nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2015‒05‒30
twenty-two papers chosen by
J. David Brown
United States Census Bureau

  1. Russia's current economic conundrum By Kucera, Jakub
  2. Open Economy, Global Value Chain and Corporate Social Responsibility in China By Peng, Fei; Huang, Wei; Kang, Lili
  3. The Impact of Macroeconomic News on Polish and Czech Government Bond Markets By Vaclav Hausenblas; Vojtech Pistora
  4. Economic concentration and finance: Evidence from Russian regions By Hattendorff , Christian
  5. Global Value Chains and China's Exports to High Income Countries By Yuqing Xing; Yothin Jinjarak
  6. Who Is More Mobile in Response to Local Demand Shifts in China? By Luo, Dongdong; Xing, Chunbing
  7. Agricultural reforms and bridging the gap for rural China By Ben Westmore
  8. How Rich Will China Become? By Yi, Kei-Mu; Jiang, Jingyi
  9. Politicians' promotion incentives and bank risk exposure in China By Wang, Li; Menkhoff, Lukas; Schröder, Michael; Xu, Xian
  10. A Snapshot of China's Service Sector By Margit Molnar; Wei Wang
  11. Providing the right skills to all in China: From “made in China” to “created in China” By Margit Molnar; Vincent Koen
  12. Recent trends in productivity in China: shift-share analysis of labour productivity growth and the evolution of the productivity gap By Margit Molnar; Thomas Chalaux
  13. Assessing China's skills gap and inequalities in education By Margit Molnar; Boqing Wang; Ruidong Gao
  14. The Marginal Abatement Cost of Carbon Emissions in China By Ma, Chunbo; Hailu, Atakelty
  15. The binding constraint on growth in less developed Western Balkan countries By Gabrisch, Hubert
  16. Quantifying the Value of Preferential Trade in Russia and CIS By Taganov, Boris
  17. Liberalization of trade flows under TTIP from a small country perspective. The case of Poland By Jan Hagemejer
  18. Shallow determinants of growth of Polish regions. Empirical analysis with panel data methods By Tomasz Brodzicki
  19. Talent workers as entrepreneurs: a new approach to aspirational self-employment By Joanna Tyrowicz; Barbara Liberda; Magdalena Smyk
  20. Policy Options for Economic Growth and Competitiveness of Kosovo By Mario Holzner
  21. EDUCATION DEVELOPMENT IN UZBEKISTAN By B. Nazarova; S.Saidkarimova; Sh. Obloqulova

  1. By: Kucera, Jakub
    Abstract: This paper provides a concise overview of Russia's economy. First, it describes the growth model of the past fifteen years and explains why that model is now exhausted. Secondly, it examines the reaction of the country´s leadership to the stagnating economy. Finally, to evaluate the feasibility of any reform programme, the paper pinpoints the biggest economic problems currently facing Russia with an overview of the main questions relating to Russian modernization. The main problems examined will be those that the Russian economy faced before the current crisis, as these can still be considered fundamental and, as we will see, were actually causing considerable concern even before sanctions were imposed during the Ukrainian crisis and before the current economic crisis began.
    Keywords: Russia; economy; stagnation; crisis; problems; modernization
    JEL: E22 E24 E61 E66 F32 Q43
    Date: 2015–04–17
  2. By: Peng, Fei; Huang, Wei; Kang, Lili
    Abstract: Using a survey of 1,266 firms in 12 cities in China, this paper investigates the effects of open economy on the corporate social responsibility (CSR) of Chinese domestic firms embedded in the global value chain (GVC). We argue that, under a compliance-based paradigm, foreign domestic investment (FDI) and export not necessarily improve the CSR performance of Chinese firms. The cascade with foreign owned enterprises in the local value chain and CSR pressure from the GVC have important intervening impact on Chinese domestic firms’ CSR performance. The CSR performance improves in the domestic firms with foreign clients in the local value chain and under labor and environmental standards pressure from the GVC. There is no prominent improvement of CSR performance in domestic firms only with foreign suppliers in the local value chain. Regressions using the structural equation models show that the FDI has significant direct effect on working overtime and the social security coverage, while the export has no significant direct effect on CSR performance. However, export has significant indirect effect on improvement of the green investment and environment training through the cascade with foreign owned enterprises in the local value chain and pressure from the GVC.
