nep-tra New Economics Papers
on Transition Economics
Issue of 2015‒01‒09
37 papers chosen by
J. David Brown
United States Census Bureau

  1. Observed and unobserved regional determinants of FDI inflows: micro level analysis of the food industry firms in Russia By Anna Gladysheva; Tatiana Ratnikova
  2. EU, Russia and the reshaping of the post-Soviet economic space: an international trade analysis. By Maria Stella Chiaruttini
  3. Do Russian Firms Need ISO Certification for Exporting? By Victoria Golikova; Boris Kuznetsov
  4. New zoning Russia By Vladimir Gorbanyov
  5. Performance assessment of innovation infrastructure facilities in Russia By Vera Barinova; Alla Sorokina
  6. Coherence of the EU cohesion policy and national regional policy: the case of the Czech Republic By Jiøí Novosák
  7. Rebalancing the EU-Russia-Ukraine gas relationship By Agata Loskot-Strachota; Georg Zachmann
  8. Possible Economic Outcomes of a Trade Agreement with the European Union By Alexander Knobel; Bekhan Chokaev
  9. Fast-food consumption and child body mass index in China: Application of an endogenous switching regression model By Akpalu, Wisdom; Zhang, Xu
  10. The fiscal tools for regional support in the Russian Federation: the lines of improvement By Mikhail Milchakov
  11. Estimating the Preferences of Central Bankers : An Analysis of Four Voting Records By Eijffinger, S.C.W.; Mahieu, R.J.; Raes, L.B.D.
  12. Chinese urbanites and the preservation of rare species in remote parts of the country: The example of Eaglewood By Ahlheim, Michael; Frör, Oliver; Langenberger, Gerhard; Pelz, Sonna
  13. Economic Consequences of the Ukraine Conflict By Peter Havlik
  14. Far Eastern Federal District Development: Statistical and Economic Overview By Jevgenijs Leontjevs; Inna Dovladbekova
  15. Challenges of bank lending in Romania on short, medium and long-term By Zaman, Gheorghe; Georgescu, George
  16. Post-socialist urban development between polarisation an persistency. St. Petersburg in comparison to other selected post-socialist cities By Isolde Brade; Carola Neugebauer
  17. Transition and path-dependence in knowledge-intensive industry location: Case of Russian professional services By Denis Ivanov
  18. FDI Spillovers in Chinese Urban Agglomerations: Comparative Analysis of the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta By Yuyuan WEN
  19. Social infrastructure and the level of population's life of the North region By Nadezda Polevshchikova
  20. Harmonization of national indicators for sustainable development of the administrative-territorial units with the requirements of the international community By Petr Burak; Tatiana Zvorykina
  21. A Model of Competitive Saving Over the Life-cycle, and its Implications for the Saving Rate Puzzle in China By Guangyu Nie
  22. Spatial Dependence in House Prices: Evidence from China¡¯s Interurban Housing Market By Yunlong Gong; Peter Boelhouwer; Jan de Haan
  23. Institutions, Civil Society, Trust and Quality of Life: A Social Capital- And Social Identity-Based Approach. Evidence from the Russian Federation By Guido Sechi; Alexander Tatarko; Jurgis Skilters
  24. Total Factor Energy Efficiency of Yangtze River Delta Region in China By Jiuwen Sun; Shanshan Li
  25. Sources of exchange rate fluctuation in Vietnam: an application of the SVAR model By Nguyen Van, Phuong
  26. Regional Inflation and Financial Dollarization By Brown, M.; de Haas, R.; Sokolov, V.
  27. Testing 'the trilemma' in post-transitional Europe: a new empirical measure of capital mobility By Tomislav Globan
  28. Energy Transition to Renewables: Problems By Yuri Yegorov
  29. Knowledge-based local economic development in the less developed region: ELI Science Park in Hungary By Imre Lengyel; Miklós Lukovics; Szabolcs Imreh
  30. A Nonlinear Model to Estimate the Long Term Correlation between Market Capitalization and GDP per capita in Eastern EU Countries By Albu, Lucian Liviu; Lupu, Radu; Calin, Cantemir
  31. Fewer but Better: Sudden Stops, Firm Entry, and Financial Selection By Sînâ T. Ateş; Felipe E. Saffie
  32. Cross-border labour mobility: are East-West and East-East cross-border labour flows differ? By TIIU PAAS
  33. Research of pendular migration in the St. Petersburg?s agglomeration By Mikhail Petrovich; Leonid Losin; Lyudmila Istomina; Ilia Reznikov; Andrey Kostyuchenko
  34. Impact of aging on curative health care workforce. Country Report Poland By Stanislawa Golinowska; Agnieszka Sowa; Ewa Kocot
  35. Are children driving the gender wage gap? Comparative evidence from Poland and Hungary By Anna Lovasz; Ewa Cukrowska
  36. Alternative scenarios for regional growth in the context of the Cohesion Policy - an example of the region of Warmiñsko-Mazurskie. By Zbigniewa Mogila; Janusz Zaleski; Joanna Kudeko; Aleksandra Proproch
  37. Geographical labour mobility and cross-border labour movements between neighbouring countries By Tiiu Paas; Mart Kaska

  1. By: Anna Gladysheva; Tatiana Ratnikova
    Abstract: Observed and unobserved regional determinants of FDI inflows: micro level analysis of the food industry firms in Russia The development of Russian food industry is strategically important. Theoretically, the foreign capital inflow will help to renovate, modernize it and increase the productivity. But is it also interesting for foreign investors? What do foreign companies take into account when they invest in Russian food industry enterprises? Could it be special aspects of regional development (observed or unobserved) or only firm level data matters? Does the institutional environment in Russian regions significantly stimulate the inflow of foreign direct investment in Russian food industry enterprises or is the investor interested only in the size of a market? Two samples for 2009 and 2012 years of correspondingly about 5000 and about 7000 food industry companies of different subindustries from different Russian regions are analyzed to give the answer to these questions. The main idea of this investigation is to determine significant regional factors which effect the distribution of the FDI or to show that these items are not important for foreign investors. Russia has more than 80 regions and all of them are highly heterogeneous in terms of climate, geographical characteristics, level of economic and institutional development, industrial specialization, etc. Moreover, enterprises of different industries and subindustrues are different. In this research we take into account these facts investigating a hierarchical structure of the FDI distribution levels. This research consists of several parts: the theoretical part with hypotheses and the overview of the background and the empirical part with testing whether different regional characteristics like the infrastructure, taxation and the regulations in the region and in the neighboring ones play an important role. Spatial effects of these factors and of the economic development are also of our interest. The estimation of a multilevel binary model with spatial effects of analyzed factors gives the idea for the possible solution on the problem discovered above. The comparison of the results for two samples for different years and the investigation of dynamics also are taken into consideration. Keywords: foreign direct investment; food industry enterprises in Russia; Russian regions; multilevel binary model; spatial effects. JEL classification: C21; C25; D92; L66; O18; R12.
    Keywords: foreign direct investment; food industry enterprises in Russia; Russian regions; multilevel binary model; spatial effects. C21; C25; D92; L66; O18; R12.
