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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Serkan Çiçek (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Rumen Dobrinsky (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Vladimir Gligorov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Doris Hanzl-Weiss (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Peter Havlik (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Mario Holzner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Gabor Hunya (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sebastian Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Olga Pindyuk (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Leon Podkaminer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sandor Richter (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Hermine Vidovic (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Summary Despite near stagnation in the euro area and the negative impact of the Ukraine crisis, in most of the NMS economies and some of the Western Balkan countries growth prospects are viewed as positive. While the NMS economies will preserve their positive growth differential vis-à-vis the EU-28, Russia and Ukraine are facing a deterioration of their economic performance. External factors have had a major impact on growth performance in the CESEE region. Financial transfers from the EU have lent essential support to economic growth in the European Union’s new Member States (NMS). Investment and operational costs funded via those transfers have become an integral and increasingly important part of aggregate demand in the NMS economies. 2013 and 2014 have been among the strongest years in terms of transfers in the framework of the EU cohesion policy. Their impact is comparable to that of fiscal stimuli, albeit better inasmuch as they do not give rise to new debt. A possible disadvantage compared to classic fiscal stimuli is that transfers have no steerable relation to business cycles. In the eastern part of the CESEE region, the Ukraine conflict has had a pronounced negative impact on economic growth. 25 years after the fall of the Iron Curtain, the current crisis in relations between Russia and the West is evolving into a dangerous geopolitical conflict. In Ukraine, the main victim of the conflict, the economy may decline by 8% over the current year. In Russia, the costs of the conflict are estimated to be to the tune of about 1% of GDP, primarily on account of increased investment risks and the financial sanctions. The impact on the individual EU countries differs according to their exposure to the Russian market. The Baltic States and some other NMS will be those most affected on account of their trade channels with estimated losses in the order of up to 0.4% of GDP. The global financial crisis has shattered the rapid expansion of financial intermediation in nearly all of the countries in the region; recovery of crediting activities is still fragmentary and weak. High levels of non-performing loans are a major concern throughout much of the region. There seems to be a justified concern over the region having entered a period of ‘creditless recovery’ which threatens to be much slower than a recovery with strong credit growth. The outlook for GDP growth in the CESEE region is again fairly diversified. Compared to 2013, the growth performance is expected to improve in twelve and deteriorate in nine of the twenty-one countries in the region in 2014. The general medium-term trend for the NMS as a whole is seen to be positive in most of these countries, we expect a gradual acceleration of GDP growth; exceptions are Hungary and Slovenia where a deceleration is forecast, and Poland where the relatively high GDP growth rate will remain practically unchanged. For the current year, the assumption is that the NMS will grow by 1.8 percentage points higher than expansion in the euro area and 1.3 pp above the EU-28 average. In 2015, the gap in favour of NMS growth performance will become somewhat narrower 1.5 pp relative to the euro area and 1.1 pp to the EU-28 average. For some of the countries in the Western Balkans, growth prospects will only improve over the period 2015-2016, closely related to the damage caused by the floods this summer. Turkey will continue to register remarkable economic growth. Growth performance in Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine will worsen in the current year compared to 2013; the medium-term outlook in Russia and Ukraine is, depending on the evolution of the political crisis, fairly uncertain with considerable downward risks. As for our forecasts for 2015 and 2016, a further weakening of performance in the euro area poses a downward risk, while a longer lasting drop in oil prices will represent an upward risk, except for energy exporters Russia and Kazakhstan. |
| Keywords: | Central and East European new EU Member States, Southeast Europe, Balkans, Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Turkey, economic forecasts, employment, foreign trade, competitiveness, debt, financial crisis, deleveraging, exchange rates, fiscal consolidation, Ukraine conflict |
| JEL: | C33 C50 E20 E29 F34 G01 G18 O52 O57 P24 P27 P33 P52 |
| Date: | 2014–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:fpaper:fc:autumn2014&r=tra |
| By: | Zhang, Jian; Vialle, Pierre |
