nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2015‒07‒04
thirty-six papers chosen by
J. David Brown
United States Census Bureau

  1. Can Bureaucrats Really Be Paid Like CEOs? School Administrator Incentives for Anemia Reduction in Rural China By Renfu Luo; Grant Miller; Scott Rozelle; Sean Sylvia; Marcos Vera-Hernández
  2. Hukou and highways : the impact of China?s spatial development policies on urbanization and regional inequality By Bosker,Maarten; Deichmann,Uwe; Roberts,Mark
  3. Does Financing of Chinese Mergers and Acquisitions Have “Chinese Characteristics”? By Lulu Gu; W. Robert Reed
  4. Investments in fixed assets in Russia in 2014 By Olga Izryadnova
  5. Russia’s State Budget in 2014 By Sergey Belev; Maria Deshko; Arseny Mamedov; Evgenia Fomina
  6. Children of Migrants: The Cumulative Impact of Parental Migration on their Children's Education and Health Outcomes By Xin Meng; Chikako Yamauchi
  7. Macroeconomıc Analysıs And Graphıcal Interpretatıon Of Azerbaıjan Economy In 1991-2012 By Suleymanov, Elchin; Aliyev, Khatai
  8. Do entrants take it all? The evolution of task content of jobs in Poland By Piotr Lewandowski; Wojciech Hardy; Roma Keister
  9. Russian Agriculture: the impact of sanctions By Natalia Karlova; Vasily Uzun; Natalia Shagaida; Renata Yanbykh
  10. MANAGEMENT BY VALUES. RESULTS OF SELF- RESEARCH By Izabela Sta; Tadeusz Oleksyn; Andrzej Herman
  11. Russia’s Inter-budgetary Relations and Sub-national Finances in 2014 By Arseny Mamedov; Andrey Alaev; Alexander Deryugin
  12. The Higher Education in 2014: inconsistence of reform measures By Tatiana Klyachko
  13. Measuring Child Poverty by the Rothbarth Scales: Estimates for an Urban Chinese East Coast Province By Feridoon Koohi-Kamali; Yibin Liu
  14. Migration Processes in Russia in 2014 By Lilia Karachurina
  16. Women in the labour market in China By Dasgupta, Sukti; Matsumoto, Makiko; Xia, Cuntao
  17. Analysis of Child Gender Discrimination Based on Adults' Consumption Patterns: Microdata Evidence from China By Feridoon Koohi-Kamali; R. Liu; Y. Liu
  18. Russia’s Monetary and Fiscal Policy in 2014 By Alexandra Bozhechkova; Pavel Trunin; Michael Khromov; Alexander Knobel; Anna Kiyutsevskaya
  19. Russia’s Money Markets and Financial Institutions in 2014 By Alexander Abramov
  20. The Living Standards of Russia's Population in 2014 By Svetlana Misikhina
  21. Russia’s Socioeconomic Policy: Emergence of New Horizons By Vladimir Mau
  22. Product Differentiation, Export Participation and Productivity Growth: Evidence from Chinese Manufacturing Firms By Hu, Cui; Tan, Yong
  23. Bank Ownership And Cost Efficiency In Russia, Revisited By Mikhail Mamonov; Andrei Vernikov
  24. A study on market inclusion through enhanced eco-management in Bulgarian farms By Bachev, Hrabrin
  25. Aufwind im Westen Mittel-, Ost- und Südosteuropas: Wichtige Wachstumsimpulse für Österreich By Mario Holzner
  26. Internationalization Of Regional Clusters: Theoretical And Empirical Issues By Ekaterina Islankina
  27. Cohesion Policy as a Function of the EU Budget By Mojmir Mrak; Sandor Richter; Tamás Szemlér
  28. The Macroeconomic Pass-through Effects of Monetary Policy through Sign Restrictions Approach: In the Case of Albania By Gerti Shijaku
  29. The Decomposition of Russia's GDP Growth Rate in 1999–2015 By Sergey Drobyshevsky; Maria Kazakova
  30. Regional Development in an Ageing Society: Overview of Selected Foreign and Polish Recommendations and Practices By Klimczuk, Andrzej
  31. The Russian Banking Sector in 2014 By Mikhail Khromov
  32. Who will be affected by rising energy prices? Map of energy expenditures of Poles By Maciej Lis; Agata Miazga
  33. Estimating the External Returns to Education: Evidence from China By Fan, Wen; Ma, Yuanyuan; Wang, Liming
  34. How does parenthood affect life satisfaction in Russia? By Mikucka, Malgorzata
  35. The State of science and innovation in Russia in 2014 By Irina Dezhina
  36. Russia’s Market for Municipal and Subfederal Borrowings in 2014 By Artem Shadrin

  1. By: Renfu Luo; Grant Miller; Scott Rozelle; Sean Sylvia; Marcos Vera-Hernández
    Abstract: A large literature examines performance pay for managers in the private sector, but little is known about performance pay for managers in public sector bureaucracies. In this paper, we study performance incentives rewarding school administrators for reducing anemia among their students. Randomly assigning 170 schools to three performance incentive levels and two orthogonal sizes of unconditional grants, we analyze performance pay and its complementarity with discretionary resources. We find that both large incentives and larger unconditional grants reduced anemia substantially, but incentives were more cost-effective. Performance incentives led administrators to innovate by working with parents, mitigating potentially offsetting compensatory behavior among households. Strikingly, we also find that larger unconditional grants completely crowded-out the effect of incentives. Our findings suggest that performance incentives can be effective in bureaucratic environments – but also that discretionary resources can fully crowd-out their effect.
