedoms and ended their political and social isolation. While the freedom of movement was quickly embraced, civil society revival lagged due to the eroded civic norms, declining social capital, and worsening economic conditions. In this paper, we examine the link between the out-migration of relatives and friends and the pro-social behavior of the left behinds in two post-socialist countries—Bulgaria and Romania—the EU’s poorest, unhappiest, and among the most corrupt members. We show that having close contacts abroad is consistently positively associated with civic engagement and that the cultural transmission of norms from abroad could be driving the results. Specifically, the strength of the civic engagement culture of the family or friend’s destination matters for the pro-social behavior of respondents in the home countries. Our results imply that the emigration of family and friends may have positive but previously undocumented consequences for the individuals and communities left behind in Bulgaria and Romania. Given civil society’s role for development in post-socialist Europe and the socio-economic and institutional challenges that Bulgaria and Romania face compared with the rest of the EU, understanding the channels fostering civil society and well-being are important for national and EU policymakers. |
| Keywords: | : international migration, left behind, civic engagement, social remittances, post-socialism |
| JEL: | I30 I31 F22 P30 Z10 |
| Date: | 2016–01–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cel:dpaper:36&r=tra |
| By: | Xuan Huang; Bruno Lanz |
| Abstract: | Using a dual-market sorting model of workers' location decisions, this paper studies the capitalization of air pollution in wages and property prices across Chinese cities. We exploit quasi-experimental variations in particulate matter (PM10) concentration induced by a policy subsidizing coal-based winter heating in northern China, specifying a regression discontinuity design based on cities' location relative to the policy boundary. We estimate that the elasticity of wages and house prices with respect to PM10 concentration is 0.41 and -0.71 respectively. Our results are robust to the use of an alternative source of exogenous variation in PM10 concentration (sandstorms), supporting the view that the local effect we measure provides policy-relevant information on the value of air quality improvements in China. |
| Keywords: | Hedonic model; Air pollution; Labor market; Housing prices; Local public goods. |
| JEL: | H41 J31 R31 Q53 |
| Date: | 2015–11–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gii:ciesrp:cies_rp_38&r=tra |
| By: | Jacek Szlachta (Institute for Development, Sopot, Poland; Warsaw School of Economics, Warsaw, Poland); Jacek Zaucha (Institute for Development, Sopot, Poland, University of Gdansk, Faculty of Economics, Gdańsk, Poland) |
| Abstract: | This article summarizes the results of the research conducted by the Institute for Development focused on the introduction of the spatial concept, mainly territorial cohesion, to development policy, in the context of growth, concepts. The results are valid as for December 2015. Poland in the respect of territorialization of its development policy has outpaced other European countries. However, many aspects of programming and implementation of policies enhancing growth in the territorial context need strengthening. The most important challenges and solutions are presented in this paper. This is an update of the previous paper entitled “Recommendations for applying territorial cohesion concept for conducting development policy. Territorial aspects of public policies” presenting the research completed till the beginning of 2015. |
| Keywords: | territorial cohesion, policy territorialisation, development policy |
| JEL: | R11 R12 R58 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iro:wpaper:1515&r=tra |
| By: | Tomasz Komornicki (Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland); Jacek Zaucha (Institute for Development, Sopot, Poland, University of Gdansk, Faculty of Economics, Gdańsk, Poland) |
| Abstract: | The paper is an extended version of the Working Paper no. 003/2014 (014) (Zaucha Komornicki 2014) and the Working Paper no. 002/2015/(021) (Zaucha Komornicki 2015). It aims at foreign readers. The paper presents to what extent and how the Polish regions (voivodship) have managed to introduce territorial cohesion paradigm into their development policy. All three dimensions of territorial cohesion have been examined (territorial cohesion: as a process of policy adaptation to the specificity of territorial units i.e. policy effectiveness, as the contribution of territorial assets/territorial capital to economic growth i.e. territorial effectiveness, as an enabling platform for the specific spatial objectives of development policies) with the focus on the first one. The paper is based on the results of a survey and in depth inquiries conducted with the services responsible for the broader development of the regions (mostly departments of the Marshal Offices). The study found that the representatives of regional