nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2015‒04‒11
forty papers chosen by
J. David Brown
United States Census Bureau

  1. The cleansing effect of minimum wages. Minimum wages, firm dynamics and aggregate productivity in China By MAYNERIS, Florian; PONCET, Sandra; ZHANG, Tao
  2. Maintaining Financial Stability in the People's Republic of China during Financial Liberalization By Nicholas Borst; Nicholas Lardy
  3. The Transformation of the Clothing Industry in China By Miao ZHANG; Xin Xin KONG; Santha Chenayah RAMU
  4. Product quality and intra-industry trade By Ito, Tadashi; Okubo, Toshihiro
  5. Nowcasting unemployment rates with Google searches: Evidence from the Visegrad Group countries By Pavlicek, Jaroslav; Kristoufek, Ladislav
  6. A structural investigation of the Chinese economy with a hybrid monetary policy rule By Ran Li; Jiao Wang
  7. A closer look at the diffusion of ChinaGAP By Lei, Lei
  8. Estimating informal economy share in Russian regions By Vorobyev Pavel
  9. Business Creation and Transformation Processes in Four Software Companies in Dalian, China: Commonalities and Differences By Zhang Yan; Kawabata Nozomu
  10. Industrial Upgrading in Global Production Networks: The Case of the Chinese Automotive Industry By Yansheng LI; Xin Xin KONG; Miao ZHANG
  11. From confrontation to cooperation – institutional support in building cooperation of Polish enterprises By Joanna Bednarz; Magdalena Markiewicz
  12. Space Policy Strategies and Priorities in Russia By Anastasia Edelkina; Oleg Karasev; Natalia Velikanova
  13. The voices and protests of China's labour NGOs and their effort to promote migrant worker rights By Yamaguchi, Mami
  14. Executive Stock Option Pricing in China under Stochastic Volatility By Chong, Terence Tai Leung; Ding, Yue; Li, Yong
  15. Evaluation of the meat industry efficiency in Poland, in the years 2000-2013 (based on the data of the Central Statistical Office) By Lyubov Andrushko
  16. China's Semiconductor Industry in Global Value Chains By Xin Xin KONG; Miao ZHANG; Santha Chenayah RAMU
  17. Carbon Emissions Trading in China: The Evolution from Pilots to a Nationwide Scheme By ZhongXiang Zhang
  18. L’usine du monde au ralenti ou le changement de régime du commerce extérieur chinois By Françoise Lemoine; Sandra Poncet; Deniz Ünal; Clément Cassé
  19. Fiscal Decentralization, Equalization, and Intra-Provincial Inequality in China By Yongzheng Liu; Jorge Martinez-Vazquez; Alfred M. Wu
  20. Exploring the Geography of China's Airport Networks during 1980s-2000s: A Hybrid Complex-Network Approach By Zhengbin Dong; Wenjie Wu
  21. Making Democracy Work: Culture, Social Capital and Elections in China By Gerard Padró i Miquel; Nancy Qian; Yiqing Xu; Yang Yao
  22. Discovering the Miracle of Large Numbers of Antitrust Investigations in Russia: The Role of Competition Authority Incentives By Svetlana Avdasheva; Dina Tsytsulina; Svetlana Golovanova; Yelena Sidorova
  23. Tax evasion through trade intermediation : evidence from Chinese exporters By Liu,Xuepeng; Shi,Huimin; Ferrantino,Michael Joseph
  24. Water Resources – an Analysis of Trends, Weak Siglans and Wild Cards with Implications for Russia By Ozcan Saritas; Liliana N. Proskuryakova; E. Kyzyngasheva
  25. The Making of an Economic Superpower―Unlocking China’s Secret of Rapid Industrialization By Wen, Yi
  26. A 5-sector DSGE model of Russia By Sergey Ivashchenko
  27. Firm efficiency and Input market integration Trade versus FDI By Michele Imbruno
  28. Income tax exemption as a regional state aid in special economic zones and its impact upon development of Polish districts By Adam A. Ambroziak
  29. The evaluation of economic development index: theory and research By Jadvyga Ciburiene
  30. Determinants of export performance of Ukrainian firms By Andrzej Cieslik; Jan Michalek; Iryna Nasadiuk
  31. The impact of European integration on institutional development By Schönfelder, Nina; Wagner, Helmut
  32. Host-site institutions, Regional Production Linkages and Technological Upgrading: A Study of Automotive Firms in Vietnam By NGUYEN Dinh Chuc; NGUYEN Dinh Anh; NGUYEN Ha Trang; NGUYEN Ngoc Minh
  33. Offshoring sector in Poland By Budzyñska Katarzyna
  34. Export specialisation and regional growth, in Romania By Antonescu, Daniela
  35. Multidimensional poverty measurement with individual preferences By Decancq, Koen; Fleurbeay, Marc; Maniquet, François
  36. A quarter century of economic reforms in Ukraine: too late, too slow, too little / Æwieræ wieku ukraiñskich reform: za ma³o, za póŸno i zbyt wolno By Oleh Havrylyshyn
  37. Estimation of export specialization: Lithuanian case By Dalia Bernatonyte
  38. Are indebted households poorer? Evidence from Slovakia By Tibor Zavadil; Teresa Messner
  39. Introduction of an Income Contingent Repayment Scheme for Non-Performing Mortgage Loans - Lessons from Hungary’s Case By Edina Berlinger; György Walter
  40. Why Growth in Emerging Economies Is Likely to Fall By Anders Aslund

  1. By: MAYNERIS, Florian (Université catholique de Louvain, CORE & IRES, Belgium); PONCET, Sandra (Paris School of Economics (University of Paris 1), CEPII and FERDI); ZHANG, Tao (Shangai University of International Business and Economics)
    Abstract: We here consider how Chinese firms adjust to higher minimum wages and how these affect aggregate productivity, exploiting the 2004 minimum-wage reform in China. We find that higher city-level minimum wages reduced the survival probability of firms which were the most exposed to the reform. For the surviving firms, thanks to significant productivity gains, wage costs rose without any negative employment effect. At the city-level, our results show that higher minimum wages affected aggregate productivity growth via both productivity growth in incumbent firms and the net entry of more productive firms. Hence, in a fast-growing economy like China, there is a cleansing effect of labor-market standards.
