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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Hao Meng (ECUST); Wen-Jie Xie (ECUST); Wei-Xing Zhou (ECUST) |
| Abstract: | The latest global financial tsunami and its follow-up global economic recession has uncovered the crucial impact of housing markets on financial and economic systems. The Chinese stock market experienced a markedly fall during the global financial tsunami and China's economy has also slowed down by about 2\%-3\% when measured in GDP. Nevertheless, the housing markets in diverse Chinese cities seemed to continue the almost nonstop mania for more than ten years. However, the structure and dynamics of the Chinese housing market are less studied. Here we perform an extensive study of the Chinese housing market by analyzing ten representative key cities based on both linear and nonlinear econophysical and econometric methods. We identify a common collective driving force which accounts for 96.5\% of the house price growth, indicating very high systemic risk in the Chinese housing market. The ten key cities can be categorized into clubs and the house prices of the cities in the same club exhibit an evident convergence. These findings from different methods are basically consistent with each other. The identified city clubs are also consistent with the conventional classification of city tiers. The house prices of the first-tier cities grow the fastest, and those of the third- and fourth-tier cities rise the slowest, which illustrates the possible presence of a ripple effect in the diffusion of house prices in different cities. |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1503.05550&r=tra |
| By: | Gottschalch, Sören |
| Abstract: | China's central government has rightfully recognized that successful urbanization will be decisive for the nation's future development. However, most city regions in China are not yet enjoying the net benefits that agglomerations in metropolitan regions can initiate. In this regard, following the latest discussions around the necessity of inclusive urban growth in China, the paper calls for a housing strategy that accommodates the surging waves of rural to urban migration, one of the main drivers of urbanization, and that provides migrants with greater urban socio-economic opportunities, improves migrants' urban prospects in order to facilitate a growing urban middle class as well as directing urban growth. Therefore, migrants' characteristics and their exposure to the immediate urban socio-economic environment are elaborated upon in order to understand migrants' housing priorities along their rural to urban transition. These housing priorities are the result of coping strategies in the face of distinctive urban opportunities and threats. In the context of migration, they form the underlying forces of housing demand development along the rural to urban transition. Eventually, when identified, these forces can be triggered in a way that enables urban growth to contribute to agglomeration benefits. This paper adds to the previous IPE working paper: "Urbanization in China and how urban housing demand can be met", by specifying the underlying forces of evolving migrant housing demands. |
| Keywords: | Urbanization,Migration,Migrant Groups,Transition,Urban Housing Demand |
| JEL: | D03 D14 D63 J61 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ipewps:472015&r=tra |
| By: | Martin T. Bohl, Jeanne Diesteldorf, Pierre L. Siklos (Wilfrid Laurier University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether the introduction of Chinese stock index futures had an impact on the volatility of the underlying spot market. To this end, we estimate several Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models and compare our findings for mainland China with Chinese index futures traded in Singapore and Hong Kong. Our results indicate that Chinese index futures decrease spot market volatility in all three spot markets considered. In contrast, we do not obtain the same results for the companion index futures markets in Hong Kong and Singapore. China’s stock market is relatively young and largely dominated by private retail investors. Nevertheless, our evidence is favorable to the stabilization hypothesis usually confirmed in mature markets. |
| Keywords: | Chinese Stock Markets, Index Futures, Volatility Spillovers |
| JEL: | G10 G14 G15 G18 |
| Date: | 2015–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wlu:lcerpa:0087&r=tra |
| By: | Nuutilainen, Riikka (BOFIT) |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on monetary policy in China. A set of different specifications for the monetary policy reaction function are empirically evaluated using monthly data for 1999––2012. Variation is allowed both in the policy targets as well as in the monetary policy instrument itself. Overall, the performance of the estimated policy rules is surprisingly good. Chinese monetary policy displays countercyclical reactions to inflation and leaning-against-the-wind behaviour. The paper shows that there is a notable increase in the overall responsiveness of Chinese monetary policy over the course of the estimation period. The central bank interest rate is irresponsive to economic conditions during the earlier years of the sample but does respond in the later years. This finding supports the view that the monetary policy settings of the People's Bank of China have come to place more weight on price-based instruments. A time-varying estimation procedure suggests that the two monetary policy objectives are assigned to different instruments. The money supply instrument is utilised to control the price level and (after 2008) the interest rate instrument has been used to achieve the targeted output growth. |
| Keywords: | China; Monetary policy; Taylor rule; McCallum rule |
| JEL: | E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2015–03–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2015_010&r=tra |
