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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Gourdon, Julien ; Hering, Laura ; Monjon, Stéphanie ; Poncet, Sandra |
| Abstract: | Compared to most countries, China’s value-added tax (VAT) system is not neutral and makes it less advantageous to export a product than to sell it domestically, as export - ers may not receive a complete refund on the domestic VAT they have paid on their inputs. However, the large and frequent changes to the VAT refunds which are offered to exporters have been led China to be accused of providing its firms with an unfair advantage in global trade. We use city-specific export-quantity data at the HS6-product level over the 2003-12 period to assess how changes in these VAT rebates have affected Chinese export performance. Our identification strategy relies on triple difference estimates that exploit an eligibility rule which disqualifies processing trade with sup - plied materials from these rebates. We find that changes in VAT rebates have significant export repercussions: eligible export quantity for a given city-HS6 pair rises by 6.5% following a one percentage-point increase in the VAT rebate. This magnitude yields a better understanding of the strong resistance of Chinese exports during the global recession, in which export rebates increased substantially. |
| Keywords: | VAT System; export tax; export performance; China; |
| JEL: | F10 F14 O14 |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dau:papers:123456789/14545&r=tra |
| By: | Felipe, Jesus (Asian Development Bank ); Dacuycuy, Connie (Ateneo de Manila University ); Lanzafame, Matteo (Università degli Studi di Messina ) |
| Abstract: | From 1962 to 2013, the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC’s)agricultural employment share declined from 82% to 31%. The transfer of workers out of low-productivity agriculture is a fundamental pillar of the PRC’s aspirations to progress and eventually become a high-income economy. We hypothesize that the drivers of this decline have been the increase in income per capita, industrial value added, foreign direct investment, and domestic credit. We use an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model to test the strong exogeneity of the regressors so that we can use it for forecasting. Results indicate that the share of employment in agriculture in the PRC will decline to about 24% by 2020, the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016–2020). We also estimate that the PRC’s employment share will reach 5%, the share observed in today’s rich economies, by 2042–2048. |
| Keywords: | agricultural employment; People’s Republic of China; structural transformation |
| JEL: | O13 O53 Q10 |
| Date: | 2014–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0419&r=tra |
| By: | Rolf Aaberge ; Kai Liu ; Yu Zhu (Statistics Norway ) |
| Abstract: | Despite macroeconomic evidence pointing to a negative aggregate consumption response due to political uncertainty, few papers have used microeconomic panel data to analyze how households adjust their consumption after an uncertainty shock. We study household savings and expenditure adjustment from an unexpected, large-scale and rapidly evolving political shock that occurred largely in May 1989 in Beijing, China. Using monthly micro panel data from a sample of the Urban Household Survey, we present evidence that a surge in political uncertainty resulted in significant temporary increases in savings among urban households in China. Our estimates also suggest the channel through which increase in savings is achieved: the increase in savings is driven by reductions in semi-durable expenditure and frequency of major durable adjustment. The uncertainty effect is more pronounced among older, wealthier, and more socially advantaged households. We interpret our findings using existing models of precautionary behavior. By focusing on time variation in uncertainty, our identification strategy avoids many of the potential problems in empirical studies of precautionary savings such as self-selection and life-cycle effects. Our findings on the channel of adjustment also coincide with the predictions from models on consumer durables adjustment combined with income uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | China; household savings; uncertainty |
| JEL: | D91 J3 E21 |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssb:dispap:793&r=tra |
| By: | Serebrennikov, Dmytro ; Glauben, Thomas ; Goetz, Linde |
| Abstract: | This study employs the econometric framework of price transmission to analyze spatial integration of major wheat growing markets in Russia. Russian government frequently intervenes to regulate trade relations by restricting export of wheat abroad in the periods of deficit of supply. Different non-linear models are used to capture the impact of intervention measures. The results show that in isolation from global markets, Russian export-oriented wheat producers increase their presence inside the country and domestic trade becomes more active. As a result, government interventions lead to reduction of wheat deficits. |
| Keywords: | Demand and Price Analysis, |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae14:182754&r=tra |
| By: | Harry WU ; Ximing YUE ; George G. ZHANG |
| Abstract: | This paper documents the procedures in constructing China's employment and compensation metrics and measuring labor input in the Chinese economy. We begin with discussions of major conceptual, coverage, and classification problems in the official labor statistics and then propose strategies to solve the problems using a labor indexing methodology. This methodology allows the human capital attributes of any employed person weighted by their specific costs and the sum of the costs is controlled by the national income accounts. It guides our basic data work to adjust breaks, fill gaps, and restore consistencies in annual statistics and in benchmark marginal matrices. We use the iterative proportional filling (IPF) approach to obtain full-dimensioned employment and compensation matrices for benchmarks and, based on which, we then construct the matrices in time series. We show that China's total (cost-weighted) labor input grew by 4.1% per annum in 1980-2010, of which changes in quality and in hours worked made almost equal contributions. We also find that nearly half of the 2% quality improvement was attributable to changes in the industrial structure, followed by changes in education attainment and age structure. |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:15005&r=tra |
| By: | Wang, Nanying ; Houston, Jack |
