nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2015‒01‒14
fifty-five papers chosen by
J. David Brown
United States Census Bureau

  1. Polarization or Upgrading? Evolution of Employment in Transitionary Russia By Gimpelson, Vladimir; Kapeliushnikov, Rostislav
  2. Foreign direct R&D investment in Central Europe: where do we stand? By Eric Rugraff
  3. Проблемы и перспективы cекьюритизации активов на российском рынке By Velikodnaya, Polina
  4. Greenhouse gas intensity of three main crops and implications for low-carbon agriculture in China By Wang, Wen; Guo, Liping; Li, Yingchun; Su, Man; Lin, Yuebin; De Perthuis, Christian; Ju, Xiaotang; Lin, Erda; Moran, Dominic
  7. The Dynamics Of Investment In Pre-Entry Coaching And The Returns From Private Tutoring In Russia By Ilya A. Prakhov
  8. Segmentation and informality in Vietnam: A Survey of Literature By Jean-Pierre Cling; Mireille Razafindrakoto; François Roubaud
  9. Who Demands Collective Action In An Imperfect Institutional Environment? A Case-Study Of The Professional Community Of Attorneys In Russia By Anton P. Kazun; Andrei A. Yakovlev
  10. What determines household income of ethnic minorities in North-West Mountains, Vietnam: A microeconometric analysis of household surveys By Tran, Quang Tuyen
  11. Методологічні проблеми фінансового управління в банківському секторі України: уроки кризи By Voloshyn, Ihor; Lubich, Oleksandr
  12. Factors Influencing the Selection of Waste Collection Companies by Municipalities – Are Municipal Decision Effective? By Jana Soukopová; Vojtìch Ficek
  13. Expropriation with Hukou Change: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment By Akgüc, Mehtap; Liu, Xingfei; Tani, Massimiliano
  14. Multi-dimensional Intertemporal Poverty in Rural China By Jing You; Sangui Wang; Laurence Roope
  15. The Birth Of An Entrepreneurial Board In Emerging Markets: A Russian Case By Alexander Libman; Tatiana G. Dolgopyatova; Andrey A. Yakovlev
  16. Program Diversification And Specialization In Russian Higher Education Institutions By Daria P. Platonova; Dmitry S. Semyonov
  17. Republic of Moldova: Second Post-Program Monitoring Discussions-Staff Report; Staff Statement; Press Release; Statement by the Executive Director By International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
  18. Youth Unemployment In Italy And Russia: Aggregate Trends And The Role Of Individual Determinants By Enrico Marelli; Elena S. Vakulenko
  19. Chinese and Indian Multinationals: A Firm-Level Analysis of their Investments in Europe By Amendolagine , Vito; Cozza , Claudio; Rabellotti , Roberta
  20. Modern Approaches To The “Regionalization” Of Federal Policy In Russian Higher Education By Oleg Leshukov; Mikhail Lisyutkin
  21. The Fluke Of Stochastic Volatility Versus Garch Inevitability : Which Model Creates Better Forecasts? By Valeria V. Lakshina
  22. Contextualizing Academic Performance In Russian Schools: School Characteristics, The Composition Of Student Body And Local Deprivation By Gordey A. Yasterbov; Alexey R. Bessudnov; Marina A. Pinskaya; Sergey G. Kosaretsky
  23. Russian Mutual Funds: Skill vs. Luck By Petr Parshakov
  24. The Effects Of Prenatal Testosterone On Adult Wages: Evidence From Russian Rlms Data And Measured 2d:4d Digit Ratios By John V.C. Nye; Maria M. Yudkevich; Ekaterina A. Orel; Ekaterina V. Kochergina
  25. Monetary Policy of Quantitative Easing at the Central Bank’s High Interest Rates By BLINOV, Sergey
  26. Socio-Psychological Capital, Values And Emigration Intentions Of Russian Youth By Sergey V. Chuvashov
  27. Export management and incomplete VAT rebates to exporters: the case of China By Sandra PONCET; Julien GOURDON; Laura HERING; Stéphanie MONJON
  28. Indicators Of Corruption In Public Procurement: The Example Of Russian Regions By Anna Balsevich; Elena Podkolzina
  29. Religiosity And Political Participation In Contemporary Russia: A Quantitative Analysis By Anna Y. Kulkova
  30. Opportunities for US-China Investments in Agricultural Innovation and New Technologies By Kimle, Kevin
  31. A large Bayesian vector autoregression model for Russia By Deryugina , Elena; Ponomarenko , Alexey
  32. Tourism Companies: Values And Norm. Profiles: The Case Of A Russian Tour Operator By Veronika I. Kabalina; Kira V. Reshetnikova; Marina D. Predvoditeleva
  33. 2D:4D and Life Outcomes: Evidence from the Russian RMLS Survey By John V.C. Nye; Maxim V. Bryukhanov; Sergiy S. Polyachenko
  34. The structural behavior of China–US trade flows By Cheung, Yin-Wong; Chinn , Menzie D.; Qian, Xingwang
  35. Does Accession to the European Union Foster Competition Policy? Country-level Evidence By Michael Böheim; Klaus S. Friesenbichler
  36. Returns to Education in China: A Meta-analysis By Sefa Awaworyi; Vinod Mishra
  37. Russians’ Participation In Cash Donations: Factors And Level Of Involvement By Irina Mersianova; Natalya Ivanova; Irina Korneeva
  38. Housing Property Rights and Subjective Wellbeing in Urban China By Zhiming Cheng; Stephen P. King; Russell Smyth; Haining Wang
  39. EU Accession, Domestic Market Competition and Total Factor Productivity. Firm Level Evidence By Klaus S. Friesenbichler
  40. Large-scale Transformations of Socio-economic Institutions By Esther Ademmer; Joscha Beckmann; Rainer Schweickert
  41. Криптовалюта в экономике Российской Федерации: положительные и отрицательные стороны By Urlapov, Pavel
  43. Перспективы и проблемы развития "зеленых" инвестиций в России By Yakovleva, Natalia
  44. Uzbekistan’s Development Strategies: Past Record and Long-term Options By Giovanni Andrea Cornia
  45. Political Uncertainty and Household Savings By Aaberge, Rolf; Liu, Kai; Zhu, Yu
  46. Define green sector: a pre-requisite to analyze China-Europe cooperation in the green industries By Federico Salvatelli
  47. Human Resource Management In Russian Manufacturing Subsidiaries Of Multinational Corporations By Igor B. Gurkov
  48. MOBBING - BASIC PROBLEM IN EMPLOYMENT IN TRANSITION By Vidoje Stefanoviæ, Bosko Vojnovic, Marija Stefanovic
  49. Household entrepreneurship and social networks:panel data evidence from Vietnam By Huu Chi Nguyen; Christophe Nordman
  50. Regional Foresight for Bridging National Science, Technology and Innovation with Company Innovation: Experiences from Russia By Alexey A. Kindras; Dirk Meissner; Konstantin O. Vishnevskiy; Mario Cervantes
  51. Central Banks Voting Records, Financial Crisis and Future Monetary Policy By Roman Horváth; Júlia Jonášová
  52. School System And Educational Policy In A Highly Stratified Post-Soviet Society: The Importance Of Social Context By Sergey G. Kosaretsky; Irina G. Grunicheva; Marina A. Pinskaya
  53. Aligning public expenditure for agricultural development priorities under rapid transformation: The case of China: By Yu, Bingxin; Chen, Kevin Z.; Zhang, Haisen
  54. Age and skill bias of trade liberalisation? Heterogeneous employment effects of EU Eastern Enlargement By Fries, Jan
  55. The Virtual Water Of Siberia And The Russian Far East For The Asia-Pacific Region: Global Gains Vs Regional Sustainability By Anastasia B. Likhacheva; Igor A. Makarov

  1. By: Gimpelson, Vladimir (CLMS, Higher School of Economics, Moscow); Kapeliushnikov, Rostislav (CLMS, Higher School of Economics, Moscow)
    Abstract: This paper discusses the structural change in the Russian employment and explores whether the evolution of employment over 2000-2012 followed the scenario of progressive upgrading in job quality or brought about the polarization of jobs in terms of their quality. Jobs are defined here as occupation-industry cells and their quality is measured through relative earnings and education levels. Using detailed micro-data from a few complementary large scale surveys, we rank all jobs according to the earnings and educational criteria and divide these distributions into 5 quintiles. At the next stage, we explore dynamic changes in job quality and socio-demographic characteristics of workers in different quintiles. The paper rejects the polarization scenario and confirms the upgrading hypothesis.