    JEL: C93 H40 I12 M52 O15
    Date: 2015–06
  2. By: Bosker,Maarten; Deichmann,Uwe; Roberts,Mark
    Abstract: China has used two main spatial policies to shape its geographic patterns of development: restricted labor mobility through the Hukou residential registration system and massive infrastructure investment, notably a 96,000 kilometer national expressway network. This paper develops a structural new economic geography model to examine the impacts of these policies. Fitting the model to available data allows simulating counterfactual scenarios comparing each policy?s respective impact on regional economic development and urbanization patterns across China. The results suggest large overall economic benefits from constructing the national expressway network and abolishing the Hukou system. Yet, the spatial impacts of the two policies are very different. The construction of the national expressway network reinforced existing urbanization patterns. The initially lagging regions not connected to the network have not benefitted much from its construction. By contrast, removal of the Hukou restrictions, which Chinese policy makers are considering, would result in much more widespread welfare gains, allowing everyone to gain by moving to where he or sheis most productive. Removal of the Hukou restrictions would also promote urbanization in currently lagging (inland) regions, mostly by stimulating rural to urban migration.
    Keywords: Transport Economics Policy&Planning,National Urban Development Policies&Strategies,Economic Theory&Research,Population Policies,Labor Policies
    Date: 2015–06–30
  3. By: Lulu Gu; W. Robert Reed (University of Canterbury)
    Abstract: This paper investigates two hypotheses about Chinese financing of mergers and acquisitions (M&As). The first hypothesis is that foreign ownership restrictions by the government cause Chinese acquirers to rely more on cash to finance their overseas M&A deals. The second hypothesis is that state-owned enterprizes (SOEs) will rely more on cash to finance their M&A deals because they are able to secure better borrowing terms. We collate data from four databases to obtain a sample of over 6000 M&A deals that were completed during the 1997-2014 period. We find strong evidence to support the first hypothesis but not the second.
    Keywords: Mergers and acquisitions (M&As), foreign ownership restrictions, state owned enterprises (SOEs), M&A financing, Chinese firms
    JEL: G34 G28 N20
    Date: 2015–06–22
  4. By: Olga Izryadnova (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This paper deals with domestic capital investments in Russia in 2014.
    Keywords: Russian economy, fixed assets, investment
    JEL: F34 G24
    Date: 2015
  5. By: Sergey Belev (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Maria Deshko (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Arseny Mamedov (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Evgenia Fomina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This paper deals with Russia's federal budget
    Keywords: Russian economy, budget parameters, budgetary system, budget outlays, revenues, public debt
    JEL: E62 H20 H50 H61 H70
    Date: 2015
  6. By: Xin Meng (Research School of Economics, CBE, Australian National University); Chikako Yamauchi (GRIPS)
    Abstract: In the past 15 years, around 160 million Chinese rural workers migrated to cities for work. Because of restrictions on migrant access to local health and education system, many migrant children are left-behind in rural villages and growing up without parental care. This paper examines how parental migration affects children's health and education outcomes in the long run. Using the Rural-Urban Migration Survey in China (RUMiC) data, we measure the share of children's lifetime during which parents were away from home. We instrument this measure of parental absence with weather changes in their home villages when parents were aged 16-25, or when they were most likely to initiate migration. Results show a sizable adverse impact of exposure to parental migration on the health and education outcomes of children, in particular boys. We also find that what the literature has always done (using contemporaneous measure for parental migration) is likely to underestimate the effect of exposure to parental migration on children's outcomes.
