nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2015‒08‒19
twenty-one papers chosen by
J. David Brown
United States Census Bureau

  1. Slower growth and vulnerability to recession: updating China’s global impact By Rod Tyers
  2. Government revenues and expenditures in the EU ex-communist countries: a bootstrap panel Granger causality approach By Mihai Mutascu
  3. Russia: Progress in Structural Reform and Framework Conditions 2011-13 By Yana Vaziakova
  4. Modification of the LCOE model to estimate a cost of heat and power generation for Russia By Bratanova, Alexandra; Robinson, Jacqueline; Wagner, Liam
  5. The Interaction of Grassroots Communities and Local Authorities in Russia By Igor Shagalov
  6. Do Social Networks Improve Chinese Adults' Subjective Well-being? By Lei, Xiaoyan; Shen, Yan; Smith, James P.; Zhou, Guangsu
  7. Transition and capital misallocation: the Chinese case By Damien Cubizol
  8. Impact of property rights reform to support China?s rural-urban integration : household-level evidence from the Chengdu national experiment By Deininger,Klaus W.; Jin,Songqing; Liu,Shouying; Xia,Fang
  9. Household food security and consumption patterns in Central and Eastern Europe: the Case of Slovakia By Pokrivcak, Jan; Cupak, Andrej; Rizov, Marian
  10. Access to Finance: Microfinance Innovations in the People’s Republic of China By Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
  11. Left‐Behind Children and Return Decisions of Rural Migrants in China By Sylvie Démurger; Hui Xu
  12. Le nouveau modèle de croissance de l’économie chinoise, un moyen pour relever le défi de la trappe à revenu intermédiaire ? By Laëtitia Guilhot
  13. The impact of the Lehman Brothers’ Bankruptcy on the Performance of Chinese Sectors By Kumari Ranjeeni; Susan S Sharma
  14. Determinants of unemployment in CEE-10 economies: the role of labour market institutions and the macroeconomic environment in 2002–2012 By Pesliakaite, Jurgita
  15. Forms and methods of combating the illegal use of insider information and intentional market manipulation in modern Russia By Alexandr Susyev
  16. RIO Country Report Poland 2014 By Krzysztof Klincewicz
  17. The role of the technology and innovation gap in Polish trade relations. Empirical verification with the use of trade gravity approach By Tomasz Brodzicki; Katarzyna Sledziewska
  18. RIO Country Report Slovak Republic 2014 By Vladimír Baláž
  19. Assessing greenhouse gas emissions in Estonia's energy system By Halkos, George; Tzeremes, Panagiotis
  20. Regional Integration and the Rule of Law By Christian Danne
  21. Distributional impacts of energy cross-subsidization in transition economies : evidence from Belarus By Grainger,Corbett Alden; Zhang,Fan; Schreiber,Andrew William

  1. By: Rod Tyers
    Abstract: Central to the global impacts of China’s emergence has been its structural imbalance (its excess product supply and excess saving), but this has diminished considerably in the transition years since 2010. These imbalances are now reversed as its consumption expands faster than its GDP and so the global implications are qualitatively different. Moreover, higher income, slower growth, and therefore increasing similarity with the advanced economies, implies that consumer and business confidence are now more central to performance, rendering recession possible, and more likely as the growth slowdown raises the intensity of the domestic spotlight on political performance. The international effects of the transition and a possible recession are here quantified using a global macro model with national portfolio rebalancing. The transition to consumption-led growth is shown to foster employment abroad, particularly in the US, while a major Chinese recession is shown to be damaging to the advanced economies and particularly to the US, the more so if China’s policy response is expansionary and includes floating the RMB.
    Keywords: China, imbalances, saving, monetary policy, spill-overs, recession
    JEL: F42 F43 F47
    Date: 2015–08
  2. By: Mihai Mutascu (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans - CNRS - UO - Université d'Orléans, University of Orleans - LEO)
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to investigate the causality between government revenues and government spending in the case of 10 EU ex-communist countries, for the period 1995-2012, by following the bootstrap panel Granger causality approach proposed by Kónya (2006). The main results show that unidirectional causality from public expenditure to revenues is registered only in the case of Bulgaria, while for Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovenia the government revenues Granger cause expenditures. A two-way causality is observed only for Slovak Republic. No Granger causality is found for the rest of the sample (i.e. Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Romania).
