nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2015‒06‒13
nineteen papers chosen by
J. David Brown
United States Census Bureau

  1. Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy By Chun Chang; Kaiji Chen; Daniel F. Waggoner; Tao Zha
  2. Understanding China's Lewis Turning Point: The Role of Regional Heterogeneity By Annie Wei; Fung Kwan
  3. Take-off, Persistence, and Sustainability : The Demographic Factor of Chinese Growth By Cai Fang, Lu Yang
  5. Pro-employment budgeting in China : linking employment to national and local budgets By Zhang, Ying; Li, Xiangwei; Zhang, Yutian
  6. Using CHARM to adjust for cross-hauling: the case of the Province of Hubei, China By Anthony T. Flegg; Yongming Huang; Timo Tohmo
  7. Corporate Leverage in China: Why has It Increased Fast in Recent Years and Where do the Risks Lie? By Wenlang Zhang; Gaofeng Han; Brian Ng; Steven Chan
  8. The Ruble between the Hammer and the Anvil: Oil Prices and Economic Sanctions By Christian Dreger; Jarko Fidrmuc; Konstantin Kholodilin; Dirk Ulbricht
  9. Personal Subsidiary Farms of Russian Peasants in the 1960s - 1990s: From the Standpoint of Peasant Studies By Babashkin, Vladimir
  10. How unfair is the inequality of wage earnings in Russia ? estimates from panel data By Tiwari,Sailesh; Lara Ibarra,Gabriel; Narayan,Ambar
  11. Improving the Efficiency of the Public Service and Optimization of the Number of its Personnel Structure By Yuzhakov, Vladimir; Dobrolyubova, Elena; Alexandrov, Oleg; Klochkova, E
  15. On the Effects of Formalization on Taxes and Wages : Panel Evidence from Vietnam By Amadou Boly
  16. Labour market segmentation and pensions in the Polish defined-contribution scheme By Piotr Lewandowski; Kamil Stronski; Roma Keister
  17. What Determines M&A Legal and Financial Advisors’ Competitiveness in an International Financial Centre: Using China’s Going Out Policy as a Natural Experiment By Michael, Bryane; Wojick, Dariusz; Arner, Douglas W.; Tong, Wilson; Lin, Chen; Zhou, Simon
  18. The European approach on youth employment. Survey on the ease of finding jobs among the Romanian students in economic sciences (International Conference “EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVE OF LABOR MARKET - INOVATION, EXPERTNESS, PERFORMANCE”) By Adrian Cantemir CALIN; Oana Cristina POPOVICI

  1. By: Chun Chang; Kaiji Chen; Daniel F. Waggoner; Tao Zha
    Abstract: We make four contributions in this paper. First, we provide a core of macroeconomic time series usable for systematic research on China. Second, we document, through various empirical methods, the robust findings about striking patterns of trend and cycle. Third, we build a theoretical model that accounts for these facts. Fourth, the model's mechanism and assumptions are corroborated by institutional details, disaggregated data, and banking time series, all of which are distinctive of Chinese characteristics. We argue that preferential credit policy for promoting heavy industries accounts for the unusual cyclical patterns as well as the post-1990s economic transition featured by the persistently rising investment rate, the declining labor income share, and a growing foreign surplus. The departure of our theoretical model from standard ones offers a constructive framework for studying China's modern macroeconomy.
    JEL: E2 F4 G1 H81
    Date: 2015–06
  2. By: Annie Wei (Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University); Fung Kwan (Department of Economics, University of Macau)
    Abstract: The question of whether China has reached the Lewis turning point (LTP) has recently been intensively debated in the literature. Partly, this is due to the profound policy implication of the turning point posited by Lewis (1954) and Ranis and Fei (1961), while it is also closely related to the growing concern of ChinaÕs growth sustainability. Various empirical approaches and criteria have been applied in the literature and greatly contributed to the diverse findings on the questions of ChinaÕs LTP. In this paper, we carefully review the approaches applied in the existing studies and revisit the question by applying the wage-productivity approach which is most closely to the theoretical definition of LTP and the core criterion recommended by Minami (1968). Moreover, we examine the regional heterogeneity of ChinaÕs LTP which has long been neglected in the literature but shall have significant policy implications to ChinaÕs regional economic development. Our results show that in ChinaÕs Eastern provinces, the marginal product of labour has increased rapidly and outpaced agricultural incomes by 2002 for the earliest and 2008 for the latest. In Central China, most provinces included in the sample of our study have passed the LTP by the mid to late 2000s except for Jiangxi province. In contrast, half of the examined provinces in Western China have not yet passed the turning point. The regional heterogeneity of the LTP can be explained by diverse levels of economic development of ChinaÕs regions. It also indicates that China should adopt heterogeneous industrial policies across regions.