| Abstract: | The price variability of agricultural commodities reached record levels in 2008, and again more recently in 2010, raising concerns about this increased price volatility would be temporal or structural. The Chinese soybean futures market is the second largest in the world, after the CME group, in terms of trading volume. There are two soybean futures contracts in China: non-GM and GM. Due to its dominant market share of trading volume, the non-GM contract is the representative of China’s soybean markets (He and Wang, 2011). However, with the emergence of the GM soybean contract in 2004, the components of non-GM futures price volatility might have changed. This study examines the volatility determinants as well as seasonality of non-GM and GM soybean futures prices traded in Dalian Commodity Exchange from 2005 to 2014. Also, we test the comovement between these two soybeans markets. We analyze the volatility by incorporating changes in important economic variables into the Dynamic Conditional Correlation-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (DCC-GARCH) model. This research provides statistical evidence that the futures prices of soybeans in China are being influenced by the increasing consumption of soybeans, the import quantity of soybean, the trading volume in futures market and weather. We also find spillover effect from non-GM to GM in soybean markets. A better understanding of the volatility determinants provides important additional information for various market participants, including commodity traders, hedgers, arbitrageurs, exchanges and regulatory agencies. |
| Keywords: | China, DCC-GARCH Model, time-varying correlation, macroeconomic, Agricultural Finance, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, O53, Q14, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea15:196775&r=tra |
| By: | Felipe, Jesus (Asian Development Bank ); Lanzafame, Matteo (Università degli Studi di Messina ); Zhuang, Juzhong (Asian Development Bank ) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC’s potential growth rate in 2012 at 8.7% and at 9.2% for the average of 2008–2012, about the same as the average actual growth rate for this period. This rate is the natural growth rate, that is, the rate consistent with a constant unemployment rate and stable inflation. The PRC’s natural growth rate displays a downward trend since 2006, when it peaked at 11.1%. Probably the Great Recession has been an important factor, although we argue that there are other factors. We show that the PRC’s potential growth rate is not demand constrained, in particular by the balance of payments. The PRC’s potential growth rate is determined by the supply side of the economy, in particular by: (i) changes in the structure of the economy, in particular in the share of industrial employment; (ii) the working-age population; (iii) the share of net exports in gross domestic product (GDP); (iv) export growth; (v) the share of foreign direct investment (FDI) in GDP; and (vi) human capital accumulation. |
| Keywords: | balance of payments constrained growth rate; Kalman filter; natural growth rate; Okun’s Law; People’s Republic of China; potential growth rate |
| JEL: | O14 O47 O53 |
| Date: | 2014–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0418&r=tra |
| By: | Zheng Liu (FRBSF ); Feng Huang (Shanghai University of Finance and Economics ); Dongming Zhu (Shanghai University of Finance and Economics ); Hui He (Shanghai University of Finance and Econo ) |
| Abstract: | We use China's large-scale reform of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in the late 1990s as a natural experiment to identify and quantify the importance of precautionary saving for wealth accumulation. Before the reform, SOE workers enjoyed the same job security as government employees. Since the reform, over 35 million SOE workers have been laid off, although government employees kept their "iron rice bowl." The change in unemployment risk for SOE workers relative to that of government employees before and after the reform provides a clean identification of income uncertainty that helps us estimate the importance of precautionary saving. In our estimation, we correct a self-selection bias in occupational choice and disentangle the effects of uncertainty from pessimistic outlook. We obtain evidence that precautionary savings account for at least one-third of the wealth accumulation for SOE workers between 1995 and 2002. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed014:764&r=tra |
| By: | Lukiyanova, Anna ; Vishnevskaya, Nina |
| Abstract: | [Final remarks] Our findings suggest that the decentralization reform of the MW setting mechanism accelerated the growth of the wage floor for Russian workers and narrowed the variation in the minima between regions. At the same time, the coexistence of the federal and regional minimum wages has led to new imbalances. All these mean that the reform of the minimum wage setting mechanism in Russia cannot be considered final and further steps are required for better functioning of this institute. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:udewwd:206&r=tra |
| By: | Jana Hortová (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nábreží 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic ); Ladislav Krištoufek (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nábreží 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic ; Institute of Information Theory and Automation, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Pod Vodarenskou Vezi 4, 182 00, Prague, Czech Republic ) |
| Abstract: | In the Czech Republic, water prices have been steadily increasing while water consumption has been decreasing during the last decades. A great deal of literature is devoted to the price elasticity of water demand but to the best of our knowledge, no similar study has been devoted entirely to the Czech Republic. In the paper, we examine the short and long-run price elasticities of water demand in the Czech Republic between years 2000 and 2011. We find that the water demand is inelastic (lower than one) with respect to water price regardless of the time period and the income elasticity is on the edge of statistical signicance. Our inferences are in line with previous findings.of the estimation setup, the wavelet-based estimator may become an attractive robust alternative to the traditional methods |
| Keywords: | water consumption, price elasticity, income elasticity |
| JEL: | C54 Q25 Q53 |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2014_38&r=tra |
| By: | Falkowski, Jan |
| Abstract: | While transacting parties may find ways to avoid adverse effects of weak contracting institutions, radical reform reorganising the system of exchange can be very costly. We illustrate this by studying the economic consequences of the dislocation of the Polish dairy supply chain during transition. Examining a natural experiment between two different modes of governance (bureaucratic and market-based), we provide evidence that the disorganisation of vertical linkages between upstream and downstream producers negatively affected output. Our most conservative estimates suggests that the dislocation to inter-firm relationships accounted for approximately 20% of the fall in milk output observed in the early-transition phase. |
| Keywords: | supply chain reorganisation, disorganisation effects, transition, Poland, agriculture, milk, Industrial Organization, |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae14:182713&r=tra |
| By: | Bîrhală, Brînduşa ; Möllers, Judith |