authorities, have a relatively good understanding of the issues of territorial cohesion, but their understanding of the concept is generally narrower than the theoretical studies. Many of them considered territorial cohesion not as a separate goal but as a vehicle of achieving to social and economic cohesion. While at the conceptual level (defining territorial cohesion) most regions have emphasized the role of endogenous growth factors, this has been slightly abandoned at the policy programming stage. In programming of intraregional policies the more traditional approach dominates. Regions usually delimitate different types of areas. This takes place generally on the basis of negative criteria (e.g. problem areas). But the study also, shows the evolution of the approach (forced mainly by EU regulations), which gives rise to a better implementation of the territorial cohesion concept in regional policies. |
| Keywords: | place-based policy, territorial capital, territorial cohesion |
| JEL: | R11 R12 R58 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iro:wpaper:1513&r=tra |
| By: | Mikhail A. Gershman (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Galina A. Kitova (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | In recent years, evaluation and impact assessments (IA) of research and innovation (R&I) policies have become of interest both to researchers and policy makers. The latter use the results of such assessments when developing new regulations and monitoring the implementation and effectiveness of policies already in place. The practice and methodology of policy evaluation and IA are characterised by the diversity of approaches used and the existence of a number of unresolved methodological problems. At the same time, efforts are being made to define conceptual frameworks for policy evaluation and IA, categorise relevant studies and cases, and draft recommendations. This paper looks at public policies and programmes aimed at stimulating R&I in Russian universities. For this purpose, 299 universities were surveyed in 2013-2014 to reveal their demand for the relevant policies in 2006-2012 and the effects they had. Based on survey results we assess the impact of the policies on universities and suggest recommendations regarding the improvement of state regulations and further conduction of similar assessments. |
| Keywords: | university; research and innovation; policy; evaluation; impact assessment; Russia. |
| JEL: | O38 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:57sti2016&r=tra |
| By: | GALLUZZO, NICOLA |
| Abstract: | Bulgaria and Romania are characterized by a higher percentage incidence of rural population than other European nations and a significant diffusion of less favoured areas with limited agricultural surfaces as well. The objective of this paper was to investigate, via a quantitative approach, effects and relationships among funds allocated by the second pillar of the Common Agricultural Policy on cropping specialization. Furthermore, subsidies and other financial supports assigned by specific agricultural and rural policies have had a positive role in areas at risk of marginalization and characterized by out migration issues. In the quantitative analysis we used the data published by the European Union in the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) since 2007 to 2012. In Bulgaria, as a consequence of a greater diffusion of large size farms, the financial subsides allocated by the EU, throughout Single Area Payment Scheme and towards crops have been significant in Romania and Bulgaria. Romania has pointed out a positive impact of financial aids paid to less favoured areas in order to reduce the rural marginalization and countryside depopulation. |
| Keywords: | Farm Accountancy Data Network, less favored rural areas, Single Area Payment Schemes, Kohonen’s map, Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaa150:212659&r=tra |
| By: | Sinitsa Arseniy (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University) |
| Abstract: | The issues of the development of the Arctic area of Russia that are linked with its importance for the economy of Russia provide the necessity to study its population. The Arctic area population is mostly an urban one, that’s why the special consideration to it should be taken. We examined the size, the age-sex structure and the natural movement of the urban population of the Russia’s Arctic area. As a result, the regions that belong to the Arctic area have the natural population increase, but its losses from the migratory movement are higher, so the population of the Russia’s Arctic area has been decreasing. At the conclusion different ways of the demographic development of the Russia’s Arctic area and some measures of the demographic policy encourage the population increase are discussed |
| Keywords: | Russia’s Arctic area, Arctic cities of Russia, natural population movement, socioeconomic development, demographic policy. |
| JEL: | J10 J11 |
| Date: | 2016–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upa:wpaper:0024&r=tra |
