nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2015‒02‒16
thirty-one papers chosen by
J. David Brown
United States Census Bureau

  1. Regional Disparity and Dynamic Development of China: a Multidimensional Index By Bin, Peng
  2. Corporate Preferences for Domestic Policy Instruments under a Sectoral Market Mechanism: A Case Study of Shanxi Province in China By Shuai Gao; Wenjia Cai; Wenling Liu; Can Wang; ZhongXiang Zhang
  3. The Costs of Quid Pro Quo By McGrattan, Ellen R.; Holmes, Thomas J.; Prescott, Edward C.
  4. Discovering the signs of Dutch disease in Russia By Mironov, V.V.; Petronevich , A.V.
  5. Two Integration Projects in Europe: Dead End of Struggle By Vinokurov, Evgeny; Kulik, Sergey; Spartak, Andrey; Yurgens, Igor
  6. China's Technology Subsidies - Much ado about nothing? By Böing, Philipp
  7. Minorities in Rural China: Poorer but Inherently Happier? By John Knight; Li Shi; Yuan Chang
  8. An Evaluation of the Impact of the China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone (SPFTZ) By Daqing Yao; John Whalley
  9. China's R&D explosion: Analyzing productivity effects across ownership types and over time By Boeing, Philipp; Mueller, Elisabeth; Sandner, Philipp
  10. What Makes People Happy: Well-Being And Sources Of Happiness In Russian Students By Dmitry Leontiev; Elena Rasskazova
  11. Troubled road to the first spectrum auction in Poland By Kubasik, Jerzy
  12. The Czech Housing Market Through the Lens of a DSGE Model Containing Collateral-Constrained Households By Jan Bruha; Jaromir Tonner
  13. Labour Force Participation and Tax-Benefit Systems: A Cross-Country Comparative Perspective By K. Galušcák; G. Kátay
  14. Subjective Well-being and Social Evaluation in a Poor Country By John Knight; Ramani Gunatilaka
  15. The EU, a Growth Engine? The Impact of European Integration on Economic Growth in Central Eastern Europe By Katja Mann
  17. The Impact of EU Accession on Regional Business Cycle Synchronisation and Sector Specialisation By Jürgen Bierbaumer-Polly; Peter Huber; Petr Rozmahel
  18. Pipeline Power: A Case Study of Strategic Network Investments By Cobanli, Onur; Hubert, Franz
  19. How is credit scoring used to predict default in China? By Ha-Thu Nguyen
  20. In-Work Poverty in Poland: Diagnosis and Possible Remedies By Piotr Lewandowski; Agnieszka Kamiñska
  21. In the shadow of the Gulag: worker discipline under Stalin By Miller, Marcus; Smith, Jennifer C.
  22. Optimizing the Structure of Mongolian Foreign Trade and the Alternative Policy of Successful Transition By Byambasuren, Tsenguunjav; Gochoo, Munkh-Erdene
  23. Firm Performance and Trade with Low-Income Countries: Evidence from China By Schmerer, Hans-Jörg; Wang, Luhang
  24. Subsistence and semi subsistence agriculture in Romania By Vlad, Mihaela Cristina
  25. Youth unemployment and mental health: dominance approach. Evidence from Poland. By Martyna Kobus; Marcin Jakubek
  26. Soil biota as a natural resource for the restoration of degraded chernozems By Senicovscaia, Irina
  27. Credit Valuation Adjustment Modelling During a Global Low Interest Rate Environment By Petr Macek; Petr Teply
  28. Mid-term Effects of the Flat Rate Personal Income Tax in Hungary By Bartha, Zoltán
  29. Evolution of agricultural cooperatives in Romania in 2014 By Bercu, Florentin
  30. Microeconometric analysis of household saving in Estonia: income, wealth, financial exposure By Dmitry Kulikov; Karsten Staehr
  31. A New Technique based on Simulations for Improving the Inflation Rate Forecasts in Romania By Mihaela Simionescu

  1. By: Bin, Peng
    Abstract: This paper investigates the evolution of regional socio-economic disparity in China during the period 1998-2010. A new composite index of development (CIRD) is developed to capture the five main dimensions of regional development: macroeconomic conditions, science and innovation performance, environmental sustainability, human capital accumulation, and public facilities provision. The investigation benchmarks 30 (out of 31) Chinese regions according to such multidimensional index of development and thus improves the understanding of the evolution of regional disparity in China in terms of the various dimensions of socio-economic development. Finally, on the basis of stochastic kernel density estimation, the paper reveals the existence of a triple-clubs pattern of convergence in the period under scrutiny, thereby informing both the literature on regional convergence and the current strategy of balancing the uneven process of growth in China.