    Keywords: Labor; Environment; Global Value Chain; Corporate Social Responsibility
    JEL: F23 M14
    Date: 2015–05
  3. By: Vaclav Hausenblas (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nábreží 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic; Czech National Bank, Na Prikope 28, 115 03 Prague 1, Czech Republic); Vojtech Pistora (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nábreží 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic)
    Abstract: We study the impact of news embedded in scheduled macroeconomic announcements on the government bond market in Poland and the Czech Republic. We conduct an event study on intraday data and time-series regressions using daily data over an eight-year period, distinguishing between effects under different stages of the business cycle. We find that the Polish government bonds prices respond to several domestic indicators in a manner consistent with research from mature markets: inflation considerations appear to dominate credit risk considerations. For the most part, impact of news is incorporated in prices during the first hour since the release time. We could find much fewer systematic patterns for the Czech government bond market where any response was delayed. In both countries, the impact of GDP was found to vary between different stages of the business cycle.
    Keywords: macroeconomic news, government bond market, intraday data, event study, GARCH, CEE
    JEL: C22 C82 G12
    Date: 2015–05
  4. By: Hattendorff , Christian (BOFIT)
    Abstract: The paper investigates the relationship between economic concentration and level of financial development to illuminate the linkage of real economy structure and financial markets. Using data from 81 Russian regions for the period 2005–2011, empirical evidence is offered to show that poor diversification weakens credit. Geographical variables are used as instruments of concentration in accounting for endogeneity. This work supports previous findings at the national level that policymakers seeking to promote economic development should place stronger emphasis on output diversification.
    Keywords: economic concentration; diversification; financial development; Russia
    JEL: E51 O11 R11
    Date: 2015–05–18
  5. By: Yuqing Xing (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies); Yothin Jinjarak (Victoria Business School)
    Abstract: In this paper we show that, global value chains (GVCs) have functioned as a vehicle for “Made in China” products to enter the international markets, in particular the markets of high income countries. We identify three major spillover effects of GVCs to Chinese firms participating GVCs: brands, distribution networks and lead firms’ technology innovations. By analyzing the tasks performed by Chinese firms and the domestic value added in processing high-tech exports and general processing exports, a subset of GVC activities, we argue that the competitiveness of “Made in China” products is largely due to foreign contents, which account for more than 50% value added of processing exports. GVC participation enables Chinese firms to bundle low skilled labor services with advanced technologies and globally recognized brands. Moreover, we investigate the cross-country pattern of processing exports and find the share of processing exports to high income countries is much higher than that to low-income countries. There exists a significantly positive correlation between the share of processing exports and the income of China’s trading partners, implying that processing trade is an effective means for “Made in China” products to enter high income countries. The cross-country heterogeneity of processing exports also indicates China captures relatively more value added in its exports to low income countries compared with exports to high income countries.
    Date: 2015–05
  6. By: Luo, Dongdong (Beijing Normal University); Xing, Chunbing (Beijing Normal University)
    Abstract: In this paper, we use two nationally representative datasets to examine the population adjustment of demographic groups in response to regional demand shifts between 2000 and 2005. Results from OLS regressions show that population changes of less educated groups are more associated with changes in total city working hours than population changes of educated groups. These findings explain increases in skill premia in coastal regions after China's entry into the WTO, but it does not mean that the former groups are more responsive to demand shocks, because changes in city working hours also reflect other forces such as supply shocks. Using an IV strategy, we find that educated workers are more responsive to demand shocks than those who are less educated. In addition, old subgroups are particularly inert in responding to demand shocks. Our results also suggest that China's household registration (Hukou) system prevents the mobility of urban residents more than it prevents the mobility of rural residents. We propose that Hukou reform should not only abolish the agricultural vs. non-agricultural division, but also change the decentralized (local vs. non-local) feature of the system.