| By: | Wei Jin (School of Public Policy and Management, Zheijang University); ZhongXiang Zhang (College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University) |
| Abstract: | Whether China continues its business-as-usual investment-driven, environment-polluting growth pattern or adopts an investment and innovation-driven, environmentally sustainable development holds important implications for both national and global environmental governance. Building on a Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans growth model that features endogenous technological change induced by R&D and knowledge stock accumulation, this paper presents an exposition, both analytically and numerically, of the mechanism underlining China’s economic transition from an investment-driven, pollution-intensive to an investment and innovation-driven, environmentally sustainable growth path. We show that if R&D technological innovation is incorporated into China’s growth mechanism, then at some tipping point in time when marginal welfare gain of R&D for knowledge accumulation becomes equalized with that of investment for physical asset deployment, China’s economy will launch capital investment and R&D simultaneously and make a transition to a sustainable growth path along which consumption, capital investment, and R&D have a balanced share of 5: 4: 1, consumption, capital stock, and knowledge stock all grow at a rate of 4.9%, and environmental quality improves at a rate of 2.5%. In contrast, if R&D technological innovation is not harnessed as a new growth engine, then China’s economy will follow its business-as-usual investment-driven growth path along which standalone accumulation of dirty physical capital stock will lead to a more than 200-fold increase in environmental pollution. |
| Keywords: | endogenous technological change; sustainable development; economic growth model; China’s economic transition |
| JEL: | Q55 Q58 Q43 Q48 O13 O31 O33 O44 F18 |
| Date: | 2016–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:ccepwp:1601&r=tra |
| By: | Chunbo Ma (School of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Western Australia); David I. Stern (Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University) |
| Abstract: | Meta-analyses of interfuel and capital-energy elasticities of substitution show that elasticity estimates are dependent on the type of data – time series, panel, or cross-section – and the estimators used. Econometric theory suggests that the between estimator might generate the best estimates of long-run elasticities but no existing estimates of elasticities of substitution have used it. Alternatively, Chirinko et al. argued in favor of estimating long-run elasticities of substitution using a long-run difference estimator. We provide estimates of China’s interfuel and interfactor elasticities of substitution using the between and long-run difference estimators. To address potential omitted variables bias, we add province level inefficiency and national technological change terms to our regression model. The results show that demand for coal and electricity in China is very inelastic, while demand for diesel and gasoline is elastic. With the exception of gasoline and diesel, there are limited substitution possibilities among the fuels. Substitution possibilities are greater between energy and labor than between energy and capital. The results are quite different to some previous studies for China but coincide well with the patterns found in meta-analyses for long-run estimates of elasticities of substitution. |
| Keywords: | energy; substitution; elasticity; demand; China |
| JEL: | D24 Q40 |
| Date: | 2016–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:ccepwp:1602&r=tra |
| By: | Yongzheng Liu (International Center for Public Policy. Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University); Jorge Martinez-Vazquez (International Center for Public Policy. Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University Author-Workplace-Homepage: http://aysps.gsu.edu/isp/index.html); Baoyun Qiao (Central University of Finance and Economics in Beijing, China) |
| Abstract: | China has been carrying out significant fiscal reforms on intergovernmental fiscal relations for over three decades. However, these reforms have largely concentrated on the revenue side of the budget, and generally have not been coordinated with an explicit strategy for the reform of functional expenditure assignments. Currently, there is large consensus that the weaknesses with the current assignment of expenditure responsibilities have become one of the most serious ob-structions---if not the most serious---to the further improvement of China fiscal system. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive review of the actual practice with expenditure assignment among different levels of government in China over the past decades. We highlight the most im-portant issues surrounding the current system qualitatively and quantitatively, and provide a road map and practical recommendations for its future reform. |
| Date: | 2016–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ays:ispwps:paper1602&r=tra |
