nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2015‒12‒20
seventeen papers chosen by
J. David Brown
United States Census Bureau

  1. Left Behind but Doing Good? Civic Engagement in Two Post-Socialist Countries By Nikolova, Milena; Roman, Monica; Zimmermann, Klaus F
  2. Hungary's U-Turn By Kornai, János
  3. Analiza powiazan pomiedzy rynkami kapitalowymi wybranych krajow grupy wyszehradzkiej By Adam P. Balcerzak; Marcin Faldzinski; Michal Bernard Pietrzak; Tomas Meluzin; Marek Zineker
  4. Major Public Enterprises in Croatia By Anto BAJO; Marko PRIMORAC
  5. Social transfers and women’s labour supply in Kyrgyzstan By Armando Barrientos; Alma Kudebayeva
  6. Income mobility in times of economic growth: The case of Viet Nam By Ian Brand-Weiner; Francesca Francavilla
  7. The Erroneous Use of China's Population and per capita Data:A Structured Review and Critical Test By John Gibson; Chao Li
  8. Exchange Rate Changes and Stock Returns in China: A Markov Switching SVAR Approach By Juan Carlos Cuestas; Bo Tang
  9. Оценка функционирования механизма региональных финансов Омской области By Bogomyagkova, Olga
  10. Производительность труда в отраслях обрабатывающей промышленности России: динамика и межстрановые сопоставления By Zaytsev, Alexander
  11. International Technology Transfer and Domestic Innovation: Evidence from the High-Speed Rail Sector in China By Yatang Lin; Yu Qin; Zhuan Zie
  12. The Integration of Energy, Environment and Health Policies in China: A Review By Huijie Yan
  13. The dynamic relationship between bank asset diversification and efficiency: Evidence from the Chinese banking sector By Kai Du; Andrew C. Worthington; Valentin Zelenyuk
  14. Sources of energy productivity change in China during 1997-2012: A decomposition analysis based on the Luenberger productivity indicator By Ke Wang; Yi-Ming Wei
  15. Credit Unions in Romania – a strong social enterprise model to combat financial exclusion and over indebtedness By Cristina BARNA; Ancuta VAMEsU
  16. Hub-periphery development pattern and inclusive growth : case study of Guangdong province By Luo,Xubei; Zhu,Nong
  17. Unbalanced privatization in emerging economies and capital flows By Damien Cubizol

  1. By: Nikolova, Milena; Roman, Monica; Zimmermann, Klaus F
    Abstract: The fall of socialism in Central and Eastern Europe restored ordinary citizens’ rights and freedoms and ended their political and social isolation. While the freedom of movement was quickly embraced, civil society revival lagged due to the eroded civic norms, declining social capital, and worsening economic conditions. In this paper, we examine the link between the out-migration of relatives and friends and the pro-social behavior of the left behinds in two post-socialist countries—Bulgaria and Romania—the EU’s poorest, unhappiest, and among the most corrupt members. We show that having close contacts abroad is consistently positively associated with civic engagement and that the cultural transmission of norms from abroad could be driving the results. Specifically, the strength of the civic engagement culture of the family or friend’s destination matters for the pro-social behavior of respondents in the home countries. Our results imply that the emigration of family and friends may have positive but previously undocumented consequences for the individuals and communities left behind in Bulgaria and Romania. Given civil society’s role for development in post-socialist Europe and the socio-economic and institutional challenges that Bulgaria and Romania face compared with the rest of the EU, understanding the channels fostering civil society and well-being are important for national and EU policymakers.
    Keywords: civic engagement; international migration; left behind; post-socialism; social remittances
    JEL: I30 I31 P30 Z10
    Date: 2015–12
  2. By: Kornai, János
    Abstract: For two decades Hungary, like the other Eastern European countries, followed a general policy of establishing and strengthening the institutions of democracy, rule of law, and a market economy based on private property. However, since the elections of 2010, when Viktor Orbán's Fidesz party came to power, Hungary has made a dramatic U-turn. This article investigates the different spheres of society: political institutions, the rule of law, and the influence of state and market on one another, as well as the world of ideology (education, science and art), and describes the U-turn’s implications for these fields and the effect it has on the life of people. It argues against the frequent misunderstandings in the interpretation and evaluation of the Hungarian situation, pointing out some typical intellectual fallacies. It draws attention to the dangers of strengthening nationalism, and to the ambivalence evident in Hungarian foreign policy, and looks into the relationship between Hungary and the Western world, particularly the European Union. Finally, it outlines the possible scenarios resulting from future developments in the Hungarian situation.