| Abstract: | Founded in 1987 as a sales agent of PBX (private branch exchange), Huawei has become one of the world's leaders in the ICT Industry. It initially had little technological and management knowledge, but competed with the incumbents including Sino-foreign joint ventures (JVs), state-owned firms, and foreign vendors. In 2013, Huawei has become the world's largest telecom network infrastructure vendor. It operates business in more than 140 countries, and foreign markets represent two thirds of its revenue. It is one of a few vendors able to provide end-to-end telecommunications equipment and solutions. 44% of the 140,000 employees are R&D engineers, and 10% to 20% of its annual revenue is invested in R&D. In a recently published analysis of patents 'Patent Power 2012' by IEEE Spectrum, Huawei is the only Asian firm in the top 20 in communication/internet equipment category. As other Chinese firms, Huawei has benefitted from specific country factors, and in particular from the impact of policies. The Chinese public policy has skilfully used inter-organisational relationships and networks in order to develop a Chinese 'knowledge pool' with worldwide connections (Vialle 2007, 2009). the development of the University system, the close links between research centres and industry, the development of JVs, and focused research projects, have created a system which is not only able to acquire, produce and diffuse publicly available and rather codified knowledge, but also to convert tacit knowledge endogenously generated by industrial activity into a more codified form. One benefit for Chinese Telecom companies has been the large availability of relatively cheap qualified manpower. |
| Keywords: | Huawei,China,Telecommunications,catching-up,latecomer |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itse14:101379&r=tra |
| By: | Ce Wang; Hua Liao; Su-Yan Pan; Lu-Tao Zhao; Yi-Ming Wei (Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEP), Beijing Institute of Technology) |
| Abstract: | The fluctuations of China's energy intensity have attracted the attention of many scholars, but fewer studies consider the data quality of official input-output tables. This paper conducts a decomposition model by using the Divisia method based on the input-output tables. Because of the problems with input-output tables and price deflators, we first produce constant prices to deflate the input-output tables. And then we consider different levels of biased technical change for different sectors in the adjusting the input-output table. Finally, we use RAS technique to adjust input-output matrix. Then the decomposition model is employed to empirically analyze the change of China's energy intensity. We compare the decomposition results with and without biased technical change and do sensitive analysis on the level of biased technical change. The conclusions are that during 2002-2007, except crude oil and refined oil, the energy intensity increased and the changes were mostly attributed to the structural change, while the changes in the production technology actually decreased the energy intensity. Furthermore, compared to the decomposition without biased technical change, the degree of the influence from structural change on the changes in energy intensity depends on the level of biased technical change. |
| Keywords: | Biased Technical Change, Divisia Decomposition, Input-Output Analysis, Energy Intensity, China, RAS Technique |
| JEL: | Q40 |
| Date: | 2014–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:biw:wpaper:56&r=tra |
| By: | Zhao, Xueting; Burnett, J. Wesley; Lacombe, Donald J. |
| Abstract: | This study offers a unique contribution to the literature by investigating the convergence of province-level carbon dioxide emission intensity among a panel of 30 provinces in China over the period 1990-2010. We use a novel, spatial dynamic panel data model to evaluate an empirically testable hypothesis of convergence among provinces. Our results suggest that: (1) CO2 emission intensities are converging across provinces in China; (2) the rate of convergence is higher with the dynamic panel data model than the cross-sectional regression models; and, (3) province-level CO2 emission intensities are spatially correlated and the rate of convergence, when controlling for spatial autocorrelation, is higher than with the non-spatial models. |
| Keywords: | CO2 emission intensity, Convergence, Spatial dynamic panel data, China, Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, C40, Q4, Q54, Q56, R11, |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea14:169403&r=tra |
| By: | Cuong Le Van (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris, VCREME - VanXuan Center of Research in Economics, Management and Environment - VanXuan Center of Research in Economics, Management and Environment); Anh Ngoc Nguyen (DEPOCEN - Development and Policies Research Center); Ngoc-Minh Nguyen (DEPOCEN - Development and Policies Research Center) |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of social capital in both simple theoretical and empirical model with the main assumption is the price of physical capital is a decreasing function of social capital. In our theoretical model, there exists a critical value such that firm will not invest in social capital if its saving is lower than the critical value and otherwise. Moreover, the output depends positively and non-linearly on the social capital. Our empirical model that captures the impact of physical capital, human capital, and social capital using the database from Survey of Small and Medium Scale Manufacturing Enterprises (SMEs) in Vietnam 2011, confirms the conclusions of the theoretical model. |
| Keywords: | Social capital; optimal growth |
| Date: | 2014–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01021376&r=tra |