    Date: 2015–06
  7. By: Suleymanov, Elchin; Aliyev, Khatai
    Abstract: The aim of this research is to analyze macroeconomic performance and discuss transition indicators in Azerbaijan economy for 1991-2012. After regaining independence in 1991, Azerbaijan implemented economic transition process toward market economy. In first years of independence serious economic recession was observed. However, after 1995, restructuring of the economy was started. In this sense, signing “Contract of the Century” was a turning point toward oil based high speed economic growth or oil boom period. Thus, by opening “Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan” pipeline in 2005, Azerbaijan’s macroeconomic indicators experienced with considerable growth for following years. On the other hand, Azerbaijan officially declared the end of economic transition process in its economy in 2009. Here, the author discusses political-economic and economic process in whole period as well as analyzes macroeconomic performance with and without oil & gas contribution. In addition, the author questions if economic transition was ended in Azerbaijan economy. After all, it is concluded that oil & gas production has serious impact over macroeconomic indicators and transition indicators for Azerbaijan implies the end of economic transition partly, not totally.
    Keywords: Azerbaijan economy, macroeconomic analysis, oil and gas, economic transition
    JEL: D00 O5 O53 Q4 Q40 Q43
    Date: 2015–03
  8. By: Piotr Lewandowski; Wojciech Hardy; Roma Keister
    Abstract: In this paper we analyse the changes in task content of jobs in Poland between 1996 and 2014. We follow the approach taken by Autor, Levy & Murnane (2003) and Acemoglu and Autor (2011) of using the O*NET 2003 and 2014 data and the Polish LFS data, with a 4-digit occupation classification. We find an increasing intensity of both non-routine and routine cognitive tasks, and a decreasing intensity of both routine and non-routine manual tasks, mainly due to shifts in the employment structure between occupations. Cohorts born after 1970 underwent large shifts in the task intensity structure and contributed most to the overall changes in task contents, while almost no adjustments occurred in cohorts born before 1970. The growth of non-routine cognitive tasks among workers born after the 1970 was largely driven by the tertiary education boom in Poland, although in some cohorts the rising supply of tertiary graduates was accompanied by a relative reduction of the non-routine content of jobs.
    Keywords: task content of jobs, routinisation, intergenerational divide
    JEL: J24 J23 I25
    Date: 2015–06
  9. By: Natalia Karlova (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Vasily Uzun (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Natalia Shagaida (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Renata Yanbykh (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This paper deals with the issues related to restrictions imposed by the Russian government on import of agricultural products.
    Keywords: Russian economy, Russian agricultural production, sanctions
    Date: 2015
  10. By: Izabela Sta (Jagiellonian University in Cracow); Tadeusz Oleksyn (Warsaw School of Economics); Andrzej Herman (Warsaw School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper shall present the synthesis of the results of research carried out in Poland in 2014 by a team of five researchers from three academic centres from Poland with relation to management by respecting and promoting values.These referred to data surveys (N=512) and case studies (five multinational and national corporations operating in Poland). With regard to the research, this related to groups of economic and managerial values, as well as competence and developmental ones, while also ethical and cultural, civic and social ones in terms of their perception and utilization in organizations for the purposes of management itself. The relations of values with that of staffing policies have been analysed, such as decisions on recruitment and redundancies, promotions and demotions, while also appraisal of work and employees, remuneration and intangible rewards. Likewise, the ties betweenthe concept of MBV and the legislative and organizational forms have been placed under analysis.The research at hand was the basis for the formulation of an array of interesting conclusions
    Keywords: values, management, management by values, code of values.
    JEL: J24
    Date: 2015–06
  11. By: Arseny Mamedov (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Andrey Alaev (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Alexander Deryugin (RANEPA)
    Abstract: This paper deals with Russia's inter-budgetary relations and sub-national finances
    Keywords: Russian economy; fiscal relations; subnational finances; federal budget; road funds; subnational budgets
    JEL: H5
    Date: 2015
  12. By: Tatiana Klyachko (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This paper deals with a wide range of educational system in Russia: higher education, vocational training, secondary education.