    Keywords: minimum wages, firm-level performance, aggregate TFP, China
    JEL: O14 J38 O47
    Date: 2014–11–05
  2. By: Nicholas Borst (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco); Nicholas Lardy (Peterson Institute for International Economics)
    Abstract: The banking system of the People's Republic of China (PRC) is now the largest in the world, and its capital markets are rapidly approaching the size of those in the advanced economies. This paper traces the evolution of the PRC's financial system away from a traditional bank-dominated and state-directed financial system toward a more complex, market-based system and analyzes the optimal sequence of financial reforms needed to manage the new risks accompanying this evolution.
    Keywords: financial development, government policy and regulation
    JEL: G18 G21
    Date: 2015–03
  3. By: Miao ZHANG (Department of Development Studies, University of Malaya); Xin Xin KONG (Chinese Academy of Science and Technology for Development); Santha Chenayah RAMU (Department of Economics, University of Malaya)
    Abstract: This article examines the transformation of clothing manufacturing in China with a focus on institutional support, technological upgrading and global production chains. The evidence shows that reforms and integration into global production chains has rapidly expanded China’s exports but it has also driven the relocation abroad of Chinese clothing firms. Global integration has motivated clothing firms to upgrade through learning, adoption and innovation. Hence, despite improvements in technological capabilities the share of clothing value-added in manufacturing has gradually declined. Also, China has increasingly faced industrial structural change from clothing to the capital goods, real estate and high tech sectors.
    Keywords: China, clothing, global integration, production networks, technological upgrading
    JEL: L62 L22 L14 O31
    Date: 2015–02
  4. By: Ito, Tadashi; Okubo, Toshihiro
    Abstract: In this study, we argue that the conventional intra-industry trade (IIT) index does not address the quality issue directly and propose a methodology to make full use of unit-price gap information to deduce quality differences between simultaneously exported and imported products. By applying this measure to German trade data at the eight-digit level, we study the quality improvement of Chinese export goods in its IIT with Germany. We compare the case of China with those of Eastern European countries, which are also major trading partners of Germany. Our results show that the unit-value difference in IIT between Germany and Eastern European countries is clearly narrowing. However, China's export prices to Germany are much lower than Germany's export prices to China, and this gap has not narrowed over the last 23 years. This is at odds with the common perception that China's product quality has improved, as documented by Rodrik (2006) and Schott (2008). Our results support Xu (2010), which argued that incorporating the quality aspect of the exported goods weakens or even eliminates the evidence of the sophistication of Chinese export goods in Rodrik (2006).
    Keywords: China, East Europe, Germany, International trade, Exports, Product quality, Intra-Industry Trade
    JEL: F15
    Date: 2014–09
  5. By: Pavlicek, Jaroslav; Kristoufek, Ladislav
    Abstract: The online activity of Internet users has repeatedly been shown to provide a rich information set for various research fields. We focus on job-related searches on Google and their possible usefulness in the region of the Visegrad Group - the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. Even for rather small economies, the online searches of inhabitants can be successfully utilized for macroeconomic predictions. Specifically, we study unemployment rates and their interconnection with job-related searches. We show that Google searches enhance nowcasting models of unemployment rates for the Czech Republic and Hungary whereas for Poland and Slovakia, the results are mixed.
    Keywords: unemployment,Google Trends,nowcasting
    JEL: E24 E27 J64
    Date: 2015
  6. By: Ran Li; Jiao Wang
    Abstract: In this paper, we aim to understand how monetary policy is conducted in China and what the main sources of fluctuations in China’s business cycle are. To this end, we extend a standard New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with financial frictions and investment-specific technology shocks. We incorporate a hybrid form of monetary policy rule and employ a Bayesian estimation strategy using Chinese data. We find that the People’s Bank of China conducts monetary policy by adjusting the policy rate in response to inflation, output growth as well as real money growth. We also find that neutral technology shocks are the main drivers of the fluctuations in output and consumption while the investment-specific technology shock is the primary source of the variation in investment. This paper offers a new way of examining the rule of China’s monetary policy and indicates a structural break of the neutral technology development that may have caused the slowing down of GDP growth since 2010.
    Keywords: Monetary policy, business fluctuation, Bayesian estimation, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, China
    JEL: E32 E43 E52
    Date: 2015–04
  7. By: Lei, Lei
    Abstract: To enhance Chinese agricultural production, improve food quality, build consumer trust, and encourage the export of agricultural products, the Chinese government designed the Chinese version of Good Agricultural Practice (ChinaGAP) based on the main principles of the GlobalGAP combining the current Chinese agricultural production situation. This paper studies the characteristics of the ChinaGAP and focusing on the diffusion of the standard using qualitative analysis. Relevant policy recommendations are given based on the Chinese agricultural production status. Previous studies mainly focused on the role of the government. However this paper makes specific suggestions to particular stakeholders in the standard making and diffusion process.