    Keywords: job polarization, job upgrading, job quality, employment restructuring, Russia
    JEL: J31 J62
    Date: 2014–12
  2. By: Eric Rugraff
    Abstract: This article questions the nature of the foreign direct R&D investments in Central Europe. Do the affiliates of the multinationals still undertake adaptive R&D? Have they recently engaged in innovative R&D activities in their Central European affiliates? We assess the nature of the R&D activities of the multinationals in Central Europe in three steps. In a first step we use the OECD database on foreign direct R&D expenditure and personnel to compare the foreign affiliates’ R&D intensity with the indigenous firms’ R&D intensity. We find few differences between the two families of firms. In a second step we use patents granted to foreigners in Central Europe as a variable proxy to assess the evolution of innovative R&D activities in Central Europe. We find that the patenting activities of foreigners rose with the increase of their R&D investments in Central Europe. We also suggest that the Central European affiliates still have a marginal position in the patenting strategy of the multinationals. In a third step we focus on the patent data of the foreign affiliates in the Czech Republic – the Central European leader as regards of foreign direct R&D investments –, in the major foreign direct R&D sectors – electronics, electrical equipment, machinery and motor vehicles –. We build a sample made of the ten multinationals representing the most active R&D investors in the country and assess the recent evolution of their patenting activity. We suggest that, (a) even these major R&D investors still only marginally apply for patents in their Czech affiliates; (b) there is no under-evaluation of the innovation activity of the Czech affiliates due to a geographical separation of inventions – in the Czech Republic – and patent location – in Western Europe; (c) the researchers working in the Czech affiliates are still not sufficiently oriented towards innovation activities to be integrated in the patenting-oriented international teams built by the multinationals. Foreign direct R&D investments in Central Europe remain mostly production supportive and associated with the international exploitation of technology produced in the Western headquarters and affiliates. Despite the strong engagement of the Czech government towards foreign direct R&D, real innovative R&D increases very slowly.
    Keywords: business R&D, multinationals, Central Europe, innovative R&D, patents.
    Date: 2014
  3. By: Velikodnaya, Polina
    Abstract: This article discusses the problem of asset securitization in Russia, its distinctive features, perspectives and ways of its development
    Keywords: securitization, the bank's assets, financial resources, legal basis Russia
    JEL: G18 H39 O50
    Date: 2014–12–22
  4. By: Wang, Wen; Guo, Liping; Li, Yingchun; Su, Man; Lin, Yuebin; De Perthuis, Christian; Ju, Xiaotang; Lin, Erda; Moran, Dominic
    Abstract: China faces significant challenges in reconciling food security goals with the objective of becoming a low-carbon economy. Agriculture accounts for approximately 11 % of China’s national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with cereal production representing a large proportion (about 32 %) of agricultural emissions. Minimizing emissions per unit of product is a policy objective and we estimated the GHG intensities (GHGI) of rice, wheat and maize production in China from 1985 to 2010. Results show significant variations of GHGIs among Chinese provinces and regions. Relative to wheat and maize, GHGI of rice production is much higher owing to CH4 emissions, and is more closely related to yield levels. In general, the south and central has been the most carbon intensive region in rice production while the GHGI of wheat production is highest in north and northwest provinces. The southwest has been characterized by the highest maize GHGI but the lowest rice GHGI. Compared to the baseline scenario, a 2 % annual reduction in N inputs, combined with improved water management in rice paddies, would mitigate 17 % of total GHG emissions from cereal production in 2020 while sustaining the required yield increase to ensure food security. Better management practices will entail additional gains in soil organic carbon further decreasing GHGI. To realize the full mitigation potential while maximizing agriculture development, the design of appropriate policies should accommodate local conditions.
    Keywords: food security; low-carbon agriculture; greenhouse gas intensity; China;
    JEL: Q15 Q24 Q54 Q18
    Date: 2015
  5. By: Vesna Simiæ,
    Abstract: The paper deals with a topic that is related to the economic development of Serbia. First, they provide economic development goals. Then, the author pays attention to the economic growth. An analysis of the current state of economic growth is a slow and long process. Then, the paper pays attention to the preconditions that are important for economic growth. At the end of the given function of economic growth.
    Keywords: business and economic development, economic growth, economic growth functions, Serbia.
    JEL: O10 O12 O40
    Date: 2014–09
  6. By: Nedeljko Prdiæ, Milan Mihajloviæ, Duško Jovanoviæ (JKP Market, Novi Sad; Modern Business School, Belgrade;The Academy of Business Economics, Cacak)
    Abstract: The main goal of this is to evaluate the possibility of efficient expansion of the life insurance market in the Republic of Serbia, as well as the economical and social influence that the development of this market would have on Serbia’s economy. The growth of life insurance market would definitely contribute to a better and safer life, general prosperity of the country, expansion of the economy, and the social structure of the country as a whole. The perspectives of the life insurance market in Serbia are great, since the market is rich enough and incomes have risen, and a very small number of people are insured.
    Keywords: life insurance, insurance, insurance companies, perspectives, development of life insurance.
    JEL: D40 D49
    Date: 2014–09
  7. By: Ilya A. Prakhov (National Research University Higher School of Economics.)
    Abstract: This paper examines the patterns of pre-entry coaching and corresponding investment in private tutoring before and after the introduction of the Unified State Exam (the USE). We estimate the effectiveness of private tutoring in 2012 – a few years after the USE became a prerequisite for admission to university. Data from the Monitoring of Education Markets and Organizations show that the main types of pre-entry coaching are still in demand despite the unification of admission requirements. The popularity of paid courses at a particular university has declined, and the prevalence of classes with tutors who are not related to university has risen. A few years after the introduction of the USE, the level of investment in pre-entry coaching in real terms barely changed; however, the returns from such an investment (expressed in the USE scores) are positive but moderate
    Keywords: dynamics of investment in pre-entry coaching, effectiveness of pre-entry coaching, the USE, educational strategies of students
    JEL: C31 I21 I24 I28
    Date: 2014
  8. By: Jean-Pierre Cling (CEPN, Université Paris Nord-CNRS, PSL, Université Paris-Dauphine, LEDa, IRD UMR DIAL); Mireille Razafindrakoto (IRD, UMR DIAL, PSL, Université Paris-Dauphine); François Roubaud (IRD, UMR DIAL, PSL, Université Paris-Dauphine)
    Abstract: (english) Labour market segmentation is usually defined as the division of the labour markets into separate submarkets or segments, distinguished by different characteristics and behavioural rules (incomes, contracts, etc.). The economic debate on the segmentation issue has been focusing in developed countries, and especially in Europe, on contractual segmentation and dualism. However, in developing countries such as Vietnam which is the focus of this study, wage work is marginal and the approach to labour market segmentation is necessarily slightly different. Indeed, most workers are engaged in the informal economy and many of them are self-employed in their own household business. Starting with an analysis of the main characteristics of the national labour market, this paper presents a survey of the literature on informality and labour market segmentation in Vietnam (section 2). Section 3 describes the institutional background related to firm registration and social protection in Vietnam, and analyses the reasons for informality in relationship with the institutional framework. Section 4 describes the reforms being put in place and employment strategies related to the informal economy. Policy recommendations are proposed in the last section. _________________________________ (français) La segmentation sur le marché du travail est usuellement définie comme la coexistence de deux segments ou secteurs qui se distinguent par leurs caractéristiques et les comportements qui y prévalent (niveau de revenus, contrats, etc.). Le débat économique sur la segmentation s’est focalisé dans les pays développés, et en particulier en Europe, sur le dualisme résultant des contrats. Cependant, dans les pays en développement comme le Vietnam, les emplois salariés étant marginaux, la segmentation sur le marché du travail doit nécessairement être appréhendée de manière différente. La majorité des emplois relève de l’économie informelle et une grande partie est constituée d’auto-emploi dans des entreprises individuelles. Partant d’une analyse des principales caractéristiques du marché du travail national, ce document présente ensuite une revue de la littérature sur l’informalité et la segmentation sur le marché du travail au Vietnam (section 2). La section 3 décrit le cadre institutionnel en matière d’enregistrement et de protection sociale au Vietnam, et analyse les raisons de l’informalité. La section 4 examine les réformes qui ont été mises en place et les stratégies en termes d’emploi touchant l’économie informelle. Enfin, des recommandations politiques sont proposées dans la dernière section.