    Keywords: Russian educational institutions, educational reform
    JEL: I21 I22 I23 I24 I25 I28
    Date: 2015
  13. By: Feridoon Koohi-Kamali; Yibin Liu
    Abstract: The commonly employed Engel method of poverty measurement, based on the budget share of food, is known to lead to a large overestimation of age-specific poverty. This paper applies an alternative model based on variations in adults' living standard that offers a particularly effective method of obtaining age-specific poverty measures, especially for children. However, only a few studies using this alternative model are available. This paper contributes to that small body of studies based on the latter model by applying it to two urban surveys from an east coast province of China for 2002 and 2009. We obtain measures of child poverty that have plausible values in size when compared to those reported for other studies using the same method. Our results indicate that the extremely high Chinese rates of economic growth during 2002-09 have had only a modest impact on child poverty, and an almost negligible impact on extreme child poverty. The paper points to rising urban inequality as the most likely explanation of the results obtained.
    Date: 2015–06
  14. By: Lilia Karachurina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: In 2014, both sudden growth in public interest in migration issues and explosive increase in the number of statutory acts initiated in that field were observed. A new surge of interest in migration was triggered by the Biryulovo developments in October and the election campaign of the Mayor of Moscow which took place a little earlier. This paper deals with a wide range of migration issues. ?
    Keywords: Russian economy; migration; labor migration; domestic migration
    JEL: J11 J61 J62 F22
    Date: 2015
  15. By: Chun Chang; Kaiji Chen; Tao Zha
    Abstract: We make four contributions in this paper. First, we provide a core of macroe- conomic time series usable for systematic research on China. Second, we document, through various empirical methods, the robust ndings about striking patterns of trend and cycle. Third, we build a theoretical model that accounts for these facts. Fourth, the model's mech- anism and assumptions are corroborated by institutional details, disaggregated data, and banking time series, all of which are distinctive of Chinese characteristics. We argue that preferential credit policy for promoting heavy industries accounts for the unusual cyclical patterns as well as the post-1990s economic transition featured by the persistently rising investment rate, the declining labor income share, and a growing foreign surplus. The de- parture of our theoretical model from standard ones oers a constructive framework for studying China's modern macroeconomy.
    Date: 2015–05
  16. By: Dasgupta, Sukti; Matsumoto, Makiko; Xia, Cuntao
    Abstract: Although the rate is relatively high in China, it has declined in recent years, as has the employment to population ratio. Furthermore, there is a significant wage gap between women in and men, much of which remains “unexplained” when we carry out a decomposition analysis. To improve gender equality in the labour market, the paper points to four areas that require further attention from a policy perspective: (1) measures to promote equal access to employment for women and men; (2) creation of an enabling environment for workers with family responsibilities; (3) improved coverage of social security measures, especially for rural women; and (4) design of an appropriate retirement policy.
    Keywords: gender equality, sex discrimination, women workers, labour market, employment, income, care work, social security, retirement, China, égalité des genres, discrimination fondée sur le sexe, travailleuses, marché du travail, emploi, revenu, prestations de soins, sécurité sociale, retraite, Chine, igualdad de géneros, discriminación por razones de sexo, trabajadoras, mercado de trabajo, empleo, ingreso, prestación de cuidados, seguridad social, jubilación, China
    Date: 2015
  17. By: Feridoon Koohi-Kamali; R. Liu; Y. Liu
    Abstract: The applications of the Rothbarth model of inferring child gender discrimination from the variations in parental living standard have consistently failed to uncover evidence for bias from surveys in countries with some of the world's worst welfare outcomes for girls. This paper demonstrates the importance of the remedies required for an effective implementation of that model with an application to a survey from urban China. The paper obtains econometric evidence for the presence of child gender bias for the survey by non-parametric and semiparametric methods in addition to the standard parametric estimates. The results reported for three categories of adult goods all suggest bias against girls, in contrast to those reported in earlier applications of the model to China. The additional probit estimates of the probability of having a second child conditional on the gender of the first child provide further support for our findings. The test results cast doubts on the previous findings that claim the Rothbarth model of gender discrimination to be ineffective in identifying evidence of bias from consumption patterns.