    Keywords: China, Agriculture, Agricultural products, Agricultural policy, Sustainable development, ChinaGAP, Government supports, Policy diffusion, Sustainable agricultural production
    JEL: O38 Q01 Q18
    Date: 2015–03
  8. By: Vorobyev Pavel
    Abstract: TInformal economy in Russian regions is measured using two approaches: 1) cross-section regression model for electricity consumption in Russian regions; 2) augmented electricity dynamics approach. 1) Regression model is applied for electricity consumption in production of goods and services (total electricity consumption less losses, less households’ consumption). Model was estimated on the basis of regional data in 2011. It allowed estimating informal economy share in 67 Russian regions in 2011. The average informal economy share is estimated at 40% with standard deviation 18 percentage points. These results show high positive correlation with usual proxies for informal economy such as corruption, unemployment, and especially dependency of regional budget from Federal transfers. 2) Augmented electricity dynamics approach is developed to estimate dynamics of informal economy share in regions over 2004-2011. Comparing to traditional method in the literature, it takes into account changes in regional industrial structure and electricity intensity of GRP. It leads to more accurate estimates. It has been shown that the share of informal economy in Russia diminished from 55% in 2004 to 40% in 2011 due to the growth of formal sector. Only 16 from 65 regions witnessed an increase in informal economy share over the period.
    JEL: R11
    Date: 2015–03–27
  9. By: Zhang Yan; Kawabata Nozomu
    Abstract: This study aims to determine the nature of entrepreneur behavior, business creation, and transformation of software companies in Dalian City through case studies. Four companies that were launched in the 2000s were studied. These companies' businesses initially involved labor-intensive processes of offshore software development for the Japanese market. However, they were confronted with the challenge of business transformation after the global financial crisis. Their set agenda included forays into high-grade processes, diversification of products and services, and exploitation of the Chinese market. All four companies tried to transform themselves by creating a unique advantage. The development of such an advantage was a focal point for the software companies to transform their business structure that relied heavily on labor-intensive offshore development. The acquisition of high-grade human resources was an important factor for gaining this advantage. In the field of offshore development for Japanese market, cross-border cooperation across processes was necessary to advance into high-grade processes. The gon /off -siteh hypothesis was valid, while having a Bridge System Engineer (BSE) in the company was not a prerequisite. Differences were observed across the four case studies. In China, Japanese-affiliated companies approached other Japanese-affiliated companies, while Chinese companies approached other Chinese companies. Moreover, the disparity of resource availability for transformation was large between big companies and small-and medium -sized companies. As a result, difference was observed in the strategy employed by the companies for transformation, especially in personnel management in the face of high liquidity in the labor market in China.
    Date: 2015–03
  10. By: Yansheng LI (Beijing Zhengxiang Yongdao Management Consulting Company); Xin Xin KONG (Chinese Academy of Science and Technology for Development); Miao ZHANG (Department of Development Studies, University of Malaya)
    Abstract: This article examines the development of China’s automotive industry. The evidence shows that integration in global production networks has stimulated upgrading of technological capabilities among automotive firms. However, the competitiveness and intra-industry analyses show mixed results. Although intraindustry trade in automotive products has improved since 2000, the trade competitiveness of completely built up vehicles has largely remained in low value added activities. Nevertheless, firm-level evidence shows that the industry has undergone considerable upgrading, albeit in low value added activities. Trade integration and host-country institutional support have been the prime driving forces of technological upgrading in the automotive industry in China.
    Keywords: automotive industry, foreign firms, production networks, technological capabilities
    JEL: L62 L22 L14 O31
    Date: 2015–02
  11. By: Joanna Bednarz (University of Gdansk); Magdalena Markiewicz (University of Gdansk)
    Abstract: The article presents results of critical theoretical and empirical analysis of cooperation between Polish enterprises based on two models: made by T. Ozawa and M.E. Porter, and followed by market research concerning opportunities to support cooperation of Polish enterprises. Polish companies seem to opt for confrontation, as the main market strategy, basing on the development of one company while worsening the position of rivals at the same time. The aim of this paper is to show possibilities in supporting Polish companies to build their capabilities, as well as identifying barriers, in transition from confrontation to cooperation. The article is divided into four parts. In the first part, there are defined the stages of development of economy and enterprises in Europe, concentrating the attention on Poland, with reference to T. Ozawa model. The analysis covers the indicators included in European Innovation Scoreboard, Exploratory Approach to Innovation Scoreboard, Global Summary Innovation Index, and STI indicators, with regard to cooperation aspects. In the second part the authors analyse the essence and forms of cooperation between companies. The third part of the paper concentrates on the market research of the support means available for Polish enterprises. In conclusion, there was given a brief summary of the main findings about opportunities and barriers of institutional approach towards cooperation between Polish enterprises. In the paper two types of research methods were used: methods of data collection and methods of organizing and processing information. There can be enumerated especially methods of systems, cause and logical analysis of institutional support.
    Keywords: cooperation, enterprise policy, institutional support, economic development, Polish enterprises
    JEL: D21 D85 L14 L21 L53
    Date: 2015–04
  12. By: Anastasia Edelkina (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Oleg Karasev (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Natalia Velikanova (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This article explores new innovation policy measures aimed at ongoing transformation of the space industry in Russia. The current implementation of a wide range of state programs and presidential decrees helps to maintain the leading position of Russia in the space industry and expanding international cooperation. The main objective of the paper is to present the principal directions of space policy development in Russia, including its priorities and the tasks to be solved in the short and mid-terms. In this paper we explore the main details of the space policy in Russia, the priorities of its development mentioned in the legal documents focusing on the innovative development of the space industry and possibilities for the public-private partnership and institutional reforms in this area
    Keywords: space policy, innovation, government program, technology platform, innovative cluster, institutional reforms, public-private partnership
    JEL: O38 L50 D78
    Date: 2015
  13. By: Yamaguchi, Mami
    Abstract: Labour NGOs in China are relatively new organizations that emerged in the 1990s and have spread during the 2000s. Migrant workers in China are weak both socially and economically and have been lacking ways of voicing grievances and protesting. Grassroots labour NGOs for migrant workers seem to be an efficient channel for their voices. This paper examines how labour NGOs emerged and how they function in the context of current Chinese society. This paper adopts the case study method to describe three NGOs in Beijing and Shenzhen. The paper shows that these NGOs are using different methods to resolve migrant worker problems. At the same time, they are voicing the migrants' grievances and protesting in their own ways.