    Date: 2015–01–25
  3. By: Yana Vaziakova
    Abstract: Since 1995 when OECD began conducting Economic Surveys of the Russian Federation many policy recommendations relating to structural reform and framework conditions have been made. This paper is an update of an earlier paper that described actions taken up to October 2011 (Vaziakova et al., 2011). It expands the Annex A.1 of the 2013 OECD Economic Survey of the Russian Federation and provides a summary table of the policies implemented. This Working Paper relates to the 2014 Economic Survey of the Russian Federation<P>Russie : Progrès des réformes structurelles et des conditions-cadres 2011-13<BR>Depuis 1995, date à laquelle l'OCDE a commencé à mener des Études économiques de la Fédération de Russie, un grand nombre de recommandations politiques relatives aux réformes structurelles et aux conditions-cadres ont été mises en oeuvre en Russie. Ce document est une mise à jour d'un document de travail antérieur qui décrit les mesures prises jusqu'en Octobre 2011 (Vaziakova et al., 2011). Il élargit l'annexe 1.A1 de l’Étude économique de la Fédération de Russie 2013 et fournit un tableau récapitulatif des politiques adoptées. Ce document de travail se rapporte à l’Étude économique de l’OCDE 2014 sur la Fédération de Russie que-russie.htm.
    Keywords: labour markets, energy sector, structural reforms, fiscal policy, social policy
    JEL: E5 E62 F13 H1 H2 H82 H83 I18 I2 J2 J3 K20 K21 L1 L3 L4 L5 L9 P3 Q1
    Date: 2015–08–07
  4. By: Bratanova, Alexandra; Robinson, Jacqueline; Wagner, Liam
    Abstract: The Russian heat sector faces crucial problems including underinvestment, below cost pricing, generation capacity and infrastructure depletion. While the Russian electricity sector has gradually progressed through liberalization, the heat sector is still waiting for similar reforms to occur. The modernisation of the sector requires analysis of energy generation costs to suggest feasible technological solutions and secure an increase of investment in the industry. This study presents a modification of a levelised cost of energy (LCOE) model with cost separation coefficients based on Ginter triangles. The modified LCOE model is applied to a regional case study (Moscow, Russia) providing a comparison of generation technology according to cost estimates for electricity and heat under regionally specific economic and technological conditions. We consider five combined heat and power (CHP) generation technology types for two natural gas price scenarios. The modelling outcomes demonstrate cost competitiveness of gas based CHP technology and provide valuable information to assist decision making for the management of the energy sector in Russia.
    Keywords: cogeneration, levelised cost, heat generation, Ginter triangle, Russia, Moscow
    JEL: C52 Q41 Q47
    Date: 2015–08–01
  5. By: Igor Shagalov (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: Taking into consideration the underdevelopment of the Russian civil community it is of essential interest to touch upon local communities (known as TOS). Local governments and TOS communities could provide similar services and as such cooperate or compete with each other. Community initiatives could supplant poorly performing government services, or governments could outsource to communities some of its functions. Based on empirical Russian data, collected in the city of Kirov this research shows that the prevailing initial incentive to establish TOS is driven by the prospect of obtaining seed money from the government. We detected sources of TOS advantages over municipal authorities: ratio of costs and benefits, sensitivity to the demands of consumers, social capital, and voluntary nature of TOS. TOS are more likely to emerge in communities where people are sceptical about the efficacy of conventional mechanisms of democratic accountability, and prefer to collaborate with municipal governments on specific projects
    Keywords: TOS, non-profit organization, efficiency, social capital, local authorities, civil community, Russia
    JEL: L31 L33
    Date: 2015
  6. By: Lei, Xiaoyan (Peking University); Shen, Yan (Peking University); Smith, James P. (RAND); Zhou, Guangsu (Peking University)
    Abstract: This paper studies relationships between social networks, health and subjective well-being (SWB) using nationally representative data of the Chinese Population – the Chinese Family Panel Studies (CFPS). Our data contain SWB indicators in two widely used variants – happiness and life-satisfaction. Social network variables used include kinship relationships measured by marital status, family size, and having a genealogy; ties with friends/relatives/neighbors measured by holiday visitation, frequency of contacts, and whether and value gifts given and received; total number and time spent in social activities, and engagement in organizations including the communist party, religious groups, and other types. We find that giving and receiving gifts has a larger impact on SWB than either just giving or receiving them. Similarly the number of friends is more important than number of relatives, and marriage is associated with higher levels of SWB. Time spent in social activities and varieties of activities both matter for SWB but varieties matters more. Participation in organization is associated with higher SWB across such diverse groups as being a member of the communist party or a religious organization. China represents an interesting test since it is simultaneously a traditional society with long-established norms about appropriate social networks and a rapidly changing society due to substantial economic and demographic changes. We find that it is better to both give and receive, to engage in more types of social activities, and that participation in groups all improves well-being of Chinese people.