    JEL: P14
    Date: 2015
  3. By: Adam P. Balcerzak (Nicolaus Copernicus University, Poland); Marcin Faldzinski (Nicolaus Copernicus University, Poland); Michal Bernard Pietrzak (Nicolaus Copernicus University, Poland); Tomas Meluzin (Brno University of Technology); Marek Zineker (Brno University of Technology)
    Abstract: Increasing globalization contributes to the growth of the interdependencies between capital markets. This phenomenon is becoming a significant exogenous factors influencing the effectiveness of national economic policies and it impacts on the risk management processes at the microeconomic level. Therefore, the identification of the linkages between capital markets and the analysis of changes in the strength of these relationships over time, can be the source of an important guidelines for national macroeconomic policy makers and can become an essential part of managing the risks associated with the influence of capital markets. Thus, the main objective of the proposed article is to analyze the interdependence between capital markets of selected countries of the Visegrad Group: Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary. The analysis of the relationship between these markets was supplemented with verification of their linkages with German capital market, which is quite close geographically, and additionally is usually considered as one of the leading markets in the European Union. In the econometric research DCC-GARCH model with the t-student conditional distribution was applied. The econometric analysis was done for the period 1997-2015, which gives the possibility to verify the trends in the evolution of interdependencies between the selected markets, measured here by conditional correlations.
    Keywords: interdependences among capital markets, conditional variance and correlations, capital market, DCC-GARCH model, Visegrad Group
    JEL: D53 C32
    Date: 2015–12
  4. By: Anto BAJO (Institute of public finance, Zagreb, Croatia); Marko PRIMORAC (University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business, Zagreb, Croatia.)
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to present basic characteristics of state-owned enterprises in Croatia, assess their financial operations and identify major trends in their operations and long-term development prospects. The analysis is carried out for the period from 2009 to 2013. The paper gradually examines financial operations, management system and the systems of accountability and transparency. The particular emphasis is on the comparative overview of major state-owned enterprises’ missions and the extent to which they serve public purposes. Moreover, the paper evaluates capital investment plans and provides proposals for the reform of state-owned enterprises in Croatia. In all state-owned enterprises, a serious organizational restructuring - adjustment of the organizational structure and number of employees is still expected
    Keywords: state owned enterprise, financial operation, management, accountability, capital investment.
    Date: 2015–08
  5. By: Armando Barrientos; Alma Kudebayeva
    Abstract: Abstract The paper examines social transfers and their influence on the labour supply of women in Kyrgyzstan. Social transfers in cash and in kind in place in Kyrgyzstan absorbed 5.7% of GDP in 2012. They include subsidies to social insurance pensioners, transfers to population groups considered vulnerable or deserving, and transfers to families with children in extreme poverty. Social transfers are generally pro-old and maternalist in orientation, and therefore strongly gendered. Using data from the Life in Kyrgyzstan survey, the paper throws light on whether social transfers are associated with labour supply decisions of women at the extensive and intensive margins, and with birth spacing. The results indicate that social assistance transfers are associated with lower probabilities of participation and hours for women and marginally increase the relative risk giving birth.
    Date: 2015
  6. By: Ian Brand-Weiner; Francesca Francavilla
    Abstract: This paper analyses income mobility in Viet Nam from 2004 to 2008. The concept of income mobility is important for developed and developing economies, especially for those, such as Viet Nam, witnessing a stable persistent economic growth and profound structural transformations. Income mobility adds to the already established literature on poverty and inequality by quantifying how much households benefit from the economic performance of a country. The analysis shows that Viet Nam’s growth facilitated households’ income mobility. The analysis of the drivers of households’ mobility invites policy makers to tailor interventions, e.g. assisting less mobile households with many dependents, or endowing households engaging in agriculture –an important source of income and driver of mobility – with appropriated skills and tools. Furthermore, it is shown that public transfers have only little impact on income mobility, indicating that their effectiveness has to be improved if the state wants to assist households in mitigating shocks and reducing inequality.<BR>Cette étude analyse la mobilité des revenus au Viet Nam entre 2004 et 2008. Le concept de mobilité des revenus est important pour les économies développées et en développement, en particuliers pour celles, tel le Viet Nam, ayant fait l’expérience d’une croissance économique persistante ainsi que de profondes transformations structurelles. La mobilité des revenus contribue aux connaissances en termes de pauvreté et d’inégalités en permettant la quantification du bénéfice tiré par les ménages de la performance économique de leur pays. L’analyse montre une augmentation de la mobilité des revenus due à la croissance au Viet Nam. L’analyse des facteurs déterminants conclue sur un besoin d’ajustement des politiques afin d’assister les ménages moins mobiles avec de nombreux dépendants, ainsi que le besoin d’assister les ménages dépendants de l’agriculture – un facteur important de revenu et de mobilité – avec les outils et connaissances nécessaires. En outre, les transferts publics n’ont que peu d’impact sur la mobilité des revenus, et requièrent une amélioration de leur efficacité pour assister les ménages dans l’atténuation de chocs et afin de réduire les inégalités.