    Keywords: local demand shift, population adjustment, Hukou
    JEL: J23 R23
    Date: 2015–05
  7. By: Ben Westmore
    Abstract: Urbanisation will continue in China, with the government planning to grant urban residential status to an additional 100 million rural workers by 2020. While this process is transforming the urban economy, the rural economy is also undergoing substantial structural change. Government policy settings in rural areas are critical for smoothing the transition and helping bridge the gap in living standards between urban and rural China. Reforms should further enable farmers who wish to continue working in the agricultural sector to raise productivity levels. Specific measures include encouraging land transfer, promoting further rural financial development and technical assistance for farmers. At the same time, obstacles should be removed for those rural residents aspiring to move to jobs in cities where their skills can yield a higher marginal product. For those who remain in rural areas, improved social welfare systems and investment in health services are critical. This Working Paper relates to the 2015 OECD Economic Survey of China<P>Mener des réformes agricoles et contribuer au rattrapage des zones rurales<BR>L'urbanisation va se poursuivre en Chine et les pouvoirs publics prévoient d'ailleurs d'accorder le statut de résident urbain à 100 millions de travailleurs ruraux supplémentaires d'ici 2020. Si ce processus a pour effet de transformer l'économie urbaine, l'économie rurale connaît également des changements structurels importants. Dans les zones rurales, les paramètres de l'action publique jouent un rôle clé pour faciliter la transition et contribuer au rattrapage des niveaux de vie entre les villes et les campagnes chinoises Des réformes devraient être mise en oeuvre pour continuer d'aider les agriculteurs qui souhaitent poursuivre leur activité à relever les niveaux de productivité. Encourager la mutation foncière, favoriser la poursuite du développement financier en zone rurale et apporter une assistance technique aux agriculteurs figurent au nombre des mesures à prendre à cet égard. Parallèlement, il faudrait lever les obstacles à la migration des résidents ruraux qui souhaitent occuper un emploi dans les zones urbaines où leurs compétences peuvent assurer un rendement plus élevé. Pour ceux qui restent dans les zones rurales, il est essentiel d'améliorer les systèmes de protection sociale et de développer l'investissement dans les services de santé. Ce Document de travail a trait à létude de la Chine, 2015 que-chine.htm
    Keywords: China, agricultural reform, urbanisation, rural development, social welfare, réforme agricole, Développement rural, urbanisation, protection sociale, Chine
    JEL: H53 I15 O13 O18 O53 Q16
    Date: 2015–05–22
  8. By: Yi, Kei-Mu (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis); Jiang, Jingyi (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)
    Abstract: China’s impressive economic growth since the 1980s raises the question of how much richer it will become over future decades. Its growing share of the world economy affects other national economies. Understanding the future course of the Chinese economy is therefore important for both fiscal and monetary policymaking in the United States and elsewhere. Using fundamental growth theory, data from China and from Korea and Japan’s similar “miracle” growth experiences, we provide a suggestive calculation for China’s future per capita income. Our ballpark estimate is that China’s per capita income relative to that of the United States will grow by a factor of two to three over the next half-century.
    Date: 2015–05–20
  9. By: Wang, Li; Menkhoff, Lukas; Schröder, Michael; Xu, Xian
    Abstract: This paper shows that politicians' pressure to climb the career ladder increases bank risk exposure in their region. Chinese local politicians are set growth targets in their region that are relative to each other. Growth is stimulated by debt-financed programs which are mainly financed via bank loans. The stronger the performance incentive the riskier the respective local bank exposure becomes. This effect holds primarily for local banks which are under a certain degree of control of local politicians and it has increased with the release of recent stimulus packages requiring local co-financing.
    Keywords: Bank Lending,Bank Risk Exposure,Local Politicians,Promotion Incentives
    JEL: G21 G23 H74
    Date: 2015
  10. By: Margit Molnar; Wei Wang
    Abstract: The share of the tertiary sector in China’s value added has increased steadily, overtaking the share of the secondary sector in 2013. With increasing incomes, the share of services is expected to grow further as at higher incomes a larger share of income is spent on services. In addition to final demand, intermediate demand can be another driving force for service industries. As liberalisation leads to a greater role for the market in allocating resources, service industries are expected to become more competitive and therefore it may become cheaper to outsource services than to produce them in-house. Liberalisation will likely also lead to greater specialisation to remain competitive, thereby making specialised services available for outsourcing. This will likely spur the development of some high value-added logistics services such as warehousing or order handling. By the same token, professional services