    Keywords: regional disparity, multidimensional index of development, stochastic kernel, distribution dynamics, Chinese regions
    JEL: O18 P48 R58
    Date: 2015–02
  2. By: Shuai Gao (State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control (SKLESPC) and School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China); Wenjia Cai (Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, China); Wenling Liu (State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control (SKLESPC), and School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China); Can Wang (State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, China); ZhongXiang Zhang (Department of Public Economics, School of Economics, Fudan University, China)
    Abstract: Understanding companies’ preferences for various domestic policy instruments is crucial to designing and planning Sectoral Market Mechanism (SMM) in China. Based on a detailed overview of domestic policy instruments under SMM, this paper evaluates corporate preferences for diverse domestic policy instruments and identifies potential influencing factors through econometric analysis. The data were collected from 113 respondents in all 11 prefecture-level cities of Shanxi province, China. Regarding policy instruments under the system of government receiving tradable units, corporate energy saving potential, learning capacity and companies’ characteristics have shown significant influences on companies’ preferences. Dissemination and the popularization of knowledge are also important to help companies learn how to improve energy efficiency. In terms of policy measures with voluntary installation-level targets, corporate competition level, organizational size and ownership are the main factors influencing companies’ preferences. Reducing inequality in the distribution of responsibility is especially important to gain companies’ support. Under the policy with mandatory installation-level targets, it suggests that policymakers should focus on status of energy use management and internationalization orientation. Policy instruments familiar to companies that are able to relieve corporate financial pressures might be good options to gain higher acceptance. Moreover, our results show that it is very important to choose an issuance frequency of one to three years under sectoral crediting.
    Keywords: Sectoral Market Mechanism, Domestic Policy Instruments, Policy Preference, Company, China
    JEL: D22 O13 P28 Q43 Q48 Q53 Q58
    Date: 2014–10
  3. By: McGrattan, Ellen R. (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis); Holmes, Thomas J. (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis); Prescott, Edward C. (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)
    Abstract: To gain access to its markets, the Chinese government sometimes requires high-technology foreign firms to transfer partial property rights to their technology. Because the Chinese market is large and potentially lucrative, major multinationals typically agree to this quid pro quo policy, often through joint ventures with Chinese firms. We use a quantitative macroeconomic model to analyze the effects of this policy on firm investment incentives, Chinese technology goals, and overall international technology and investment flows. We find that: •China has a very strong incentive to use the policy and would continue to use it even if advanced countries imposed identical policy restrictions on access to their domestic markets. •The policy discourages innovation investment by foreign firms. We estimate that, by 2010, China’s quid pro quo had reduced advanced country stocks of knowledge by about 5 percent relative to what they would have been had China not imposed the policy. China’s economy is thus big enough that its policies have global consequences for investment and growth. •Despite this disincentive, direct investment into China by advanced country firms does take place, and the resulting technology transfers accumulate in China. We estimate that as of 2010, more than half of all technology owned by Chinese firms was obtained from foreign firms. At this point, U.S. policy options on China’s quid pro quo requirement are limited and possibly counterproductive. Nonetheless, as China’s technology advances, the incentives underlying its policy may change and it will have greater motivation to protect its own technology property rights, and respect others’.
    Date: 2015–01–29
  4. By: Mironov, V.V. (BOFIT); Petronevich , A.V. (BOFIT)
    Abstract: This paper examines the problem of Dutch disease in Russia during the oil boom of the 2000s, from both the theoretical and empirical points of view. Our analysis is based on the classical model of Dutch disease by Corden and Neary (1982). We examine the relationship between changes in the real effective exchange rate of the ruble and the evolution of the Russian economic structure during the period 2002 – 2013. We empirically test the main effects of Dutch disease, controlling for specific features of the Russian economy, namely the large role of state-owned organizations. We estimate the resource movement and spending effects as determined by the theoretical model and find the presence of several signs of Dutch disease: the negative impact of the real effective exchange rate on growth in the manufacturing sector, the growth of total income of workers, and the positive link between the real effective exchange rate and returns on capital in all three sectors. Although also predicted by the model and clearly observable, the shift of labor from manufacturing to services cannot be explained by ruble appreciation alone.