| By: | Fidrmuc, Jarko (BOFIT); Fungácová, Zuzana (BOFIT); Weill , Laurent (BOFIT) |
| Abstract: | The financial crisis has shown that the liquidity creation function of banks is critical for the economy. In this paper, we empirically investigate whether bank liquidity creation fosters economic growth in a large emerging market, Russia. We follow the methodology of Berger and Bouwman (2009) to measure bank liquidity creation using a rich and exhaustive dataset of Russian banks. We perform fixed effects and GMM estimations to examine the relation of liquidity creation to economic growth for Russian regions in the period 2004–2012. Our results suggest that bank liquidity creation fosters economic growth. This effect was not washed out by the financial crisis. Our conclusion thus supports a positive impact of financial development on economic growth in Russia. |
| Keywords: | growth; bank liquidity creation; financial development |
| JEL: | E44 G21 |
| Date: | 2015–03–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2015_007&r=tra |
| By: | Chen , Xianwen (School of Economics and Business, Norwegian University of Life Sciences); Garcia, Roberto J. (School of Economics and Business, Norwegian University of Life Sciences) |
| Abstract: | Angered by the Norwegian Nobel Committee’s awarding of the 2010 Peace Prize to a Chinese dissident, China signalled its displeasure by allegedly applying more stringent regulatory measures and import licensing procedures on Norway’s iconic product, salmon. This has been widely reported in the media internationally, but not formally investigated by the scientific community. Through interviews with stakeholders in the Norway-China salmon trade and examination of trade data, personal accounts corroborate the evidence from trade data that nontariff border measures have been disproportionately applied against Norwegian salmon. These measures have distorted China’s fresh/chilled whole salmon market since 2011, and are likely to have long-term consequences in terms of trade patterns, re-routing and smuggling of salmon, and for quality concerns. Accounting for the transhipped and the smuggled Norwegian salmon via Hong Kong and Vietnam, we challenge the popular misbelief that Norway has lost its majority share in China’s fresh/chilled whole salmon market, but rather has increased its exports, suggesting that these measures have failed to prevent more salmon from entering mainland China’s market. However, the Norwegian government’s refusal to meet the Dalai Lama in May 2014 suggests that the full effect of China’s salmon sanction has made its way upstream to affect Norway’s policy. |
| Keywords: | China; economic sanction; regulatory border measures; import licensing procedures; non-tariff barriers; trade patterns; transhipment |
| JEL: | F14 F51 Q22 Q27 |
| Date: | 2015–03–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nlsseb:2015_005&r=tra |
| By: | Pei, Jiansuo; Meng, Bo; Wang, Fei; Xue, Jinjun |
| Abstract: | This study adopts the perspective of demand spillovers to provide new insights regarding Chinese domestic-regions' production position in global value chains and their associated CO2 emissions. To this end, we constructed a new type of World Input-Output Database in which China's domestic interregional input-output table for 2007 is endogenously embedded. Then, the pattern of China's regional demand spillovers across both domestic regions and countries are revealed by employing this new database. These results were further connected to endowments theory, which help to make sense of the empirical results. It is found that China's regions locate relatively upstream in GVCs, and had CO2 emissions in net exports, which were entirely predicted by the environmental extended HOV model. Our study points to micro policy instruments to combat climate change, for example, the tax reform for energy inputs that helps to change the production pattern thus has impact on trade pattern and so forth. |
| Keywords: | China, International trade, Input-output tables, Environmental protection, Climatic change, Taxation, Energy tax, Carbon tax, Climate change, CGE model, Energy intensive industry |
| JEL: | C65 Q56 R15 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper493&r=tra |
| By: | Fidrmuc, Jarko (BOFIT); Korhonen, Iikka (BOFIT) |
| Abstract: | We summarize previous research on China’s business cycle correlation with other countries with the help of meta-analysis techniques. We survey 71 related papers along with all the characteristics of the estimations as well as those of the authors. We confirm that especially Pacific Rim countries have relatively high business cycle correlation with China. However, it appears that many characteristics of the studies and authors do influence the reported degree of business cycle synchronization. For instance, Chinese-language papers report higher correlation coefficients. Despite of this, we do not detect a robust publication bias in the papers. |
| Keywords: | business cycle synchronization; meta-analysis; China |
| JEL: | E32 F44 |
| Date: | 2015–03–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2015_006&r=tra |
| By: | Ahlheim, Michael; Frör, Oliver; Langenberger, Gerhard; Pelz, Sonna |
| Abstract: | Based on a contingent valuation study in Shanghai the authors assess people’s willingness to contribute personally to the alleviation of environmental problems occurring in distant parts of the country. One split of survey assessed Shanghai residents’ willingness to pay for the preservation of rainforest in Yunnan, while the other split referred to the willingness to pay for the preservation of a single plant species (i.e. eaglewood) growing in this rainforest. The objectives of this study were twofold. Firstly, the authors wanted to find out if people living in big Chinese cities like Shanghai take an interest in the environmental problems existing in some remote parts of the country and if they are willing to contribute personally to remedy these problems. Secondly, the authors wanted to learn more about the motivation behind this kind of empathy, if it exists. The researchers were especially interested in the question if this empathy refers to the specific environmental problems addressed in the surveys or if it is motivated more by a general feeling of obligation towards environmental issues. |