    JEL: O1 O4 O5
    Date: 2014–07
  3. By: Cai Fang, Lu Yang
    Abstract: With the reduction of the working-age population and the increase of the population dependency ratio as the main characteristics of the demographic dividend having disappeared, China’s potential growth rate decreases. And our results suggest that demographic dividend contributed to nearly one forth of the economic growth in China in the past three decades, while TFP growth explains another one third with the remainder mainly due to capital accumulation, explaining nearly half. China’s potential growth rate will slow down—from nearly 10 per cent in the past 30 years to 7.5 per cent on average during 2011-2015—due to the diminished demographic dividend, but reform measures are conductive to clearing the institutional barriers to the supply of factors and productivity, thereby slowing the declining trend of potential growth rate. The aggregate reform dividend (e.g., relax family planning policy, postpone the retirement age, improvement of education and training, tax cut, and improvement of TFP) could reach to 1-2 percentage points on average during 2016-2050.
    Keywords: potential growth rate, Demographic dividend, reform dividend, total factor productivity
    JEL: O47 J21 C53
    Date: 2015–04
  4. By: Adrian Cantemir CALIN (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy, Bucharest); Oana Cristina POPOVICI (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy, Bucharest)
    Abstract: In this paper, we assess the poverty state and the effectiveness of social transfers in Romania and in other three neighbouring countries (Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Croatia and Poland) as compared to the EU average with the aim to provide measures for improving the social protection system in our country. We find that Romania is the second country in the EU as regards the people at risk of poverty or social exclusion and has the lowest threshold for risk of poverty in the entire EU, of 103.33 euro per month. Unfortunately, the social transfers are not effective for solving the poverty problem and the spending on social assistances cannot be increased, as it represents already over one third of the revenues of the state budget.
    Keywords: poverty, social transfers, Romania, European Union
    JEL: C40 I31 I38
    Date: 2015–05
  5. By: Zhang, Ying; Li, Xiangwei; Zhang, Yutian
    Abstract: A series of case studies has been launched to better understand how to efficiently link employment objectives to budget allocations and expenditures. This Working Paper is the first of the series. The experience of China is interesting for three main reasons: the employment strategy promotes an employment-friendly economic development model; since 2002; a system to finance employment policies has been efficiently functioning; and the 2008 Employment Promotion Law established an employment fund with linkages to the national and local budgets. Fascinating lessons emerge from this experience.
    Keywords: promotion of employment, public finance, employment policy, national plan, regional plan, China, promotion de l'emploi, finances publiques, politique de l'emploi, plan national, plan régional, Chine, fomento del empleo, hacienda pública, política de empleo, plan nacional, plan regional, China
    Date: 2015
  6. By: Anthony T. Flegg (University of the West of England, Bristol); Yongming Huang (Wuhan University, Wuhan, China); Timo Tohmo (University of Jyväskylä, Jyväskylä, Finland)
    Abstract: Data for the Chinese province of Hubei are used to assess the performance of Kronenberg¡¦s CHARM, a method that takes explicit account of cross-hauling when constructing regional inputƒ{output tables. A key determinant of cross-hauling is held to be the heterogeneity of commodities, which is estimated using national data. However, contrary to the authors¡¦ findings for Finland, CHARM does not generate reliable estimates of Hubei¡¦s sectoral exports, imports and volume of trade, although it is more successful in estimating sectoral supply multipliers. The poor simulations of regional trade are attributed to the fact that Hubei is a relatively small region, where there is a large divergence between regional and national technology and pattern of final demand. The simulation errors are decomposed into components reflecting differences between regional and national technology, final demand and heterogeneity. The third component is found to be the least important of the three sources of error.