    Date: 2014–11
  2. By: Maria Stella Chiaruttini
    Abstract: The last decades have witnessed the rise of a new wave of economic regionalism, the most remarkable example of which is the European Union. Regional economic integration is generally interpreted either as an attempt to resist the centrifugal forces of globalisation by strenghtening economic ties within a narrower area or as an intermediate step towards deeper integration at worldwide level. The ongoing evolution of the European Union makes it difficult to ascertain its real nature. At present, however, notwithstanding recent enlargements, the intra-EU trade share on total EU exchanges is declining while the dependence of the area on external markets, among which Russia, is increasing. The study of the economic and geopolitic relations between EU and Russia is rather intricate due to the overlapping of several scenarios. On the one hand there are the growing interconnections between EU and Russia which have led to envisage the creation of a Common Economic Space or even of a free trade zone, moving towards a pan-Eurasian economic block bridging the historic East-West divide. On the other hand there is the progressive penetration of the EU into the former Soviet space parallel to Russia's attempt to maintain its leading role in the East. From this perspective the EU may appear as a Western hegemon seeking to englobe an evergrowing periphery at the expense of a marginalised Russia. In this light the launching of the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia but especially the project of the Eurasian Economic Union would represent a Russia-inspired version of the EU in direct competition with the latter for the control of the post-Soviet space. Thus, instead of fading borders there would be two rival projects of regional integration. This interpretation is consistent with a view of regionalism as resistance not just to globalisation but specifically to EU's expansion. According to a different perspective, however, Eurasian integration might be seen as an intermediate stage alternative to an inclusion into the EU economic space. Leaving aside political considerations, the inclusion of a country into a regional block should be in principle motivated by a preexisting, although partial, de facto economic integration, to be furthered after formal accession. This contribution aims at providing an overview on the trade links between EU, Russia and the other transition economies, offering a background for the debate on the reshaping of the post-Soviet space. The questions to answer are: to what extent Russian and EU markets are interdependent; how far trade integration of the new accession countries inside the EU has progressed in comparison to that with Russia; and finally to which of the two regional blocks, the European or the Eurasian Economic Union, post-Soviet countries appear to be closer trade partners.
    Keywords: economic regionalism; European Union; post-Soviet states; transition economies
    JEL: F14 F15 P2
    Date: 2014–11
  3. By: Victoria Golikova; Boris Kuznetsov
    Abstract: We present some preliminary empirical results on impact of international certification on export behavior of Russian manufacturing firms. Our research is motivated, first, by the fact that little is known about the impact of ISO certification on the performance of Russian firms and, second, by unclear role of ISO certificate in week local institutional environment (where some firms simply buy these certificates without real audit and modernization of business processes). Russian medium and large enterprises in manufacturing are lagging far behind European peers both in terms of exporting activity and ISO certification level. We are trying to estimate the impact of international certification on the probability of a firm to be involved in foreign trade. We follow the general logic and methodology proposed in papers of Grajek (2004), Clougherty and Grajek (2008), Swann (2010), Otsuki (2011), Martincus et al. (2010), Masacure et al. (2009), Potoski and Prakash (2009). Empirical data comes from two rounds of nation-wide survey on the competitiveness of Russian manufacturing enterprises conducted in 2005 and 2009. We use a panel data from two rounds on approximately 500 firms in eight manufacturing industries. This gives us a unique opportunity to track the history of both availability of ISO certificate and exporting status of the firm. We use several different empirical models to examine the effect of certification on export activity and to control for possible endogeneity by estimating systems of simultaneous equations. We find evidence that ISO certification has a significant positive impact on probability of export if we control for self-selection effect for both export and ISO certification. Firms self-select for ISO by size and productivity as well as by being a supplier of a foreign-owned company in Russia. Then we compared two effects on export performance ? networking with foreign partners and ISO certification. We found out that while there is a direct positive impact of networking with foreign partners and certification on propensity to export, we were unable to find any significant impact of ISO certification on networking with foreign partners as a signal of "common language" that facilitate establishing partnership relations. We conclude that in the period analyzed these two institutions, both being important facilitators of exporting, worked individually.
    Keywords: ISO certification; export; manufacturing firms; Russia
    JEL: F14 L14 P23
    Date: 2014–11
  4. By: Vladimir Gorbanyov
    Abstract: Russia has 11 economic regions - areas that differ from one another in their specialization, a special place in the geographical division of labor. However, the economic zoning of Russia, played a great role in the development of the economic potential of the USSR, largely out of date. Many regions were formed over 70 years ago, they did not contribute to the formation of new market structures, do not consider social and environmental features of the territory, and poor fit with natural boundaries. Federal districts also do not exactly correspond to any modern scientific criteria. So several different classification areas, taking into account both socio- economic and natural features of the area in terms of market reforms are suggested. Central region - historical, political, economic center of the country. It includes 27 subjects of the Russian Federation. North region actually coincides with the same area, which had existed previously . It consists of 5 subjects of the Federation. South region - the breadbasket of Russia, comprising 10 federal subjects. The North Caucasus region - the smallest and most multicultural area of Russia. Consists of 7 Federation subjects - 7 republics. Ural-Volga region - Russia 's oldest industrial area, linking the European and Asian parts of Russia, consists of 8 subjects of the Federation. Western Siberia region - an area of new development - the main oil-gas region of Russia, consisting of 8 subjects of the Federation. North Siberian region - also the area of new development, the main diamond mining area, consisting of five subjects of the Federation . South Siberian region - the most developed part of Siberia, gravitating to Transsibirian Railway; includes 8 of the Federation. Far Eastern region - yet it is the least developed regions, although thanks to a wide outlet to the Pacific Ocean, abundant natural resources contains great enormous potential. It consists of five subjects of the Federation. As a result, 9 natural-economic regions are proposed to allocate in Russia, which are accompanied by statistical data: area, population, natural and mechanical growth of population, gross regional product per capita, percentage of the population below the poverty line, the human development index, the structure employment.
    Keywords: Russia; phisical geography; economics; R1
    Date: 2014–11
  5. By: Vera Barinova; Alla Sorokina
    Abstract: Performance assessment of innovation infrastructure facilities might be seen as one of the most topical issues of regional development in Russia. Due to the variety of infrastructure types, it's difficult to select the assessment indicators, for there are no generally accepted and integrated performance assessment measures, based on verifiable data according to the enquiries of the stakeholders. The article discusses ways to evaluate the efficiency of innovation infrastructure facilities in Russia. We assume, that innovation infrastructure can't be analyzed apart from the national innovation system it. It follows, that innovation infrastructure facilities performance is fully determined by the regional innovation system and its development. The aim was to find the optimum number of innovation infrastructure facilities, depending on the regions' level of innovative development. The research was based on the Miiris database (gathered by the National monitoring centre for innovation and scientific infrastructure and regional innovation systems), updated and enlarged. The total number of objects analyzed is 1158, situated in 75 regions of the Russian Federation, typically referred to technology&production (the most widespread group), consulting, financial and informational support, human capital (education), sales. To assess the sufficiency level authors use statistical methods for analyzing the relationship between the level of regional innovative development (defined according to the AIRR rating 2012) and the number of the innovation infrastructure facilities in Russian regions. The analysis has showed that the higher the level of regional innovative development is, the more innovation infrastructure facilities the region has. According to these results, the regions of Russia were divided into four groups: strong innovators (11), average+, average (28), average-, poor innovators (9). The analysis has also showed the possibility of determining the relevant number of innovative infrastructure facilities for each level of regional innovative development (defined by the regional innovative development index). This number demonstrates nonlinear growth from "poor" to "strong" innovators, that shows the synergy of the innovation potential accumulation in the regional economy. The important practical output is that building additional innovation infrastructure facilities in regions, described as "poor innovators", average- and in some cases average innovators - is ineffective, for there will be no demand for their services. In addition, authors propose a set of measures to improve the performance of the innovation infrastructure facilities, including the greater "soft infrastructure" involvement (ICT-facilities, social, professional and organizational networks) as the main way to enhance the private sector role in the regional innovative development.