    Keywords: China, social networks, subjective well-being
    JEL: O10 O53
    Date: 2015–07
  7. By: Damien Cubizol (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Etienne - PRES Université de Lyon - CNRS)
    Abstract: This paper addresses the allocation puzzle of capital flows and privatization in emerging countries in transition. It demonstrates that the allocation of household savings to State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), and not to the increasing share of private firms, solves both the allocation puzzle of capital flows and the drop in consumption in China. The contribution is to explain these two elements in a dynamic general equilibrium model with TFP growth that differentiates FDI and financial capital. In addition to other frictions, public banks and SOEs have the crucial role in capital misallocation by misdirecting household savings. It modifies firms' labor and capital intensiveness, creates shifts in savings accumulation, and households satisfy the large cheap labor demand coupled with low returns on their savings. With a calibration adapted to the Chinese case and deterministic shocks, the model also matches to a large extent the data for a variety of stylized facts over the last 30 years.
    Date: 2015–07–16
  8. By: Deininger,Klaus W.; Jin,Songqing; Liu,Shouying; Xia,Fang
    Abstract: As part of a national experiment in 2008, Chengdu prefecture implemented ambitious property rights reforms, including complete registration of all land together with measures to ease transferability and eliminate migration restrictions. A triple difference approach using the Statistics Bureau?s regular household panel suggests that the reforms increased consumption and income, especially for less wealthy and less educated households, with estimated benefits well above the cost of implementation. Local labor supply increased, with the young shifting toward agriculture and the old toward off-farm employment. Agricultural yields, intensity of input use, and diversity of output also increased. Improving property rights in peri-urban China appears to have increased investment and diversification.
    Keywords: Access to Finance,Economic Theory&Research,Public Sector Management and Reform,Labor Policies,Rural Development Knowledge&Information Systems
    Date: 2015–08–11
  9. By: Pokrivcak, Jan; Cupak, Andrej; Rizov, Marian
    Abstract: We investigate the food security situation of Slovak households in terms of both access to food and quality of the diet consumed by estimating food demand system and diet diversity demand models using household budget survey data over the period 2004-2010. In most samples demand for meat and fish and fruits and vegetables is expenditure and own-price elastic. On average all five food groups investigated are found to be normal goods. Rural and low-income households appear more expenditure and price sensitive compared to the urban and high-income ones. Results from quantile regressions indicate that income has a positive while uncertainty has a negatively effect on the diversity of the diet as the effects are stronger in more vulnerable, low income and rural consumer subsamples. Overall the food security situation in Slovakia appears to have improved over time, since the country’s EU accession.
    Keywords: Food security, demand, QUAIDS, elasticity, diet diversity, Slovakia, Agricultural and Food Policy, D12, I12, O52, Q18,
    Date: 2015–06
  10. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (East Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (East Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
    Abstract: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has adopted a more market-oriented approach by promoting rural microfinance, pursuing bottom-up innovations such as group lending, various forms of guarantees, new financial products based on purchase orders and insurance policies, and better incentives for agriculture funding from financial institutions. In 2009, the PRC sought the assistance of the Asian Development Bank to study how to optimize policy choices in rural finance using both top-down and bottom-up approaches. This report presents the findings of that rural microfinance study, including valuable lessons learned from several pilot microlending programs conducted in selected provinces in the PRC. It then analyzes outstanding issues in the country’s rural and microfinance markets that need to be addressed more vigorously.
    Keywords: People's Republic of China, Microfinance, Rural Finance, Financial Innovation, Rural Financial Market, Rural Financial Institution, Rural Financial Supervision, MSE Finance, Rural Financing Difficulty, Chanyeyuan, Value Chain, Cooperative Financing, Mutual Aid Fund, Microfinance Development, Agriculture Loan, Poverty Reduction
    Date: 2015–01
  11. By: Sylvie Démurger (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Etienne - PRES Université de Lyon - CNRS); Hui Xu (Beijing Normal University / Beijing)
    Abstract: This paper examines how left-behind children influence migration duration in China. We first present a simple illustrative model that incorporates economic and non-economic motives to migration duration. Using individual data from a survey carried out in Wuwei county (Anhui province) in 2008, we find that migrant parents of children in primary school tend to delay their return, a result we interpret as illustrating the need for migrant parents to accumulate money for their offspring’s education. In contrast, parental time appears substitutable by coresiding grandparents who contribute to delay the parents’ return, especially mothers, when they have children below the age of 12.