    Keywords: Dutch disease; resource curse; real effective exchange rate; cointegration model; economic policy; Russia
    JEL: C32 F41 F43
    Date: 2015–01–19
  5. By: Vinokurov, Evgeny; Kulik, Sergey; Spartak, Andrey; Yurgens, Igor
    Abstract: The report represents the first part of a project targeting the problems and prospects of two economic integration projects in Greater Europe — the European project (European Union) and the Eurasian project (Russia, the Customs Union and the Eurasian Economic Union). This topic is particularly relevant in light of the Ukrainian crisis, the signing of Association Agreements with the EU by Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine, as well as the looming threat of „continental fracture‟.
    Keywords: economic integration, Europe, Russia, Customs Union, Eurasian Economic Union, Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine
    JEL: F13 F15 F5
    Date: 2014
  6. By: Böing, Philipp
    Abstract: This study investigates the allocation and effect of technology subsidies on R&D activities and technology acquisitions of Chinese domestic firms. We exploit novel firm data which includes information on subsidies, R&D, patents, trade, and balance sheet indicators. Conditional difference-in-difference estimation confirms that the innovation policy of China s government follows a picking-the-winner strategy. Technology subsidies are allocated to minority state-owned and privately owned firms which have high-tech inventions, high profitability, and compete with foreign firms in domestic industries. However, we find almost no evidence which confirms that technology subsidies incentivize an increase in R&D intensity or technology acquisition. There is weak evidence for a positive effect of consecutive treatments.
    JEL: O38 O32 O30
    Date: 2014
  7. By: John Knight; Li Shi; Yuan Chang
    Abstract: This is a pioneering study of the determinants of the subjective well-being of ethnic minority people in rural China, using a specially designed sample survey relating to 2011.  The underlying hypothesis is that the lifestyle and attitudes of ethnic minorities contribute to their happiness.  Five related hypotheses are tested.  The minority group is equally happy as the Han group.  However, whereas minorities' much lower income reduces their happiness, this disadvantage is neutralised by their greater inherent capacity for happiness - much of it derived from personal relationships but not, it seems, from lesser materialism or concentrated living together.  There is evidence of considerable heterogeneity in happiness across various ethnic minorities.  Suggestions are made for further research, including analysis of the (positive) effects of lifestyle against the (negative) effects of perceived discrimination.  There is a deeper question with which the paper connects: if subjective well-being is accepted as a criterion for social evaluation, does economic development produce cultural change for the better or for the worse?
    Keywords: China, Culture, Ethic minorities, Happiness function, Lifestyle, Subjective well-being
    JEL: I31 J15 Z10
    Date: 2014–06–20
  8. By: Daqing Yao; John Whalley
    Abstract: In this paper we present evidence as to the effects of the China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone (SPFTZ) on China’s capital controls. The start of the SPFTZ in September, 2013 was a trial to introduce a combination of exchange rate floating and capital account liberalization into China’s macro policy mix. We employ three methods to test the SPFTZ’s impact on capital controls: price spread tests between CNH and CNY, RMB yield gaps between onshore and offshore RMB markets, and Granger causalities among China’s money supply and the foreign interest rates. All these tests give consistent results suggesting that the impact of China’s capital controls is weaker since the SPFTZ.
    Date: 2015–01
  9. By: Boeing, Philipp; Mueller, Elisabeth; Sandner, Philipp
    Abstract: In the past years Chinese firms increased their spending on R&D substantially and worked on achieving a higher quality level of R&D. We analyze whether different R&D activities show a positive influence on total factor productivity (TFP) for firms of different ownership types and across two time periods. Our panel dataset with annual information allows us to study listed firms over the two time periods 2001-2006 and 2007-2011. Privately owned enterprises (POEs) not only obtain higher returns from own R&D than majority and minority state-owned enterprises (SOEs), they are also able to increase their leading position. Overall strong increases in the size of patent stocks are related to a decreasingly positive or even vanishing influence on TFP. POEs not only produce R&D of the highest quality but are also the only ownership type profiting from higher quality. Up to now research collaborations allow almost no benefit with the only exception stemming from domestic collaborations with individuals. Our comprehensive analysis depicts strengths but also weaknesses of the corporate sector in China. We derive implications for the further development of economic policies.