    Keywords: income distribution, income growth
    JEL: E24 I31 J60 J62
    Date: 2015–12–16
  7. By: John Gibson (University of Waikato); Chao Li (University of Waikato)
    Abstract: Hundreds of studies in economics misinterpret China’s sub-national population and per capita data. The most widely used population counts are of hukou registrations from each province, prefecture, county, or city rather than of the people living in each place and generating local GDP. Over 220 million people have left their place of registration, while almost none had when reforms began, creating time-varying errors in estimates of per capita income of sub-national units. We survey empirical articles in blue ribbon journals, in development journals, and in regional and urban economics journals that use China’s sub-national data. Over 80 percent of articles use these data erroneously; most commonly the wrong population or employment counts are used to measure the size of sub-national units, and per capita data are calculated with the wrong denominator for the interpretation placed on variables. We provide examples of errors from each group of journals, and a critical test of one highly-cited study. Specifically, we show that if hukou registrations are erroneously used to measure the local population, following existing practice, conclusions about driving forces for urban area expansion are reversed. We give recommendations for more careful use of China’s sub-national population and per capita data.
    Keywords: Hukou; China; measurement error; population; sub-national growth; urban area
    JEL: O47 Q56 R11
    Date: 2015–12–10
  8. By: Juan Carlos Cuestas (Department of Economics, University of Sheffield); Bo Tang (Department of Economics, University of Sheffield)
    Abstract: This study empirically investigates the spillover effects between exchange rate changes and stock returns in China. Evidenced by multivariate Granger causality tests, stock returns Granger-cause exchange rates changes, but exchange rate changes exhibit little effect on stock returns. As the conventional structural VAR (SVAR) approach fails to examine the contemporaneous effects, we apply the Markov switching SVAR model to allow the coefficients and variances of endogenous variables to be state-dependent. The regimeswitching estimates indicate that the fluctuation in Shanghai B-share returns has positive effects on the remaining stock markets, but a negative impact on foreign exchange markets. This also reveals that the spillovers have longer durations during two financial crisis periods. Finally, this paper suggests investors to pay attention to systematic risks from RMB policy changes, which might alter the current unidirectional causality in the Chinese financial market.
    Keywords: exchange rate changes, stock returns, Markov switching SVAR, Chinese financial market
    JEL: C32 C58 F31
    Date: 2015–12
  9. By: Bogomyagkova, Olga
    Abstract: The article deals with a type of financial instrument - the mechanism of functioning of regional finance. The analysis of the financial condition of the Omsk region. The forecast financial dynamics of the region for the next year.
    Keywords: the mechanism of regional finances, the financial condition of the subject of the Russian Federation, regional finance, budgetary factors.
    JEL: E63
    Date: 2015–12–01
  10. By: Zaytsev, Alexander
    Abstract: The article analyses (per hour) labor productivity dynamics of Russian manufacturing sector in 1995-2008 and presents 2007 year estimates of labor productivity levels for Russia and 9 countries in 13 manufacturing industries. The group of countries includes Russia, USA, Germany, France, CEE countries and China. In contrast to previous works, level comparisons are based on industrial PPPs (which gives more precise estimates), analysis captures wider country grouping and more detailed industry level.Russian manufacturing sector labor productivity is only 18% of US level (in 2007 year). Better stance is in metallurgy (51% of US level) and pulp and paper industry (36% of US level). The worst stance (4-11% of US level) is in wood products, chemical industry and machinery. Considerable productivity gaps are the evidence of technological weakness of Russian economy, but also it implies the possibility of catching up by means of technology borrowing. Labor productivity level analysis shows that Czech, Hungary, Latvia and the most developed industries of China manufacturing can be considered as perspective sources of technology borrowing for Russia.