    Keywords: Regional input-output tables; Non-survey methods; CHARM; Cross-hauling; China
    Date: 2015–01–06
  7. By: Wenlang Zhang (CITIC Securities Company Limited); Gaofeng Han (Hong Kong Monetary Authority); Brian Ng (Hong Kong Monetary Authority); Steven Chan (Hong Kong Monetary Authority)
    Abstract: Our analysis based on firm-level data indicates that China¡¦s corporate sector does not appear to be over-leveraged in aggregate despite rapid credit growth following the global financial crisis. However, some industries, particularly real estate developers and firms in industries with substantial over-capacity, have continued to increase leverage. By ownership, it is mainly state-owned enterprises (SOEs) that have increased leverage, while private enterprises have deleveraged in recent years. Using a corporate finance model, our research shows that SOEs¡¦ leveraging has been mainly driven by implicit government support amid lower funding costs than private enterprises. If SOEs, particularly the real estate developers and firms in overcapacity industries, had borrowed without such support, their leverage would have been much lower. Moreover, some SOEs did not use credit obtained via formal financing channels to expand their businesses, but instead conducted credit intermediation. Leveraging driven by government support has resulted in a weakening in fund-use efficiency and a deterioration in corporate debt-servicing capacity. Meanwhile, non-financial corporate credit intermediation activities not only add risks to banks¡¦ asset quality but also mislead policy makers. Specifically, headline figures of credit expansion would overstate credit allocated to the real economy and understate credit allocated to the financial sector. Our analysis suggests that, if corporate credit intermediation activities are taken into account, the credit intermediation chain would be longer than indicated by the headline figures. This also suggests quantity indicators, such as credit growth, may have become less informative of China¡¦s monetary conditions.
    Date: 2015–04
  8. By: Christian Dreger; Jarko Fidrmuc; Konstantin Kholodilin; Dirk Ulbricht
    Abstract: The exchange rate fluctuations strongly affect the Russian economy, given its heavy dependence on foreign trade and investment. Since January 2014, the Ruble lost 50% of its value against the US Dollar. The fall of the currency started with the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The impact of the conflict on Russia may have been amplified by sanctions imposed by Western countries. However, as Russia is heavily dependent on exports of natural resources, the oil price decline starting in Summer 2014 could be another factor behind the deterioration. By using high frequency data on nominal exchange and interest rates, oil prices, actual and unanticipated sanctions, we provide evidence on the driving forces of the Ruble exchange rate. The analysis is based on cointegrated VAR models, where fundamental long-run relationships are implicitly embedded. The results indicate that the bulk of the depreciation can be related to the decline of oil prices. In addition, unanticipated sanctions matter for the conditional volatility of the variables involved.
    Keywords: Military conflict, sanctions, oil prices, Ruble depreciation
    JEL: C22 F31 F51
    Date: 2015
  9. By: Babashkin, Vladimir (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Department of Economics Russia)
    Abstract: Features of peasant studies methodology in application to the analysis of the evolution of agrarian relations in our country in the 60s - 90s of the past century, it is best to consider the example of smallholders perspective of Soviet/Russian rural workers, as this is an area of everyday life in which peasantry as the basic mental characteristics of a huge number of compatriots continued and continues to be maintained well. And these features, as I have repeatedly emphasized in the publications of previous years, differs the theoretical approach to the study of the problems of social life of both variations on the theme of progress greatly - scientific Soviet communism and Western anti-communism, market progressivism both.
    Keywords: peasant studies methodology, personal subsidiary farms
    Date: 2015–05
  10. By: Tiwari,Sailesh; Lara Ibarra,Gabriel; Narayan,Ambar
    Abstract: This paper attempts to determine the extent to which inequality in wage earnings in the Russian Federation is unfair. Unlike other similar attempts that can, at best, produce a lower bound on the estimate of the share of inequality that is unfair, this paper exploits the longitudinal nature of the data to come up with a lower bound as well as an upper bound. The upper bound is further refined to take into account the indirect effect of circumstances at birth (gender, parental wealth, etc.) on effort. Results show that the upper bound on the inequality of opportunity may be three to four times the measured lower bound and significantly higher for females than males in the sample. Finally, comparison with the United States and Germany show that although total inequality is lower in Russia, the share of unfair inequality is distinctly larger. The markedly large explanatory role of extraneous factors, such as gender and parental characteristics, in wage inequality calls for a close examination of governments? efforts to address inequities in the labor market.
    Keywords: Gender and Law,Equity and Development,Gender and Development,Inequality,Poverty Impact Evaluation
    Date: 2015–06–03
  11. By: Yuzhakov, Vladimir (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Dobrolyubova, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Alexandrov, Oleg (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Klochkova, E (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: In the paper the authors presented the following: estimation of the number and the staff of the civil servants and its dynamics in 2004-2013; suggestions to optimize the size and staffing of the public service, assessment of the impact of proposals on the effectiveness of the public service, as well as the level of expenditures of the federal budget and budgets of subjects of the Russian Federation.