    Keywords: Russian regions; innovation infrastructure; innovative development; ranking; performance indicators
    Date: 2014–11
  6. By: Jiøí Novosák
    Abstract: There is a high research and political interest in regional disparities now. Regional disparities are at the heart of prominent theories of regional development as well as of the ambitious project of European integration. Moreover, regional policies at various spatial levels are formulated in order to reduce the problems arising from large regional disparities. However, the multi-level character of regional policies evokes the question of their coherence. It is noteworthy that such a question is frequently mentioned in scholar literature but with limited empirical evidences. The intent of this paper is to contribute to the discussion on the coherence of regional policies, using the Czech Republic as a case study. The EU cohesion policy has become the dominant source of funding for regional development in the Czech Republic after its accession to the European Union in 2004. In addition, there is a national regional policy in the Czech Republic which defines the so called regions with concentrated state aid at the district level. The goal of this paper is to assess the spatial coherence of these two policies. In other words, the regional pattern of the EU cohesion policy expenditures in the programming period 2007-2013 in the Czech Republic is mapped considering the position of the regions with concentrated state aid. Besides the overall assessment, the spatial pattern of the EU cohesion policy expenditures is decomposed thematically as well. The assessment is based on the database of more than forty-six thousand projects which were co-financed from the EU cohesion policy. The main findings of the research point at ambivalent spatial coherence of the EU cohesion policy on one hand and Czech national regional policy on the other. Thus, there is not a relatively higher allocation of the EU cohesion policy expenditures in the regions with concentrated state aid. This is true also for thematic decomposition, and especially for more progressive themes such as R&D, innovation and new technologies. Altogether, the findings suggest that additional measurements are necessary in order to increase the spatial coherence of the policies. Some suggestions related to the territorially based instruments of the EU cohesion policy for the programming period 2014-2020 are given.
    Keywords: regional policy; EU cohesion policy; coherence of regional policies; Czech Republic;
    JEL: R12 R58 O18 O22
    Date: 2014–11
  7. By: Agata Loskot-Strachota; Georg Zachmann
    Abstract: The October 2014 agreement on gas supplies between Russia, Ukraine and the European Union did not resolve the Ukraine-Russia conflict over gas. The differences between parties in terms of objectives, growing mistrust and legacy issues make it unlikely that a long-term stable arrangement will be achieved without further escalation. Without EU pressure and support, Ukraine is likely to enter a new unfavourable gas arrangement with Russia, which could have repercussions beyond the energy sector. Key highlights: To reduce prices and increase the security of imports, the EU as a bloc should redefine its gas relationship with Russia and Ukraine and overcome the diverging interests of EU member states on second-order issues.Implementation of a joint strategy rests on enforcement of EU competition and gas market rules, a strengthened role for the Energy Community and the establishment of a market-based instrument for supply security.For Ukraine, the EU should serve as an anchor for comprehensive gas sector reform. Contingent on Ukraineâ??s reform efforts, EU financial and technical assistance, the enabling of reverse flows from the EU to Ukraine and pressure on Gazprom, should eventually enable Ukraine to obtain a sustainable gas-supply contract with Russia. This should make a sustainable and mutually beneficial Russia-Ukraine-EU gas relationship possible. However, during the transition, the EU should be prepared for possible frictions.
    Date: 2014–12
  8. By: Alexander Knobel (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Bekhan Chokaev (RANEPA)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the possible economic effects of Russia-EU free trade agreement, implying a mutual zero import tariffs in the trade of the Customs Union and the EU. Analysis of the effects is made using CGE Globe v1 model. We estimate the impact of an FTA on the economies, both at the level of the entire economy and at the industry level. The sensitivity analysis is made. It is shown that, in both relative and absolute terms, Russia potentially more benefits from the agreement than the EU. The cumulative gain of the CU is strictly positive, but the benefits and costs are unevenly distributed among its members, with negative effect for Belarus.
    Keywords: Customs Union, European Union, Free Trade Agreement, CGE
    JEL: C68 F15 F17
    Date: 2014
  9. By: Akpalu, Wisdom; Zhang, Xu
    Abstract: The rapid economic growth experienced within the past two decades in China highly correlates with childhood overweightness. The epidemic has become an issue of grave concern. A principal factor considered to be responsible for the epidemic in the literatu
    Keywords: child body mass index, fast-food consumption, endogenous switching regression model
    Date: 2014
  10. By: Mikhail Milchakov
    Abstract: The fiscal tools for regional support in the Russian Federation: the lines of improvement The Russian Federation features the significant socio-economic disparities among regions. That is why the federal support of regions in forms of different types of grants plays a very important role. The federal grants are allocated among regions on various purposes. For example, the Federal Fund for Financial Support of Regions (FFFSR) is used as an equalization tool. Federal government distribute grants in the form of "subsidy" which are used for co-financing regional expenditure functions in order to encourage the optimal provision of public services or to stimulate transformations in regional economy. The analysis of federal grants distribution practice shows the keen necessity of its improvement. In the area of the FFFSR usage it is possible to identify the following problems: a lot of regions (about 30 in 2014) have estimated fiscal capacity index after the FFFSR allocation that is less than the minimum level calculated in accordance with the Budget code and the methodology approved by Government Resolution No. 670 of November 22, 2004; the feature of the FFFSR contribution calculation when its amount in the following year cannot be less than the estimated amount fixed for a region on the planning period and the approach for stimulating regions with large increase in wage fund and profit tax (at the stage of calculating revenue capacity index for regions) distort the order of the FFFSR allocation on the fixed transparent need criteria. In the area of the "subsidies" usage it is possible to identify the following problems: a big number of narrow-targeted subsidies (more than 80 subsidies are allocated in 2014) which sometimes meet the same needs; late grants transferring from the federal level to regions during the fiscal year worsens the conditions for expenditure planning and reduces the effectiveness of subsidies usage on the side of regions; the lack of accountability for effective use of subsidies and meeting planned targets on the regional level. The problems of the FFFSR and subsidies allocation mentioned above are to be solved by implementing State programme «Measures for Effective and Responsible Management of Regional and Municipal Finances and Budget Stability of the Russian Regions» and by correcting the Regulations of projecting, provision and allocation of subsidies from the federal budget to the budgets of constituent entities of the Russian Federation (Government Resolution No. 392 of May 26, 2008).
    Keywords: subsidy; regional finances; fiscal capacity; transfer; grant
    Date: 2014–11
  11. By: Eijffinger, S.C.W. (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Mahieu, R.J. (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Raes, L.B.D. (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)
    Abstract: Abstract: This paper analyzes the voting records of four central banks (Sweden, Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic) with spatial models of voting. We infer the policy preferences of the monetary policy committee members and use these to analyze the evolution in preferences over time and the differences in preferences between member types and the position of the Governor in different monetary policy committees.
    Keywords: Ideal points; Voting records; Central Banking; NBP; CNB; MNB; Riksbank
    JEL: E58 E59 C11
    Date: 2013
  12. By: Ahlheim, Michael; Frör, Oliver; Langenberger, Gerhard; Pelz, Sonna
    Abstract: Based on a Contingent Valuation study in Shanghai we assess people's willingness to contribute personally to the alleviation of environmental problems occurring in distant parts of the country. One split of our survey assessed Shanghai residents' willingness to pay for the preservation of rainforest in Yunnan, while the other split referred to the willingness to pay for the preservation of a single plant species (i.e. eaglewood) growing in this rainforest. The objectives of this study were twofold. Firstly, we wanted to find out if people living in big Chinese cities like Shanghai take an interest in the environmental problems existing in some remote parts of the country and if they are willing to contribute personally to remedy these problems. Secondly, we wanted to learn more about the motivation behind this kind of empathy, if it exists. We were especially interested in the question if this empathy refers to the specific environmental problems we addressed in our surveys or if it is motivated more by a general feeling of obligation towards environmental issues.