| Abstract: | Searching for viable rural innovations that serve the health concerns of consumers and the economic needs of small-scale farms in Eastern Europe, this study deals with Community Supported Agriculture (CSA). We are interested in the costs and benefits for both sides involved, the farmers and consumers, when entering into a direct, trust-based market relationship in the form of CSA. The study is theoretically embedded in the concept of solidarity economy. The analysis is based on three cases of farmers pioneering CSA in Romania by offering organic vegetables to their local contracted consumers in the Western part of the country. Our results reveal certain elements that are supportive for the involvement in CSA. Consumers follow more value-based considerations, they are for example convinced of the importance of a healthy diet and of the damaging effects of synthetic agricultural inputs. For farmers the CSA partnership is attractive as long as it offers a price premium and market access. Both, farmers and consumers compensate for market failures when involving in CSA partnerships. |
| Keywords: | Community Supported Agriculture, organic farming, Romania, solidarity economy, rural development, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Public Economics, |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae14:182666&r=tra |
| By: | Teng, Zhijing ; Seale, James Jr. ; Bai, Junfei ; Wahl, Thomas I. |
| Abstract: | This study investigates factors influencing household decisions on food away from home (FAFH) consumption with special interest given to the effects of employer subsidized meals on FAFH consumption. Using data from a new urban food consumption survey and collected by the Center for Chinese Agriculture Policy from 2009 to 2012 in 10 cities, a double-hurdle model is utilized to estimate the demand for FAFH as a whole and by type of facility (restaurant, fast-food outlet, and other facilities). The key findings suggest that households with at least one member receiving subsidized meals are more likely to participate in the FAFH market, but these households spend less when they dine out than their counterparts without employer subsidized meals. |
| Keywords: | Subsidized meal, Food-away-from-home, Urban China, Double-hurdle model, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, D12, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea15:196810&r=tra |
| By: | Wang, Haiyan ; Malaga, Jaime |
| Abstract: | China is one of the world's fastest growing economies showing an impressive growth on consumption of animal protein which has resulted on a rapidly increasing derived demand for feed grains. Corn is the key feed crop for China, however, the government policies have boosted domestic corn prices above international levels. Some important facts signal that China is becoming a large market of feed grain where sorghum is a close and cheaper substitute for corn. This paper used a derived demand model to estimate the parameters of China’s sorghum feed domestic consumption. Results of this paper will be an important reference for international sorghum trading countries, especially for United States, which is one of the largest sorghum producing and exporting countries. |
| Keywords: | China, Sorghum, Demand, Feed, Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea15:196866&r=tra |
| By: | Glauben, Thomas ; Imamverdiyev, Nizami ; Perekhozhuk, Oleksandr ; Prehn, Sören |
| Abstract: | Due to an increase in export shares of Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine (KRU) the competition in global wheat market has become more intense during the last decade. Hence, this study aims to analyze the market structure of KRU over the period 2004-2010. By using the gravity trade model and Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimation method, this study confirms that the emergence of KRU increases the competition in international wheat market. The other main finding is that there is no evidence of market power of KRU wheat exporters over the South Caucasian and Central Asian countries. |
| Keywords: | gravity model, exchange rate, perfect competition, Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood estimation, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae14:182949&r=tra |
| By: | Konrad Sobanski (Poznan University of Economics, Poland ) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to evaluate the significance of the valuation effect in determining the dynamics of the net international investment position of CEE economies. For this purpose an analysis of BoP and IIP time series for the four largest CEE economies (Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Romania) for the years 2005-2013 was carried out. The exercise revealed that the valuation effect (VE) is, in the short run, the key determinant of net IIP changes (for most observed years). Nevertheless, in the long-run its influence decreases as valuation gains and losses tend to cancel each other out. As the VE is relatively volatile, it is important to analyse its dynamics over the mid and long-term when evaluating the IIP. The significance of the VE for determining net IIP dynamics turned out to be non-investment-type specific because valuations of both the short-term and long-term investments contributed in a large part to the change in the net IIP. Similarities in the dynamics of the VE in CEE countries prove that the VE depends to a large extent on the general price fluctuations in financial markets that nowadays exhibit strong correlations across countries. |
| Keywords: | international finance, valuation effect, international investment position, Central and Eastern European economies |
| JEL: | F36 F41 G15 |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2014:no45&r=tra |
| By: | Dharmasena, Senarath ; Wang, Jing ; Bessler, David A. |
| Abstract: | The consumption of milk in China has been increasing over past two decades. Currently, China does not produce enough milk to meet this increase in demand. Consequently a large volume of milk is imported. In this study, import demand for milk in China is explored using demand systems approach formulated through a vector error correction model (VECM). Additionally, import market integration is explored using contemporaneous causality structures developed through artificial intelligence and Direct Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) applied to innovations of VECM. Objectives of this study are to (1) Develop a VECM and test price homogeneity in the cointegration space; (2) Estimate almost ideal demand system model where prices are expressed in relative prices; (3) Calculate Chinese import demand elasticities for milk; and (4) Model import market integration using DAGs. Annual import volume (lbs) and total value ($US) of milk imported to China from Australia, New Zealand, United States and rest of the world, from 1992–2013 are collected from UN COMTRADE database. Calculated milk import demand elasticities shed light on the sensitivity of milk imports to changes in milk price of exporting country. Causality structure based off of innovations of VECM will allow us identify import market integration patterns. Preliminary results from causality structures reveal that the import share from the rest of the world is endogenous, while that of the United States, Australia and New Zealand was found to be weakly exogenous. |