    Keywords: Informality, Labour market, segmentation, Vietnam, Informel, marché du travail.
    JEL: J24 J31 O53 O17
    Date: 2014–11
  9. By: Anton P. Kazun (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Andrei A. Yakovlev (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: We analyse the professional community of attorneys in Russia in order to understand their potential for collective action in an imperfect institutional environment. In 2013 we conducted a survey of 372 attorneys in 9 regions of Russia. Two main hypotheses are tested: 1) lawyers with strong ethical values have higher demand for collective actions; 2) the negative experience of clients rights violation by law enforcement officers can motivate attorneys to support the foundation of a strong professional association. Also we suggest that attorneys’ professional community with bona fide members at the core could be an instrument for an estimation of the quality of law enforcement in Russia.
    Keywords: collective actions, professional community of attorneys, legal ethics, lawyer associations, quality of law enforcement system, violations of the rights of defendants.
    JEL: K49 D71 L84
    Date: 2014
  10. By: Tran, Quang Tuyen
    Abstract: This paper investigates socio-economic factors affecting household income among ethnic minorities in North-West Mountains – the poorest region of Vietnam. The findings revealed that the vast majority of the sample households heavily depended on agricultural activities, with very limitted access to nonfarm employment. Factors affecting household income were analyzed using multiple regression models and the results confirm the crucial role of education, non-farm employment and fixed assets in improving household income. Also, some community characteristics such as the presence of means of transportation, post offices and nonfarm job opportunities were found to have a significantly positive impact on household income. The findings imply that policies for poverty reduction should aim at both commune and household levels in the study area.
    Keywords: Ethnic minorities, nonfarm participation, household income, North-West Mountains.
    JEL: O12 Q12
    Date: 2014–12–15
  11. By: Voloshyn, Ihor; Lubich, Oleksandr
    Abstract: The article demonstrates that the 2008-2009th financial crisis in Ukraine has had a significant and complex impact on its budget. It is shown that the banking crisis has led to a reduction in taxes revenue in the budget, diversion of public funds for the capitalization of state banks and the nationalization of systemic private banks. The main reasons for the negative impact were poor level of risk management and inefficient level of its implementation in the overall system of financial management. As a result, the risks of the banking system of Ukraine were significantly underestimated. To safeguard the state budget from unexpected increasing the expenses on the capitalization of state banks and the nationalization of private ones from reducing the taxes revenue were proposed to develop strategies of improving controllability of banks, to conduct simulation of the banking system of Ukraine on system-dynamic model base and to strengthen supervision of banks by introducing reporting about projected cash flows and cash flows at risk, to develop a corresponding methodology for assessing the risk of net cash bank loss before changes in operating assets and liabilities and for stress-testing of net cash profit and loss of the bank.
    Keywords: crisis, risk management, banking system, financial management, management reporting, controllability, observability, banking supervision, budget
    JEL: G21
    Date: 2014–12–28
  12. By: Jana Soukopová; Vojtìch Ficek (Department of Public Economics, Masaryk University)
    Abstract: This paper is based on an analysis of factors influencing the selection of waste collection companies by municipal authorities in selected municipalities in the Czech Republic, and their impact on the cost efficiency of current municipal expenditures. The aim of this paper is analysing the factors influencing the choice of waste management company and the influence of these factors on the decision making process, and discussing the relation of these factors to the cost efficiency of municipal waste management. The first part of this paper is focused on the factors influencing the choice of waste management company and the influence of these factors on the decision making process, and discusses the relation of these factors to the cost efficiency of municipal waste management. In the other part of this paper we focus our attention on the form of ownership (public and private companies) and strength of competition as two key factors which are frequently mentioned in many foreign research papers and which influence the importance of other factors. The study uses a quantitative approach to investigate the research questions and analyses original collected qualitative survey data obtained during our own research. A survey was conducted for a selected local public service (waste management) in order to collect data about factors influencing the selection of waste collection companies by 115 municipalities in the Czech Republic. The results show that the most powerful factors that influence the selection of waste collection companies at municipalities in the Czech Republic are the price and the quality of services. It was also clearly shown that the significance of individual factors is related to the competitive environment. The level of significance of individual factors is directly proportional to the strength of the competitive environment.
    Keywords: municipalities; waste management; waste collection companies; competitiveness; efficiency; municipal decisions; the Czech Republic
    JEL: H76
    Date: 2014–11
  13. By: Akgüc, Mehtap (Center for European Policy Studies (CEPS)); Liu, Xingfei (IZA); Tani, Massimiliano (IZA)
    Abstract: We study the labor market outcomes of males aged 18-60 obtaining an urban hukou as a result of land expropriation across a number of provinces in China. Using 2008 and 2009 RUMiC data pooling urban, rural and migrant samples, we find that those obtaining an urban hukou have better labour market outcomes than rural stayers and migrants, and close the gap vis-à-vis native urbanites. We also find that children of families experiencing a hukou change due to expropriation have similar investment in human capital as the children of native urban hukou holders. The results confirm the hukou status as a strong economic determinant of labor market outcomes and as a source of inequality. Differences in educational investment, regardless of the differences in parental background, appear however to disappear for the children of families experiencing expropriation, suggesting that leveling the hukou status amongst children in an urban area may be a first step towards reducing intergenerational inequality.
    Keywords: expropriation, China, labour markets, economic reform, quasi-experiment
    JEL: D19 J18 O12 O43 R20
    Date: 2014–12
  14. By: Jing You; Sangui Wang; Laurence Roope
    Abstract: We analyse intertemporal poverty in two important dimensions income and nutrition in less developed northwest China during 2000-2004. A generalised recursive selection model is proposed which enables simultaneous estimation of the causes of intertemporal poverty within and between dimensions. Improvement in agricultural production is crucial for reducing both dimensions of intertemporal poverty. We find evidence suggestive of intertemporal income-nutrition poverty traps.Higher labour productivity, especially in agriculture rather than local off-farm activities or out-migration, holds much potential for breaking the vicious circle. Agricultural innovation and mechanisation, regarded by the government as indispensable, yield mixed outcomes for intertemporal multi-dimensional poverty reduction.