    Keywords: civil servants, public service, expenditures, federal budget, budgets of subjects of the Russian Federation
    Date: 2015–05
  12. By: Cristina LINCARU (INCSMPS - National Research Institute for Labour and Social Protection); Vasilica CIUCA (INCSMPS - National Research Institute for Labour and Social Protection); Draga ATANASIU (INCSMPS - National Research Institute for Labour and Social Protection)
    Abstract: Integrating spatial socioeconomic variables gives a new perspective of analysis. The employment growth and fight against the unemployment policies implementing practice revealed an shielded limit of comparability given by the population mean indicator. Among the core indicators of labour market is recorded the registered unemployment. Literature revealed that reporting of this indicator only at county level (NUTS 3) is not sufficient differences induced by space features are significant. Based on statistical data provided by INS - TEMPO we propose a method to identify the trend of clustering of the number of registered unemployed persons at the lowest territorial administrative level - that registered unemployment persons at territorial administrative unit level - UAT2. The method is based on Global spatial autocorrelation measured by Moran's I in GeoDa based on Anselin (1995, 1996). The tendency of overall clustering of registered unemployment during the period January 2010 - June 2014, is evidenced by analyzing time series of Moran index. The main result of this article is the development of a temporal and spatial analysis methods applied for the registered unemployment to the smallest territorial administrative level.
    Keywords: spatial integration, spatial autocorrelation, clustering, unemployment
    JEL: R23 J64
    Date: 2015–05
  13. By: Tatiana COLESNICOVA (Institutul Național de Cercetări Economice, Academia de Stiinte a Moldovei)
    Abstract: The influence of employment on the welfare of social inequality in the Republic of Moldova is analyzed in the paper. At the present stage of the Moldovan society development it is important to assess the impact of various factors on the inequality of consumer spending households in the country, which will allow developing the most effective measures for the modernization of economic and social policies. One of the major factors for reducing inequality and existence of the economic welfare in society is the possibility of people to be to be involved in the productive labor. Thus, being employed, the household members directly influence on the household’s revenue and exert a significant impact on livelihoods, both in rural and urban areas.
    Keywords: employment, unemployment, welfare, social inequality, labor force, members of households, quintile groups.
    JEL: J64
    Date: 2015–05
  14. By: Dorina CLICHICI (Institutul Naţional de Cercetări Economice al AŞM, str. Ion Creangă 45, Chişinău, MD -2064, Republica Moldova)
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to analyze the implications of corporate governance on the stability of the banking system of the Republic of Moldova, by highlighting corporate governance challenges and destabilizing effects of weak corporate governance structures within financial institutions (mainly the banking sector). Important financial intermediation role of banking institutions in the economy, their high degree of sensitivity to potential difficulties arising from ineffective corporate governance and the need to protect the interests of depositors and investors, requires that corporate governance for these institutions represent a particular interest in order to maintain stability of the financial sector. Despite some progress in addressing the recommendations of IMF and the satisfactory reported performance of banks, there are serious governance problems in several banks including the largest ones. Corporate governance deficiencies in banks still are the major risk to systemic financial stability in Republic of Moldova and the ability of the regulators to take action remains constrained.
    Keywords: corporate governance, banking sector, financial stability
    JEL: G21 G32
    Date: 2015–05
  15. By: Amadou Boly
    Abstract: Based on a unique panel dataset consisting of both formal and informal firms surveyed every other year from 2005 to 2013, this paper explores the benefits of formalization to the government and firm employees in Vietnam. We find that formalization benefits the government by increasing the amount and the likelihood of tax payments. Formalization also increases the wage level paid by firms that shift out of the informal sector, as well as the share of wages in value added. Our results are therefore supportive of governments. efforts to reduce the size of the informal sector by promoting formalization.