    Keywords: China, Migrant labor, Labor, Non-governmental organizations, Migrant worker, Labour NGOs
    JEL: J83 Z13
    Date: 2015–03
  14. By: Chong, Terence Tai Leung; Ding, Yue; Li, Yong
    Abstract: In this paper, on the basis of stochastic volatility (SV) models, we extend the approach of option pricing for executive stock options (ESOs) under FAS 123. Based on this extension, a sample of Chinese listed companies’ ESOs are priced. We analyze the effect of the some important financial variables on the implementation of ESOs. It is found that in China, firms with higher market risk and larger size are likely to have a higher ESO proportion in their executive incentive plans. The effects of the book-to market ratio, stock price volatility, executive shareholding proportion, and the leverage ratio are also examined.
    Keywords: Bayesian analysis; Executive stock options; FAS 123; Option pricing; SV models.
    JEL: G3
    Date: 2015–02–27
  15. By: Lyubov Andrushko (Politechnika Swietokrzyska)
    Abstract: The paper presents the synthetic results of research on the evaluation of efficiency of selected food industries in Poland, in the years 2000-2013. A dynamic approach was applied to the studies which were based on the analysis of prices of raw materials, meat products and product assortments of meat processing companies. The mechanism of prices impact on the efficiency of management was examined using the term ”food chain” in the meat industry, which comprises: agriculture- food processing-consumers. The reasoning of the influence of micro and macro factors on the economic efficiency in the pursuit of sustainable development was applied in the study as well as theoretical knowledge. This was the knowledge on the price structure, the impact of internal transformations (changes) of enterprises on the level of prices of goods offered by them in the meat industry studied.
    Keywords: food chain, efficiency evaluation, prices dynamics, meat products consumption pattern
    JEL: D4 L1 O13
    Date: 2015–04
  16. By: Xin Xin KONG (Chinese Academy of Science and Technology for Development); Miao ZHANG (Department of Development Studies, University of Malaya); Santha Chenayah RAMU (Department of Economics, University of Malaya)
    Abstract: This article examines how global production networks have benefited technological upgrading in the semiconductor industry in China. The evidence shows that trade has impacted positively on technological capabilities. The empirical evidence show that 93 percent of firms were engaged in incremental innovation activities, while 87 percent in new product development in 2012. The mean R&D intensity was 6.3 percent. State-owned enterprises showed the lowest mean of 5.3 percent. The mean share of R&D personnel in workforce was 28.2 percent. Government support (90 percent) and collaboration with universities and research institutes (87 percent) has been pertinent in firms’ participation in R&D activities.
    Keywords: China, innovation, integrated circuit, semiconductors, technological capabilities
    JEL: L62 L22 L14 O31
    Date: 2015–02
  17. By: ZhongXiang Zhang (School of Economics, Fudan University)
    Abstract: The Chinese central government has approved the seven pilot carbon trading schemes. These seven pilot regions are deliberately selected to be at varying stages of development and are given considerable leeway to design their own schemes. These pilot trading schemes have features in common, but vary considerably in their approach to issues such as the coverage of sectors, allocation of allowances, price uncertainty and market stabilization, potential market power of dominated players, use of offsets, and enforcement and compliance. This article explains why China opts for emissions trading, rather than carbon or environmental taxes at least initially, discusses the key common and varying features of these carbon trading pilots and their first-year performance, draws the lessons learned, discusses the potential pathways for evolution of regional pilot carbon trading schemes into a nationwide carbon trading scheme, and raises fundamental issues that must be addressed in order to make such an emissions trading scheme to work reliably and effectively and with an increasingly expanded coverage and scope Keywords: Pilot carbon trading schemes; environmental taxes; compliance; carbon offsets; energy prices; China
    JEL: H23 O13 P28 Q43 Q48 Q52 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2015–04
  18. By: Françoise Lemoine; Sandra Poncet; Deniz Ünal; Clément Cassé
    Abstract: Since the global crisis, China's foreign trade is no longer driven by its involvement in the global supply chains (i.e. by processing trade) but its dynamics stems from China’s own domestic demand and supply. For foreign funded enterprises, China is less and less a production base for export and more and more a domestic market to be captured, as shown by their growing involvement in ordinary trade. The demand for high-end consumer goods has benefited European exporters, especially to Germany.
    Keywords: China;Growth model;FDI;Foreign trade;Domestic market
    JEL: F2 F1 F15 F23
    Date: 2015–03
  19. By: Yongzheng Liu (School of Finance, China Financial Policy Research Center Renmin University of China); Jorge Martinez-Vazquez (International Center for Public Policy. Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University); Alfred M. Wu (Department of Asian and Policy Studies The Hong Kong Institute of Education)
    Abstract: Using a nationwide county-level panel dataset for the years 1995-2009, this paper conducts the rst analysis in the literature to examine the impacts of scal decentralization and scal equalization, both measured at the sub-provincial level, on intra-provincial inequality in China. While scal decentralization oers signicant advantages regarding public expenditure eciency, a potentially large disadvantage is that it may lead to increased regional inequality. In this paper, in line with our theoretical hypotheses, we nd that while scal centralization at the sub-provincial level in China leads to larger intra-provincial inequality, scal equalization eorts performed by provincial governments tend to mitigate the detrimental eect of scal decentralization on intraprovincial inequality. Our results also indicate that the quantitative eects of scal decentralization on regional inequality tend to be larger when they are measured from the expenditure side, which is consistent with the fact that expenditure decentralization is a much more meaningful measure of decentralization in China. Overall, we provide evidence on the potential inequality costs of using scal decentralization as a development strategy. At the same time, we emphasize the importance of implementing a scal equalization program to ensure the overall success of decentralization policy.