| Keywords: | China milk demand, Directed acyclic graphs, dynamics, import demand, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, F14, C81, |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea15:196792&r=tra |
| By: | Borodin, Konstantin ; Strokov, Anton |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this article is to investigate the effect of differences in the inflation rates of trade-partner countries on their foreign trade patterns. The results of the analysis of a simple trade model served as the basis for an empirical study of Russia's foreign trade. For the purposes of experimental verification, we built Russia's export and import gravity models, using trade data for 2005-2012, as well as indicators reflecting the ratio of inflation rates in Russia and its trade-partner countries by the main commodity groups (inflation data for 1995-2012). The results of the empirical verification have basically confirmed the conclusions derived from the trade model analysis: Russia intensifies its export of fuel and raw-material commodities to countries with lower inflation rates and, simultaneously, increases its import of engineering, chemical, and agricultural products from countries with lower inflation rates. |
| Keywords: | trade pattern, inflation, gravity model, Russia, International Relations/Trade, F14, E31, |
| Date: | 2014–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iamf14:195708&r=tra |
| By: | Esenaliev, Damir ; Gregory Kisunko ; Kisunko, Gregory |
| Abstract: | The paper investigates determinants of civic participation in local budget processes in rural areas in the Kyrgyz Republic by using data from the Life in Kyrgyzstan survey, conducted in 2012. The analysis of the data suggests that although civic awareness and interest in local budget processes is relatively high, the participation rate in local budgeting processes is low. The paper also shows that interest, awareness, and participation are positively associated with the age, education, employment, risk-taking attitudes, trust, and social capital of respondents. The paper documents that unawareness and lack of participation are largely related to being female, of non-Kyrgyz ethnic origin, inactive in the labor market, recent internal migrants, and residents of communities with poor infrastructure. |
| Keywords: | Debt Markets,Housing&Human Habitats,Governance Indicators,Knowledge for Development,Population Policies |
| Date: | 2015–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7154&r=tra |
| By: | Beata Wozniak-Jechorek (Poznañ University of Economics ) |
| Abstract: | The article will focus on regional diversity of the Polish Labor Market from institutional perspective. The Polish Labor Market is geographically diverse in terms of unemployment and employment rates, and also in terms of economic development. At the end of 2013 the difference between the lowest and the highest unemployment rate in the Polish regions was 12.1% (Wielkopolska located in the West Poland has unemployment rate of 9.6% and Warmia - Mazury in the East has unemployment of 21.7%). The question arises whether this difference comes from the structural or institutional sources? The paper will describe the character of Polish Labor Market whereas in the second part, it will trace the impact of institutional variables such as real wage, Kaitz index and Gender gap on the regional unemployment rate in 2002-2012 in Poland. |
| Keywords: | institutional economics, labor market, institutional unemployment, labor market’s institutions |
| JEL: | B15 B25 B52 J08 |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2014:no54&r=tra |
| By: | Katiuscia Vaccarini (University of Macerata ) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether and to what extent psychic distance (PD) is considered by scholars as specific determinant of inbound and outbound foreign direct investments (FDI) in China. The finding of this study, which is a systematic literature review show that PD as a variable of FDI determinants seems to be under-investigated. The difficulty in quantifying the variable in international business might be one of the reasons. Nevertheless, the literature does raise awareness on distance issues and its multi-dimensions since it first appeared. Besides, the most applicable indexes elaborated by international business scholars are based on Hofstede’s work, whose results are used both in psychology and management studies, pinpointing its interdisciplinary nature. This paper aims to systematize the limited and fragmented literature about non-tangible perceptions of distance between home and host economies this paper contributes in raising awareness . However, as part of a wider European Union project the ultimate results of the paper have not been leaked yet. This study provides useful insights and practical implications for international scholars regarding a more comprehensive review of PD, for managers in terms of raising awareness on PD and of the foreign environment (opportunities and difficulties which they are experiencing in the market context) as well as setting up and strengthening long-term cooperation between Europe and China and finally, policy makers on the issue of trade and investment flows between Europe and China, key barriers which affect companies and which require action at political and institutional level in order to ensure that opportunities are fully exploited. |
| Keywords: | psychic distance, China, FDI, determinants of FDI. |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cme:wpaper:1403&r=tra |
| By: | Cechura, Lukas ; Hockmann, Heinrich |
| Abstract: | The paper analyses the food processing industry in Visegrád countries. In particular, it deals with the analysis of heterogeneity in technology and efficiency. The introduced theoretical framework allows to capture inter- and intrasectoral differences in technology as well as the country specifics. The results show that both intersectoral heterogeneity and heterogeneity among firms are an important characteristic of EU food processing industry. Moreover, the country specific effects were pronounced for Czech, Hungarian and Polish dairy sector, Czech feedstuff sector, Polish, Hungarian and Slovak slaughtering sector. Moreover, we found that on average the food processing companies highly exploit their production possibilities. However, some food processing companies are falling behind. This holds for Slaughtering and Dairy sector in all Visegrád countries. |
| Keywords: | Visegrád countries, food processing, heterogeneity, technology, efficiency., Productivity Analysis, |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae14:182662&r=tra |
| By: | Daniel Poon |