    Keywords: intertemporal poverty, multi-dimensional poverty, rural China
    JEL: D63 I3 O52
    Date: 2014
  15. By: Alexander Libman (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Tatiana G. Dolgopyatova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Andrey A. Yakovlev (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the role of boards in founder-managed firms with concentrated ownership in emerging markets. The existing literature suggests that this type of company, even if they decide to recruit high-profile individuals as directors, rarely empowers the boards in the corporate governance structure. The paper conducts a case study of AFK Sistema—a large Russian investment company which is controlled and managed by the founder. We observe that, contrary to expectations, in this company the founder empowered the board of directors at the same time focusing on recruiting independent (mainly foreign) directors to the board, in spite of the costs associated with this governance structure in the Russian context. Based on this case, we develop a theory of entrepreneurial boards where directors are expected to take the initiative in relations with both internal and external actors and where the empowerment of boards is necessary to provide them with proper motivation.
    Keywords: board of directors, corporate governance, founder-managed firms, entrepreneurial function, emerging markets
    JEL: D23 G34 M14
    Date: 2014
  16. By: Daria P. Platonova (National Research University Higher School of Economics.); Dmitry S. Semyonov (National Research University Higher School of Economics.)
    Abstract: This article explores the issue of program diversification within Russian higher education institutions (HEIs) and its major determining forces. Comparing several historical types of specialized institutions, which were manly formed during the Soviet period, this study highlights two key issues. Firstly, we investigate how these specialized institutions have transformed, and secondly, we make an attempt to determine the cause of these transformations. We assume that the level of diversification and program drift is defined by two influential forces: state regulation and market forces. Empirical evidence on the changes of HEIs internal diversification includes quantitative analysis distributed throughout eight fields of education.
    Keywords: program diversification, specialization, higher education institutions, Russia, transformations of organizations
    JEL: I2 L31
    Date: 2014
  17. By: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
    Abstract: KEY ISSUES Governance in the banking system remains poor and the condition of some large banks is fragile. The budget faces a tight financing situation, and—without corrective measures—the deficit is projected to widen significantly in 2015. Russia’s new restrictions on imports from Moldova are exacerbating the ongoing slowdown in activity, easing inflationary pressures, and weakening export performance. Discussions mainly focused on policies to address the significant risks in the banking sector, return to a path of fiscal consolidation, and boost potential growth and preserve external stability. Financial sector. The recommendations of the recent FSAP should be implemented, in particular regarding the enforcement of regulatory requirements. A plan to deal with weak banks needs to be developed. Fiscal policy. Returning to a path of fiscal consolidation, with a view to lower reliance on exceptionally high donor support over the medium term is important. This objective can be achieved by containing the budget deficit below 3 percent of GDP in 2015, gradually reducing it 1½ percent by 2018. Monetary policy. The supportive monetary policy stance should be maintained but the NBM should stand firm against pressures to facilitate its financing of the budget. Exchange rate movements driven by fundamentals should not be resisted. Structural reforms. Structural reforms are needed to boost potential output growth and reduce vulnerabilities. Strengthening external stability requires efforts to diversify export products and markets, and sources of financing.
    Keywords: Post-program monitoring;Fiscal policy;Fiscal consolidation;Fiscal reforms;Banking sector;Monetary policy;Bank supervision;Economic indicators;Staff Reports;Press releases;Moldova;
    Date: 2014–12–17
  18. By: Enrico Marelli; Elena S. Vakulenko (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: Youth unemployment is a serious problem in many European countries. In the first part of the paper, we consider the aggregate trends in some EU countries and in Russia; we especially investigate the recent period after the global crisis and the Great Recession. We then consider the different types of determinants, including macroeconomic conditions, structural determinants, labour market institutions and regulations. However, the focus of our analysis is on the role played by individual and family determinants such as age, gender, education level, marital status, health, household income, housing conditions. The econometric part of the paper makes use of Eurostat micro-level data EU-SILC for Italy and RLMS-HSE data set for Russia. We use a Heckman probit model to estimate the unemployment risk of young people during the period 2004-2011. Our main research question is to explain the probability of being unemployed for young people in terms of their personal characteristics and compare these outcomes with results for the same model for adults. We take also into account some macro variables, such as living in urban areas or the regional unemployment rate. The results are of interest, since the two countries have quite different labour market institutions, besides having different levels of youth unemployment. However, most of the explanatory variables act in the same direction in both countries and it is interesting to compare the relative size of such effects, which we measure through the average partial effects.
    Keywords: youth unemployment, individual determinants of unemployment, regional unemployment, Heckman probit.
    JEL: J64
    Date: 2014
  19. By: Amendolagine , Vito (Dipartimento di Scienze Politiche Sociali – Università di Pavia); Cozza , Claudio (Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Aziendali, Matematiche e Statistiche- Università di Trieste); Rabellotti , Roberta (Dipartimento di Scienze Politiche Sociali – Università di Pavia)
    Abstract: In this paper we aim to contribute to the literature on Chinese and Indian multinationals investing in Europe, through an empirical investigation of their identity and characteristics and the association between these features and their international business strategies. The investigation exploits a dataset at the level of the investing firms. In relation to mode of entry, we find that the greenfield is a more likely option for large-sized companies, and that weak propensity for innovation is associated with a low probability to enter through a merger or acquisition. A high propensity for innovation is related to asset-seeking FDI, while high profitability is needed to invest in the core EU countries. Finally, very large size characterizes companies that invest in more than country.
    Keywords: China; India; FDI; firm-level data; MNEs
    JEL: F21 F23
    Date: 2014–12–15
  20. By: Oleg Leshukov (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Mikhail Lisyutkin (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The significant differentiation and heterogeneity of Russian regional higher education systems requires a thoughtful federal policy which takes into account the peculiarities and unique features of the regional socio-economic situations. The research presented in the paper elaborates the rationale and basis for the “regionalization” of public policy in Russian higher education. Different approaches to the development of the regional higher education systems in Russia are explored in the paper. The analysis is based on the presupposition that the governance of the higher education systems should take into account regional socio-economic development priorities. The typology of regional higher education systems in Russia is presented in the paper. The consideration of the types in the context of the regional socio-economic situations allows authors to offer public policy mechanisms for the development of regional higher education systems in the context of the compliance with the objectives of regional development.
    Keywords: regional higher education system, federal policy, development, typology, Russia.
    JEL: I23 I28
    Date: 2014
  21. By: Valeria V. Lakshina (National Research University Higher School)
    Abstract: The paper proposes the thorough investigation of the in-sample and out-of-sample performance of four GARCH and two stochastic volatility models, which were estimated based on Russian financial data. The data includes Aeroflot and Gazprom’s stock prices, and the rouble against the US dollar exchange rates. In our analysis, we use the probability integral transform for the in-sample comparison, and a Mincer-Zarnowitz regression, along with classical forecast performance measures, for the out-of-sample comparison. Studying both the explanatory and the forecasting power of the models analyzed, we came to the conclusion that stochastic volatility models perform equally or in some cases better than GARCH models.
    Keywords: GARCH, stochastic volatility, markov switching multifractal, forecast performance.