| Keywords: | eaglewood, rubber cultivation, biodiversity preservation, contingent valuation, ecosystem services, China. |
| JEL: | D6 D61 Q5 Q51 Q57 |
| Date: | 2014–11–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:62897&r=tra |
| By: | Meixner, Oliver; Haas, Rainer; Perevoshchikova, Yana; Canavari, Maurizio |
| Abstract: | In the last decades the market for organic food was well developed in Western European Countries and com-parable markets like the US or Canada. While these markets more or less approach market saturation, other markets still have huge potentials and are of special interest for exporting companies. In this paper we analyze demands, knowledge and expectations in the emerging market Russia. It is well documented that the Russian market for organic food has much higher growth rates compared to Western markets. According to the USDA, the market rose from about 640 million Rubel in 2004 to about 7.4 billion Rubel in 2011 (about 155 Mio €). This dramatic boost in sales might also be due to a significant change in Russians’ consumer behavior. Howev-er, some challenges have to be considered when entering the Russian market with premium products (organic food is usually sold at comparable high prices in Russia). (1) There is a huge number of low-income consumers who are not able to pay for premium products. (2) Up to now, there are no official organic labels available in Russia. Therefore, it is likely that the Russian population has a lack of knowledge on what organic food is and which requirements are connected to the organic production process. Considering these restrictions, it was interesting to analyze important factors for the food choice on the one hand and the knowledge of Russian consumers about organic food on the other. This contribution will present results for one specific product (organic potatoes) which can be considered to be a typical alternative to low priced, conventional products. A conjoint analysis was conducted in Saint Petersburg investigating the importance of buying attributes con-nected to organic potatoes (n = 300); obviously, the results are not representative for the whole Russian mar-ket. But the results impressively show how different consumers’ attitudes are compared to Western markets and how low the average knowledge about this product category still is. The findings deliver valuable infor-mation for all members within the supply chain who want to enter a market with high growth rates but also with obvious shortcomings. |
| Keywords: | Russian Federation, organic food, organic labels, food choice, consumer perception, conjoint analy-sis, Agribusiness, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iefi14:199363&r=tra |
| By: | Funke, Michael (BOFIT); Mihaylovski, Petar (BOFIT); Zhu, Haibin (BOFIT) |
| Abstract: | The paper sheds light on the interplay between monetary policy, the commercial banking sector and the shadow banking sector in mainland China by means of a nonlinear stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with occasionally binding constraints. In particular, we analyze the impacts of interest rate liberalization on monetary policy transmission as well as the dynamics of the parallel shadow banking sector. Comparison of various interest rate liberalization scenarios reveals that monetary policy results in increased feed-through to the lending and investment under complete liberalization. Furthermore, tighter regulation of interest rates in the commercial banking sector in China leads to an increase in loans provided by the shadow banking sector. |
| Keywords: | DSGE model; monetary policy; financial market reform; shadow banking; China |
| JEL: | E32 E42 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2015–03–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2015_009&r=tra |
| By: | Deryugina, Elena (BOFIT); Kovalenko, Olga (BOFIT); Pantina, Irina (BOFIT); Ponomarenko , Alexey (BOFIT) |
| Abstract: | This article presents three alternative models for decomposing loan developments into components associated with changes in loan demand and supply fundamentals. Two models are based on macro data (error correction model and structural vector autoregression with sign restrictions) and one is based on bank-specific Bank Lending Survey results. We conclude that although loan growth in Russia converges to a long-run equilibrium determined by macroeconomic (demand) factors the convergence is likely to be driven by bank-side (supply) shocks. We identify large and unexplained supply shocks in loan fluctuations during the crisis of 2008–2009, signifying an impairment of credit markets. We also find contractionary shocks unrelated to demand fundamentals or balance sheet structures in 2013, although in general loan developments in 2013 and the first half of 2014 were not at all extraordinary. |
| Keywords: | loan demand; loan supply; cointegration; structural VAR; sign restrictions; Bank Lending Survey; Russia |
| JEL: | C32 E51 G21 |
| Date: | 2015–03–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2015_008&r=tra |