| Abstract: | A revival in South-South economic relations has raised the possibility of a shift in global power with profound implications for economic progress and poverty reduction in the developing world. This discussion paper delves behind the headline numbers to examine the underlying factors driving South- South relations and areas of strategic developmental cooperation. For now, South-South economic flows are being driven by China and its ability to deploy an unorthodox growth model that tilts the economy in favour of investment, which is crucial to its ambitious climb up the industrial value chain. Five key sectors (food, fertilizer, cement, steel and machinery) outlined by Arthur Lewis are used to assess China’s economic trajectory, which clearly remains a work in progress, but shows signs of indigenous technological capabilities taking root – particularly in medium technology capital goods industries. The gap between China’s industrial ambitions and its current capabilities provides a strategic opening for other developing countries to bargain for enhanced opportunities for domestic investment, learning, technical change and structural transformation. At the same time, China’s “real-time” formulation and practice of industrial policy processes are a source of inspiration for other developing countries searching for an alternative growth path. In a post-crisis setting, such demonstrations act as a useful template for re-thinking development priorities and to gradually begin re-casting economic policies within a national framework more conducive to catch-up and self-sustaining growth.. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unc:dispap:218&r=tra |
| By: | Zhuravleva, Elena |
| Abstract: | At present time, the competitiveness of region strategy in agriculture is unknown. There are not methodology of the evaluation it as a complex of the definitions and criteria, as the ways of the research the types of management decisions for the increasement present level of the region product security. |
| Keywords: | the competitiveness, the districts of Russia south, the agriculture, the matrix model., Community/Rural/Urban Development, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae14:182857&r=tra |
| By: | Luo, Tianyuan ; Escalante, Cesar |
| Abstract: | Changes in agricultural population can significantly influence the progress of mechanization, which provides efficient momentum to the further development of agriculture. We examine the effect of the declining agricultural population on mechanization and determine the variables that have decisive power over mechanical adoption decisions. This analysis of a panel data of top six out-migration provinces in China under a fixed effect model, we find that the overly fast and unusual decline in agricultural population actually slowed down the progress of mechanization, and the many years of large scale out-migration encouraged by government actually jeopardized sustainable agricultural development. Results underscore the need for considerable attention on the growth of annual farm incomes and agricultural products import that could have substantial effects on agricultural mechanization decisions. |
| Keywords: | agricultural population, mechanization, farm exit, import, Consumer/Household Economics, Labor and Human Capital, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea15:196791&r=tra |
| By: | Wang, Nanying ; Houston, Jack |
| Abstract: | China adopted a mandatory labeling policy of Genetically Modified (GM) food products in 2002. The strategy of separating trading was intended by Chinese regulators to protect domestic non-GMO production, provide non-GM soybean growers a higher selling price, and facilitate marketing. On December 22, 2004, the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) introduced a separate futures contract for No. 2 soybeans, which includes GM soybeans. With this change, the No. 1 soybean futures contract defaulted to a non-GM contract. Parcell (2001) defines the difference between the prices of non-GM and GM soybean futures contract soybeans as the price premium for non-GM soybeans. An intervention analysis is used to test the effects of the events on the price premium for non-GM soybeans in each sub-period. We investigate the impacts of three events—two contract specification changes in 2005 and 2010 and one grain law implementation in 2012—focusing on both the direction and size of their impacts. In conclusion the contract specification change from the DCE for the soybean futures contract did affect the price premium between the GM and non-GM soybean futures contracts. Therefore, these two cases of changes can be considered as successful interventions. Hence, there appeared to be informational efficiency in the market. It is also found the law issue has permanently increased the price premium for non-GM soybeans. Studying the market response linkages between the two soybean futures markets is helpful for understanding whether the newly opened GM soybean futures market transmits price information effectively. |
| Keywords: | China soybeans, GMO, non-GMO, Intervention analysis, Impulse response function, Agricultural Finance, Financial Economics, O53, Q14, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea15:196842&r=tra |
| By: | Tomasz Norek (University of Szczecin, Poland ); Daniel Luis Arenhardt (Federal University of Santa Maria, Brasil ) |
| Abstract: | The basic goal of this article is an attempt to conduct comparative analysis of innovation determinants in companies of small and medium enterprises sector in Brazil and Poland. The comparison shall enable evaluation which determinants stimulate and which are barriers to innovativeness development in the SME sector in the researched countries. Additionally, such comparison shall indicate if and in what way the economical potentials, cultural differences and different historical conditions of the economic development of the researched countries influence the determinants of the innovative activity of the SME sector. The Authors put forward the following research hypothesis: H1: The determinants forming the innovative potential are similar for Brazilian and Polish companies of SME sector. In order to examine the hypothesis, the Authors have browsed the world literature on the subject of innovative actions determinants in companies with a special consideration of SME sector companies, they have presented the present condition of innovativeness in SME sector companies in Brazil and Poland (an Internet questionnaire has been used in the research) and they have conducted own empirical researches on the determinants influencing the innovativeness level. The received results have been subject to basic statistical comparative analysis and on this basis with the logical induction the Authors have made conclusions on the determinants of innovative activity in researched companies. The article includes the results of all the empirical researches conducted by the Authors in the years 2009-2013 and generally available data considering the innovativeness level in the researched countries. |
| Keywords: | innovative SMEs; determinants of innovation activity; SMEs in Brazil and Poland |