    JEL: C01 C58 C51 G17
    Date: 2014
  22. By: Gordey A. Yasterbov (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Alexey R. Bessudnov (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Marina A. Pinskaya (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Sergey G. Kosaretsky (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This study focuses on how social contexts promote disparities in academic performance between Russian high schools. In particular, we investigate how a school’s average Unified State Examination (USE) scores in Russian and mathematics relate to the social composition of its student body, its material and human resources, and local deprivation. We develop a two-level hierarchical regression model to analyze data from school profiles collected in two Russian regions (Yaroslavskaya Oblast’ and Moskovskaya Oblast’) during the 2011-12 academic year. Both social characteristics of the student body and the school’s material and human resources were associated with academic performance. However, after controlling for the characteristics of pupils and schools, our study did not discover any significant independent effects of the local context. In conclusion, we discuss the implications of these findings with regard to developing contextualized measures of academic performance in Russia, the limitations of current research and suggest several possibilities for its empirical development
    Keywords: school context, school resources, local deprivation, academic performance, educational inequality
    JEL: I21 I24
    Date: 2014
  23. By: Petr Parshakov (National Research University Higher School)
    Abstract: Our work is focused on Russian mutual funds managers' skills versus luck testing. Using the bootstrap procedure of Kosowski et al. (2007) we test Jensen's alpha signicance for each fund. We found that only 5% of equity mutual funds do have skills. These results for the emerging Russian market are similar to previous studies of developed markets. Interestingly, skilled funds are not characterized with the extremely high alpha. This leads to an unexpected conclusion: an investor should avoid funds with a very high alpha
    Keywords: asset management, Russian stock market, skill, mutual fund
    JEL: G23 C12
    Date: 2014
  24. By: John V.C. Nye (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Maria M. Yudkevich (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Ekaterina A. Orel (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Ekaterina V. Kochergina (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: There is now a large literature on the correlates of prenatal androgen exposure and various individual measures of performance in sports, business, or schooling. However, there is still relatively limited evidence of the impact of prenatal androgens on life achievement. Using data from the Russian longitudinal survey and measured digit ratios, we found that age-corrected market wages are nonlinearly correlated with low measured 2D:4D ratios signifying higher prenatal testosterone. Unlike earlier work on noncognitive correlates of labor market wages, our findings indicate a clear-cut optimum 2D:4D ratio for women’s wages with higher and lower 2D:4D being associated with lowered wages. However, the size of these effects is small, especially compared to the influence of education on income.
    Keywords: Adult wages, Prenatal Testosterone, Female earnings
    JEL: J24 J31
    Date: 2014
  25. By: BLINOV, Sergey
    Abstract: This paper investigates the possibility of conducting an unconventional monetary policy of Quantitative easing (QE) at high interest rates using the example and experience of Russia. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation has raised the key interest rate on six occasions during the 12 months of 2014 from 5.5% to 17%. The Central Bank has been coming in for criticism for such an increase. However, this criticism is unfair, as sometimes interest rate reduction or failure to raise interest rate result in adverse consequences. Luckily, interest rate is not the only and often far from being the most efficient tool of successful monetary policy. During the hardest phase of the most recent crisis, the central banks worldwide, for example, U.S. Federal Reserve System, resorted to another tool, i.e. Quantitative easing (QE), rather interest rates (which, by that time, had been virtually dropped down to zero). Some experts recognize those to be an important innovation devised by Ben Bernanke, Head of the U.S. Fed during 2006 - 2014. The Central Bank of Russia now has an opportunity of employing a still more innovative policy, i.e. to have “quantitative easing” at high interest rates rather than at zero rates. The experience of the «Golden Decade» (the decade of robust economic growth in Russia between September 1998 and September 2008) proves the efficiency of such monetary policy. The criterion for «sufficiency» of quantitative easing must be the growth rate of the real money supply. In June 2014, the real money supply decreased. That has happened for the first time since December 2009. It shows that there is a need for urgent action on the part of the Central Bank. To bring about steady economic growth, it is required that such quantitative easing be put in place as would make real money supply grow at a pace no slower than the target growth rate for GDP. According to preliminary estimate, the volume of necessary easing would be in the range between RUR 0.6 and 1.9 trillion. Such a program may make itself felt as soon as 3-4 months after its launch.
    Keywords: Monetary Policy, Central Banking, Interest Rates, Quantitative Easing (QE), Economic Growth, Money Supply
    JEL: E31 E32 E40 E43 E50 E51 E52 E58 E65 G01 N10 O11
    Date: 2014–12–19
  26. By: Sergey V. Chuvashov (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This research defines the relatively new concept of socio-psychological capital and examines the interrelation between socio-psychological capital and emigration intentions of Russian youth. Socio-psychological capital is seen as a resource of psychological relations, available to individuals belonging to a group. Socio-psychological capital includes trust, national identity, ethnic tolerance. The research also deals with the theory of planned behaviour, applied to emigration intentions. The empirical database is presented by the sample of Russian students (N=203). The results of structure equation modelling show that the model of planned emigration behaviour differs from the original theoretical model. We also found a negative relationship between national identity, institutional trust and emigration intentions. The results advance the understanding of the psychological nature of emigration intentions and highlight the potential of the socio-psychological capital concept
    Keywords: emigration intentions, socio-psychological capital, value orientations, trust, national identity
    JEL: O15
    Date: 2014
  27. By: Sandra PONCET (Université de Paris I); Julien GOURDON (FERDI); Laura HERING (FERDI); Stéphanie MONJON (FERDI)
    Abstract: Compared to most countries, China’s value-added tax (VAT) system is not neutral and makes it less advantageous to export a product than to sell it domestically, as exporters may not receive a complete refund on the domestic VAT they have paid on their inputs. However, the large and frequent changes to the VAT refunds which are offered to exporters have been led China to be accused of providing its firms with an unfair advantage in global trade. We use city-specific export-quantity data at the HS6-product level over the 2003-12 period to assess how changes in these VAT rebates have affected Chinese export performance. Our identification strategy relies on triple difference estimates that exploit an eligibility rule which disqualifies processing trade with supplied materials from these rebates. We find that changes in VAT rebates have significant export repercussions: eligible export quantity for a given city-HS6 pair rises by 6.5% following a one percentage-point increase in the VAT rebate. This magnitude yields a better understanding of the strong resistance of Chinese exports during the global recession, in which export rebates increased substantially.
    JEL: F10 F14 O14
    Date: 2014–12
  28. By: Anna Balsevich (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Elena Podkolzina (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: Corruption is widely spread across the world and is believed to affect economic growth negatively. It is most persistent in the developing countries. Russian economy is not an exception. Significant losses are also reported in public procurement in Russia due to corruption. Unfortunately, to measure corruption is very challenging. In this paper, using the data on procurement in one of the Russian regions as an example, we suggest and discuss different indicators of corruption that might have taken place during the procurement process. We also provide some preliminary estimates of how corruption influences the results of public procurement in this region.
    Keywords: public procurement; corruption;
    JEL: H57 D73
    Date: 2014
  29. By: Anna Y. Kulkova (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The paper argues that religiosity is one of the potential determinants of political participation in Russia. A complex model of religiosity is applied, which treats individual religiosity as both belonging to religious tradition and religious behavior, while political participation includes voting, attending demonstrations, signing petitions and participating in electoral campaigns. The aim of this research is to identify whether there is a difference in political participation between religious and non-religious Russians, and between followers of different religious traditions and atheists. Secondly, it is important to explore which of the measurements of religiosity, religious tradition or religious behavior have the most powerful effect on Russians’ political participation. The data for the statistical analysis is from the European Social Survey (6th round), which includes representatives of major religious traditions in Russia.
    Keywords: political participation, religion and politics, religiosity, political behavior, political activism.
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2014
  30. By: Kimle, Kevin
    Abstract: This paper suggests four models that could link US and Chinese investment and yield productive new avenues for commercial collaboration. All four models focus on animal protein supply chain technologies. That is because agricultural innovation in this realm is of particular importance to demandside developments and to rapidly changing consumption patterns in China.  These four models focus on early-stage agricultural innovation and business development. 
    Keywords: China; innovation; agricultural technologies; Investment; Business startups
    JEL: M13 M16 O32 Q13 Q16
    Date: 2014–09–21
  31. By: Deryugina , Elena (BOFIT); Ponomarenko , Alexey (BOFIT)
    Abstract: We apply an econometric approach developed specifically to address the ‘curse of dimensionality’ in Russian data and estimate a Bayesian vector autoregression model comprising 14 major domestic real, price and monetary macroeconomic indicators as well as external sector variables. We conduct several types of exercise to validate our model: impulse response analysis, recursive forecasting and counter factual simulation. Our results demonstrate that the employed methodology is highly appropriate for economic modelling in Russia. We also show that post-crisis real sector developments in Russia could be accurately forecast if conditioned on the oil price and EU GDP (but not if conditioned on the oil price alone).