    Keywords: Eaglewood,rubber cultivation,biodiversity preservation,contingent valuation,ecosystem services,China
    JEL: D61 Q51 Q57
    Date: 2014
  13. By: Peter Havlik (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: Summary The Ukraine conflict is having serious consequences not only for Russia and Ukraine, but it also potentially threatens to damage the still frail economic recovery in Europe. In Ukraine, which is the main victim of the conflict, the economy may decline by up to 8% this year. In Russia, the costs of the conflict are estimated to be in the tune of 1% of GDP in 2014-2016, primarily on account of increased investment risks. The effects on the individual EU countries differ depending on their exposure to the Russian market the Baltic States, Finland and several other new EU Member States are generally most affected. The impact on Austria is expected to be relatively modest. Austria is not overly exposed to the Russian market. For the EU as a whole, there are five industries where the share of Russia in total exports exceeds 3% textiles, pharmaceuticals, electrical equipment, machinery and transport equipment. On the assumption of a 10% loss in exports of goods and services to Russia, the estimated GDP loss would be about 0.4% for Lithuania and Estonia, and less than 0.1% for Austria. In absolute figures, Germany might lose around EUR 3 billion, followed by Italy (EUR 1.4 billion), France, Great Britain and Poland (EUR 0.8 billion each). Austria could lose close to EUR 300 million in this scenario. The estimated impact of Russia’s ban on agro-food imports from the EU imposed in August 2014 is expected to be the highest in the Baltics. These losses are undoubtedly painful, yet manageable (a trade decline bigger than 10% would obviously lead to greater losses). The question is whether these losses are justifiable and will achieve the desired effects – to change Russia’s behaviour in Ukraine and beyond.
    Keywords: sanctions, foreign trade, economic growth
    JEL: E61 F15 F51
    Date: 2014–11
  14. By: Jevgenijs Leontjevs; Inna Dovladbekova
    Abstract: The main aim of this paper is to define weak spots in the Far Eastern federal district's development in comparison with other federal districts in the Russian Federation based on a statistical and economic analysis, and shape general conclusions on possible improvement of the economic development of the region. Socio-economic disparities between regions are an important issue in many countries. Both state legislation's and governmental institutions' goal is to reduce or eliminate imbalance between regions by implementing regional development plans, creating funds and policies in order to ensure security, stability and prosperity. Regional economic growth and development encompasses multiple disciplines, including geography and planning, regional science, entrepreneurship, technology policy and economics. Bearing different regional development terms put forward by scientists and international organisations it can be pointed out that regional development policy has evolved over the last 50 years from simpler massive investment into infrastructure development to an understanding of region's unique features in order to uncover full potential of the region's competitive advantages by certain plans and policies. Understanding the region's socio-economic, geographical and cultural features is key for elicitation of regional competitive advantages and development policy proposition. Moreover, policy effectiveness assessment backed by a detailed analysis is crucial for new regional development policy proposition. It must be taken into account that despite significant investment projects, aid for growth and regional development some of the largest federal districts by area, in Russia, still fall behind other homeland regions in manufacturing, mining and quarrying, electricity, gas and water: the economic sectors that comprise a powerhouse of the national economy. The underdevelopment some of the largest federal districts of the Russian Federation, regional administrative management inefficiencies and failure to use development funds and programs to their full potential present severe development obstacles and socio economic threats in the future. Policy makers must assess the effectiveness of federal investments, financial aid, foreign investments and overall investment climate and identify major areas of improvement. Moreover, policy makers should work towards improvement of the existing regional strategy or develop a new regional development initiative that includes possible solutions for problematic issues. A new economic development initiative that provides funding for large scale manufacturing deployment projects that encourage economic growth and substitute imported machinery, equipment and vehicles in Far Eastern federal district must be development and implemented.
    Keywords: regional development; statistical analysis
    JEL: O11 O20
    Date: 2014–11
  15. By: Zaman, Gheorghe; Georgescu, George
    Abstract: The research focuses on several challenges on short, medium and long term bank lending in Romania, taking into consideration a series of economic and social criteria as well as different types of loans. At the same time, special attention is paid to the post-accession into the EU impact and to the financial and economic effects of the international crisis. The main results of the research are expected to point out the necessity of structural improvements in the field of long-term loans contributing to investments boosting as a vital prerequisite for Romania’s economy sustainable development. Meanwhile it is worth mentioning the intensity and duration of the crisis in Romania compared to other developed and emerging EU member countries. The importance of addressing causes that hinder the monetary policy transmission channels, lending sustainable re-launching, more involvement of banks in European funds absorption and growing market share for banks with domestic capital, are highlighted as main conclusions resulting from the study.
    Keywords: bank lending; international crisis; post-accession and crisis impact; monetary policy transmission channels; long-term credits; investments
    JEL: E43 E52 E58 F34 G21
    Date: 2014–10
  16. By: Isolde Brade; Carola Neugebauer
    Abstract: ERSA abstract St. Petersburg Post-socialist urban development between polarisation an persistency. St. Petersburg in comparison to other selected post-socialist cities Abstract The change in societal system since the 1990s has been shaping the city regions in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). The urban social space has transformed as well, reflecting changed local housing markets and qualities, new housing preferences and increased residential mobilities among city dwellers. So more than 20 years of societal transformation, distinct socio-spatial development trends have emerged, new processes loom, and the contexts and factors determining these developments are becoming evident. The presentation demonstrates the gained insights by primary, comparative case study research which was carried out in the CEE urban regions of Leipzig, Budapest, Vilnius, Sofia and St. Petersburg. The focus lies on the development in St Petersburg in comparison to the other case studies. The authors reveal on the one hand similar trends of socio-spatial development in CEE urban regions. On the other hand, the authors argue for differentiated patterns of socio-spatial developments in the city regions after 1990, which reflect the different paths of post-socialist urban development ? paths that are based on the hybrid eclipsing and diverse forms of socialist and transformative legacy as well as transnational influence.
    Keywords: social-spatial differentiation; post-socialist city; polarisation; housing
    Date: 2014–11
  17. By: Denis Ivanov
    Abstract: This paper searches for roots of current spatial pattern of professional services in location of Soviet-era R&D sector. The Soviet economy sponsored massive R&D oriented mainly on military purposes. Research was carried out in large institutions affiliated with academia or industry. After the collapse of socialism, military spending and related R&D decreased dramatically. Many researchers left Soviet-style institutions and succeed in the market economy. Did however this process mean anything for geography? Under the centrally planned economy, locational decisions were driven by non-market motives. Moreover, it was near-impossible for planners to anticipate which regions would be more promising under market. I focus on professional services since these industries do not rely on physical capital endowments, so sunk costs are unlikely to impose path-dependence. Professional services in Russia typically hire young educated persons which are expected to be mobile, so imperfect labor market is also unlikely to stick people to places ? unlike human capital externalities which are plausibly to do so. I regress employment in professional services in 2009-2011 by 76 Russian regions on the number of R&D staff in 1991. I consider three industries: architecture and engineering; information technology; accounting, auditing and management consulting. Controls to capture industry location fundamentals include modern-day gross regional product or overall employment, number of employees with university degree, number of R&D staff and urbanization. It should be noted that present-day number of R&D staff comprises primarily employees of state-owned Soviet-style institutions while professional service providers are typically up-to-date privately-owned firms. Results reveal that employment in Soviet R&D positively and significantly affects present-day employment in engineering and in IT. No such evidence is found for accounting, auditing and management consulting in which industries researchers' skills were less relevant. Results remains when shares in employment of professional services and R&D sector are plugged into regression instead of absolute numbers. I consider different explanations for this phenomenon. I attempt to track influence of 1991 R&D-related employment on current output-per-worker in IT and engineering and find positive correlation, although marginally significant. So, it is unlikely that Soviet-era pools of human capital created regional poverty traps due to low migration rates, and human capital externalities theory seems plausible. I also find that regions with greater number of R&D staff in 1991 now have greater number of SMEs both in business services and in the rest of economy, so entrepreneurship is a likely mechanism to impose path-dependence.