| JEL: | O10 O30 O50 O57 |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2014:no41&r=tra |
| By: | Jacek Adam Zaucha (Institute for Development, Sopot, Poland, University of Gdansk, Faculty of Economics, Department of Macroeconomics, Gdańsk, Poland ); Tomasz Komornicki (Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland ) |
| Abstract: | The paper presents the results of research on the integration of the various dimensions of development in the Polish provinces with particular emphasis on territorial capital and territorial cohesion. The paper presents to what extent and how the Polish regions (voivodship) managed to achieve territorial cohesion paradigm combining spatial development and socio-economic development. It is based on the results of a survey conducted with the services responsible for the broader development of the regions (mostly departments of the Marshal Offices). The study found that the representatives of regional authorities, have a relatively good understanding of the issues of territorial cohesion, but their understanding of the concept is generally narrower than the theoretical studies. Many of them considered territorial cohesion not as a separate goal but as a vehicle of achieving to social and economic cohesion. While at the conceptual level (defining territorial cohesion) most regions have emphasized the role of endogenous growth factors, this has been slightly abandoned at the policy programming stage. In programming of intraregional policies the more traditional approach dominates. Regions usually delimitate different types of areas. This takes place generally on the basis of negative criteria (e.g. problem areas). Characteristic is the lack of an integrated approach. Territory is not treated as a way of policy integration or as a chance to overcome sectoral divisions. It is rather a tool to achieve other goals. But the study also, shows the evolution of the approach (forced mainly by EU regulations), which gives rise to a better policy integration with regard to various types of territories at the regional level. The article uses the results of the project financed by the Polish National Science Centre “Concept of the territorial cohesion in cohesion policy. Implications for Economic Growth "(number 2012/05 / B / HS4 / 04212). |
| Keywords: | integrated territorial development, territorial capital, territorial cohesion |
| JEL: | R11 R12 R58 |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iro:wpaper:1403&r=tra |
| By: | Kozar, Maja ; Pintar, Marjeta ; Volk, Tina |
| Abstract: | The paper outlines the most noticeable economic effects of the 2004 accession of Slovenia to the European Union (EU) on its agri-food sector. The main national statistical data are used to compare the situation in the Slovenian agri-food sector in the pre- and postaccession period. The main expected effects were related to joining the vast Common market through increased market competition and opportunities, as well as through the structural and organizational adjustments of a relatively small agri-food sector to it. Unexpectedly, these adjustments were halted in general, resulting most evidently in the increased export of raw agri-food products and import of processed products. Slovenian agri-food chain, especially the food industry, remains heavily challenged by its relatively poor competitive and organizational performance, both even more pronounced a decade after the EU accession. |
| Keywords: | agriculture, agricultural policy, EU accession, Slovenia, accession effects, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae14:187278&r=tra |
| By: | Magdalena Szyszko (Wyzsza Szkola Bankowa w Poznaniu, Poland ); Karolina Tura (Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Poznaniu, Poland ) |
| Abstract: | Producing and revealing inflation forecasts is believed to be the best way of implementing a forward-looking monetary policy. The article focuses on inflation forecast targeting (IFT) at the Czech National Bank (CNB) in terms of its efficiency in shaping consumers’ inflation expectations. The goal of the study is to verify accuracy of the inflation forecasts, and their influence on inflation expectations. The research is divided into four stages. At the first stage central bank credibility is examined. At the second stage – accuracy of the inflation forecasts. The next step covers a qualitative analysis of IFT implementation. Finally the existence of the interdependences of inflation forecast, optimal policy paths and inflation expectations are analyzed. Credibility of the central bank, accuracy of the forecast and decision-making procedures are the premises for the existence of relationship between forecasts and expectations. The research covers July 2002 - end of 2013. Its methodology includes the qualitative analysis of decision-making of the CNB, quantitative methods (Kia and Patron formula, MAE forecasts errors, quantification of expectations, non-parametric statistics). The results show the existence of interdependences between inflation forecasts and expectations of moderate strength. The preconditions of such interdependences are partially fulfilled. The research opens the field for cross-country comparisons and for quantification of IFT implementation. |
| Keywords: | inflation forecasts, inflation forecast targeting, policy path, inflation expectations |
| JEL: | E52 E58 E61 |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2014:no49&r=tra |
| By: | Grochowska, Renata ; Manko, Stanislaw |
| Abstract: | The paper investigates the trends in the Polish farm incomes between 2004-2011 and some potential changes in the 2015-2020 period. The analysis was prepared based on the Polish FADN database, focusing on field crops, dairy cows, pigs and mixed farms. Our study showed that the production costs increased much faster than value of production in most of the farms in 2004-2011, what resulted in decreasing net income getting from the market. The observed growth in income followed mainly from an increase in the amount of direct payments. The simulations for 2015-2020 indicated a continuation of this tendency in the Polish farms. |
| Keywords: | farm incomes, EU enlargement, Consumer/Household Economics, |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae14:182845&r=tra |
| By: | Payam Elhami ; Mahdi Ghodsi (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw ); Oliver Reiter ; Sandor Richter (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw ); Roman Römisch (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw ); Roman Stöllinger (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw ) |
| Abstract: | Graph of the month Oil price and exchange rate of the Russian rouble, 2008-2014 (p. 1) Opinion corner Is Jean-Claude Juncker's EUR 315 billion European investment plan the proper answer to the EU's anaemic economic performance? (by Sándor Richter, Roman Römisch and Roman Stöllinger; pp. 2-4) How large should the EU budget be from the new Member States’ perspective? (by Sándor Richter; pp. 5-8) International economic sanctions the case of Iran (by Mahdi Ghodsi and Payam Elhami; pp. 9-13) The input-output table as a network (by Oliver Reiter; pp. 14-18) Recommended reading (p. 19) Statistical Annex Monthly and quarterly statistics for Central, East and Southeast Europe (pp. 20-41) |