    Keywords: Bayesian vector autoregression; forecasting; Russia
    JEL: C32 E32 E44 E47
    Date: 2014–12–03
  32. By: Veronika I. Kabalina (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Kira V. Reshetnikova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Marina D. Predvoditeleva (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper presents the results of research into the values and norms which are adhered to a Russian tour operator, the employees’ personal business values, and the level of their adherence to company regulations. The empirical data of this research includes the company’s internal documents, four in-depth interviews with senior management employees, and a survey of 98 employees. The value and norm profiles of the organization and its employees were identified, as well as the areas in which they converged and diverged. This research shed some light on those values and norms which are characteristic of a tourism organization, and attempted to fill the gap in the extant knowledge on this topic in the academic literature.
    Keywords: tourism industry, personal values of employees, organizational values, organizational norms, value congruence, Russia.
    JEL: L83 Z13
    Date: 2014
  33. By: John V.C. Nye (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Maxim V. Bryukhanov (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Sergiy S. Polyachenko (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: Using a large sample drawn from families in the Moscow and Moscow region which are part of the Russian RMLS longitudinal survey we observe clear links between measured 2D:4D digit ratios and a variety of life outcome measures, even with the inclusion of multiple controls. Contributing to existing empirical ndings, we found statistically signicant empirical associations of 2D:4D with higher educational attainment, occupational outcomes, knowledge of foreign language, smoking, engaging in sport activities and with some aspects of respondent's self-esteem. In general, the character of detected empirical associations are dierent for women and men, as it was documented in our previous studies.
    Keywords: Prenatal testosterone, 2D:4D, level of education, occupations, lifetime outcomes
    JEL: D03 I12 J24
    Date: 2014
  34. By: Cheung, Yin-Wong (BOFIT); Chinn , Menzie D. (BOFIT); Qian, Xingwang (BOFIT)
    Abstract: We examine Chinese-US trade flows over the 1994-2012 period, and find that, in line with the conventional wisdom, the value of China’s exports to the US responds negatively to real renminbi (RMB) appreciation, while import responds positively. Further, the combined empirical price effects on exports and imports imply an increase in the real value of the RMB will reduce China’s trade balance. The use of alternative exchange rate measures and data on different trade classifications yields additional insights. Firms more subject to market forces exhibit greater price sensitivity. The price elasticity is larger for ordinary exports than for processing exports. Finally, accounting for endogeneity and measurement error matters. Hence, the purging the real exchange rate of the portion responding to policy, or using the deviation of the real exchange rate from the equilibrium level yields a stronger measured effect than when using the unadjusted bilateral exchange rate.
    Keywords: import; export; elasticity; real exchange rate; processing trade
    JEL: F12 F41
    Date: 2014–12–03
  35. By: Michael Böheim (WIFO); Klaus S. Friesenbichler (WIFO)
    Abstract: This paper argues that the accession to the European Union improves the quality of competition policy via the implementation of pro-competitive policies, especially antitrust and competition policies, embedded in the Community Acquis. We assess this conjecture empirically for the (former) transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe, using member countries as well as developing and developed countries in Europe and Central Asia as a control group. The data used is a macro-economic panel of 48 countries covering six 3-year periods between 1995 and 2012. We find that EU accession positively affected the quality of competition policies over and above an overall trend towards more market oriented policies. The improvement in competition policy was not reversed in a single country of the sample. The findings are robust when controlling for endogeneity issues. We also document a slow-down in policy reform efforts in the aftermath of the crisis, challenging previous literature which expects a reform enhancing effect of crisis.
    Keywords: competition policy, regulation, economic transition, Community Acquis, EU accession
    Date: 2014–12–18
  36. By: Sefa Awaworyi; Vinod Mishra
    Abstract: Within labour economics, returns to education is an area of focused research. Moreover, amongst the studies looking at the emerging economies, China is the most widely studied economy. While there is general consensus that returns to education are positive, studies use various datasets and methodologies, and consequently present varying estimates of the returns to education. We perform a meta-analysis of the estimates of the returns to education in China, which addresses issues of heterogeneity in the existing literature and examines if variations in reported estimates could be explained by study characteristics such as dataset and estimation methods amongst others. After controlling for publication selection bias, precision effect and funnel asymmetry test (PET/FAT) results indicate that an additional year of schooling is associated with 17.26% increase in income. Meta-regression analysis (MRA) results show that moderating variables and study characteristics account for 53.92% of variations in reported estimates. After controlling for moderating variables, MRA results suggest that the association between education and income in China is 10.25%.
    Keywords: Schooling, Earnings, China, Meta-analysis
    Date: 2014–09
  37. By: Irina Mersianova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Natalya Ivanova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Irina Korneeva (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: As part of Russia’s transformation process of the last decade, the preconditions for the emergence of philanthropic institutions were created. However, there is a limited amount of research devoted to the philanthropic activity of Russians. This deficit stems from a lack of empirical data on the subject. This article seeks to partly rectify this deficit of empirical information on the topic. We examine the level of Russian citizens’ involvement in making cash donations and reveal the socio-demographic factors that influence it. Empirical data were collected within the framework of the monitoring of Russian civil society that has been conducted since 2006. We found that giving is a rather well-developed civic practice in Russia, even based on the number of Russians who make donations. To activate charity, a favorable institutional environment needs to be created in Russia.
    Keywords: philanthropy, charity, donations, volunteering, civil society, benefactors, donors, logistic regression
    JEL: L3 L31
    Date: 2014
  38. By: Zhiming Cheng; Stephen P. King; Russell Smyth; Haining Wang
    Abstract: This study explores the relationship between home ownership and subjective wellbeing in urban China. We first present a theoretical model examining the relationship between housing property rights and subjective wellbeing in China. We then test the predictions of the theoretical model using a nationally representative dataset. We find that not only home ownership, but the property rights one acquires and the source of those property rights matters for subjective wellbeing. Moreover, not only whether one has a home loan, but the type of home loan one has matters for subjective wellbeing.
    Keywords: Subjective wellbeing, housing property rights, China
    Date: 2014–09
  39. By: Klaus S. Friesenbichler (WIFO)
    Abstract: In this paper we argue that changes in the EU membership status of the countries in Central and Eastern Europe led to less concentrated markets. This is due to the implementation of competition policy and other pro-competitive policies embedded in the Community Acquis, the body of European Union law. A regression analysis using data on 39,646 firms from six survey waves between 2002 and 2013 found EU membership to significantly increase the degree of domestic competition. While the effect of competition policy itself on market structures was statistically insignificant, the interaction between EU membership status and competition policy showed a strong and statistically significant competition enhancing effect. These findings were linked to a firm-level TFP analysis. Less concentrated markets were associated with higher productivity levels. This finding is robust after controlling for endogeneity issues. EU membership was only weakly associated with changes in TFP levels, but led to a decrease in the variance of the productivity measure across firms.
    Keywords: competition policy, productivity, Community Acquis, EU, Enterprise Surveys, ECA, CEE
    Date: 2014–12–18
  40. By: Esther Ademmer; Joscha Beckmann; Rainer Schweickert
    Abstract: We explain economic growth by both politics, i.e. government activity including spending as well as regulation, and institutional quality and its interaction with politics. This extends previous work on institution building in transition by looking at its impact and, at the same time, considering endogeneity problems. While intially planned in two stages, the modified approach is able to integrate the arguments developed in the cluster approach on varieties of capitalism and their potential explanatory power for economic growth. As forseen for the second stage, we estimate the determinants of transition based on the exogenous components of institution building only as well as on other factors, especially welfare policies. This approach also allows to integrate various measures of income or well-being as soon as panel data becomes available.