    Keywords: Income, Informal sector (Economics), Tax evasion, Taxation, Wages
    Date: 2015
  16. By: Piotr Lewandowski; Kamil Stronski; Roma Keister
    Abstract: In this paper we apply the cohort model of the pension scheme to analyse the impact of labour market segmentation, in particular the use of contracts on mandate, on expected retirement benefits in Poland. Heterogeneity of labour force and impact of differences in years of employment, contributions paid and account indexation are taken into consideration. The effects of policy instruments aimed at increasing the stream of contributions paid by workers with contracts of mandate are evaluated. We find that the expected retirement benefit in the segment of contracts of mandate is lower by 17% than in the segment of employment contracts. The major cause of this gap between segments are lower contributions in the case of men and shorter life-cycle employment in the case of women. The obligation to pay contributions on all contracts of mandate from the minimum wage level will enable closing the pension gap by ca. 4.4 pp. unless the obligation increases unemployment risk in the segment of contracts of mandate. Additional saving of 2% of the gross wage during spells of work on contract of mandate reduces the gap by less than 1 pp.
    Keywords: labour market segmentation, pensions, defined-contribution pension scheme
    JEL: J26 J32 J68
    Date: 2015–06
  17. By: Michael, Bryane; Wojick, Dariusz; Arner, Douglas W.; Tong, Wilson; Lin, Chen; Zhou, Simon
    Abstract: Roughly 60% of all publically announced advisors to China’s “Going Out” M&A transactions from 2000 to 2014 were from international financial centres (representing over 70% of deal value). Why did advisors, located so far away from both acquirer and target, manage to dominate the M&A advisory market in the early stages of the “Going Out” policy? What can we learn from the smaller advisors located outside of these financial centres who managed to capture a growing share of this business in “Going Out’s” more recent stages? In this paper, we hypothesize the existence of a “legal complexity externality” that had the effect of increasing a financial centre’s ability to attract international business. We look at the way Going Out advisors have responded to advisory opportunities using what management theorists call “blue ocean strategy.” We show that relationships across geography changed, as large global advisors lost their share of advisory business to advisors outside of international financial centres due to the interplay of these legal complexity externalities and blue ocean strategies. As cities helps foster changes in the law governing Going Out transactions – and as financial and legal advisors adapted their strategies to compete – cities gained or lost Going Out business. We provide 5 recommendations to existing and aspiring international financial centres looking to capture a larger share of global M&A and other investment advisory business.
    Keywords: law schools,international financial centre,mergers and aquisitions,Going Out Policy,legal complexity externality,professional services
    JEL: K40 G34
    Date: 2015
  18. By: Adrian Cantemir CALIN (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy, Bucharest); Oana Cristina POPOVICI (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy, Bucharest)
    Abstract: The young people unemployment rate is critical at both the EU level and in Romania at the actual moment. The main cause of this situation is considered to be the inadequacy of the educational system at the requirements of the labour market. In this respect, we conduct a survey among the Romanian students in economic sciences on the ease of finding jobs. The results support this idea. The students consider that the information received in universities will not be of great help in conducting their activity as employee, and the period of training is deemed necessary.
    Keywords: youth unemployment rate, survey, Romania, European Union
    JEL: C83 J21 J64
    Date: 2015–05
  19. By: Gabriela Tudose (INCSMPS, Bucuresti, Romania); Daniela Paşnicu (Spiru Haret, Bucuresti, Romania); Cătălin Ghinăraru (INCSMPS, Bucuresti, Romania); Adriana Ana Maria Davidescu (INCSMPS, Bucuresti, Romania)
    Abstract: In the EU-28, employment and unemployment among the elderly have experienced changes in the period 2002-2013, which differs significantly from country to country. These changes were mainly due to acute financial crisis. The paper draw a statistical analysis of active aging, active performance measures applied to the 6 member states of the European Union and Romania reflected in labor market outcomes. It was intended to highlight key issues related to the elderly population situation in Romania in conjunction with key labor market indicators and economic development. The paper concludes with a set of conclusions related to the effectiveness of older people employment activation on the labor market in Romania. Analyses undertaken in this paper illustrate that the employment and unemployment among older people continue to pose problems in the labor market in Romania. In the period 2005-2013, in Romania, the employment gap related to the average of EU-28 increased, while the unemployment shows consistently lower values than the European average for over 55 years. Although strategic goals adaptation kept pace with Europe, the implementation of measures to realize the general policies in order to increase employment of the elderly in Romania didn't show diversity and noticed no substantial financial allocation thereof.
    Keywords: elderly employment, elderly unemployment, active ageing policies, salary subsidies, European strategic objectives, employment regulation, employment agency.Length: 7 pages
    JEL: J6 J08 J01
    Date: 2015–05

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