| By: | Anna Lukiyanova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Nina Vishnevskaya (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study the minimum wage reform in Russia, which aimed to decentralize the fixing of the minimum wage and to increase the involvement of social partners in this process. The old system of the minimum wage setting was based on a single nation-wide minimum wage, which was differentiated across regions and occupations via a cumbersome framework of coefficients. The new system is a mixture of a government-legislated minimum wage at the federal level and collective agreements at regional levels. We show that the system of minimum wage setting has become more flexible. The reform succeeded in raising the real value of the minimum wage and increasing earnings of low paid workers without causing considerable negative effects in terms of employment. However, the reform did not lead to greater regional variation of minimum wages. It introduced some new imbalances: an unintended consequence of the reform was the emergence of separate regional wage sub-minima for private and public sector workers in many regions. The major challenge in coming years is to strengthen the institutions of collective bargaining, introduce evidence-based evaluation and boost the capacities of government and non-government monitoring agencies |
| Keywords: | minimum wage, wage policy, Russia, decentralization |
| JEL: | J31 J38 D33 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:90/ec/2015&r=tra |
| By: | Xindong Xue; W. Robert Reed (University of Canterbury) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses the 2005 and 2006 China General Social Survey (CGSS) to study the relationship between social capital and health in China. Using four separate samples totalling over 18,000 respondents and some methodological innovations that are new to the social capital literature, we identify social trust, social relationships, and social networks as robust correlates of self-reported health. The estimated sizes of the social capital effects are economically important, being of the same order of magnitude as those associated with age and income. We are unable to find evidence that social participation is related to self-reported health. Further, while women generally report poorer health than men, we find no evidence of gender differences in the social capital-health relationship. |
| Keywords: | Social capital, trust, self-reported health, China, ordered logistic regression, heteroskedastic ordered logistic regression, interaction effects. |
| JEL: | I1 O53 C25 |
| Date: | 2015–03–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbt:econwp:15/05&r=tra |
| By: | Igor A. Makarov; Anna K. Sokolova |
| Abstract: | According to current international climate change regime countries are responsible for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which result from economic activities within national borders, including emissions from producing goods for exports. At the same time imports of carbon intensive goods are not regulated by international agreements. In this paper emissions embodied in exports and imports of Russia were calculated with the use of inter-country input-output tables. It was revealed that Russia is the second largest exporter of emissions embodied in trade and the large portion of these emissions is directed to developed countries. The reasons for high carbon intensity of Russia’s exports are obsolete technologies (in comparison to developed economies) and the structure of commodity exports. Because of large amount of net exports of carbon intensive goods the current approach to emissions accounting does not suit interests of Russia. On the one hand, Russia, as well as other large net emissions exporters, is interested in the revision of allocation of responsibility between producers and consumers of carbon intensive products. On the other hand, current technological backwardness makes Russia vulnerable to the policy of “carbon protectionism”, which can be implemented by its trade partners. |
| Keywords: | global climate change, carbon emissions, virtual carbon, carbon intensity of trade, Russia’s trade, input-output analysis, Kyoto protocol |
| JEL: | F18 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wsr:wpaper:y:2015:i:149&r=tra |
| By: | Yoshino, Naoyuki (Asian Development Bank Institute); Kaji, Sahoko (Asian Development Bank Institute); Asonuma, Tamon (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | This paper theoretically evaluates the dynamic effects of a shift in an exchange rate system from a fixed regime to a basket peg, or to a floating regime, and obtains transition paths for the shift based on a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a small open economy. We apply quantitative analysis using data from the People's Republic of China and Thailand and find that a small open country would be better off shifting to a basket peg or to a floating regime than maintaining a dollar-peg regime with capital controls over the long run. Furthermore, due to the welfare losses associated with volatility in nominal interest rates, the longer the transition period, the larger the benefits of shifting suddenly to a basket-peg regime from a dollar-peg regime than proceeding gradually. Regarding sudden shifts to desired regimes, the welfare gains are higher under a shift to a basket peg if the exchange rate fluctuates significantly. Finally, shifting to a managed-floating regime is less attractive than moving to a basket peg, as the interventions necessary to maintain the exchange rate for certain periods result in higher losses and the authority lacks monetary policy autonomy. |
| Keywords: | basket peg; floating regime; exchange rate transition; peoples republic of china; thailand; monetary policy; Finance |
| JEL: | F33 F41 F42 |
| Date: | 2015–03–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0517&r=tra |
| By: | Chow, Sheung Chi; Wenjing, Xu; Xiaoyang, Wu |