    Date: 2015
  12. By: Laëtitia Guilhot (CREG - Centre de recherche en économie de Grenoble - Grenoble 2 UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France)
    Abstract: The new growth model of the Chinese economy as a way to face a challenge of the middle income trap ? Abstract The Chinese growth model set up in the 70s and based on strong cost and price competitiveness, has allowed China's economic development. Since the beginning of the XXI century, the Chinese authorities are aware of the economic, social and environmental limits of this model. They have trying to set up a model of sustainable consumption and production. If this model is successful, this would allow the Chinese economy to face the challenge of the middle-income trap.
    Abstract: Le modèle de croissance chinois mis en place fin des années 70, reposant sur une forte compétitivité-cout et prix, a permis le développement économique de la Chine. Depuis le début du XXI ème siècle, les autorités chinoises prennent conscience des limites économiques, sociales et environnementales de ce modèle. Elles tentent, depuis, de mettre en place un mode de consommation et de production soutenable. Si ce modèle aboutit, cela permettrait à l'économie chinoise de relever le défi de la trappe à revenu intermédiaire.
    Date: 2015–06–03
  13. By: Kumari Ranjeeni (Deakin University); Susan S Sharma (Deakin University)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of the news announcement of the Lehman Brothers’ (LBs’) bankruptcy on the performance of Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) sectors. Unlike the assumption in this literature that firms are homogenous, we address the unknown issue: does LBs’ bankruptcy have a heterogenous effect on stock returns of sectors listed on SSE? We employ an event study approach and use daily data for a total of 845 firms grouped into nine sectors, we find fresh results, previously undocumented in this literature. First, our results show that unlike the United States (see Ranjeeni 2014), Chinese Energy and Financial sectors were insignificantly affected from LBs’ bankruptcy. This implies that these sectors can provide cross-country diversification opportunities for US investors during volatile periods. Second, we find statistically insignificant effect of LBs’ bankruptcy on the performance of the financial sector while most of the other sectors suffered significantly. This implies that the Chinese market level analysis conducted by Bianconi et al. (2013) is influenced by the performance of the financial sector. Finally, our results highlight on the heterogeneous effect of LBs’ bankruptcy on different Chinese sectors and at different time intervals surrounding the event.
    Keywords: Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy, Global Financial Crisis, abnormal returns, Chinese sectors, event study.
    JEL: G01 G11 G14 G33
  14. By: Pesliakaite, Jurgita
    Abstract: The view that an institutional structure causes rigidities of the labour market is broadly accepted by policy makers. This assessment is conventionally based on unemployment theories that establish a linkage between labour market institutions and unemployment in the long run. Empirical research engages in investigation if the theoretical link between unemployment and labour market institutions could be proved to prevail. This paper provides an econometric analysis of determinants of unemployment in the long run in a set of Central and Eastern European countries for the period of 2002–2012. The evidence that institutional structure cause rigidities of the labour market and have direct effects on unemployment rate in these economies is found in this study. A set of non-structural indicators, accounted by macroeconomic shocks, also prove to have effects on the labour market outcomes. From a policy making perspective such implications suggest that structural labour market reforms and increases in the overall labour market flexibility in these economies is required to bring unemployment rates down.
    Keywords: unemployment, labour market institutions, Central and Eastern European economies
    JEL: E02 J60
    Date: 2015–08–14
  15. By: Alexandr Susyev (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University)
    Abstract: The urgency of this problem is caused by particularly acute hazards associated with the misuse of insider information and market manipulation. Disclosure of information not intended for a wide range of people or the use of illicit trading technologies, when some competitors enjoy significant advantages over others, seriously threatens the normal functioning of the domestic financial market. The paper notes that in addition to direct financial loss - compensations, fines and costs aimed to eliminate the impact of unauthorized disclosure of valuable internal (insider) information regarding various nuances of activities and deliberate manipulation of the market - the company (companies) experience huge consequential damages. This results in drawing away clients, increasing competition, losing business reputation. In conclusion, the article discusses in detail the institutional forms and methods of combating these negative phenomena, used in Russia and other developed countries.
    Keywords: insider information, insider trading, market manipulation
    JEL: D E G G G
    Date: 2015–08
  16. By: Krzysztof Klincewicz (University of Warsaw (Warsaw, Poland))
    Abstract: This analytical country report is the first of a series of annual RIO Country Reports. This Country Report builds on the series of ERAWATCH reports. The report offers an analysis of the R&I system in Poland for 2014, including relevant policies and funding, with particular focus on topics critical for two EU policies: the European Research Area and the Innovation Union. The report was prepared according to a set of guidelines for collecting and analysing a range of materials, including policy documents, statistics, evaluation reports, websites etc. The report identifies the structural challenges of the Polish research and innovation system and assesses the match between the national priorities and those challenges, highlighting the latest policy developments, their dynamics and impact in the overall national context.