    Keywords: Economic strategy, Institutional reforms, Political economy of policy reform
    JEL: F15 H50 P10 P20
    Date: 2014–12
  41. By: Urlapov, Pavel
    Abstract: An article about the impact of digital currency into the global economy processes. The author analyzes working principle of cryptocurrency and electronic commerce, as well as expected economic and scientific implications of integration cryptocurrency into economy of Russian Federation.
    Keywords: Digital currency, cryptocurrency, Internet, economics, Bitcoin, IT, Russian Federation.
    JEL: F0 F4 F52 G2 H0 O3
    Date: 2014
  42. By: Ivan Raoniæ, Zoran Vasic (College of Economics and Administration, Belgrade; Republic of Serbia, Ministry of Finance, Tax Administration.)
    Abstract: Like any tax, the VAT is vulnerable to evasion and fraud. It should be said that its concept of credit - refund offers the unique possibility of abuse, which has for a long time the main concern in the European Union (EU), while in Serbia profiled specific form of VAT evasion, so called “ Business with phantom companies “. This paper describes the basic types of tax violations characteristic of VAT, considers how to solve them, based on the experiences of development countries, with a special focus on the specific concept to VAT in Serbia.
    Keywords: enterprise, allocation, realokatori, yield, expenses, recession, capital.
    JEL: H20 H25 H26
    Date: 2014–09
  43. By: Yakovleva, Natalia
    Abstract: The article describes the situation in the industry of the «green» technologies in the world, the perspectives of the development of the «green» investments in Russia, the main problems of implementation and use environmentally friendly technologies, and provides solutions to these problems.
    Keywords: «green» technologies, investment, «green» investments, environmental investments, alternative energy, renewable energy, innovations.
    JEL: Q57
    Date: 2014–12–23
  44. By: Giovanni Andrea Cornia (Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa)
    Abstract: Uzbekistan became independent in September 1991 following the breakup of the Soviet Union. The country followed an heterodox approach to macroeconomic stabilization and the transition to the market economy which reduced the depth of the transitional recession experienced by most former socialist countries of Eastern Europe and Former Soviet Union. The development strategy it followed between 1995 and 2005 relied mainly on a state-coordinated exploitation of its land, water and mineral resources. Despite sustained growth and some structural transformation, such approach generated a limited number of formal sector jobs due to its high capital-, resource-, and energy- intensity. While poverty declined, the poverty alleviation elasticity of growth remained modest. Two years ago, the country launched the ambitious ‘Uzbekistan Vision 2030’ which aims at reaching by that year the status of upper-middle-income country. In this regard, this paper assesses in detail the achievements and limitations of the policy model adopted till 2012 and proposes two alternative development strategies to reach the targets set by the country’s authorities for 2030.
    Date: 2014
  45. By: Aaberge, Rolf (Statistics Norway); Liu, Kai (Norwegian School of Economics); Zhu, Yu (University of Dundee)
    Abstract: Despite macroeconomic evidence pointing to a negative aggregate consumption response due to political uncertainty, few papers have used microeconomic panel data to analyze how households adjust their consumption after an uncertainty shock. We study household savings and expenditure adjustment from an unexpected, large-scale and rapidly evolving political shock that occurred largely in May 1989 in Beijing, China. Using monthly micro panel data, we present evidence that a surge in political uncertainty resulted in significant temporary increases in savings among urban households in China. Households responded mainly by reducing semi-durable expenditure and frequency of major durable adjustment. The uncertainty effect is more pronounced among older, wealthier, and more socially advantaged households. We interpret our findings using existing models of precautionary behavior. By focusing on time variation in uncertainty, our identification strategy avoids many of the potential problems in empirical studies of precautionary savings such as self-selection and life-cycle effects.
    Keywords: China, household savings, political uncertainty
    JEL: D91 J3 E21
    Date: 2014–12
  46. By: Federico Salvatelli (University of Macerata)
    Abstract: This work-in-progress paper suggests a classification of environmental codes. It is one of the first output of a wider research project analyzing Chinese inward and outward FDI in the green industries. This study compares already existing methodological resources and proposes an original taxonomy of green sectors. The literature confirms the absence of a clear classification on different environmental activities (products and services). In many cases goods and services can only be partly categorized as environmental. The study shows a first categorization of economic activities through a codes list where it is possible understand which types of goods and services are considered green. As we review, there are some goods and services that are considered as partly green and it will be necessary to analyze in depth each code. Not all environmental activities could be classified with the highest precision, as there are some activities that do not fully qualify as green activities. In order to have a more reliable assessment, it is necessary to test all items of the taxonomy using the macro or industry/firm level quantitative data. This is a work-in-progress study and it represents a first step to a wider research agenda funded by the European Union. Scholars, practitioners and policy makers can have a clearer definition on environmental products/services.
    Keywords: China, environmental activities, foreign direct investment (FDI), green sector, taxonomy of Green industries
    Date: 2014–12
  47. By: Igor B. Gurkov (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The paper reports the results of a survey of top executives of Russian manufacturing subsidiaries of multinational corporations (MNCs). We reveal the prevailing types of job contracts and the use of monetary and non-monetary benefits, and find the similarities with and differences from such arrangements in locally owned industrial companies. We also reveal the differences in human resource management (HRM) policies based on the source of authority over HRM issues (global headquarters, regional headquarters, local groups of companies, etc.). The findings assist in predicting the possible evolution of HRM policies in Russian manufacturing subsidiaries of MNCs during the anticipated period of economic recession in Russia.
    Keywords: Multinational corporations, Human resource management policies, Russia, Manufacturing, International management
    JEL: F23 M12 M11 L60 L23 J32 J32
    Date: 2014
  48. By: Vidoje Stefanoviæ, Bosko Vojnovic, Marija Stefanovic (Faculty of Sciences, University of Nis)
    Abstract: Conceived as a process of economic restructuring, changes in ownership and increase business efficiency, the transition in all the former socialist countries in the Balkans has produced a number of negative effects. Of these two are drastic:huge number of unemployed and disastrous situation of employees. Almost unique perspective of economic analysts is that mobbing is a fundamental problem employees. Whether it is horizontal or vertical, the victim is forced to perform tasks that impair their health, work and life rights. In a word, it creates an atmosphere that is often employed envy the unemployed, as there are about 45 forms of expression mobbing. About this, evidenced by the authors' research in the Nis district.
    Keywords: transition, mobbing, mobbers, the environment.
    JEL: J
    Date: 2014–09
  49. By: Huu Chi Nguyen (University of Paris North, UMR DIAL); Christophe Nordman (IRD, UMR 225 DIAL, PSL, Université Paris Dauphine, LEDa)
    Abstract: (english) Using a unique panel of household businesses for Vietnam, this paper sheds light on the links between households’ and entrepreneurs’ social networks and business performance. We address two related questions. One first question asks if we can find evidence of a differentiated effect of employment of members of the family versus hired workers on the business performance. A second question tackles the respective effects of various dimensions of social networks on the business technical efficiency. The assumption is that, beyond the channel of labour productivity, entrepreneurs that are confronted with an unfavourable social environment may produce less efficiently and realize a lower output than what could be possible with the same amount of resources. We find evidence of a productivity differential between family and hired labour and highlight results consistent with the presence of adverse social network effects faced by households running a business, in particular ethnic minorities. We stress the importance of professional networks for successful entrepreneurship. _________________________________ (français) En utilisant un panel de microentreprises familiales au Vietnam, cet article met en relation le réseau social des entrepreneurs et de leur ménage avec la performance de la microentreprise familiale. Nous abordons deux questions connexes. La première examine la possibilité d'effets différenciés de l'emploi des membres de la famille par rapport à des travailleurs recrutés sur le marché du travail sur la performance de la microentreprise. Une deuxième question aborde les effets respectifs des différentes dimensions des réseaux sociaux sur l'efficience technique de la microentreprise. L'hypothèse testée est que, au-delà du canal de la productivité du travail, les entrepreneurs qui sont confrontés à un environnement social défavorable pourraient produire moins efficacement et réaliser une valeur ajoutée plus faible que ce qui pourrait être possible avec la même quantité de ressources. Nous montrons qu'il existe en effet un différentiel de productivité entre le travail familial et le travail recruté sur le marché, et nos résultats attestent de la présence d'effets défavorables du réseau social pour certains ménages gérant une microentreprise. Nous soulignons aussi l'importance des réseaux professionnels pour la réussite de l'entreprenariat familial.