| By: | Martin Pospíšil (CERGE-EI, Charles University, Prague); Jiøí Schwarz (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nábreží 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we use balance-sheet data and information on bankruptcy to study the relationship between investment, financial constraints, and bankruptcy in a posttransition country. Our data constitute a dynamic panel and cover the period 2006–2011, which also allows us to study the impact of the 2008 crisis on Czech companies. Using investment–cash flow sensitivity to analyze financial constraints we find there is robust evidence that cash flow and the level of debt have a positive and significant impact on the investment rate. By taking a closer look at individual subsamples we reveal that the existence of financial constraints, proxied by investment–cash flow sensitivity, is evident mainly after 2008 and in small and medium-sized enterprises. At the same time, we do not uncover any evidence that firms going bankrupt during our observed period faced more severe financial constraints. Moreover, companies going bankrupt had significantly higher levels of external debt and bank loans, which indicates that they may have been, in fact, less constrained than others. |
| Keywords: | bankruptcy, cash flow, credit rationing, financial constraints, investment, post-transition economy |
| JEL: | D22 D92 E22 G32 |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2014_12&r=tra |
| By: | Holst, Carsten; von Cramon-Taubdel, Stephan |
| Abstract: | The accession of ten countries to the EU in May 2004, and of Bulgaria and Romania in January 2007, eliminated barriers to trade between old and new, and among new member states. We analyse the effects of this accession on the integration of pork markets in the EU. Our results show that the speed of price transmission is positively related to the volume of pork trade between two countries. Our results also reveal that intra-regional price transmission between old or between new member states is more rapid than inter-regional price transmission between old and new member states, and that producer prices in the new member states adjust more rapidly to price changes in the old member states than vice versa. Price transmission is also more rapid between Euro-zone members and member states that share a common border. Finally, our results show that the strengths of these effects have changed in predictable ways in the years since accession took place, as a single, increasingly integrated European pork market has evolved. |
| Keywords: | spatial price transmission, market integration, cointegration, European pork market, International Relations/Trade, Marketing, |
| Date: | 2014–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi14:187598&r=tra |
| By: | Lenka Šastná (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nábreží 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic); Jana Votápková (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nábreží 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | The paper estimates cost efficiency of 81 general hospitals in the Czech Republic during 2006-2010. We employ the conditional order-m approach which is a nonparametric method for efficiency computation accounting for environmental variables. E ffects of environmental variables are assessed using the non-parametric signicance test and partial regression plots. We find not-for-prot ownership and a presence of a specialized center in a hospital to be detrimental to hospital performance in the group of small and medium hospitals, while not-for-prot ownership is favorable to eciency for big hospitals. Generally, hospital performance gets worse in period 2009-2010 because additional revenues received in form of user charges which were introduced in 2008 increase spending of hospitals. Only big hospitals proved to take some cost-saving measures as a reaction to nancial crisis. |
| Keywords: | Efficiency, hospitals, conditional order-m FDH, Czech Republic |
| JEL: | D24 I11 |
| Date: | 2014–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2014_31&r=tra |
| By: | Ongena, Steven; Schindele, Ibolya; Vonnák, Dzsamila |
| Abstract: | We analyze the differential impact of domestic and foreign monetary policy on the local supply of bank credit in domestic and foreign currencies. We analyze a novel, supervisory dataset from Hungary that records all bank lending to firms including its currency denomination. Accounting for time-varying firm-specific heterogeneity in loan demand, we find that a lower domestic interest rate expands the supply of credit in the domestic but not in the foreign currency. A lower foreign interest rate on the other hand expands lending by lowly versus highly capitalized banks relatively more in the foreign than in the domestic currency. |
| Keywords: | Bank balance-sheet channel,monetary policy,foreign currency lending |
| JEL: | E51 F3 G21 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cfswop:474&r=tra |
| By: | Alisher Aldashev (International School of Economics, Almaty); Alexander M. Danzer (Ludwig-Maximilians-University, Munich) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the economic returns to language skills and bilingualism. The analysis is staged in Kazakhstan, a multi-ethnic country with complex ethnic settlement patterns that has switched its official state language from Russian to Kazakh. Using two newly assembled data sets, we find negative returns to speaking Kazakh and a negative effect of bilingualism on earnings while Russian was the official state language in the 1990s. Surprisingly, the Kazakh language continues to yield a negative wage premium 13 years after it has been made official state language. While we do neither find evidence for an ethnically segmented labor market nor for reverse causality, the low economic value of the Kazakh language can be explained by the comparatively poor quality of schools with Kazakh as language of instruction. Based on PISA data, we illustrate that scholastic achievements are substantially lower for pupils taught in Kazakh, despite the official support for the titular language. Our results suggest that switching the official state language without appropriate investments in school resources is unlikely to cure the economic disadvantage of a previously marginalized language. |