such as accounting or engineering are also likely to benefit from a greater reliance on the market and greater competition. In the envisaged transition from “made in China” to “created in China”, the service sector is expected to play a prominent role. To that end, the service sector is gradually being provided a more even playing field as privileges for manufacturing industries are being withdrawn and a more equal treatment of producers across sectors is being adopted. This paper provides a snapshot of the service sector, its size, the ownership of its firms, and productivity across types of firms depending on ownership, sector, age, size and geographical region. This Working Paper relates to the 2015 OECD Economic Survey of China<P>Un état des lieux du secteur des services en Chine<BR>La part du secteur tertiaire dans la valeur ajoutée de la Chine n’a cessé de croître pour dépasser celle du secteur secondaire, en 2013. Compte tenu de l’augmentation des revenus, la part des services devrait continuer de progresser car plus le revenu est élevé, plus les dépenses consacrées aux services augmentent. Outre la demande finale, la consommation intermédiaire devrait constituer un autre facteur de consommation à la hausse de services. Les mesures de libéralisation laissant un plus grand rôle au marché dans l’allocation des ressources, le secteur des services devrait gagner en compétitivité et c’est pourquoi leur externalisation pourrait désormais coûter moins cher que leur production en interne. Pour préserver la compétitivité, la libéralisation entraînera également une plus grande spécialisation et des services spécialisés s’offriront ainsi à l’externalisation. Le développement de certains services logistiques à forte valeur ajoutée, comme la gestion d’entrepôts ou de commandes, devrait s’en trouver très certainement stimulé. De même, il est probable que les services de professions spécialisées comme la comptabilité et l’ingénierie bénéficieront eux aussi d’un plus large recours aux mécanismes du marché et d’une concurrence renforcée. Le secteur des services entend jouer un rôle de premier plan dans la future transition du « fabriqué en Chine » au « créé en Chine ». Dans cette optique, ce secteur voit s’instaurer peu à peu des règles de jeu plus égales, les industries manufacturières se voyant retirer certains de leurs privilèges et le principe d’égalité de traitement des producteurs entre les secteurs étant adopté. Ce document dresse un état de lieux du secteur des services et analyse sa taille, les structures de propriété de ses entreprises et la productivité de différents types d’entreprises en fonction de leur propriété, leur activité, leur ancienneté, leur taille et leur région. Ce document de travail se rapporte à l’Étude économique de la Chine, OCDE, 2015 que-chine.htm.
    Keywords: transport, China, labour productivity, state-owned enterprises, professional services, regulation, distribution, logistics, firm-level analysis, services, services, transport, entreprise publique, analyse microéconomique, services professionnels, logistique, réglementation, Chine, distribution, productivité du travail
    JEL: J24 L11 L50 L80 L81 L84 L90
    Date: 2015–05–22
  11. By: Margit Molnar; Vincent Koen
    Abstract: China has made impressive strides in education in recent decades, even though the accumulation of human capital has lagged behind that of physical capital. Going forward, access to and quality of education will be key to sustain economic convergence with the most advanced economies and to offset the drag exerted by population ageing. This will require addressing a number of problems. Access to pre-school education is still far from universal. Migrants’ children as well as rural and poor families are still at a major disadvantage at every step of the education ladder. The focus on rote learning and exams remains excessive. More bridges are needed between vocational and general education. Graduating students often struggle to find a job matching their expectations and employers do not always find the requisite skills. Despite a soaring number of Chinese patents, the quality of most patents is still low and innovation output is weak. Reforms are underway to address these problems but further progress is needed in various areas against the backdrop of rapidly evolving market demands and the development of the knowledge economy. Among the priorities are more and better oriented funding of education, giving greater opportunities to children with a socio-economic or physical disadvantage, reducing the role of after-school tutoring, focusing less on memorisation and more on creativity, enhancing the appeal of the teaching profession, improving students’ information on labour market prospects, developing workplace training, making greater use of online education potential, and more effectively nurturing research and innovation. This Working Paper relates to the 2015 OECD Economic Survey of China<P>Donner à tous des compétences adéquates en Chine : Du “fabriqué en Chine” au “créé en Chine”<BR>La Chine a fait ces dernières décennies des progrès impressionnants dans le domaine de l’éducation, même si l’accumulation de capital humain y a été moins rapide que l’accumulation de capital physique. À l’avenir, l’accès à l’éducation et la qualité de celle-ci seront déterminants pour favoriser la convergence économique avec les économies les plus avancées et compenser l’effet du vieillissement de la