    Keywords: Fiscal decentralization; equalization, intra-provincial inequality; China
    Date: 2014–11–18
  20. By: Zhengbin Dong; Wenjie Wu
    Abstract: Air networks are normal examples of transportation systems among ubiquitous big data networks in dynamic nature. This is particularly the case in developing countries with rapid airport network expansions. This paper explores the structure and evolution of the trunk airport network of China (ANC) in major years during 1980s-2000s. We generalise the complex network approach developed in existing studies and further test for statistical properties of weighted network characteristics by using pair-wise traffic flows. We find that ANC is a small-world network in which (i) the number of airflight connections and (ii) the number of shortest paths going through a given airport city meet the densification law, however, its degree distribution does not follow power-law statistics like other countries' airport networks. The spatiotemporal decomposition of network metric plots and the visualization maps leads to a rich harvest of stylized ANC structures: (i) national hub-and-spoke patterns surrounding mega-cities; (ii) regional broker patterns surrounding Kunming and Urumqi, and (iii) local heterogeneous disparity patterns in isolated geographical cities, such as Lhasa, Lijiang, Huangshan, etc. These findings have important implications towards understanding the geo-political and economic forces at stake in shaping China's urban systems.
    Keywords: Airport system, complex network, regional development, China
    JEL: O18 R12 P25
    Date: 2015–03
  21. By: Gerard Padró i Miquel; Nancy Qian; Yiqing Xu; Yang Yao
    Abstract: This paper aims to show that culture is an important determinant of the effectiveness of formal democratic institutions, such as elections. We collect new data to document the presence of voluntary and social organizations and the history of electoral reforms in Chinese villages. We use the presence of village temples to proxy for culture, or more specifically, for social (civic) capital and show that their presence greatly enhances the increase in public goods due to the introduction of elections. These results support the view that social capital complements democratic institutions such as elections.
    JEL: H41 P16
    Date: 2015–04
  22. By: Svetlana Avdasheva (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Dina Tsytsulina (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Svetlana Golovanova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Yelena Sidorova (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: Many antitrust investigations in Russia continue to present a challenge for the assessment of competition policy and international enforcement ratings. On the one hand, many infringement decisions may be interpreted as an indicator of high enforcement efforts in the context of rigid competition restrictions and the significant related harm to social welfare. On the other hand, many investigations proceed under poor legal and economic standards; therefore, the impact of decisions and remedies on competition is questionable. In fact, large number of investigations may indicate the ineffectiveness of antitrust enforcement. The article explains the possible effects of antitrust enforcement in Russia. Using a unique dataset of the appeals of infringement decisions from 2008-2012, we classify the investigated cases according to their potential impact on competition. A case-level analysis reveals that the majority of cases would never be investigated under an appropriate understanding of the goals of antitrust enforcement, restrictions on competition and basic cost-benefit assessments of agency activity. There are diverse explanations for the distorted structure of enforcement, including the incompleteness and imperfection of sector-specific regulations, rules concerning citizen complaints against the executive authorities and the incentives of competition authorities. Our analysis shows that competition agencies tend to pay more attention to the investigation of cases, which requires less input and, at the same time, results in infringement decisions with a lower probability of being annulled
    Keywords: antitrust enforcement, authorities’ incentives, harm, Russia
    JEL: K21 K42
    Date: 2015
  23. By: Liu,Xuepeng; Shi,Huimin; Ferrantino,Michael Joseph
    Abstract: Many production firms use intermediary trading firms to export indirectly. This paper uses Chinese export data at the transaction level to investigate the tax evasion motive through indirect trade. The paper provides strong evidence that, under China's partial export value-added tax rebate policy, production firms can effectively evade value-added taxes by underreporting their selling prices to domestic intermediary trading firms, especially when they sell differentiated products. Even for a moderate level of underreporting, the revenue loss is close to one billion U.S. dollars. The paper also finds that such underreporting behavior through domestic intermediaries may be associated with cross-border evasion through underreporting export values to foreign partners. In addition, the results indicate that the evasion motive is stronger for larger transactions.
    Keywords: Economic Theory&Research,Debt Markets,Trade Policy,Markets and Market Access,Emerging Markets
    Date: 2015–04–06
  24. By: Ozcan Saritas (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Liliana N. Proskuryakova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); E. Kyzyngasheva (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: Water resources are crucial for the continuity of life. Humans and living species need fresh water for drinking and sanitation, while most, if not all, industries need water for some part of production processes and products themselves. Access to fresh water is a grand challenge at the global level, mainly due to increasing water consumption, low rate of replenishment of resources as well as external factors, like climate change, that significantly reduce amount of water available. The solution to the existing water problems require a systemic approaches for sustainable use of water resources, while advancing water infrastructure and providing circular use of water. Research presented in this paper, focuses on the use of water resources in Russia with a long term perspective developed through a Foresight study. Russia is one of the countries, which is relatively better positioned compared to a number of other countries in the world regarding the availability of water resources. However, there are still considerable issues regarding the protection and use of water resources, purification processes, water networks, consumption patterns, discharge, treatment and re-use. The present study aims to develop strategies and for the use of water resources with a long term time perspective. The first step involved a scanning exercise, to be followed by future scenarios and strategy proposals for action. Presenting the results of the scanning phase, the paper begins with the review of the key issues and challenges concerning water resources. Particular attention is paid to the state-of-the-art in the three domains identified in the scope of research: (i) sustainability of water systems, (ii) water use by households and industry, and (iii) new water products and services. Furthermore, trends, weak signals and wild cards identified in the course of the study, as well as their implications on water resources in Russia are discussed. The paper concludes with a brief description of the next phases of the study and follow-up activities planned in the project
    Keywords: water resources, sustainable water systems, water use, water goods and services, trend scanning, weak signals, wild cards
    JEL: H4 H5 H87 I30 M11 R20 R52 Q01 Q02 Q15 Q18 Q22 Q25 Q26 Q27 Q53 Q54 Q55
    Date: 2015
  25. By: Wen, Yi (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
    Abstract: The rise of China is no doubt the most important event in world economic history since the Industrial Revolution. The institutional theory of development based on a dichotomy of extractive vs. inclusive political institutions cannot explain China’s rise. This article argues that only a radical reinterpretation of the history of the Industrial Revolution and the rise of the West (as incorrectly portrayed by the institutional theory) can fully explain China’s growth miracle and why the determined rise of China is unstoppable. Conversely, China’s spectacular and rapid transformation from an impoverished agrarian society to a formidable industrial superpower sheds considerable light on the fundamental flaws of neoliberalism and the Washington Consensus and provides more-accurate reevaluations of historical episodes such as Latin America’s lost decade and plagued debt crisis, 19th century Europe’s great escape from the Malthusian trap, and the Industrial Revolution itself.