    Keywords: productivity,R&D,China,ownership type,patents
    JEL: O32 O33
    Date: 2015
  10. By: Dmitry Leontiev (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Elena Rasskazova (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper presents an investigation of sources of subjective happiness and their relationships to subjective well-being, taking into consideration cross-cultural specificity. 76 participants from two different Russian cities (Moscow and Petropavlovsk) were asked to write down things which make them happy and then to evaluate their actual attainability for them. The data were compared with Italian data (Galati et al., 2006) from 133 participants. The results reveal some cultural and regional differences in sources of happiness and a large degree of similarity. Paradoxically, regional differences in both the importance and attainability of separate sources of happiness within Russia are more pronounced than the differences between Russia and Italy. The mean indices of the attainability of happiness were similar for Italian and both Russian samples. We also found significant correlations between the mean individual attainability of happiness and well-being, which were much higher in Moscow than in Petropavlovsk. Some interesting correlations between sources of happiness and demographic and personality variables are revealed. A cluster analysis of the sources of happiness distinguished two large clusters, one including common ‘mundane’ sources, and another more individual sources. The last finding is in line with Leontiev’s two-level model of happiness. A cluster analysis of participants was in line with the analysis of sources and revealed two groups: the first one tends to choose happiness sources ‘passively’ and the second choosing individualized happiness sources
    Keywords: happiness sources; happiness attainability; well-being; cultural and individual differences.
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2014
  11. By: Kubasik, Jerzy
    Abstract: So far no general exclusive frequency licenses have been granted in Poland through an auction. In the Regulatory Strategy until 2015, the President of the Office of Electronic Communications pointed to auction as a method of choosing companies which will be granted frequency licenses from 800 MHz band (so called digital dividend). Initially, the auction has been scheduled to take place at the turn of 2013 and 2014, and was considered the biggest event of 2014 on the Polish telecommunications market. The article presents the main as-sumptions of the first ever spectrum auction in Poland on the basis of materials for auction assumptions' consultations, auction documentation, opinions of entities involved that have been submitted during consultations as well as the position of the President of UKE. The au-thor focuses on threats to execution of the auction itself as well as implementation of its re-sults. The text is preceded by a short description of the Polish telecommunications market, especially in terms frequencies owned by the main players on this market, including their joint ventures and capital connections.
    Keywords: regulation,spectrum auction,mobile services,LTE
    Date: 2014
  12. By: Jan Bruha; Jaromir Tonner
    Abstract: We incorporate a housing market with liquidity-constrained households into the Czech National Bank's core forecasting model (g3) to analyze the relationship between housing market and aggregate fluctuations in a small open economy framework. We discuss the historical shock decomposition of house prices and interpret the results in the light of recent empirical work. For a wide range of model calibrations, the interaction between the housing market and the aggregate economy is weak and so the monetary policy implications of house price fluctuations for the Czech Republic are not strong. We interpret this – in line with recent empirical evidence – as an indication that the wealth effects stemming from house ownership are not significant in the Czech Republic. Nevertheless, we show that the collateral mechanism significantly improves the forecasting properties of the extended model, especially for private consumption. This indicates the importance of the collateral effect, which can be caused by assets other than houses.
    Keywords: Aggregate consumption, DSGE models, housing market
    JEL: E32 E37 R31
    Date: 2014–12
  13. By: K. Galušcák; G. Kátay
    Abstract: This paper investigates the extent to which cross-country differences in aggregate participation rates can be explained by divergence in tax-benefit systems. We take the example of two countries, the Czech Republic and Hungary, which – despite a lot of similarities – differ markedly in labour force participation rates. We first replicate for Czech household-level data the labour supply estimation for Hungary presented in Benczúr et al. (2014) and use the two perfectly comparable estimates to simulate how the aggregate participation rate would change in one country if the other country’s tax and social welfare system were adopted. Our estimation results yield similar labour supply elasticities for both countries, suggesting that individual preferences are essentially identical. The simulation results show that about one-half of the total difference in the participation rates of the 15–74 years old population can be explained by differences in the tax-benefit systems. The highest response is obtained for married women or women of childbearing age. This is related to the more generous maternity benefit system in place in Hungary as compared to the Czech Republic.
    Keywords: Cross-country comparison, labour supply, microsimulation, participation rate, tax-benefit systems.
    JEL: C63 H24 I38 J22 P50
    Date: 2015
  14. By: John Knight; Ramani Gunatilaka
    Abstract: The empirical literature on the economics of happiness has grown rapidly, and much has been learned about the determinants of subjective well-being.  Less attention has been paid to its normative implications.  Taking China as a case study, this paper first summarises empirical results on the determinants of subjective well-being and then considers whether that evidence can be used for social evaluation.  Different criteria for social evaluation give very different answers: on the one hand, real income per capita and the human development index have risen rapidly in recent years but, on the other hand, subjective well-being appears not to have risen at all.  Ultimately a value judement is required: arguments are presented for and against including subjective well-being, either alone or with other criteria, in the social welfare function.