| By: | Vera Ivanova (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Existing empirical work on the growth of Russian regions mostly covers a short time period and considers only regional-level data, while citylevel spatial data of the postreform era remain largely ignored. Using citylevel geocoded data covering 997 cities and towns from 1996 until 2013, I nd sigma- and betaconvergence across Russian cities in wages. City wages during the period under consideration display signicant and positive spatial autocorrelation. Spatial Durbin models of the Barro regression are estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo methodology. Estimates of the spatial models for dierent weight matrices indicate that the city wage growth is signicantly aected by wage growth rates in neighboring cities, after conditioning on initial wages. |
| Keywords: | Russian cities, wages, convergence, spatial autocorrelation, spatial econometrics, Markov chain Monte Carlo. |
| JEL: | R12 O18 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:120/ec/2015&r=tra |
| By: | Tomasz Brodzicki (University of Gdansk, Faculty of Economics, Gdańsk, Poland; Institute for Development, Sopot, Poland); Dorota Ciołek (Institute for Development, Sopot, Poland; University of Gdansk, Faculty of Economics, Department of Macroeconomics, Gdańsk, Poland) |
| Abstract: | The interaction between space (location) and the processes of accumulation (growth) is one of the most interesting and at the same time the most difficult areas of modern economic theory. The theoretical and empirical results to date are however largely unsatisfactory. In our analysis we proposed the way how to implement the space into the neoclassical Solow-Swan growth model. Territorial capital, as a specific carrier of the concept of territorial cohesion, is significantly different from the classical factors of production such as physical capital or labor input. It cannot be considered as a factor directly responsible for changes in the volume of production. However, territorial capital can have an impact on the productivity of basic factors of production such as capital and labor. Thus, when defining the function of production, we assume that territorial capital does not affect production directly, but it affects total factor productivity (TFP) indirectly, contributing to an increase in the production. In this paper we present our research findings on the contribution of various elements of territorial capital to regional growth in Poland. The study adopts a highly spatially disaggregated NUTS-4 level, i.e. counties, for which interactions and relationships of a spatial and territorial nature are particularly relevant. |
| Keywords: | regional development, TFP determinants, territorial capital, spatial econometrics |
| JEL: | O40 O47 R11 R12 C31 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iro:wpaper:1511&r=tra |
| By: | Wang, Ruixin (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how gift exchange may help to overcome limited commitment problem in risk sharing. When efficient contract enforcement is lacking, people rely on friends (or relatives) to share risk since emotional or moral cost of defaulting between friends can help to prevent moral hazard. The problem is how to distinguish between friends and non-friends? Gift expense serves as a signal of friendship since giving a gift is less costly for a friend than a non-friend due to altruism. The model re-evaluates the role of gift exchange in developing economies, and helps to rationalize the large amount of gift exchange in China (10% of living expenditure). As a signal, gift exchange improves the efficiency in risk sharing and facilitates favor exchange, but I also demonstrate that the welfare gains due to this improvement may be offset by increased inequality. By using a unique data set containing detailed records about gift exchange in rural China, the empirical study suggests gift expenses, as a signal, significantly increase the probability of risk sharing. I also show further empirical evidence to the theory by testing more model predictions. |
| Keywords: | gift exchange; risk sharing; emotinal collateral; signaling |
| JEL: | O16 O17 L14 D03 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiucen:95c6dbed-3f49-4d5a-987e-250886f71f88&r=tra |
| By: | Jacek Szlachta (Institute for Development, Sopot, Poland; Warsaw School of Economics, Warsaw, Poland); Jacek Zaucha (Institute for Development, Sopot, Poland, University of Gdansk, Faculty of Economics, Gdańsk, Poland) |
| Abstract: | The paper presents the results of the desk-based review of policy attempts to territorialise the Polish development Policy. Firstly an international context is analysed, then Polish development Policy is examined and the different ways of making it more territorially sensitive are presented. As the result of those analysis the following factors of successful territorialisation of development policy in Poland have been identified: The polycentric structure of the settlement network and of Polish economy. Openness to the external environment Polish membership in the European Union. The wise application of European cohesion policy. The doctrine of development policy based on decentralization and planning. The depth of the reform of the territorial system and its empowerment. Finally some arguments are presented why territorialisation of Polish development policy has increased its effectiveness and contributed to the success of Polish development. |