| Abstract: | This paper tries to investigate efficiency of electricity use of 30 administration regions and productivity change of electricity in China for the period 2003-2008. We use the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method to measure the efficiency of electricity use and productivity change of electricity. From an empirical perspective, we provide a framework to investigate the situation of relative efficiency of electricity use and the growth rate of electricity’s productivity. The results indicate that the efficiency gap between regions is very large and the east areas have a higher level of electricity efficiency than the western areas. Moreover, both the technical and efficiency change in China from 2003 to 2008 is also slow. Based on these results, we propose some reasons behind and also give some suggestions about it. |
| Keywords: | Productivity analysis, efficiency of electricity use, productivity change of electricity, Malmquist productivity index, DEA |
| JEL: | Z0 |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:62972&r=tra |
| By: | Yu-Lei Wan (ECUST); Wen-Jie Xie (ECUST); Gao-Feng Gu (ECUST); Zhi-Qiang Jiang (ECUST); Wei Chen (SZSE); Xiong Xiong (TJU); Wei Zhang (TJU); Wei-Xing Zhou (ECUST) |
| Abstract: | Price limit trading rules are adopted in some stock markets (especially emerging markets) trying to cool off traders' short-term trading mania on individual stocks and increase market efficiency. Under such a microstructure, stocks may hit their up-limits and down-limits from time to time. However, the behaviors of price limit hits are not well studied partially due to the fact that main stock markets such as the US markets and most European markets do not set price limits. Here, we perform detailed analyses of the high-frequency data of all A-share common stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange from 2000 to 2011 to investigate the statistical properties of price limit hits and the dynamical evolution of several important financial variables before stock price hits its limits. We compare the properties of up-limit hits and down-limit hits. We also divide the whole period into three bullish periods and three bearish periods to unveil possible differences during bullish and bearish market states. To uncover the impacts of stock capitalization on price limit hits, we partition all stocks into six portfolios according to their capitalizations on different trading days. We find that the price limit trading rule has a cooling-off effect (object to the magnet effect), indicating that the rule takes effect in the Chinese stock markets. We find that price continuation is much more likely to occur than price reversal on the next trading day after a limit-hitting day, especially for down-limit hits, which has potential practical values for market practitioners. |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1503.03548&r=tra |
| By: | Nancy Qian (Yale University) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the extent to which pre-existing social (civic) capital interacts with village elections in determining government provision of local public goods. We collect a unique survey to document the presence of voluntary and social organizations and the history of electoral reforms in China. We exploit the staggered timing in the introduction of elections to estimate the interaction eect of the introduction of village elections and social capital on government-provided public goods. The results show that social capital signicantly enhances the eect of elections. We rule out alternative explanations and provide suggestive evidence for the mechanisms driving our results. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed014:1414&r=tra |
| By: | Nadezhda Lebedeva (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Ekaterina Bushina (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents results of the research into different types of creative behaviour and their predictors in the Central and North-Caucasus federal districts of Russia (N=2046). The revised PVQ-R questionnaire of Schwartz for values measurement and the modified Creative Behaviour Inventory (CBI) of Dollinger for creative behaviour measurement were used. The model with five different domains of creative behaviour: visual art, literature, craft, performance, organizational creativity and generalized creativity was confirmed in a simultaneous CFA in both regions. This model with values, gender and level of education as predictors was tested using structural equation modelling with AMOS 19.0. Values, education and gender influence creative behaviour in different domains. The value of Openness to Change positively, and the value of Conservation negatively influence creative behaviour in different domains in both the regions. The impacts of gender and education on creativity have domain and regional specifics: craft is a ‘female’ domain of creativity whereas organizational creativity is a ‘male’ one; higher education promotes organizational and visual creativity in both regions and literature creativity in the North Caucasus |
| Keywords: | creativity, domains of creativity, values, gender, education |
| JEL: | Z |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:34psy2015&r=tra |
| By: | Xu, Hongmei |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the relationship between corporate governance, state ownership and cross-listing by using data from 2,113 Chinese A-share listed firms during the period 2008 to 2013. Firstly, corporate governance features in state-owned vs. non-state-owned and cross-listed vs. domestically-listed firms are examinde. Secondly, this paper investigates whether state ownership and cross-listing affect the sensitivity of the relation between corporate governance and firm value in Chinese listed firms. The effects are rather mixed. |
| Abstract: | Der vorliegende Beitrag analysiert die Beziehung zwischen Corporate Governance, Staatseigentum und Zweitlisting anhand 2.113 chinesischer Firmen der Aktienklasse A in dem Zeitraum von 2008 bis 2013. Erstens werden Eigenschaften der Corporate Governance in staatlichen gegenüber nicht-staatlichen und doppelt gelisteten gegenüber nur inländisch gelisteten Unternehmen untersucht. Zweitens untersucht dieser Beitrag, ob Staatseigentum und Zweitlisting einen Einfluss auf die Beziehung von Corporate Governance und Unternehmenswert chinesischer Firmen haben. Die Effekte sind eher gemischt. |