    Keywords: Industrial Revolution; the Rise of China; the Great Divergence; Market Fundamentalism; Neoliberalism; Big Push; Import Substitution Industrialization; Shock Therapy; Washington Consensus; New Structuralism; New Stage Theory.
    JEL: B00 N00 O1 O2 O3 O4 O5
    Date: 2015–03–01
  26. By: Sergey Ivashchenko
    Abstract: We build a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with five sectors (1 - mining; 2 - manufacturing; 3 - electricity, gas and water; 4 - trade, transport and communication; 5 - other). The model is estimated on 29 time-series of Russia statistical data. We analyse the out-of-sample forecasting prowess of the model and derive implications for economic policy.
    Keywords: DSGE, industries, out of sample forecasts
    JEL: E23 E27 E32 E37 E60
    Date: 2015–03–06
  27. By: Michele Imbruno
    Abstract: This paper highlights the crucial role played by international access to intermediate inputs to explain firm-level performance, via two channels simultaneously: trade and FDI. We develop a simple theoretical model showing that trade integration of input market entails an efficiency improvement within firms able to import (gains from input switching) and an efficiency decline within other firms (losses from domestic input availability). At the same time, FDI integration of input market implies non-importers’ efficiency enhancement (gains from input switching) and some ambiguous effects on importers’ efficiency (due to additional losses from foreign input availability). Using firm-level data from the Chinese manufacturing sector over the period 2002-2006, we find some results coherent with our theoretical predictions.
    Keywords: Heterogeneous firms, Trade liberalization, FDI, Intermediate inputs, Productivity
    JEL: F12 F14 F23
    Date: 2015–03
  28. By: Adam A. Ambroziak (Warsaw School of Economics)
    Abstract: Special Economic Zones (SEZs) were established to attract entrepreneurs to invest in Polish regions in order to increase their social and economic development. One of the most important incentives offered in SEZs is state aid in the form of an income tax exemption. The objective of this paper is to verify if the intensity of regional state aid granted to entrepreneurs in SEZs has had a positive impact on the social and economic development of Polish poviats (a poviat is an administrative district). The public aid was received by beneficiaries when they made some profits and, instead of investing, used a tax allowance to decrease their tax base. However, part of the positive outcome of economic activities envisioned in SEZs should be the development of existing businesses and the emergence of start-ups, as well as the improved attractiveness of the region and the inflow of new investors (which should be manifested by an increase in the gross value of fixed assets per entrepreneur and a decrease in the unemployment rate at poviat level). The conducted research allowed for the conclusion that regional state aid in SEZs in the form of an income tax exemption was of a relative higher importance to the poorest regions (higher share in the amount of regional state aid), while its significance was much lower in better developed areas in Poland (lower share in the amount of regional state aid). The year-to-year study showed no relation between state aid granted in SEZs and an increase in GVFA per company or a decrease in the unemployment rate. However on the basis of analysis of the cumulated value of state aid in SEZs for the whole period from 2005 to 2013, we can say that regional state aid in the form of an income tax exemption in SEZs had a positive influence mainly in poviats located in the poorest voivodeships.
    Keywords: regional state aid; special economic zones; regional development; poviats in Poland; public support
    JEL: H25 H32 R11 R58
    Date: 2015–04
  29. By: Jadvyga Ciburiene (Kaunas University of Technology, Lithuania)
    Abstract: The purpose of this research is to characterize and evaluate the results of economic development. In order to analyze the changes of economic development in different countries the index of economic development as share of sustainable development is used. The research characterizes economic development of two neighborhood countries – Lithuania and Poland. Empirical analysis of satisfactory cases of Lithuania and Poland during the period of the years 2005-2012 are examined. The point of this research – to analyze a country’s main macroeconomic development indicators and unify them creating an economical development index. The year 2005 was taken as the base year.
    Keywords: Lithuania; Poland; economic development; economic development index; macroeconomic indicators; regional development
    JEL: O10 O11
    Date: 2015–04
  30. By: Andrzej Cieslik (University of Warsaw); Jan Michalek (University of Warsaw); Iryna Nasadiuk (University of Warsaw)
    Abstract: Following the new strand in the new trade theory literature that focuses on firm heterogeneity in this paper we investigate determinants of firm export performance in Ukraine. The study is based on the BEEPS firm level data compiled by EBRD and the World Bank. The study covers the period starting in 2005 and ending in 2013. We estimate probit regressions for each year of our sample as well as for the pooled dataset that includes all years. Our pooled estimation results indicate that the probability of exporting is related to the level of productivity, the firm size, R&D expenditure, the share of university graduates in productive employment, as well as the internationalization of firms. The estimation results obtained for particular countries reveal some degree of heterogeneity. In particular, the firm age is significant only in the last years of our sample.