| Keywords: | oil price, exchange rate, Russian rouble, EU budget, investment, grants, loans, EU budget, sanctions, energy, security of energy supply, export and import prices, multiregional input-output table, network, random walk centrality, connectedness of an industrial sector |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:mpaper:mr:2015-01&r=tra |
| By: | Takács, István ; Takács-György, Katalin |
| Abstract: | The agriculture of the new member of the European Union joined 2004 was significantly behind the majority of the 15 former EU member countries both from technical and productivity perspectives. In the common market the competitiveness of products and producers is a key factor. One important factor of competitiveness is labour productivity, which can be divided into partial factors that could be the technical equipment and the productivity of those tools. The study examines the changes of these two partial productivity factors at the former EU member and at the group of countries integrated in 2004. |
| Keywords: | agriculture, technical supply, efficiency, competitiveness, disadvantage, Productivity Analysis, |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae14:182818&r=tra |
| By: | Ratinger, Tomáš ; Medonos, Tomáš ; Hruška, Martin |
| Abstract: | The objective of the poster paper is to identify factors of participation in investment support scheme and to assess economic and other effects of the measures 121 “Modernisation of Agricultural Holdings” and 123 “Increasing of value added” of the Rural Development Programme (RDP) 2007-2013 on the Czech farms. A particular attention is paid to the issues of participation in different measures, differentiated impacts of the supports according to the production conditions and deadweight. In general, the selected measures improved performance of supported farms. Evident differences are among impacts in the farm subsamples – in the sub-sample of farms with a higher density of ruminants the economic impacts are statistically significant while in the other case are not. |
| Keywords: | modernisation, value adding, counterfactual analysis, direct nearest neighbour matching, deadweight, Agricultural and Food Policy, |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae14:182927&r=tra |
| By: | Magdalena Kogut-Jaworska (Szczecin University, Poland ) |
| Abstract: | The smart specialisation is a new EU’s concept towards the regions. It assumes upgrading of innovation and competitivess basing on endogenic potential, in particular, in already existing branches of economy. Smart specialisations should, by definition concentrate economic resources on chosen priorities. Having a smart specialisation will be a pre-condition for access to the UE’s funds in the new financial perspective 2014-2020. Smart specialisation need to be clearly defined and only then can they contribute into economic growth combined with proper management over public financial means. The necessary pre-condition is to understand the very concept and to recognize the mechanism of identification and implementation. The expected pre-conditions also include a proper legal framework and its smart implementation through able application of administrative tools. The objective of the paper is to introduce and characterise assumptions for smart specialisations and to indicate at the progress of implementation and the necessary conditions required in Polish regions. Moreover, the paper reviews and analyses major European and national documents exposing the question of smart specialisations. The empiric part deals with identification and assessment of progress in the implementation of the concept into Polish regions. |
| Keywords: | smart specialisation, regional policy, economic development, public finance, UE financial policy |
| JEL: | G38 H70 O18 R11 |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2014:no34&r=tra |
| By: | Wąs, Adam ; Majewski, Edward ; Czekaj, Stefania |
| Abstract: | After a long debate between political bodies of the EU, the final decision about the shape of the CAP in the next programming period has been made. The initial proposal of the European Commission was very ambitious yet, after the announcement of its final version, there is a common belief that green requirements have been watered down. This paper presents the results of impact analysis based on the most recent proposition of CAP reform with a specific focus on “greening” of direct payments. It evaluates changes in the cropping structure and economic results of Polish farms from the perspective of the year 2020. For the analyses, the authors proposed an original farm typology using data taken from 10890 farms from FADN sampled in 2011. A farm optimization model with PMP technique was used to estimate potential effects of the reform for 218 types of Polish farms. The farm model results have been scaled-up to the country level. Results show that a majority of Polish farms are already complying with the new requirements. Adjustment of the remaining farms to the new requirements leads to only small changes in the cropping structure and has negligible impact on income generated by the Polish farm sector. |
| Keywords: | greening, CAP, farm income, Shannon Index, Positive Mathematical Programming, Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management, |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae14:182699&r=tra |
| By: | Nacka, Marina ; Simonovska, Ana ; Georgiev, Nenad ; Gjosevski, Dragan |
| Abstract: | We aim to give an overview of the different levels of commitment towards Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) among agri-food companies in the Republic of Macedonia so to emphasize its basic role in creating competitive market position. The low-level IPR committed companies were analyzed by specifying a fixed-effects model, and for the high-level IPR committed companies we used a single case study with a distinctive IP experience in permanently implementing innovation and marketing strategies. The results emphasize the importance of the companies’ IPR strategies for strengthening their market position. In fact, brand equity is created only through constant marketing investments. |
| Keywords: | IPR, competitive market position, IP assets, brand equity, marketing investments, Agribusiness, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae14:182859&r=tra |
| By: | Dorota Ciołek (Institute for Development, Sopot, Poland, University of Gdansk, Faculty of Economics, Department of Macroeconomics, Gdańsk, Poland ) |