| JEL: | G30 G34 M12 M50 P31 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:umiodp:22015&r=tra |
| By: | Ahlers, Anna L.; Heberer, Thomas; Schubert, Gunter |
| Abstract: | The authors argue that China's "authoritarian resilience" cannot be fully grasped without adopting a local state perspective to examine the way that policy-making plays out at county level and below. Although local cadre bureaucracies have to obey upper levels, they still have substantial maneuvering space to shape the implementation of policies. Arguably, effective policy implementation is a manifestation and a result of systemic adaptiveness, effectiveness refering to the way that policies are adjusted according to local development blueprints, managed in terms of policy coordination across local government bureaus, experimentation and innovation, regular evaluation, and mobilization of public support. This article is structured as follows: first, it highlights important policy changes and institutional reforms launched by the central government in the early 2000s, which impacted strongly on local state governance and laid the groundwork for effective policy implementation. The authors then focus on the "Construction of a New Socialist Countryside" "macro-policy" as a frame of reference to show how local governments at county and township levels ensure effective policy implementation. It is argued that local cadres act as developmental agents who are able to manoeuver successfully between central state requirements and local needs to ensure that things are getting done "on the ground". Subsequently, we show how local governments interact with and "guide" private entrepreneurs as important stakeholders in implementing local development blueprints and strengthening public goods provision. In the conclusion, the main findings and arguments are summarized. |
| Keywords: | effective policy implementation,local state governance,constructing a new socialist countryside,interaction local cadres - private entrepreneurs |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:udedao:992015&r=tra |
| By: | Amat Adarov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Serkan Çiçek (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Rumen Dobrinsky (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Vladimir Gligorov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Doris Hanzl-Weiss (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Peter Havlik (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Mario Holzner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Gabor Hunya (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sebastian Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Isilda Mara (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Olga Pindyuk (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Leon Podkaminer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sandor Richter (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Hermine Vidovic (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Growth in the CESEE region will follow the unimpressive pattern displayed by the euro area. The longer-term convergence of income levels in the CESEE countries can no longer be expected to be as rapid as was assumed a decade or so ago. Growth in the period 2015-2017 is not going to deviate substantially from the pace recorded in 2014. For the new EU Member States growth is expected to remain slightly below 3% in the years to come. This implies an average growth differential of about 1.5 percentage points as compared to the euro area – about half of what it was before the global financial crisis. On the other hand, most of the countries in the region are also expected to evade the dangers of runaway inflation, fiscal deficits or excessive foreign borrowing that often plagued them in the past. These are the main results of the newly released medium-term growth forecast for the region by the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw). Depressed aggregate domestic demand has been the major factor behind anaemic growth. This is evidenced by disinflation (or even mildly deflationary tendencies) across much of the region, as well as the persistence of fairly high unemployment. There is some evidence of a ‘race to the bottom’ in terms of wage setting. While wage moderation strengthens profitability and external competitiveness, it also weakens disposable household incomes and thus slows down growth in domestic demand. Apparently, there is a trade-off between improvements in the trade balance and more rapid growth in domestic demand. Overall, GDP growth is being held ‘on a short leash’. Growth in public investment may be supporting economic growth, especially in those new EU Member States (NMS) that have access to EU funds. However, a proper rebound in private-sector investment is still lacking. Weak private-sector investment cannot be attributed to a ‘profit squeeze’ in the corporate sector. On the contrary, the corporate sector has been doing very well, at least in those NMS for which relevant data are available. The corporate sector as a whole still tends to lend rather than borrow. The means available to the corporate sector appear to be plentiful at present – but the sector still prefers to lick its wounds inflicted by former excessive borrowing or extend loans (primarily to the public sector) rather than to invest productively. Loans are stagnant even in those instances where interest rates are relatively low. With a few exceptions (largely on the region’s periphery) the stocks of loans to the non-financial corporate sector increased marginally at best in 2014. This may reflect firms’ pessimistic assessment of future