    Date: 2015–06
  18. By: Alexandra Bozhechkova (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Pavel Trunin (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Michael Khromov (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Alexander Knobel (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Anna Kiyutsevskaya (RANEPA)
    Abstract: This paper deals with Russia's monetary policy in 2014
    Keywords: Russian economy; monetary policymoney market; inflation; balance of payments; exchange rate;
    JEL: E31 E43 E44 E51 E58 E52
    Date: 2015
  19. By: Alexander Abramov (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This paper deals with a wide scope of issues, starting with the post-crisis recovery of Russia's financial market. The author analyzes the market for shares issued by Russian companies, investigates dependence on the global conjuncture of prices and inflow and outflow of foreign portfolio investment. He also studies currency exchange rate, looks at the competition on the domestic share market, and analyzes preliminary results of the merger of the RTS and MICEX. The article deals with the market for ruble-denominated bonds. The author provides analysis of financial market risks and looks at the development of Russia's domestic savings system.
    Keywords: Russia's financial market; portfolio investment; exchange rate; share market; financial institutions; bond market;
    JEL: J14 G15 G32 E44
    Date: 2015
  20. By: Svetlana Misikhina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: Over 2014, the population’s real disposable income constituted 99.0% of its 2013 level. However, it posted growth in 2008 recession year. Growth rates of salaries in the budget-funded sphere went down. Over 2014, the level of inequality somewhat declined by comparison with 2013 level. The poverty level over the first 9 months of 2014 remained without change vis-a-vis the corresponding period of 2013. Noticeable reduction of the population’s real income and households consumption as well as small-scale of the poverty level is forecasted in 2015.
    Keywords: Russian economy; personal income; poverty; consumption, living standard, Index Gini
    JEL: I31 I32
    Date: 2015
  21. By: Vladimir Mau (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: The global crisis, which first emerged in 2007–2008, has remained the major factor determining the socioeconomic development of the world’s leading countries, Russia including. In this case, we view a crisis not as a phase in the cyclical fluctuations between growth and decline (or acceleration and slowdown) as part of the development of a given country or group of countries. Instead, we are speaking of a sufficiently lengthy turbulence period when, as a result of some profound shifts, a new economic growth model comes to the fore and begins to strongly influence the socioeconomic situation and the global economic and political equilibriums.
    Keywords: Russian economy; economic growth;
    JEL: O52 P27
    Date: 2015
  22. By: Hu, Cui; Tan, Yong
    Abstract: In this paper, we investigate how the degree of export participation and product differentiation affect firms’ productivity growth through learning-by-exporting. We extend the model of Melitz and Ottaviano (2008) to endogenize the effort firms allocate to learning. This choice depends on both the degree to which firms enter export markets and the extent to which products are differentiated across producers. Using a firm-level dataset from China’s manufacturing industries, we implement propensity score matching methods to test the model’s predictions. Our results indicate that the degree of export participation is positively correlated with TFP improvements. Simultaneously, we empirically verify that firms exporting less differentiated products experience faster TFP growth than those exporting more differentiated products.
    Keywords: Export participation, Product differentiation, TFP, Learning-by-exporting.
    JEL: D24 F1 L1
    Date: 2015–01–27
  23. By: Mikhail Mamonov (National Research University Higher School); Andrei Vernikov (National Research University Higher School)
    Abstract: This paper adds to the literature on banking in transition with regard to the comparative efficiency of public, private and foreign banks. We perform stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) of Russian bank-level quarterly data from 2005 to 2013. The method of computation of comparative cost efficiency is amended to control for the effect of the revaluations of foreign currency items in bank balance sheets. All public banks are split into the core and other state-controlled banks. We employ the generalized method of moments to estimate a set of distance functions measuring the observed differences in the SFA scores of banks and bank clusters, depending on the heterogeneity in risk preference and asset structure. These distance functions explain the changes in bank efficiency rankings. Our results on comparative bank efficiency are qualitatively different from those in mainstream papers. The efficiency scores of Russian banks are higher and less volatile, and spreads between the scores of different bank types are narrower than hitherto believed. Foreign banks appear as the least cost-efficient type of market participants, while the core state banks are, on average, nearly as efficient as domestic private banks. We suggest that foreign banks are capable of being more cost efficient than others if they increase loans-to-assets ratios above the sample median level. Core state banks, conversely, lead in terms of cost efficiency if their loans-to-assets ratio falls below the sample median level. Our approach is potentially applicable to the analysis of bank efficiency in other dollarized emerging markets
    Keywords: banks, comparative efficiency, SFA, state-controlled banks, Russia
    JEL: G21 P23 P34 P52
    Date: 2015
  24. By: Bachev, Hrabrin
    Abstract: Enhancing environmental performance is a prospective way for increasing market inclusion, effectiveness and sustainability of small-scale farms in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Nevertheless, with very few exceptions, there are no studies on forms, factors and efficiency of “eco-driven” market inclusion of smallholders in modern supply chains in Bulgaria. This paper presents findings of a first large-scale study on state, driving forces, and efficiency of market inclusion of farms through enhanced eco-management in Bulgaria. First, we identify diverse forms of eco-management in farms with different size, market orientation, product specialisation, and location. Second, we assess costs, effects, and efficiency of eco-management, including the extent it contributes to increased market inclusion of farms. Third, we specify critical personal, economic, contractual, institutional, etc. factors of managerial choice in the eco-active farms. Finally, we estimate perspectives of expansion of this particular mode of market inclusion, and suggest directions for improving public policies and business strategies of smallholders.