    Keywords: Family labour, Kinship and ethnic ties, Sharing norms, Social network capital, Informality, Household business, Panel, Vietnam.
    JEL: D13 D61 O12
    Date: 2014–11
  50. By: Alexey A. Kindras (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Dirk Meissner (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Konstantin O. Vishnevskiy (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Mario Cervantes (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: Whereas national and corporate Foresight are established instruments for anticipatory STI policy and innovation strategy respectively, regional Foresight is a rather new phenomena in this arena. Placed in between national and corporate Foresight regional Foresight can be considered to fulfill a briding role between the two by taking advantage of corporate Foresight done at corporations which are based in the regions and by orienting on the broader national Foresight and the related challenges covered by these studies. In addition regional Foresight also involves stakeholders who might be engaged in national as well as corporate but presumably these stakeholders play a more important and prominent role in the regional Foresight. Also it is understood that regional networks are important for the successful implementation of the results. Also at the regional dimension it shows that stronger personal linkages exist than in national or corporate Foresight. The article introduces and discusses two regional Foresight case studies in Russian regions, namely Bashkortostan and Samara. Regional Foresight in both case studies was designed to mirror the quadruple helix instead of focusing on the triple helix only as it is done in many other regional Foresight cases, e.g. the focus was extended beyond the science, government and industry stakeholders by including civil society as well. However the limitation of the case studies is the modest participation and representation of the innovative industries sectors which is also due to the common weakness of Russian industry overall. Still it is found that both cases created reasonable momentum for developing the regions in the STI dimension but also even broader in the economic and social welfare dimension.
    Keywords: regional foresight; roadmapping; scenarios; BRICS
    JEL: O11 O18 O32
    Date: 2014
  51. By: Roman Horváth (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nábreží 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic; Institute for East and Southeast European Studies, Regensburg, Germany); Júlia Jonášová (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nábreží 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic)
    Abstract: We examine whether central banks’ voting records help predict the future course of monetary policy in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Sweden and the United Kingdom, controlling for financial market expectations. Unlike previous research, first, we examine the period of the global financial crisis, characterized by a high level of uncertainty, and second, we examine the predictive power of voting records at longer time horizons, i.e., not only for the next monetary policy meeting. We find that voting records predict the policy rate set at the next meeting in all central banks that are recognized as independent. In some central banks, voting records are found—before, but not during, the financial crisis—to be informative about monetary policy even at more distant time horizons.
    Keywords: voting records, financial crisis, central bank, monetary policy
    JEL: D78 E52 E58
    Date: 2014–12
  52. By: Sergey G. Kosaretsky (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Irina G. Grunicheva (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Marina A. Pinskaya (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This article presents the results of a study on Russian education policy. It explores how compulsory and secondary education meet contemporary social challenges, and how they should be adjusted to account for acute social inequality. The authors present evidence of the growing social polarization in post-Soviet Russia. This is discussed against the current situation in compulsory and secondary education, which is characterized by strong differentiation between schools in terms of their performance, enrollment, and availability of resources. They further discuss the possible impact of major turns in Russia’s education policy on the processes of social stratification, and whether it was effective enough to provide equal access to quality education for all social groups. The analysis concludes by making several suggestions about how education policy in Russia needs to be adjusted for it to become more targeted and relevant to the context in which its education institutions operate.
    Keywords: educational inequality, social inequality, education policy, school social context, school resources, academic performance, post-soviet Russia, compulsory education, secondary education
    JEL: I28
    Date: 2014
  53. By: Yu, Bingxin; Chen, Kevin Z.; Zhang, Haisen
    Abstract: This paper provides a comprehensive review of agricultural policy and public agricultural expenditure (PAE) in China. China shifted away from taxing agriculture to supporting agriculture in the mid-2000s, but the sector faces mounting demographic, biophysical, and trade challenges. PAE in China is outpacing that of other developing economies in Asia, but its composition does not align perfectly with the development challenges and priorities the sector faces.
    Keywords: Agricultural research, Agriculture, public expenditure, Food safety, Environment, Poverty, Agricultural policies, Economic development, agricultural sector, composition, inequality,
    Date: 2014
  54. By: Fries, Jan
    Abstract: This study analyses the 2004 Eastern Enlargement to the European Union to obtain evidence on the employment effects of an increase in trade liberalisation. The Enlargement is thought to generate a trade-induced demand shock with no (or only limited) supply effects. Besides the variation over time induced by the Enlargement, identification of the effects is based on a Melitz (2003) type productivity term to differentiate firms by the extent of exposure to the demand shock. The idea is that the effects of the demand shock should be driven by differences in firm-level productivity from the period before the new member countries actually entered the EU. German linked employer-employee data allow to observe the relation of initial establishment productivity with employment changes over a long panel from 1995 to 2009. The estimates show that the Enlargement had a negative effect on establishment-level employment growth, which is driven by increased worker separations and increased job destruction. Besides the overall employment effect, the study focuses on effect heterogeneity across age and skill groups of the workforce. These estimates point to a skill bias in the effect of the Enlargement that disadvantages low- and medium-skilled workers in terms of higher worker separation and job destruction. In addition, lowskilled workers suffer fewer accessions by firms, where against medium-skilled workers enjoy increased accessions and creation of new jobs. Besides this indication for a skill bias, there are no clear indications that point to an age bias in the employment effect of the Eastern Enlargement.
    Keywords: market integration,productivity,worker flows,job flows,skills,age
    JEL: J21 J63
    Date: 2014
  55. By: Anastasia B. Likhacheva (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Igor A. Makarov (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: Though Siberia and the Russian Far East are often considered oil and gas reservoirs, the southern areas of these regions have significant potential for water-intensive production, such as agricultural goods, chemicals, pulp and paper, metals, hydro energy. This potential is strengthening due to the proximity of the most dynamic and water demanding region of the world—the Asian-Pacific region (APR), where the challenge of water and food security is recognized as strategic. Russian political discourse has always been determined by a Eurocentric focus which has seriously constrained intensive cooperation with Asia. This paper investigates the opportunities and challenges to Siberia and the Russian Far East from the perspective of interdependence theory and its water specification—the virtual water concept. The most significant outcomes of the research refer to both theory and strategy. We show that in some cases the virtual water trade may help the water economy on a global scale but worsen the long-term regional water security status and increase the level of water stress in particular areas. The implication for Russia and APR is that Russia’s integration into the APR virtual water market would provide considerable benefits for Russia which include economic gains. More importantly, according to the interdependence theory, as well as a defensive realism, Russia, acting as a guarantor of Asia’s food and water security, would provide long-term positive effects for the whole APR through reduced water stress, and the desecuritization of the food trade and water allocation in the region
    Keywords: virtual water, water scarcity; Asia-Pacific, Russian Far East, international trade, food security
    JEL: F50 F18 Q25
    Date: 2014

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