growth in demand, increased ‘liquidity preference’ or the relative abundance of the means at their disposal. Non-performing loans are linked to a high share of borrowing in foreign currencies. The recent strengthening of the Swiss franc will bear some negative consequences for those firms and households that borrowed heavily in that currency in the past. New evidence supports the claim that the countries with floating exchange rates fare better in the medium to long term. They tend to avoid irreversible currency overvaluation, whereas the countries with fixed exchange rates do not quite avert it. It is argued, however, that despite the rigidity of the exchange rates, overvaluation can be avoided – at least in the medium term. All the CESEE countries are running up fiscal deficits. Current account deficits are still depressed. Net national lending in the NMS tends to be positive. This is a consequence of current savings in the private sector in the NMS generally running ahead of gross fixed capital formation in that sector. On average, output growth across the NMS will become more uniform in 2015 – albeit not any faster. Average growth will remain at 2.7% in 2015. Some acceleration in marginal growth is to be expected in the biennium 2016-2017. Unemployment in the NMS will recede only gradually. Low inflation will prevail in 2015, but it will gradually return to more normal levels in 2016. Under sustained – albeit rather anaemic – growth, the current account balances will deteriorate (although they will still remain comparatively low). Growth is hardly accelerating in the (current and potential) EU candidate countries either. Output in those countries is not expected to grow faster than in the NMS. Turkey, Macedonia and Kosovo may fare slightly better than the rest of the group, with growth rates of above 3% in 2015. However, with the exception of Turkey, those countries seem to have put high inflation behind them. Nonetheless, their unemployment figures continue to be dismal (less so only in Turkey). They will also run high (or even very high) current account deficits. Most of the successor states to the Soviet Union will perform rather badly in 2015. Ukraine’s output will continue its free fall as many of the country’s industrial centres have become battlefields. A drop of 5% in economic growth is expected for 2015. The decline in world market prices for energy carriers will negatively affect both Kazakhstan and Russia, with real output in the latter country dropping sharply by almost 4% in 2015. A similar fate will befall Belarus a country that relies heavily on exports to Russia and Ukraine. However, assuming a peaceful resolution to the Ukrainian conflict in 2015, it is expected that all the successor states will resume moderate growth in 2016 or 2017. |
| Keywords: | Central and East European new EU Member States, Southeast Europe, Balkans, Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Turkey, economic forecasts, secular stagnation, functional distribution of income, wage-led growth, investment, deflation, sectoral financial balances, deleveraging, exchange rates, beta convergence |
| JEL: | C33 C50 E12 E20 E29 E65 E66 F02 F34 G01 G18 O52 P24 P27 P33 P52 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:fpaper:fc:spring2015&r=tra |
| By: | Lachowska, Marta (Upjohn Institute for Employment Research); Myck, Michal (Centre for Economic Analysis, CenEA) |
| Abstract: | In order to study whether public pension systems displace private saving, we use the quasi-experimental variation in pension wealth created by Poland's 1999 pension reform. Using the 1997–2003 Polish Household Budget Surveys, we begin by estimating "difference-in-differences" regressions, where we compare household saving and expenditure across time and between cohorts affected and unaffected by the reform. Next, we estimate the extent of crowd-out by using two-stage least squares. We identify the effect of pension wealth on private saving by using the cohort-by-time variation in pension wealth that is explained by the reform. We find that one additional Polish zloty, or PLN, of pension wealth crowds out about 0.24 PLN in household saving. We also find heterogeneity in responses. For the middle-aged cohorts, we find a large public pension crowd-out of private saving (about 0.54 PLN of private saving for each 1 PLN of public pension wealth), while the crowd-out for younger cohorts equals about 0.30 PLN of private saving per 1 PLN. Finally, we find a close-to-complete crowd-out among highly-educated households. |
| Keywords: | pension reforms, crowd-out effect, retirement saving, difference-in-differences, natural experiment |
| JEL: | E21 H55 I38 P35 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp8895&r=tra |
| By: | Ján Remeta; Sarah Perret; Martin Jareš; Bert Brys |
| Abstract: | The Slovak Republic was among the fastest growing OECD economies in the last decade. It is broadly recognised that the 2004 tax reform contributed to this success. Ten years after this fundamental reform, however, the time has come to re-evaluate some of the key characteristics of the Slovak tax system. The Slovak economy faces multiple challenges including an ageing population, a persistently high unemployment rate, significant regional disparities, skills gaps and risks related to the increasing international competition for mobile capital. Can the Slovak tax system in its present form prevail against these headwinds? The paper shows that the current tax system suffers from weaknesses that constrain its capacity to raise additional revenues and to create the conditions for inclusive and sustainable economic growth. Although measures have recently been introduced to address some of these challenges, additional tax reforms and a further strengthening of the tax administration will be needed. The OECD worked jointly with the Institute for Financial Policy (IFP) of the Slovak Ministry of Finance to provide an overall assessment of the Slovak tax system and recommendations for future tax policy reforms. |