    Keywords: R&I system, R&I policy, ERA, innovation union, Semester analysis, Poland
    JEL: I20 O30 Z18
    Date: 2015–06
  17. By: Tomasz Brodzicki (University of Gdansk, Faculty of Economics; Institute for Development); Katarzyna Sledziewska (University of Warsaw)
    Abstract: The technology gap theory as advocated by Posner (1961) described an advantage enjoyed by a country that introduces new goods into a market, gaining an initial edge and establishing its initial exporter status. The nexus between technology and innovation gap and trade is however much more complex. The goal of this paper is to investigate the actual role of technology and innovation gap in explaining intensity of bilateral trade flows of Poland with its trade partners at the general (country level) with the use of trade gravity approach. The analysis is carried out for 234 trade partners of Poland in the period 1999-2013. Technology gap is measured by TFP and relative patenting performance controlling for quality of institutions as well as technology and innovation indices of Global Competitiveness Report by the WEF (2014). In order to obtain unbiased results we utilize semi-mixed effects model using Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) estimator.
    Keywords: technology, gap trade gravity, semi-mixed effect panel model
    JEL: C23 F10 F14 F15
    Date: 2015–08
  18. By: Vladimír Baláž (The Institute for Forecasting of the Slovak Academy of Sciences (Slovakia))
    Abstract: The report offers an analysis of the R&I system in the Slovak Republic for 2014, including relevant policies and funding, with particular focus on topics critical for two EU policies: the European Research Area and the Innovation Union. The report was prepared according to a set of guidelines for collecting and analysing a range of materials, including policy documents, statistics, evaluation reports, websites etc. The report identifies the structural challenges of the Slovak research and innovation system and assesses the match between the national priorities and those challenges, highlighting the latest policy developments, their dynamics and impact in the overall national context.
    Keywords: R&I system, R&I policy, ERA, innovation union, Semester analysis, Slovak Republic
    JEL: I20 O30 Z18
    Date: 2015–06
  19. By: Halkos, George; Tzeremes, Panagiotis
    Abstract: This paper investigates Estonia’s prospects in meeting the new European Union climate commitments to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions till 2030 by 40% and 2050 by 80-95% compared to 1990 emission levels. The contribution of this study is twofold. In a first stage, based on organizations reports and using the Long range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP) it constructs seven long-term scenarios to examine Estonia's energy system till 2050. In a second stage, using the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) nonparametric approach it evaluates the efficiency of renewable energy commitments in reducing GHG emissions. The findings show that the main challenge for the Estonia policy makers will be the energy policies associated with the renewable energy usage. It appears that under the seven different energy policy scenarios the higher the participation of renewable energy the higher the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.
    Keywords: LEAP software; Renewable energy sources; Scenarios analysis; Data Envelopment Analysis; Estonia.
    JEL: Q20 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q50 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2015–08
  20. By: Christian Danne
    Abstract: This paper constructs agreement specific instruments in order to estimate the effect of membership in a regional cooperation agreement (RCA) on institutional change. For a sample of 144 emerging and developing economies, the results show that membership in a RCA explains a significant part of the cross country variation in institutional reforms. EU and NATO-related agreements are an important reason why emerging markets in Eastern Europe and Central Asia have been better reformers despite their socialistic heritage. RCAs are a main factor why African economies are still doing very poorly in terms of institutional reforms. I show that the construction of the RCA and the willingness delegate sovereignty is behind the effect on institutions and is an important.
    Keywords: Economic institutions, reforms, regional cooperation
    JEL: F53 F55 H11 O11 O19
    Date: 2015–07
  21. By: Grainger,Corbett Alden; Zhang,Fan; Schreiber,Andrew William
    Abstract: Subsidies and cross-subsidies in the energy sector are common throughout Eastern Europe and Central Asia. In Belarus, revenues from an industrial tariff on electricity are used to cross-subsidize heating for households. Input-output (IO) data and a household consumption survey are used to analyze the distributional impacts of this cross-subsidization. This paper illustrates cost shares and electricity-intensity of different sectors and consumption categories and uses the IO data to obtain first-order estimates of the distributional incidence of policy reform. The paper then analyzes distributional impacts of subsidy reform with a Computable General Equilibrium model. Although poorer households benefit from reduced heating costs, the increase in prices of other consumer goods due to higher electricity prices more than offsets the benefits they receive from the subsidies. The analysis finds that the current cross-subsidies are regressive, and policy reform would be highly progressive.
    Keywords: Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Energy Production and Transportation,Economic Theory&Research,Emerging Markets,Markets and Market Access
    Date: 2015–08–06

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