    Keywords: manufacturing; labor productivity; international comparisons; PPP; technology borrowing
    JEL: J24 L60 O57
    Date: 2015–06–26
  11. By: Yatang Lin; Yu Qin; Zhuan Zie
    Abstract: How does the transfer of advanced technology spur innovation in developing countries? This paper exploits the large-scale introduction of high-speed railway (HSR) technology into China in 2004 as a natural experiment to address this question. The experiment is unique in the sense that this wave of technology transfer is large, abrupt and arguably exogenous in timing, covering a variety of technology classes and a large number of geographically-dispersed railway-related firms. With detailed information on the types of technology transferred and the identities of the receiving firms, as well as their product market specializations, we are able to depict a clear picture of how foreign technology is digested and spurs follow-up innovation in and out of directly receiving firms. Our findings suggest that technology transfer leads to significant growth in HSR-related patents in cities with direct receivers of imported technology after 2004 in a triple-difference estimation. We also observe sizable spillovers to firms that are not directly related to the railway industry. Technology similarity plays an important role in technology diffusion, but we do not observe any significant impacts of geographic proximity. Previous university research strength in relevant fields is also conducive to stronger technology spillovers.
    Keywords: innovation, foreign technology transfer, knowledge spillover, China
    JEL: O25 O33 O38
    Date: 2015–12
  12. By: Huijie Yan (Aix-Marseille University (Aix-Marseille School of Economics), CNRS & EHESS)
    Abstract: The goal of sustainable development is far from being achieved in China. In this context, this paper aims to provide an overview of China’s energy, environment and health policies over the past 30 years and discuss whether the previous policies have fully integrated the energy, environment and health issues in its sustainable development agenda. From the overview, we observe that the energy policies accelerating energy industrial upgrading, stimulating development of new energy sources, deregulating energy pricing mechanism, promoting energy saving and seizing the opportunity of green growth are conducive to an improvement of environmental conditions and public health in China. However, the environmental policies are not effectively implemented and subsequently they could not succeed in reducing environmental risks on public health and putting pressure on enterprises to efficiently use energy. The health policies have not taken real actions to focus with any specificity on energy-induced or pollution-induced health problems.
    Keywords: Energy, Environment, Health, China
    JEL: Q48 Q53 Q58 I18
    Date: 2015–11–10
  13. By: Kai Du (Entrepreneurship, Commercialization & Innovation Centre, University of Adelaide); Andrew C. Worthington (Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics, Griffith University); Valentin Zelenyuk (School of Economics, The University of Queensland)
    Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the impact of earning asset diversification on Chinese bank efficiency from 2006 to 2011. To do so, we adapt the Simar and Wilson (2007) Journal of Econometrics approach to allow for technology change over time. Regression results reveal that increasing the asset share of other earning assets (including securities and derivatives) is positively associated with bank efficiency. Decreasing the share of nonearning assets in total assets or increasing total equity has a similar impact. Our results also suggest that financial reforms currently being undertaken in China, including removing the regulatory requirement concerning the ratio of loans to deposits (a new draft amendment to the existing commercial banking law) and interest rate liberalization (a proposed draft amendment), are likely to induce a significant positive effect on bank efficiency.
    Keywords: Asset diversification; Data envelopment analysis; Truncated regression; Bootstrapping; Chinese banks
    JEL: D21 C13 G21 C44
    Date: 2015–12
  14. By: Ke Wang; Yi-Ming Wei (Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEP), Beijing Institute of Technology)
    Abstract: Given that different energy inputs play different roles in production and that energy policy decision making requires an evaluation of productivity change in individual energy input to provide insight into the scope for improvement of the utilization of specific energy input, this study develops, based on the Luenberger productivity indicator and data envelopment analysis models, an aggregated specific energy productivity indicator combining the individual energy input productivity indicators that account for the contributions of each specific energy input towards energy productivity change. In addition, these indicators can be further decomposed into four factors: pure efficiency change, scale efficiency change, pure technology change, and scale of technology change. These decompositions enable a determination of which specific energy input is the driving force of energy productivity change and which of the four factors is the primary contributor of energy productivity change. An empirical analysis of China¡¯s energy productivity change over the period 1997-2012 indicates that (i) China¡¯s energy productivity growth may be overestimated if energy consumption structure is omitted; (ii) in regard to the contribution of specific energy input towards energy productivity growth, oil and electricity show positive contributions, but coal and natural gas show negative contributions; (iii) energy-specific productivity changes are mainly caused by technical changes rather than efficiency changes; (iv) the Porter Hypothesis is partially supported in China that carbon emissions control regulations may lead to energy productivity growth.