population. Il faudra pour cela s’atteler à la résolution d’un certain nombre de problèmes. Ainsi, l’accès à l’éducation préscolaire est encore loin d’être universel. À tous les échelons du système éducatif, les enfants de migrants, ainsi que les familles pauvres ou vivant en milieu rural, restent très désavantagés. L'importance donnée à l'apprentissage par coeur et aux examens reste excessive. Il faudrait aussi instaurer des passerelles plus nombreuses entre la formation professionnelle et l'enseignement général. Les étudiants diplômés ont souvent du mal à trouver un emploi correspondant à leurs attentes et les employeurs, pour leur part, ne trouvent pas toujours des candidats ayant les compétences requises. Malgré l'explosion du nombre des brevets chinois, la qualité de la majorité d'entre eux reste faible et les résultats en matière d'innovation sont modestes. Des réformes sont en cours pour s'attaquer à ces problèmes, mais les progrès doivent se poursuivre dans divers domaines, dans un contexte marqué par l'évolution rapide des exigences des marchés et le développement de l'économie de la connaissance. Les mesures à prendre en priorité doivent viser à mieux cibler et à accroître le financement de l'éducation, donner des chances plus importantes aux enfants issus de milieux socio-économiques défavorisés ou handicapés, réduire le rôle du soutien périscolaire, mettre moins l'accent sur la mémorisation et miser davantage sur la créativité, rendre la profession d'enseignant plus attrayante, améliorer l'information des étudiants sur les perspectives offertes par le marché du travail, développer la formation en entreprise, exploiter davantage les possibilités offertes par l'éducation en ligne, et promouvoir de manière plus efficace la recherche et l'innovation. Ce Document de travail a trait à l’Étude économique de l’OCDE de la Chine, 2015 que-chine.htm
    Keywords: human capital, education, innovation, China, vocational training, education inequalities, skill mismatch, migrant children, enfants de migrants, capital humain, formation professionnelle, Chine, inadéquation des compétences, inégalités d'éducation, innovation, éducation
    JEL: H52 I00 I20 I21 I22 I23 I24 I25 I28 J24 O O30 O31
    Date: 2015–05–22
  12. By: Margit Molnar; Thomas Chalaux
    Abstract: The Chinese economy has been undergoing fundamental structural changes since the start of reforms in 1978. An increasing number of farmers first got engaged in off-farm activities and then started to migrate to cities in the 1990s in search of jobs. Such movement of labour from less to more productive jobs boosted overall labour productivity and growth. Agglomeration and scale economies further pushed up productivity. While the productivity gains from internal migration will diminish gradually over time, urbanisation is likely to remain an important source of productivity growth in the coming decade or so. This paper first decomposes labour productivity growth over 2000-11 into a within-industry, a shift and a cross effect in a number of countries and compares China with other countries over this period. This shift-share analysis also allows a comparison of within-sector productivity gains across a large number of sectors and countries. Labour productivity alongside total factor productivity is also discussed from the perspective of its gap with the United States and growth rate over 2000-11 and in comparison with other BRIICS economies. In this analysis, manufacturing and service industries are looked at separately. This Working Paper relates to the 2015 OECD Economic Survey of China<P>Évolution récente de la productivité en Chine : analyse structurelle-résiduelle des gains de productivité du travail et évolution de l'écart de productivité<BR>L’économie chinoise connaît des mutations structurelles majeures depuis le début du processus de réforme, en 1978. Un nombre croissant d’exploitants agricoles commencèrent à cette époque à exercer une activité en dehors de leur exploitation, puis migrèrent vers les villes dans les années 90, à la recherche d’un travail. De tels mouvements de main-d’oeuvre, quittant des emplois peu productifs pour des emplois qui l’étaient davantage, ont stimulé la productivité globale du travail et la croissance. Les économies d’agglomération et d’échelle ont constitué à leur tour une nouvelle source de gains de productivité. Si les gains liés aux migrations intérieures vont diminuer au fil du temps, l’urbanisation va probablement demeurer une source majeure d’amélioration de la productivité dans la décennie à venir. Ce document de travail décompose les gains de productivité pour la période 2000-11 en fonction de l’effet intrasectoriel, des variations de parts et de l’effet transversal, et compare la Chine à d’autres pays pour la même période. Cette analyse structurelle-résiduelle permet également de comparer la composante intrasectorielle des gains de productivité sur un grand nombre de secteurs et de pays. La productivité de la main-d’oeuvre et la productivité globale des facteurs sont également analysées du point de vue de leur écart avec les États-Unis et du taux de croissance entre 2000 et 2011, et en comparaison avec d’autres pays BRIICS. L’industrie et les services sont considérés séparément dans cette analyse. Ce document de travail se rapporte à l’Étude économique de la Chine, OCDE, 2015 que-chine.htm