    JEL: N74 R12
    Date: 2014–11
  18. By: Yuyuan WEN
    Abstract: Using panel data covering 25 cities in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) and 21 cities in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) over the 1991-2010 period, the paper applies spatial Durbin model with ML estimation techniques to examine the underlying relationship between the productivity of the host cities and FDI spillovers. The main findings are as follows. First, significant positive impacts of FDI on the local city's growth exist and increase over time, while spatial spillovers of FDI on growth present significantly but behave oppositely in YRD and PRD. Second, spatial interaction plays an important and non-negligible role in urban productivity growth; however, in the long term, YRD and PRD have significant but opposite spatial effects of growth. Third, inclusion of FDI raises the speed of conditional convergence of economic growth in YRD and PRD (for the case of single-regime). Fourth, positively spatial spillover of growth occurs in both regimes of YRD, while negatively spatial spillover for the case of PRD. The results here suggest important policy implications for the two regions to attract FDI and promote urban development.
    Keywords: FDI; spillovers; spatial Durbin model; Yangtze River Delta; Pearl River Delta
    JEL: C31 F21 F23
    Date: 2014–11
  19. By: Nadezda Polevshchikova
    Abstract: Political, economic, social changes that take place nowarday and refflected in the dinamiks of territirial organization of the sociaty. The Republic of Karelia has a profitable economic and geographical position in one of the federal regions, Northwest federal region of Russia . The big amount of neighbors, good transport availability create beneficial prerequisites for development. Administrative formations ? "neighbors" are of different social-economic development. The peculiarities of the outer border which influence the development of the trans-border region are of special importance. Two basic factors play the significant role in the reform of socio-economic space of Karelia: (1) inner, aroused by socio-economic changes within the country and (2) outer, forming out under the influence of the processes taking place in other countries. These factors make the changes vivid in different levels: spatial, of a branch of industry, organizational, ownership level, socio-cultural and educational levels. Level and speed of reforms depend on many reasons including the possibilities to set up and implement different forms of cooperation as well as attitude of the administration towards trans-border cooperation. Under their influence there are changes is both 'the quality' and the 'quantity' of services of social infrastructure. The areal level the following processes take place: the polarization of the level and the quality of services between "centre" and "periphery" of different territorial levels; -between territories having profitable geographical location and other inner territories; -between urban and rural areas, culture and science; that reduced the "quality" of services. Permanent innovation activity creates favorable conditions for its further development within the limits of the nucleus, generating attendant conditions, including service conditions. The activization of private undertaking, market regulating mechanisms accelerated centripetal movement of the capital, directed at the development of social infrastructure of Karelia. The objects of social infrastructure are created at places where the biggest profit can be attained in the short time. As a result, shops, hotels, ets. are built in the capital. In regional centers - fewer shops, hotels, etc. are built. And rural area loses the existing objects; almost nothing is built, except private houses. More qualitative services are traditionally given in towns. Services gradually "leave" rural areas ? many objects of social infrastructure are closed. The lack of budget assignations sharpened the problems of material-technical provision of state institutions of education, health service. Social infrastructure of Republic Karelia is undergoing the stage of reforming. While negative processes dominate in rural areals, positive tendencies of innovations exist, though they still have a hearth character.
    Keywords: R 19 Urban; rural; regional; border region; north region; social infrastructure; social-economic transformation
    Date: 2014–11
  20. By: Petr Burak; Tatiana Zvorykina
    Abstract: Russia's participation in global economic processes and joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) are aiming at harmonization of the quality of life indicators of the administrative-territorial units' population with the requirements of the international community. The need in the theoretical justification for the methods on establishing and evaluating of the quality of life indicators is recognized by all researchers of the territories sustainable development process. Currently there is no universally accepted integral index, both in Russia and abroad, which could be used to calculate the development of any economic system based on the sustainable development. At the initiative of the World Bank the task on scientific substantiation of the indicators for sustainable development of territories was entrusted to the Canadian specialists in the field of regional development. The above work has been completed and logically followed by the creation of a draft international standard 'Sustainable development of society - indicators on municipal services and quality of life' by the ISO/TC 268. The standard contains a set of various indicators allowing to establish the sustainable development indicators that can be presented in a clear and fairly simple way to a wide range of stakeholders providing information on the quality of accommodation at the relevant territory. Such information can serve as an objective measure on the competitiveness level of an administrative-territorial unit and a criterion for choosing it as an investment object. To assess the activities efficiency of executive and local self-governing authorities the President of the Russian Federation has issued decrees of August 21, 2012 ¹ 1199 and of October 14, 2012 ¹ 1384 on the relevant evaluation to be carried out. Statistic data prepared in accordance with the above decrees reflects absolute and relative indicators of socio-economic development and their dynamics in the national economy. However, the results of the above assessment cannot give a direct answer regarding the competitiveness of the administrative - territorial units and the quality of life. Given that Russia is a member of the WTO and carries out harmonization of its activities with those of the international community, there was a need in creation of a national technical committee on standardization in the field of sustainable development of the administrative-territorial formations. Such committee ? TC 115 "Sustainable development of administrative-territorial units' was created by Rosstandart on the initiative of the State Centre 'Test ? St. Petersburg' with the support of the regional authorities, scientific and public organizations.
    Keywords: indicators; administrative-territorial unit; sustainable development; competitiveness; quality of life;
    JEL: R1
    Date: 2014–11
  21. By: Guangyu Nie
    Abstract: This paper develops a life-cycle model with multi-dimensional matching in a frictionless marriage market where a single man's rank is determined by his age and wealth relative to others'. Using stable matching patterns, we analyze how people's marital age and saving behavior jointly respond to marriage market shocks. In particular, with wealth as a status good for mating competition, an otherwise standard age profile of savings exhibits an unusual pattern with younger households having relatively high saving rates compared to the middle-aged. This result is consistent with recent empirical findings from China. In addition, both the age gap between spouses and the aggregate saving rate rise when the sex ratio increases. Neglecting the response in marital ages will lead to an overstatement of the effect of the sex ratio imbalance on the increase of the aggregate saving rate.