    Keywords: environmental management, market inclusion, forms of eco-management, Bulgarian agriculture
    JEL: Q12 Q15 Q18 Q24 Q25 Q28 Q3 Q5 Q57 Q58
    Date: 2015
  25. By: Mario Holzner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: Zusammenfassung Aufwind im Westen der MOSOEL In den mittel-, ost- und südosteuropäischen Ländern (MOSOEL) klafft der Ausblick für das Wirtschaftswachstum auch weiterhin auseinander für die meisten der neuen EU-Mitgliedstaaten (NMS) wird eine langsame Beschleunigung des BIP-Wachstums beginnend mit diesem Jahr erwartet. Für 2015 soll das Wachstum durchschnittlich auf 3% ansteigen, um 0,2 Prozentpunkte mehr als im Vorjahr. Die Erholung erfolgt um ein Jahr früher als erwartet. Wesentlicher Faktor ist die bessere Entwicklung in der Eurozone. Auch am Westbalkan wird eine (wenn auch weniger dynamische) Verbesserung der Wachstumsaussichten für die gesamte Prognoseperiode 2015-2017 erwartet. Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung 2015 in Weißrussland, Kasachstan, Russland und der Ukraine wird düster ausfallen und zum Teil noch schlechter sein als bisher erwartet. Für diese Länder sind die mittelfristigen Wirtschaftsaussichten auch mit substantiellen Risiken behaftet. Insgesamt sollte aber das verstärkte Wachstum in den MOSOEL für die österreichische Wirtschaft als Nachfrageimpuls dienen. Insbesondere die NMS sind für Österreich von zunehmender Bedeutung.   English Summary Western CESEE countries in the ascendant The outlook for GDP growth in the Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE) region remains divergent we expect a gradual acceleration of GDP growth for most of the EU’s new Member States (NMS) starting this year. For 2015 growth is expected to increase to 3% on average, by 0.2 pp more as compared to last year. The recovery comes a year earlier than expected mainly based on favourable developments in the euro area. In the Western Balkans growth prospects will also improve over the whole forecast period 2015-2017, though slightly less dynamically. Growth performance in Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine in 2015, however, will be dismal and partly worse than expected; the medium-term outlook for these countries is also fairly uncertain with considerable downside risks. Overall though, we should expect stronger CESEE growth to act as a demand stimulus for the Austrian economy. The NMS in particular are of increasing importance for Austria.
    Keywords: macroeconomic analysis, international trade, competitiveness, consumption, investment, savings, global financial crisis
    JEL: E20 F34 G01 O52 O57 P24 P27 P33 P52
    Date: 2015–07
  26. By: Ekaterina Islankina (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: Today regions are becoming independent actors able to compete globally as globalization of competition is consistent with the localization of competitive advantage. In many ways regional competitiveness is based on the clustering concept. Changes in the global economic environment are making cluster linkages more important, too. Clusters are not capable of long-term excellence and development unless their members are acting in global markets and involved in international knowledge transfer. Thus, internationalization of clusters has turned out to be a new subject of innovation policy and regional development agenda, however lacking strong scientific background in Russia. The paper aims at discovering theoretical and analytical basis for clustering concept and internationalization, the reviewing of best internationalization practices from the clusters worldwide as well as exploring empirical issues of regional clusters` internationalization in Russia and their comparison with the EU outputs. A special emphasis is put on the articulation of practical guide for cluster management organizations responsible for the development of global linkages.