    Keywords: Carbon emissions, Data envelopment analysis, Driving force, Input specific productivity indicator
    JEL: Q54 Q40
    Date: 2015–10–02
  15. By: Cristina BARNA (Institute of Social Economy - Civil Society Development Foundation, Romania); Ancuta VAMEsU (Institute of Social Economy Coordinator - Civil Society Development Foundation, Romania)
    Abstract: Credit unions are social economy entities that have an important contribution to preventing financial and social exclusion in Romania. Historically, we can speak about credit unions in Romania from XVIII century in Transylvania, until present. These social economy entities have been a considerable support during all these times for persons with low income in Romania, being credible institutions in the communist period, and also after 1990 Revolution, facing successfully all turbulent economic transformations and global challenges, adapting and developing themselves continuously until present, when they begin to embrace microfinance and adopt the European Code of good-practice in micro-finance. They have the potential to become a successful social economy model, very instrumental in providing affordable loans and safe saving and also contributing to local development through support for entrepreneurship and job creation. Our paper has as objective to describe and analyze the specificity of Romanian credit union model, that could be seen in the same time as a social innovation, with a big multiplier effect in economy and society, generating inclusive growth and development; an overview of the dynamics of the sector, considering the most recent available statistical data. The paper will include the preliminary research results of the project “ICAR - inclusion by micro-credit and mutual help - sustainable strategy of social economy for employment and creation of social enterprises”, financed by European Social Fund - Human Resources Operational Programme, ID 148102, regarding the general context of access to financial services in Romania, financial exclusion and over-indebtedness.
    Keywords: credit union, financial exclusion, social exclusion, social economy, mutual financial help, micro-credit
    Date: 2015–11
  16. By: Luo,Xubei; Zhu,Nong
    Abstract: The hub-periphery development pattern of the Guangdong economy, to some extent, is a miniature of that of the Chinese economy. The Pearl River Delta, drawing from its first-nature comparative advantages in factor endowments and proximity to Hong Kong SAR, China, and Macau SAR, China, and the second-nature advantages as first-movers in the reforms in attracting and retaining domestic and foreign resources, has developed into a regional economic center. This paper examines the pattern of inter- and intra-provincial migration and that of the concentration of production, to explore the challenges and opportunities for the success of ?double transfer.? The paper suggests a four-prong approach, to improve the business environment, support the realization of latent comparative advantages, increase the skill level of the labor force to support the upgrade of the production structure, and protect the vulnerable, to support the inclusive growth of the economy in Guangdong in a sustainable manner.
    Keywords: Economic Theory&Research,Population Policies,Regional Economic Development,Labor Policies,Environmental Economics&Policies
    Date: 2015–12–09
  17. By: Damien Cubizol (Université de Lyon, F-69007, France; CNRS, GATE Lyon St Etienne, 93, Chemin des Mouilles, F-69130, Ecully, France; Université Lyon 2, Lyon, F-69007, France)
    Abstract: This empirical study reveals that a higher credit distribution by State-Owned Banks (SOBs) to State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), to the detriment of some highly productive private firms, has an effect on foreign investments in emerging countries experiencing an economic transition. A first approach relying on GMM, Bayesian techniques, and utilizing a sample of 40 emerging countries over the period 1987-2007, demonstrates that the capital misallocation created by SOBs during privatization hinders inward FDI and enhances the accumulation of foreign assets. Then, to specify the effect on FDI inflows, a sectoral approach is implemented for 1992-2012 and strengthens the results; the rise in the credit afforded to SOEs to the detriment of growing private firms is associated with a slowdown of inward FDI stocks by approximately 16% to 23% during privatization. This conclusion is valid in manufacturing but not in tertiary sectors, that is, in sectors with more private firms and external finance dependence. The literature on the Chinese case is partly extended to the main emerging privatizing countries. These results allow for improvement in policy actions to better allocate capital in transition economies and for international stability.
    Keywords: Financial intermediation, privatization, Foreign Direct Investment, Net Foreign Assets, emerging economies
    JEL: E22 E44 F21 G20 P30
    Date: 2015

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