    Keywords: Capabilities, China, Happiness, Human development, Social evaluation, Subjective well-being
    JEL: D03 D63 O15
    Date: 2014–01–21
  15. By: Katja Mann
    Abstract: This paper investigates how the European integration process of central eastern European countries, which has been taking place since the 1990’s, affects their GDP growth. Based on an augmented Solow model, I estimate a convergence equation for a panel of ten countries over 16 years (1995-2010). In the regression, trade with the other European Union member states as a share of total trade serves as a measure of European integration. I find a small, but significant medium-run growth bonus from integration, which is robust to alternative specifications of the regression equation and of the variables of interest. The results are confirmed by a supplementary analysis at the industry level using a difference-in-difference type of estimation strategy. The paper thus provides an argument in favour of European integration.
    Keywords: European integration, central eastern Europe, economic growth, growth convergence
    JEL: C23 F43 O47 R11
    Date: 2015–01
  16. By: Triebs, Thomas; Tumlinson, Justin
    Abstract: Communism in East Germany sought to dampen the effect of market forces on firm productivity for nearly 40 years. How did East German firms respond to the free market after being thrust into it in 1990? We use a formal learning model and German business survey data to analyze the lasting impact of this far-reaching treatment on the way firms in former East Germany predicted their own productivity relative to firms in former West Germany during the two decades since Reunification. We find in confirmation of our formal model's predictions, that Eastern firms forecast productivity less accurately, particularly in dynamic and uncertain markets, but that the gap gradually closed over 12 to 13 years. Second, by analyzing the direction of firm level errors in conjunction with contemporaneous market signals we find that, in the years immediately following Reunification, Eastern firms estimate the market's role as generally less potent than Western firm do, an observation consistent with overweighting experiences from the communist era; however, over roughly 14 years both converge to the same (incorrect) overestimate of the market's role on their productivity.
    JEL: D21 D22 D83
    Date: 2014
  17. By: Jürgen Bierbaumer-Polly (WIFO); Peter Huber (WIFO); Petr Rozmahel
    Abstract: According to difference-in-difference estimates business cycle synchronisation and similarity in sector structures between acceding and pre-existing regions reduced after Eastern Enlargement. Results for Northern enlargement are more ambiguous. In both enlargements, however, region pairs affected by enlargement with highly synchronised business cycles before enlargement experienced smaller increases in business cycle synchronisation and weaker reductions of structural differences relative to similar unaffected region pairs than region pairs with less synchronised business cycles. Similarly, affected regions that were more similar in terms of sector structure before enlargement experienced larger reductions in structural differences and business cycle synchronisation than similar unaffected region pairs.
    Keywords: business cycle correlation, sector specialisation, EU enlargement, difference-in-difference
    Date: 2015–01–29
  18. By: Cobanli, Onur; Hubert, Franz
    Abstract: We use the Shapley value and the nucleolus to analyze the impact of three controversial pipeline projects on the power structure in the Eurasian trade of natural gas. Two pipelines, `Nord Stream' and `South Stream', allow Russian gas to bypass transit countries, Ukraine and Belarus. The third project, `Nabucco', aims at diversifying Europe's gas imports by accessing producers in Middle East and Central Asia. For the Shapley Value we obtain a clear ranking of the projects which corresponds to the observed investment patterns. Nord Stream's strategic value is huge, easily justifying the high investment cost for Germany and Russia. The additional leverage obtained through South Stream is much smaller and Nabucco is not viable. For the nucleolus in contrast, none of the pipelines has any strategic relevance at all, which appears to be at odds with the empirical evidence.
    JEL: C71 L50 L95
    Date: 2014
  19. By: Ha-Thu Nguyen
    Abstract: In this paper, we carry out a review of literature for both traditional and sophisticated credit assessment techniques, with a particular focus on credit scoring which is broadly used as a costeffective credit risk management tool. The objective of the paper is to present a set-up of an application credit-scoring model and to estimate such a model using an auto loan data-set of one of the largest automobile manufacturers in China. The logistic regression approach, which is widely used in credit scoring, is employed to construct our scorecard. A detailed step-by-step development process is provided, as are discussions about specific modeling issues. The paper finally shows that “married”, “house owner”, “female”, age in years, “working in public institutions, foreign, or joint venture companies”, down payment rate, and maximum months on book of current accounts negatively impact the probability of default.
