nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2015‒09‒05
eight papers chosen by
J. David Brown
United States Census Bureau

  1. The Rise of Shadow Banking in China: The Political Economy of Modern Chinese State Capitalism By Kellee Tsai
  2. Gender gap in pay in the Russian Federation : twenty years later, still a concern By Atencio,Andrea; Posadas,Josefina
  3. Food Price Bubbles and Government Intervention: Is China Different? By Li, Jian; Li, Chongguang; Chavas, Jean-Paul
  4. The role of the Eurasian wheat belt to regional and global food security By Stephen Langrell; Sebastian Mary; Pavel Ciaian; Sergio Gomez y Paloma; Natalya SHAGAIDA; Renata Yanbykh; Peter Voight; Ashok K. Mishra; Amaranth Tripathi; Holly Wang; Thomas Fellmann; Sergio René Araujo Enciso; Jacques Delince; Guna Salputra; Thomas Fellmann; Fabien Santini; Robert M'barek; Marco Artavia
  5. The impact of vocational schooling on human capital development in developing countries : evidence from China By Loyalka,Prashant Kumar; Huang,Xiaoting; Zhang,Linxiu; Wei,Jianguo; Yi,Hongmei; Song,Yingquan; Shi,Yaojiang; Chu,James
  6. Russian Federation: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation By International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
  7. Republic of Poland: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation By International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
  8. Do foreign visitors reward post-communist countries? A panel evidence for tourism-growth nexus. By Salahodjaev, Raufhon; Safarova, Nilufar