    Keywords: regional development, innovative clusters, internationalization, Russia, the EU
    JEL: F20 O O19 O57 R58
    Date: 2015
  27. By: Mojmir Mrak; Sandor Richter (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Tamás Szemlér
    Abstract: Summary This study analyses the key patterns of cohesion policy within the overall framework of the EU budget, viewed from the perspective of the new Member States of Central and Eastern Europe. In more specific terms, the main objectives are, first, to analyse past trends of cohesion policy and the attitude of various groups of countries towards this policy; second, to assess the position of cohesion policy within the 2014-2020 medium-term financial framework of the EU; and third, to discuss alternative options for cohesion policy within the framework of the EU budget in the post-2020 period. In methodological terms, the conceptual parts are based primarily on a qualitative analysis of the literature while empirical inputs were provided first of all through an expert questionnaire survey and country case studies. The research results convey the important message that the feasibility of scenarios other than maintaining the ‘status quo’ will most probably not depend on the behaviour of the new Member States. Despite their strong and explicit interest in securing ample resources from cohesion policy funds for themselves, the new Member States’ administrative and academic experts with their non-negligible influence on the political decisions of their governments cannot be seen as a stumbling block in the way towards reforms for a modernised and more rule-based EU budget. A resolute shift towards increased EU budgetary support for projects with more European value added and stronger future orientation than today, and a fair and transparent distribution of net financial positions will be far more determined by the outcome of multifaceted interest reconciliation among the ‘major players’ of the ‘old’ EU-15.
    Keywords: European Union, new Member States, EU budget, Multiannual Financial Framework, cohesion policy, net financial positions
    JEL: F15 F36 F42 F53 H19 H39 H49 H87
    Date: 2015–05
  28. By: Gerti Shijaku (Bank of Albania)
    Abstract: This paper examines the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Albania during 2002 M01 - 2014 M12. The main question addresses the macroeconomic pass-through effects of a monetary policy shock, with regards to a conventional interest rate and possible different balance sheet policy changes. The analysis is based on a structural vector autoregressive model for Albanian economy that includes means of the Cholesky identification scheme and the sign restrictions approach. The former produces mixed results, that are either statistically insignificant or show a puzzle behavior. The latter is found to reduce bias, albeit with some supportive significant clear cut robustness evidences of the short run macroeconomic pass-through effects of a stimulus monetary policy that materialises within twelve periods. A stimulus monetary policy is found to support economic activity and increase price level. The effect is positive with regards to bank lending and monetary money stock variables. Exchange rate depreciates, accomplished by some higher stress on financial market condition. Both of these variables show a contemporaneously stronger response compared to the other variables. Analyses show that the greatest impact, through means of policy rate, is found to be on price level, bank lending and real money stock. In contrast, the greatest impact, through the liquidity effect, is on output, exchange rate and financial market conditions.
    Keywords: Monetary transmission mechanism, financial market condition, VAR, sign restriction identification.
    JEL: C11 C32 E12 E13 E52 E58
    Date: 2015–06–18
  29. By: Sergey Drobyshevsky (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Maria Kazakova (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: The results of the estimates obtained using the Gaidar Institute method of decomposing Russia’s GDP growth rates show that in 2015 all of the components of economic growth rates will make them negative. Furthermore, the current economic contraction is mostly of structural nature induced by the contraction of labor force and capital, as well as the stagnation of the total factor productivity. Additionally, in 2015, the average annual price of crude oil is more likely to fall below the long-time average annual, thereby making negative the foreign trade component of GDP growth rates. The market-determined component of GDP growth rates in 2015 will remain negative and even lower than that in 2014, being indicative of a stronger cyclical economic contraction in Russia. Therefore, the actual GDP appears to be below the potential value.
    Keywords: Russian economy; Russian GDP, decomposition
    JEL: F10 F14 F15 F40
    Date: 2015
  30. By: Klimczuk, Andrzej
    Abstract: The complexity of population ageing effect is a significant challenge at a regional and local level. Adaptation activities require the cooperation of local governments, business entities and non-governmental organizations. The article describes the dimensions of interventions, typology of “shrinking regions” and two initiatives: Regions for All Ages and SEN@ER - Silver Economy Network of European Regions. In addition, essay discusses the dilemmas of creating special regional strategies with their implementation factors and barriers in the construction of silver economies. It is supplemented by some conclusions from the analysis of selected regional development strategies in Poland. Summary sets out possible directions for further research for national institutions.