    Keywords: Credit Risk, Credit Scoring, Auto Loans, Logistic Regression.
    JEL: G3 C51 C52
    Date: 2015
  20. By: Piotr Lewandowski (Instytut Badañ Strukturalnych); Agnieszka Kamiñska (Instytut Badañ Strukturalnych)
    Abstract: In this paper we analyze the evolution and the determinants of in-work poverty in Poland, according to three poverty lines: relative, absolute, and the 1998-adjusted poverty line. We find that behind moderately high in-work poverty incidence in Poland there is very high in-work poverty in agriculture and modest in-work poverty in all other sectors. Workers are much less likely to be poor than jobless individuals, especially the unemployed. In fact, the share of adults out of employment is a much stronger predictor of households’ risk of poverty than the level of wages at which they work. Moreover, the share of jobless adults or of agricultural workers has become an increasing determinant of in-work poverty over time. The risk of in-work poverty is also inversely related to the educational attainment and the stability of employment of an individual, which is especially important considering that the incidence of temporary contracts in Poland is the highest across both EU and OECD countries. Existing fiscal and benefit policies have not been sufficient to address in-work poverty and some of its underlying causes in the labor market: we propose four policy recommendations aimed at tackling in-work and total poverty, and at increasing labor market participation and employment.
    Keywords: in-work poverty, Poland
    JEL: J0 I3
    Date: 2015–01
  21. By: Miller, Marcus (University of Warwick); Smith, Jennifer C. (University of Warwick)
    Abstract: An ‘efficiency wage’ model developed for Western economies is reinterpreted in the context of Stalin’s Russia, with imprisonment – not unemployment – acting as a ‘worker discipline device’. The threat of imprisonment allows the state to pay a lower wage outside the Gulag than otherwise, thereby raising the “surplus” left over for investment: this externality provides a reason for coercion over and above the direct productivity of those in custody. Just how credible the threat of imprisonment was under Stalin is documented using archival data now available; but the enormous scale of random imprisonment involved is, we argue, attributable not to economic factors but to Stalin’s insecurity in the absence of a legitimate process for succession. We develop a model of demand and supply for industrial labour in such a command economy. To get more resources for investment or war, the state depresses the level of real wages; to avoid incentive problems in the wider economy, the harshness of prison conditions can be intensified. This is the logic of coercion we analyse.
    Keywords: Labour discipline, asymmetric information, efficiency wage, Soviet Union, Stalin
    Date: 2015
  22. By: Byambasuren, Tsenguunjav; Gochoo, Munkh-Erdene
    Abstract: This paper aims to make an alternative development policy which can encourage the foreign trade efficiency. In order to make the policy, the current situation of Mongolian Foreign Trade has been determined and invented the product sectors that have a chance to be developed for the further. In this paper, several methods such as Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) method, Product Space Analysis or Monkey and Tree Model, Opportunity Index, and Gravity Model have been used to make analysis. The paper illustrates that firstly, Mongolian Foreign Trade has been becoming more dependent from a single country, a single product and there is no structural shift. In other words, the most part of Mongolian export goods consist of the products that have low sophistication level and low value added, and based on natural resources. Also, the diversification of export goods basket is poor and even no unique products are included in the basket. Therefore, this paper suggests an alternative development policy based on Hidalgo, Ricardo Hausmann, and Bailey Klinger’s policy recommendations and foreign trade policy experience of China whose economic performance was the best in the world last 30 years.
    Keywords: Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Product space model, Structural transformation
    JEL: F14 F42
    Date: 2015–02–02
  23. By: Schmerer, Hans-Jörg; Wang, Luhang
    Abstract: Krugman's (1979, 1980) monoplistic competition model of trade showed that countries with more similar per-capita GDP trade more with each other. Does this mean that developing countries shift trade towards developed countries as a result of high economic growth? The results reported in this paper challenge the link between per-capita GDP and trade predicted by the force of gravity. The matched customs-manufacturing firm data used in this study reveal a rising low-income country trade share around and after China's accession to the World Trade Organization. Based on this stylized fact we analyze the link between firm performance and different export strategies. We find strong evidence for sequential sorting into different export-modes. i) only the most productive firms export to low-income countries, ii) export to low-income countries is coupled to export to high-income countries, iii) younger firms solely export to export markets with higher potential, and iv) low-income markets are served additionally by older firms. Moreover, we find that entry into simultaneous exports to low- and high-income destinations is associated with a higher productivity compared to the average productivity measured by incumbents' firm performance.