    JEL: J11 J12 D10 E21
    Date: 2014–11–29
  22. By: Yunlong Gong; Peter Boelhouwer; Jan de Haan
    Abstract: ¡°Spatial thinking¡± is increasingly popular in housing market studies and spatial dependence across properties has been widely investigated in the intra-city housing market. The contribution of this paper is to study the spatial dependence and spillover effect of house prices from an interurban perspective, referring to the spatial interaction across local housing markets. The extensive literature study concludes that following behavior, migration and equity transfer and spatial arbitrage of capital are the main behavioral reasons for interurban spatial interaction. Using a cross-sectional data set in eastern China, our empirical results from both parametric and nonparametric approaches provide strong evidence of spatial interaction in the interurban housing market. The parametric results suggest that the spatial lag model (SAR) is the best model specification to describe the interurban house price process, indicating an endogenous interaction pattern. Ignoring such interaction effect in the house price model will produce biased coefficients estimators and misleading interpretation. In SAR model, Spillover effects of explanatory variables caused by spatial interaction are calculated by partial derivative interpretation approach and are demonstrated to have the magnitude as much as half of their direct effects. Moreover, the comparison between different spatial weighted matrices reveals that the spatial interaction depends not only on distances, but also on the economic situation of each jurisdiction. Meanwhile, nonparametric approach draws a flexible relationship between spatial dependence and geographical distances. Using spline correlogram, we find monotonically declined spatial autocorrelation of house prices and explanatory variables within larger distances, whereas the significant spatial autocorrelation of OLS residuals can only be observed at short distance (60 Km). The spillover effect, being obtained from spatial covariance decomposition, is highly significant and declines within the radius of 250 Km. All the nonparametric results imply that though the house price determinants can satisfyingly account for the interurban house prices, the importance of spillover effect cannot be neglected within certain distances. That is the neighbor¡¯s housing market situation is quite useful in predicting the house price of a particular city. This study provides a good insight into explaining why the house prices in some cities always run above the level indicated by fundamentals, and highlights the importance of cooperation between local governments in making the housing policy.
    Keywords: Spatial autocorrelation; spillover effect; interurban housing market; spatial econometrics; nonparametric estimation; China;
    JEL: R31 C21
    Date: 2014–11
  23. By: Guido Sechi; Alexander Tatarko; Jurgis Skilters
    Abstract: Many scholars, since the early 2000s, advocate for the integration of institutionalist and communitarian views of social capital generation in order to explain civil society dynamics, in particular in countries ? such as former communist states - characterized by transitional processes, with a relevant impact on the structure of societies, and by peculiar features of social networking. According to such a view, the civil society is the resultant of a combination of factors related to the social structure of the social community and the institutional environment, and the ways in which such levels interact. This view is, in a broader sense, an attempt at investigating in a more effective way the way in which social assets in society are generated, and their relation with socio-economic and sustainable development. However, attempted empirical analysis on the basis of such an approach have been mainly carried out at macro level, this way overlooking, to a large extent, the individual determinants of social capital and civic engagement, and the interplay of perceptions of community and institutions and social attitudes. The present paper is an attempt at conciliating the institutionalist and communitarian frameworks through a micro level-focused model, able to investigate the linkage between institutional climate and civic engagement and trust with the support of social psychology theories (in particular, social identity theory). In detail, the proposed approach emphasizes the linkages existing between perceptions of institutional behaviour and civil society empowerment on the one hand, and individual engagement and trust in the society and civil identity on the other; it also focuses on the way in which perceptions and attitudes are related to quality of life (measured in terms of well-being and job-related satisfaction). The analysis is based on over 2000 observations from two macrodistricts of the Russian Federation (Central and North Caucasus okrugs) and over 1000 from the Republic of Latvia. The proposed model investigates the possible causal chain existing between perceptions of civil society empowerment, trust towards institutions, civic engagement, trust and tolerance in the society, and quality of life perception, through a structural equation modelling-based quantitative approach for ordinal variables. Socio-demographic and socio-cultural features (e.g. ethno-religious self-identification, level of education, political affiliation, profession) are accounted for as control variables.
    JEL: Z10 B52 D83 C01
    Date: 2014–11
  24. By: Jiuwen Sun; Shanshan Li
    Abstract: Energy is always the important material for economic growth and social development. A new index of energy efficiency called total factor energy efficiency (TFEE) consists of energy, capital, labor and other input that produce GDP as output. TFEE index is accounted by DEA through multiple input-output frameworks. Malmquist index measures productivity changing in two periods. Then decomposed the Malmquist index into efficiency change (EFFCH) and technical change (TECH) to estimate whether EFFCH or TECH influence TFEE. This paper analyze the energy consumption of two provinces and one city in Yangtze River Delta region, in terms of the quality of energy consumption and intensity of energy consumption. It shows that the increasing rate of energy consumption in the Yangtze River Delta was slowing down by using the absolute quantity of energy consumed in the region and its proportion in the country. Then the total factor energy efficiency of the Yangtze River Delta region was estimated by using the Yangtze River Delta region's energy consumption and economic growth data during from 1992 to 2010, based on DEA-Malmquist. The changes of total factor energy efficiency can be decomposed in energy efficiency and find the energy efficiency trends. The empirical results show that the Yangtze River Delta region, due to technological progress and technical efficiency, pulls together all the elements of energy efficiency. With time as a dimension, from 1992 to 2008, the TFEE is greater than 1, which means that the TFP is increasing and reaches the efficient frontier in the Yangtze River Delta Region. In a deeper analysis, the trend of total factor energy efficiency shows a W pattern, with the high point appearing in 1998 and 2007 by 5.4% and 5.2% respectively. And the main cause is the technical progress. With region as a dimension, from 1992 to 2008, the TFEE of the provinces and one city in the Yangtze River Delta Region are greater than 1. It indicates that the TFE climbs and reaches the efficient frontier. However, in Shanghai the TFEE is 1.060 which is the highest, followed by Jiangsu and Zhejiang.
    Keywords: Energy consumption; Economic growth; Energy efficiency; DEA-Malmquist
    Date: 2014–11
  25. By: Nguyen Van, Phuong
    Abstract: Vietnam has been implementing the export-oriented economy, in which the central bank of Vietnam, well-known as the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), adopted the managed float exchange rate regime in 1990. Therefore, the exchange rate movement plays an important role in stimulating the Vietnamese export activities. By applying the long-run SVAR model, pioneered by Blanchard and Quah (1989), this research examines how the real and nominal shocks impact the nominal and real exchange rate (USD/VND) in Vietnam. Based on monthly data concerning USD/VND exchange rate and, the price levels in Vietnam and the United States from May 1995 to December 2013, our empirical results reveal that: the real shock primarily leads the real and nominal exchange rate (USD/VND) to fluctuate over time. Meanwhile, the nominal shock has a temporary effect on the movement in the real exchange rate in Vietnam. Our research also finds that the long-run Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) does not hold in Vietnam.
    Keywords: State Bank of Vietnam, the exchange rate, unit root test, SVAR
    JEL: E50 E58 E60 E69
    Date: 2014–12–12
  26. By: Brown, M. (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); de Haas, R. (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Sokolov, V.
    Abstract: Abstract: We exploit variation in consumer price inflation across 71 Russian regions to examine the relationship between the perceived stability of the local currency and financial dollarization. Our results show that regions with higher inflation experience an increase in the dollarization of household deposits and a decrease in the dollarization of (long-term) household credit. The negative impact of inflation on credit dollarization is weaker in regions with less-integrated banking markets, suggesting that the asset-liability management of banks constrains the currency-portfolio choices of households.