| Keywords: | Bilingualism, returns to language skills, wage premium, language policy, language of instruction |
| JEL: | J24 I21 P23 O15 |
| Date: | 2014–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:1440&r=tra |
| By: | Tran, Minh Chau; Gan, Prof Christopher; Hu, Baiding |
| Abstract: | This study aims at identifying factors affecting formal credit constraint status of rural farm households in Vietnam’s North Central Coast region (NCC). Using the Direct Elicitation method (DEM), we consider both internal and external credit rationing. Empirical evidences confirm the importance of household head’s age, gender and education to household’s likelihood of being credit constrained. In addition, households who have advantages in farm land size, labour resources and non-farm income are less likely to be credit constrained. Poor households are observed to remain restricted by formal credit institutions. Results from the Endogenous Switching Regression model suggest that credit constraints have negative impact on household’s consumption per capita and informal credit can act as a substitute to mitigate the negative influence of formal credit constraints. |
| Keywords: | Credit constraint, determinants, impact, welfare, rural households, Agribusiness, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Consumer/Household Economics, International Development, |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:nzar14:187495&r=tra |
| By: | Horváth, Roman; Maršál, Aleš |
| Abstract: | We lay out a small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with Markov switching to study the term structure of interest rates. We extend the previous models by opening up the economy and adding a foreign demand channel. As a result, we explain the term structure of Czech interest rates and that the open economy version of the model fits reasonably well the period after the adoption of inflation targeting, which was characterized by two regimes: 1) a disinflation regime and 2) a price stability regime. |
| Keywords: | DSGE small open economy model,term structure of interest rates,regime switching |
| JEL: | G12 E17 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fmpwps:22&r=tra |
| By: | Waidler J.; Hagen-Zanker J.S.; Gassmann F.; Siegel M. (UNU-MERIT) |
| Abstract: | Do remittances and social assistance have different impacts on household expenditure patterns While two separate strands of literature have looked at how social assistance or remittances have been spent, few studies have compared them directly. Using data from a nationally representative household survey conducted in Moldova in 2011, this paper assesses the impact both types of transfers have on household expenditure patterns. Contrary to the common assumption that money is fungible, we find that social assistance and remittances have different impacts on expenditure patterns having controlled for potential endogeneity. This research highlights that income source matters and that different incomes may have different poverty impacts. In our sample, the two types of transfers are received by different, but to some extent overlapping population groups. The fact that the two transfers are spent in different ways means that, to some extent, social assistance and remittances are complements rather than substitutes. |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomics: Consumption; Saving; Wealth; International Migration; Remittances; National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General; Measurement and Analysis of Poverty; Welfare and Poverty: Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs; Demographic Economics: Public Policy; |
| JEL: | F22 F24 J18 I32 I38 E21 H50 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2014072&r=tra |
| By: | Bakucs, Lajos Zoltan |
| Abstract: | The main purpose of this research is the comparative analysis of overall HCPI and food inflation rates’ regional convergence between the European Monetary Union and New Member States (NMS) using both aggregated and disaggregated data from January 2000 until December 2013. Although there exist now a wealth of empirical papers with respect to inflation convergence, NMS were somewhat neglected, more, research highlighted that many results suffer from inappropriate methodology and data aggregation problems. There are a number of theoretical and policy implications with respect to divergence of inflation rates in a monetary union. For NMS, (overall and food) inflation rate convergence is important on one hand because of the desire to meet Maastricht euro convergence criteria and on the other, from consumers’ welfare point of view. The food basket expenditure as part of disposable income is still significantly higher for NMS consumers that those in ‘old’ EU member states. One of the main novelties of this paper is that it derives conclusions by employing a dataset that covers a politically, socially and none-the-less economically extremely interesting period: from before the EU accession, through the global financial crisis, price spike the adoption of Euro in some NMS, and finally the adherence of the newest NMS, Croatia. There is some evidence that after an initial, pre- and post EU accession convergence process, the financial crises together with the agricultural and food commodity price surge (price spike) did not halt, but diversified the convergence process of NMS. |
| Keywords: | inflation rate convergence, food inflation, European Union, New Member States, unit root tests, Agricultural and Food Policy, |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea14:170574&r=tra |