    Keywords: Social cohesion; Local and Regional Development; Cross-Sector Cooperation; Shrinking Regions; Silver Economy; Silver Market; Regions for All Ages
    JEL: J14 O18 P48 R58
    Date: 2015
  31. By: Mikhail Khromov (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This paper deals with Russia's banking sector in 2014. The author focuses on relationship between banks and corporate customers, foreign transactions in the banking sector, banking regulation
    Keywords: Russian economy; banking sector; foreign transactions; banking regulation
    JEL: E41 E51 E58 E21 E24
    Date: 2015
  32. By: Maciej Lis; Agata Miazga
    Abstract: Facing rising energy prices, what are expected to be an outcome of climate package, some household groups will reduce other expenditure in order to satisfy the energy consumption needs. According to Eurostat statistics, energy prices in Poland are lower than in other EU member states, but relatively high when compared to prices of other goods and services. On the basis of the 2013 Polish Household Budget Survey, we analyse determinants of energy prices. We demonstrate that electricity spending is stronger related to household characteristics, whereas heating expenditures to building characteristics. We show that increasing electricity prices affect mainly the most populous households, in particular large families. Contrary, changes in heating prices affect mostly residents of old, large houses, in small towns and in the countryside. Therefore, limiting the energy inefficiency of non-insulated buildings and more education about energy saving are crucial to minimize the social cost of climate policy.
    Keywords: energy expenditures, electricity expenditures, heating expenditures, household expenditures, energy prices, energy efficiency
    JEL: D12 Q41 Q48
    Date: 2015–06
  33. By: Fan, Wen (Nanjing University); Ma, Yuanyuan (Trinity College Dublin); Wang, Liming (University College Dublin)
    Abstract: Using longitudinal data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey, we examine how individual wages change in line with the share of college graduates in a given province. The individual fixed effect model shows that the external returns to education in China appear to be zero. We estimate an instrumental variables fixed effects model where share of college graduates is instrumented by the number of universities with special status and find positive external returns to education of about 10 per cent to 14 per cent. We also find that the returns are affected by individual heterogeneity. While negligible returns are found for urban, women, and high-educated workers, the returns are positive and statistically significant for rural, men, and low-educated workers. This finding provides the motivation for increasing education investment in rural China and targeting it more toward poorly educated workers.
    Keywords: education, public investment, externalities, China
    JEL: J0 J24 O15
    Date: 2015–06
  34. By: Mikucka, Malgorzata
    Abstract: The literature on life satisfaction dynamics during parenthood relies largely on data from Western countries. This paper tests the generality of previous conclusions and theoretical models by confronting them with estimates from Russia. We apply fixed effects regression for panel data to the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey data from years 1994-2012. We focus on the dynamics of life satisfaction during parenthood and we investigate the moderating effect of age at first birth, income, and education. The trajectory of life satisfaction during parenthood in Russia differs from the Western one. Life satisfaction of parents does not temporarily increase in the period surrounding the first birth, but it increases during the period surrounding the second birth. Moreover, the long-term effect of parenthood on life satisfaction is positive. These results provide little support to the set-point theory of happiness, but are consistent with selection to parenthood. Planning of parenthood may be an important issue for future studies.
    Keywords: fertility; subjective well-being; set-point theory; demands and rewards of parenthood; selection; fixed-effects;
    JEL: Z19
    Date: 2015–07–01
  35. By: Irina Dezhina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: In 2014, key events in the field of science were unfolding around the continuing reform of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) and the associated assessment and restructuring of academic institutions, together with the first competitive tenders run by the Russian Science Foundation (RSF) and the creation of a new list of priorities for scientific and technological development in Russia. Thus, last year could be considered transitional, when the new departments responsible for science development were being structured and their activities were adapting to the new system of management. Innovation went into a decline, the rate of which had increased by the end of the year. No new instruments of innovation policy were introduced and the state of innovation was being significantly affected by the general conditions of economic activity, the business climate and some regulatory measures that were not even directly related to public support for innovation.
    Keywords: Science in Russia, innovation, academic institutions, mobility of scientific personnel, technology platforms
    JEL: O32 O38
    Date: 2015
  36. By: Artem Shadrin (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This paper deals with Russia’s market for municipal and sub-federal borrowings.
    Keywords: Russian economy; municipalities, municipal debt, borrowing
    JEL: H74 H76 H77
    Date: 2015

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