    Keywords: Financial dollarization; financial integration; regional inflation
    JEL: E31 E42 E44 F36 G21 P22 P24
    Date: 2013
  27. By: Tomislav Globan (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb)
    Abstract: This paper develops a new empirical measure of capital mobility. It tests the hypothesis that the degree of capital mobility can be estimated by measuring the reaction intensity of capital flows to shocks in interest rates, on a sample of eight European post-transitional economies. This hypothesis can be derived from the Mundell-Fleming open economy model, implications of which are essentially based on the assumption of a close link between the degree of capital mobility in a country and the reaction of its capital flows to changes in domestic and external interest rates. Precisely because of this interrelationship, policy holders, in theory, face the policy trilemma or the 'impossible trinity', i.e. the inability to achieve three following objectives simultaneously – a stable exchange rate, financial openness, and an independent monetary policy. Using impulse response and historical decomposition analysis in a VAR framework, the results show a significant increase in the explanatory power of interest rates for the movement of capital flows shortly before and after the accession of post-transitional economies to the European Union. On the other hand, the recent financial crisis made capital flows less sensitive to interest rates due to increased risk aversion on international capital markets. Results suggest that the degree of capital mobility, i.e. the level of financial integration with EU-15, is highest in Bulgaria, Latvia and Lithuania, and least pronounced in Poland and Croatia. Results are verified by a number of robustness checks, with three separate alternative measures of capital mobility confirming the results obtained from the econometric model.
    Keywords: capital flows; capital mobility; the trilemma; impossible trinity; interest rate shocks; VAR model; historical decomposition
    JEL: F21 F32 F36
    Date: 2014–11–21
  28. By: Yuri Yegorov
    Abstract: What will come first ? non-acceptable global warming or extinction of oil reserves? Both processes can bring substantial costs to the mankind, but their order has important economic implications. The answer to this question will either lower oil price in the long run or will lead to its further rise. It is very important for Russian economy. From the global perspective, both dangers should be taken into account, and transition to renewable energies is the only remedy for both. However, the optimal speed of this transition depends on temporal dynamics of both threats that is highly uncertain at this moment. The goal of this paper is to review the problems with different renewable energies and to outlay different scenarios for the timing of major impact from global warming and oil peak. The problems with renewable energies have mostly economic origin. The global resources of hydropower are limited. While wind is already cheap, it should be balanced due to stochastic supply. Solar energy also needs to be balanced and is still relatively expensive. Oil products and their liquid renewable substitutes (biofuels) will thus remain an important compliment to electricity in the long run. However, biofuels are competing with agriculture for land, and thus can replace only a limited fraction of energy. The first signs of global warming bring the costs today and it comes as increased frequency of extreme weather phenomena (hurricanes, floods, etc). The rate of temperature increase has some range of uncertainty but it generally accepted that +2 degrees is an acceptable limit, and it might come in the middle of the 21st century. One of the policies to deal with it is not to extract all fossil fuels from the ground. However, it is highly likely that all oil will be extracted before global warming will have severe consequences. Since only biofuels can substitute oil in transport, given the current trend in transportation, peak oil can cause too much demand for biofuels, that will be dangerous for food security. Both the price of oil and biofuels would rise to such level, that current level of transportation will be impossible. This can cause resettlement of people to smaller cities. It is possible to conclude that while renewable energies represent a remedy, full transition will not be easy.
    Keywords: renewable energies; transition; problems; global warming; peak oil
    JEL: Q31 Q42 Q54
    Date: 2014–11
  29. By: Imre Lengyel; Miklós Lukovics; Szabolcs Imreh
    Abstract: The Extreme Light Infrastructure (ELI) project is an integral part of a certain generation of planned and currently constructed research facilities that are held together by the European Strategy Forum on Research Infrastructures (ESFRI). The ELI is the world's first establishment that will enable the examination of the reactions between light and matter on a far more intense level including the so-called ultra-relativistic range. The research project will be carried out in 3 countries, facilities will be built in the Czech Republic, Romania and Hungary independently. The ELI Attosecond Light Pulse Source (ELI-ALPS) laser facility will be built in Szeged, Hungary in the less-developed Southern Great Plain region, from a budget of 200 million euros. The future buildings will not only give place to laser devices, but they also ensure an adequate amount of area for offices, seminar and conference rooms, a library and social places for about 150 researchers and administrative personnel. This investment will give Hungary and also Szeged the chance to strengthen their local scientific capacities and to trigger the initiation of knowledge-based economic development projects. The ELI-ALPS laser facility will require 10 acres and will built on the 110 acre property of one of Hungary's most noted universities, the University of Szeged, which currently educates 30 000 students. The main concepts indicate that around the ELI-ALPS a science park will emerge and will be focused on knowledge-based activities. The planned ELI Science Park will be quite specific and unique compared to other territorial concentrations (industrial parks, industrial areas, other science parks, etc.) and will closely relate to the high-quality IT, medical imaging, biotechnology, pharmaceutical and materials science activities of the University of Szeged. In this study we attempt to summarize the characteristics of a local area that is able to accommodate the ELI-ALPS and the ELI Science Park based on international scientific results and experiences. After analysing the current situations, we propose a development concept that will mark out realistic connections between the local economy and R&D infrastructures. An important element of this is local embedment. Within the confines of this - among other things - we suggest economic and entrepreneurial development projects that are able to create the opportunity of collaboration between the world class R&D infrastructure and local enterprises and measure up to our expectations.
    Keywords: science park; local economic development; knowledge-based facilities
    JEL: O18 O32 R11 R30
    Date: 2014–11
  30. By: Albu, Lucian Liviu (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy); Lupu, Radu (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy); Calin, Cantemir (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy)
    Abstract: The connection between the macroeconomic development on one hand and the stock market dynamics on the other hand is the focus of many research initiatives. We are trying to apply the methodology used in the field of macroeconomic convergence to the dynamics of market capitalization for European economies. Under the general standard form of the convergence theory, which states that in the long run, as income per capita increases its corresponding growth rate will decrease, we propose a non-linear model that simulates the convergence based on data for the Central and Eastern European countries pursuing the estimation of a theoretical (hypothetical) optimal trend with respect to certain rational criteria. The model is applied on both macroeconomic variables and the market capitalization and we relate the differences that were found to the increased volatility of the latter set of data.
    Keywords: market capitalization, GDP per capita, nonlinear models, eastern EU countries.
    JEL: C51 C53 G17
    Date: 2014–11
  31. By: Sînâ T. Ateş (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania); Felipe E. Saffie (Department of Economics, University of Maryland)
    Abstract: We combine the real business cycle small open economy framework with the endogenous growth literature to study the productivity cost of a sudden stop. In this economy, productivity growth is determined by successful implementation of business ideas, yet the quality of ideas is heterogeneous and good ideas are scarce. A representative financial intermediary screens and selects the most promising ideas, which gives rise to a trade-off between mass (quantity) and composition (quality) in the entrant cohort. Chilean plant-level data from the sudden stop triggered by the Russian sovereign default in 1998 confirms the main mechanism of the model, as firms born during the credit shortage are fewer, but better. A calibrated version of the economy shows the importance of accounting for heterogeneity and selection, as otherwise the permanent loss of output generated by the forgone entrants doubles, which increases the welfare cost by 30%.
    Keywords: Financial Selection, Sudden Stop, Endogenous Growth, Firm Entry, Firm Heterogeneity
    JEL: F40 F41 F43 O11 O16
    Date: 2014–11–17
  32. By: TIIU PAAS
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to outline differences in the socio-demographic and employment characteristics of Estonian people who have worked in a neighbouring country ? Finland, Sweden, Latvia or Russia. The empirical part of this paper relies on data from CV Keskus ? an online employment portal bringing together jobseekers and vacant job posts. The results of our analysis show that different destination regions ? the wealthier countries of Finland and Sweden (referred to as East-West mobility) and Latvia and Russia (referred to as East-East mobility) have attracted workers with different personal and job-related characteristics. Ethnicity and higher education are important determinants in explaining differences between East-West and East-East labour flows. Non-Estonians and people with a higher education have been less likely to work in Finland or Sweden (East-West mobility).