    Keywords: services, China, manufacturing, total factor productivity, labour productivity, BRIIC economies, productivity gap, pays BRIICS, écart de productivité, productivité globale des facteurs, productivité du travail, Chine, services, industrie
    JEL: D24 J24
    Date: 2015–05–22
  13. By: Margit Molnar; Boqing Wang; Ruidong Gao
    Abstract: In recent years, many tertiary graduates have had difficulties finding a job, while factories have been struggling to recruit workers. Notwithstanding rapidly increasing education attainment, graduates’ skills do not seem to match those demanded by the market. Moreover, structural changes in the economy aggravate the shortage of skills in newly emerging industries. While the problem is widely recognised, empirical studies of the issue are scarce and the skills gap has not been quantified. This paper aims at gaging the skills and knowledge gap of tertiary graduates of universities and vocational colleges across China. It also looks at the employment and wage prospects of graduates with different educational backgrounds. Inequalities in educational opportunities, stemming in particular from the urban-rural divide and to a lesser extent from the social background, shape careers and lives. The best primary and middle schools are located in the biggest cities and until recently children competed for a place at such schools. In third and fourth-tier cities or in rural areas, in contrast, there are fewer choices and thus less chance to get into a “model” high school or a top university. The family background also tends to have an impact on the choice of a school or profession and on future earnings. This paper discusses various aspects of inequalities related to the place of upbringing, family background and geographical area. Micro-level data analysis is complemented by an investigation into inequalities of various aspects of education at the city and county levels. This Working Paper relates to the 2015 OECD Economic Survey of China<P>Évaluation du déficit de qualifications en Chine et inégalités du système éducatif<BR>Depuis quelques années, de nombreux diplômés de l’enseignement supérieur éprouvent des difficultés à trouver un emploi tandis que les usines peinent à recruter de la main-d’oeuvre. En dépit d’un relèvement rapide des niveaux d’instruction, il ne semble pas que les qualifications des diplômés correspondent aux besoins du marché. Qui plus est, les mutations structurelles de l’économie aggravent le déficit de qualifications dans les industries nouvelles qui voient le jour. Si le problème est largement admis, les études empiriques sur le sujet ne sont pas légion et le déficit de qualifications n’a pas été quantifié. Ce document de travail a pour but d’évaluer le déficit de qualifications et de connaissances des diplômés des universités et des instituts professionnels de l’enseignement supérieur en Chine. Il examine également les perspectives d’emploi et de rémunération des diplômés issus de différentes filières de formation. Les vies et les carrières en Chine sont le reflet des inégalités d’accès au système éducatif, qui découlent notamment de la fracture entre les zones urbaines et rurales, mais aussi, dans une moindre mesure, de l’origine sociale. Les meilleurs établissements d’enseignement primaire et secondaire (collèges) se situent dans les plus grandes villes du pays et il y peu de temps encore, la concurrence était âpre pour s’y inscrire. En revanche, dans les villes de troisième et quatrième rangs, ou dans les zones rurales, l’offre est moins abondante et les chances d’intégrer un lycée « modèle » ou une université réputée sont d’autant plus réduites. Le milieu familial tend également à avoir un impact sur le choix d’une école ou d’une profession et sur la rémunération future. Ce document de travail examine ces inégalités sous l’angle du lieu d’éducation, de l’origine familiale et de la zone géographique des élèves. Un examen des inégalités de divers aspects du système éducatif, au niveau des villes et des comtés, complète l’analyse des micro-données. Ce document de travail se rapporte à l’Étude économique de la Chine, OCDE, 2015 que-chine.htm.
    Keywords: skills mismatch, vocational college, educational opportunity, family background, China, government spending, inequality, urban-rural divide, university graduates, fracture entre zones urbaines et rurales, inégalité, dépense publique, Chine, déficit de qualifications, diplômés des universités, instituts professionnels, accès au système éducatif, milieu familial
    JEL: H52 I23 I24 J24
    Date: 2015–05–22
  14. By: Ma, Chunbo; Hailu, Atakelty
    Abstract: There is an emerging literature estimating the marginal cost of carbon mitigation in China using distance function approaches; however, empirical estimates vary widely in magnitude and variation, which undermines support for policies to curb carbon emission. Applying three commonly used distance functions to China’s provincial data from 2001 to 2010, we show that the variability can be partially explained by the difference in the input/output coverage and whether the estimated marginal abatement cost (MAC) is conditional or unconditional. We also argue that the substantial heterogeneity in abatement cost estimates could be related to an economic interpretation that radial measures reflect the short-run MACs while non-radial measures reflect the long-run MACs. Our mean short-run MAC for carbon is 20 US$ per tonne, an amount that is very close to the carbon prices observed in China’s recently launched pilot markets.