    JEL: F10 O11 F15
    Date: 2014
  24. By: Vlad, Mihaela Cristina
    Abstract: The paper aims to analyze the main question that arises in the context of current agricultural policies: are households farms really? Viewed from the perspective of sustainable development of rural areas, the answer becomes very important, especially given that the actual short comings rural employment opportunities and business development. Research is needed, especially given the new Common Agricultural Policy for the period 2014-2020 still provides annual grants (between 500-1000 euros), especially given that you want to implement a policy of restructuring. In order to eliminate the sector subsistence farmers producing for own consumption only occasionally provides a scheme for granting annuities 2020 for owners who will give lands on lease or be sold to commercial farms and co financing up to 15,000 euros for starting a business.
    Keywords: individual households, subsidies, sustainability
    JEL: Q01 Q12 R12 R52
    Date: 2014–11–20
  25. By: Martyna Kobus; Marcin Jakubek
    Abstract: In this paper we present evidence on the relationship between mental health and unemployment among Polish youth. The literature establishes links between mental health and unemployment, but the evidence concerning youths is scarce. We utilize 2010/2011 World Mental Health Survey that contains detailed information on the prevalence of psychiatric diseases and mental disorders in Poland. We compare health distributions in terms of both inequality and welfare relying on methods for ordinal data developed recently. We find that youth employed generally have better health status than youth unemployed, but the differences are very small when it comes to more detailed questions concerning mood (i.e. sadness, anxiety, anger). To observe substantial differences between two populations, one needs to ask even more detailed questions concerning personal feelings. Clear differences, however, emerge for social interactions and undertaking own initiative. Here employed present unambiguously better than unemployed.
    Keywords: youth unemployment, mental health, Poland
    JEL: J20 J22 I10
    Date: 2015–01
  26. By: Senicovscaia, Irina
    Abstract: The role of biota as a natural resource for the restoration of degraded chernozems of the Republic of Moldova is under discussion till nowadays. The status of biota of old-arable chernozems in conditions of the green manure applications has been evaluated statistically. Two experimental sites located in the central and southern zone of the Republic of Moldova have been tested by soil biological indicators during 2010-2012. The application of vetch as a green manure had created conditions for the improvement of the biota’s vital activity in chernozems which had been degraded as a result of a long-term arable use. The number of invertebrates increased from 48.1-55.0 to 71.6 - 78.0 ex m-2, the number of Lumbricidae family – from 25.6-38.0 to 43.3-68.0 ex m-2. The effect of green manure was manifested in the increase of share of Lumbricidae family in the total number of invertebrates by 12.1-20.8 %. The microbial biomass content in the arable layer of soils rose up in average by 1.4-1.5 times. The humification processes intensified as a result of the interaction between the fresh organic matter and the soil biota. Biological parameters did not reach the level of soils under natural vegetation. Management with the green manuring for the biota’s restoration of degraded soils and for the improvement of soil quality and environment has been recommended.
    Keywords: soil biota, green manure, degraded chernozem
    JEL: O13 O44 O50 Q24
    Date: 2014–11–20
  27. By: Petr Macek (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nábreží 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic); Petr Teply (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nábreží 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic)
    Abstract: The 2008/2009 global crisis highlighted the vulnerabilities and inter-dependencies in the financial system including the global over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives markets, where significant counterparty credit risk prevails. In this paper, we deal with risk under Basel III banking regulation and provide credit valuation adjustment (CVA) modelling, which is a measure of the market value of counterparty credit risk. We use simulated data to develop a stress test model to determine the impact of counterparty credit risk on bank capital regulatory requirements. We developed six scenarios of different interest rate levels and from these scenarios we computed the exposure levels and CVA. Consequently, based on CVA modelling, we estimate the impact of an interest rate hike on portfolios of the top 3 Czech banks (Èeská spoøitelna, ÈSOB and Komerèní banka) and top 3 US banks (Bank of America, Citibank and JP Morgan). We conclude that i) the analyzed Czech banks report sufficient capital buffers to withstand increase of interest rates in any scenario; ii) the observed US banks with high exposure to derivatives would face significant capital shortfalls if the interest rates increase rapidly.