| Keywords: | tax reform, Slovak Republic, tax policy |
| JEL: | H2 |
| Date: | 2015–03–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ctpaaa:22-en&r=tra |
| By: | Iguchi, Hakaru; Arimura, Toshi H.; Michida, Etsuyo |
| Abstract: | The objective of the present study is to examine the determinants of ISO 9001 certification, focusing on the effect of Product-related Environmental Regulations on Chemicals (PRERCs) and FDI using the answers to several questions in our Vietnam survey conducted from December 2011 to January 2012. Our findings suggest that PRERCs may help with the improvement in quality control of Vietnamese firms. If Vietnamese manufacturing firms with ISO 9001 certification are more likely to adopt ISO 14001, as well as firms in developed countries, our results indicate that the European chemical regulations may assist in the reduction of various environmental impacts in Vietnam. In addition, we found that FDI promotes the adoption of ISO 9001. If FDI firms in Vietnam certify ISO 14001 after the adoption of ISO 9001, as in the case of Malaysia and the developed economies, FDI firms may also be able to improve environmental performance as a result of ISO 14001. |
| Keywords: | Vietnam, International trade, Environmental protection, Foreign investments, Business enterprises, ISO 9001, FDI, Product-related Environmental Regulation |
| JEL: | F18 Q56 D22 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper497&r=tra |
| By: | Olteanu, Dan |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to investigate the presence of a creditless economic recovery in Eastern Europe, after de 2008-2009 output collapse. To this end, we use three variables: credit stock, credit flow and money supply M1. We find that the changes in the credit flow, as percentage of GDP, are the most distinctly correlated with the GDP rate. During the growth recovery, the credit flow tends to rise in six of the surveyed countries, although the credit stock declines in some cases. On the other side, the liquid segment of money supply (M1) registered in some countries strong rebounds that boosted demand recovery, due not so much to credit but to the liquidity preference. Within domestic demand, we notice a steeper decline of the fixed capital formation than the consumption one, but also a stronger subsequent upturn. The investment recovery seems to be supported in most of countries by the credit flow growth; there is a stronger dependence of capital formation on the newly created credit than in the case of consumption, which is rather correlated with the whole money supply M1. In conclusion, we can say that there was a “creditless recovery” phenomenon in Eastern Europe after the global crisis, but most countries recorded an increase of credit flow along with the GDP. The new flow of money is mostly used for investment and consumption, and thus supports the revival of domestic demand, especially in countries with a less developed financial system, such as the emerging european ones. On the other hand, the trend in the liquid part of the money supply may evolve, especially in times of financial instability, regardless of credit developments. This, along with other factors, strongly affects the degree to which GDP rely on credit. |
| Keywords: | Credit, Economic Recovery, Phoenix Miracle |
| JEL: | E44 E51 G01 |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ror:wpince:141212&r=tra |
| By: | Huang, Daisy J.; Leung, Charles K.; Qu, Baozhi |
| Abstract: | Using Chinese city-level data from 1999 to 2012 and considering geological, environmental, and social diversity, this study suggests that credit plays a significant role in driving up house prices after the Great Recession, whereas property prices only influence bank lending before 2008. Besides, local amenities such as higher education, green infrastructure, healthcare, and climate also positively affect house prices. Moreover, the impacts of bank loans and amenities on housing prices are interacted rather than isolated. |
| Keywords: | endogenous income and endogenous amenities; bank loans and monetary policy; multicollinearity; clustered standard errors |
| JEL: | G21 O18 R11 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:62853&r=tra |
| By: | Jana Å imáková (Department of Foreign Affairs, School of Business Administration, Silesian University); Daniel Stavárek (Department of Finance and Accounting, School of Business Administration, Silesian University) |
| Abstract: | This paper is the first study to use the disaggregated data of the Czech foreign trade to examine the effect of exchange rate levels and volatility on trade flows. We analyze the period from 1993 to 2013 and disaggregate the data according to trading partner and product category. The detailed results obtained from empirical estimations clearly show that the relationship between exchange rates and foreign trade in Czechia does not completely correspond with the theoretical assumptions. We revealed that domestic currency depreciation worsens in the long-term trade balance in substantial parts of the Czech foreign trade, such as in the trade of machinery and transport equipment with Germany, Austria and France. We also found that an increased exchange rate volatility does not necessarily reduce foreign trade turnover, as the results for crude materials, fuels, chemical and manufactured products indicate. Therefore, although Czechia is a small, open economy, the exchange rate effects on foreign trade significantly differ in magnitude and direction across the trading partners and product groups. |
| Keywords: | exchange rate, industry-level data trade balance, cointegration, vector error correction model, gravity model |
| JEL: | F14 F31 |
| Date: | 2015–02–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:opa:wpaper:0001&r=tra |