    Keywords: Distance Functions, Marginal Abatement Cost, Carbon, China, Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, N55, Q32, Q52, Q54,
    Date: 2015–05–21
  15. By: Gabrisch, Hubert
    Abstract: Abstract The study applies an adjusted growth diagnostic approach to identify the actual binding constraint on financing growth in the West Balkan countries. This group of economies includes combined structural and systemic transformation problems. The results of the analysis indicate that the binding constraint on credit and investment growth in the region is the high and still increasing share of non-performing loans primarily in the private household sector due to policy failures. The analysis is performed in comparison with a group of advanced transition economies. Single-country and panel regressions indicate that demand side factors do not play a constraining role in the West Balkan countries but in the advanced transition economies.
    Keywords: Growth diagnostics, financing, non-performing loans, Western Balkans
    JEL: G21 G28 O1 O16
    Date: 2014–11–17
  16. By: Taganov, Boris
    Abstract: In this paper, we assess the value of Russia’s preferential imports from all trade partners and CIS countries in particular. Total value of preferential imports in Russia (both duty free imports as well as imports subject to the discounted MFN duty under GSP) is equal to ca 12% (37.8 USD bln.) of the total imports, of which ca 7.4% accounted for imports of Russia from CIS countries. We should note that ca 2.5% of preferential imports of Russia under GSP treatment was not imported duty free, but was subject to a 25% discount to MFN duty.
    Keywords: trade preferences, preferential trade agreement, MFN, GSP
    JEL: F13 F15
    Date: 2015
  17. By: Jan Hagemejer (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw; National Bank of Poland)
    Abstract: The empirical ex-ante evaluations of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership are similar on aggregate but suggest a large heterogeneity of the TTIP impact at the individual country level. We aim to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the possible TTIP effects for the economy of Poland using a computable general equilibrium model. In our simulation scenarios we use the estimates of NTBs that allow us to differentiate the impact of NTBs on trade of Poland, the remaining NMS aggregate, Germany, the largest trading partner of Poland and the rest of EU-15. We show that from a point of view of a small country, where most of international trade is concentrated on exchange with one or a few neighboring trading partners, such as Poland, simultaneous trade liberalization with a third partner will not bring sizeable gains to its economy. We observe US-EU15 trade expansion to be crowding out some of the trade in the most important Polish trading sectors, such as chemicals and motor vehicles. The unfavorable change in the terms of trade makes the gains from trade small while some sectors reduce output by a considerable amount.
    Keywords: TTIP, trade liberalization, computable general equilibrium, Poland
    JEL: F13 C68 D58
    Date: 2015
  18. By: Tomasz Brodzicki (Faculty of Economics, University of Gdansk)
    Abstract: We derive and then estimate an augmented growth model to identify major shallow determinants of development of Polish regions at NUTS-2 level of spatial disaggregation. Of particular interest to us is an attempt to assess the impact of investment in transport infrastructure and investment in human capital related to a large influx of Structural Funds after the accession in 2004 to European Union. We utilize various panel data techniques in order to reach the major conclusion. Most of results are in line with theoretical predictions. The obtained results are however sensitive to the introduction of spatial effects and their particular specifications. At regional level agglomeration effects are clear with metropolitan status of a region playing a significant role in development. Polycentric core-periphery model seems to suit the Polish framework conditions.
    Keywords: regional development, economic growth, panel data analysis
    JEL: O41 R10 R11 C23
    Date: 2015–05
  19. By: Joanna Tyrowicz (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw; National Bank of Poland); Barbara Liberda (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw; National Bank of Poland); Magdalena Smyk (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw)
    Abstract: What is necessary to make entrepreneurship sector successful? It seems like two key factors in this matter are quantity of financial capital and quality of human capital. So far, studies on innovative firms were rather focused on spending on resources, and not on qualification of people who are entering entrepreneurship sector. Using concept of so-called talent workers (Hsieh et al. 2013) we check who is entering self-employment in Poland. Our question is whether people who enter self-employment are more likely to create successful businesses. The analysis is based on the labor force survey panel data for Poland for over a decade between 2001 and 2013. We found that talent workers were more likely to become self-employed in this period. Results are robust on two possibly confounding effects – within sector mobility and productivity of workers before entering self-employment.