    Keywords: Export activity, firm heterogeneity, Ukraine
    JEL: F14 P33
    Date: 2015–04
  31. By: Schönfelder, Nina; Wagner, Helmut
    Abstract: This paper investigates the speed of institutional development induced by European integration. The hypotheses are the following. The prospect for European countries to join the EU disposes them to strengthen their institutions, so that the speed of institutional development is high. Furthermore, EU Member States preparing for the introduction of the euro have incentives to develop their institutions, but the speed of institutional development is much lower. As soon as Member States introduce the euro, institutional development grinds to a halt, or is even reversed, as there could be incentives to undo reforms. To test these hypotheses, we estimate a dynamic panel data model, in which the institutional development is measured as positive changes in Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGIs). The WGIs are explained by the “status” of the European countries (i.e. being a member of the euro area, a Member State of the EU preparing to adopt the euro, an acceding country, a candidate country, a potential candidate country or none of the above) and additional controls. To sum up the findings, we can confirm a positive effect of prospective EU membership. Being a Member State does not influence the institutional development path. However, for members of the euro area, there is robust evidence for institutional deterioration in one particular area, namely control of corruption.
    Keywords: Institutional development, transition economies, European integration, euro area, panel data
    JEL: F55 O43
    Date: 2015–03–03
  32. By: NGUYEN Dinh Chuc; NGUYEN Dinh Anh (Vietnam Central Institute of Economic Management); NGUYEN Ha Trang; NGUYEN Ngoc Minh (Development and Policies Research Center)
    Abstract: Using technological capabilities that take account of technology embodied in machinery, organization, processes and products, this article examines its link with host-site institutions and regional production linkages. The statistical results show no relationship between these variables. In-depth interviews complement the quantitative findings. Overall, the result show that the government’s localization efforts failed because too many joint-venture assemblers were approved in the 1990s when the domestic market was small. The lack of economies of scale also affected the growth of national suppliers. Hence, national producers are confined to low value added segments and lack the quality to compete in export markets
    Keywords: automotive, investment, regional production linkages, technological capabilities, Vietnam
    JEL: L62 L22 L14 O31
    Date: 2015–02
  33. By: Budzyñska Katarzyna (Uniwersytet Przyrodniczy w Lublinie)
    Abstract: Companies across industries gain the competitive advantage by outsourcing and offshoring. Developing countries are becoming the attractive locations for the BPO/SSC enterprises. The article reviews the definition of outsourcing and offshoring and presents the findings for the fast-growing BPO/SSC area in Poland. The study is based on detailed analysis of the literature on outsourcing and offshoring. The article presents a preliminary analysis of offshoring sector in Poland. The following considerations are taken into account: the number of companies and employees in this sector, foreign direct investment. The growing number of companies and employments in this sector. Subsequent growth of the offshoring business service sector in Poland is visible.
    Keywords: outsourcing, offshoring, foreign direct investment
    JEL: L24 L80 M15
    Date: 2015–04
  34. By: Antonescu, Daniela
    Abstract: From regional growth theoretical perspectives, exports represent the important factor with different impact in time and space. The export activities depend in a large share on the way in which a state or a region capitalises their endogenous potential, including the accumulated knowledge and existing capacities. Due to the positive impact on the regional competitiveness and specialisation, export is regarded, currently, as an important factor of economic resilience, but also as a pillar for the emergence of territorial inequalities. This paper investigates which export fields and products at regional level have resisted to crisis and the possible policy responses to mitigate the effects. Also, we intend to present a series of quantitative and qualitative comparisons regarding the regional export activity, for the period 2008-2013, when export registered variations from one from one region to another, under the impact of the world economic and financial crisis.
    Keywords: economic and financial crisis, export specialisation, NUTS 2 region, regional growth
    JEL: F14 R1 R11
    Date: 2015–02
  35. By: Decancq, Koen (CES, Univerity of Antwerp); Fleurbeay, Marc (Princeton University); Maniquet, François (Université catholique de Louvain, CORE, Belgium)
    Abstract: We propose a new class of multidimensional poverty indices. To aggregate and weight the different dimensions of poverty, we rely on the preferences of the concerned agents rather than on an arbitrary weighting scheme selected by the analyst. The Pareto principle is, therefore, satisfied among the poor. The indices add up individual measures of poverty that are computed as a convex transform of the fraction of the poverty line vector to which the agent is indifferent. The axiomatic characterization of this class is grounded on new principles of interpersonal poverty comparisons and of inequality aversion among the poor. We illustrate our approach with Russian survey data between 1995 and 2005. We find that, compared to standard poverty indices, our preference sensitive indices lead to considerable differences in the identification of the poor and in subgroup poverty comparisons.