| Keywords: | territorial cohesion, policy territorialisation, development policy |
| JEL: | R11 R12 R58 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iro:wpaper:1509&r=tra |
| By: | L Alan Winters |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the integration of China into the world trading system, focusing on the size and nature of the shocks that this implied for the world economy and the reactions to those shocks proposed by policy makers and academics. While the WTO has acted as a forum in which many of the adjustment pressures created by China’s rapid growth were dealt with fairly constructively, the recent shift by the United States and the EU to mega-regional trade deals, notably the Tran-Pacific Partnership, and that exclude China, marks a dangerous shift away from engaging the world’s second largest economy as an equal in a cooperative fashion. |
| Keywords: | China, WTO, TPP, imbalances, trade agreements |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2015/82&r=tra |
| By: | Ilya Khankov (National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow); Henry Penikas (National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow) |
| Abstract: | Research is devoted to examination of the classifier, based on copula discriminant analysis (CODA). Performance of the classification of this algorithm was assessed. On samples, modelled with some typical features of corporate default data, sensitivity of the classifier was tested, to sample size, to default rate and to different patterns of variables’ interdependence. Alternative copula families’ selection method is proposed based on certain performance metric optimization. Difference in classification performance of different algorithms are investigated. On real data of Russian corporate defaults, CODA classifier was built. It was supported by single factor analysis, based on discriminant analysis too. Final model demonstrates better classification performance than Linear Discriminant Analysis and Random Forest algorithm, and is comparable to Quadratic Discriminant Analysis. Another experiment was set on data of Russian banks. Single factor analysis was assessed via standard procedure. CODA performance appeared to be lower than of Random Forest here, it was similar to QDA |
| Date: | 2015–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pav:demwpp:demwp0113&r=tra |
| By: | Xing Li; Tian Qiu; Guang Chen; Li-Xin Zhong; Xiong-Fei Jiang |
| Abstract: | Geography effect is investigated for the Chinese stock market, based on the daily data of individual stocks. Companies located around the stock markets are found to greatly contribute to the markets in the geographical sector. A geographical correlation is introduced to quantify the geography effect on the stock correlation, which is observed to approach steady as the company location moves to the northeast China. Stock distance effect is further studied, where companies are found to more likely set their headquarters close to each other. In the normal market environment, the stock correlation decays with the stock distance, but is independent of the stock distance in and after the financial crisis. |
| Date: | 2016–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1601.01753&r=tra |
| By: | Yongheng Deng (National University of Singapore); Eric Girardin (National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS)); Roselyne Joyeux (Macquarie University) |
| Abstract: | In a similar way to the stock market, the housing market in China has often been portrayed as highly speculative, giving rise to ¡°bubble¡± concerns. Over the last decade, residential prices increased every year on average by double digits in Beijing or Shanghai (Deng, Gyourko and Wu, 2012). However many observers and researchers argue that the fundamentals of the housing sector, both sector-specific and macroeconomic, may have been the driving force behind housing price volatility. While existing empirical work exclusively relies on downward-biased official housing prices, this paper uses original high-frequency unit level residential price series for Beijing and Shanghai to test alternative hypotheses about the drivers of house price growth. We propose a sequential research strategy including the construction of hedonic prices, explosive unit root tests (Phillips, Shi and Yu, 2014), the filtering of microstructure noise (Bollerslev et al. 2015) and a Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) methodology (Ghysels et al, 2007; Engle et al., 2013) which enables us to document that fundamentals can indeed account for movements in housing price volatility, as well as transaction volume in first©\tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai. |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hkm:wpaper:222015&r=tra |