| Abstract: | One of the key elements in territorial cohesion conception is idea of territorial capital in specific region. In this article we present an attempt of the territorial capital evaluation for Polish poviats (NTS 4) in period 2003-2011. The starting point was finding variables which in accurate way could reflect the level of such capital and for which official statistics for all regions are available. We implemented a concept of territorial keys (Boheme et al. 2011) according to which the most important components of the territorial capital are: accessibility, availability and quality of services of general economic interest, territorial capacities, the ability of regions to create economic and social networks and finally presence of functional regions. The broadest of these categories are territorial capacities, which include: territory-bound factors (industrial clusters etc.), wise management of cultural and natural assets, human capital and social capital. For each of the variables we present maps showing their spatial diversity in Polish poviats. In the case of variables for which during examined period significant changes were observed two maps are presented: for the beginning and for the last year. It allowed to observe the changes of analyzed categories in Polish poviats. |
| Keywords: | territorial capital, regional development, territorial statistics |
| JEL: | R11 R12 C10 |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iro:wpaper:1406&r=tra |
| By: | Agnieszka Matuszewska–Pierzynka (University of Lodz, Poland ) |
| Abstract: | The main objective of this paper is to present the results of empirical studies on net profit distribution in companies using state–owned enterprises against payment . The main research hypothesis states that the majority of companies using state–owned enterprises against payment waive their right to the dividend and transfer a major part of retained earnings to supplementary capital. The empirical investigation of the main hypothesis has been conducted among 21 companies based in Mazowieckie Province, which concluded privatisation agreements with the State Treasury in years 2000–2005. The analysis of net profit distribution in companies using state–owned enterprises against payment is based on data collected and processed by the author of the article from the National Court Register, for the period from the privatisation date of the surveyed enterprises to 2010, using measures of descriptive statistics. The paper consists of the following parts: the introduction, the essence of giving state–owned enterprise for use against payment, the characteristics of companies qualified to the research sample, net profit distribution policy in companies using state–owned enterprises against payment. Finally, it is concluded that over the first three years of operation every second company using a state–owned enterprise against payment did not pay a dividend transferring all of retained earnings to supplementary capital. |
| Keywords: | privatisation process, direct privatisation, using state–owned enterprise against payment, net profit distribution policy, pecking order theory |
| JEL: | G32 L33 |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2014:no39&r=tra |
| By: | Benedek, Zsófia ; Fertő, Imre ; Baráth, Lajos ; Tóth, József |
| Abstract: | The local food movement is rapidly evolving in Hungary. Three market types can be identified: traditional, farmers’ and organic markets. Results show that farmer- and farmspecific characteristics as well as attitudes greatly and variously influence the decision of small-scale farmers on finding the proper market type. A relatively young, educated and innovative farmer group is interested mostly in selling at farmers’ markets. The outcomes are important in the light of the coming EU funding schemes as small-scale farmers using different marketing channels may require targeted supporting frameworks and solutions. |
| Keywords: | short food supply chain, local food system, farmers’ market, organic farming, Farm Management, |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae14:182747&r=tra |
| By: | Bajramović, Sabahudin ; Nikolić, Aleksandra |
| Abstract: | Complexity of the political system in Bosnia and Herzegovina reflects to entire economy of the country, especially to sensitive sectors as agriculture. Current agricultural BIH policy managed on entity and Brcko District level faces numerous challenges and dilemmas. Apart from insufficiently clear commitment to CAP EU convergence, major dilemmas are those related to further shaping of institutional-regulatory framework as well as selection of strategic course of sector development. Having in mind lack of common BIH agricultural policy and sector institutional weaknesses, our intention is to answer following two questions: (i) does it reflect to direct support of producers and (ii) are BIH farmers in unequal and uncompetitive position? In order to analyze actual situation it was used APM tool (Agri-Policy Measures) developed within FAO-SWG project. Based on outputs of this analysis we made recommendations and suggestions on the way of proceeding in such circumstances. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural policy, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Budgetary support, Common Agricultural Policy, EU, Agricultural and Food Policy, Public Economics, |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae14:186675&r=tra |
| By: | Kazakova-Mateva, Yanka Kostadinova ; Peneva, Mariya ; Ivanova, Nedka |
| Abstract: | The EU Rural Development Policy framework is a result of complex interactions at different levels - European, national, regional and local. Ideally, the decision making process about its implementation should be shared by these different levels of governance. However, the implementation approaches vary between member states reflecting their individual governance models. This research examines the utilization of the ‘bottom-up’ approach for the development of visions for regional sustainability of agriculture and pathways to reach them in a model region in Central South Bulgaria – Bessaparski Hills area, which is a Natura 2000 zone, Important Bird Area and High Nature Value farmland. |
| Keywords: | Participatory Approach, Rural Policy Development, Regional Sustainability, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Political Economy, |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae14:182957&r=tra |
| By: | Bogdanov, Natalija |
| Abstract: | Policy objectives and measures of support to less favoured areas have undergone significant changes during the last reforms of the CAP. Regardless of changes in policy objectives and methods of its implementation, the LFA support remains one of the most important implementation mechanisms of rural development support. This paper aims to overview key issues and challenges of agricultural policy in Serbia related to less favoured areas and deprivileged regions, from the perspective of policy framework, budgetary expenditures and implementation mechanisms. Research indicates that Serbian agricultural policy got stuck in productivism ideologies, with insufficient focus on viability of mountain farming and capacity of LFA to cope with the transitional challenges. |
| Keywords: | LFA policy, regional diversity, Serbia, agricultural budgetary expenditures, Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Environmental Economics and Policy, Public Economics, |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae14:186679&r=tra |