    Keywords: bank capital, Basel III, counterparty credit risk, credit valuation adjustment, market risk
    JEL: G21 G28 G32 G33
    Date: 2015–01
  28. By: Bartha, Zoltán
    Abstract: The objective of the paper is to examine whether the advantages and disadvantages mentioned in the literature of the flat rate income tax could be observed in Hungary. Personal income tax data provided by the Hungarian National Tax and Customs Administration was used to check the arguments. It was found that the flat tax indeed favours richer taxpayers, and because of the family tax credits, it heavily favours families with children. Tax revenues declined as tax rates were cut, while the GDP growth rate was close to stagnant. Both of these developments go against the expectations of the flat tax supporters, although it has to be mentioned that the changes were made in the midst of a European- and world-wide depression, which could have distorted the pure effects of the new tax code. Although in many countries the flat rate tax was a positive signal for investors boosting foreign direct investments, the Hungarian government introduced extra taxes on some of the transnational companies in order to balance the budget (and compensate for the lost personal income tax revenues), which meant that there was a decline in the mood of the investors. There is some indication that some illegal activities are shifted to the legal domain: the ratio of those tax reporters who earned an annual income of HUF 2 million or higher has gone from 62.5% to 66.6% in the period of 2010-12.
    Keywords: flat rate income tax, Hungary, tax statistics, income distribution
    JEL: E64 H24
    Date: 2014–09
  29. By: Bercu, Florentin
    Abstract: This paper analyses the recent evolution of Romanian modern agricultural cooperatives. The purpose is to present a synthesis of the current study to have a real starting point and lay the foundations according to which appropriate measures may be taken for the organisation of food producers into agricultural cooperatives and for making efficient the Romanian food sector. Although in our country, there is still a reticence about the cooperatives due to the history, especially among those who are over 45 years old the mentality of farmers has started to change, becoming aware of the importance of association. In the agricultural cooperatives in Romania, there have been considerable evolutions in comparison with the financial years 2011 and 2012. The number of agricultural cooperatives has increased in only one year by 26%, the turnover has increased by 59%, reaching lei 292,092,239, and the number of employees has increased by 50%. Unfortunately, in the top of Romanian agricultural cooperatives, there are only agricultural cooperatives and cooperative companies which carry out input purchase and obtained raw material sale services (cereals, industrial crops, livestock, etc.) by the members, unlike the Occidental ones where the collection/storage/processing and common marketing services are predominant due to which they obtain high value added products. The small and average producers in the Romanian food sector must understand that without a reform aiming at making efficient the professional organisations with economic purpose and their merger into efficient agricultural cooperatives, our agriculture shall continue to live from its past glory.
    Keywords: agricultural cooperatives, Romanian agricultural sector, agricultural policies, evolution
    JEL: Q13 R12
    Date: 2014–11–20
  30. By: Dmitry Kulikov; Karsten Staehr
    Abstract: This paper ascertains the determinants of household saving in Estonia based on a microeconometric analysis of household budget surveys from 2002 to 2005. Higher income leads to more saving, but the effect is largest for unanticipated income shocks. Ownership of real estate does not affect saving, while possession of durable goods like cars is associated with lower savings. A number of variables reflecting the households' financial exposure are of importance. Deposits, other forms of financial assets and access to liquidity reduce household saving. Surprisingly, debt and leasing liabilities and existing debt servicing payments also lead to lower savings. Young and in particular older households have a higher propensity to save than middle-aged households, while higher education is associated with lower savings. The results are robust to changes in the specification of the saving measure and the choice of estimation method.
    Keywords: household saving, saving hypotheses, financial exposure
    JEL: D12 D14 D22
    Date: 2015–02–03
  31. By: Mihaela Simionescu (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy, Bucharest)
    Abstract: The necessity of improving the forecasts accuracy grew in the context of actual economic crisis, but few researchers were interested till now in finding out some empirical strategies to improve their predictions. In this article, for the inflation rate forecasts on the horizon 2010-2012, we proved that the one-step-ahead forecasts based on updated AR(2) models could be substantially improved by generating new predictions using Monte Carlo method and bootstrap technique to simulate the models’ coefficients. In this article we introduced a new methodology of constructing the forecasts, by using the limits of the bias-corrected-accelerated bootstrap intervals for the initial data series of the variable to predict. After evaluating the accuracy of the new forecasts, we found out that all the proposed strategies improved the initial AR(2) forecasts and even the predictions of two experts in forecasting. Our own method based on the lower limits of BCA intervals generated the best forecasts. In the forecasting process based on AR models the uncertainty analysis was introduced, by calculating, under the hypothesis of normal distribution, the probability that the predicted value exceeds a critical value.
    Keywords: accuracy, forecasts, Monte Carlo method, bootstrap technique, biased-corrected-accelerated bootstrap intervals
    JEL: C15 C53
    Date: 2015–02

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