    Keywords: self-employment, talent, labor force mobility, wage employment
    JEL: J62 J24
    Date: 2015
  20. By: Mario Holzner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: Summary Kosovo growth dynamics are encouraging but the level of economic activity is very low. Mass unemployment hints at macro-imbalances. Net transfers from migrants are pivotal for covering the huge trade balance deficit, as manufacturing exports are almost non-existent. Wages are low but increasing well ahead of productivity. The lack of an exchange rate policy is a substantial impediment. Transport infrastructure is of average, weak Balkan quality and the energy infrastructure is dismal, even for Balkan standards. The good news is that fiscal space is abundant and overall external indebtedness low as well. Apart from various institutional reforms, conventional policy recommendations comprise mostly supply-side measures that are effective in the medium to long run. These are similar to some of the following actions suggested. Export capacities should be increased via FDI support and the solution of the Trepca mine status. An improvement in market access to neighbouring countries and the EU is of utmost importance. Modern cross-border transport (especially rail) and energy infrastructure should be upgraded. The planned new coal-fired electricity plant and the refurbishment of the old blocks together with a powerful air pollution filter system are of crucial importance. Energy diversification via the redevelopment of the gas network and the improvement of power lines is another goal. Secondary education, specifically vocational training including an apprenticeship system, should be developed. A set of un-conventional policy recommendations for the short to medium run has the potential to more quickly increase aggregate demand and improve social conditions. Circular migration flows and return-migration should be facilitated and incentive schemes for remittances to go into business activities should be developed. Given the present current account constrained growth model of Kosovo, tax increases should target those with the highest income elasticity of demand for imports and government expenditures should involve as few imports as possible. Tax progressivity could be expanded in the corporate and personal income and real estate taxes. Additional luxury taxes on high-end import goods should be applied. A nationwide municipality housing project would solve the housing shortage and employ low-skilled with a comparatively low income elasticity of demand for imports. Moreover, local building materials such as cement and bricks could be used. Area-wide public transport should also have the goal to offer jobs to the less skilled as well as to substitute widespread individual car imports. A network of vocational training centres, health care centres, cultural and sports facilities could support local production as well as human capital and job creation. A comprehensive incomes policy with a centralised wage bargaining system needs to keep the average wage level on a longer-term productivity (cum inflation) growth path.
    Keywords: economic growth, competitiveness, industrialisation, infrastructure, economic policy, Kosovo
    JEL: F43 O11 O14 O18 O20
    Date: 2015–05
  21. By: B. Nazarova; S.Saidkarimova; Sh. Obloqulova
    Abstract: The present level of scientific, technical and socio-economic development based on knowledge, determines the leading role of education in the renewal of all aspects of society.Education, among the factors influencing thefunctioning of the human potential, occupies a leading position.Radical reforms initiated in Uzbekistan, called for the creation of the education system that was adequate for socio-economic transformation of societyand the perspectives of its development.The concept of reforming education, developed in Uzbekistan, envisages the followings as the most important goals:the reorientation of the education systemonto market economy and open society; creation of equal opportunities foreducation as a condition for raising the standard of living; improvingthe system of financing education in order to provide a stable and qualified educational services and increase efficiency of resources utilization; improving the management of the education sector.The concept of public policy and the reform of education in Uzbekistan were embodied in the new Law “On Education” and the National Professional Training Program, adopted on August 29, 1997 by the Parliament of the Republic of Uzbekistan. Key words: education, development, uzbekistan
    Date: 2015–03
  22. By: Toshmurodova Buvsara
    Abstract: Uzbekistan being one of the rapidly growing countries in Central Asia is characterized as emerging economy. Nowadays, Uzbekistan Government encourages entrepreneurs/companies to manufacture high value added products and become competitive players in global market. Thus, Uzbekistan needs to develop and improve contemporary management systems; including financial management. This article includes interesting information about the history of development of financial management in Uzbekistan. Author tried to describe improvement trends of financial management system in Uzbekistan by using theoretical and scientific analysis. There were written some key issues for development of financial management systems. Author approached to financial management as a system which plays a vital role in development of the whole organization. There was explained financial management domain. It’s notable that information system issues of financial management were also described. Paper shows the basic results of research aiming to investigate financial management issues in Uzbekistan. Availability of two things – systematic approach and principle of system is characterized as main condition to develop financial management systems. Key words: financial management, financial data, financial resources
    Date: 2014–12

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