    Keywords: international labour mobility; cross-border labour flows; East-West and East-East labour migration; Estonia
    JEL: J61 O57 R P52
    Date: 2014–11
  33. By: Mikhail Petrovich; Leonid Losin; Lyudmila Istomina; Ilia Reznikov; Andrey Kostyuchenko
    Abstract: The population of the Petersburg's city agglomeration on January 1, 2012 was about 5,9 million people, the territory area -- 11,6 thousand km ². The borders, spatial and structural features of the Petersburg's city agglomeration are defined by JSC "Peterburgsky NIPIGrad" within works on justification of the design solutions of St. Petersburg Master plan 2005 As the core of the Petersburg's agglomeration, the central part of the city St. Petersburg with a very high building density was defined (the total area of 65 thousand hectares, about 50% of the whole city territory), including the historical center, industrial belt, regions of an industrial housing estate. For agglomerations considerable scales of pendular migrations are typical, thus it is considered that not fewer than 90-95% of daily trips with the labor, business, educational and cultural and community purposes are made within external borders of the agglomeration. The zone of intensive recreational cyclic migrations usually also doesn't go beyond external borders of the city agglomeration, but the share of all the number of such trips within these borders is usually smaller, than in case of labor trips : 75?80%. When studying the ways of participants movement, one of the tools of the measurement of pendular migration volumes is the registration of the passenger traffic and the vehicles streams on the border of the agglomeration core. The registration results can be also used while creating a mathematical model describing the formation and distribution of the streams in the agglomeration transport network. The authors of the present article used the materials of the passenger traffic research on the different means of transport conducted for the Leningrad administration in 1987 and also the materials of the research completed by JSC "Peterburgsky NIPIGrad" together with St. Petersburg Means of communication State University in 2003 and 2011. The total passenger traffic on all entrances to the Petersburg's agglomeration core during three hours in the morning period of the working day peak loadings was in 2011 about 169 thousand people, which was 18% more, than in 2003 and 43% more, than in 1987. The exit stream also increased and became about 97 thousand passengers which was 37% more than in 2003 and 11% more than in 1987. It should be noted that the increase in the number of the resident population couldn't affect the increase in the volumes of passengers transportation between the agglomeration core and surrounding settlements. This indicator just now is starting to reach the level of 1987. Probably, the growth of passengers transportation volume is connected with an increase in the general population mobility and with a change in the difference of migratory capacities of St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region.
    Keywords: agglomeration; pendular migration; traffic; transport; mobility
    Date: 2014–11
  34. By: Stanislawa Golinowska; Agnieszka Sowa; Ewa Kocot
    Abstract: The report discusses employment in the health care system in Poland based on analysis and projections of the demand and supply of medical workforce. The impact of the financial situation and policy on relativelly low employment level of medical personel was accounted for in the analysis while projections were driven by demographic changes in the following two decades. Results of different demographic variants of projections used in Neujobs project and additional scenarios show that while ageing is an important factor that may stimulate demand for provision of medical personnel, changes might be mitigated by further increase in efficiency of care. At the same time the supply of care will be affected by ageing too. The results indicate that more detailed monitoring of employment in the future will be needed in order to assure adequacy of provision of medical professionals, especially of nurses (critical gap), some medical specialists, physiotherapists and medical technical personnel.This report was prepared within a research project entitled NEUJOBS, which has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no. 266833.
    Keywords: Health Care, Employment in Health Care, Employment Projections, Labor Resources in Health, Medical Professions
    JEL: H51 H75 I18
    Date: 2014
  35. By: Anna Lovasz (Institute of Economics, Center for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences and Department of Economics, Eötvös Lorand University); Ewa Cukrowska (Faculty of Economic Sciences - University of Warsaw)
    Abstract: We examine how much children and responsibilities related with them contribute towards the divergence of men’s and women’s wages, and consequently, to the formation of the gender wage gap. To derive the relative contribution of gender specific wage inequalities caused by the parenthood to the overall gender wage gap, we provide a modification of standard Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition method, and correct simultaneously for selection into work and parenthood. Contrary to our expectations, the findings show that most of the gender wage inequality is due to the positive wage gap between men who do and do not have children and not due to the wage penalty incurred by mothers.
    Keywords: Gender Wage Gap, Family Gap, Motherhood Penalty, Wage Gap Decomposition
    JEL: J13 J22
    Date: 2014–07
  36. By: Zbigniewa Mogila; Janusz Zaleski; Joanna Kudeko; Aleksandra Proproch
    Abstract: The comprehensive and complex category of territorial capital is regarded as a crucial driving force behind regional development. It does, however, depend upon increasingly growing tangible and intangible interlinks and interdependencies of a particular region with a closer and further surrounding. Discovering and exploiting regional endogenous potentials cannot only be coupled with smart specializing. It ought to go along with flexibility of regional structures in order to more efficiently cushion and more creatively deal with changes going on outside of a region. The main aim of the paper is to present a methodology to evaluate the regional efficiency of the EU Cohesion Policy in the various development scenarios which might be crucial for the decision-makers both on the national and regional level in the upcoming 2014-2020 EU financial framework. The methodology is a fusion of the foresight method with the HERMIN macromodelling framework. This methodological combination will be highlighted using an example of the Polish NUTS-2 region of Warminsko-Mazurskie. Firstly, in the research process major tendencies in the global, European and national environment of the region will be sketched. Emphasis is to be put upon an analysis of closer and broader context conditions for the regional growth including possible macroeconomic, social, demographic, political, environmental, institutional, technological and policy-based ones. It will enable us to set up the most extreme conditions for regional development. The space between the two extremes will be filled up with a number of more likely scenarios providing us with the comprehensive context to carefully and thoroughly analyze regional specifics and regional growth scenarios. Secondly, a counter-factual analysis of the Cohesion Policy impact on the growth of Warminsko-Mazurskie will be carried out. The research tool to be used will be macroeconomic HERMIN model for the economy of Warmiñsko-Mazurskie. HERMIN modelling framework is an established methodology which is applied both to forecast/foresight analyses and counter-factual ones. Along with other 15 regional models and HERMIN model for Poland it belongs to the system of HERMIN models for Poland. The outcome will enable us to analyze and compare impacts of Cohesion Policy on regional socio-economic development in different scenarios that are more or less likely to occur.
    Keywords: macroeconomic modelling; foresight; cohesion policy
    Date: 2014–11
  37. By: Tiiu Paas (University of Tartu); Mart Kaska (University of Tartu, Estonia)
    Abstract: The paper focuses on examining cross-border labour mobility between the neighbouring countries looking for the answer to the question whether cross-border labour mobility can pursue win-win expectations of increasing international labour movement after the EU eastward enlargement. The aim of the paper is to outline differences in the socio-demographic and employment characteristics of Estonian people who have worked in a neighbouring country – Finland and Sweden (East-West mobility) and Latvia or Russia (East-East mobility). The results of the study show that the possible consequences of cross-border labour mobility are twofold. Cross-border labour mobility can support economic development of both source and target country but also generate some threats of brain waste taking into account the sharp increase of lower-skilled jobs of people who are working in economically well-developed neighbouring countries.
    Keywords: geographic labour mobility, neighbouring countries, cross-country labour flows, East-West and East-East mobility, Estonia
    JEL: J61 O57 R23 P52
    Date: 2014–11

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