    Keywords: multidimensional poverty measurement, preferences
    JEL: D63 D71
    Date: 2015–02–23
  36. By: Oleh Havrylyshyn
    Abstract: The first aim of this paper is to describe the main developments in the Ukrainian economy since its independence in 1991, focusing on the evolution of output, and the path of economic reforms — that is, to simply show what happened. The bottom line on that is well known: Ukraine’s economy performed very poorly, and its reforms moved quite slowly, lagging behind most of Central Europe and the Baltic, and even behind some FSU (Former Soviet Union) countries. This first task is a relatively easy one, though some measurement issues do need discussion. In comparison, the second aim — explaining why it happened, identifying the explanatory, causal factors — is much more difficult and contentious. Indeed, causation here means two dynamics: the relationship between performance and reform pace, and the underlying determinants of the slow reforms. The paper’s main effort will be to argue and present evidence that the poor economic performance is primarily due to the late and slow start on economic reforms. However, it only begins to point to the explanations for slow reforms and suggest a modeling approach to analyze this econometrically in future work. Contents of this publication were first presented by Oleh Havrylyshyn during the 135th mBank-CASE Seminar "A quarter century of economic reforms in Ukraine: too late, too slow, too little". / Niniejsze opracowanie ma na celu opisaæ g³ówne zmiany, jakie zasz³y w ukraiñskiej gospodarce od momentu odzyskania niepodleg³oœci w 1991 roku, równoczeœnie zwracaj¹c uwagê na rozwój produkcji i œcie¿ki reform gospodarczych. Dobrze znanym faktem jest, i¿ gospodarka Ukrainy funkcjonowa³a bardzo s³abo, a proces jej reformowania przebiega³ doœæ powoli, znacznie wolniej ni¿ w wiêkszoœci krajów Europy Œrodkowej i pañstw Ba³tyckich, a nawet niektórych krajów by³ego Zwi¹zku Radzieckiego. Kolejnym, o wiele bardziej problematycznym i kontrowersyjnym celem opracowania jest wyjaœnienie, dlaczego tak siê sta³o. W tym przypadku zwi¹zek przyczynowy powi¹zany jest z dwoma relacjami: zale¿noœci¹ miêdzy wydajnoœci¹ gospodarki i tempem reform, oraz czynnikami bêd¹cymi przyczyn¹ wolnego tempa reform. Najwa¿niejszym celem niniejszej pracy jest natomiast wykazanie oraz udowodnienie, ¿e s³abe wyniki gospodarcze s¹ przede wszystkim wynikiem póŸnego rozpoczêcia procesu reform oraz ich wolnego tempa. Jest ona jednak jedynie wstêpem do pe³nej analizy przyczyn opiesza³oœci we wprowadzaniu zmian oraz propozycja sposobów zastosowania metod ekonometrycznych do zbadania tego problemu w przysz³oœci. Treœæ Zeszytu zosta³a po raz pierwszy zaprezentowana przez Oleha Havrylyshyna podczas 135. Seminarium mBank-CASE: "Æwieræ wieku ukraiñskich reform: za ma³o, za póŸno i zbyt wolno".
    Keywords: banking and finance, competition, financial services, Ukraine, economic growth, economic development
    JEL: F5 P2 P26 P21 D02 E02 G2
    Date: 2015–03
  37. By: Dalia Bernatonyte (Kaunas University of Technology, Lithuania)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the nature and pattern of export specialization in Lithuania. The aim of this paper is to estimate the nature and pattern of Lithuanian export specialization under existing conditions. Seeking to define the nature and pattern of export specialization, the basic methods of export specialization measurement and the nature and pattern of export specialization in trade between Lithuania and the EU are determined. For measurement the pattern of export specialization in Lithuania two approaches are adopted. The index of export specialization is used to determine the pattern of comparative advantage. Secondly, trade dissimilarity index is used to predict structural changes in Lithuanian exports. Using these methods of measurement and standard international trade classification (SITC) was determined the nature and pattern of Lithuanian export specialization. It was found that the biggest flows from Lithuania to the EU are in such groups: food, drink and tobacco; raw materials; mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials. These calculation results show the main directions of nature and pattern of export specialization. This research could be useful for preparing and forecasting the possibilities of Lithuanian export development.
    Keywords: trade, export, export specialization, revealed comparative advantage index, trade dissimilarity index
    JEL: F1 F11 F14
    Date: 2015–04
  38. By: Tibor Zavadil (National Bank of Slovakia, Research Department); Teresa Messner (Institute of Economic and Cultural Geography, Leibniz Universität, Hannover)
    Abstract: This paper analyses the impact of household indebtedness on household net wealth, using Slovak data from the first wave of the Household Finance and Consumption Survey. We find two different effects of household indebtedness on wealth – a highly negative impact of non-mortgage debt and a neutral effect of mortgage debt. Furthermore, we find that households living in bigger municipalities and more developed regions are both wealthier and more indebted. Finally, we ascertain that household wealth is mainly determined by income, home ownership, inheritance, household composition, the characteristics of household head, and regional demographic and economic conditions.
    Keywords: household net wealth, mortgage and non-mortgage debt, regional analysis
    JEL: D14 G21 R20
    Date: 2015–03
  39. By: Edina Berlinger (Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences and Department of Finance, Corvinus University of Budapest); György Walter (Department of Finance, Corvinus University of Budapest)
    Abstract: In Hungary, more than 22% of the FX mortgage portfolio is non-performing and the tendency is worsening. In this paper we propose a solution to effectively reduce the credit and systemic risk inherent to this portfolio, but the proposed model can be applied to other mortgage portfolios in trouble, as well. The main element of our proposal is the income contingent repayment complemented with effective incentives to motivate debtors to repay their debt in a highly flexible way. We show that the proposed scheme is attractive both for the debtors and the lenders; therefore, contrary to some recent policy measures, in this case there is no need for direct state intervention to force modifications to the existing legal contracts. In order to evaluate the possible effects, we simulated a realistic population of borrowers with different age, debt, LTV and income. Then we calculated the expected income paths and the repayments of the borrowers, and also the profit of the lenders on the basis of the non-perforing FX mortgage portfolio. The results underpin that the proposed scheme creates significant value added, and most importantly it can effectively reduce the vulnerability of the whole economy to future shocks.
    Keywords: FX mortgage loans, emerging markets, management of credit and systemic risk, PTI, income contingent repayment, micro-simulation
    JEL: E42 G17 G21 G28
    Date: 2015–01
  40. By: Anders Aslund (Peterson Institute for International Economics)
    Abstract: Emerging-market growth from 2000 to 2012 was extraordinarily high. Aslund cites several factors to explain why emerging-economy growth is likely to be lower in the future. Having caught up with advanced economies in many respects, these countries face limitations on their future catch-up potential. The extraordinary credit and commodity booms are over, and many large emerging economies are financially fragile. They have governance problems and need to carry out structural reforms. The advanced economies, by contrast, have undertaken fiscal consolidation and structural reforms following the recent financial crisis and should experience higher growth rates.
    Keywords: growth, slowdown, middle income trap, energy, financial crisis
    JEL: G01 N00 O11 O43 Q33
    Date: 2013–11

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