  1. By: Kellee Tsai (Division of Social Science, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology; Institute for Emerging Market Studies, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)
    Abstract: Kellee Tsai, Head & Chair Professor of HKUST's Division of Social Science, explores China’s response to the 2008 global financial crisis, after which time Chinese enterprises both large and small have engaged in unprecedented levels of off-balance sheet activities, which are now estimated to account for an astounding 26-69% of China's total GDP. Prof. Tsai analyses the major sources and scope of China's off-balance sheet lending, offering policy suggestions on how to reduce some of the risks associated with such "shadow banking" activities, such as increasing market access in the services sector and setting up channels for debt issuance by local governments.
    Keywords: China, state capitalism, informal finance, shadow banking, financial development
    JEL: G28 G21 G18 G01
    Date: 2015–08
  2. By: Atencio,Andrea; Posadas,Josefina
    Abstract: This paper decomposes the gender gap in pay in the Russian Federation along the earnings distribution for the period 1996?2011. The analysis uses a reweighted, recentered influence function decomposition that allows estimating the contribution of each covariate on the wage structure and composition effects along the earnings distribution. The paper finds that women are in flat career paths compared with men; the importance of observable characteristics that proxy human capital in the gender pay gap decrease along the earnings distribution; and if women?s pay took into account their educational degrees as much as men?s, the gender pay gap would disappear or even reverse at the top of the earnings distribution. The results suggest that women at the bottom of the earnings distribution should be helped to increase their labor market skills, and women at the top of the distribution should be helped to break the glass ceiling and be remunerated for their skills to the same extent as men.
    Keywords: Labor Markets,Population Policies,Labor Policies,Rural Development Knowledge&Information Systems,Gender and Development
    Date: 2015–08–27
  3. By: Li, Jian (Huazhong Agricultural University and University of WI); Li, Chongguang (Huazhong Agricultural University); Chavas, Jean-Paul (University of WI)
    Abstract: The last decade has witnessed different price trajectories in the international and Chinese agricultural commodity markets. This paper compares and contrasts these dynamic patterns between markets from the perspective of price bubbles. A newly developed right-tailed unit root testing procedure is applied to detect price bubbles in the CBOT and Chinese agricultural futures market during the period 2005-2014. Results show that Chinese markets experienced less prominent speculative bubbles than the international markets for its high self-sufficiency commodities (wheat and corn), but not for low self-sufficiency commodities (soybean). The difference in price behavior is attributed to differences in market intelligence, and to Chinese agricultural policies related to trade as well as domestic government policies. Besides, it discusses challenges to the sustainability of the stable price trajectory in Chinese markets.
    JEL: D84 G12 G13 G14 Q14 Q18
    Date: 2015–06
  4. By: Stephen Langrell (European Commission – Directorate General for Health and Food Safety); Sebastian Mary (DePaul University – Department of Economics); Pavel Ciaian (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Sergio Gomez y Paloma (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Natalya SHAGAIDA (RANEPA, Moscow, Russia); Renata Yanbykh (VIAPI, Moscow, Russia); Peter Voight (European Commission - Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs); Ashok K. Mishra (Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA); Amaranth Tripathi (Institute for Economic Growth, Delhi, India); Holly Wang (Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana, USA); Thomas Fellmann (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Sergio René Araujo Enciso (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Jacques Delince (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Guna Salputra (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Thomas Fellmann (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Fabien Santini (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Robert M'barek (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Marco Artavia (European Commission – JRC - IPTS)
    Abstract: Food security remains to be a major societal concern. In the light of the current expectations of population growth, world food production has to be massively increased to sustain the associated food demand rise. While agricultural productivity was rising during recent decades in the US, Europe and also in some developing countries, the corresponding growth rates lately appeared to be slowing down. In fact, the only world region with a significant amount of arable land, which currently is not under cultivation and which at the same time is, moreover, experiencing rising productivity figures, is the so called 'Eurasian wheat belt', comprising of Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and the Central Asian countries, namely Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Kirgizstan. In this light, the Joint Research Centre and the Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development organized a thematic workshop, held during 20 – 22 May 2014 in Istanbul/Turkey, set up to bring experts on the matter together and to discuss to what extent these countries could play a role for regional and international food security. Following the workshop analysis and discussion, this report provides a comprehensive technical overview of the wheat production, and the main factors to achieve full production potential across the Eurasian wheat belt with regards to national, regional and global issues of cereal supply and food security in evolving global markets. It reviews key horizontal issues, such as land policy, credit and finance, privatization, farm structures, social consequences of transition, environmental challenges, against the backdrop of agrarian reforms implemented during the transition period. In addition the report explores production potential and corresponding institutional and policy restrictions in a series of Eurasian countries. Finally, the report closes with expert opined policy-relevant conclusions as a basis for policy suggestions and recommendations.
    Keywords: Food security; Eurasia; CIS; Wheat; Transition; Land reform; Agricultural policy; Agricultural markets; Russia; Ukraine; Kazakhstan.
    JEL: Q02 Q13 Q15 Q18
    Date: 2015–08
  5. By: Loyalka,Prashant Kumar; Huang,Xiaoting; Zhang,Linxiu; Wei,Jianguo; Yi,Hongmei; Song,Yingquan; Shi,Yaojiang; Chu,James
    Abstract: A number of developing countries are currently promoting vocational education and training (VET) as a way to build human capital and strengthen economic growth. The primary aim of this study is to understand whether VET at the high school level contributes to human capital development in one of those countries?China. To fulfill this aim, a longitudinal data on more than 10,000 students in vocational high school (in the most popular major, computing) and academic high school from two provinces of China are used. First, estimates from instrumental variables and matching analyses show that attending vocational high school (relative to academic high school) substantially reduces math skills and does not improve computing skills. Second, heterogeneous effect estimates also show that attending vocational high school increases dropout, especially among disadvantaged (low-income or low-ability) students. Third, vertically scaled (equated) baseline and follow-up test scores are used to measure gains in math and computing skills among the students. The results show that students who attend vocational high school experience absolute reductions in math skills. Taken together, the findings suggest that the rapid expansion of vocational schooling as a substitute for academic schooling can have detrimental consequences for building human capital in developing countries such as China.
    Keywords: Education For All,Secondary Education,Tertiary Education,Effective Schools and Teachers,Primary Education
    Date: 2015–08–18
  6. By: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
    Abstract: KEY ISSUES AND RECOMMENDATIONS Context. Growth was anemic in 2014, reflecting preexisting structural bottlenecks exacerbated by geopolitical uncertainty and sanctions. The ruble depreciated for the most part of 2014 and came under severe pressures at the end of the year due to the sharp decline in oil prices and the intensification of sanctions. As a result, inflation accelerated sharply. In response, the shift to a flexible exchange rate was accelerated and monetary policy was tightened significantly. Measures to stabilize the banking system were introduced, including a bank capital support plan. The authorities’ policy response stabilized the economy. However, structural reforms have remained stalled. Near-term macroeconomic policy mix. The fiscal policy stance for 2015 appropriately allows for limited stimulus. Monetary policy normalization should continue at a prudent pace, commensurate with the decline in underlying inflation and inflation expectations. The size of the bank capital support program appears to be sufficiently large, but the parameters of the program should be adjusted to strengthen incentives for banks to seek private capital and reduce cost to the public sector. Medium-term policy challenges. An ambitious and credible medium-term fiscal consolidation program is necessary to adjust to lower oil prices. Changes to the fiscal rule should be considered to support medium-term fiscal sustainability. Boosting potential growth will require implementation of structural reforms. This would include (i) strengthening governance and protection of property rights; (ii) lowering administrative barriers and regulation; (iii) increasing competition in domestic markets; (iv) enhancing customs administration and reducing trade barriers; and (v) improving the transparency and efficiency of public investment procedures. Reinvigorating the privatization agenda, as soon as market conditions permit, would enhance economic efficiency. A deeper and more efficient financial system would improve the allocation of capital thereby enhancing economic growth.
    Keywords: Economic indicators;Balance of payments statistics;Bank resolution;Article IV consultation reports;Economic recession;Financial sector;Fiscal policy;Fiscal reforms;Press releases;Monetary policy;Russian Federation;Staff Reports;oil prices, inflation, monetary fund, debt, balance of payments
    Date: 2015–08–03
  7. By: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
    Abstract: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economy of Poland has recovered from the 2012–13 slowdown. Growth accelerated to 3.4 percent in 2014, and further to 3.6 percent in the first quarter of 2015, on the back of buoyant domestic demand, supported by improving labor market and financial conditions. However, inflation has remained negative since July 2014 owing to low commodity prices and weak imported inflation. The outlook is for continued robust growth and subdued inflation amid downside risks. Economic expansion is expected to continue, with growth projected at 3.5 percent in 2015 and over the medium term.
    Keywords: Poland;inflation, monetary fund, monetary policy, market, credit growth
    Date: 2015–07–14
  8. By: Salahodjaev, Raufhon; Safarova, Nilufar
    Abstract: Using cross-country panel data for 23 post-communist countries, we provide novel empirical evidence that tourism exerts a positive and significant effect on economic growth after controlling for conventional determinants in the growth equation. The system GMM results suggest that per-capita tourism receipts increase by 10 percent, the per-capita growth rate increases by 1.36% points, ceteris paribus. The results remain robust under various estimation methods.
    Keywords: tourism, economic growth, post-communist, GMM, PCSE.
    JEL: O1 O11 O4
    Date: 2015–08–20

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